Prediction Of Protein-ligand Binding Affinities Research Articles

Representability of algebraic topology for biomolecules in machine learning based scoring and virtual screening.

This work introduces a number of algebraic topology approaches, including multi-component persistent homology, multi-level persistent homology, and electrostatic persistence for the representation, characterization, and description of small molecules and biomolecular complexes. In contrast to the conventional persistent homology, multi-component persistent homology retains critical chemical and biological information during the topological simplification of biomolecular geometric complexity. Multi-level persistent homology enables a tailored topological description of inter- and/or intra-molecular interactions of interest. Electrostatic persistence incorporates partial charge information into topological invariants. These topological methods are paired with Wasserstein distance to characterize similarities between molecules and are further integrated with a variety of machine learning algorithms, including k-nearest neighbors, ensemble of trees, and deep convolutional neural networks, to manifest their descriptive and predictive powers for protein-ligand binding analysis and virtual screening of small molecules. Extensive numerical experiments involving 4,414 protein-ligand complexes from the PDBBind database and 128,374 ligand-target and decoy-target pairs in the DUD database are performed to test respectively the scoring power and the discriminatory power of the proposed topological learning strategies. It is demonstrated that the present topological learning outperforms other existing methods in protein-ligand binding affinity prediction and ligand-decoy discrimination.

Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations in Drug Discovery: Recent Advances and Practical Considerations.

Accurate in silico prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities has been a primary objective of structure-based drug design for decades due to the putative value it would bring to the drug discovery process. However, computational methods have historically failed to deliver value in real-world drug discovery applications due to a variety of scientific, technical, and practical challenges. Recently, a family of approaches commonly referred to as relative binding free energy (RBFE) calculations, which rely on physics-based molecular simulations and statistical mechanics, have shown promise in reliably generating accurate predictions in the context of drug discovery projects. This advance arises from accumulating developments in the underlying scientific methods (decades of research on force fields and sampling algorithms) coupled with vast increases in computational resources (graphics processing units and cloud infrastructures). Mounting evidence from retrospective validation studies, blind challenge predictions, and prospective applications suggests that RBFE simulations can now predict the affinity differences for congeneric ligands with sufficient accuracy and throughput to deliver considerable value in hit-to-lead and lead optimization efforts. Here, we present an overview of current RBFE implementations, highlighting recent advances and remaining challenges, along with examples that emphasize practical considerations for obtaining reliable RBFE results. We focus specifically on relative binding free energies because the calculations are less computationally intensive than absolute binding free energy (ABFE) calculations and map directly onto the hit-to-lead and lead optimization processes, where the prediction of relative binding energies between a reference molecule and new ideas (virtual molecules) can be used to prioritize molecules for synthesis. We describe the critical aspects of running RBFE calculations, from both theoretical and applied perspectives, using a combination of retrospective literature examples and prospective studies from drug discovery projects. This work is intended to provide a contemporary overview of the scientific, technical, and practical issues associated with running relative binding free energy simulations, with a focus on real-world drug discovery applications. We offer guidelines for improving the accuracy of RBFE simulations, especially for challenging cases, and emphasize unresolved issues that could be improved by further research in the field.

Integration of element specific persistent homology and machine learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction.

Protein-ligand binding is a fundamental biological process that is paramount to many other biological processes, such as signal transduction, metabolic pathways, enzyme construction, cell secretion, and gene expression. Accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is vital to rational drug design and the understanding of protein-ligand binding and binding induced function. Existing binding affinity prediction methods are inundated with geometric detail and involve excessively high dimensions, which undermines their predictive power for massive binding data. Topology provides the ultimate level of abstraction and thus incurs too much reduction in geometric information. Persistent homology embeds geometric information into topological invariants and bridges the gap between complex geometry and abstract topology. However, it oversimplifies biological information. This work introduces element specific persistent homology (ESPH) or multicomponent persistent homology to retain crucial biological information during topological simplification. The combination of ESPH and machine learning gives rise to a powerful paradigm for macromolecular analysis. Tests on 2 large data sets indicate that the proposed topology-based machine-learning paradigm outperforms other existing methods in protein-ligand binding affinity predictions. ESPH reveals protein-ligand binding mechanism that can not be attained from other conventional techniques. The present approach reveals that protein-ligand hydrophobic interactions are extended to 40Å away from the binding site, which has a significant ramification to drug and protein design.

