Prospective Nested Case Control Study Research Articles

Predicting Mortality and Use of RISC Scoring System in Hospitalized Under-Five Children Due to WHO Defined Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia

Pneumonia acquired in the community is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in under-five children. Predicting mortality in children remains a challenge. There is a need of consolidated scoring system to predict mortality in under-five children in developing nations. This is a hospital-based prospective nested case-control study, conducted in a tertiary care teaching hospital of north India. Included were under-five hospitalized children due to WHO defined severe community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Those who did not survive were categorized as cases, while those who were discharged were categorized as controls. The mortality rate among the recruited 180 hospitalized children with severe CAP was 9.4%. The mortality in under-five children was higher among infants, children who resided in rural areas and were unimmunized or partially immunized for the present age. Mortality was also statistically significantly higher among under-five children with weight for age and weight for length/height below -2Z score; SpO2 < 90% at room air at admission, cyanosis, convulsion, high C-reactive protein (CRP), blood culture positive sepsis and end point consolidation. These predictors were found to be independent risk factors for the mortality after analyzing in multivariate model while presence of wheeze and exclusive breast feeding for first six months of life were found to be protective. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for respiratory index of severity in children (RISC) score has area under curve (AUC) 0.91 while AUC of RISC score with King George's Medical University (KGMU) modification has 0.88 for prediction of mortality. At the cut-off level of 3, the sensitivity of the RISC score in predicting mortality was 94.1% while the specificity was 73.6%. However, the sensitivity of the RISC score with KGMU modification in predicting mortality at cut-off level of 3 was 88.4% with a specificity of 74.8%. Various predictors for mortality under-five children are young age, malnutrition, cyanosis, high CRP, blood culture positive sepsis and end point consolidation. It is also possible to predict mortality using RISC score which comprises simple variables and can be easily used at centers of periphery. Similar accuracy had been also found through the use of an age independent modified score (RISC score with KGMU modification).Lay summaryPneumonia is a primary cause of hospitalization as well as death among the children under the age of five. A variety of severity or mortality predicting scores have been produced for adults, but such scores for children are scarce. Furthermore, their utility in developing nations has not been proven. This is a hospital-based prospective study. Included were children under five (2 to 59 months) hospitalized due to severe community acquired pneumonia (CAP) defined as per World Health Organization (WHO) and were not hospitalized in last 14 days elsewhere. Those who did not survive were classified as cases while those who were discharged were classified as controls. A total of 200 consecutively hospitalized children with severe CAP based on WHO were screened and 180 children were recruited. Among recruited children, the percentage of mortality was 9.4% while 90.6% were discharged. The mortality was higher among children younger than 12 months, those belonged to rural area and were unimmunized or partially immunized for the present age. Mortality was also higher among under-five children with severe malnutrition, anemia, SpO2 < 90% at room air at admission, cyanosis, convulsion, thrombocytopenia, high CRP, blood culture positive sepsis and end point consolidation. After assessing in a multivariate model, these predictors were determined to be independent risk factor for death, while wheezing and exclusive breast feeding throughout the first six months of life were found to be protective. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for respiratory index of severity in children (RISC) score has an area under curve (AUC) of 0.91 while AUC of RISC score with King George's Medical University (KGMU) modification was 0.88 for the prediction of death in under-five children hospitalized due to severe CAP.

IGFBP7 as a preoperative predictor of congestive acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery

ObjectiveCongestive acute kidney injury (c-AKI) refers to AKI in the presence of right ventricular failure (RVF) and is a highly morbid complication of cardiac surgery. However, treatment has traditionally been...

Metabolomics on vascular events and death after acute ischemic stroke: A prospective matched nested case-control study

Background and aimsIschemic stroke is a major contributor to global mortality and disability. Metabolomics represents a powerful tool for discovering biomarkers of ischemic stroke due to its ability to detect metabolites small enough to cross the blood–brain barrier. The aim of this study is to identify potential metabolic biomarkers for predicting 1-year vascular events and death after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). MethodsWe adopted a nested case-control design from a multicenter prospective cohort study. A total of 143 AIS patients with 1-year vascular events/death and 143 sex-, age- and center-matched patients without 1-year vascular events/death were selected, and further divided into the discovery set (n = 140) and validation set (n = 146). We then performed untargeted metabolomics analysis by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. ResultsMetabolomics analyses could predict 1-year vascular events and death after AIS using pattern recognition methods. Eight metabolites (e.g., LysoPC(18:1)) were identified as potential biomarkers of AIS prognosis. Four of them (e.g., PS(O-18:0/0:0)) were found to be significantly decreased in patients with early vascular events/death. Adding these metabolic biomarkers to traditional factors resulted in a great improvement of the predictive utility for 1-year vascular events/death, with net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement being 0.9143 (p < 0.0001) and 0.1906 (p < 0.0001) in the discovery cohort, and 0.9041 (p < 0.0001) and 0.1896 (p < 0.0001) in the validation cohort. ConclusionsThis study found several metabolic biomarkers for 1-year vascular events and death after AIS, providing opportunities for the construction of prognostic models and the discovery of novel therapeutic targets.

