Protracted Transition Research Articles

SOUTHEAST ASIA IN 2005: Strength in the Face of Adversity

Southeast Asia greeted 2005 in a sombre mood, as the full scale of devastation in the wake of the tsunami triggered by a massive earthquake that sent giant waves crashing into the coastlines of north Sumatra, southern Thailand, northwestern Malaysia, and Myanmar became apparent. Almost a quarter million people were killed across the region, a loss of life almost too great to comprehend. In Aceh alone as many as 180,000 people died as a wall of dark water 10 metres high travelling at speeds of almost 400 miles an hour rushed onshore crushing everything in its path. From the air, it still looks like the aftermath of an atom blast. The tsunami was a particular blow for Indonesia, which had just crowned a protracted and messy democratic transition with successful multi-party elections and the first direct presidential election at the end of 2004. The new government led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was poised to inaugurate a new era of confidence and stability for Indonesia. Hopes ran high. Southeast Asia badly needed its largest component state to get back on track or face the prospect of unfavourable comparison with the booming economies of China and India.

Electoral Competition and Institutional Change in Mexico

Electoral Competition and Institutional Change in Mexico. By Caroline C. Beer. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 2003. 208p. $45.00 cloth, $20.00 paper.A growing literature argues that understanding Mexico's protracted transition from one-party rule requires exploring the dynamics of political competition as they emerged at the state and local levels. Caroline Beer makes an important contribution to this approach to Mexican democratization by examining state-level electoral competition in the 1990s and its impact on institutional development, particularly of state legislatures, and on political recruitment, especially of gubernatorial candidates. She argues that democratization resulted from a “complex interplay between opposition victories in subnational elections and important democratic advances in the national political arena” (pp. 9–10).

Courting democracy in Mexico: party strategies and electoral institutions

Figures and tables Acknowledgements 1. Electoral courts and actor compliance: opposition-authoritarian relations and protracted transitions 2. Ties that bind and even constrict: why authoritarians tolerate electoral reforms 3. Mexico's national electoral justice success: from oxymoron to legal norm in just over a decade 4. Mexico's local electoral justice failures: gubernatorial (s)election beyond the shadows of the law 5. The gap between law and practice: institutional failure and opposition success in postelectoral conflicts, 1989-2000 6. The National Action Party: dilemmas of rightist oppositions defined by authoritarian collusion 7. The party of the democratic revolution: from postelectoral movements to electoral competitors 8. Dedazo from the center to finger pointing from the periphery: PRI hard-liners challenge Mexico's electoral institutions 9. A quarter century of 'Mexicanization': lessons from a protracted transition Appendices Bibliography Index.

Theorising Kenya's protracted transition to democracy

In their seminal text Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, Guillermo O’Donnell and Philippe Schmitter (1986:6) define a transition as “the interval between one political system and another”. According to the authors, the beginning and end of this process are relatively easy to trace. The transition begins with a split in the authoritarian regime, after which regime elites who believe in the necessity of electoral legitimation become dominant. These softliners, as they are known, typically negotiate a pact with moderate opposition elites, providing for elections under clearly defined rules and procedures. The transition ends when new political elites assume power or, in rare cases, the old elites are newly legitimised. In most sub-Saharan African cases, as well as many elsewhere, both boundaries of the transition process are in fact hard to delimit. It is difficult to determine when a particular transition began and, more significantly, when it has actually ended.

The Trajectory of Post‐communist Welfare State Development: The Cases of Bulgaria and Romania

Abstract Governments of countries undergoing a post‐communist transition face the dilemma of balancing conflicting demands for greater economic efficiency (to achieve a successful transition to a market system) with demands for enhanced social protection (to legitimize regime change through a visible improvement in living standards which includes vulnerable groups). This paper analyses the transition in Bulgaria and Romania. Unlike other European countries, these countries did not embark on retrenchment policies until the mid‐ to late 1990s, so convergence with policies of spending constraint elsewhere in Europe was belated and partial. The social problems created by strict economic policies, exacerbated by a determination to reorganize the post‐communist welfare states along the lines promoted by international organizations, are now being recognized. Post‐communist governments in South‐eastern Europe have belatedly started to address the social aspects of transition to democracy and the market. This probably reflects the process of regime change in Bulgaria and Romania, which has been characterized as a “two‐step transition to democracy”, with liberal governments only succeeding transformed communist elites in power after a protracted transition.

