Protracted Conflict Research Articles

The Key Role of Political Prisoners in Transcending Protracted Conflicts

Abstract Resolving protracted, asymmetric, and ethno-national conflicts is a notoriously problematic process, and only a handful of such attempts have ended in success. This paper is the first comparative study examining the relevance of “politically motivated violent offenders” (PMVOs) in propelling the shift from a long and bloody armed struggle to a negotiated agreement; indeed, they play an indispensable role in the ratification and the eventual implementation of any such agreement. We compare the role of PMVOs in three cases of protracted conflict resolution processes in the 1990s—Northern Ireland, South Africa, and the Israeli-Palestinian Oslo Accords. We argue that PMVOs constitute a distinguished socio-political actor characterized by high symbolic capital as the embodiment of the national struggle. This renders them a major source of political legitimacy, a necessary condition for attaining peace with hitherto sworn enemies and securing its implementation and stabilization. The paper analyzes the provisions within the respective agreements pertaining to prisoners’ release as an incentive, or lack thereof, especially for organizations outside the peace process to cease violence. Whereas the British and South African governments fully recognized the PMVO issue, Israel’s failure to recognize its importance was a major factor leading to the breakdown of the Oslo process.

Control over the stability of banking activity during war in Ukraine

This article is devoted to control (supervision and regulation) in the field of banking activity and its condition in Ukraine during the deployment and spread of the military aggression of the Russian Federation in relation to Ukraine and in the current period (the large-scale Russian-Ukrainian war that began on February twenty-fourth, two thousand and twenty the second year and continues to this day).
 The state in general, and especially during the period of martial law, is entrusted with strict control (supervision and regulation) in the field of banking activity, since this sector is very important due to the fact that it is the basis of the stable development of the economy of any state. However, well-known crises that occurred earlier and occur quite often these days testify to the imperfection of regulation and supervision in the field of banking activity. So, for example, one of the last most painful crises, which, unfortunately, is still ongoing, began back in the year 2014 during the deployment of the «hybrid war» of the Russian Federation against the integrity of Ukraine in the East of Ukraine and the annexation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The specified crisis is a vivid example of the imperfection of supervision and regulation of the economic sector, and especially of the regulation of the banking system, including the administrative regulation of banking activity.
 In the light of the above, there is an urgent need to reform this institute, taking into account the experience of foreign countries that successfully exercise control in the field of banking during the period of martial law in the state.
 The article highlights the issue of research into the main causes of economic decline, which are the result of military conflicts, and ways to overcome crises in the post-war period. Special attention is paid to the stability of the banking sector of the economy, which has a significant impact on the entire economy of the country, during protracted military conflicts. The reasons for the emergence, development and possible ways of avoiding the collapse of the economy have been studied. A significant part of the article is devoted to the study of possible ways of overcoming economic crises in the country and overcoming the decline of the banking sector during the war.

Emerging Local Voices and New Possibilities toward Attaining Sustainable Peace in Bawku, north-eastern Ghana

Globally, conflicts continue to change dynamics and increase in complexity, weakening the potential of various peacebuilding interventions, especially in the Global South. The Bawku crisis is a notable protracted conflict in Ghana and West Africa, which attracts enormous scholarly debates, especially on how to attain sustained peace in the area. However, there remains some important dynamics that are not significantly explored in the discussions on achieving sustained peace in Bawku. Drawing on in-depth field interviews, we present a new perspective on chieftaincy and landownership (and use), shifting from absolute control to a shared system, aimed at potentially resolving conflicts. The proposed shared political and landownership system also reveals important weaknesses relating to existing court verdicts and scholarly advocacy for a parallel system or the resettlement of the Mamprusi outside of the area. However, this empirical contribution offers a new possibility to resolve the Bawku crisis and similar challenges in Ghana and Africa.

Exploring the Influence of Perceived Ingroup and Outgroup Threat on Quality of Life in a Region Impacted by Protracted Conflict.

