Prospective Population-based Study Research Articles

The association between preserved-ratio impaired spirometry and depression: results from a prospective population-based study.

The relationship between preserved-ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and depression remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the bidirectional relationship between PRISm and depression using data from a national cohort. Data from Wave 2 (2004-2005) to Wave 4 (2008-2009) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) were analyzed. Lung function and depressive symptoms were measured at baseline and follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of PRISm with depression (Study 1) and depression with PRISm (Study 2). Studies 1 and 2 included 2,934 and 2,277 participants, respectively. The follow-up period extended from Wave 2 to Wave 4. In univariate analyses, a bidirectional association between PRISm and depression was observed, with unadjusted HRs of 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.99; P=0.007) in Study 1 and 1.69 (95% CI, 1.13-2.52; P=0.010) in Study 2. However, in multivariable Cox models, baseline PRISm was not associated with subsequent depression development (adjusted HR 1.26; 95% CI, 0.94-1.69; P=0.128). Conversely, participants with depression had a significantly higher risk of developing PRISm compared to those without depression (adjusted HR 1.54; 95% CI, 1.03-2.32; P=0.038). These findings were consistent with z-score-based interpretive strategies, with an adjusted HR of 1.30 (95% CI, 0.95-1.77; P=0.105) in Study 1 and 1.59 (95% CI, 1.03-2.47; P=0.038) in Study 2. Depression was associated with an increased risk of developing PRISm, whereas PRISm did not increase the risk of developing depression. Physicians should be vigilant for potential PRISm development in patients with depression.

Transmission of Tuberculosis in Rural Henan, China: A Prospective Population-based Genomic Spatial Epidemiological Study

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) has declined more slowly in rural than urban areas in China, and data on the patterns of transmission and the high-risk populations in rural areas remains scarce. We conducted a population-based study of culture-positive pulmonary TB patients diagnosed in rural Linzhou City, Henan Province, from July 2018 to February 2023. Genomic clusters were defined based on whole-genome sequencing and risk factors for clustering were identified by logistic regression. Transmission events were inferred with phybreak and transmission links were sought through epidemiological investigation of clustered patients. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between genomic differences of patient isolates and geographical distances of patient residences. Spatial hotspots were defined using kernel density estimation. Of 455 culture-positive patients, 430 were included in the final analysis. Overall, 192 (44.7%,192/430) patients were grouped into 49 clusters. Clusters containing ≥5 patients accounted for 18.4% (9/49) of the clusters and clustering was highest in student patients. No super-spreaders were detected. Confirmed epidemiologic links were identified for only 18.2% of clustered patients. The clustering risk decreased rapidly with increasing distances between patient residences, but 77.6% of clustered patient pairs lived ≥5.0 km apart. Both the Central Subdistrict and Rencun Township were identified as hotspots for TB transmission. Recent transmission appears to be an important driver of the TB burden in Linzhou. The formulation of effective strategies to reduce TB incidence in rural areas will require further studies to identify high-risk populations and venues where local inhabitants congregate and transmit the infection.

Comorbidity and sex differences in functional disorders and internalizing disorders

ObjectiveIn the current exploratory study we estimate comorbidity rates between FDs [fibromyalgia (FM), myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS), and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS)]—and IDs—[major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD)] by using self-reported diagnostic criteria. MethodWe analyzed data from 107,849 participants (mean age = 49.3 (SD = 13.0), 58.6% women) of the Lifelines Cohort Study. Lifelines is a prospective population-based cohort study in the northeast of the Netherlands. Current IDs were assessed using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Current FM, ME/CFS, and IBS were assessed according to the 2010 American College of Rheumatology criteria, the 1994 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria and the ROME IV criteria, respectively. We estimated tetrachoric correlations between diagnoses and tested for sex differences. Additionally, we estimated the ratio of observed-to-expected frequency for combinations of diagnoses. ResultsFDs and IDs are highly comorbid (odds ratios: 3.2–12.6) with associations stronger among men. Participants with at least three disorders/diagnoses were more prevalent than expected by chance. ConclusionStudies that aim to explain sex differences and the comorbidity of specific combinations of IDs and FDs will be an important contribution to understanding the etiology of these conditions.

