Prospective Scenarios Research Articles

Vacant lands on French Mediterranean coastlines: Inventory, agricultural opportunities, and prospective scenarios

Mediterranean coastlines are undergoing a strong process of urbanization due not only to demographic growth, but also to the development of tourism. Moreover, municipalities have become more dependent on residential tax income, which creates a vicious circle for local urban planning. The Var department, in south-eastern France, can be considered as a relevaznt example of these dynamics, where residential urban sprawl is threatening existing vacant lands. At the same time, most of these territories still have a high natural value and agricultural potential. In this paper, we describe our inventory of vacant lands on a large territory (two intermunicipalities, which include 24 municipalities) at parcel scale, to give an innovative assessment of this phenomenon. We investigated non-residential development possibilities for existing vacant lands through possible pathways for sustainable planning projects. In particular, the impacts of increases in agricultural spaces were explored in the normative scenarios and were measured through socio-economic indexes. This work shows that there is still a large amount of vacant land (23.5% and 37% respectively for the two case studies) with different opportunities for agricultural valorization. It had to be taken into account that these lands are often on the fringe of urban areas, where the urbanization process is stronger. The possible alternative scenarios suggested here can be used as examples for policy makers, to encourage a different point of view regarding land use planning.

Participatory design of agronomic scenarios for the reintroduction of legumes into a French territory

Legume crops have a number of advantages for dealing with current environmental and food challenges. However, the area under grain and forage legumes has greatly decreased in recent decades in Europe. Attempts to foster the development of legumes will require the sharing and coordination of the visions, objectives, strategies and actions of different stakeholders at territorial level. Participatory approaches can facilitate this by involving stakeholders in the design of prospective territorial scenarios, rendering them more realistic by integrating local pedoclimatic and socioeconomic contexts and the possibilities for stakeholder action. We followed a participatory approach for designing and assessing prospective scenarios at territorial scale, addressing local agricultural issues through crop diversification with legumes. The participating stakeholders came from various organizations in the domains of agriculture (agronomists and supply chain stakeholders), the environment, and research. A description and multicriteria characterization of current and prospective crop management plans was first obtained from national statistical data, face-to-face surveys and participatory workshops. The results of this first step were then used for simulation of the current territory (distribution of crops and crop management plans within the territory), with the validation of this simulation by local stakeholders during a participatory workshop. This simulation was used as the baseline for the design and assessment of prospective scenarios. In a third step, stakeholders proposed and discussed various objectives for their territory during a participatory workshop. Four scenarios were then simulated with a linear-programming tool, optimizing the distribution of crop management plans to respect constraints based on the objectives proposed by stakeholders. Depending on the scenarios, the area under legume ranged from 8.8 to 22.8%, compared to 5.9% for the current territory. Finally, agronomic (yields), socioeconomic (e.g. semi-net margin, working load) and environmental performance (e.g. Nitrate leaching, TFI) were assessed, and the results and conditions for the implementation of scenarios were discussed with stakeholders at another participatory workshop. Stakeholders had to express their views on the values and limitations of the scenarios. The stakeholders considered this participatory approach to be successful, and the scenarios proved to be a good basis for discussions about the future of agriculture within the territory and about new levers for reintroducing legumes. Following this study, part of the involved stakeholders initiated local projects in the territory.

MRV framework and prospective scenarios to monitor and ratchet up Brazilian transport mitigation targets

Transitioning from a carbon-intensive development path to a low-carbon economy requires understanding of emission sources and its drivers. To achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must project emission baselines considering different levels of ambition and sectoral performances and monitor government policies and mitigation actions. This study develops a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) framework based on energy use and carbon emission scenarios for Brazil up to 2030, focusing on transport. Three scenarios are developed based on different political commitments. All scenarios and mitigation actions are discussed under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, which is recognized as one of the most important institutional instruments of the National Policy on Climate Change. Results reveal a 41% abatement in CO2e emissions when comparing the most ambitious scenario to the conservative one. MRV framework indicates that Brazil is on track to a low carbon economic transition, although joint action is needed. This is mainly due to the increasing penetration of bioenergy into the transport energy matrix, while electromobility does not expand in Brazil at the pace of major international players such as Europe and China. Special contribution of this paper is on the role of bioenergy in prospective carbon emission scenarios, which is a lack in the literature.

