Mood Proxy Research Articles

Psychometric Properties of a Novel Affective Bias Task and Its Application in Clinical and Nonclinical Populations

To mitigate limitations of self-reported mood assessments, we introduce a novel affective bias task. The task quantifies instantaneous emotional state by leveraging the phenomenon of affective bias, in which people interpret external emotional stimuli in a manner consistent with their current emotional state. This study establishes task stability in measuring and tracking depressive symptoms in clinical and nonclinical populations. Initial assessment in a large nonclinical sample established normative ratings. Depressive symptoms were measured and compared with task performance in a nonclinical sample, as well as in a clinical cohort of individuals who were undergoing surgical evaluation for severe epilepsy. In both cohorts, a stronger negative affective bias was associated with a higher Beck Depression Inventory-II score. The affective bias task exhibited high stability and interrater reliability as well as construct validity in predicting depression levels in both cohorts, suggesting that the task is a reliable proxy for mood and a diagnostic tool for detecting depressive symptoms.

Affect as a proxy for literary mood

We propose to use affect as a proxy for mood in literary texts. In this study, we explore the differences in computationally detecting tone versus detecting mood. Methodologically we utilize affective word embeddings to look at the affective distribution in different text segments. We also present a simple yet efficient and effective method of enhancing emotion lexicons to take both semantic shift and the domain of the text into account producing real-world congruent results closely matching both contemporary and modern qualitative analyses.

No mood effects in the field: The case of car inspections

We study mood effect in the field to measure its economic impact and address shortcomings in the existing literature, which typically uses one single mood proxy and ignores selection effects. Using over 50 million car inspections in Sweden and England and multiple mood proxies, we study whether car inspectors are more lenient on good mood days and if car owners self-select into those days. We find evidence of a “Friday effect” in England and a small selection bias, but no support for consistent mood effect. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the expectations of rational actors who may exploit mood effect and the need to study mood in the field using different settings and multiple proxies to avoid hasty conclusions.

Association between use of psychotropic medications prior to SARS-COV-2 infection and trajectories of COVID-19 recovery: Findings from the prospective Predi-COVID cohort study.

Psychological disturbances are frequent following COVID-19. However, there is not much information about whether pre-existing psychological disorders are associated with the severity and evolution of COVID-19. We aimed to explore the associations between regular psychotropic medication use (PM) before infection as a proxy for mood or anxiety disorders with COVID-19 recovery trajectories. We used data from the Predi-COVID study. We followed adults, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and collected demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities and daily symptoms 14 days after inclusion. We calculated a score based on 16 symptoms and modeled latent class trajectories. We performed polynomial logistic regression with PM as primary exposure and the different trajectories as outcome. We included 791 participants, 51% were men, and 5.3% reported regular PM before infection. We identified four trajectories characterizing recovery dynamics: "Almost asymptomatic," "Quick recovery," "Slow recovery," and "Persisting symptoms". With a fully adjusted model for age, sex, socioeconomic, lifestyle and comorbidity, we observed associations between PM with the risks of being in more severe trajectories than "Almost Asymptomatic": "Quick recovery" (relative risk (95% confidence intervals) 3.1 (2.7, 3.4), "Slow recovery" 5.2 (3.0, 9.2), and "Persisting symptoms"11.7 (6.9, 19.6) trajectories. We observed a gradient of risk between PM before the infection and the risk of slow or no recovery in the first 14 days. These results suggest that a pre-existing psychological condition increases the risk of a poorer evolution of COVID-19 and may increase the risk of Long COVID. Our findings can help to personalize the care of people with COVID-19.

Too gloomy to invest: Weather-induced mood and crowdfunding

Do investors' moods influence their contributions to risky investments in equity crowdfunding? Yes. We use cloud cover as a proxy for mood because besides serving as powerful mood stimulus, changes in weather are plausibly exogenous and orthogonal to attributes of crowdfunding campaigns, yielding an advantageous identification strategy. Our results, based on data from Companisto – one of the largest European equity crowdfunding platforms, indicate that change in sky cloud cover from zero to full reduces each investor's contribution amount by about 10–15% (across different specifications). Our paper highlights the broader role of financiers' moods and emotions in providing valuable financial resources to entrepreneurs.