Predictive value of the second-trimester fibronectin concentration for severe preeclampsia: A prospective nested case-control study in China.

To evaluate the value of the second-trimester fibronectin concentration, alone and in combination with other markers (e.g., mean arterial pressure, inhibin A), in the identification of women who subsequently develop severe preeclampsia. For this prospective nested case-control study, serum from pregnant women (gestational age 15-22 weeks) who underwent routine Down syndrome screening was analyzed. The women were tracked to delivery and assigned to the severe preeclampsia or control group, according to whether they developed severe preeclampsia. Each woman who later developed severe preeclampsia was paired with five healthy women with pregnancies of similar gestational age (± 1week). Fibronectin, inhibin A, human chorionic gonadotropin, placental growth factor, cysteine, and homocysteine concentrations were measured in 44 cases in the severe preeclampsia group and 220 cases in the control group. The body mass index and mean arterial pressure were calculated. All results were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve construction were conducted for markers differing significantly between two groups. The second-trimester fibronectin value was positively correlated with severe preeclampsia and predicted 67.7% of severe preeclampsia cases. The combination of fibronectin, inhibin A, and mean arterial pressure predicted 76.7% of severe preeclampsia cases; predictive values for combinations of fibronectin with mean arterial pressure or inhibin A were 75.4% and 74.6%, respectively. Combination with these other markers increased the predictive value of fibronectin. In addition, fibronectin was more powerful for the late severe preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia without fetal growth restriction subgroups. The second-trimester fibronectin concentration can be used to predict severe preeclampsia.

Risk factors for postoperative delirium in children with congenital heart disease: a prospective nested case-control study.

To study the risk factors for postoperative delirium (POD) in children with congenital heart disease. A prospective nested case-control study was performed on children with congenital heart disease who underwent surgery in Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, from December 2020 to June 2021. The clinical data were compared between the POD group (n=114) and non-POD group (n=102). A multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for POD in children with congenital heart disease. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=0.951, P<0.001), gender (OR=2.127, P=0.049), number of invasive catheters per day (OR=1.490, P=0.017), degree of postoperative pain (OR=5.856, P<0.001), and preoperative parental anxiety level (OR=1.025, P=0.010) were independent risk factors for POD in children with congenital heart disease. The risk of POD increases in children with congenital heart disease who are younger, male, have higher number of invasive catheters per day, higher degree of postoperative pain, or higher preoperative parental anxiety level.

Multi-marker risk-based screening for prostate cancer.

ObjectiveTo determine prostate cancer screening performance using prostate specific antigen (PSA) along with other markers, expressing markers in age-specific multiples of the median (MoM), and age.MethodsA prospective nested case-control study used stored serum from 571 men who died of, or with history of, prostate cancer (cases), and 2169 matched controls. Total, free and intact PSA, human kallikrein-related peptidase 2 (hK2), and microseminoprotein were measured and converted into MoM values. Screening marker distribution parameters were estimated in cases and controls. Monte Carlo simulation used these in a risk-based algorithm to estimate screening performance (detection rates [DRs] and false-positive rates [FPRs]).ResultsAlmost all (99%) cases occurred aged ≥55. Marker values were similar in cases who did and did not die of prostate cancer. Combining age, total PSA and hK2 MoM values (other markers added little or no discrimination) yielded a 1.2% FPR (95% CI 0.2–4.8%) for a 90% DR (59–98%) in men who died of or with a prostate cancer diagnosis within 5 years of blood collection (risk cut-off 1 in 20), two-thirds less than the 4.5% FPR using total PSA alone measured in ng/ml for the same 90% DR (cut-off 3.1 ng/ml). Screening performance over 10 years yielded a 33% (22–46%) FPR for a 90% DR.ConclusionScreening performed up to every 5 years from age 55 using the multi-marker risk-based screening algorithm for future prostate cancer achieves a high DR and a much lower FPR than using PSA alone, resulting in reductions in overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

