Proportional Regression Models Research Articles

Prediction of Ischemic Stroke Recurrence Based on COX Proportional Risk Regression Model and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Patient Intensive Care Interventions.

With the continuous improvement of medical technology and the aging of the population, the death rate of stroke is gradually decreasing, but the recurrence rate is still high, and the number of recurrences is increasing, resulting in disability and other symptoms, which brings great burden and distress to patients and their families. As the number of strokes increases, neurological impairment becomes more and more severe, affecting patients' ability to live, socialize, and work, and seriously reducing their quality of life. Clustered care is a combination of evidence-based linked interventions and a multidisciplinary team providing the best possible care through evidence-based research and highly operational practice, and it can improve outcomes for ischemic stroke patients more than implementation alone. This paper presents a Cox proportional risk regression-based model, using it to build the most used semi-parametric model for multifactorial survival analysis, due to its advantages of both parametric and nonparametric models, and to analyze the factors influencing survival time in study subjects with incomplete data. The proposed strategy has been found to be useful in predicting ischemic stroke recurrence and cluster care interventions for patients.

The association of social and demographic factors on the time interval between a suspected diagnosis of cancer, diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes in a lung cancer patient population.

e18598 Background: Delays in lung cancer (LC) diagnosis and treatment adversely affect patient outcomes. Prior studies report mixed results on the association between delays in diagnosis and various demographic factors. Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted utilizing a randomly selected subset of LC patients treated at the IU Simon Comprehensive Cancer Center between 1/1/18 and 12/31/20. Chart search identified the dates of first suspected cancer finding (SCF; imaging or high-risk presentation), diagnosis, first treating physician contact, and treatment initiation. Patient characteristics (sex, age, race, marital status, insurance status/type, employment status, smoking status, LC stage, LC type) and healthcare utilization (setting of SCF, modality used to discover SCF) were also collected. Asymptomatic patients with SCF at routine screening were excluded. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models were utilized with significance defined as p < 0.05. Results: Patient characteristics (n = 203): white 86.7%; ever smokers 86.0%; Medicare 61.3%; NSCLC 87.7%; stage IV 44.3%. SCF was primarily identified in an ambulatory setting (57.4%) by CT imaging (62.1%). Median time from SCF to diagnosis, treating physician contact, and treatment were 24d (IQR: 8-67), 24.5d (IQR: 9-54), and 57d (IQR: 28-98), respectively. Median time from diagnosis to treatment was 22d (IQR: 7-41). Time from SCF to LC care was significantly associated with cancer type (median times - diagnosis: NSCLC = 27d, SCLC = 9d, p = 0.001; treating physician contact: NSCLC = 27d, SCLC = 6d, p = 0.002; treatment: NSCLC = 66.5d, SCLC = 23d, p < 0.001), stage (median times - diagnosis: stage I = 52d, stage IV = 9d, p < 0.001; treating physician contact: stage I = 32.5d, stage IV = 13.5d, p = 0.008; treatment: stage I = 97d, stage IV = 23d, p < 0.001), and setting of SCF (median times - diagnosis: ambulatory = 30d, emergency = 7d, p < 0.001; treating physician contact: ambulatory = 31d, emergency = 9d, p < 0.001; treatment: ambulatory = 74.5d, emergency = 28d, p < 0.001). Risk of delays were highest among those with Stage I NSCLC and when SCF occurred in the ambulatory setting. Adjusted by cancer types and modality, patients presenting to the ER were 2.15 times more likely to be diagnosed with stage IV disease than those presenting in the ambulatory setting (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Streamlined transitions of care are needed in the ambulatory setting to reduce delays in LC diagnosis and treatment to optimize patient outcomes. The extended delays experienced by early vs late-stage LC patients may be explained by access to care. However, no demographic factors (insurance, age, race) were significantly associated with delays in this dataset. Further studies are needed to assess the timeliness of cancer diagnosis and treatment in large, diverse populations.