What Happens When the Technology Growth Trend Changes? Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth, and the “New Economy”

This paper considers transition dynamics associated with a change in the rate of technological progress, using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates stochastic technology growth trends. The model suggests that these dynamics are associated with protracted transition periods, especially when technology growth is capital-embodied. Simulations of the post-WWII U.S. economy show that the model's propagation mechanism is capable of explaining a significant portion of variation in observed growth rates, particularly for investment, capital accumulation, and employment. The simulations suggest that positive shocks to the trend rate of technology growth in the mid-1980s and early 1990s were precursors to the productivity acceleration of the late 1990s. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E32, E22, O40.

Uncertainty in Mexico's protracted transition: The national action party and its aversion to risk

Contrary to arguments that the party in power is the only one that benefits from prolonged democratic transitions, this article demonstrates that other actors such as Mexico's National Action Party (PAN), might also benefit from longer durations of transition. They might actively promote such outcomes, as befits their level of institutionalization, values, and constituent interests. Identifying aversion to risk as the main incentive which prompts parties to favour protracted transitions, the article makes three related arguments relating the perception of political uncertainty to PAN's role in Mexico's protracted transition. First, considering the time frame as the defining variable of protracted transitions, the impact of this factor on protracted transitions is qualitatively different from its effect on accelerated transitions, especially in relation to levels of uncertainty perceived by actors such as the PAN. Secondly, the article proposes that the pace of transition depends on whether reaching a negotiated pact is indispensable to the political futures of the regime and opposition. In other words, if major actors agree that extreme outcomes must be avoided, then a transition outcome will be reached faster than if only one important actor (such as the PAN) fails to perceive the existence of such urgency, and perhaps even believes that prolonging negotiations will be to its advantage. Thirdly, upon distinguishing between altruistic and egoistic actors, the article concludes that the PAN tends to adopt altruistic strategies which benefit overall stability, even though the party frequently incurs political costs as a result.

Machine politics and protracted transition in Taiwan

Rather than viewing the opposition presidential victory in 2000 as the end of Taiwan's decades‐long protracted transition, this article argues that the end of transition was marked by Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996. The dominant‐party Kuomintang (KMT) regime cobbled together on Taiwan since the 1940s went beyond top‐down authoritarianism, as the party's leadership designed a political machine that deeply penetrated local society, enticing ordinary Taiwanese into political networks whose ultimate function was to support the KMT party‐state. The participants’ long experience with iterated bargaining over rules of competition trained the KMT and its opponents to expect incremental changes in response to repeated demands. Unlike opposition leaders in rapid transitions, for whom the negotiation of a pact offers the first (and sometimes only) opportunity to help define the rules of politics, Taiwan's opposition politicians saw these conferences as rungs on a ladder. Taiwan's experience demonstrates that even the limited electoral competition allowed in a single‐party authoritarian state creates powerful pressures for change.

Beyond democratic elections: Indonesia embarks on a protracted transition

Chronologically, Indonesia moved rather quickly from rupture of the authoritarian regime in May 1998 to the installation of a democratically elected government in October 1999. However, the suddenness of the rupture and the weakness of the anti‐regime forces enabled regime defenders to wield broad influence over the terms of the transition and to protect substantial authoritarian enclaves. These conditions suggest that Indonesia's transition remains far from complete and is likely to be protracted. Viewed more broadly, they call attention to a set of factors that suggest a typology of pacted and protracted transitions: the presence or absence of an opportunity to negotiate a transition pact among competing elites, and the relative degree of consensus among those elites regarding the nature and direction of political reform. This typology highlights features of the Mexican and Indonesian cases that mark them as variants on the protracted transition model rather than unrelated paths toward democracy.

