Protection Of Ecosystems Research Articles

Evaluating Variables’ Influence on Forwarder Performance and Fuel Efficiency in Mountain Salvage Logging Using an Automatic Work-Element Detection Method

Extreme climate events are increasingly damaging forests, particularly in Europe’s Alps. These disturbances lead to more damaged timber, necessitating rapid salvage operations to preserve timber value and protect ecosystems. However, salvage logging, though essential, raises concerns about its environmental impact, especially on soil conservation and forest regeneration. To mitigate these effects, best practices such as leaving logging residues and avoiding wet soils are recommended. Nevertheless, fuel efficiency remains a critical concern. This study focuses on addressing gaps in understanding forwarder productivity in salvage logging, considering factors such as assortment number, extraction distance, and payload. Utilizing Automatic Work-Element Detection (AWED) for data collection, this study enhances fuel efficiency analysis. Findings show that the average cycle time was 27.4 min, with 4.9 L of fuel consumed per cycle. Each cycle covered 241.3 m, extracting 11.7 m3 of timber, yielding a productivity rate of 31.6 m3 per machine hour and a fuel efficiency of 0.4 L per m3 and per 100 m. Traveling was the most time- and fuel-intensive task. Assortment type significantly impacted loading time and fuel consumption, with short sawlogs requiring fewer crane cycles. Key factors influencing productivity and fuel efficiency were average log volume, distance, payload, and slope.

Research on Climate Drivers of Ecosystem Services’ Value Loss Offset in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Based on Explainable Deep Learning

As one of the highest and most ecologically vulnerable regions in the world, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) presents significant challenges for the application of existing ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment models due to its extreme climate changes and unique plateau environment. Current models often fail to adequately account for the complex climate variability and topographical features of the QTP, making accurate assessments of ESV loss deviations difficult. To address these challenges, this study focuses on the QTP and employs a modified ESV loss deviation model, integrated with explainable deep learning techniques (LSTM-SHAP), to quantify and analyze ESV loss deviations and their climate drivers from 1990 to 2030. The results show that (1) between 1990 and 2020, the offset index in the eastern QTP consistently remained low, indicating significant deviations. Since 2010, low-value clusters in the western region have significantly increased, reflecting a widening range of ecological damage caused by ESV losses, with no marked improvement from 2020 to 2030. (2) SHAP value analysis identified key climate drivers, including temperature seasonality, diurnal temperature variation, and precipitation patterns, which exhibit nonlinear impacts and threshold effects on ESV loss deviation. (3) In the analysis of nonlinear relationships among key climate drivers, the interaction between diurnal temperature range and precipitation in wet seasons demonstrated significant effects, indicating that the synergistic action of temperature variation and precipitation patterns is critical to ecosystem stability. Furthermore, the complex nonlinear interactions between climate factors exacerbated the volatility of ESV loss deviations, particularly under extreme climate conditions. The 2030 forecast highlights that wet season precipitation and annual rainfall will become key factors driving changes in ESV loss deviation. By combining explainable deep learning methods, this study advances the understanding of the relationship between climate drivers and ecosystem service losses, providing scientific insights for ecosystem protection and sustainable management in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

Conservation Under Siege: The Intersection of Tourism and Environmental Threats in Croatian Protected Areas

This paper investigates the illegal activities that may negatively impact the environment in Croatia’s protected areas, particularly those associated with tourism. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and sensitivity analysis are used to identify distinct high-risk activities specific to different park types. Coastal parks are found to be particularly vulnerable to maritime-related illegal activities, with high risk exposure from mooring vessels and swimming in prohibited areas. These parks also face significant risks from illegal fishing and the capture of strictly protected plants and animals, highlighting the need for enhanced marine ecosystem protection. Mountainous and forest parks face significant risks from fire-related activities, while wetland parks are sensitive to poaching and illegal fishing. Additionally, diverse landscape parks show increased vulnerability to littering, poaching, and the collection or harvesting of strictly protected plants and animals. The results underscore the necessity for tailored risk-management strategies that prioritize interventions based on park-specific challenges. By addressing the unique vulnerabilities of each park type, this study contributes insights into mitigating environmental threats posed by tourism and emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive management in protected areas.

Conception of The Precautionary Principle in International Environmental Law: Ecosystem or Humanity?