Variation in survival rates among patients with angiosarcoma based on demographic and socioeconomic factors in academic versus non-academic settings: An NCDB analysis.

e23537 Background: Angiosarcomas are malignancies of endothelial-cell origin representing 2% of soft-tissue sarcomas. Although the number of cases of angiosarcoma continues to rise, the prognosis is generally poor and treatment options remain limited. Due to the rarity of angiosarcoma and limited available literature, this study is intended to analyze the impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on patients’ survival rates in academic versus non-academic settings. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 5,544 patients diagnosed with angiosarcoma from the National Cancer Database (NCDB) between 2004-2017. Patients were stratified by facility type and compared via Kaplan-Meier analysis, log-rank test, chi-square analyses, and ANOVA. Additionally, a cox proportional hazards multivariate regression model was used. The following demographic factors were examined: age, sex, reported race and ethnicity, mean survival rates utilizing the Charlson Comorbidity Index, facility type where patients received treatments, and treatment modalities. Furthermore, the assumption of proportionality was tested for each variable. Data was analyzed using Statistical Analysis Software (SAS). Results: Higher rates of death were seen in those of male sex, African American race, increased age (> 72), and increasing Charlson-Deyo scores. There was an increased risk of death for older African American males with non-zero Charlson-Deyo scores. Additionally, patients from areas of increased income had decreased rates of death. After adjusting for most variables, patients who were treated at academic facilities had an 8.5% decreased risk of death compared with patients treated at non-academic facilities (95% CI: 1.5% to 15.0%; P = 0.019). Conclusions: Our study results indicate that certain demographic and socioeconomic factors may be linked to poorer survival outcomes in patients with angiosarcoma. Further investigation of socioeconomic barriers and prognostic factors for angiosarcoma may help to identify populations at risk for poor treatment outcomes and guide disease management.

Soluble TREM2 is associated with death and cardiovascular events after acute ischemic stroke: an observational study from CATIS

BackgroundSoluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), which reflects microglia activation, has been reported closely associated with neuronal injury and neuroinflammation. We aimed to prospectively investigate the associations between plasma sTREM2 and clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.MethodsStudy participants were from the China Antihypertensive Trial in Acute Ischemic Stroke, plasma sTREM2 levels in the acute phase of AIS were measured in 3285 participants. The study outcomes were death, cardiovascular events and severe disability at 1 year after AIS. Cox proportional hazards models or logistic regression models were performed to examine the associations of plasma sTREM2 and clinical outcomes.ResultsAfter 1-year follow-up, 288 participants (8.8%) experienced cardiovascular events or died. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios or odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest quartile of sTREM2 were 1.57 (1.11–2.21) for the composite outcome of death and cardiovascular events, 1.68 (1.09–2.60) for death, and 1.53 (1.08–2.18) for death or severe disability compared to the lowest quartile. Moreover, incorporation sTREM2 into traditional risk factors model significantly improved risk prediction of the composite outcome of death and cardiovascular events as evidenced by net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement (all p values < 0.05). There were joint effects of sTREM2 and galectin-3 on death and cardiovascular events. Participants with simultaneous elevation of sTREM2 and galectin-3 levels had the highest risk of the composite outcome of death and cardiovascular events.ConclusionsElevated sTREM2 levels were independently associated with increased risks of death and cardiovascular events after AIS.

Caries inhibition with CO2-laser during orthodontic treatment: a study protocol for a randomized split-mouth controlled clinical trial

IntroductionWhite spot lesions associated with orthodontic treatment are a common problem. Recent studies reported increased resistance to acid demineralization of enamel after sub-ablative CO2-laser irradiation in a combination with fluoride application. The aim of the study is to assess the efficacy of CO2-laser in combination with a fluoride varnish in the prevention, severity, and extent of white spot lesions during orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances.Methods and analysisThis is a protocol for a randomized, split-mouth controlled, clinical trial. The participants will be children aged 12–18 years at high caries risk, requiring fixed orthodontic treatment. The vestibular surfaces of maxillary anterior teeth of eligible patients will be exposed to CO2-laser irradiation in combination with fluoride therapy and fluoride therapy alone followed by bonding of orthodontic brackets. The patients will be recalled 6 and 12 months post-irradiation. Outcome measures will be visual examination with International Caries Detection and Assessment System criteria and SoproLife fluorescence. Data will be analyzed by Student’s t test for paired samples and proportional odds logistic regression model, p<0.05.Ethics and disseminationThe study protocol has been approved by the Committee for Scientific Research Ethics, Medical University-Plovdiv, Bulgaria (Reference number P-605/27.03.2020, Protocol of approval No. 2/01.04.2021) and registered on a publicly accessible database. This research received institutional funding from the Medical University–Plovdiv, Bulgaria. The results will be presented through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT04903275. Registered on June 2021.

