Network Of Protected Areas Research Articles

Contributions of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems to risk-based design and management of protected and conserved areas in Africa.

Protected and conserved areas (PCAs) are key ecosystem management tools for conserving biodiversity and sustaining ecosystem services and social cobenefits. As countries adopt a 30% target for protection of land and sea under the Global Biodiversity Framework of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, a critical question emerging is, which 30%? A risk-based answer to this question is that the 30% that returns the greatest reductions in risks of species extinction and ecosystem collapse should be protected. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List protocols provide practical methods for assessing these risks. All species, including humans, depend on the integrity of ecosystems for their well-being and survival. Africa is strategically important for ecosystem management due to convergence of high ecosystem diversity, intense pressures, and high levels of human dependency on nature. We reviewed the outcomes (e.g., applications of ecosystem red-list assessments to protected-area design, conservation planning, and management) of a symposium at the inaugural African Protected Areas Congress convened to discuss roles of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems in the design and management of PCAs. Recent progress was made in ecosystem assessment, with 920 ecosystem types assessed against the IUCN Red List criteria across 21 countries. Although these ecosystems spanned a diversity of environments across the continent, the greatest thematic gaps were for freshwater, marine, and subterranean realms, and large geographic gaps existed in North Africa and parts of West and East Africa. Assessment projects were implemented by a diverse community of government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and researchers. The assessments have influenced policy and management by informing extensions to and management of formal protected area networks supporting decision-making for sustainable development, and informing ecosystem conservation and threat abatement within boundaries of PCAs and in surrounding landscapes and seascapes. We recommend further integration of risk assessments in environmental policy and enhanced investment in ecosystem red-list assessment to fill current gaps.

Using passive acoustic data to understand sustainable vessel operations

Marine vessels support diverse ocean economic sectors. As society works towards a sustainable ocean economy, a variety of vessel initiatives are emerging. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) offers a method to evaluate these initiatives. Here we review efforts related to vessel noise management in marine protected areas (MPA) and benefits of vessel speed reduction programs (VSRs). Monitoring marine vessel activity and related underwater noise across a network of protected areas, like the U.S. National Marine Sanctuary system, helps managers ensure the quality of habitats used by a wide range of species. Network-wide comparisons of vessel noise revealed a spectrum of conditions, providing robust metrics to help prioritize management and inform condition assessments. These same vessel noise metrics provided insight on noise reduction related to changes in vessel operations during multiple VSRs. The metrics are complementary to other noise reduction metrics currently used to evaluate VSRs. With the growth in VSRs, there is a need to communicate noise reduction at scales relevant to the targeted vessels, typically larger than individual VSRs. Coordinated efforts are advancing to meet these needs. With strategic, systematic, and sustained efforts, PAM can continue to provide key insight on efforts to realize sustainable marine vessel operations.

Network of nearshore protected areas provides important benefits to lake whitefish in the Apostle Islands region of Lake Superior

Aquatic protected areas are commonly used for fish conservation, restoration, and management and a spectrum of protection levels exist in the Great Lakes. Using fishery-independent survey data over 43 years, we evaluated whether lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) population dynamics differed among nearshore partially protected areas (PPAs; commercial fishing prohibited or severely limited), offshore no-take refuges, and unprotected areas in the Apostle Islands region of Lake Superior. Lake whitefish biomass and recruitment to the spawning stock increased at faster rates in nearshore PPAs and offshore refuges than unprotected areas during the initial phase after protected areas were established (1980–2000). Recruitment and biomass stabilized in all management areas in the post-rebuild phase (2002–2022), and mortality was lower in the nearshore PPAs. Mean size of adults decreased within protected areas as abundance increased but not in unprotected areas, suggesting a density-dependent growth response and spillover to the fishing grounds, which was reflected in commercial catch rates. However, nearshore PPAs still harbored larger, faster-growing, and earlier-maturing lake whitefish, likely due to underlying habitat differences. Tag recaptures indicated greater minimum distances traveled near an offshore refuge compared to a nearshore PPA, suggesting habitat gradients may influence boundary porosity. PPAs provided protection and benefits for lake whitefish in areas of higher vulnerability where ceasing all fishing was not reasonable. Great Lakes managers should consider implementing networks of protected areas across multiple habitats as tools for conserving spawning biomass, maintaining diverse population demographics, and preserving portfolio effects to enhance recruitment and population stability.