This paper discusses the concept of the precautionary principle as a bridge between the dichotomy of ecosystem protection and human safety. A pertinent example is the proposed evacuation road in Kerinci, which has yet to receive permission due to its planned route through Kerinci Seblat National Park. The issue is analyzed using a normative approach. The research concludes that the precautionary principle establishes a balance between the objectives of ecosystem safety and human safety as a fundamental right. Therefore, the state must not neglect its responsibilities and should maintain oversight of all policies, ensuring that prior decisions are guided by stringent risk analysis. This approach emphasizes the importance of integrating ecological considerations into development policies, ultimately aiming for sustainable coexistence between human needs and environmental preservation.

An Interpretation of the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention in the Context of Climate Change: Some Reflections

This paper considers whether climate change falls within the scope of the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (UN Watercourses Convention). General principles of treaty interpretation are used to examine various environmental obligations concerning the protection and preservation of ecosystems and the marine environment, pollution, harmful conditions, and emergency situations. While similar analyses have been conducted in relation to other treaties such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, this paper represents a novel analysis with respect to the UN Watercourses Convention. This paper concludes that climate change may be implied into three obligations: the obligation to protect and preserve the ecosystems of international watercourses, the obligation to protect and preserve the marine environment, and the obligation to prevent or mitigate harmful conditions.

Use of Geomatic Techniques for Mapping Suspended Solids in Aquatic Ecosystems: The Case Study of Guayas River, Ecuador

Satellite images cover large remote areas and are useful for detecting and monitoring water bodies. In Ecuador, since 1950, the lower Guayas River basin has undergone significant natural and anthropogenic changes that have impacted its dynamics and sustainability. This study aims to analyze through in situ data and geomatic techniques the change that the river has undergone in a decade by mapping the Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC). Increasing levels of pollution in the river have raised concerns, prompting various approaches to measure and mitigate sedimentation to maintain the sustainable quality of the watershed. The spatiotemporal variations of SSC in the Guayas River revealed a remarkable variability, influenced by the operation of reservoirs, changes in land use, erosion, and sedimentation causing SSC in 2013 to range from 64.82 to 707.06 mg/l in the satellite image of 9/16/2013 and from 87.58 to 933.36 mg/l in the image of 7/26/2023. Understanding this distribution is crucial for the environmental protection and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems. This study used Landsat 8 data, an atmospheric pre-correction, and a remote sensing model. The results indicate a creasing trend of SSC in the stretches of the Guayas River between 2013 and 2023, which allows the understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of suspended sediment transport.

Living closer to the beach is associated with better socioemotional development in young boys.

BackgroundNatural outdoor environments such as green and blue spaces have increasingly been seen as key health and wellbeing determinants for adults. However, it is unclear if these effects are seen in young children. We examined the associations between access to natural green and blue space and young children’s socioemotional development. MethodsCross-sectional baseline data for 1525 young children (median age 3.3 years) in the PLAYCE cohort study were examined. The parent-report Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) total difficulties score was used as a measure of socioemotional development. High-resolution aerial imagery and Geographic Information Systems were used to identify total percentage of neighbourhood vegetation and vegetation components (grass, shrubs, and trees) and total percentage of blue space (ocean, riverways and lakes and swamps) for 1600m network service areas and 5000m buffer areas around children’s residences. Road network distance to the closest beach, patrolled beach and dog beach were also calculated. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to examine the associations between green and blue space variables and children’s total difficulties score, adjusting for covariates. ResultsSeveral associations were observed amongst young boys’ socioemotional development and distance to the closest beach and patrolled beach, with boys’ socioemotional development improving with decreasing distance to the beach even after adjusting for neighbourhood socioeconomic status. No significant associations were found between the amount of neighbourhood blue space or vegetation within the 1600m or 5000m service area and preschooler social and emotional development. ConclusionsThese findings highlight the potential benefit of living closer to a beach for socioemotional development, particularly for young boys. Our findings have implications for urban planning in terms of the need for improved access to beaches and the protection of natural environments to support young children’s development.

Impacts of Climate Change Conditions on the Potential Distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis and Its Host Plants, Salix babylonica and Salix matsudana, in China.

The Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) is a phytophagous pest that is seriously endangering Salix babylonica Linn. and S. matsudana Koidz. Poor control can damage local ecosystems, resulting in economic losses and management risks. In the context of climate change, the climatic ecological niche of organisms is no longer compatible with the surrounding environment. To mitigate the effects of climate change, some organisms respond adaptively to climate change through different mechanisms and in different ways. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to explore the potential distribution areas of A. glabripennis and its host plants, S. babylonica and S. matsudana, in response to current and future climate and to determine their movement routes and relative dynamics. The results show that the optimized model exhibits the lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. It is important to note that both temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for A. glabripennis and its host plants. This is evidenced by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month being the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for the host plants. Similarly, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the primary bioclimatic variables constraining the dispersal of A. glabripennis. Under climate change, the suitable areas of both S. babylonica and S. matsudana are declining, while the suitable areas of A. glabripennis are expanding in future climates. Furthermore, three species exhibited a proclivity for migration to higher latitudes in response to climate change. In conclusion, this study contributes to our understanding of the biogeographic characteristics of these A. glabripennis, S. babylonica, and S. matsudana and provides a basis for the formulation of timely conservation strategies to reduce the potential impacts of climate change. This is of great significance for the rational management, utilization, and protection of forest ecosystems in China.

Integrating time series Sentinel-2 images and tide height to mapping tidal flats in the Chinese mainland

As a unique and important ecosystem, tidal flats provide a variety of ecosystem functions and services. Mapping tidal flats is essential for the protection and management of coastal ecosystems. However, large-scale tidal flats mapping still faces challenges due to the tidal variation and spectral similarity between tidal flats and inland wetlands. Previous methods rely on the coastlines or maximum seawater extent to exclude inland areas, which is limited by its inability to effectively differentiate tidal flats from spectrally similar inland wetlands. To address these issues, we proposed a new tidal-flat mapping method by integrating Sentinel-2 time series imagery with tide height (TH) data from ground-based tide stations on Google Earth Engine. We first generated images at the lowest and highest tidal stages, established the statistical relationship between the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) of each pixel and TH, and then concatenated them into a Random Forest classifier for further classification. The statistical relationship between NDWI and TH amplified the difference between tidal flats and inland wetlands, thus significantly reducing the influence of spectral similarity. This method could produce a high-precision tidal flats map with an overall accuracy of 97.30% in the coastal zone of the Chinese mainland. By quantitatively comparing with the previous tidal flat maps, we found that the strategies of tidal-level information simulation and inland area exclusion were the two main reasons producing the differences among the maps. The proposed method does not rely on space constraints to exclude inland wetlands and can capture more estuarine tidal flats, so it can be used as a reliable means to monitor the tidal flats in large-scale areas.

Design and development of coastal marine water quality monitoring based on IoT in achieving implementation of SDGs

Indonesia, an archipelagic nation with about 70% ocean territory, relies on oceanographic data for efficient marine environment monitoring and natural resource sustainability. Current data collection is limited by tools measuring only single parameters and lengthy data collection times. This study proposes a marine coastal water quality monitoring tool based on the internet of things (IoT), capable of simultaneously measuring temperature, electrical conductivity, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Utilizing an Atmega328 and a battery lasting up to 119 hours, this system offers a cost-effective solution for real-time oceanographic data collection. Employing the ADDIE methodology, the results demonstrate high measurement accuracy compared to traditional methods, with accuracy of 90.5% for temperature, 93.50% for electrical conductivity, 93.67% for pH, and 96.82% for dissolved oxygen. The development of this tool aims to reduce costs and labor in capturing oceanographic data integrated with IoT, facilitate access and monitoring of water data, and make a significant contribution to achieving SDGs targets. The main focus on the goals of addressing climate change and life underwater, especially in the aspects of water resources management and protection of marine ecosystems in Indonesian.

Surplus or deficit? Quantification of carbon sources and sinks and analysis of driving mechanisms of typical oasis urban agglomeration ecosystems

The relationship between carbon sources and sinks, along with their balance, is a crucial indicator for assessing ecosystem health. Ecosystem protection mitigates climate change and promotes the carbon cycle balance. Consequently, to effectively assess the status of carbon sources and sinks in an oasis ecosystem, this study utilized remote sensing and statistical data to estimate the natural carbon sources and sinks, energy carbon emissions(ECE), and carbon surpluses or deficits in the urban agglomeration of the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains(UANSTM) for a period 2000–2022 from a perspective of the natural-social-economic system. The driving mechanisms were analyzed using the optimal geodetector model (OPGD) and generalized divisia index method (GDIM). The results show(1) throughout the study period, natural carbon sources and sinks in the UANSTM exhibited a distribution pattern that diminished from the Tianshan Mountains axis northward and southward, accompanied by a fluctuating increase over time. ECE predominantly occurred in urban built-up areas and adjacent cultivated lands, totaling an increase of 88.48 × 104 TgC. (2) The change trend showed an overall predominance of carbon sources, with the rate of increase of carbon sources being greater than that of carbon sinks. Grassland-cultivated land and construction land interaction area exhibited significant changes in carbon sources and sinks. (3) During the study period, the UANSTM experienced a consistent carbon deficit, averaging −68.11 TgC annually. Spatially, this deficit evolved from discrete points to linear and then to areal patterns. (4) Precipitation and elevation were the primary determinants of natural carbon sources and sinks. Whereas GDP with a contribution of 50.4%,was the predominant driver of ECE across each prefecture-level city. Development of policies that synergize regional natural and socioeconomic systems is an important means of achieving a carbon balance. The results of this study provide a reference for adding a research paradigm on carbon sources and sinks in oasis urban agglomerations and for low-carbon development.