Environmental exposures and Long-COVID in a Prospective Population-Based Study in Catalonia (COVICAT study)

Environmental exposures and Long-COVID in a Prospective Population-Based Study in Catalonia (COVICAT study)

The Association between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Lichen Sclerosus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background/Objective: Lichen sclerosus is a chronic inflammatory skin disease that affects people of all ages and sexes. Evidence of cardiovascular risk factors in lichen sclerosus has been continuously reported; however, the definitive association remains inconclusive. This meta-analysis aimed to summarize the association between cardiovascular risk factors and lichen sclerosus. Methods: Electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, were systematically searched from inception to May 2024 to identify the literature reporting the association between cardiovascular risk factors and lichen sclerosus. A random-effects model was used for the meta-analysis. Results: We included 16 eligible studies: nine case-control studies, six retrospective cohort studies, and one cross-sectional study. A total of 432,457 participants were included. Lichen sclerosus was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus with an odds ratio of 2.07 (95% CI: 1.21-3.52). Although not statistically significant, a trend of increasing risk in hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity, and metabolic syndrome was observed among lichen sclerosus patients, with odds ratios of 1.56 (95% CI: 0.90-2.70), 1.44 (95% CI: 0.94-2.23), 5.84 (95% CI: 0.37-92.27), and 1.36 (95% CI: 0.52-3.54), respectively. Conclusions: Lichen sclerosus was associated with diabetes mellitus and potentially correlated with hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity, and metabolic syndrome. Population-based prospective observational studies are required to further elucidate these findings and assess the impact of these associations.

The clinical utility of a glaucoma polygenic risk score in four population-based European-ancestry cohorts

ObjectiveWe used a polygenic risk score (PRS) to identify high-risk groups for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) within population-based cohorts. DesignSecondary analysis of four prospective population-based studies. ParticipantsWe included four European-ancestry cohorts: the United States (US) based Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), NHS2, and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, and the Rotterdam Study (RS) in the Netherlands. The US cohorts included female nurses and male health professionals aged 55+ years. The RS included residents aged 45 years or older living in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. MethodsPRS weights were estimated by applying the Lassosum method on imputed genotype and phenotype data from the UK-Biobank. This resulted in 144,020 variants, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) and indels, with non-zero betas that we used to calculate a PRS in the target populations. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, we estimated the relationship between the standardized PRS and relative risk for POAG. Additionally, POAG prediction was tested by calculating these models’ concordance (Harrell’s C-statistic). Finally, we assessed the association between PRS tertiles and glaucoma-related traits. Main Outcome MeasuresThe relative risk for POAG and Harrell’s C-statistic (the equivalent of an area-under-the-curve for longitudinal models). ResultsAmong 1,046 cases and 38,809‬ controls, the relative risk (95% confidence interval) for POAG for participants in the highest PRS quintile was 3.99 (3.08, 5.18) in the US cohorts, and 4.89 (2.93, 8.17) in the Rotterdam Study, compared with participants with median genetic risk (3rd quintile). In restricted cubic spline analyses, the relation between continuous PRS and POAG risk increased exponentially in the US and Rotterdam cohorts (Pspline<0.05). Combining age, sex, intraocular pressure >25 mmHg, and family history resulted in a meta-analyzed concordance of 0.75 (0.73, 0.75). Adding the PRS to this model improved the concordance to 0.82 (0.80, 0.84). In a meta-analysis of all cohorts, cases in the highest tertile had a larger cup-disc ratio at diagnosis, by 0.11 (0.07, 0.15), and a 2.07-fold increased risk of requiring glaucoma surgery (1.19, 3.60). ConclusionsIncorporating a PRS into a POAG predictive model improves identification concordance from 0.75 up to 0.82, supporting its potential for guiding more cost-effective screening strategies.