Eddies in the third wave: Protracted transitions and theories of democratization

In the third wave's backwaters, where transitions are protracted and authoritarians seem unsinkable, incremental bargaining is the path for persistent opposition parties. This article outlines tentative propositions about actors and arenas of protracted transition, in reference to the under‐specified cases of transitions to democracy considered in this volume. It offers a general characterization of protracted transitions, drawing upon scant existing literature, but adding a more developed opposition‐based perspective to conventional depictions of authoritarian behaviour. Next, it specifies possible incentives for actors within opposition parties, and discusses the parties’ overall preferences in the trade‐off between short‐term co‐optation by the regime and longer‐term efforts to undermine the authoritarians. Finally it considers why the understudied electoral arena is so critical to these transitions, and offers four main reasons why opposition parties are such crucial actors. First, they have little to lose, at least in terms of their group's power within the regime. Second, effective opposition parties must remain ‘cause pure’ (at least for the most part) even given their need to broaden their coalition to reach a broader electorate, and despite temptations to submit to incumbent attempts at co‐optation. Third, the opposition parties must accept that unless external or economic factors intervene to turn a protracted transition into an abrupt one, the time horizon of the transition will be extended, and sheer endurance will be a great part of the challenge to the regime opposition. Fourth, even as opposition parties in some regions, or even at the national level, extract concessions, such concessions do not extend uniformly.

Protracted transitions among Africa's new democracies

Discussions of democratic transition and consolidation fail to devote much consideration to transitions in neo‐patrimonial regimes, such as those found in many African countries. This article argues that in such cases, the conceptual distinction between transition and consolidation may break down because the transition does not end until the polity, still in the midst of democratization, takes on some attributes of a consolidated democracy. Hence, protracted transition and consolidation may be one and the same, or processes that substantially, if not entirely, overlap each other. After briefly contrasting neo‐patrimonial regimes with the protracted transition ideal type, the essay adapts that ideal type to fit Africa's neo‐patrimonial regimes, drawing on evidence from contemporary politics in six African countries: South Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

Comparing types of transitions: Spain and Mexico

This article compares the processes of democratization in Spain and Mexico. The central arguments are: first, in order to understand the process of democratization, it is essential to look at the process of contestation‐mobilization from below that preceded democracy. Second, the level of institutionalization of the authoritarian regimes is a key variable in explaining the relatively ‘rapid’ democratization of the Spanish regime and the protracted transition taking place in Mexico. Third, that this level of institutionalization also helps us to understand the strength or weakness of the authoritarian elites. Fourth, the contestation‐mobilization process is linked to the process of organization of the political parties of the opposition in the democratization process. Finally, although in Spain the opposition political parties, in particular the Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol was able to become a governing alternative, in Mexico the structure and strength of the regime have slowed the possibilities of alternation and more generally, of a full transformation of the authoritarian regime into a competitive and inclusive democracy.

What Went Wrong in Russia? The Perils of a Protracted Transition

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Lessons from Russia’s Protracted Transition from Communist Rule

Despite the recent explosion of regime transitions throughout the world, social scientists have yet to develop a comprehensive theory of transition. Some transitions from authoritarian rule lead to the creation of liberal democracies. Others descend into civil war or end with the recreation of an authoritarian regime. Even within the set of successful transitions to democracy, some succeed in consolidating liberal democracies while others settle into patterns of democracy that are not fully liberal. How can we explain this variation? Russia's protracted transition from communist rule to democracy is especially puzzling, for this case over time is both an instance of a failed transition and a successful transition. The first two attempts at creating new democratic institutions failed. The third attempt appears to be succeeding. Why? A failed transition occurs a change in the political rules of the game precipitates abnormal politics or what Charles Tilly has called politics.1 Such moments occur one or more significant actors opt to pursue political objectives outside of the normal rules of the game. These situations become revolutionary two opposing groups claim sovereignty over the same territory and only end when a single sovereign polity regains control over the government.2 Russia's protracted transition from communist rule produced two such revolutionary situations. Mikhail Gorbachev initiated the first attempt to democratize the institutions of national government in the Soviet Union in 1987. This attempt ended in failure in August 1991, because the design resulted in violent confrontation between multiple sovereigns. The sec-

Space-time patterns of Cenozoic arc volcanism in central Mexico: From the Sierra Madre Occidental to the Mexican Volcanic Belt