Rigidity Strengthening: A Mechanism for Protein-Ligand Binding.

Protein-ligand binding is essential to almost all life processes. The understanding of protein-ligand interactions is fundamentally important to rational drug and protein design. Based on large scale data sets, we show that protein rigidity strengthening or flexibility reduction is a mechanism in protein-ligand binding. Our approach based solely on rigidity is able to unveil a surprisingly apparently long-range contribution of apparently four residue layers to protein-ligand binding, which has ramifications for drug and protein design. Additionally, the present work reveals that among various pairwise interactions, the short-range ones within the distance of the van der Waals diameter are most important. It is found that the present approach outperforms all other state-of-the-art scoring functions for protein-ligand binding affinity predictions of two benchmark test sets.

Structural and Sequence Similarity Makes a Significant Impact on Machine-Learning-Based Scoring Functions for Protein-Ligand Interactions.

The prediction of protein-ligand binding affinity has recently been improved remarkably by machine-learning-based scoring functions. For example, using a set of simple descriptors representing the atomic distance counts, the RF-Score improves the Pearson correlation coefficient to about 0.8 on the core set of the PDBbind 2007 database, which is significantly higher than the performance of any conventional scoring function on the same benchmark. A few studies have been made to discuss the performance of machine-learning-based methods, but the reason for this improvement remains unclear. In this study, by systemically controlling the structural and sequence similarity between the training and test proteins of the PDBbind benchmark, we demonstrate that protein structural and sequence similarity makes a significant impact on machine-learning-based methods. After removal of training proteins that are highly similar to the test proteins identified by structure alignment and sequence alignment, machine-learning-based methods trained on the new training sets do not outperform the conventional scoring functions any more. On the contrary, the performance of conventional functions like X-Score is relatively stable no matter what training data are used to fit the weights of its energy terms.

Feature functional theory–binding predictor (FFT–BP) for the blind prediction of binding free energies

We present a feature functional theory–binding predictor (FFT–BP) for the protein–ligand binding affinity prediction. The underpinning assumptions of FFT–BP are as follows: (1) representability: There exists a microscopic feature vector that can uniquely characterize and distinguish one protein–ligand complex from another; (2) feature–function relationship: the macroscopic features, including binding free energy, of a complex is a functional of microscopic feature vectors; and (3) similarity: molecules with similar microscopic features have similar macroscopic features, such as binding affinity. Physical models, such as implicit solvent models and quantum theory, are utilized to extract microscopic features, while machine learning algorithms are employed to rank the similarity among protein–ligand complexes. A large variety of numerical validations and tests confirms the accuracy and robustness of the proposed FFT–BP model. The root-mean-square errors of FFT–BP blind predictions of a benchmark set of 100 complexes, the PDBBind v2007 core set of 195 complexes and the PDBBind v2015 core set of 195 complexes are 1.99, 2.02 and 1.92 kcal/mol, respectively. Their corresponding Pearson correlation coefficients are 0.75, 0.80, and 0.78, respectively.

Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations Applied to Protein Homology Models.

A significant challenge and potential high-value application of computer-aided drug design is the accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities. Free energy perturbation (FEP) using molecular dynamics (MD) sampling is among the most suitable approaches to achieve accurate binding free energy predictions, due to the rigorous statistical framework of the methodology, correct representation of the energetics, and thorough treatment of the important degrees of freedom in the system (including explicit waters). Recent advances in sampling methods and force fields coupled with vast increases in computational resources have made FEP a viable technology to drive hit-to-lead and lead optimization, allowing for more efficient cycles of medicinal chemistry and the possibility to explore much larger chemical spaces. However, previous FEP applications have focused on systems with high-resolution crystal structures of the target as starting points-something that is not always available in drug discovery projects. As such, the ability to apply FEP on homology models would greatly expand the domain of applicability of FEP in drug discovery. In this work we apply a particular implementation of FEP, called FEP+, on congeneric ligand series binding to four diverse targets: a kinase (Tyk2), an epigenetic bromodomain (BRD4), a transmembrane GPCR (A2A), and a protein-protein interaction interface (BCL-2 family protein MCL-1). We apply FEP+ using both crystal structures and homology models as starting points and find that the performance using homology models is generally on a par with the results when using crystal structures. The robustness of the calculations to structural variations in the input models can likely be attributed to the conformational sampling in the molecular dynamics simulations, which allows the modeled receptor to adapt to the "real" conformation for each ligand in the series. This work exemplifies the advantages of using all-atom simulation methods with full system flexibility and offers promise for the general application of FEP to homology models, although additional validation studies should be performed to further understand the limitations of the method and the scenarios where FEP will work best.