Weather-Induced Mood and Crowdfunding

Do investors' moods influence their contributions to risky investments in equity crowdfunding? Yes. We use weather as a proxy for mood because besides serving as powerful mood stimulus, changes in weather are plausibly exogenous and orthogonal to attributes of crowdfunding campaigns, yielding an advantageous identification strategy. Our results, based on data from Companisto -- one of the largest European equity crowdfunding platforms -- indicate that change in sky cloud cover from zero to full reduces investors' contribution amounts by about 10-15% (across different specifications). Our paper highlights the broader role of financiers' moods and emotions in providing valuable financial resources to entrepreneurs.

DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMATOLOGY PREDICTS WILLINGNESS TO PARTICIPATE IN CLINICAL TRIALS

Despite the recent advances in scientific methodologies, technologies, and knowledge about the neurodegenerative disease process, there haven't been any new treatments approved for AD since 2004. One significant limitation is the lack of available research participants who are willing to participate in clinical trials. Several factors have been cited, such as diagnosis, emotional factors, and lack of knowledge about research. The goal of this study was to assess the willingness of patients to participate in clinical research after a multidisciplinary team evaluation and education about clinical trials. The memory clinic located at PAREXEL Los Angeles Early Phase Clinical Unit is a community-based center that has evaluated approximately 240 patients since its inception in 2016. Patients are referred from a variety of sources to evaluate memory and cognitive function. We offer comprehensive neuropsychological evaluations in multiple languages, using a flexible battery approach depending on the nature of the referral question. For this analysis, we used the Repeatable Battery for Neuropsychological Status Total Scale Score as a measure of global cognitive abilities and the Geriatric Depression Scale as a proxy for mood. At the completion of the evaluation, 126 patients evaluated through the memory clinic were willing to hear about opportunities for research participation versus 19 patients who declined. We found that those who scored higher on the GDS (p<.01) were less willing to learn about opportunities for research participation. Cognitive performance only accounted for 2% of the variance a logistic regression and was not a significant predictor of willingness to participate in research. The results highlight that willingness to participate in research maybe largely mediated by mood factors more so than degree of cognitive impairment. Depressive symptoms in older adults maybe a target of intervention when discussing opportunities about clinical trials in AD.

Mood, firm behavior, and aggregate economic outcomes

This study examines whether mood affects the aggregate state-level macroeconomy through its impact on firm-level decisions. Using sky cloud cover as a proxy for mood, we show that mood affects the economic expectations of small business managers. After relatively sunnier periods, managers have more optimistic expectations, and the component of their expectations related to mood influences hiring and investment decisions. Consequently, mood affects state-level job creation and new business starts, especially during periods of greater economic uncertainty. These results suggest that mood-induced economic expectations influence firm-level managerial decisions and state-level macroeconomic fluctuations.

The Effect of Negative Mood on Industrial Production: First Evidence from Turkish TV Series Finales

This paper analyses the impact of parasocial breakup (PB) on the industrial production performance in Turkey. We employ 139 Turkish TV series finales, broadcasted between 2005 and 2015, as a negative mood proxy. We use the regression analysis with Newey-West standard errors to obtain a more efficient parameter and provide alternative mood proxy dummies and other macroeconomic variables to examine the robustness of the effect of PB on industrial production. The analysis presents robust evidence that the negative mood decreases the workers’ productivity and performance and so industrial production. We also find that the effect of PB on production depends on the types of TV series and the channels they are broadcasted on.