ABSTRACTA histogram of 778 isotopic ages of magmatic rocks younger than Eocene in centralMexico shows a multimodal distribution with peaks at about 30 Ma, 23 Ma, 10 Ma, and 5 Ma.The sample suite displays systematic spatial variations with age that likely reflect the pro-tracted transition from the north-northwest–trending arc of the Sierra Madre Occidental tothe east-west–trending Mexican Volcanic Belt. The reorientation of the arc is accompanied bya change in the dominant composition of the products from silicic ignimbrites and rhyolites toandesitic and basaltic lavas. The observed transition is related to the Miocene reorganization ofthe subduction system following the cessation of subduction off Baja California and the east-ward motion of the Caribbean–Farallon–North America triple junction along the southeast-ern margin of Mexico. Our data support an early–middle Miocene age for the initiation of sub-horizontal subduction in southern Mexico and confirm that the locus of arc volcanism wasprimarily controlled by the geometry of plate boundaries and the thermal structure of the sub-ducting slab.

Poland's protracted transition: institutional change and economic growth, 1970-1994

In this book, first published in 1997, Kazimierz Z. Poznanski offers an integrated study of institutional change in the Polish economy since 1971. He examines the economic peak of the communist phase, the decline of the system, and the post-communist transition since 1989. Taking his analytical framework from evolutionary economics, he provides a complete re-evaluation of conventional views of communist economies and the post-communist transition. The book presents the communist economy as subject to major changes, particularly due to political pressures, and interprets its economic difficulties as related to underlying political decay. The economic 'shock therapy' of 1990 is seen as very much a continuation of earlier trends and pressures, which has led to probably an even deeper, though brief, economic collapse. This book will be of interest to economists and political scientists concerned with institutional transitions, as well as to students of East European and post-Soviet studies.

“The Man Transformed into a Maiden”? Languages of Grievance and the Politics of Class in Germany, 1850–1914

In most German histories of industrialization and labor the legend of the of home and serves as a crucial marker for the onset of modernization and working-class formation. Contests about the meanings of the purported of home and had a formative role in delineating the perimeters of class in Imperial Germany, not least because the Social Democratic labor movement cast class in terms of a rigid demar cation between the spheres of and non-work, production and re production. The textile industry, as the first German industry to relocate production from household to factory and the largest factory employer of female workers before the First World War, forms an excellent site at which to examine the consequences of the purported separation of home and work for the process of working-class formation. This article explores the ways in which the social identity of class was bounded by gender during the protracted transition from proto-industrial household production of tex tiles to centralized mechanized factories, a crucial phase in the process of working-class formation among German textile workers. The two brief case studies of this transition in the Rhineland, presented in the first part of this article, point to the complex ways in which the of home and became a cornerstone of the emergence of the new identity of citizens as male breadwinners, of their languages of grievance, and of their politics of class during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centu ries.

Reflections on Pearl Harbor Anniversaries Past

By any measure, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was one of the decisive events of the twentieth century. For Americans, it was the greatest military disaster in memory—one which set them on the road to becoming the world's greatest military power. For Japanese, the attack was a momentary triumph that marked the beginning of their nation's painful and protracted transition from empire to economic colossus.

Policies to Move from Stabilization to Growth

Although some discussions of stabilization see growth as more or less an assured product of appropriate stabilization policies, this paper argues that there is no guarantee that stabilization will lead to growth; it may result in stagnation. The paper discusses the essentials of stabilization, including inflation targets, fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rates, and incomes policy, and suggests that two areas of structural reform—deregulation, including trade reform, and reform of the financial sector—can play a central role in the long-run success of a stabilization effort. The paper concludes that countries that have experienced protracted high inflation, financial instability, and payments crises probably will have a difficult and protracted transition to growth, and that external resources will be necessary as a continuing feature of the transition. Sustained external support in the form of long-term loans, heavily conditioned on the tangibility and credibility of domestic progress in adjustment, will help provide a bridge by which flight capital may return and foreign direct investment may be encouraged to take advantage offresh opportunities.

Stages in the Formation of the Personality in Ontogeny

The crisis of adolescence differs considerably from the earlier crises we have examined. (1) It is the most acute and most prolonged of all the developmental crises marking transitional stages in the ontogenetic development of the child's personality. Essentially, the entire adolescent period is a protracted transition from childhood to maturity.