Provincial Elections Research Articles

A Geometric Model of Elections in Five Federal Democracies

Abstract In an analysis of 1,825 state or provincial election outcomes in five federal democracies the rate of decay of incumbency (K) serves to partition the distribution of the vote for the incumbent party, the party of the head of government, between those who win a subsequent term and those who do not. In conjunction with the mean and standard deviation of the distribution, the weighted mean of the vote in re-election and defeat is identified. The model’s predictions are generally within 2–3 percentage points of the actual outcome.

Pendampingan Penyusunan Kajian Lingkungan Hidup Strategis sebagai Dasar dalam Pembangunan Berkelanjutan di Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) are agreed-upon common goals that must be met by all nations by 2030. Efforts to meet the SDG targets are a national development priority that necessitates the coordination of planning policies at the national and regional levels. In Central Kalimantan, the provincial and district/city governments are currently preparing various Strategic Environmental Assessment documents (SEA). The goal of this activity is to increase the working group's and experts' understanding of the principles of sustainable development that have become the basis and integrated into the development of a region, so that they can provide recommendations for environmental considerations at the strategic decision-making level, particularly after the 2024 joint national and provincial election. It has been carried out to reduce the obstacles that have previously been a problem by providing technical guidance on various tools for preparing and validating SEA. Following the training, it was discovered that the understanding and mastery of district/city working groups and university experts could improve compared to before the assistance series.

Assessing service delivery, user satisfaction, and local governance dynamics: A comprehensive study in Kirtipur Municipality

The 2017 local and provincial elections in Nepal marked a pivotal moment, instilling renewed optimism and positivity among the populace. The establishment of seven provinces, 293 municipalities and 460 rural municipalities, was orchestrated to decentralize governance, eliciting expectations for improved efficacy in local service delivery. This study, conducted through field research and utilizing the People Report Card (PRC) methodology in the Kirtipur municipality, investigates the dynamics of service delivery, user satisfaction, and perceptions of local governance. The research results reveal a moderate public perception of local governance, underscoring particular domains that necessitate enhancement to elevate overall satisfaction levels and instill greater confidence among the populace. Authorities are urged to address service- related challenges through targeted interventions, promoting transparency and responsiveness in governance to improve the welfare of the Kirtipur Municipality.

Organizational Structure and Human Resources Management at The West Java Provincial Election Supervisory Body

Bawaslu as a state auxilarry bodies, in charge of election supervision affairs must certainly have a good institutional structure from the central level to the Regency/City level, especially the target of this study, namely Bawaslu Provinsi Jawa. The purpose of this study is to analyze the management or governance of Bawaslu institutions within West Java Province and the management of Bawaslu human resources in West Java Province in improving employee performance. The method used is qualitative-descriptive. The results showed that Bawaslu of West Java Province must improve the secretariat status of each Regency/City to strengthen the institutional structure and increase the competence of human resources.

The Netherlands: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractThe Dutch political landscape is notoriously unpredictable; yet, 2023 was the most turbulent year in Dutch politics in at least two decades. The year featured two elections—provincial and national—within nine months, each dominated by two distinct issues: agriculture and migration. These elections saw two different populist parties triumph with significant margins: the FarmerCitizenMovement/BoerBurgerBeweging won the provincial elections, while the radical right‐wing populist Party for Freedom/Partij voor de Vrijheid secured a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections. Moreover, the year witnessed the collapse of the centre‐right cabinet and leadership changes in more than half of the parties represented in parliament.