Estrogenic Activity and Risk of Invasive Breast Cancer Among Postmenopausal Women in the Nurses' Health Study

Estrogens increase breast cancer risk through estrogen receptor (ER)-mediated pathway activation. It is unclear whether a broader assessment of plasma compounds that lead to ER activation would be more strongly related to risk than measurement of individual estrogens. A prospective nested case-control study was conducted among postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study, that included 371 cases with blood samples collected prior to breast cancer diagnosis and 731 matched controls. Total estrogen pathway activity (EA) was assessed via a luciferase reporter assay using plasma-treated T47D-Kbluc (ATCC) human breast cancer cells. We also assessed the contribution of EA to risk, independent of circulating estrone, estradiol, and estrone sulfate concentrations. Multivariable ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using conditional logistic regression adjusting for breast cancer risk factors. Women in the highest, versus lowest EA quartile had an 86% increased risk of invasive breast cancer (ORQ4vsQ1, 1.86; 95% CI = 1.16-2.97). After accounting for estradiol only, a weaker association was observed (ORQ4vsQ1, 1.27; 95% CI = 0.75-2.17). No association was observed after accounting for all three estrogens (ORQ4vsQ1, 1.01; 95% CI = 0.56-1.84). A positive association between EA and breast cancer risk was observed. However, the association was substantially attenuated after accounting for levels of other estrogens. Our study provides a first detailed assessment of a breast cancer cell line-based EA assay and postmenopausal breast cancer risk.

Intestinal microbiome and its relationship with necrotizing enterocolitis in very low birth weight preterm infants

Objective: To explore the composition of intestinal microflora prior to onset of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in very low birth weight preterm infants. Methods: This was a multicenter prospective nested case-control study. A total of 46 very low birth weight preterm infants (birth weight <1 500 g and gestional age <35 weeks) within 24 h of life admitted into Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Children's Hospital of Soochow University and Suzhou Municipal Hospital from April 20 to November 20, 2018 were enrolled. Baseline clinical data and fecal samples of these infants were collected. The subsequent sampling time points were 1st, 4th and 7th day in the first week of life then once per week consecutively. The endpoint of sampling was NEC occurrence, patient discharge or the 8th week post-discharge, whichever came first. Fecal samples were analyzed by 16 S rDNA high-throughput nucleotide sequencing. The control cases were infants without NEC who were matched to the NEC cases with a ratio of 1∶1. The operational taxonomic units (OTU), sequence number and shannon diversity index of the fecal samples were analyzed. Continuous variables were compared with t-test or non-parametric test, and χ2 test or Fisher's exact test was used for categorical variables. Results: There were 23 patients in each group. The gestational age was (29.4±1.8) weeks in NEC group and (29.9±1.6) weeks in control group, including 13 males (57%) and 11 males (48%) in each group, respectively. Species abundance showed that the Firmicutes in both groups decreased temporarily at 7 days of age and then increased with age in control group, but not in NEC group, the Proteobacteria in both groups increased at 7 days of age and then decreased in control group, but kept increasing in NEC group. Regarding the other levels of taxonomy, compared with that of the control group, the NEC group had lower abundance of Proteobacteria, γ-proteobacteria and Enterobacteriaceae at 7 days of age, while higer abundance of Faecalibacterium at 14 days of age, meanwhile, lower Clostridium and Streptococcus at 21 days of age, lower Firmicutes, Clostridia and Clostridium perfringens and higher Proteobacteria and γ-proteobacteria at 28 days of age, these differences were all statistically significant (U=43.00, 43.00, 45.00, 80.00, 74.00, 76.00, 19.00, 8.00, 36.00, 25.00, 25.00,all P<0.05). The shannon index of NEC group was both lower than that of the controls at 21 days of age (2.4 (1.4, 3.0) vs. 3.1 (2.6, 4.0), U=67.00, P=0.027) and 28 days of age (2.4 (1.4, 2.8) vs. 3.9 (3.3, 4.2), U=12.00, P=0.001). Conclusions: The intestinal microflora profile of very low birth weight preterm infants has already changed prior to NEC development. The emergence of differential flora and the reduction of microflora diversity may facilitate early identification and prevention of NEC.

Prognostic death factors in secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis children with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome receiving continuous renal replacement therapy: A multicenter prospective nested case-control study.

IntroductionMultiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) with secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (SHLH) causes significant mortality. We aimed to identify the predictor factors for death in pediatric patients with SHLH‐associated MODS receiving continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT).MethodsThis multicentered nested case–control study was conducted from 2016 to 2020. The characteristics were compared between survivors and non‐survivors. Logistic regression was applied to identify the risk factors for death. The cutoff values were assessed by receiver operating characteristics curves.ResultsFifty two patients were enrolled in this study. Interleukin‐6 level (p = 0.018) and the number of organ dysfunction (p = 0.047) were independent risk factors for death. The cutoff value of 13.12 pg/ml interleukin‐6 and three organs dysfunction at CRRT initiation presented a high sensitivity and specificity.ConclusionThe number of organ dysfunction and interleukin‐6 at CRRT initiation are independent risk factors for death in pediatric patients with SHLH‐associated MODS.

Ten-year changes in plasma L-carnitine levels and risk of coronary heart disease.

L-Carnitine is abundant in animal source foods, particularly red meat, and circulating L-carnitine may be related to the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). We investigated whether long-term changes in plasma L-carnitine over 10years were associated with the CHD incidence and also examined joint associations of carnitine-rich red meat consumption and L-carnitine changes on the subsequent risk of CHD. This prospective nested case-control study included 772 healthy women at baseline (386 incident CHD cases and 386 healthy controls). Plasma L-carnitine levels were measured both at the first (1989-90) and second blood collections (2000-02). Incident cases of CHD were prospectively followed from the date of the second blood collection through 2016. Overall, a greater increase in L-carnitine from the first to the second time point was related to a higher risk of CHD, regardless of the initial L-carnitine levels (relative risk: 1.36 (95% CI 0.999, 1.84) per 1-SD increase). The 10-year changes in L-carnitine were positively associated with red meat consumption over time, and women with higher red meat intake (≥ 36g/day) and with greater increases in L-carnitine had a 1.86 (95% CI 1.13, 3.09) times increased risk of CHD, as compared to those with lower red meat intake and lesser increases in L-carnitine. Long-term increases in L-carnitine levels were associated with the subsequent incidence of CHD, especially among women with higher intake of red meat. Our results suggest the importance of atherogenic L-carnitine changes and dietary intakes over time in the prevention of CHD.

Plasma lipidomics in early pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: a prospective nested case–control study in Chinese women

Lipid metabolism plays an important role in the pathogenesis of diabetes. There is little evidence regarding the prospective association of the maternal lipidome with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), especially in Chinese populations. We aimed to identify novel lipid species associated with GDM risk in Chinese women, and assess the incremental predictive capacity of the lipids for GDM. We conducted a nested case-control study using the Tongji-Shuangliu Birth Cohort with 336 GDM cases and 672 controls, 1:2 matched on age and week of gestation. Maternal blood samples were collected at 6-15 wk, and lipidomes were profiled by targeted ultra-HPLC-tandem MS. GDM was diagnosed by oral-glucose-tolerance test at 24-28 wk. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator is a regression analysis method that was used to select novel biomarkers. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the associations. Of 366 detected lipids, 10 were selected and found to be significantly associated with GDM independently of confounders: there were positive associations with phosphatidylinositol 40:6, alkylphosphatidylcholine 36:1, phosphatidylethanolamine plasmalogen 38:6, diacylglyceride 18:0/18:1, and alkylphosphatidylethanolamine 40:5 (adjusted ORs per 1 log-SD increment range: 1.34-2.86), whereas there were inverse associations with sphingomyelin 34:1, dihexosyl ceramide 24:0, mono hexosyl ceramide 18:0, dihexosyl ceramide 24:1, and phosphatidylcholine 40:7 (adjusted ORs range: 0.48-0.68). Addition of these novel lipids to the classical GDM prediction model resulted in a significant improvement in the C-statistic (discriminatory power of the model) to 0.801 (95% CI: 0.772, 0.829). For every 1-point increase in the lipid risk score of the 10 lipids, the OR of GDM was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.85). Mediation analysis suggested the associations between specific lipid species and GDM were partially explained by glycemic and insulin-related indicators. Specific plasma lipid biomarkers in early pregnancy were associated with GDM in Chinese women, and significantly improved the prediction for GDM.