Morbidity burden of imported chronic schistosomiasis among West African migrants

Past exposure to schistosomiasis is frequent among migrants from endemic countries, and chronic untreated infection may lead to long-term morbidities. We carried out a prospective population-based cross-sectional study among migrants from endemic Sub-Saharan countries living in Barcelona, Spain. Participants had not been previously diagnosed or treated for schistosomiasis. Clinical signs and symptoms were scrutinised through a systematic revision of electronic medical records and an on-site standardised questionnaire, and blood and urine samples were screened for Schistosoma. We recruited 522 eligible participants, 74.3% males, mean age 42.7 years (SD=11.5, range 18-76), Overall, 46.4% were from Senegal and 23.6% from Gambia. They had lived in the European Union for a median of 16 years (IQR 10-21). The prevalence of a Schistosoma-positive serology was 35.8%. S. haematobium eggs were observed in urine samples in 6 (1.2%) participants. The most prevalent symptoms among Schistosoma-positive participants were chronic abdominal pain (68.8%, OR=1.79; 95%CI 1.2-2.6), eosinophilia (44.9%, OR=2.69; 95%CI 1.8-4.0) and specific symptoms associated with urinary schistosomiasis, like self-reported episodes of haematuria (37.2%; OR=2.47; 95%CI 1.6-3.8), dysuria (47.9%, OR=1.84; 95%CI=1.3-2.7) and current renal insufficiency (13.4%; OR=2.35; 95%CI=1.3-4.3). We found a significant prevalence of gender-specific genital signs and symptoms among females (mainly menstrual disorders) and males (erectile dysfunction and pelvic pain). Individuals typically presented with a multitude of interconnected symptoms, most commonly chronic abdominal pain, which are often disregarded. Despite the lack of urine parasite identification, the high incidence of clinical signs and symptoms strongly correlated with a positive schistosomiasis serology suggests the existence of a heavy clinical burden among long-term West African migrants living for years/decades in the study region. More research is urgently required to determine whether these symptoms are the result of long-term sequelae or a persistent active Schistosoma infection.

Association of lipopolysaccharide-type endotoxins with retinal neurodegeneration: the Alienor study

PurposeLipopolysaccharide (LPS) -type endotoxins are naturally found in the gut microbiota and there is emerging evidence linking gut microbiota and neuroinflammation leading to retinal neurodegeneration. Thinning of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) is a biomarker of retinal neurodegeneration, and a hallmark of glaucoma, the second leading cause of blindness worldwide. We assessed the association of a blood biomarker of LPS with peripapillary RNFL thickness (RNFLT) and its longitudinal evolution up to 11 years. DesignThe Alienor study is a single center prospective population-based cohort study. SubjectsThe studied sample of this study includes 1062 eyes of 548 participants receiving at least one gradable RNFL measurement. MethodsPlasma esterified 3-hydroxy fatty acids (3-OH FAs) were measured as a proxy of LPS burden. RNFLT was acquired using spectral domain optical coherence tomography imaging every two years from 2009 to 2020 (up to 5 visits). Main Outcome MeasureAssociations of plasma esterified 3-OH FAs with RNFLT were assessed using linear mixed models. ResultsMean age of the included 548 participants was 82.4 ± 4.3 years and 62.6 % were women. Higher plasma esterified 3-OH FAs was significantly associated with thinner RNFLT at baseline (Coefficient Beta (ß)= -1.42 microns for 1 SD-increase in 3-OH FAs, 95% confidence interval [-2.56; -0.28], p = 0.02). This association remained stable after multivariate adjustment for potential confounders. No statistically significant association was found between 3-OH FAs and longitudinal RNFLT change. ConclusionsHigher plasma esterified 3-OH FAs were associated with thinner RNFLT at baseline, indicating an involvement of LPS in the early processes of optic nerve neurodegeneration and highlighting the potential importance of the human microbiota in preserving retinal health.