System model of integrated management of the water resources of the Ingulets River by a basin principal

For integrated water management in river basins in Ukraine, there is no toolkit for system modeling and selection of management structure in river basins according to environmental and economic criteria, which corresponds to the creation of water management systems under conditions of sustainable development. Therefore, the urgent task is to develop a system model of integrated water management on the example of the Ingulets River basin.
 The purpose of the work is to create a system model of integrated water resources management in Ingulets River basin, which provides scenario modeling of technological solutions, their evaluation and optimization of economic criteria for efficient water use under environmental constraints and criteria for achieving a good or excellent ecological status of the river basin.
 The system model is used as a toolkit, the method of decomposition of the river basin into subsystems, analysis of subsystems and their composition into a holistic model of integrated management by the basin principle. Telecommunication methods are proposed to improve monitoring. A method of scenario analysis is proposed, which performs simulation modeling of prospective management scenarios at the first level of the hierarchy, and at the second level - options are evaluated according to the criteria of cost-effective water use with environmental objectives and regulatory restrictions. For simulation modeling, a system of balance difference equations for the dynamics of water masses, mixing and spreading of pollution in rivers and reservoirs is formalized. A system of combined control for the impulse method of river washing was developed. Multicriteria optimization of variants of the control structure is carried out on the Pareto principle.
 A system model has been developed for integrated water resources management in the Ingulets River basin that meets the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive on the establishment of cost-effective water use while ensuring good or excellent ecological status of rivers. The structural and functional diagram of the system model includes the subsystems: the water supply subsystem of the Dnipro-Ingulets canal; a subsystem for flushing the Ingulets River from the Karachunivske reservoir and displacing the saline prism into the Dnipro River; subsystem of environmental safety when discharging pollution into the river Ingulets; subsystem of water supply for irrigation in the Ingulets irrigation system, prevention of soil salinization. A system of technological, economic and environmental criteria for evaluating integrated management by the basin principle has been developed. 
 They include maintaining the water level in reservoirs, displacement of salt water prism and limitation on water quality, ensuring the ecological condition of the river, and the dynamics of water resources consumption. Technological criteria determine the maintenance of water levels in reservoirs. Cost-effective water use is estimated on the basis of the dynamics of water consumption for river washing and irrigation.
 The formalized integrated management system in the Ingulets River basin includes operational water resources management and structure management. Integrated management is carried out according to subsystems, types of management and a system of criteria. For operational management the balance differential equations of water exchange in reservoirs are formalized. A two-layer model of water masses dynamics, pollutants distribution and mixing when flushing rivers from reservoirs is used. 
 Scenario analysis is offered to select the optimal structure of the management system. Simulation scenarios are being simulated. Scenario optimization is performed on the Pareto principle.
 An example of evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed system and its comparison with the existing regulations for Ingulets River flushing is given.

Portfolio Choice with Path-Dependent Preferences

Many sophisticated investors rely on scenario analysis to select a portfolio. These investors define prospective economic scenarios, assign probabilities to them, translate the scenarios into expected asset class returns, and select the portfolio with the highest expected return or expected utility, given all these inputs. With this approach, the investor only considers single period outcomes. The authors propose a new approach to scenario analysis that enables investors to consider sequential outcomes. They define prospective scenarios, not as average values of economic variables, but as paths for these variables. And they measure the likelihood that these paths will prevail in the future based on their statistical similarity to the historical sequences of these variables. The authors also employ a novel forecasting technique called partial sample regression to map economic outcomes onto asset class returns. This process allows investors to evaluate portfolios based on the likelihood they will produce a certain pattern of returns over a specified investment horizon.