An Unbalanced Monocyte Macrophage Polarization in the Bone Marrow Microenvironment of Patients with Poor Graft Function after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

BackgroundPoor graft function (PGF) remains a life-threatening complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), and the underlying mechanisms have not yet been elucidated. Considerable evidence from murine studies has demonstrated that effective hematopoiesis depends on the specific bone marrow (BM) microenvironment, where hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) reside. In this regard, we previously reported that PGF patients had impaired BM endosteal cells and endothelial progenitor cells, as well as dysregulated T cell responses in the BM microenvironment, which may be involved in the occurrence of PGF (BBMT 2013; BMT2016; Oncotarget 2016; BBMT 2016; Blood 2016; J Transl Med2017). Macrophage is one of the important components of BM immune microenvironment. Meanwhile, Murine studies suggest that macrophages regulate the retention of HSCs by regulating osteoblastic cell activity and nestin-expressing cells. Increasing evidence shows that BM resident macrophages are indispensable for HSCs function and BM erythroid output. However, little is known about the quantity and function of BM macrophages and whether the unbalanced BM macrophages directly interact with HSCs in PGF patients post allo-HSCT.AimsTo compare the number and function of BM macrophages between patients with PGF and GGF after allo-HSCT. Moreover, to investigate whether the unbalanced BM macrophages directly interact with HSCs in PGF patients.MethodsThis prospective nested case-control study enrolled 30 patients with PGF, 60 matched patients with good graft function (GGF), defined as persistent successful engraftment after allotransplant, and 30 healthy donors (HD). Standard monocyte subsets, defined by cluster of differentiation CD14 and CD16, were quantified by flow cytometry. In addition, based on the phenotype of polarized macrophages in vitro, classically activated inflammatory macrophage (M1:CD68+CCR2+) and alternatively activated anti-inflammatory macrophage (M2:CX3CR1+CD163+/CD206+) from BM samples were analyzed by flow cytometry. BM CD14+ monocytes were isolated from BM mononuclear cell (BMMNCs) and were cultured with 100 ng/ml recombinant human M-CSF for 10 days to obtain macrophages. The functions of BM derived macrophages were evaluated by migration assay and phagocytosis assay. CD34+ cells from healthy donors were co-cultured with BM derived macrophages from PGF patients, and the levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and apoptosis in CD34+ cells were analyzed by flow cytometry after 5 days co-culture.ResultsAlterations in standard monocyte subsets (classical, intermediate and non-classical) were found when comparing subjects among PGF, GGF and normal controls. In particular, elevated intermediate and non-classical monocyte subsets were observed in PGF patients when compared with those in GGF patients. Moreover, PGF patients displayed an imbalanced M1/M2 ratio compared with the GGF and normal controls, attributable to a reduction in M2 and an increase in M1. Dysfunctional BM derived macrophages, which were characterized by impaired proliferation, migration, phagocytosis and higher level of apoptosis, were revealed in patients with PGF. BM CD34+ cells from healthy donors were co-cultured respectively with BM derived macrophages from patients with PGF and normal controls. Apoptosis and intracellular levels of ROS were markedly increased in CD34+ bone marrow cells which were co-cultured with PGF patients' BM derived macrophages compared with normal controls.Summary/ConclusionIn summary, the current study demonstrated the abnormal number and impaired function of BM macrophages and unbalanced BM macrophages directly interact with HSCs in PGF patients. We speculate that reduction of anti-inflammatory M2 monocytes while increase of pro-inflammatory M1 monocytes in PGF patient BM have a negative impact on HSCs in BM microenvironment. Thus, our results indicate that unbalanced BM M1/M2 and dysfunctional BM macrophages may play an important role in the pathogenesis of PGF following allo-HSCT. Therefore, it would be of value to investigate the appropriate approach to balance the M1/M2 and enhance function of BM macrophages, which may be a promising therapeutic approach for PGF patients. DisclosuresNo relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Circulating fatty acids and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: prospective analyses in China

We aimed to examine prospective associations between circulating fatty acids in early pregnancy and incident gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) among Chinese pregnant women. Analyses were based on two prospective nested case-control studies conducted in western China (336 GDM cases and 672 matched controls) and central China (305 cases and 305 matched controls). Fasting plasma fatty acids in early pregnancy (gestational age at enrollment: 10.4 weeks(s.d., 2.0)) and 13.2 weeks (1.0), respectively) were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, and GDM was diagnosed based on the International Association of Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Groups criteria during 24-28 weeks of gestation. Multiple metabolic biomarkers (HOMA-IR (homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance), HbA1c, c-peptide, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, adiponectin, leptin, and blood lipids) were additionally measured among 672 non-GDM controls at enrollment. Higher levels of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) 14:0 (pooled odds ratio, 1.41 for each 1-s.d. increase; 95% CI: 1.25, 1.59) and 16:0 (1.19; 1.05, 1.35) were associated with higher odds of GDM. Higher levels of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) 18:2n-6 were strongly associated with lower odds of GDM (0.69; 0.60, 0.80). In non-GDM pregnant women, higher SFAs 14:0 and 16:0 but lower n-6 PUFA 18:2n-6 were generally correlated with unfavorable metabolic profiles. We documented adverse associations of 14:0 and 16:0 but a protective association of 18:2n-6 with GDM among Chinese pregnant women. Our findings highlight the distinct roles of specific fatty acids in the onset of GDM.