Introduction of one-view tomosynthesis in population-based mammography screening: Impact on detection rate, interval cancer rate and false-positive rate.

To assess performance endpoints of a combination of digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and full-field digital mammography (FFDM) compared with FFDM only in breast cancer screening. This was a prospective population-based screening study, including eligible (50-69 years) women attending the Capital Region Mammography Screening Program in Denmark. All attending women were offered FFDM. A subgroup was consecutively allocated to a screening room with DBT. All FFDM and DBT underwent independent double reading, and all women were followed up for 2 years after screening date or until next screening date, whichever came first. 6353 DBT + FFDM and 395 835 FFDM were included in the analysis and were undertaken in 196 267 women in the period from 1 November 2012 to 12 December 2018. Addition of DBT increased sensitivity: 89.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 81.0-95.5) for DBT + FFDM and 70.1% (95% CI: 68.6-71.6) for FFDM only, p < 0.001. Specificity remained similar: 98.2% (95% CI: 97.9-98.5) for DBT + FFDM and 98.3% (95% CI: 98.2-98.3) for FFDM only, p = 0.9. Screen-detected cancer rate increased statistically significantly: 11.18/1000 for DBT + FFDM and 6.49/1000 for FFDM only, p < 0.001. False-positive rate was unchanged: 1.75% for DBT + FFDM and 1.73% for FFDM only, p = 0.9. Positive predictive value for recall was 39.0% (95% CI: 31.9-46.5) for DBT + FFDM and 27.3% (95% CI: 26.4-28.2), for FFDM only, p < 0.0005. The interval cancer rate decreased: 1.26/1000 for DBT + FFDM and 2.76/1000 for FFDM only, p = 0.02. DBT + FFDM yielded a statistically significant increase in cancer detection and program sensitivity.

Influence of Hospital Type on Outcomes of Patients With Acute Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Population-Based Study.

Whether the outcome of patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) differs depending on the type of hospital where they are admitted is uncertain. The objective of this study was to determine influence of hospital type at admission (telestroke center [TSC], primary stroke center [PSC], or comprehensive stroke center [CSC]) on outcome for patients with ICH. We hypothesized that outcomes may be better for patients admitted to a CSC. This is a multicenter prospective observational and population-based study of a cohort of consecutively recruited patients with ICH (March 2020-March 2022). We included all patients with spontaneous ICH in Catalonia (Spain) who had a pre-ICH modified Rankin scale (mRS) score of 0-3 and who were admitted to the hospital within 24 hours of onset. We compared patients admitted to a TSC/PSC (n = 641) or a CSC (n = 1,320) and also analyzed the subgroup of patients transferred (n = 331) or not transferred (n = 310) from a TSC/PSC to a CSC. The main outcome was the 3-month mRS score obtained by blinded investigators. Outcomes were compared using adjusted ordinal logistic regression to estimate the common odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI for a shift in mRS scores. A propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed for the subgroup of transferred patients. Relevant data were obtained from 1961 of a total of 2,230 patients, with the mean (SD) age of 70 (14.1) years, and 713 (38%) patients were women. After adjusting for confounders (age, NIH Stroke Scale score, intraventricular hemorrhage, hematoma volume, and pre-ICH mRS score), type of hospital of initial admission (CSC vs TSC/PSC) was not associated with outcome (adjusted common OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.93-1.38). A PSM analysis indicated that transfer to a CSC was not associated with more favorable outcomes (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.55-1.10; p = 0.16). In this population-based study, we found that, after adjusting for confounders, hospital types were not associated with functional outcomes. In addition, for patients who were transferred from a TSC/PSC to a CSC, PSM indicated that outcomes were similar to nontransferred patients. Our findings suggest that patient characteristics are more important than hospital characteristics in determining outcome after ICH. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03956485.