Stable Isotope Ratio and Elemental Analysis (CNS) in Mangrove Leaves in the Creek Ecosystem: An Indicator of Coastal Marine Pollution

AbstractThe stable isotopes ratio and elemental composition in the mangrove leaves are excellent indicators for coastal marine pollution. The present study investigated the composition of Carbon, Nitrogen, and Sulfur, δ13C and δ15N values in mangrove leaves to identify the source of pollution and energy to the mangroves in the creek ecosystem of Mumbai Harbour Bay. The oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) of leaf water were estimated to understand the relative contribution of freshwater and seawater to the mangrove's water source. The Carbon, Nitrogen and Sulfur contents were found to vary from 37.79 to 42.55% (Average: 40.06 ± 1.54%), 2.13–3.79% (Average: 2.94 ± 0.45%) and 0.37–0.81% (Average: 0.53 ± 0.14%) in the mangrove leaves, respectively. The δ13C and δ15N values were found to vary from − 30.43 to − 28.41‰ (Average: − 29.46 ± 0.74‰) and from − 2.67 to 5.54‰ (Average: 2.21 ± 3.20%), respectively. The δ18O and δ2H values were found to vary from − 2.7 to 0.83‰ and − 6.86 to 5.43‰ with an average of − 0.94 ± 0.83 and − 2.03 ± 3.52‰ respectively. According to the observed δ18O and δ2H values, mangroves in the northern part had a relatively higher contribution of freshwater input compared to southern part of the study area. The lower values of δ15N towards the northern end of the creek indicate a relatively higher contribution of nitrogen from industrial discharges. Similar values of δ13C in mangrove in the region suggest a common source of carbon. Mangroves found near discharge locations have different elemental composition and δ15N values compared to those mangroves that are not located near discharge location. These differences can be used as potential markers to identify the coastal marine pollution. The results of the present study may be used for developing rational approaches for protection and conservation of the mangrove ecosystem in the bay.

Effects of heavy metal concentration on zooplankton community composition and abundance in the Yellow Sea coast

The coastal area of the Yellow Sea is a highly urbanized and industrialized region in China, which has been severely polluted because of intensive human activities. And the heavy metals (HMs) pollution has posed a serious threat to aquatic environments and ecosystem health. However, most studies have focused on the toxicity and bio-accumulation of HMs in zooplankton, while neglecting their effects on the overall community structure. To address the gap in this field, four research cruises was conducted in 2022 to analyze the concentrations of representative HMs (Hg, As, Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd) in surface seawater along the Yellow Sea coast, as well as the composition and abundance of zooplankton communities, aiming to assess the potential ecological impacts in the region. The results indicated that the concentrations of the six HMs in the seawater were in the low to moderate range. Analytical results showed that Zn and As were key metals influencing the abundance and community composition of zooplankton along the Yellow Sea coast: an increase in Zn concentration, coupled with a decrease in As concentration, was associated with an increase in total zooplankton abundance and a more diverse community. The most frequently occurring zooplankton in the survey were copepods, which exhibited a higher tolerance to HMs. Additionally, the significant fluctuations of Zn, As, and Hg during spring and autumn led to explosive growth of Noctiluca scintillans. We observed that the influence of HMs on marine zooplankton was not isolated but rather interacts with multiple factors. Overall, this study highlights the possibility of alterations in marine ecological structures due to changes in HMs concentration levels. It underscores the importance of continuous monitoring of heavy metal concentrations in the Yellow Sea for the long-term protection of marine ecosystems.