DNA Methylation in Peripheral Blood and Risk of Gastric Cancer: A Prospective Nested Case-control Study.

DNA methylation in peripheral blood is a potential biomarker of gastric cancer risk which could be used for early detection. We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Genomic DNA was prepared from blood samples collected a median of 12 years before diagnosis for cases (N = 168). Controls (N = 163) were matched to cases on sex, year of birth, country of birth, and blood sample type using incidence density sampling. Genome-wide DNA methylation was measured using the Infinium HumanMethylation450K Beadchip. Global measures of DNA methylation were defined as the median methylation M value, calculated for each of 13 CpG subsets representing genomic function, mean methylation and location, and reliability of measurement. Conditional logistic regression was conducted to assess associations between these global measures of methylation and gastric cancer risk, adjusting for Helicobacter pylori and other potential confounders. We tested nonlinear associations using quintiles of the global measure distribution. A genome-wide association study of DNA methylation and gastric cancer risk was also conducted (N = 484,989 CpGs) using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Differentially methylated regions (DMR) were investigated using the R package DMRcate We found no evidence of associations with gastric cancer risk for individual CpGs or DMRs (P > 7.6 × 10-6). No evidence of association was observed with global measures of methylation (OR 1.07 per SD of overall median methylation; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.44; P = 0.65). We found no evidence that blood DNA methylation is prospectively associated with gastric cancer risk.Prevention Relevance: We studied DNA methylation in blood to try and predict who was at risk of gastric cancer before symptoms developed, by which stage survival is poor. We did not find any such markers, but the importance of early diagnosis in gastric cancer remains, and the search for markers continues.

Association between benzodiazepine use and development of dementia

ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between use of benzodiazepines and incident dementia. MethodsAnalytical prospective nested case-control study for which the Spanish database for pharmacoepidemiological research in primary care (BIFAP) of the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices (AEMPS) was used. A total of 15,212 subjects diagnosed with dementia of the Alzheimer type and 62,397 controls were identified. Exposure was retrieved retrospectively with a 3-year lag time before the index date. Adjusted odd ratios (OR) were calculated. ResultsBenzodiazepines use increased the risk of suffering Alzheimer's disease (OR=1.05, 95% CI, 1.01–1.10). No statistical differences were shown between short-acting and long-acting drugs. The risk is more evident with longer exposure times. ConclusionsThere seems to be a weak association between benzodiazepine use and the development of dementia, the risk increases with greater exposure.

DNA methylation ageing clocks and pancreatic cancer risk: pooled analysis of three prospective nested case-control studies

ABSTRACT DNA methylation (DNAm) age may reflect age-related variations in biological changes and abnormalities related to ageing. DNAm age acceleration measures have been associated with a number of cancers, but to our knowledge, have not been examined in relation to pancreatic cancer risk or survival. DNAm levels in leukocytes of prediagnostic blood samples of 393 pancreatic cancer cases and 431 matched controls, pooled from three large prospective cohort studies, were used to estimate DNAm age, epigenetic age acceleration (AA), and intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAA) metrics. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the relationship between the various AA and IEAA metrics and pancreatic cancer risk and survival, respectively. The results showed that pancreatic cancer risk was significantly increased across all IEAA metrics, ranging from 83% to 95% increased risk when comparing the third and highest quartiles to the lowest quartile of IEAA. Consistent with these findings, the results from multivariate spline regression analyses showed non-linear relationships between all three IEAA metrics and pancreatic cancer risk with apparent threshold effect including two turning points at minimal and at maximal risks, respectively. There is no evidence of a significant association between pancreatic cancer survival and any of the epigenetic AA or IEAA metrics. Our results indicate DNAm age acceleration, measured in blood prior to cancer diagnosis, is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer in a complex nonlinear, dose–response manner. Epigenetic IEAA metrics may be a useful addition to current methods for pancreatic cancer risk prediction.