A D3R prospective evaluation of machine learning for protein-ligand scoring.

We assess the performance of several machine learning-based scoring methods at protein-ligand pose prediction, virtual screening, and binding affinity prediction. The methods and the manner in which they were trained make them sufficiently diverse to evaluate the utility of various strategies for training set curation and binding pose generation, but they share a novel approach to classification in the context of protein-ligand scoring. Rather than explicitly using structural data such as affinity values or information extracted from crystal binding poses for training, we instead exploit the abundance of data available from high-throughput screening to approach the problem as one of discriminating binders from non-binders. We evaluate the performance of our various scoring methods in the 2015 D3R Grand Challenge and find that although the merits of some features of our approach remain inconclusive, our scoring methods performed comparably to a state-of-the-art scoring function that was fit to binding affinity data.

Pred-binding: large-scale protein–ligand binding affinity prediction

Drug target interactions (DTIs) are crucial in pharmacology and drug discovery. Presently, experimental determination of compound–protein interactions remains challenging because of funding investment and difficulties of purifying proteins. In this study, we proposed two in silico models based on support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), using 1589 molecular descriptors and 1080 protein descriptors in 9948 ligand–protein pairs to predict DTIs that were quantified by Ki values. The cross-validation coefficient of determination of 0.6079 for SVM and 0.6267 for RF were obtained, respectively. In addition, the two-dimensional (2D) autocorrelation, topological charge indices and three-dimensional (3D)-MoRSE descriptors of compounds, the autocorrelation descriptors and the amphiphilic pseudo-amino acid composition of protein are found most important for Ki predictions. These models provide a new opportunity for the prediction of ligand–receptor interactions that will facilitate the target discovery and toxicity evaluation in drug development.

Protein-Ligand Electrostatic Binding Free Energies from Explicit and Implicit Solvation.

Accurate yet efficient computational models of solvent environment are central for most calculations that rely on atomistic modeling, such as prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of a recently developed generalized Born implicit solvent model, GBNSR6 (Aguilar et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2010, 6, 3613-3639), in estimating the electrostatic solvation free energies (ΔG(pol)) and binding free energies (ΔΔG(pol)) for small protein-ligand complexes. We also compare estimates based on three different explicit solvent models (TIP3P, TIP4PEw, and OPC). The two main findings are as follows. First, the deviation (RMSD = 7.04 kcal/mol) of GBNSR6 binding affinities from commonly used TIP3P reference values is comparable to the deviations between explicit models themselves, e.g. TIP4PEw vs TIP3P (RMSD = 5.30 kcal/mol). A simple uniform adjustment of the atomic radii by a single scaling factor reduces the RMS deviation of GBNSR6 from TIP3P to within the above "error margin" - differences between ΔΔG(pol) estimated by different common explicit solvent models. The simple radii scaling virtually eliminates the systematic deviation (ΔΔG(pol)) between GBNSR6 and two out of the three explicit water models and significantly reduces the deviation from the third explicit model. Second, the differences between electrostatic binding energy estimates from different explicit models is disturbingly large; for example, the deviation between TIP4PEw and TIP3P estimates of ΔΔG(pol) values can be up to ∼50% or ∼9 kcal/mol, which is significantly larger than the "chemical accuracy" goal of ∼1 kcal/mol. The absolute ΔG(pol) calculated with different explicit models could differ by tens of kcal/mol. These discrepancies point to unacceptably high sensitivity of binding affinity estimates to the choice of common explicit water models. The absence of a clear "gold standard" among these models strengthens the case for the use of accurate implicit solvation models for binding energetics, which may be orders of magnitude faster.