Ambient air pollution, covert cerebrovascular disease and cognition: results from the ISSYS study.

Although air pollution (AP) has been associated with stroke and dementia, data regarding its relationship with covert cerebrovascular disease (cCVD) and cognition over time are sparse. The aim of this study was to explore these relationships. A prospective population-based study of 976 stroke-free and non-demented individuals living in Barcelona, Spain, was conducted during 2010-2016. A land use regression model was used to estimate the exposure of each participant to AP: NOx, NO2, PM2.5, PM10, PMcoarse and PM2.5 absorbance. Cognitive function and cCVD were assessed at baseline (n = 976) and 4 years after (n = 317). Multivariate-adjusted models were developed. At baseline, 99 participants (10.1%) had covert brain infarcts and 91 (9.3%) had extensive periventricular white matter hyperintensities (WMHs). Marked subcortical WMH progression was seen in 19.7%; the incidence of other covert cerebrovascular lessons ranged between 5% and 6% each. PM2.5 was related to higher odds of having a covert brain infarct (odds ratio [OR] 2.21; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-4.60). PM2.5 absorbance was related to higher odds of having extensive subcortical WMHs (OR 1.72; 95% CI 1.13-2.60), whereas NO2 was related to higher odds of having extensive subcortical (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.17-2.35) or periventricular (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.10-3.50) WMHs and to higher odds of developing marked subcortical WMH progression (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.05-1.90). NOx was related to incident cerebral microbleeds (OR 1.36; 95% CI 1.04-1.79). There was no association between AP and cognition. Air pollutant predicts the presence and accumulation of cCVD. Its impact on cognitive impairment remains to be determined.

Serum Branched-Chain Amino Acids and Long-Term Complications of Liver Cirrhosis: Evidence from a Population-Based Prospective Study.

The role of serum branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) in long-term liver cirrhosis complication events remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the associations between serum BCAAs and the risk of liver-related events. We included a total of 64,005 participants without liver cirrhosis complication events at baseline from the UK Biobank. Cox proportional hazards regression models were utilized to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the incidence of liver cirrhosis complication events, adjusting for potential confounders, including sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Relationships between serum BCAAs and liver cirrhosis complications were examined using nonparametrically restricted cubic spline regression. During a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 583 participants developed liver cirrhosis complication events. The multivariable Cox regression model suggested that total BCAAs (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.82-0.95), serum leucine (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.95), serum isoleucine (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.82-0.96), and serum valine (HR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.96) were all independent protective factors for liver cirrhosis complications after adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Cox models with restricted cubic splines showed U-shaped associations between serum valine and liver cirrhosis complication incidence. Serum total BCAA and isoleucine concentrations might reduce the risk of liver cirrhosis complications by raising the risk of (type 2 diabetes mellitus) T2DM. Lower serum BCAA levels exacerbate the long-term risk of liver cirrhosis complications. Future studies should confirm these findings and identify the biological pathways of these associations.

Depressive symptoms and sex differences in the risk of post-COVID-19 persistent symptoms: a prospective population-based cohort study

Depressive symptoms and sex differences in the risk of post-COVID-19 persistent symptoms: a prospective population-based cohort study

Gestational weight gain as a mediator of the relationship between pre-pregnancy body mass index and the risk of preterm birth: A four-way decomposition analysis.