Mood, Firm Behavior, and Aggregate Economic Outcomes

This study examines whether mood affects the aggregate macroeconomy through its impact on firm-level decisions. Motivated by the psychology literature, we use sky-cloud-cover as a mood proxy and show that mood affects the economic expectations of small business managers. On relatively sunnier days, managers have more optimistic expectations and the component of their expectations related to mood influences hiring and investment decisions. As a result, at the aggregate-level, mood affects U.S. state-level job creation and new business starts, especially during periods of greater economic uncertainty. Collectively, these results suggest that mood-induced economic expectations influence firm-level managerial decisions and state-level economic fluctuations.

Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand

We investigate spillover effects from sentiment and mood shocks on US outbound tourism demand from 1996 until 2013. We use the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as proxies for sentiment and the S&P500 as a proxy for mood. We find a moderate to high interrelationship among sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand. More importantly, sentiment and mood indicators are net transmitters of spillover shocks to outbound tourism demand. The magnitude of spillover effects sourced by sentiment and mood is time-varying and depends on certain socio-economic and environmental events. Our results have important implications for policymakers and travel agents in their efforts to predict tourism arrivals from key origin countries and to plan their tourism strategy.

Investor mood and demand for stocks: Evidence from popular TV series finales

In this paper I employ a novel discrete mood proxy to investigate the response of the U.S. stock market to exogenous daily variations in investor mood. Drawing upon the psychology and communication literature, which documents that the end of popular TV series causes negative emotional reactions in large numbers of television viewers, I employ major TV series finales (between 1967 and 2012) as mood-altering events. I find that an increase in the fraction of Americans watching a TV show finale on a given day is immediately followed by a decrease in U.S. stock returns. This effect is stronger in small-cap and high-volatility stocks, whose pricing is more sensitive to sentiment, and is consistent with the hypothesis that negative mood reduces the demand for risky assets.

Investor Sentiment in News and the Calendar Anomaly -- New Evidence from a Large Textual Data --

The well-known stock market adage sell in May and go away arose from long-term stock market seasonality in major financial markets around the globe. Kamastra, Kramer and Levy (2003) present evidence that Seasonal Affective Disorder causes this seasonality, as this condition has a profound effect on people’s mood and makes people increasingly risk averse as daylight diminishes with the onset of winter. In this paper, we present evidence that change in market mood is reflected in the prospect statement in the news text. We employ a text-mining technique to analyze a large quantity of newspaper articles for the period 1986–2010 and created our market mood proxy. We find investor psychology is skewed to optimism in the first half of the calendar year and pessimism in the latter. We also find that semi-annual mood fluctuation is synchronous with market seasonality.

Evaluating the economic impact of national sporting performance: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

This study examines the impact of South Africa’s national soccer, rugby and cricket teams’ performances in international matches on returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Match results constitute a mood proxy variable hypothesised to affect stock returns through its influence on investor mood. The unconditional mean return on the JSE All Share index for a 13½ year period from September 1995 to February 2009 was compared to the mean return after wins, draws and losses by the national sport teams. An event study approach was followed and four different statistical tests were conducted in order to test for a relationship. The results of the tests indicate the existence of a moderate win effect, with mean returns after wins being statistically significantly higher for the categories all sports combined, cricket and soccer.

Effect of wind on stock market returns: evidence from European markets

Environmental psychology studies have found evidence that wind speed has a strong influence on mood and comfort. This study investigated the relationship between wind speed and daily stock market returns across 18 European countries from 1994 to 2004. A significant and pervasive wind effect was found on stock returns. This finding was supported by psychological literature claiming that mood affects judgement and decision-making in situations involving uncertainty and risk, and coincides with the argument of misattribution. This investigation also found strong seasonality effect and temperature effect in European stock markets. Specifically, the influence of wind on stock returns is demonstrated to be more significant than that of sunlight, indicating that wind might exert a stronger impact on mood than sunshine and hence be a better proxy for mood than sunshine. Above all, our findings contradict the rational asset-pricing hypothesis and contribute to the behavioural finance literature.