While the detrimental effects of protracted political conflict on the wellbeing of Palestinians living in the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) are generally recognized, the impact of perceived threat on quality of life (QoL) faced from within their community (ingroup; Palestinians) and from the outgroup (Israelis) is unexplored. This cross-sectional study examined the following: (1) The status of perceptions of QoL on four domains measured by the World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQoL-Bref) instrument, physical health, psychological health, social relationships, and environment, among Palestinian adults (n = 709) living in the Gaza Strip; (2) The associations between perceived ingroup threat (PIT) and QoL on the four domains; (3) The associations between perceived outgroup threat (POT) and QoL on the four domains. Multivariable linear regression models revealed PIT was negatively associated with QoL in each of the four domains (p < 0.001). POT was positively associated with QoL in three of the four domains: physical health (p < 0.001), psychological health (p < 0.001), and social relationships (p < 0.001). This study contributes valuable insights into how QoL is viewed by a group experiencing collective existential threat. The findings expand the limited recognition of the reciprocal roles of perceived threat from the ingroup and outgroup on the QoL of vulnerable populations.

Health aid displacement during a decade of conflict (2011–19) in Syria: an exploratory analysis

BackgroundSyria has been in continuous conflict since 2011, resulting in more than 874,000 deaths and 13.7 million internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees. The health and humanitarian sectors have been severely affected by the protracted, complex conflict and have relied heavily on donor aid in the last decade. This study examines the extent and implications of health aid displacement in Syria during acute humanitarian health crises from 2011 to 2019.MethodsWe conducted a trend analysis on data related to humanitarian and health aid for Syria between 2011 and 2019 from the OECD’s Creditor Reporting System. We linked the data obtained for health aid displacement to four key dimensions of the Syrian conflict. The data were compared with other fragile states. We conducted a workshop in Turkey and key informants with experts, policy makers and aid practitioners involved in the humanitarian and health response in Syria between August and October 2021 to corroborate the quantitative data obtained by analysing aid repository data.ResultsThe findings suggest that there was health aid displacement in Syria during key periods of crisis by a few key donors, such as the EU, Germany, Norway and Canada supporting responses to certain humanitarian crises. However, considering that the value of humanitarian aid is 50 times that of health aid, this displacement cannot be considered as critical. Also, there was insufficient evidence of health displacement across all donors.The results also showed that the value of health aid as a proportion of aggregate health and humanitarian aid is only 2% in Syria, compared to 22% for the combined average of fragile states, which further indicates the predominance of humanitarian aid over health aid in the Syrian crisis context.ConclusionThis study highlights that in very complex conflict-affected contexts such as Syria, it is difficult to suggest the use of health aid displacement as an effective tool for aid-effectiveness for donors as it does not reflect domestic needs and priorities. Yet there seems to be evidence of slight displacement for individual donors. However, we can suggest that donors vastly prefer to focus their investment in the humanitarian sector rather than the health sector in conflict-affected areas. There is an urgent need to increase donors’ focus on Syria’s health development aid and adopt the humanitarian-development-peace nexus to improve aid effectiveness that aligns with the increasing health needs of local communities, including IDPs, in this protracted conflict.

Legacies of Survival: Historical Violence and Ethnic Minority Behavior

How is the electoral behavior of minorities shaped by past violence? Recent studies found that displacement increases hostility between perpetrators and displaced individuals, but there has been paltry research on members of surviving communities. We argue that the latter exhibit the opposite pattern because of their different condition. Violence will cause cross-generational vulnerability, fear and risk-aversion—leading the surviving communities to seek protection and avoid conflict by signalling loyalty and rejecting nationalist movements. In their situation as an excluded minority in the perpetrators’ state, they will be more likely to vote for out-group parties. Exploiting exogenous battlefield dynamics that created inter-regional variation in the Palestinian exodus (1947–1949), microlevel measurements that capture the damage of violence, and an original longitudinal data set, we show that Palestinian villages in Israel more severely impacted by the 1948 war have a much higher vote share to Jewish parties even 70 years later. Survey evidence further supports our theory, revealing that this pattern exists only for members of the surviving communities, and not among displaced individuals. The findings shed new light on the complex social relations that guide political decision-making in post-war settings and divided societies that suffer from protracted conflicts.

