Proven Oil Reserves Research Articles

RAW MATERIAL BASE OF HARD-TO-EXTRACT OIL RESERVES OF RUSSIA

The estimation of the share of hard-to-extract oil reserves in the deposits of Russia varies by different sources, in a fairly wide range (from 30 to 70 %). Due to the absence of a common approach to their definition, the variety of parameters used to estimate this share and fundamentally different conditions for the development of the groups of reserves classified as hard-to-extract become challanging. A significant share of the proven oil reserves of Russian oil fields - about 34 % (6.3 million tons) - belongs to heavy (oil density more than 0.871 g/cm3) and super-heavy (oil density more than 0.895 g/cm3). In general, the share of high-viscosity and super-highviscosity oils is about 13% (2.4 million tons). The largest share refers to the deposits of three districts. In lowpermeable collectors (permeability less than 0.05 μm2), huge reserves are concentrated – 8.2 million tons or 44.6 % of all oil. Comparison of oil extraction and reserves structure indicates a good correlation for oil extraction from low-permeable collectors in 41.8 % with reserves percentage in 44.6 % as well as a relatively good correlation in super-heavy oil in 13.4% with reserves percentage in 18 % and low rates for super-high-viscosity oil in 1.7% with reserves perecentage in 6 %. Significant proven reserves of high-viscosity oil in Russia indicate the possibility of increasing production with the introduction of modern, existing and proven, technologies under appropriate economic conditions. Full-scale involvement in the development of only the largest deposits of high-viscosity oil would allow the Russian Federation to produce at least 25-30 million tons in the medium term.

Prospectivity estimation of Palchig Pilpilesi oil field

The paper deals with the estimation of reserves of Gala suite horizon in Palchig Pilpilesi oil field and the suggestions on their efficient usage. The prospecting and exploration was started in 1952 in Palchig Pilpilesi field, and in 1953 the well No 261 drilled to Gala suite horizon in south-east part placed on the production with the output up to 40 t/day. Currently, the field is on the last development stage. In 2009, “Oil-Gas Scientific Research Project” Institute carried out the estimation of proven reserves of the field according to which residual reserves in Gala suite horizon in Palchig Pilpilesi field comprise 40077.4 thousand tons and proven production reserves in 2306.4 thousand tons included in A+B+C1 category. It should be noted that 48 % of residual proven oil reserves are only in Gala suite horizon. At present, the exploitation of Gala suite horizon is conducted in 62 wells. The drilling of wells from additional platforms to be constructed over the coming years is planned. The accumulation of significant amount of proven reserves in III, V, X and XII blocks of Gala suite’s horizons and the rocks’ high characteristics (porosity, permeability, oil saturation etc.) give reason for studying it and review the practicability of additional wells.

Strategic intent of OBOR: enhancing energy supply resilience

Since the launch of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative in 2015, China has announced its intention to invest in major infrastructure projects to promote trade and co-operation with its trading partners along OBOR. This paper examines the current level of trading and key projects underway along OBOR so as to provide insights to understand its strategic intent. In particular, a network model is constructed to analyze the impact to China current and future demand for energy under various conditions especially during prolonged periods of supply uncertainties. Since these key projects are closely connected to the current and proven oil and natural gas reserves locations, the findings propound the OBOR initiative is more than trade and a key motivation is to enhance China’s energy supply resilience amongst other imperatives.

Carbonate rocks: Matrix permeability estimation

Carbonate rocks store half of the world’s proven oil reserves. Genesis and postdepositional diagenetic processes define the porous network topology and the matrix permeability. This study compiles a database of porosity, specific surface, mercury porosimetry, and permeability values extracted from published sources and complements the database through a focused experimental study. Specific surface and porosity combine to estimate the pore size (Dsur). Permeability versus Dsur data cluster along a single trend with a slope of 2 in a log–log scale, which is in agreement with the Kozeny–Carman model. Discordant data points correspond to samples with dual porosity or broad pore-size distributions with long tails, where flow channels along larger interconnected pores. Indeed, the detailed analysis of all the porosimetry data in the database shows that permeability correlates best with the pore size D80, that is, the 80th percentile in pore-size distributions. Once again, the best fit is a power function in terms of (D80)2, analogous to Kozeny–Carman. The prediction uncertainty using D80 is one order of magnitude and has the same degree of uncertainty as more complex models and analyses. This observation suggests an irreducible uncertainty of one order of magnitude in permeability estimation from index properties such as porosity, mercury porosimetry, and specific surface probably resulting from specimen preparation effects, inherent physical differences in permeation versus invasion, and difficulties in data interpretation. These estimates of permeability are most valuable when specimens are limited to small sizes, such as cuttings.