Mood and UK equity pricing

We investigate the relationship between mood and UK equity pricing. Seven variables that are argued to proxy for mood are tested, including four weather variables (temperature, precipitation, wind speed and geomagnetic storms), and three biorhythm variables (Seasonal Affective Disorder, Daylight Savings Time Changes and lunar phases). Using GARCH specifications of the equity indices, and multiple constructs of each of the mood-proxy variables, we find evidence of a relationship between UK equity pricing and high temperatures and wind speed. However, the results are generally unfavourable towards a conclusion that investor mood influences aggregate UK equity pricing.

Mood and UK Equity Pricing

We investigate the relationship between mood and UK equity pricing. Seven variables that are argued to proxy for mood are tested, including four weather variables (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and geomagnetic storms), and three biorhythm variables (Seasonal Affective Disorder, Daylight Savings Time Changes, and lunar phases). Using GARCH specifications of the equity indices, and multiple constructs of each of the mood-proxy variables, we find evidence of a relationship between UK equity pricing and high temperatures and wind speed. However, the results are generally unfavourable towards a conclusion that investor mood influences aggregate UK equity pricing.

Stock Returns and Economically Neutral Behavioural Variables Relationship in the Nepalese Stock Market

In this paper we extend the research on the relationship between economically neutral behavioural variables and stock returns documented in Saunders (1993), Hirshleifer and Shumway (2003), Cao and Wei (2004, 2005) and Kamstra, Kramer and Levi (2003) by examining a stock market of a single small developing country (Nepal), Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE), that have received little attention in the literature. In particular we focus on three mood proxy variables, all continuous: two are the weather variables (cloud cover and temperature) and third one is a biorhythm variable (SAD). The results of our study showed that there is significant relationship (positive) between stock returns and economically neutral behavioural variable represented by the cloud cover. This finding is inconsistent to that reported by Saunders (1993) and Hirshleifer and Shumway (2003) who observed significant negative relationship between stock returns and Cloud cover. With respect to temperature and SAD variable we do not observe such significant relationship. These results are also inconsistent to the findings documented in Cao and Wei (2004, 2005) and Kamstra et al (2003) who reported the significantly negative relationship between stock returns and temperature and positive and significant relationship between stock returns and SAD variable respectively. Interestingly, our findings are however consistent for subperiod (the exception is first sample period) and for one of the industrial index, we examine. The overall results lead to the conclusion that Nepalese stock market is not efficient in the weak form of efficiency.

Are Weather Induced Moods Priced in Global Equity Markets?

Recent research in behavioural finance has tested for evidence of mood misattribution influencing investor decision-making. The approach adopted is to test for a relationship between widely experienced mood proxy variables and equity returns. Variables ranging from weather, to Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), to sporting events, amongst other variables, have all been used in the process of these investigations. This paper conducts a comprehensive, econometrically robust, analysis of the influence of mood proxy variables across a global range of 37 equity market indices and 22 small cap indices. Our study combines key mood proxy variables tested in a range of previous papers in one study. We specifically test for SAD, Daylight Savings Time Changes, lunar, and geomagnetic effects. Only SAD appears to have any effect, worldwide.

Weather, biorhythms, beliefs and stock returns—Some preliminary Irish evidence

We investigate whether there exists a relationship between eight proxy variables for investor mood (based on the weather, biorhythms, and beliefs) and daily Irish stock returns over the period 1988 to 2001. Our study is motivated by recent research that argues that people's decisions are influenced by their feelings, especially when the decision involves risk and uncertainty [e.g., Psychol. Bull. 127 (2001) 267–286]. We find that some of the variables proposed in the literature (rain and time changes around daylight savings) are minor but significant influences. We also find preliminary evidence for the relationship between mood proxy variables and equity returns being more pronounced in times of positive recent market performance. This finding is consistent with psychological research showing that people in a good mood (in this case, because of presumed gains in their investment portfolios) are more likely to allow irrelevant mood factors to influence their decision making [e.g., Mackie, D. M., & Worth, L. T. (1991). Feeling good, but not thinking straight: The impact of positive mood on persuasion. In: Forgas, J. P. (Ed.), Emotion and Social Judgments (pp. 201–219). Oxford: Pergamon Press].