Uruguayan native grasslands net aerial primary production model and its application on safe stocking rate concept

Native pastures in Uruguay grasslands are the main resource for livestock extensive farming. Remote sensing data of Net Aerial Primary Production is a useful tool to enhance knowledge about grasslands dynamics and behaviour. The pasture productivity on grasslands is highly affected by climate and droughts episodes impacts directly on secondary productivity of livestock systems. Using remote sensing data, a harmonic sinusoidal model affected by a "climate coefficient" is proposed to generate prospective scenarios and to study an implementation of the Safe stocking rate concept. This information can be use in extension activity to help farmers to adapt their systems to native grass dynamics on the adaptive management paradigm.

A template for generic asssessment of tumor response: "myRECIST".

e14149 Background: Oncologists often need an objective, quantitative assessment of a patient's response to therapy. Lacking a standardized format, the oncologist may request a RECIST (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors) analysis. RECIST, however, was developed to provide standardized assessment in the context of randomized clinical trials. RECIST is based on the prospective analysis of a limited sample of tumor lesions or lymph nodes, whereas the clinician naturally makes clinical decisions retrospectively. Furthermore, RECIST has definitions, rules, and criteria for classifying responses that may not apply in the clinical setting, and it does not include consistent rules for merging or splitting lymph nodes, mixed tumor responses, lesions that may cavitate, and a wide range of individualistic responses encountered in clinical practice. Methods: To address these issues, we have modified our working Excel-based template for RECIST 1.1 assessment to include a "myRECIST" feature, so that the radiologist can enter data and examine a range of pre-defined or customizable scenarios, including RECIST1.1, iRECIST, Lugano, volumetric and other parametric protocols. With a few interactions, this template can produce exportable tables and graphs of tumor responses that can guide therapy, as shown in the attached image. Definitions are standardized and linked to RADLEX ontology for specificity and subsequent analysis. Results: This template has been developed for clinical use and is available for downloading from our institutional web-site. Conclusions: We have developed, for public use, a free, easy-to-use, down-loadable Excel template for evaluating prospective or retrospective scenarios of tumor response to therapy that avoids the restrictions of the RECIST methodology. This template may prove useful to oncologists both in and out of the context of randomized clinical trials. We call this "myRECIST."

Beyond endemism, expanding conservation efforts: What can new distribution records reveal?

Geographical range is one of the critical features for species conservation assessment. Nevertheless, species distribution is frequently unknown, undervalued or overlooked. During a broad taxonomic and floristic study of the southern South American prickly pear species (Opuntia spp.), new records of a species previously considered endemic to Argentina have been found in Uruguay and Brazil. Molecular phylogenetic inference was carried out to further evaluate the identity of the new records, and ecological niche models were implemented to test how the new records would fit in the previous known distribution of the species. Through molecular and morphological evidence, we confirmed the new records of Opuntia bonaerensis for Brazilian and Uruguayan floras and discussed its phylogenetic relationship and morphological similarities with closely related species. Our new records uncovered a distribution pattern congruent with the Neotropical Peripampasic Orogenic Arc, which must be further explored to better determine the biogeographic history of the species. Ecological niche models (ENM) revealed that O. bonaerensis likely had a putative ancient distribution across the grasslands and shrublands in the Pampean region largely congruent with the populations found in Brazil and Uruguay, suggesting relictual Pleistocene populations of the species and the role of glacial/interglacial cycles on the distribution of the species. In a prospective climate change scenario, ENM suggests that the species would in general be more restricted to the southernmost limits of the Pampa region and previous outlying records from Mendoza (Argentina) are a putative future refuge for O. bonaerensis. The importance of these new records for biodiversity and conservation assessment efforts that are ongoing at different scales in Brazil and neighboring areas is highlighted.