Biodiversity losses associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in six countries

We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the climatically determined geographic ranges of plants and vertebrates in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India), accounting for uncertainties in regional climate projection. We quantify in a spatially explicit fashion the species richness remaining or lost, allowing the identification of climate refugia which we define as areas where > 75% of the species currently present remain in a world with a particular level of global warming above pre-industrial levels. In all countries and in both taxa, species richness declines with warming, as does the proportion of each country remaining a climate refugium for plants or vertebrates. In percentage terms, refugia loss relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period is greatest in India and Brazil, and least in Ghana and Ethiopia for the same level of warming, and is greater for plants than for vertebrates. Taking account of present land uses (i.e. area still considered natural), and using species richness of plants as a proxy to indicate biodiversity more generally, the proportion of land acting as climate refugia for biodiversity in five of the countries variously declines from 32–75% of a country in the 1961–1990 baseline period to 20–64% for 1.5 °C global warming, 11–53% for 2 °C, 3–33% for 3 °C and 2–24% for 4 °C warming. In Ethiopia, India, Brazil and China, climate refugia decline rapidly with warming while in Ghana and China some refugia persist even with 3–4 °C of warming. Only small percentages of Brazil, India and China are both climate refugia and lie within protected areas; hence, an expansion of the protected area networks in these countries would be required to deliver climate resilient biodiversity conservation. These percentages are larger in Ethiopia and Ghana and, in some areas of Ghana, the only remaining refugia are in protected areas, the remaining landscape converted to other uses.

Marine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming

Protection from direct human impacts can safeguard marine life, yet ocean warming crosses marine protected area boundaries. Here, we test whether protection offers resilience to marine heatwaves from local to network scales. We examine 71,269 timeseries of population abundances for 2269 reef fish species surveyed in 357 protected versus 747 open sites worldwide. We quantify the stability of reef fish abundance from populations to metacommunities, considering responses of species and functional diversity including thermal affinity of different trophic groups. Overall, protection mitigates adverse effects of marine heatwaves on fish abundance, community stability, asynchronous fluctuations and functional richness. We find that local stability is positively related to distance from centers of high human density only in protected areas. We provide evidence that networks of protected areas have persistent reef fish communities in warming oceans by maintaining large populations and promoting stability at different levels of biological organization.

Checklist of the marine malacofauna of Culuccia Peninsula (NW Sardinia, Italy), with notes on relevant species.

Culuccia is a small peninsula of about 3 km2 placed in north-western Sardinia (Italy) at the margin of the Maddalena Archipelago. The marine area surrounding this Peninsula is a Special Area of Conservation, included in the European Natura 2000 Ecological Network of protected areas, but until now, no information on biodiversity of this area is available. In 2021, a research project to study both terrestrial and marine biodiversity of Culuccia has started in order to fill this gap of knowledge. This work provides the first inventory of the marine malacofauna of the coast of Culuccia. Fifteen sites were sampled seasonally for one-year by using different sampling methods and the present study shows the results from approximately 50 scientific SCUBA and free dive surveys, carried out in all main marine habitats of the studied area. In total, 259 species of molluscs were recorded along the coasts of the Culuccia Peninsula (0-25 m depth), belonging to the classes Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Polyplacophora and Scaphopoda. Amongst the four classes recorded, gastropods were the most represented (66.90%; 173 species), followed by bivalves (28.10%; 73 species), polyplacophorans (4.60%; 12 species) and scapophods (0.40%; 1 species). Notes about distribution, conservation status and ecology for some valuable species are provided, together with images of representative species, consisting mainly of in situ photographs. Additionally, the present investigation recorded the presence of four alien species, whose Mediterranean distribution was extended to north-western Sardinia.