A Comparative Assessment of Predictive Accuracies of Conventional and Machine Learning Scoring Functions for Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction

Accurately predicting the binding affinities of large diverse sets of protein-ligand complexes efficiently is a key challenge in computational biomolecular science, with applications in drug discovery, chemical biology, and structural biology. Since a scoring function (SF) is used to score, rank, and identify potential drug leads, the fidelity with which it predicts the affinity of a ligand candidate for a protein's binding site has a significant bearing on the accuracy of virtual screening. Despite intense efforts in developing conventional SFs, which are either force-field based, knowledge-based, or empirical, their limited predictive accuracy has been a major roadblock toward cost-effective drug discovery. Therefore, in this work, we explore a range of novel SFs employing different machine-learning (ML) approaches in conjunction with a variety of physicochemical and geometrical features characterizing protein-ligand complexes. We assess the scoring accuracies of these new ML SFs as well as those of conventional SFs in the context of the 2007 and 2010 PDBbind benchmark datasets on both diverse and protein-family-specific test sets. We also investigate the influence of the size of the training dataset and the type and number of features used on scoring accuracy. We find that the best performing ML SF has a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.806 between predicted and measured binding affinities compared to 0.644 achieved by a state-of-the-art conventional SF. We also find that ML SFs benefit more than their conventional counterparts from increases in the number of features and the size of training dataset. In addition, they perform better on novel proteins that they were never trained on before.

Improving AutoDock Vina Using Random Forest: The Growing Accuracy of Binding Affinity Prediction by the Effective Exploitation of Larger Data Sets.

There is a growing body of evidence showing that machine learning regression results in more accurate structure-based prediction of protein-ligand binding affinity. Docking methods that aim at optimizing the affinity of ligands for a target rely on how accurate their predicted ranking is. However, despite their proven advantages, machine-learning scoring functions are still not widely applied. This seems to be due to insufficient understanding of their properties and the lack of user-friendly software implementing them. Here we present a study where the accuracy of AutoDock Vina, arguably the most commonly-used docking software, is strongly improved by following a machine learning approach. We also analyse the factors that are responsible for this improvement and their generality. Most importantly, with the help of a proposed benchmark, we demonstrate that this improvement will be larger as more data becomes available for training Random Forest models, as regression models implying additive functional forms do not improve with more training data. We discuss how the latter opens the door to new opportunities in scoring function development. In order to facilitate the translation of this advance to enhance structure-based molecular design, we provide software to directly re-score Vina-generated poses and thus strongly improve their predicted binding affinity. The software is available at http://istar.cse.cuhk.edu.hk/rf-score-3.tgz and http://crcm. marseille.inserm.fr/fileadmin/rf-score-3.tgz.

Comparative Assessment of Scoring Functions on an Updated Benchmark: 2. Evaluation Methods and General Results

Our comparative assessment of scoring functions (CASF) benchmark is created to provide an objective evaluation of current scoring functions. The key idea of CASF is to compare the general performance of scoring functions on a diverse set of protein-ligand complexes. In order to avoid testing scoring functions in the context of molecular docking, the scoring process is separated from the docking (or sampling) process by using ensembles of ligand binding poses that are generated in prior. Here, we describe the technical methods and evaluation results of the latest CASF-2013 study. The PDBbind core set (version 2013) was employed as the primary test set in this study, which consists of 195 protein-ligand complexes with high-quality three-dimensional structures and reliable binding constants. A panel of 20 scoring functions, most of which are implemented in main-stream commercial software, were evaluated in terms of "scoring power" (binding affinity prediction), "ranking power" (relative ranking prediction), "docking power" (binding pose prediction), and "screening power" (discrimination of true binders from random molecules). Our results reveal that the performance of these scoring functions is generally more promising in the docking/screening power tests than in the scoring/ranking power tests. Top-ranked scoring functions in the scoring power test, such as X-Score(HM), ChemScore@SYBYL, ChemPLP@GOLD, and PLP@DS, are also top-ranked in the ranking power test. Top-ranked scoring functions in the docking power test, such as ChemPLP@GOLD, Chemscore@GOLD, GlidScore-SP, LigScore@DS, and PLP@DS, are also top-ranked in the screening power test. Our results obtained on the entire test set and its subsets suggest that the real challenge in protein-ligand binding affinity prediction lies in polar interactions and associated desolvation effect. Nonadditive features observed among high-affinity protein-ligand complexes also need attention.