Electoral Politics during 1951 Provincial Elections in the Punjab: A Progression of Authoritarian Legacy

This research paper explored electoral patterns in the Punjab after independence focusing on the first provincial elections of Punjab. Did the voters have any real choice? How was the religion card employed in the absence of non-Muslims? And how important were ethnic and geographical affiliations in a newly independent, conventional Punjab. How fluidity of displaced people affected the electoral behaviour and results. These important inquiries have important implications for the present scenario. Muslim League became a major political party and incumbent government during the early years of independence. The provincial election helped its splinter groups into new political parties. Victimhood, blaming, national unity, and the Kashmir issue were top trends in campaign rhetoric. Rural election campaigns focused on biradri, clan or village heads. Both male and female voter registration and vote casting still needed to improve. Muslim League was accused of using officials and rigging. Research noticed that the electoral reforms improved the election process while acceptance of election results could not make its place. Press lacked objectivity and the government imposed censorship on its critics. The Punjabi electors voted Muslim League as well as opposition with conventional thinking rejecting radical call against Muslim League, popular at that time in East Bengal. This article contributes to understanding early electoral behaviour of Punjab, particularly and the present scenario of elections in both Punjab and Pakistan in general.

Understanding the political durability of Doug Ford’s market populism

The Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) Party expanded its legislative majority in the June 2022 provincial election despite difficulties in managing the COVID-19 pandemic and seeming public apathy towards its government. We find that the PC’s durability can be attributed to a discourse of “market populism” that rhetorically addresses Ontario’s transition to a service-based economy, and the failure of institutional alternatives to present compelling counterhegemonic discourses. Elements of potentially more effective counterhegemonic discourses are discussed.

КВЕБЕКСКАЯ ПРОБЛЕМА В СОВРЕМЕННОЙ КАНАДЕ: ПРОШЛОЕ ИЛИ НАСТОЯЩЕЕ?

This article deals with an analysis of the Quebec issue in Modern Canada. Based on the necessary corpus of sources and the corresponding historiography, the author tries to answer the question whether the Quebec issue is relevant for Canada in the present or it has remained in the past forever. In his article, the author not only summarizes and systematizes the history of the French-Canadian issue itself, but also analyzes the activities of the Parti Québécois and the Bloc Québécois, which have been fighting for Quebec sovereignty for many years. He emphasizes that it was with these two associations that the idea of Quebec sovereignty was connected, and focuses on the activities of René Lévesque and Jacques Parizeau, who prepared two referendums on the sovereignty of Quebec. The study results in the conclusion that at the party-political level (due to the change in the party ideology of the Bloc Québécois and the failure of the Parti Québécois in the 2018 provincial elections), of course, the idea of sovereignty has become a thing of the past. While at the mental level (the memory of the historical trauma of the 60s in the 18th century, when new France was conquered by England), the idea of sovereignty meets the interests of part of the French-Canadian community.

Female’s Participation through First-Past-the-Post Electoral System in Provincial Election of Nepal

An election produces changes in the socio-cultural arena. The gender gap is commonly used in politics to indicate voting preferences and level of participation during pre-electoral, electoral and post-electoral activities. Gender gap creates obstacles in every step of gender mainstreaming. This article was prepared based on secondary data from the election commission, Nepal (ECN). To assess the status of female’s participation and to identify causes and measures of the gender gap in the provincial level first-past-the-post electoral system, this article was prepared as the title female’s participation through first-past-the-post electoral system in the provincial election of Nepal. A simple literature review was conducted to collect essential information to meet the objective. The status of female’s participation is found low at the provincial level first-past-the-post electoral system in Nepal. There were few numbers of nominate female candidates and elected female candidates in all 7 provinces. In Karnali province, even a single female candidate can’t win the race. To meet the national commitment in gender mainstreaming and to fulfill the target of sustainable development goals, all political parties must perform effective policy to increase the number of female candidates. Through politics, women can realize discrimination and destitution over them. Active participation of women in politics boosts up their roles as voters, candidates, elected officials, electoral administrators, observers, civil society representatives, etc. All barriers regarding female participation in politics must be corrected by concerned authorities as soon as possible with the visionary and coordinating leadership of the local, provincial, and federal government.