GPS Tracking Reveals the White-Tailed Eagle Haliaeetus albicilla as an Ambassador for the Natura 2000 Network

The Natura 2000 network of protected areas is the backbone of species conservation in the European Union. We investigated whether Austrian-hatched white-tailed eagles (Haliaeetus albicilla) make particular use of this multinational network during their natal dispersal, and what habitats were of importance to the eagles. We analyzed the utilization distribution of 907,466 GPS locations from 38 dispersing white-tailed eagles using a dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Model. Eagles ranged over a huge area of central-eastern Europe. Natura 2000 sites overlapped with 67% of the resulting 50% isopleth; i.e., a high probability of utilization of Natura 2000 areas by white-tailed eagles was found. White-tailed eagles used wetlands, waterbodies, and deciduous forests adjacent to wet habitats disproportionately often. Coniferous forests and settlements were avoided. Anthropogenically caused mortalities hardly occurred within Natura 2000 sites. Our study suggests that the Natura 2000 network is a crucial tool for conserving the white-tailed eagle. This top predator is an ambassador for the Natura 2000 idea during all life stages, and should continue to be a conservation priority of the network.

Characterization of carbon fluxes, stock and nutrients in the sacred forest groves and invasive vegetation stands within the human dominated landscapes of a tropical semi-arid region

In the semi-arid plains of Southern India, outside the protected area network, sacred groves forests and the barren lands invaded by Prosopis juliflora are reckoned to be the major greenery, but have homogenous and heterogeneous vegetation respectively. This study attempted to compare 50 Sacred Groves Stands (SGS) and 50 monodominant Prosopis juliflora Stands (PJS) for the functional diversity, evenness, floral diversity, carbon stock and dynamics, carbon-fixing traits, dendrochronology of trees, soil nutrient profiles, and soil erosion. Quadrat sample survey was adopted to record stand density, species richness, abundance, basal area and leaf area index; composite soil samples were collected at depths 0–30 cm for nutrient profiling (N, P, K, and OC). Photosynthesis rate (µmole co2 m2/sec), air temperature (°c), leaf intracellular co2 concentration (ppm), ambient photosynthetic active radiation (µmole m2/sec), transpiration rate (m. mole H2O m2/sec) were determined for the 51 tree species existed in SGS and PJS using Plant Photosynthesis system. Structural Equation Model (SEM) was applied to derive the carbon sequestering potential and photosynthetic efficiency of eight dominant tree species using vital input parameters, including eco-physiological, morphological, and biochemical characterization. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, in conjunction with ArcGIS Pro and ArcGIS 10.3, was adopted to map soil loss. Carbon source/sink determinations inferred through Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) assessments showed that mature SGS potentially acted as a carbon sink (0.06 ± 0.01 g C/m2/day), while matured PJS acted as a carbon source (−0.34 ± 0.12 g C/m2/day). Soil erosion rates were significantly greater (29.5 ± 13.4 ton/ha/year) in SGS compared to PJS (7.52 ± 2.55 ton/ha/year). Of the eight selected tree species, SEM revealed that trees belonging to the family Fabaceae [Wrightia tinctoria (estimated coefficient: 1.28, p = 0.02) > Prosopis juliflora (1.22, p = 0.01) > Acacia nilotica (1.21, p = 0.03) > Albizia lebbeck (0.97, p = 0.01)] showed comparatively high carbon sequestering ability.