Implementing a constructive struggle approach: Insights from a training program for security forces prior to executing a government evacuation policy in the context of a protracted conflict

AbstractThis article describes the contribution and insights of adopting practices that support a strategy of non‐violent resistance, and a constructive conflict approach (constructive struggle) that endeavors to minimize physical and psychological harm, and prevent escalation that leads to destructive conflict. It describes the exposure of security forces to such practices in the context of the protracted Israeli‐Palestinian conflict. The article demonstrates how interactions attended by high tensions and resistance can be conducted constructively, in contrast with similar situations in the past, when use of force and authority was considered legitimate, even though it frequently resulted in worsened relations between the sides to the conflict. Specifically, the article focuses on the case of a training program that was created for the evacuating forces prior to implementation of the Disengagement Plan. It also describes insights on the complex interactions between the sides (security forces versus settlers), with emphasis on the tools that helped them successfully execute their task, and prevent escalation of the conflict.

Europeans’ support for refugees of varying background is stable over time

Protracted global conflicts during the past decade have led to repeated major humanitarian protection crises in Europe. During the height of the Syrian refugee crisis at the end of 2015, Europe hosted around 2.3 million people requesting asylum1. Today, the ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in one of the largest humanitarian emergencies in Europe since World War II, with more than eight million Ukrainians seeking refuge across Europe2. Here we explore whether repeated humanitarian crises threaten to exhaust solidarity and whether Europeans welcome Ukrainian asylum seekers over other asylum seekers3,4. We conducted repeat conjoint experiments during the 2015–2016 and 2022 refugee crises, asking 33,000 citizens in 15 European countries to evaluate randomly varied profiles of asylum seekers. We find that public preferences for asylum seekers with specific attributes have remained remarkably stable and general support has, if anything, increased slightly over time. Ukrainian asylum seekers were welcomed in 2022, with their demographic, religious and displacement profile having a larger role than their nationality. Yet, this welcome did not come at the expense of support for other marginalized refugee groups, such as Muslim refugees. These findings have implications for our theoretical understanding of the drivers and resilience of public attitudes towards refugees and for policymakers tasked to find effective responses to the enduring stress on the asylum system5–8.

Rethinking self-determination: colonial and relational geographies in Asia

ABSTRACT This paper argues for a geographical analysis of self-determination by bringing literature on self-determination into dialogue with scholarship on postcolonial geographies and relational space. First, we draw from scholarship that conceptualises colonialism, including non-European colonialism, as playing out differently in different places. This shines a spotlight on a set of self-determination claims, which are resolutely anti-colonial but do not fit neatly into existing conceptions of saltwater and settler colonialism. Second, we discuss three communities who make such claims: the Nagas, the Tibetans, and the Karen. These communities have recently rearticulated the right to self-determination as a mechanism for progressing their causes amidst protracted conflicts and political stasis. In each case, we explore how self-determination is a relationally constituted claim, informed by interactions across various sites and scales. Paying attention to moments, events, and practices foregrounds the tensions that underpin how self-determination is claimed and realised, encompassing: who has the agency to speak on behalf of the ‘people’; the scale at which self-determination is articulated; and how territory is understood vis-à-vis self-determination. This demonstrates how a geographical approach can drive critical analyses of self-determination as a right that is being reworked on the ground, imbued with aspirational and regenerative politics.