Quebec Provincial Elections in 2018 and 2022 and Their Influence on the Development of the French Speaking Province

Quebec Provincial Elections in 2018 and 2022 and Their Influence on the Development of the French Speaking Province

Coalition Avenir Québec’s Politics: Autonomism, Nationalism and Pragmatism

The article deals with the mainstreams of Quebec politics under Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government headed by François Legault (from 2018 to the present). It is noted that the CAQ represents a new political force in provincial politics, offering the québécois society a middle/intermediate path of development between the Liberals (federalists) and the Pequist (supporters of sovereignty). The distinctive features of this path are the desire to strengthen autonomy of Quebec in Canadian Federation, reliance on québécois nationalism, consistent and tough defense of the dominant position of the French language in the province, as well as protection and promotion of Quebec values. At the same time, Legault policy is characterized by pragmatism and a generally balanced approach to socio-economic and environmental issues. The article discusses the Act respecting the laicity of the State (Bill 21) and the Act Respecting French, the Official and Common Language of Quebec (Bill 96), adopted under the CAQ Government. It also highlights the effectiveness of the Legault government’s actions during the COVID-19 pandemic and compares the results of the 2018 and 2022 provincial elections.

DETERMINANTS OF FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGEMENT GRANT FUNDING FINANCE

The management of direct grant funds for regional elections requires streamlined processes within the Provincial Election Supervisory Agency and Regency/City Election Supervisory Committees. Technical Instructions outlined in a 2019 decree guide work plans, budgets, administration, accountability, and reporting. Efforts to prevent fraud in grant management are essential for reliable financial reporting, operational efficiency, auditor confidence, legal compliance, and asset protection. Controls, whether preventive or detective, manual or automatic, play a crucial role in these efforts. This research aims to analyze the Determinants of Fraud Prevention in Financial Management of Grant Funds. The context chosen was the Bawaslu of Jambi Province and the Bawaslu of Districts/Cities throughout Jambi Province, totaling 65 people. The analytical tool used in this research is SMART PLS. The results can be concluded that the competency of the work unit apparatus has no effect on preventing fraud in the financial management of grant funds, the internal control system has an effect on preventing fraud in the financial management of grant funds, Whistleblowing systems have an effect on preventing fraud in the financial management of grant funds.

The Readiness and Necessity of Election of Provincial Governors in Thailand

Objective: To examine the readiness and necessity of election of Provincial Governors in Thailand. Theoretical framework: SWOT Analysis based on Public Administration and Decentralization Concept. Method: Qualitative approach using documentary research on public administration and provincial election. Data was analyzed by content analysis. Results and discussion: In order to organize the system of public administration at provincial level to be effective and achieve the goals, the following issues should be addressed: (1) more delegation of command and decision-making power; (2) the governor should adapt to the role of strategic administrator; (3) the governor should use Integrated Area Development strategy; (4) the governor’s work attitudes should be a work culture of all sectors participation; (5) delegate more power in personnel administration; (6) Budget system focus on provincial development budget; (7)review the authority or mission of provincial authoritative organization and governor to avoid overlapping. Implications of the research: To be use as a guideline in considering of election of provincial governors in Thailand. The advantages and disadvantaged from the findings should be addressed for better decentralization of governmental authority. Originality/value: This research adds the value to the concept of public administration, decentralization approach and governor’s election.

A cruise-and-crash model of the cost of ruling

ABSTRACT Since the publication of Nannestad and Paldam ([1999]. “The Cost of Ruling. A Foundation Stone for Two Theories,” University of Aarhus, Denmark. Working Paper No. 1999-9. http://www.martin.paldam.dk/Papers/Gamle/Cost-of-ruling.PDF.) on the cost of ruling, their finding that incumbents lose votes in the order of 2 to 3 percentage points per term has gained the status of something like an “inductive law” of politics (Budge [2019]. Politics. A Unified Introduction to How Democracy Works. Abingdon/Oxon/New York: Routledge, 2019). We suggest that this generalization conjures up an inaccurate image, that of a gradual reduction of a ruling party’s vote over the course of an incumbency or “spell.” Our own analyses of national and state or provincial elections in Australia, Canada, Germany, and the United States demonstrate that this interpretation is not correct. Instead, while they remain in office the ruling party cruises along, averaging more or less the same share of the vote election after election, until they fail to win another term, at which point all or nearly all of the cost of ruling, like a balloon payment on a loan, comes due. Moreover, on average the magnitude of the loss is independent of the length of their stay in office. This means that a long incumbency confounds the expectations fostered by the “inductive law” because the overall loss – which we find to be reasonably constant across a wide spectrum of data sets – divided by a spell length exponentially distributed from one to many terms cannot be a constant. Nannestad and Paldam's assertion of 2.25 percentage points per term vote loss is at best a description of a mid-range value.