Estratégias e processos participativos para o desenvolvimento local e regional na Baixada de Sepetiba, RJ

Resumo Este artigo apresenta a aplicação de ferramenta de cartografia social, a partir do olhar plural e participativo, para identificação e análise de fragilidades e potencialidades de território periférico na Baixada de Sepetiba, RJ, investigado a partir das transformações ocasionadas pelo crescimento econômico e pelos projetos de investimentos globais. Com base em conceitos de zonas opacas e luminosas, metropolização e desenvolvimento sustentável, a metodologia multitemática e transescalar analisa aspectos socioespaciais, integrando atores sociais e institucionais em uma reflexão conjunta e interativa e na produção de cenários prospectivos de desenvolvimento local. Valida-se a estratégia metodológica participativa para elaboração de diretrizes de planejamento do território ameaçado pela expansão metropolitana.

NONTHERMAL PLASMA: A REVIEW ON ITS PROSPECTS ON FOOD PROCESSING

Bringing plasma into food processing is a relatively new measure for food engineer and scientist. It is simple in generation, low energy requirement, high efficacy, and easy to apply, pave its way to be a new prospective scenario in processing more safety food recently. Plasma is the fourth matter after solid, liquid and gas contain various reactive species generated by electrical discharge from 10-120kV. Those are Reactive Oxygen and Nitrogen (RONS) comprising various reactive species including nitric oxide (NO), superoxide (O2-), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2); singlet oxygen (1O2); ozone (O3) and even hydroxyl radical (-OH) which can and do play important roles in biological systems. This brief review describes plasma interaction with the biological system and pesticides compound and sums up some finding on the nonthermal application on two main consideration of food safety namely microorganisms decontamination and pesticides residue degradation.

U.S. Policy Toward the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict under the Trump Administration: Continuity or Change?

The 2017 inauguration of Donald Trump as the U.S. president opened a new chapter in U.S. policy making toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Several developments that have taken place under the Trump Administration mark a clear rupture from the Oslo Accords in favor of support for Israeli plans to annex a large fraction of the West Bank and design a new settlement of the conflict according to its interests. While the U.S. policy toward the Palestinian issue is not radically different under Trump, he does break from former presidents in that he overtly indicates a sharp pro-Israel tilt and has been more transparent about the U.S. position in the conflict. In this context, in light of the developments that have taken place in the last three years, this article aims to investigate the main pillars of the U.S. foreign policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and to analyze how far the Trump Administration’s policies toward the conflict indicate a shift from those of his predecessors. It also offers some insights into the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by providing three prospective scenarios and discussing their repercussions.

The SPARS Pandemic 2025-2028: A Futuristic Scenario to Facilitate Medical Countermeasure Communication

Effective communication about medical countermeasures—including drugs, devices and biologics—is often critical in emergency situations. Such communication, however, does not just happen. It must be planned and prepared for. One mechanism to develop communication strategies is through the use of prospective scenarios, which allow readers the opportunity to rehearse responses while also weighing the implications of their actions. This article describes the development of such a scenario: The SPARS Pandemic 2025-2028. Steps in this process included deciding on a timeframe, identifying likely critical uncertainties, and then using this framework to construct a storyline covering both the response and recovery phases of a fictional emergency event. Lessons learned from the scenario development and how the scenario can be used to improve communication are also discussed.

Road to zero or road to nowhere? Disrupting transport and energy in a zero carbon world

The phasing out of conventional fossil fuel road vehicles is one of a number of potentially disruptive transport and energy policies. The implied technical substitution alone may be too slow to contribute meaningfully to meeting ‘net zero’ carbon reduction targets. This paper uses established modelling techniques and prospective scenario analyses in a UK case study to investigate what the impacts might be if we were more ambitious, how much disruption is needed to meet climate goals, the role of lifestyle and social change, and the potential implications for key actors in transport energy systems. Existing policies may neither hit carbon reduction targets nor make the early gains needed for a Paris-compliant trajectory. Deeper and earlier reductions in carbon and air quality emissions can be achieved by more ambitious but largely non-disruptive change of a 2030 phase out that includes (plug-in) hybrids. The earlier phase outs combined with lower demand for mobility and car ownership would make significant contributions to an emissions pathway that is both Paris compliant and meets urban air quality goals. Some disruption for technology providers, business and government can be expected in the more ambitious cases. The paper concludes by discussing key policy implications and recommendations.