Cystatin C is a potential predictor of unfavorable outcomes for cerebral ischemia with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator treatment: A multicenter prospective nested case–control study

The aim of this study was to explore whether cystatin C (CysC) could be used as a potential predictor of clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients treated with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV-tPA). We performed an observational study including a retrospective analysis of data from 125 AIS patients with intravenous thrombolysis. General linear models were applied to compare CysC levels between groups with different outcomes; logistic regression analysis and receiver-operating characteristic curves were adopted to identify the association between CysC and the therapeutic effects. Compared with the "good and sustained benefit" (GSB) outcome group (defined as ≥4-point reduction in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale or a score of 0-1 at 24h and 7days) and the "good functional outcome" (GFO) group (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2 at 90days), serum CysC baseline levels were increased in the non-GSB and non-GFO groups. Logistic regression analysis found that CysC was an independent negative prognostic factor for GSB (odds ratio[OR]0.010; p=0.005) and GFO (OR 0.011; p=0.021) after adjustment for potential influencing factors. Receiver-operating characteristic curves showed the CysC-involved combined models provided credible efficacy for predicting post-90-day favorable clinical outcome (area under the curve0.86; p<0.001). Elevated serum CysC is independently associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes after IV-tPA therapy in AIS. Our findings provide new insights into discovering potential mediators for neuropathological process or treatment in stroke.

Red blood cell membrane trans fatty acid levels and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a prospective nested case–control study

Trans fatty acid (TFA) intake persists in much of the world, posing ongoing threats to public health that warrant further elucidation. Published evidence suggests a positive association of self-reported TFA intake with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk. To confirm those reports, we conducted a prospective study of prediagnosis RBC membrane TFA levels and risk of NHL and common NHL histologic subtypes. We conducted a nested case-control study in Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study participants with archived RBC specimens and no history of cancer at blood draw (1989-1090 and 1994-1995, respectively). We confirmed 583 incident NHL cases (332 women and 251 men) and individually matched 583 controls on cohort (sex), age, race, and blood draw date/time. We analyzed RBC membrane TFA using GLC (in 2013-2014) and expressed individual TFA levels as a percentage of total fatty acids. We used unconditional logistic regression adjusted for the matching factors to estimate ORs and 95% CIs for overall NHL risk per 1 SD increase in TFA level and assessed histologic subtype-specific associations with multivariable polytomous logistic regression. Total and individual TFA levels were not associated with risk of all NHL or most subtypes. We observed a positive association of total TFA levels with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) risk [n=98 cases; OR (95% CI) per 1 SD increase: 1.30 (1.05, 1.61); P=0.015], driven by trans 18:1n-9(ω-9)/elaidic acid [OR (95% CI): 1.34 (1.08, 1.66); P=0.007], trans 18:1n-7/vaccenic acid [OR (95% CI): 1.28 (1.04, 1.58); P=0.023], and trans 18:2n-6t,t [OR (95% CI): 1.26 (1.01, 1.57); P=0.037]. Our findings extended evidence for TFA intake and DLBCL risk but not for other NHL subtypes. Reduced TFA consumption through dietary choices or health policy measures may support prevention of DLBCL, an aggressive NHL subtype.

M2 Macrophages, but Not M1 Macrophages, Support Megakaryopoiesis Via up-Regulating PI3K-AKT Pathway