On the rocks: Biogeography and floristic identity of rocky ecosystems in eastern South America

AbstractThe geodiversity of rocky ecosystems includes diverse plant communities with specific names, but their continental‐scale floristic identity and the knowledge on the role of macroclimate remain patchy. Here, we assessed the identity of plant communities in eastern Brazil across multiple types of rocky landscapes and evaluated the relative importance of climatic variables in constraining floristic differentiation. We provided lists of diagnostic species and an assessment of the conservation status of the identified floristic groups. We compiled a data set of 151 sites (4498 species) from rocky ecosystems, including campos rupestres, campos de altitude, granitic‐gneiss lowland inselbergs, and limestone outcrops. We used unsupervised clustering analysis followed by ANOSIM to assess floristic groups among sites. We performed a random forest variable selection to test whether the identified floristic groups occupy distinct climatic spaces. Six groups (lithobiomes) segregated floristically according to lithology and climate. Alongside campos de altitude and limestone outcrops, inselbergs were divided according to the biome in which they occur (Atlantic Forest or Caatinga), and campos rupestres were largely segregated according to their lithological matrix (ironstone or quartzitic). Plant communities of Caatinga inselbergs were more similar to limestone outcrops, while Atlantic Forest inselbergs communities resembled campos de altitude. The composition of plant communities on outcrops seems to be largely constrained by lithology, but climatic factors are also meaningful for sites with similar lithology. The current network of protected areas does not cover these unique ecosystems and their floristic heterogeneity, with Caatinga inselbergs and limestone outcrops being the least protected.

Assessment of the Potential to Promote Nature-based Tourism Industry in the Protected Area Network of Sri Lanka


 
 
 
 Promoting the tourism industry is one of the proven strategies for Sri Lanka to address current economic crises. Sri Lanka has a high potential to develop nature-based tourism with its high biodiversity. The Forest Department and the Department of Wildlife Conservation manage 30% of the country's land as Protected Areas. In comparison to the tourism income generated through archeological sites of the country, the biodiversity sector has earned 83%-90% from 2012 to 2016, without any significant promotions and it shows the potential to develop nature-based tourism. This study aimed to examine the potentiality of using the Protected Area network to promote nature- based tourism. The PESTEL approach was utilized to assess the potentiality, and primary data was gathered through ten structured Key Informant Interviews of senior officials of both the destination management agencies, tourism authorities, and experts. The secondary data were obtained by reviewing official reports and records. The Fauna and Flora Protection Ordinance, Forest Ordinance, and their amendments provide legal provisions relating to tourism in Protected Areas with certain limitations. The Wildlife Preservation Fund can be utilized for conservation and development activities in protected areas, including tourism promotion. Even if a higher degree of ̳tourism friendly‘ provisions is available with the Forest Department, there is no mechanism for utilizing the income generated through tourism activities for conservation as revenue credits to the Treasury. Insufficient financial allocation through the treasury, lack of innovative financial solutions for resource mobilization, and ineffective governance mechanisms for promoting public- private partnerships are identified as challenging factors in forest and biodiversity conservation in protected areas. This leads to environmental degradation and biodiversity loss in the country. The study found the potentiality of developing projects worth one billion LKR per annum with more than 20% internal rate of return, if the government develops a mechanism that increases the
 
 
 
 
 benefits/incentives available for the Forest Department from tourism, ensures cooperation and
 
 
 
 
 comprehensive planning among both the departments, introduce innovative sustainable financing solutions, amend the policy and institutional framework in favour of public, private community partnerships, and develop a tourism promotion roadmap for both the Departments. Such initiatives would increase the socioeconomic and environmental benefits to the communities living in the Functional Resource Unit of the Protected Areas. It could be strengthened with an innovative Protected Area management model such as the community forestry approach. The study recommends that tourism should be considered an effective entry point for sustainable use, biodiversity conservation, and economic growth at local and national levels.
 
 
 
 
 Keywords: Protected areas, Nature-based tourism, Innovative financing, Public-private partnerships, Tourism for conservation
 
 
 

Prioritizing conservation efforts based on future habitat availability and accessibility under climate change.