Oil and Gas Balance Analysis (Case Study of "X" Field)

Indonesia is one of the countries in the world that has the potential of natural resources in the form of oil and gas. As a resource that plays an important role in economic life, the utilization of oil and gas needs to be managed properly and correctly. Preparation of the balance of natural resources is an important part of the management of wealth controlled by the state. The value of resources must be known so that the government can make the right policies, especially for oil and gas fields that will be terminated. One of the oil and gas resources which has significant production value and impact on the Indonesian economy is the "X" field in East Kalimantan. This study aims to provide an overview of oil and gas processing in the "X" field, estimate the monetary value of oil and gas volumes in a certain period and analyze policies that can encourage the management of the remaining oil and gas fields more optimally. The data used in the research are sourced from the results of discussions, field observations, studies of government policy literature, and company documentation. The analysis conducted in this study is divided into description analysis, oil and gas balance analysis and policy analysis. The analytical tools used are a study of government and company policy literature, the Net Present Value (NVP) method and the Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method. Based on the analysis, the physical value of proven oil and gas reserves in the "X" field amounted to 322,988,294 barrels & 420,745,986 MSCF; while the monetary value of oil and gas reserves amounting to IDR 222.655.210.375.641 (oil) and IDR 722,623,266,696 (gas) until 2018. Analysis of policies for the development of the "X" field taking into account economic, social and HSE (Health, Safety and Environmental) criteria results in a conclusion that Gross Split policy alternatives have the highest value for the draft of as business as usual policy when compared to the Cost Recovery policy and the Cost and Fee policy.

Distribution Characteristics and Main Controlling Factors of Oil and Gas in the Bohai Sea Area

Liu, Y.; Cao, Q., and Zhang, Q., 2019. Distribution characteristics and main controlling factors of oil and gas in the Bohai Sea area. In: Li, L.; Wan, X., and Huang, X. (eds.), Recent Developments in Practices and Research on Coastal Regions: Transportation, Environment and Economy. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 98, pp. 243–246. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.In the Bohai Sea, structural oil and gas reservoirs account for the highest proportion of proven oil and gas reserves, followed by composite oil and gas reservoirs. In large and medium-sized oil and gas fields, which account for one-third of the total oil and gas fields, the proven oil and gas reserves account for 83% of the total reserves. Low uplift, middle sag uplift, and uplift structural belts have the most proven oil and gas reserves. Vertically, more than half of the proven oil and gas reserves are concentrated in the Neogene strata. More than 90% of the proven oil reserves and 85% of the proven gas reserves are distributed in shallow-middle reservoirs less than 3,000 M. The distribution of oil and gas in the Bohai Sea is the result of the interaction of a series of geological processes, such as source rocks, sedimentary systems, tectonic and fault systems development, and evolution. Oil and gas migrate and accumulate in short distance around hydrocarbon-rich sags; favorable sedimentary facies belts, high-quality lithofacies, and good physical properties determine the development of high-quality reservoirs in the Bohai Sea.

Modeling Human Capital Impact on the Development of the Iraqi Oil Industry

Iraq has the second largest proven oil reserves in the world. According to oil experts, it is expected that the Iraq's reserves to rise to 200+ billion barrels of high-grade crude. 
 Oil is a strategic commodity for producing and exporting countries in general, and Iraq in particular, as demonstrated by the international experience that oil is an important means to achieve economic growth, an important tool in the overall economic, social and political development. It is also an important source of hard currency for any national economy and a means to connect the local economy and the global economy. In this paper we focus our attention on selecting the best regression model that explain the effect of human capital represented by different levels of human cadres on the development of the Iraqi oil industry by employing the data of a time series consisting of 21years period. Two popular classical procedures were applied to select such model, specifically, all possible regression procedure and the stepwise regression procedures. The statistical program SPSS was employed to perform the required calculations.