Influence of climate change externalities on the sustainability-oriented prioritisation of prospective energy scenarios

The implementation of externalities in energy policies is a potential measure for sustainability-oriented energy planning. Furthermore, decisions on energy policies and plans should be based on the analysis of a number of potential energy scenarios, considering the evolution of key techno-economic and life-cycle sustainability indicators. The joint interpretation of these multiple criteria should drive the choice of appropriate decisions for energy planning. Within this context, this work proposes –for the first time– the combined use of Life Cycle Assessment, externalities calculation, Energy Systems Modelling and dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis to prioritise prospective energy scenarios. For demonstration and illustrative purposes, the application of this methodological framework to the case study of electricity production in Spain leads to quantitatively discriminate between 15 prospective energy scenarios by taking into account the life-cycle profile of the transformation path of the power generation system with time horizon 2050. When compared to the application of the framework without implementation of external costs, the internalisation of climate change externalities is found to affect the ranking of energy scenarios but still showing the rejection of those scenarios based on the lifetime extension of coal power plants, as well as the preference for those scenarios leading to a high penetration of renewable technologies.

Enhanced Scenario Analysis

Investors have long relied on scenario analysis as an alternative to mean–variance analysis to help them construct portfolios. Even though mean–variance analysis accounts for all potential scenarios, many investors find it difficult to implement because it requires them to specify statistical features of asset classes that are often unintuitive and difficult to estimate. Scenario analysis, by contrast, requires only that investors specify a small set of potential outcomes as projections of economic variables and assign probabilities to their occurrence. It is, therefore, more intuitive than mean–variance analysis, but it is highly subjective. In this article, the authors propose to replace the subjective elements of scenario analysis with a robust statistical process. They use a multivariate measure of statistical distance to estimate probabilities of prospective scenarios. Next, they construct portfolios that maximize utility for investors with different risk preferences. Last, the authors introduce a procedure for minimally modifying scenarios to render them consistent with prespecified views about their probabilities of occurrence. <b>TOPICS:</b>Portfolio theory, portfolio construction <b>Key Findings</b> • The authors use a multivariate measure of statistical distance to estimate probabilities of prospective scenarios. • They construct portfolios that maximize utility for investors with different risk preferences. • The authors introduce a procedure for minimally modifying scenarios to render them consistent with one’s prespecified views about their probabilities of occurrence.

Exploring Network Analysis for Urban Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Informal Settlements

The work explores the use of street network analysis on informal settlements and discusses the potential and limitations of this methodology to advance disaster risk reduction and urban resilience. The urban network analysis tool is used to conduct graph analysis measures on street networks in three informal settlements in the LAC region: Portmore, Jamaica; Tegucigalpa, Honduras; and Lima, Peru. Authors incorporate risk variables identified by these communities and combine them with prospective scenarios in which street networks are strategically intervened to improve performance. Authors also compute one graph index named Reach centrality. Results are presented spatially through thematic maps, and statistically by plotting cumulative distributions. Findings show that centrality measures of settlements' networks helped identify key nodes or roads that may be critical for people's daily life after disasters, and strategic to improve accessibility. The proposed methodology shows potential to inform decisions on urban planning and disaster risk reduction.