The potential for species to shift their ranges to avoid extinction is contingent on the future availability and accessibility of habitats with analogous climates. To develop conservation strategies, many previous researchers used a single method that considered individual factors; a few combined 2 factors. Primarily, these studies focused on identifying climate refugia or climatically connected and spatially fixed areas, ignoring the range shifting process of animals. We quantified future habitat availability (based on species occurrence, climate data, land cover, and elevation) and accessibility (based on climate velocity) under climate change (4 scenarios) of migratory birds across the Yangtze River basin (YRB). Then, we assessed species' range-shift potential and identified conservation priority areas for migratory birds in the 2050s with a network analysis. Our results suggested that medium (i.e., 5-10km/year) and high (i.e., ≥ 10km/year) climate velocity would threaten 18.65% and 8.37% of stable habitat, respectively. Even with low (i.e., 0-5km/year) climate velocity, 50.15% of climate-velocity-identified destinations were less available than their source habitats. Based on our integration of habitat availability and accessibility, we identified a few areas of critical importance for conservation, mainly in Sichuan and the middle to lower reaches of the YRB. Overall, we identified the differences between habitat availability and accessibility in capturing biological responses to climate change. More importantly, we accounted for the dynamic process of species' range shifts, which must be considered to identify conservation priority areas. Our method informs forecasting of climate-driven distribution shifts and conservation priorities.

Historical and current distribution ranges of the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus)

The current distribution of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is available on the IUCN Red List of Threatened species website; however, nothing is known about the historical extent and occurrence of this species. Therefore, we aimed to understand the historical distribution of the Asiatic black bear, and map and estimate its total size, to compare it with that of species current distribution. In addition, we analyzed a network of protected areas in the past and current ranges of the species. We employed geographic information system (GIS) software to reconstruct and measure the historical range of the Asiatic black bear, comparing past and current ranges to analyze its expected range contraction. The main focus of the study was to enhance our understanding of the species' historical distribution, contributing to better conservation strategies for the present and future perspectives. The utilization of GIS tools facilitates a comprehensive exploration of the factors influencing the species' decline, ultimately aiding in more effective management and conservation efforts. We used published records of black bear’s occurrence in anywhere in history to reconstruct its historical distribution range. Results revealed that the Asiatic black bear was more widely distributed in historical times and its range spanned across approximately 15.86 million km2 while its current range is limited to approximately 7.85 million km2, showing a range contraction of approximately 49.5% (8.02 million km2 reduced). The total protected areas in the historical range of the species were found to be N = 9933, with total size of 0.946 million km2, against N = 6580 (0.667 million km2) that are present in the current range. Approximately 27.5% of the protected areas have lost the Asiatic black bear since historical times.

Identifying umbrella and indicator species to support multispecies population connectivity in a Himalayan biodiversity hotspot

Successful conservation hinges on the reliable prediction and prioritisation of population core habitats and dispersal corridors. However, reliance on single-species connectivity has produced mixed results and, in most cases, failed to protect other species under the appealing but often unfulfilled guise of umbrella protection. The main objectives of this study were: (1) to identify core habitats and dispersal corridors for population connectivity of 15 terrestrial mammal species across Bhutan, (2) to identify indicator species of wildlife connectivity, (3) to prioritise core areas and dispersal corridors for the focal umbrella and indicator species, (4) to develop composite multispecies connectivity maps and evaluate the effectiveness of the existing protected area network. We used kernel density (KD) to identify core habitat areas and factorial least-cost path (LCP) to map dispersal corridors. We used correlation and cluster analyses to identify umbrella and indicator species, and quantitative ranking to prioritise core areas and corridors for these focal species. Finally, we produced maps of multispecies core areas and corridors, and identified gaps in the existing protected area network (PAN). We found that ungulates were generally more effective than carnivores in serving as umbrella species for core habitat protection, with Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) emerging as the most effective umbrella for core habitats and muntjac (Muntiacus muntjac) for dispersal corridors. We identified six focal connectivity indicator species in Bhutan: tiger (Panthera tigris), dhole (Cuon alpinus), clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa), Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), Asian elephant, and sambar deer (Rusa unicolor). Most indicator species’ core areas and dispersal corridors outside the PAN were in southern Bhutan, indicating opportunities for increased multispecies connectivity through expanding protected area network in this region. A total of 40% of multispecies core areas and 24% of dispersal corridors were under PAN, with large parts of Bhutan offering suitable core areas and corridors for multispecies conservation. Core areas and corridors of the 15 considered species only partially overlapped, stressing the importance of multi-species consideration in designating wildlife corridors.