Petroleum geological conditions and exploration potential of Lower Paleozoic carbonate rocks in Gucheng Area, Tarim Basin, China

Abstract Lower Paleozoic carbonate rocks are an important exploration area in craton area of the Tarim Basin, with the proven oil and gas reserves of more than 2.2×108 t, but no large-scale discovery has been made in the Gucheng area so far. The key issues restricting exploration are that the source rock, reservoir scale and law of oil and gas enrichment are unclear. By systematically examining the petroleum geological conditions of Lower Paleozoic carbonate rocks, the following findings are reached: (1) Source rocks of slope-basin facies developed in Cambrian-Lower Ordovician in the Gucheng area. (2) The dolomitized beach in the lower part of Ordovician Yingshan Formation has large-scale reservoirs, good reservoir-cap assemblage and developed gas source faults, and is an important field for increasing reserves and production in the near future; hydrocarbon enrichment is controlled by reservoir and gas source faults, and the central dolomitized beach zone is the main exploration area. (3) The Cambrian platform margin reef beach, large in scale, good in physical properties and close to source rocks, has the possibility to form monolithic gas field; the caprock and preservation conditions are the key factors for hydrocarbon enrichment; the northern part of the phases I and II platform margin reefs has better sealing conditions, and is the main direction of next exploration. (4) Limestone fault solution reservoirs in the upper part of Ordovician Yingshan Formation, controlled by faults and small in scale, but good in reservoir-cap combination, worth exploring. (5) The granular limestone beach of Ordovician Yijianfang Formation is well developed and gas-bearing, but short in exposure dissolution time, and the reservoirs are strongly heterogeneous, and are a potential exploration field.

Temperature-depth control of petroleum occurrence in the sedimentary section of the South Caspian basin

This study analyses the temperature and depth control of well productivity (oil and gas), density of hydrocarbons (HC) and gas/liquid HC ratio (GLR) of petroleum fields in the South Caspian Basin (SCB). The database includes more than 700 field data from 54 onshore and offshore fields, which were processed to provide graphical and statistical analysis using standard computer programs. It was established that the peak of initial production and proven oil reserves falls in the temperature range 50–70 °C. The oils of this interval are characterized by medium (about 890 kg/m3) and light (about 806 kg/m3) density. The maximum condensate and gas production are in the temperature range 100–120 oС, associated with the discovery and operation of large gas condensate fields in the deepwater part of the SCB. Liquid HC are represented in this temperature interval by “volatile” oils and condensates with an average density of 777–802 kg/m3. Low values of GLR are typical for temperatures below 70 °C, associated both with poor gas conservation conditions and relatively high volumes of oil production. The carbon isotope composition of methane indicates an exclusively catagenetic (thermal) origin at temperatures >50 °C and both catagenetic and mixed (microbiological-catagenetic) at temperatures <50 °C. Based on the results, a forecast is provided for the discovery of new commercial HC accumulations.

CARBONATE RESERVOIR ROCKS AT GIANT OIL AND GAS FIELDS IN SW IRAN AND THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE: A REVIEW OF STRATIGRAPHIC OCCURRENCE AND PORO‐PERM CHARACTERISTICS

SW Iran and the adjacent offshore are prolific petroleum‐producing areas with very large proven oil and gas reserves and the potential for significant new discoveries. Most of the oil and gas so far discovered is present in carbonate reservoir rocks in the Dehram, Khami and Bangestan Groups and the Asmari Formation, with smaller volumes in the Dashtak, Neyriz, Najmeh, Gurpi, Pabdeh, Jahrum, Shahbazan, Razak and Mishan (Guri Member) Formations. The Permo‐Triassic Dehram Group carbonates produce non‐associated gas and condensate in Fars Province and the nearby offshore. The Jurassic – Lower Cretaceous Khami Group carbonates are an important producing reservoir at a number of offshore fields and in the southern Dezful Embayment, and are prospective for future exploration. Much of Iran's crude oil is produced from the Oligo‐Miocene Asmari Formation and the mid‐Cretaceous Sarvak Formation of the Bangestan Group in the Dezful Embayment.This review paper is based on data from 115 reservoir units at 60 oil‐ and gasfields in SW Iran and the adjacent offshore. It demonstrates that the main carbonate reservoir units vary from one‐another significantly, depending on the particular sedimentary and diagenetic history. Ooidal‐grainstones and rudist‐ and Lithocodium‐bearing carbonate facies form the most important reservoir facies, and producing units are commonly dolomitised, karstified and fractured. In general, reservoir rocks in the study area can be classified into six major types: grainstones; reefal carbonates; karstified, dolomitised and fractured carbonates; and sandstones. The stratigraphic distribution of these reservoir rocks was principally controlled by the palaeoclimatic conditions existing at the time of deposition. A comparative reservoir analysis based on core data shows that dolomitised and/or fractured, grain‐dominated carbonates in the Dehram Group, Lower Khami Group and Asmari Formation typically have better reservoir qualities than the Cretaceous limestones in the Upper Khami and Bangestan Groups.

