Causalities and priorities for SDG targets in the human-earth system

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The six Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—Food (2), Water (6), Energy (7), Economy (8), Climate (13), and Ecology (15)—collectively referred to as FWEECE, form the interdependent core of the human-earth system. Understanding their complex interactions is crucial for identifying transformative actions that maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs, thereby helping to rescue the 2030 Agenda. However, current research on SDG causal interactions in FWEECE remains limited. This study used structured expert elicitation to evaluate the causal interactions of 50 SDG targets in FWEECE. We applied network analysis, community detection, similarity analysis, systematic analysis, and prospective structural analysis to identify the higher-order influence, modularity, similarity, potential role, and structural function of each target within the network. Our results indicated that targets 8.4 (sustainable consumption and production) and 6.4 (increasing water-use efficiency) could be top prioritized in the global governance actions. Five targets related to food systems, water quality, climate resilience, and ecosystem protection (2.4, 13.1, 6.3, 15.1, and 15.5) were secondary priorities, while target 2.3 (increasing agricultural productivity) was considered as a high-risk. The trade-offs among food production, economic growth, and ecosystem conservation remained a major challenge for achieving FWEECE. This study provides new insights for future global priorities and is significant for promoting policy coherence and human-earth system coordination.