The aim of the present study was to examine and quantify whether the association between preterm birth (PTB) and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) is mediated by gestational weight gain (GWG). This is a secondary analysis of a large randomized community non-inferiority trial using a cohort design. The data of 26 101 pregnant women in their first trimester who sought prenatal care and met eligibility criteria were included. The four-way decomposition method was applied to screen for all types of association effects of pre-pregnancy BMI on the risk of PTB. These effects include the total, direct, and various indirect effects including pure mediation via GWG, interactive effects with GWG, and mediated interaction with GWG, all adjusted for potential confounders. Among the study participants, 24 461 (93.7%) had term deliveries, while 1640 (6.3%) experienced PTB. The results of the study showed that there was a positive association between pre-pregnancy BMI among those with BMI more than 25 kg/m2 and the risk of PTB and this association was negatively mediated and interacted by GWG, which differed quantitatively between those who had inadequate, adequate, or excessive GWG. The total association effect showed that the risk was lowest for those who had underweight pre-pregnancy BMI and adequate GWG (excess relative risk [RR]: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.01-0.11, P value: 0.022) and was highest for those who had obese pre-pregnancy BMI and excessive GWG (excess RR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.35-1.00, P value <0.001). The findings of the present prospective population-based study demonstrated that pre-pregnancy BMI >25 kg/m2 is directly and positively associated with the risk of preterm birth. The highest risk of preterm birth was observed among individuals with an obese pre-pregnancy BMI who also experienced excessive GWG.

The Norwegian Watch and Wait study: Norwait for rectal cancer. A report from a failed study-a word of caution.

The paucity of prospective data on the subject of Watch and Wait for rectal cancer prompted the implementation of Norwait, a population-based study including rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant therapy. The aim of the study was to assess the accuracy of clinical complete response (cCR) and quantify the regrowth rates. Norwait was a prospective population-based observational study with ethical approval (2017/935) registered at clinicaltrials.com (NTC03402477). Residents of Norway with histologically proven rectal cancer located within 15cm from anal verge were eligible following completion of radiotherapy or chemoradiation at seven hospitals. cCR was the disappearance of tumour and of any ulcer with/without the appearance of whitening of prior tumour site and telangiectasia evaluated at 12weeks by digital rectal exam, and endoscopic imaging. The study aimed to include 100 cCR patients with regrowth rates as primary endpoint. The data are presented in crude form. Eighty-two patients were included in seven hospitals from 2018 to 2020 when the study was terminated. Fifty-one patients were included in six hospitals, whereas protocol violations were identified in one hospital, where thirty-one (rather than protocol-estimated 12) patients were enrolled. Amongst the 31 patients, there were only 2 with documented cCR. Of the latter 29, there were 16 with ulcer or persistent tumour, and 13 without any documentation of cCR. Of these, 23 underwent surgery with a delay up to 50weeks. At median 54-month follow-up of 31 patients, there were 77% local regrowths (n = 23), 40% metachronous metastases (n = 12) and 23% deaths (n = 7). At median 54-month follow-up of 51 cCR patients, there were 53% local regrowths (n = 27), 14% metachronous metastases (n = 7) and 4% deaths (n = 2). Norwait admonishes a word of caution reaching beyond the inconclusive results of a population-based study jeopardised by serious violation to protocol and legislation for conducting safe research.

Diagnostic accuracy of dipsticks for urinary tract infections in acutely hospitalised patients: a prospective population-based observational cohort study

ObjectiveTo determine the added diagnostic value of dipsticks for urinary tract infections (UTI) in acutely hospitalised individuals.DesignProspective population-based cohort study.SettingNorth Denmark.ParticipantsAll adults (≥18 years) examined with dipsticks at emergency departments...

Personalized starting age of gastric cancer screening based on individuals' risk profiles: a population-based prospective study.