Integrated Knowledge Translation in the Food and Nutrition Security for Manitoba Youth study

Abstract Background There are concerns that many children do not have healthy diets, which may be related to dietary choices as well as lack of access to healthy foods. The Food and Nutrition Security for Manitoba Youth (FANS) study examined diet, nutrition-related behaviours and food security of 1587 grade nine students in Manitoba, Canada. Results show that while one in five students were food insecure, almost all need significant dietary improvements. Engaging stakeholders through multiple communication channels is key to disseminating research outcomes to drive action for policy change. Methods Principles of integrated knowledge translation were followed, including a breadth of dissemination activities, to maximize impact of study results. These included diverse partnerships, academic and non-academic research outputs, and use of media. Results Study partners including academic co-investigators, school authorities, government agencies and non-profit organizations advocating for child nutrition contributed to study design, interpretation and dissemination. Results were published in academic journals, as well as translated into a suite of non-academic outputs including a community report, infographics (circulated on social media), and a searchable data dashboard, available through a web-based portal. This approach allows for tracking of research output downloads, which number over 500 to date. Due to active outreach to traditional media, study results received widespread attention adding to the breadth of knowledge translation methods employed. This also led to uptake by provincial health education curriculum developers. Results will also be circulated during an upcoming provincial election as part of engaging candidates around child nutrition and food security issues and policies. Conclusions This broad approach to integrated knowledge translation has resulted in extensive distribution of FANS study results and has potential to influence public health nutrition policy. Key messages • Integrated knowledge translation and a breadth of dissemination strategies in the FANS study has led to extensive distribution of research outputs and media coverage. • The FANS knowledge portal, with diverse academic and non-academic research outputs including a data dashboard, is strategic for public health nutrition promotion and advocacy.

Strategi Hastag” 2019 Ganti Presiden” Sudrajat-Ahmad Saikhu Dalam Pilkada Jawa Barat 2018

This research analyzes the 2018 West Java Provincial Election, more specifically the case of the hashtag campaign strategy, “2019 to Replace the President”, on the increase in the votes for the Sudrajat-Ahmad Saikhu ticket. The research method is qualitative and the type of research is descriptive-analytic. Data are collected through in-depth interviews and library research. The research finds that the movement had the following impacts: First, it contributed to the voting preference of those who previously had voted for Prabowo Subianto in the 2014 general election. Second, the other candidate Deddy Mizwar’s supporters switched sides to the Sudrajat-Ahmad Saikhu ticket due to the still strong sentiments of the 212 movement for the urban Muslim population. Third, the increase in vote share for the Sudrajat-Ahmad Saikhu ticket was partly shared by the fact that the Regencies of Bogor, Bekasi, and Sukabumi, as well as the Cities of Depok and Bekasi were PKS and Gerindra strongholds

Strategic Manoeuvering in 2019 Campaign Speeches in the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa: Extended Pragma-Dialectical Perspective

This article investigates how political candidates in the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa employed means of strategic manoeuvring during the provincial election campaigns of 2019. It assumes the framework of the extended pragma-dialectical theory of argumentation, by first reconstructing the argumentation structure, identifying the means of strategic manoeuvring, and finally, critically analysing the prototypical speech acts in the political campaign discourse. The data were collected from the isiXhosa newspaper I’solezwe LesiXhosa during the campaign from February to April 2019. The findings demonstrate commissives and assertives as the prototypical speech acts in the political argumentative discourse in the Eastern Cape Province. In addition, dissociation is manifested in multiple contexts to persuade the audience of the standpoint that the opposition parties are more visionary than the incumbent party, African National Congress.