Evaluating density-weighted connectivity of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Glacier National Park with spatial capture–recapture models

BackgroundImproved understanding of wildlife population connectivity among protected area networks can support effective planning for the persistence of wildlife populations in the face of land use and climate change. Common approaches to estimating connectivity often rely on small samples of individuals without considering the spatial structure of populations, leading to limited understanding of how individual movement links to demography and population connectivity. Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a framework to formally connect inference about individual movement, connectivity, and population density, but few studies have applied this approach to empirical data to support connectivity planning.MethodsWe used mark-recapture data collected from 924 genetic detections of 598 American black bears (Ursus americanus) in 2004 with SCR ecological distance models to simultaneously estimate density, landscape resistance to movement, and population connectivity in Glacier National Park northwest Montana, USA. We estimated density and movement parameters separately for males and females and used model estimates to calculate predicted density-weighted connectivity surfaces.ResultsModel results indicated that landscape structure influences black bear density and space use in Glacier. The mean density estimate was 16.08 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 12.52–20.6) for females and 9.27 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 7.70–11.14) for males. Density increased with forest cover for both sexes. For male black bears, density decreased at higher grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) densities. Drainages, valley bottoms, and riparian vegetation decreased estimates of landscape resistance to movement for male and female bears. For males, forest cover also decreased estimated resistance to movement, but a transportation corridor bisecting the study area strongly increased resistance to movement presenting a barrier to connectivity.ConclusionsDensity-weighed connectivity surfaces highlighted areas important for population connectivity that were distinct from areas with high potential connectivity. For black bears in Glacier and surrounding landscapes, consideration of both vegetation and valley topography could inform the placement of underpasses along the transportation corridor in areas characterized by both high population density and potential connectivity. Our study demonstrates that the SCR ecological distance model can provide biologically realistic, spatially explicit predictions to support movement connectivity planning across large landscapes.

Insects as indicators of Key Biodiversity Areas

Abstract Global change is affecting insect populations worldwide as species declines have been reported from different areas of the planet. Novel approaches such as the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) could detect areas of high biodiversity value for insect populations. The KBA approach relies on standardised criteria to identify important sites for biodiversity persistence. The application of such criteria to large numbers of species would significantly accelerate the KBA mapping process. A systematic application of KBA criteria has not been tested on insects, and very little is known about the efficiency and limits of such methodology. We applied four KBA criteria in Italy to 28 species/subspecies of bumblebees and identified potential KBAs for one species and three subspecies. Potential KBAs are only partially nested within current Italian KBAs and the protected areas network. When compared with potential KBAs of vertebrate species identified with the same methodology, the degree of nesting is only 12%. Our results provide evidence of a tendency of the KBA network to expand as more species are assessed, raising questions about the ability of the criteria to detect areas that truly are key for biodiversity and not just for specific taxa. We also highlight issues regarding the use of KBA criteria on insects, such as data availability and the use of subspecies. Further large‐scale assessments of KBAs will reveal the true potential of application of the KBA approach for insect conservation, and whether it actually may slow down the loss of important units of their extraordinary diversity.