A Marine Tourism Management Model Based on Community-Based Tourism and Its Role in Increasing The Income of Coastal Communities in Balikpapan City

This study aims to describe the management of community-based tourism in the coastal area of Balikpapan City, analyze the suitability between the assessment of interests and expectations of the community towards the implementation of CBT dimensions, and determine the effect of marine tourism development on increasing the income of coastal communities. Data analysis was conducted using Quantitative Descriptive Analysis, Importance-Performance Analysis, and Multiple Regression Analysis. The results show that the management of community-based marine tourism in the coastal area of Balikpapan City is generally in the good category. Multiple linear regression analysis shows that CBT-based marine tourism has a significant influence on increasing the income of coastal communities. Practical suggestions include increasing the protection and conservation of coastal ecosystems through the involvement of visitors and coastal communities, as well as involving the community more in tourism-related policy making

How heatwaves impact microalgae in the presence of environmentally relevant PFAS concentration: Metabolic shifts and challenges posed

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are widely distributed in the aquatic environment. While increasing studies have investigated the effects of specific PFAS exposure on microalgae, the impact of environmentally relevant PFAS concentrations, particularly during extreme weather events like heatwaves, remains unclear. For Microcystis aeruginosa, a cyanobacteria causing harmful algal blooms, PFAS exposure promoted growth and photosynthesis by accelerating the TCA cycle, intensifying carbon/nitrogen and nucleotide metabolism, and enhancing antioxidant expression. Moreover, although heatwave exposure alone adversely affected algal growth, co-exposure to PFAS and heatwaves paradoxically enhanced algal growth. This co-exposure also enhanced the expression of photosynthetic pigments and metabolites involved in alanine, aspartate and glutamate metabolism, as well as arginine and proline metabolism (compared to PFAS exposure alone). Nevertheless, co-exposure intensified oxidative stress, leading to differential expression of antioxidants, which may consequently affect the synthesis of membrane lipids. In addition, PFAS adsorption and uptake are primarily influenced by the varying strengths of PFAS molecules in binding with proteins and notably boosted by heatwaves. This study highlights the role of diverse PFAS in microalgae blooms and the influence of heatwave events on pollutant responses, providing scientific foundations for aquatic ecosystem protection against climate and pollution challenges.

A mindset toward greening the blue economy: Analyzing social environmental awareness of aquatic ecosystem protection

To help address global water pollution challenges, this article explores the interconnections between public awareness, education, social engagement, and knowledge transfer in promoting sustainable water resource management. The socialization, externalization, combination, and internalization (SECI) model and the transtheoretical model of change (TMC) are used to examine how education and awareness can influence citizens' behavior. The article also assesses the contribution of the entrepreneurial sector to aquatic biodiversity conservation and pollution reduction. The analysis is based on Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests, as well as several machine learning regression and classification algorithms. This analysis sheds light on the complex relationships between awareness, education, engagement, and knowledge transfer. A key aspect of this study is the analysis of demographic data. This analysis reveals varying perceptions and levels of engagement with aquatic ecosystem protection across different demographic groups. The results indicate variations by age, gender, occupation, and education level, highlighting the importance of tailored educational and social engagement strategies. Additionally, the results underscore the pivotal role of entrepreneurs in developing and implementing innovative, sustainable solutions. This research reveals the need for integrated strategies that combine educational and entrepreneurial efforts to ensure more efficient and responsible management and thus protect aquatic ecosystems while reducing pollution.

Assessment the Antecedent of Sustainable National Economy Growth (Green, Blue, Brown & Orange Economy) through Green Business Management Practices in Developing Countries: Evidences from Indonesia

Current research investigates the impact of green, blue, brown and orange economy on National Economy Growth. Putting forward the sustainability in the global context, these economies become crucial paradigm to leverage inclusive and sustainable economy development. GE focused on carbon emission reduction, increase resources efficiency, ecosystem protection, BE emphasized on the marine sustainable resources to push growth. Brown referred on traditional economy model that dependable on natural resources (unrenewable) and produced high greenhouse gas emissions, while OE is dealing with economy creative covered industries (art, culture, entertainment and innovation). Deploying quantitative method approach with secondary data from multi resources, such as government report, national data statistics and also Indonesia large scale enterprises. The analysis conducted to measure the contribution of related economy on national economy development through Green Business Management Practices as intervening variable. Research findings showed the economy categories had huge potency to increase national economy performance. The findings also highlighted the integration of four economies into national strategy development as pivotal step to maintain long term sustainability. Policy recommendation suggested to increase investment, environmental technology, human capacity development, strengthening cooperation within sectors and collaboration among countries and natural resource management.