Abstract 44: Safety Of Tenecteplase And Alteplase In Tandem Lesion Stroke: A Pooled Analysis Of The Extend-IA TNK Trials

Introduction: The efficacy of tenecteplase (TNK) in patients with tandem lesions (TL) in the anterior circulation is unknown. The longer half-life of TNK could potentially lead to increased hemorrhage, especially in patients who require stenting of the extracranial internal carotid artery (eICA) and subsequent antiplatelet therapy. We assessed the efficacy and safety of TNK in a pooled analysis of the EXTEND-IA TNK trials. Methods: We compared the treatment effect of TNK (pooled analysis of 0.25 and 0.40mg/kg dosing) with alteplase (tPA), stratifying for TL presence. A TL was defined as a combination of eICA pathology (ipsilateral stenosis &gt;70% or occlusion) and intracranial LVO. Outcomes evaluated include 90-day mRS, intracranial reperfusion at initial angiographic assessment, mortality, ICH (symptomatic [sICH] and parenchymal hematoma [PH]). Treatment effect was adjusted for baseline NIHSS, age, and time from symptom onset to puncture via mixed effects proportional odds and logistic regression models. Results: Of 483 patients with an anterior circulation occlusion, 71/483 (15%) patients had a TL and 43/71 (61%) patients required eICA stenting. In TL patients, reperfusion at initial angiographic assessment was observed in 11/56 (20%) of patients treated with TNK vs. 1/15 (7%) patients treated with tPA (aOR:3.71; 95% CI:0.42-32.75). sICH was observed in 4/71(6%) TL vs 7/412 (2%) nonTL patients (p=0.04). Among TL patients, sICH occurred in 4/56 (7%) patients treated with TNK vs 0/15 (0%) tPA treated patients (p=0.57); sICH occurred in 2/40 (5%) of the 0.25mg/kg TNK group and 2/16 (12.5%) of the 0.40mg/kg TNK group. PH was observed in 6/56 (11%) patients treated with TNK vs 0/15 (0%) tPA treated patients (p=0.33). 90-day mRS (TNK median 2 vs. tPA median 4, acOR:1.21; 95% CI:0.42-3.48), mortality (TNK: 5 [9%] vs. tPA: 3 [20%], aOR:0.45; 95% CI:0.08-2.50), and eICA stenting (TNK: 35 [64%] vs. tPA: 8 [57%], p=0.65) rates did not differ between the two treatment groups. Conclusions: Although patients with TL in the anterior circulation were at higher risk of hemorrhagic complications, these did not significantly differ between the TNK and tPA groups. A numeric increase in bleeding with TNK was not accompanied by an increase in mortality or worse functional outcome.

Time to diagnosis and treatment for breast cancer in public and private health services.

To analyze the time to diagnosis and treatment for breast cancer and the associated factors, according to the type of care (public vs. private). Retrospective cohort study with 477 women diagnosed with breast cancer between 2014 and 2016. Data were collected in an oncology service in a municipality in Minas Gerais, in the 2018-2019 period. Analyzes were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox's proportional regression model. The median time to diagnosis was 70 days, being shorter for women who discovered the disease through screening tests and who were diagnosed in early stages of the disease. The median time for treatment was 32 days, which was shorter for women assisted by private health service, with a high level of education and who were diagnosed in early stages. Private care and facilitators of access to breast cancer care were associated with shorter waiting times.

282. Risk Factors for Mortality in Severe COVID-19 Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Single-Center Study in Saudi Arabia

BackgroundThe first case of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was reported in March 2020. This study aims to describe the overall mortality in the ICU during the COVID-19 pandemic and to determine independent risk factors for overall survival & 29 days mortality.MethodsThis is a retrospective single-center study; data for adult patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 between 1st March 2020 to 31st December 2020 were extracted and reviewed. Overall survival was described using Kaplan-Meier curves with reporting of median overall survival and 29 days survival estimates. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards model and multivariate logistic regression model.Figure 1. Study flow chart Table 1. Demographic characteristics categorized by Gender ResultsEligible subjects were 209 (Figure 1) and subjects demographics are summarized in (Table1). Observed death events were 82 (39.2% of the total cohort), 61% of deaths reached at 2 weeks of ICU stay (n.= 50), median overall survival (OS) was reached at day 23, as shown in (Figure 2). The multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis (Figure 3) showed elevated SOFA score [aHR= 1.10, P < 0.001] and Vasopressors [aHR= 3.23, P= 0.002] as independent risk factors for overall ICU mortality. Independent protective factors were: Systemic corticosteroids use (P= 0.019), Insulin use (P= 0.026) and Liposomal Amphotericin B (LAMB) use (P= 0.019). For mortality at day 29, the multivariate logistic regression model (Figure. 4) showed elevated SOFA score (P= 0.005), any need for ventilation escalation after ICU admission (P= 0.014), Ribavirin use (P=0.016) and Vasopressors use ( P< 0.001) as independent risk factors. Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) use was a protective factor (P=0.025).Figure 2. Overall Survival (OS) for patients admitted to the ICU due to COVID-19 - Kaplan Meier (KM) Figure 3. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model for factors associated with overall mortality in patients admitted to the ICU due to COVID-19 Figure 4. Multivariate logistic regression model for factors associated with 29 days mortality in patients admitted to the ICU due to COVID-19 ConclusionSOFA score and vasopressors are independent predictors for overall survival and 29-day mortality in the ICU. The need for ventilation escalation after ICU admission appeared to lead to poor prognosis in regard to 29-day mortality only. Systemic corticosteroids are lifesaving, further studies are required to confirm the observed clinical benefits with insulin, LAMB and ACEi use in the ICU and to investigate any hazardous impact of ribavirin on COVID-19 outcomes.Study limitationsResidual confounding of other measured and/or unobserved factors cannot be ruled out.Disclosures Sherif Khattab, BPharm, Gilead Sciences (Employee, Shareholder) Mohamed Bakry, MBBCh, Gilead Sciences (Employee)Roche Pharma (Employee)