Decrease of deforestation in Protected Areas of Madagascar during the Covid-19 years

Deforestation poses a significant threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study focuses on estimating the deforestation within Protected Areas (PAs) in Madagascar over a 21- year period from 2001 to 2022. A novel methodology utilizing remote sensing data and specific thresholds of tree canopy density is employed to estimate annual deforestation rates and identify trends and patterns within PAs. The analysis reveals significant deforestation in the PA network over the last decade, particularly in 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019. Notably, the lowest annual deforestation rates were estimated during the Covid-19 years of 2020 (0.66%), 2021 (0.62%), and the subsequent year in 2022 (0.67%) when considering the entire network of 103 PAs with natural forests from 2013 to 2022.

Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040–2060) and late (2061–2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.

Susceptibility of dwarf chameleons to climate and land use change: a vulnerability framework for conservation planning

Climate and land use changes are eroding biodiversity globally, and reptiles are highlighted as being particularly susceptible. In South Africa, global changes threaten the persistence of an assemblage of dwarf chameleons (Bradypodion) located in a biodiversity hotspot. We used ecological niche modelling to assess the combined effect of climate change and habitat transformation on these species and assessed their susceptibility in a vulnerability framework under optimistic and pessimistic change scenarios. Although our models showed a gain in suitable climatic space for all coastal species in some scenarios, considerable losses were predicted for most species under the most pessimistic change scenarios. Bradypodion ngomeense, for example is predicted to incur a complete loss of climatic suitability by 2050. The vulnerability framework predicts inland species to be more adversely affected by climate change than coastal species. However, no species show resilience to the combined effects of climate change and habitat transformation. Our models predicted a loss of climatically suitable habitat for most species in protected areas. These findings highlight the importance of a protected area network design to remain a step ahead of these anticipated changes.

Investigating the planning efficiency of species richness- and complementarity-based algorithms in data deficient areas

Efficient conservation planning is a necessary approach for protecting endangered species with deficient distribution data and reducing biodiversity loss. Richness- and complementarity-based algorithms can improve conservation planning efficiency to different degrees, but differences in planning efficiency caused by data availability and algorithms are often disregarded and require clarification. Here, we classified endangered, endemic, and national key protected plant species based on their occurrence data availability for species distribution modeling. We implemented species richness- (SRA), species number complementarity- (SNCA) and species value complementarity-based algorithms (SVCA) to identify priority conservation areas (PCAs) in the Southeast Himalaya Biodiversity Priority Conservation Area. We established six scenarios and compared their planning efficiencies. The spatial distribution of PCAs and their conservation efficiency varied depending on data availability and optimization algorithms. The 17%, 30%, and 45% PCAs identified in the six scenarios differed in geographical pattern, whereas differences in species occurrences had less effect on their conservation efficiency. Specifically, the PCAs identified by using species with sufficient data as surrogates captured species with high conservation value. Additionally, SNCA was better suited for capturing species number, and SVCA was more cost-effective for protecting species area and species of high conservation value, but SRA distribution pattern presented less fragmented and well-connected. Nevertheless, 50.11% area of the optimized PCAs remained uncovered by existing protected areas. Our analysis reveals the influence of species occurrence data availability, and algorithms on planning efficiency, and provides a cost-effective solution for improving planning efficiency and optimizing protected area network in data deficient areas.

Global conservation priorities for wetlands and setting post-2025 targets

Wetland conservation is becoming increasingly important as wetland areas decline globally. However, no comprehensive global-scale mapping of wetland conservation priorities and targets has been published. This information is needed to extend the current protected area network and improve the conservation efficiency for wetlands. Here, we propose a cost-effective assessment model for wetland conservation by integrating wetland conservation value- and human impact-related indicators to identify global wetland conservation priorities. These priorities cover 28% of the potential global wetland distribution, and of that, only 44% is currently protected by existing protected areas. To protect more wetland conservation priorities, we propose three target-setting scenarios for protected area expansion that offer additional contributions of 9.40%, 42.40%, and 55.97%, respectively. These three global targets can be downscaled to the national level and used to update national wetland biodiversity conservation strategies and action plans under a harmonized legal and regulatory regime at different scales and jurisdictions.