Dual trust, emotional bond, and tourists’ on-site pro-environmental behavior at nature-based destinations: Extending norm-activation theory from the perspective of social dilemma

The sustainable development of tourism is closely tied to the protection and preservation of natural environments, particularly in nature-based destinations where the appeal and competitiveness depend heavily on the quality of environmental resources. Among the various strategies to enhance environmental sustainability, a strong emphasis has been placed on encouraging tourists to engage in spontaneous on-site pro-environmental behavior (PEB). However, tourists' participation in PEB at travel destinations often presents a scenario of social dilemma, where individual interests conflict with collective benefits. This conflict often makes individuals less willing to engage in PEB in the tourism context than they would in their everyday environments. To address this issue, the study advances the norm-activation theory (NAT), a well-established framework in PEB studies, by incorporating trust and emotion—two critical factors in resolving social dilemmas. An integrated model was proposed to better understand and predict the formation of tourists' on-site PEB and was empirically tested on a sample of 544 visitors from three natural parks in Hangzhou, China. The results reveal that (1) the two dimensions of trust—interpersonal trust and outcome trust—have significant effects on the key cognitive variables in NAT, namely ascription of responsibility and awareness of consequence, and (2) the emotional bond developed between tourists and the destination significantly enhances the link between ascription of responsibility and tourists' PEB intentions through the mediation of personal norm. These findings suggest that innovative interactive-based approaches can be implemented to more effectively promote tourists’ on-site PEB, thereby fostering sustainability in nature-based destinations.

Bottom-up discrete systematic modelling for analysis and prediction of future trends for land-sea environmental pollution systems

Addressing the challenge of marine environmental pollution requires accurate forecasting systems, yet current methods relying on artificial intelligence and big data face limitations due to insufficient and inconsistent marine data. This paper proposes an integrated bottom-up prediction system featuring a grey modeling module and an optimization module. The grey modeling module introduces a novel nonlinear nested systematic grey model, which employs multi-structure discretization to capture intricate and variable system changes by leveraging the dual nonlinearity of cumulative generated sequences and time trends. Nested solutions minimize prediction errors through discrete recursive equations with underlying-upper structures. The optimization module utilizes an efficient bio-inspired meta-heuristic algorithm, the Coati Optimization Algorithm, which balances global and local search strategies. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed model are enhanced by optimizing its nonlinear parameters through comparative analysis with other algorithms and conducting a sensitivity analysis on the number of iterations. The proposed prediction system is validated in representative Chinese provinces (Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hainan), demonstrating high prediction accuracy for both land-based and marine environmental pollution systems, with mean absolute percentage errors below 8% in both training and test sets. Projections indicate that by 2030, land-based source pollution intensities in these provinces will decrease by approximately 5.71%, 0.16%, and 1.64%, respectively, while marine pollution indices are expected to decline by 3.28%, 4.86%, and 2.89%. This study provides a valuable predictive tool for addressing the complexity, variability, and uncertainty of marine environmental pollution, while contributing to the promotion of land-sea integration and the protection of marine ecosystems.

Causalities and priorities for SDG targets in the human-earth system

The six Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—Food (2), Water (6), Energy (7), Economy (8), Climate (13), and Ecology (15)—collectively referred to as FWEECE, form the interdependent core of the human-earth system. Understanding their complex interactions is crucial for identifying transformative actions that maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs, thereby helping to rescue the 2030 Agenda. However, current research on SDG causal interactions in FWEECE remains limited. This study used structured expert elicitation to evaluate the causal interactions of 50 SDG targets in FWEECE. We applied network analysis, community detection, similarity analysis, systematic analysis, and prospective structural analysis to identify the higher-order influence, modularity, similarity, potential role, and structural function of each target within the network. Our results indicated that targets 8.4 (sustainable consumption and production) and 6.4 (increasing water-use efficiency) could be top prioritized in the global governance actions. Five targets related to food systems, water quality, climate resilience, and ecosystem protection (2.4, 13.1, 6.3, 15.1, and 15.5) were secondary priorities, while target 2.3 (increasing agricultural productivity) was considered as a high-risk. The trade-offs among food production, economic growth, and ecosystem conservation remained a major challenge for achieving FWEECE. This study provides new insights for future global priorities and is significant for promoting policy coherence and human-earth system coordination.