The current recommended starting age for gastric cancer (GC) lacks unified guideline and individualized criteria. We aimed to determine risk-stratified starting age for GC screening in China based on individuals' risk profiles, and develop an online calculator for clinical application. In this multi-center population-based prospective study, we divided participants enrolled during 2015-2017 (n = 59,771, aged 40-69) into screened and unscreened groups and observed them for primary endpoints-GC occurrence, all-cause and GC-specific deaths. The median follow-up was 6.07 years. To determine the reference starting age, the effectiveness of GC screening was assessed by age-groups after propensity-score-matching. Further, we categorized the calculated individual risk scores (using well-established risk factors) by quantiles. Subsequently, we used age-specific 10-year cumulative risk curves to estimate the risk-stratified starting age-when the individual's risk level matches reference starting age risk threshold. During follow-up, 475 GC cases, 182 GC deaths and 1,860 all-cause deaths occurred. All-cause and GC-specific mortality decreased among screened individuals aged ≥45 and 50-59 years, respectively. Thus, the average population (reference) starting age was set as 50 years. The 10-year cumulative risk of GC in average population aged 50 was 1.147%. We stratified the starting age using eight risk factors, and categorized participants as low-, medium-, and high-risk individuals, whose risk-stratified starting age was 58, 50, and 46, respectively. While high-risk individuals warrant 3-5 years earlier GC screening than average population (age 50), low-risk individuals can tolerate delayed screening. Our online, personalized starting-age calculator will help risk-adapted GC screening (https://web.consultech.com.cn/gastric/#/).

Association between Parkinson’s disease and cardiovascular disease mortality: a prospective population-based study from NHANES

Background and aimConflicting results have been reported on the association between Parkinson's disease (PD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in different populations. Therefore, studying the relationship between PD and CVD mortality is crucial to reduce mortality caused by the former.MethodsIn this cohort investigation, we enrolled 28,242 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey spanning from 2003 to 2018. The 380 cases of PD in the cohort were identified by documenting ‘ANTIPARKINSON AGENTS’ in their reported prescription medications. Mortality outcomes were ascertained by cross-referencing the cohort database with the National Death Index, which was last updated on 31 December 2019. Cardiovascular disease mortality was categorised according to the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases by using a spectrum of diagnostic codes. Weighted multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to examine the association between PD and the risk of CVD mortality.ResultsA total of 28,242 adults were included in the study [mean age, 60.156 (12.55) years, 13,766 men (48.74%)], and the median follow-up period was 89 months. Individuals with PD had an adjusted HR of 1.82 (95% CI, 1.24–2.69; p = 0.002) for CVD mortality and 1.84 (95% CI, 1.44–2.33; p < 0.001) for all-cause mortality compared with those without PD. The association between PD and CVD mortality was robust in sensitivity analyses, after excluding participants who died within 2 years of follow-up and those with a history of cancer at baseline [HR,1.82 (95% CI, 1.20–2.75; p = 0.005)].ConclusionsPD was associated with a high long-term CVD mortality rate in the US population.

P-772 Assisted reproductive technology and the risk of minor congenital heart defects in the newborn