PARTICIPATION OF FPU (FORMED POLICE UNIT) 8 INDONESIA IN UNAMID IN DARFUR, SUDAN PERIOD 2016-2017

This study aims to analyze the involvement of Indonesian FPU (8) at UNAMID in Darfur, Sudan Period 2016-2017. To analyze the case, the author uses several concepts such as, Ethnic Conflict, Preventive Diplomacy, Humanitarian Intervention and Peace Keeping. This research is a qualitative research. The results of this study show that in an effort to muffling a protracted conflict in Darfur-Sudan, caused by the Janjaweed militia and support from Sudanese government that resulted in Ethnic Genocide on Darfur, Sudan. Seen from the prolonged conflict in Darfur, PBB issued a joint Resolution in Darfur-Sudan, called UNAMID (United Nations-African Mission in Darfur). Indonesia as a country that maintain peace feels compelled to participate in peace and security missions in Darfur- Sudan. With the agreement between the United Nations and Indonesia, Indonesia sent the FPU Police Task Force to Darfur-Sudan as a Peace Operation to stop the conflict in Darfur, Sudan. In his duty FPU 8 Indonesia as PKO, has important duties: 1) Maintain Conflict in the form of ceasefire and humanitarian protection and, 2) Conserve peace in the form of human rights and humanitarian aid.

Drivers of crisis in the Greek-Turkish protracted conflict: a Neoclassical Realist reading

ABSTRACT Greece and Turkey have been involved in a protracted conflict over the Aegean Sea for decades. After a period of relative calm, Greek-Turkish relations started to deteriorate again in the mid-2010s, culminating in a months-long crisis that began in 2020 and ushered the two countries into unchartered waters. This article focuses on what led to the rekindling of the Greek-Turkish protracted conflict and, particularly, the breakout of the 2020 crisis. Adopting a Neoclassical Realist framework and tracing the international systemic and domestic level drivers that triggered an international crisis prompting each state to engage in a cycle of disruptive interactions, this article argues that shifts in the international and regional system since the late 2000s were crucial in creating a strategic environment conducive to a crisis. At the same time, leader images and domestic considerations had a critical intervening role in filtering systemic stimuli and contributing to the outbreak of the crisis.

The elephant is in the room: Diversity regimes, liminality and play in a dialog program for Palestinian-Arab and Jewish students in an Israeli university

How do higher education institutions “do” diversity in the context of protracted national conflict? The present study examines a diversity and inclusion program in an Israeli university through a case study of one of the program’s initiatives in practice: a dialog workshop for Palestinian-Arab and Jewish students. Analyzing observational, interview and documentary data, and drawing on the theoretical constructs of liminality and play, we explore the workshop as a liminal space within a de-politicized diversity regime. We contribute to critical diversity literature by exploring the unfolding of inclusion work in the context of protracted national conflict, in which the university’s policy of imposing a strict apolitical agenda resulted in benign commitment to diversity and inclusion, as well as silencing of staff and students who attempted to bring up “off-limits” topics. We also contribute to research on liminality and play in organizational contexts by examining the dialog workshop as a case of a structured and regulated liminal space. In particular, we reveal how leisure time and play, specifically role play and role reversal, serve as “small openings”: outlets for experimentation and reflection within the predetermined confines of the liminal space.

Towards Effective Positive Interventions in Protracted Somali Environmental Conflicts: An HPD Operationalization Framework Informed by Socio-Demographics, Familiarity, and Experience

Towards Effective Positive Interventions in Protracted Somali Environmental Conflicts: An HPD Operationalization Framework Informed by Socio-Demographics, Familiarity, and Experience

The Role of Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus in Addressing Protracted Environmental Conflicts in Somalia: A Critical Review

The Role of Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus in Addressing Protracted Environmental Conflicts in Somalia: A Critical Review

Role of the Humanitarian – Development – Peace (HDP) Nexus evidence in Tackling Protracted Environmental Conflicts in Somalia

Role of the Humanitarian – Development – Peace (HDP) Nexus evidence in Tackling Protracted Environmental Conflicts in Somalia

Side-by-Sidedness: A Conceptual Rethinking of Post-Peace Agreement Encounter

ABSTRACT Between the poles of conflict and reconciliation are the complex and simple interactions of the everyday. This article introduces the conceptual development of ‘side-by-sidedness’ – a form of ‘lightened encounter’ that is civilly inattentive to differences and divisions, thus contributing to improved relationships between individuals in violent protracted conflict. Emerging from a case study centred on the supporters of the Belfast Giants ice hockey club, this concept is developed around shifts in identity, encounter and space that occur through the willingness to sit side-by-side across historical divisions at ice hockey games without a necessary willingness to live side-by-side the person in the seat next to you. The case study is utilised as an unorthodox meeting point – the ice hockey arena of Northern Ireland sits outside the disputed histories in the region and yet offers a banality in the inclusion of the ‘other’. Side-by-sidedness thus lies between the narratives and imagery of a divided past and that of a reconciled, hand-in-hand future, instead identifying the willingness to share space as a means of ‘getting on with it’ in everyday Belfast.