The renewable energy strategies of oil majors – From oil to energy?

Renewables, especially wind and solar, are taking a role of increasing importance in the energy industry. Therefore, oil majors are progressively positioning themselves for the proclaimed energy transition. This indeed raises the question of whether sizeable capital allocation into renewable energy could indicate that oil majors are indeed transforming into energy companies. This paper helps to address this query by investigating the oil majors' renewable energy strategies and investments. Furthermore, a complete quantification and categorization of oil majors into renewable leaders or laggards is provided. Results show that of the eight oil majors, five have undertaken considerable investment into renewable energy. The analysis also demonstrates the strong linkage between the oil majors’ proved oil reserves and their renewable energy strategies.

Investigation of Pore Pressure on Seismic Amplitude Response: A Well-Based Modeling Case Study of Sojuko Field, Niger Delta

The Sojuko field was discovered in 2001 in the eastern shallow offshore area of the Niger Delta, Nigeria. Three (3) exploration wells have so far been drilled in the field, two (2) of which are reasonably vertical and the third highly deviated. Three (3) key reservoirs which are laterally continuous across the wells have been identified with proven oil and gas reserves. Pore pressure data from repeat formation test (RFT) measurements acquired in the deviated well show that the wells are entirely hydrostatic to true depth (TD). This research focuses on investigating how seismic amplitudes change with offset/angle of incidence in relation to varying pore pressure regimes at the shale-hydrocarbon sand and shale-brine sand interfaces using well data. The aim is to aid quantitative interpretation in an on-going field-wide exploration drive to de-risk hydrocarbon exploration in the deeper plays in the area which are below TD, and are expected to be overpressured. The study is hinged on end-member shale elastic parameter substitution in which the shales are subjected to varying overpressure regimes while keeping the reservoirs (sands) at in situ (hydrostatic) condition. The end-member shale property substitution simulated shale compaction dis-equilibrium as the main overpressure generation mechanism in this study. The results show that top gas sands, top oil sands and top brine sands would be visible on seismic in the deeper plays where pore pressures are expected to be very high, but with distinctive seismic amplitude with offset/angle behavior. The top gas sands are visible as blue loop with small positive reflection coefficients at the near offsets/angles, but with polarity reversal to red loop with negative reflection coefficients which become more and more negative at the far angles at hard overpressure regimes. Top oil sands are recognized as blue loop with large positive reflection coefficients at the near angles; the coefficients becoming less and less positive at the far angles/offsets. The top oil sands may not be detected on seismic at the far angles/offsets unless at very hard overpressures. Brine sands have similar seismic response as oil sands at hard overpressures, but can be distinguished from oil sands based on their much higher amplitudes over the entire offset/angle range. The study is also aimed at removing uncertainty in seismic-based pore pressure quantification at the deeper targets where there is absence of well data for calibrating pore pressure effects at varying conditions.

Иран на мировом рынке нефти

Iran is the fourth world largest holder of proved oil reserves, extraction costs of Iranian oil are comparatively low. Oil production dynamics in the country is sharply cyclical and these cycles are generated by political factors, exogenous to the oil sector. Peak in oil production was achieved in 1974 and for the last forty years Iran&rsquo;s share in the world oil production is declining. The article reveals that among powerful exogenous shocks negatively affecting the dynamics of oil production in Iran there were unilateral and multilateral sanctions. The first sanctions against Iran were introduced by the USA in 1979. Since the middle of the 1990-ies sanctions have become a system. The long-term negative effects of sanctions substantially exceed the short-term ones. Largely due to the sanctions the technological level of Iranian oil sector remains very low. Global energy companies and banks prefer to reject interactions with Iranian counterparties due to the expanding practice of the extraterritorial regime of US sanctions that has transformed Iranian hydrocarbons into a &ldquo;toxic asset&rdquo;. Asia-Pacific countries, preserving oil import from Iran under the sanctions regime, got an opportunity to set very favorable for them terms of contracts. Iranian oil is bought with a price discount, for partially convertible and/or unconvertible currencies, often in exchange for a counter barter supply of goods. Expectations that non-Western oil companies would substitute for European investments have failed so far. Given the accelerating global race for monetization of hydrocarbon reserves and risk of forthcoming peak in global demand for oil there is a growing probability that a substantial part of commercially competitive Iranian oil reserves will remain in the ground.&nbsp