200 Years of Fossil Fuels and Climate Change (1900-2100)

Abstract The geologic record shows that the Earth’s climate has always been changing naturally during the past 600 million years in terms of CO2 and temperature, without CO2 emissions from Fossil Fuels by humans. There were both warming and cooling periods prior to the appearance of human beings on the Planet Earth. The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is attributed to the Industrial Age that commenced in 1760 in the Great Britain and later in the USA. The principal driver behind the Industrial Revolution has been Fossil Fuels (i.e., Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal). Since 1900, Fossil Fuels have been the single most important driver of the modern human civilization. If the Net–Zero CO2 policy were to be implemented, large numbers of people would die and the modern human civilization would come to a sudden halt, and humans left alive would have to revert back to the lifestyles of the Neanderthals who lived 40,000 years ago without the benefits of Fossil Fuels. The failure of the Net–Zero policy is already evident by (1) the Germany’s shift back to coal from unreliable wind to face the energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine War on 24th February 2022, (2) the bankruptcy of Sri Lanka in 2022 caused by the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) policy that banned chemical fertilizers, and (3) the major victory by the Dutch pro-farmers party (BBB) in the 2023 provincial elections in opposition to the Dutch government’s climate policy to eliminate nitrogen emissions by reducing 30% of livestocks in the Netherlands. A climate-change model for 200 Years (1900-2100) is proposed based on four basic parameters, namely, CO2, Temperature, Population, and GDP per capita. The model shows a steady increase in all four parameters from 1900 to 2100. In this model, calculations based on the Max Planck’s Curve by Van Wijngaarden and Happer (2020), an increase in CO2 and Temperature by 2100 would be trivial and that would not hinder either the population growth or the GDP growth. Therefore, Climate Change is not an existential threat. The proposed road-map for the future is to continue to use the Fossil Fuels as usual. The ultimate driver of the Earth’s climate is the omnipotent Sun, not humans. The CO2 in the atmosphere helps not only to modulate the Earth’s Temperature suitable for human survival, but also to enhance Global Greening. Therefore, we should shift our resources and attention away from Global Warming and aim towards eliminating Global Poverty.

The Influence of Internal Control Effectiveness on Corruption Prevention with Performance Accountability as an Intervening Variable

This study aims to determine the effect of internal control effectiveness, budget participation, and apparatus competence on corruption prevention with performance accountability as intervening variables. This study is on the Independent Electoral Commission in Aceh Province and the General Election Commission in North Sumatra Province with a total of 58 work units with data analysis using multiple linear regression. The data uses a questionnaire; the financial manager, the respondent, is given a questionnaire using digital assistance, namely the Google form. This study used data quality tests, classical assumption tests, and computer-assisted hypothesis testing through the IBM SPSS for Windows program. The results show that the effectiveness of internal control, budget participation, apparatus competency, and performance accountability have an impact on preventing corruption in the Independent Electoral Commission in Aceh Province and the General Election Commission in North Sumatra Province. These results indicate that the Effectiveness of Internal Control, Budget Participation, and Apparatus Competence affect accountability at the Independent Electoral Commission in Aceh Province and the Provincial Election Commission in North Sumatra. At the same time, the Effectiveness of Internal Control, Budget Participation, and Apparatus Competence influence Corruption Prevention through Performance Accountability at the Independent Electoral Commission in Aceh Province and the Provincial General Election Commission in North Sumatra.

Can an Electoral System Ensure Real Representation? The Poona Pact and Preferable Dalit Representatives

This article challenges the traditional view that Dalits† gave up their right to representation when Ambedkar signed the Poona Pact and agreed to joint electorates, which allowed caste Hindus to elect ‘failed’ Dalit candidates of the primaries in the final polls. The article shows that upper-caste Hindus cast their votes for the same Dalit candidates in the final elections who received the highest Dalit votes in the primaries through an examination of the provincial elections in 1936−1937 and 1945−1946. The article argues that Dalit candidates elected either through joint or separate electorates cannot necessarily guarantee the autonomy of Dalit representatives. It contends that only Dalit legislators having the epistemic aspect emphasised by Ambedkar and the empathetic character underlined by Gandhi can be preferable representatives of Dalit interests.