Free Energy Calculations to Estimate Ligand-Binding Affinities in Structure-Based Drug Design

Post-genomic era has led to the discovery of several new targets posing challenges for structure-based drug design efforts to identify lead compounds. Multiple computational methodologies exist to predict the high ranking hit/lead compounds. Among them, free energy methods provide the most accurate estimate of predicted binding affinity. Pathway-based Free Energy Perturbation (FEP), Thermodynamic Integration (TI) and Slow Growth (SG) as well as less rigorous end-point methods such as Linear interaction energy (LIE), Molecular Mechanics-Poisson Boltzmann./Generalized Born Surface Area (MM-PBSA/GBSA) and λ-dynamics have been applied to a variety of biologically relevant problems. The recent advances in free energy methods and their applications including the prediction of protein-ligand binding affinity for some of the important drug targets have been elaborated. Results using a recently developed Quantum Mechanics (QM)/Molecular Mechanics (MM) based Free Energy Perturbation (FEP) method, which has the potential to provide a very accurate estimation of binding affinities to date has been discussed. A case study for the optimization of inhibitors for the fructose 1,6- bisphosphatase inhibitors has been described.

Solvation Models: Theory and Validation

Water plays an active role in many fundamental phenomena in cellular systems such as molecular recognition, folding and conformational equilibria, reaction kinetics and phase partitioning. Hence, our ability to account for the energetics of these processes is highly dependent on the models we use for calculating solvation effects. For example, theoretical prediction of protein-ligand binding modes (i.e., docking) and binding affinities (i.e., scoring) requires an accurate description of the change in hydration that accompanies solute binding. In this review, we discuss the challenges of constructing solvation models that capture these effects, with an emphasis on continuum models and on more recent developments in the field. In our discussion of methods, relatively greater attention will be given to boundary element solutions to the Poisson equation and to nonpolar solvation models, two areas that have become increasingly important but are likely to be less familiar to many readers. The other focus will be upon the trending efforts for evaluating solvation models in order to uncover limitations, biases, and potentially attractive directions for their improvement and applicability. The prospective and retrospective performance of a variety of solvation models in the SAMPL blind challenges will be discussed in detail. After just a few years, these benchmarking exercises have already had a tangible effect in guiding the improvement of solvation models.

Improved protein–ligand binding affinity prediction by using a curvature-dependent surface-area model

Hydrophobic effect plays a pivotal role in most protein-ligand binding. State-of-the-art protein-ligand scoring methods usually treat hydrophobic free energy as surface tension, which is proportional to interfacial surface area for simplicity and efficiency. However, this treatment ignores the role of molecular shape, which has been found very important by either experimental or theoretical studies. We propose a new empirical scoring function, named Cyscore. Cyscore improves the prediction accuracy by using a novel curvature-dependent surface-area model, which is able to distinguish convex, planar and concave surface in hydrophobic free energy calculation. Benchmark tests show that this model significantly improves the protein-ligand scoring and Cyscore outperforms a variety of well established scoring functions using PDBbind benchmark sets for binding affinity correlation and ranking tests. We expect the curvature-dependent surface-area model and Cyscore would contribute to the study of protein-ligand interactions. Cyscore is available to non-commercial users at http://clab.labshare.cn/software/cyscore.html.

Binding Affinity Prediction for Protein–Ligand Complexes Based onβContacts and B Factor

Accurate determination of protein-ligand binding affinity is a fundamental problem in biochemistry useful for many applications including drug design and protein-ligand docking. A number of scoring functions have been proposed for the prediction of protein-ligand binding affinity. However, accurate prediction is still a challenging problem because poor performance is often seen in the evaluation under the leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation (LCOCV). We introduce a new scoring function named B2BScore to improve the prediction performance. B2BScore integrates two physicochemical properties for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction. One is the property of β contacts. A β contact between two atoms requires no other atoms to interrupt the atomic contact and assumes that the two atoms should have enough direct contact area. The other is the property of B factor to capture the atomic mobility in the dynamic protein-ligand binding process. Tested on the PDBBind2009 data set, B2BScore shows superior prediction performance to existing methods on independent test data as well as under the LCOCV evaluation framework. In particular, B2BScore achieves a significant LCOCV improvement across 26 protein clusters-a big increase of the averaged Pearson's correlation coefficients from 0.418 to 0.518 and a significant decrease of standard deviation of the coefficients from 0.352 to 0.196. We also identified several important and intuitive contact descriptors of protein-ligand binding through the random forest learning in B2BScore. Some of these descriptors are closely related to contacts between carbon atoms without covalent-bond oxygen/nitrogen, preferred contacts of metal ions, interfacial backbone atoms from proteins, or π rings. Some others are negative descriptors relating to those contacts with nitrogen atoms without covalent-bond hydrogens or nonpreferred contacts of metal ions. These descriptors can be directly used to guide protein-ligand docking.