E&amp;P Notes (January 2019)

E&amp;P Notes (January 2019)

Comments: Better Days for E&amp;P

Editor's column After years of reined-in spending, major operators are beginning to cautiously loosen their E&amp;P budgets. The crash in oil prices that began in 2014 caused operators to tighten capital spending across the board, but particularly on large upstream projects. Those cuts led to many prospective developments being delayed, downsized, or canceled. The largest publicly listed companies slashed spending by 40% after the downturn began. The reduction was so drastic that it caused the International Energy Agency (IEA) and some consultancies to warn that the world could face a supply crunch just a few years out because of the impact. Supply growth would stall if E&amp;P spending by operators did not increase, the IEA warned in a report last year, and spare production capacity would drop to its lowest level since 2008 within 2 years. But now that oil prices have apparently stabilized, upstream spending is on the rise. In its latest US Oil and Gas Reserves Study, published this year, consultancy EY notes that the 50 largest US operators are increasing capital expenditures this year for the first time since 2014, and not all of it on shale. Spending is 32% higher than in 2016 and 5% higher than in 2015. Proved oil reserves for these companies increased 21% last year. In 2017, 32 major new developments were given the go-ahead, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, and 18 had received approval by mid-year this year. National oil companies (NOCs) as well are seeing some budget relief with rising oil prices. But, as international oil companies have to hurdle the barriers of Wall Street, NOCs often face pressure from their governments for increased revenue when times improve. As did private companies during the downturn, NOCs slashed spending, sharpened efficiency, and cut costs during the downturn, leaving them in good shape to take advantage of current conditions. Both Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC) have announced sizable upstream budget increases for this year. Many Middle East NOCs are investing heavily in the downstream as well. Saudi Aramco, KPC, Adnoc, and Qatar Petroleum are investing in refinery and petrochemical projects at home and abroad, particularly in Asia, to ensure long-term demand for their hydrocarbons. A boost to upstream confidence has been recent major discoveries. More than 2.5 billion bbl of recoverable reserves have been found in the deepwater Atlantic margin, says Wood Mackenzie. Among the largest are ExxonMobil’s Guyana development, discoveries in the US Gulf of Mexico by Shell and Chevron, and Eni’s find on the Mexican side of the Gulf of Mexico. The Liza complex alone in Guyana accounts for 15% of total conventional oil found since 2015. In addition, the Dorado-1 well in Australia has turned out to be a major gas and oil find. Another source of confidence is coming in the form of merger and acquisition activity. Transocean’s $2.7 billion bid for Ocean Rig in September could be a sign that the ultradeepwater outlook is picking up. US shale remains a bright spot, although infrastructure constraints are capping activity. Both Schlumberger and Halliburton warned in their second-quarter earnings reports that lack of infrastructure could hurt their activity and revenue in the region. Recent news reports indicate that those restraints may not be resolved until next year.

Cracking of Heavy Hydrocarbon Feedstock in the Presence of Cobalt

Heavy oils are more than 70 % of the world proven oil reserves that makes it an urgent problem of modern refinery to improve the efficiency and oil conversion ratio. Cobalt powders and one-stage prepared cobalt-based catalysts were first tested for tar cracking at the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery Plant. XRD, SEM and TPR techniques were used for studying the compositions and properties of the prepared samples. It was shown that the cobalt surface contained oxygen in the form of layer-by-layer stacked Co 3 O 4 and CoO; the mechanical activation of the catalysts resulted in redistribution of the oxide quantities and in changes in the composition of tar cracking products. The mechanoactivated cobalt was more active to tar cracking than the initial powder. The yield of light fractions was 70 % in the presence of the mechanoactivated cobalt that was 10 wt % higher than with non-activated cobalt and 25 % higher than in the absence of cobalt.