Students’ Views on the Covid-19 pandemic: Attitudes, Representations, and Coping Mechanisms

The new developments in our social context, the recent pandemic outbreak, caused a series of changes in everyday practices. The student population represents a particular case, both their safety and future education were under duress during this period. However, their views over the situation have not been present in the scientific literature. The present qualitative research aimed to explore students' perceptions, attitudes, views, and representations on the Covid-19 pandemic. Three focus groups, each containing twelve participants, were organised to explore these aspects and students’ particular experiences. Focus group sessions were audio-recorded and the transcripts were analysed. The results revealed four dimensions of the students' representations: change – as a constant of the present, prospective scenarios, the pulse of the moment, and surrounding risks. The limitations and the importance of the study are discussed. The consequences of these representations are particularly important due to the influence they can have on people’s practices during the crisis and the extent of measures’ acceptance. The results offer precious insights on why some communication strategies used by the authorities had a low compliance rate, what should be done differently, and what should be considered in order to promote adaptive health behaviors during the latter phases of the pandemic.

The potential impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on international defense and security

The world is struggling with the widely spread effects of the virus Covid-19. The damage until now took more than a million people in less than a year, which is more than a considerably number of small wars together. The purpose of this article is to identify signs, uncertainties and trends from future studies that have been written in the last few months by government agencies, large private companies, academic institutions and worldwide organizations about the influence of the pandemic in areas such as economy, international relations, geopolitics, environment, technology and society in order to assess those of main potential impacts for national defense and international security. The methodology relied on semantic analysis application based on 55 selected futures studies (reports, papers, books etc.) written in three largely spoken languages regarding both Covid-19 and prospective scenarios. The analysis focus on the complex tangle between technology and society, as well as, between politics and economy. The results are summarized in a list of variables of trend or uncertainties followed by some possible impacts on how they can interact or affect the issue. This paper points out the necessity to look over this pandemic horizon with contributions from different government departments, think tanks, academics and non- governmental organizations to short the time-lapse between the strategic formulation and its results.

Escenarios 2020 del Orden Mundial. Análisis desde la Prospectiva Estratégica

Objetivo: el objetivo de este artículo es mostrar evidencia de la prospectiva de los escenarios del orden mundial al año 2020. Metodología: se definió un estudio cualitativo de tipo analítico, no experimental, transeccional y de campo. Se diseñó un instrumento y se aplicó a una muestra de seis expertos en Relaciones Internacionales. Dicho cuestionario presenta cinco ítems para cada variable analizada. Resultados: se logró la clasificación de las variables multipolaridad, liderazgo Asia Pacífico, unipolaridad, amenaza a la seguridad mundial y neoproteccionismos; estas fueron catalogadas según la metodología de Swartch en cinco escenarios del orden global a 2020. Conclusiones: se concluye que la misma magnitud y velocidad de cambio resultantes de la globalización permitirán en la arena global el surgimiento de nuevos poderes, nuevos desafíos de gobernabilidad y una sensación más generalizada de inseguridad, que incluye el terrorismo.

Методи реформування глобальної валютно-регуляторної системи: інноваційні сценарії

The article is aimed at formulating the most possible prospective scenarios for reforming the global currency and regulatory system. The first scenario is a supra-nationally oriented currency system, which provides for the introduction of non-cash supranational monetary units in the status of the main international reserve means – instead of the U.S. dollar, with a purpose to counteract its chronic depredation. The second scenario of reforming the global currency and regulatory system is its orientation toward the official remonetization of gold, which provides for the restoration of the gold’s monetary status (in a certain modified form) as a universal and natural value benchmark, as well as its transformation into a first-class asset such as cash or government bonds. The third scenario of reforming the global currency and regulatory system is connected with the development of a multipolar currency system. Its material core is the consolidation of national monetary systems in terms of the formation of international currency unions and collective currencies. And finally, the fourth scenario of reforming the global currency and regulatory system is the digitalized currency system. It provides a mandatory component of the introduction of digital currencies – the cryptocurrencies characterized by presence of the computer nodes controlled by blockchain and evenly distributed at the inter-country level. These elements will be used in those elements of currency systems, where it will be possible to achieve savings in the transaction costs of economic agents for settlement transactions and ensure high reliability of the carried out transactions.