A Comparative Assessment of Ranking Accuracies of Conventional and Machine-Learning-Based Scoring Functions for Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction

Accurately predicting the binding affinities of large sets of protein-ligand complexes efficiently is a key challenge in computational biomolecular science, with applications in drug discovery, chemical biology, and structural biology. Since a scoring function (SF) is used to score, rank, and identify drug leads, the fidelity with which it predicts the affinity of a ligand candidate for a protein's binding site has a significant bearing on the accuracy of virtual screening. Despite intense efforts in developing conventional SFs, which are either force-field based, knowledge-based, or empirical, their limited ranking accuracy has been a major roadblock toward cost-effective drug discovery. Therefore, in this work, we explore a range of novel SFs employing different machine-learning (ML) approaches in conjunction with a variety of physicochemical and geometrical features characterizing protein-ligand complexes. We assess the ranking accuracies of these new ML-based SFs as well as those of conventional SFs in the context of the 2007 and 2010 PDBbind benchmark data sets on both diverse and protein-family-specific test sets. We also investigate the influence of the size of the training data set and the type and number of features used on ranking accuracy. Within clusters of protein-ligand complexes with different ligands bound to the same target protein, we find that the best ML-based SF is able to rank the ligands correctly based on their experimentally determined binding affinities 62.5 percent of the time and identify the top binding ligand 78.1 percent of the time. For this SF, the Spearman correlation coefficient between ranks of ligands ordered by predicted and experimentally determined binding affinities is 0.771. Given the challenging nature of the ranking problem and that SFs are used to screen millions of ligands, this represents a significant improvement over the best conventional SF we studied, for which the corresponding ranking performance values are 57.8 percent, 73.4 percent, and 0.677.

Calculation of Host-Guest Binding Affinities Using a Quantum-Mechanical Energy Model.

The prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is of central interest in computer-aided drug discovery, but it is still difficult to achieve a high degree of accuracy. Recent studies suggesting that available force fields may be a key source of error motivate the present study, which reports the first mining minima (M2) binding affinity calculations based on a quantum mechanical energy model, rather than an empirical force field. We apply a semi-empirical quantum-mechanical energy function, PM6-DH+, coupled with the COSMO solvation model, to 29 host-guest systems with a wide range of measured binding affinities. After correction for a systematic error, which appears to derive from the treatment of polar solvation, the computed absolute binding affinities agree well with experimental measurements, with a mean error 1.6 kcal/mol and a correlation coefficient of 0.91. These calculations also delineate the contributions of various energy components, including solute energy, configurational entropy, and solvation free energy, to the binding free energies of these host-guest complexes. Comparison with our previous calculations, which used empirical force fields, point to significant differences in both the energetic and entropic components of the binding free energy. The present study demonstrates successful combination of a quantum mechanical Hamiltonian with the M2 affinity method.

Blind prediction of host–guest binding affinities: a new SAMPL3 challenge

The computational prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is of central interest in early-stage drug-discovery, and there is a widely recognized need for improved methods. Low molecular weight receptors and their ligands--i.e., host-guest systems--represent valuable test-beds for such affinity prediction methods, because their small size makes for fast calculations and relatively facile numerical convergence. The SAMPL3 community exercise included the first ever blind prediction challenge for host-guest binding affinities, through the incorporation of 11 new host-guest complexes. Ten participating research groups addressed this challenge with a variety of approaches. Statistical assessment indicates that, although most methods performed well at predicting some general trends in binding affinity, overall accuracy was not high, as all the methods suffered from either poor correlation or high RMS errors or both. There was no clear advantage in using explicit versus implicit solvent models, any particular force field, or any particular approach to conformational sampling. In a few cases, predictions using very similar energy models but different sampling and/or free-energy methods resulted in significantly different results. The protonation states of one host and some guest molecules emerged as key uncertainties beyond the choice of computational approach. The present results have implications for methods development and future blind prediction exercises.