Petroleum Distribution Characteristics of the Americas and the Exploration Prospect Analysis

AbstractThe world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world's largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world's total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world's total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle‐Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural‐stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural‐unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic‐structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic‐structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low‐uplift belt and supra‐salt central low‐uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural‐stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area.

Современное состояние мирового рынка нефти

The main issue of the world economy today is the global rise in oil prices. Oil remains the most important primary energy source in the world for the next 30-40 years. According to experts, by 2030 this figure will reach 116 million barrels per day. However, the share of OPEC countries in the world’s proven oil reserves is 83%. The world is facing the threat of a prolonged oil crisis and should be prepared for the fact that oil prices will be high for a long period.OPEC expects an increase in demand for gasoline and distillates in 2018 by almost 1 million barrels per day. The optimism of the cartel is based on the growing demand for petroleum products in the US and the increase in global car sales. The healthy growth of the world economy, good sales figures for cars in recent months and increased consumption in the US will lead to an increase in demand for gasoline and distillates in the world by 0.993 million barrels per day. This will have a positive impact on oil and oil products stocks, which OPEC and non-OPEC countries seek to reduce by limiting production. The main driver of the reduction in petroleum products OPEC sees consumption in the US. For the first time in past 25 years, the demand for diesel fuel and gasoline in the US increased by 846 thousand barrels per day. The reserves of gasoline and distillates in the US declined over in 2017 and fell below the average for five years. Oil reserves also fell below this indicator.Nowadays, OPEC continues to play a huge role in the functioning of the world economy, but it is clear that its role in the international arena is getting lower and lower every year. This is due to many indicators. Here are the main ones. First, due to the fact that already today OPEC is not able to cope with the fall in oil prices, it has to seek support from other oil-exporting countries, that is, its dependence on other countries increases. Secondly, the recent rationalization of the use of natural resources and the shift to the use of alternative energy sources, leads to a reduction in demand for oil. In these conditions, OPEC pursues a policy of reducing the production of oil. But, with the reduction in oil production in the OPEC countries, the states that are not included in it, on the contrary, are trying to increase production of «black gold», gradually reducing the role of OPEC in the functioning of the world economy.The dynamics of energy demand is affected by many factors, including weather, the price of petroleum products, the growth rate of the economy, etc. The proposal is also difficult to calculate. Despite the very specific goals of the OPEC + countries and other exporters, there are periodic accidents, spills, man-made and natural disasters that can dramatically change the market situation. Many risks have to be neglected. IEA, OPEC and the US Ministry of Energy regularly publish their estimates of the future oil market and are the most authoritative organizations in this regard.This article considers the dynamic of changes in the world market of «black gold», also many factors due to the influence of various geopolitical processes on extraction and export of oil.Key words: oil, price, OPEC, petroleum, barrel.

Response of Stock Returns to Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from Oil Importing and Exporting Countries

This paper examines the entire dependence structure of the quantile of stock return and that of oil price shocks, thereby extending the Quantile Regression to a Quantile-on- Quantile Regression. Based on historical monthly data covering the period April 1994~September 2015, it was shown that there is substantial heterogeneity in the stock returns and oil price relationship across oil importing countries and oil exporting countries. We find that the stocks of oil exporters that possess large proven oil reserves, in particular,Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are typically more responsive toward demand-side oil shocks than those of oil importers. The intensity and the extent of these responses differ depending on the different stock market conditions and the nuances of oil price movements. profitable speculation and arbitrage strategies can be built. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Response of Stock Returns to Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from Oil Importing and Exporting Countries

This paper examines the entire dependence structure of the quantile of stock return and that of oil price shocks, thereby extending the Quantile Regression to a Quantile-on- Quantile Regression. Based on historical monthly data covering the period April 1994~September 2015, it was shown that there is substantial heterogeneity in the stock returns and oil price relationship across oil importing countries and oil exporting countries. We find that the stocks of oil exporters that possess large proven oil reserves, in particular,Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are typically more responsive toward demand-side oil shocks than those of oil importers. The intensity and the extent of these responses differ depending on the different stock market conditions and the nuances of oil price movements. profitable speculation and arbitrage strategies can be built.