Policy versus practice: Syrian refugee doctors in Egypt

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has renewed interest in streamlining processes which allow refugee doctors and other healthcare workers to make up for the shortfall in healthcare delivery, which many countries are facing increasingly. The protracted conflict in Syria is the biggest driver of forced displacement internationally with refugees, including healthcare workers seeking safety in host countries, however many face challenges to entering the workforce in a timely manner. The majority are in countries surrounding Syria (Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey) however the restrictive labour policies in these countries, particularly for healthcare workers have forced many to look further afield to Europe or the Gulf. Egypt’s context is interesting in this regard, as it hosts a smaller number of registered Syrian refugees and was initially welcoming of Syrian medical students and doctors. However, recent socio-political changes have led to restrictions in training and work, leading doctors who initially considering staying in Egypt to increasingly consider it a transit country rather than a destination country. Here, we explore the processes by which Syrian doctors in Egypt can work and how documented policies may differ to practice. We do this through a document review and from the first-hand experiences of the authors.

The meaning of hope for Israeli peace activists: consolidation of collective identity, antidote to despair and spiritual resource

Twenty years after the outbreak of the Second Intifada and with the collapse of the Oslo Peace Process, many Israelis perceive the conflict with Palestinians as inevitable and unsolvable, yet some still mobilise for peace. This article investigates the meaning of hope for Jewish and Arab-Palestinian peace activists who joined the two newest peace movements in Israel, Women Wage Peace (2014) and Standing Together (2015). The article draws on qualitative methodologies – in-depth interviews with activists and ethnographic work conducted from 2018 to 2021. It finds that within the context of a protracted conflict, in addition to the distant and more abstract objective of peace, activists view hope as an objective in and of itself. As an attachment to a political vision, a capacity to imagine positive change or a visceral substance, activists embrace hope to consolidate their collective identity, protect themselves from crippling emotions such as despair, resignation and cynicism and/or regain spirituality. Far from being a fraudulent form of hope, the article suggests that this is a radical, authentic and active form of hope to save what can be a political vision, the shattered dream of peace, that remains central to the activists’ sense of identity and belonging. This hope is valuable: it mobilises Israeli peace activists and allows them to avoid despair as they refuse to accept the protracted conflict reality as an unchangeable given.

A framework for community health worker optimisation in conflict settings: prerequisites and possibilities from Northwest Syria

BackgroundThe world will face a human resource gap of 10 million health workers in 2030. Community health workers (CHWs) can contribute to mitigating this workforce gap while improving equitable access...

Predicting the Potential Impact of Emergency on Global Grain Security: A Case of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Global emergencies have a profound impact on exacerbating food insecurity, and the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged as a significant driver of a global food crisis. Accurately quantifying the impact of this conflict is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. The multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation approach was used to construct a grain security composite index (GSCI). Moreover, econometric model was used to predict the potential impacts of the conflict on global grain security in 2030 under two scenarios: with and without the "Russia-Ukraine conflict". The results conclude that global food prices reached unprecedented levels as a consequence of the conflict, leading to notable fluctuations in food prices, especially with a significant surge in wheat prices. The conflict had a negative impact on global grain security, resulting in a decline in grain security from 0.538 to 0.419. Predictions indicate that the influence of the conflict on global grain security will be substantially greater compared to the scenario without the conflict in 2023-2030, ranging from 0.033 to 0.13. Furthermore, grain security will first decrease and then increase under the sustained consequences of the conflict. The achievement of the 2030 sustainable development goals will encounter significant challenges in light of these circumstances.