IntroductionOver the years, several prognostic models were developed in patients receiving chemotherapy for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), while data on androgen-receptor signaling inhibitors (ARSI) in a real-world setting are limited. Patients and methodsWe compared a consecutive series of 565 mCRPC patients receiving first-line ARSI at four high-volume Italian Centers (development set) to an external series of 180 patients receiving the same treatment at another Italian high-volume Center (training set), between 2011 and 2022.Sixteen clinical and baseline laboratory variables were selected to develop a prognostic model. Patients were categorized into risk groups according to the number of independent factors positively associated with overall survival (OS). ResultsIn the development cohort, after a median follow-up of 21.1 months, the median OS was 30.4 months (95% CI 27.5-33.4). At the multivariate analysis, seven variables [age, prostate specific antigen (PSA) doubling time, baseline levels of hemoglobin, PSA, time to castration resistance, ECOG PS and bone metastases number) were included into the final model.The median OS was 13.4, 25.7 and 46.4 months in poor (0-2 factors), intermediate (3-4 factors) and good (≥5 factors) prognosis group, respectively.The application of the model to the validation set confirmed its ability to prognosticate for OS. The model c-indexes were 0.68 (95% CI 0.64-0.72) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.68–0.81) in the development and validation cohort, respectively. ConclusionsOur model, based on clinical and laboratory variables readily assessable in clinical practice, might prognosticate the OS of mCRPC patients receiving first-line ARSI. Micro AbstractA retrospective study comparing a development to a validation cohort of mCRPC patients receiving ARSI found a new prognostic model. It included seven clinical and baseline laboratory variables and confirmed its ability to prognosticate for OS.
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