Abstract Study question Are children conceived through assisted reproductive technology (ART) at higher risk of minor congenital heart defects (CHD) compared with naturally conceived (NC) children? Summary answer Contrary to previous studies children conceived through ART had similar risk of minor CHDs compared with children conceived naturally. What is known already Congenital heart defects (CHD) may precipitate cardiac arrhythmias, lead to thromboembolic events, culminate in heart failure or even sudden cardiac demise. A systematic review and meta-analysis showed an elevated odds ratio (OR) for diagnosis of any CHD among children conceived through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) compared with NC children. Other studies indicate that ART is associated with an increased arterial blood pressure and vascular dysfunction in the pulmonary and systemic arterial vasculature. This association persists throughout childhood, adolescence, and early adulthood in individuals conceived through ART; this indicates a lasting impact on the cardiovascular circulatory system. Study design, size, duration The present study is a sub-study to the Copenhagen Baby Heart Study (CBHS), a prospective population-based cohort study of &amp;gt; 25 000 children born in the three main maternity wards in Copenhagen, Denmark, in 2016–2018. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) was performed on all children within 60 days of delivery and diagnosis of CHD was reviewed by a specialist in paediatric cardiology. Information regarding parental health, pregnancy, delivery, and the newborn was collected through Danish patient registries. Participants/materials, setting, methods This study includes all children conceived by ART in the CBHS (n = 1 784), and a matched group (1:4 by maternal age at birth) of NC children (n = 7 141). Exclusion criteria were genetic or chromosomal syndromes and heart surgery. Minor CHD was defined as an atrial (ASD) or ventricular septum defects (VSD), bicuspid aortic valve, coarctation of the aorta, pulmonary stenosis, or patent ductus arteriosus. We calculated ORs using logistic regression analyses. Main results and the role of chance The mean maternal age at birth was 34.9 (standard deviation [SD] ±4.4) and 35.1 years (SD ± 4.6) and the newborn mean age at TTE was 12.1 (SD ± 9.3) and 12.2 days (SD ± 9.4) in the ART and NC population, respectively. Parental CHD was registered in 40 (2.2 %) children in the ART group and 121 (1.7 %) in the NC group. Overall, 165 (9.2%) children conceived by ART and 611 (8.6%) NC children were diagnosed with a minor CHD. The most prevalent CHDs were VSD and ASD which accounted for 38.8 % and 35.2 % in children with CHD in the ART group, respectively, and 36.8 % and 33.9 % in children with CHD in the NC group. The unadjusted OR for minor CHD was 1.09 (95% CI 0.91–1.30). Adjustments for maternal age and parental CHD did not change the OR. There were no differences in ORs when stratifying by minor CHD type. We stratified by the method of ART: ICSI and IVF and frozen embryo transfer and fresh embryo transfer, and calculated risk of minor CHD comparing the methods and with NC children. We found no difference in any ORs, crude or adjusted. Limitations, reasons for caution Children born preterm, and children with severe minor and major CHDs, were underrepresented in the cohort indicating parents of such children chose not to participate in a research project that would include another hospital visit. Residual confounding is plausible because parental CHD diagnoses were retrieved from patient registries. Wider implications of the findings The number of children conceived through ART is increasing each year and previous research have found an increased risk of CHD in children conceived through ART. Our findings indicate no increased risk of minor CHD, providing comforting and significant information for advising individuals considering or undergoing ART treatment. Trial registration number NCT02753348

First stroke incidence, causes, treatments, and outcomes for Aboriginal Peoples in South Australia and the Northern Territory: a pilot prospective study.

We performed a pilot stroke incidence study, focused on feasibility and inclusion of the CONSIDER reporting guidelines, to model the design of a future population-based study aiming to definitively determine stroke incidence, antecedents, treatment, and outcomes. Prospective stroke incidence study (pilot study). All people aged 15 years or older who lived in postcode-defined areas of South Australia and Northern Territory (885 472 people, including 45 127 Aboriginal people [5.1%]) diagnosed with stroke for the first time during 1 October - 31 December 2015 and admitted to public hospitals or stroke and transient ischaemic attack clinics. Feasibility of a prospective population-based stroke incidence study. Of the 123 participants with first strokes, ten were Aboriginal (8%); the median age of Aboriginal people was 45 years (interquartile range [IQR], 33-55 years), of non-Indigenous people 73 years (IQR, 62-84 years). For Aboriginal people, the age-standardised incidence of stroke was 104 (95% confidence interval [CI], 84-124) per 100 000 person-years, for non-Indigenous people 33 (95% CI, 22-44) per 100 000 person-years. We found that a prospective population-based stroke incidence study in Aboriginal people was feasible, including with respect to establishing an adequate sample size, diagnostic confirmation, identification of incident stroke, confirming stroke subtypes, establishing a stable statistical population, standardising data reporting for comparison with other stroke incidence studies, and ethical research reporting that conforms to CONSIDER guidelines. A larger, population-based study of the incidence of stroke in Aboriginal people is both feasible and needed to provide robust estimates of stroke incidence, antecedents, treatments and outcomes to help guide strategies for reducing the risk of and outcomes of stroke in Aboriginal people.