Background Megakaryopoiesis and platelets production intensely depend on bone marrow(BM) microenvironment. Our previous studies found that impaired BM microenvironment and dysfunctional megakaryopoiesis are responsible for the occurrence of prolonged isolated thrombocytopenia (PT), which is defined as the engraftment of all peripheral blood cell lines other than a platelet count less than 20×109/L or a dependence on platelet transfusions for more than 60 days following allo-HSCT(BBMT 2014; BBMT 2017; Brit J Haematol 2018; Am J Hematol 2018). As an important component of the BM microenvironment, macrophages (MՓs) are heterogeneous and polarized into classically activated (M1) MՓs and alternatively activated (M2) MՓs with distinct phenotypes and function. Although inconsistent effect of BM MՓs was reported on megakaryopoiesis, the functional role of M1 and M2 MՓs and related pathway in regulating megakaryopoiesis and its effect on PT patients post-allotransplant remain to be elucidated. Aims To address the roles of M1 MФs and M2 MФs in regulating megakaryopoiesis as well as PI3K-AKT pathway in the process. Moreover, polarization status and the function of BM MФs in regulating megakaryopoiesis were evaluated in PT patients. Methods This prospective nested case-control study enrolled 12 patients with PT, 24 matched patients with good graft function (GGF), defined as persistent successful engraftment after allotransplant, and 12 healthy donors (HD). BM standard monocyte subsets and M1/M2 MՓs polarization state were analyzed by flow cytometry. To generate M1 and M2 MՓs, both primary BM MՓs and THP1 cell lines were treated with LPS and IFN-γ or with IL-4 and IL-13. The functions of BM MՓs were evaluated by migration, phagocytosis and cytokine secretion assay. The sorted CD34+ cells from HD were co-cultured with BM MՓs from PT and GGF patients or M1 and M2 MՓs respectively for megakaryopoiesis. The quantification of the megakaryocytes(MKs), MKs apoptosis, MKs polyploidy distribution, colony-forming unit MK(CFU-MK) efficiency, and platelet production were analyzed in the coculture system. To understand the underlying mechanism of MՓs polarization in regulating MKs, RNA-seq analyses were performed in BM MՓs from PT and GGF patients. In addition, M1 and M2 MՓs were treated with the chemical inhibitors and lentivirus for PI3K-AKT pathway. Results Elevated intermediate and non-classical monocyte subsets were found in PT patients when compared with those in GGF patients. Moreover, PT patients displayed increased M1 and reduced M2 MՓs, resulting an unbalanced M1/M2 polarization, compared with GGF and HD. BM MՓs from PT patients, with high TNF-α levels and low TGF-β levels, showed decreased megakaryopoiesis-supporting ability. No significant differences in migration and phagocytosis function of MՓs among the three groups. RNA sequencing of BM MՓs showed down-regulated PI3K-AKT pathway in MՓs of PT patients compared with GGF. Consistently, the phosphorylation levels of AKT decreased significantly in MՓs of PT patients, suggesting that PI3K-AKT pathway may functionally regulate megakaryopoiesis-supporting ability of MՓs. Subsequently, BM-M2 and THP1-M2 showed superior effect on megakaryopoiesis-supporting ability compared with BM-M1 and THP1-M1. Specifically, the BM CD34+ cells cocultured with M2 MՓs demonstrated significant increased percentages of MKs and MK polyploidy, CFU-MK efficiency, and platelet count compared with those cocultured with M1 MՓs. Preventing PI3K-AKT pathway by PI3K inhibitor or Akt inhibitor significantly reduced the megakaryopoiesis-supporting ability of M2 MՓs. Moreover, knockdown of AKT1 induced the impairment of megakaryopoiesis-supporting ability via suppressing M2 MՓs polarization, which could be attenuated by AKT1 overexpression complementarily. Summary/Conclusion The current study demonstrated the polarization status of MՓs modulates their ability to support megakaryopoiesis. M2 MՓs, but not M1 MՓs, support megakaryopoiesis via up-regulating PI3K-AKT pathway. Defective M2 MՓs polarization via down-regulating PI3K-AKT pathway may be responsible for the pathogenesis of PT post-allotransplant, which provides a promising therapeutic target for PT patients. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Independent and Joint Associations between Serum Calcium, 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D, and the Risk of Primary Liver Cancer: A Prospective Nested Case–Control Study

Accumulating evidence has shown that serum calcium and vitamin D may be associated with or influence various cancer risks. However, no prospective studies have evaluated the independent and joint associations between prediagnostic levels of serum calcium and vitamin D and future risk of incident primary liver cancer. We used a nested case-control design to evaluate subjects over 22 years of follow-up. Serum calcium, 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D], and three markers of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus were measured in baseline serum from 226 incident primary liver cancer cases and 1,061 matched controls. We calculated ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression to estimate the associations between calcium, 25(OH)D, and primary liver cancer risk. Multivariable adjusted models showed that subjects with both low (ORLow/Medium = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.01-2.17) or high (ORHigh/Medium = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.34-2.76) calcium had an increased primary liver cancer risk, while those with high 25(OH)D had a decreased risk of primary liver cancer (ORHigh/Medium = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.35-0.82). In joint analyses, when compared with subjects with medium calcium and 25(OH)D, subjects with high calcium and medium 25(OH)D had elevated odds of developing primary liver cancer (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.17-3.05); those with medium calcium and high 25(OH)D had reduced odds of developing primary liver cancer (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.17-0.67); and subjects in other classifications of calcium and serum 25(OH)D levels had no change in the odds of developing primary liver cancer (all P > 0.05). In a nutrient-deficient population, we found that serum calcium and serum 25(OH)D could potentially be modifiable risk or protective factors. Our findings provide potential targets for primary liver cancer prevention and control.