Discharge after hip fracture surgery in relation to mobilisation timing by patient characteristics: linked secondary analysis of the UK National Hip Fracture Database

BackgroundEarly mobilisation leads to a two-fold increase in the adjusted odds of discharge by 30-days compared to late mobilisation. Whether this association varies by patient characteristics identified as reasons for delayed mobilisation is unknown.MethodsAudit data was linked to hospitalisation records for 133,319 patients 60 years or older surgically treated for hip fracture in England or Wales between 2014 and 2016. Adjusted proportional odds regression models tested whether the cumulative incidences of discharge differed between those mobilised early and those mobilised late for subgroups defined by dementia, delirium, hypotension, prefracture ambulation, and prefracture residence, accounting for the competing risk of death.ResultsOverall, 34,253 patients presented with dementia, 9818 with delirium, and 10,123 with hypotension. Prefracture, 100,983 were ambulant outdoors, 30,834 were ambulant indoors only, 107,144 were admitted from home, and 23,588 from residential care. 1502 had incomplete data for ambulation and 2587 for prefracture residence. 10, 8, 8, 12, and 12% fewer patients with dementia, delirium, hypotension, ambulant indoors only prefracture, or admitted from residential care mobilised early when compared to those who presented without dementia, delirium, hypotension, with outdoor ambulation prefracture, or admitted from home. The adjusted odds ratios of discharge by 30-days postoperatively among those who mobilised early compared with those who mobilised late were 1.71 (95% CI 1.62–1.81) for those with dementia, 2.06 (95% CI 1.98–2.15) without dementia, 1.56 (95% CI 1.41–1.73) with delirium, 2.00 (95% CI 1.93–2.07) without delirium, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.66–2.02) with hypotension, 1.95 (95% CI, 1.89–2.02) without hypotension, 2.00 (95% CI 1.92–2.08) with outdoor ambulation prefracture, 1.80 (95% CI 1.70–1.91) with indoor ambulation only prefracture, 2.30 (95% CI 2.19–2.41) admitted from home, and 1.64 (95% CI 1.51–1.77) admitted from residential care, accounting for the competing risk of death.ConclusionIrrespective of dementia, delirium, hypotension, prefracture ambulation or residence, early compared to late mobilisation increased the likelihood of hospital discharge by 30-days postoperatively. However, fewer patients with dementia, delirium, or hypotension, poorer prefracture ambulation, or from residential care mobilised early. There is a need reduce this care gap by ensuring sufficient resource to enable all patients to benefit from early mobilisation.

Type 2 Myocardial Infarction in Young Adults: Insights From the National Readmission Database.

IntroductionType 2 myocardial infarction (T2MI) is an ischemic myocardial injury in the context of oxygen supply/demand mismatch in the absence of a primary coronary event. T2MI is often diagnosed in patients with a higher risk of morbidity and mortality. T2MI in young adults is poorly understood due to limited available data.MethodsThe Nationwide Readmission Database 2017-2018 was queried for admission with T2MI diagnosis in young adults (age ≤ 45 years). Index admissions with T2MI were identified. Other types of myocardial infarction and observations with missing data were excluded. December admissions were excluded to allow the 30-day follow-up. Cox proportional hazard multivariate regression model was used to determine predictors of readmissions. All P-values were two-sided, with 0.05 as the threshold for statistical significance.ResultsA total of 11,750 patients with a secondary diagnosis of T2MI were admitted between October 2017 and November 2018. The main primary etiologies of index admission were sepsis (14%) followed by hypertensive heart disease with heart failure (11%) and hypertensive emergency (7%), while main etiologies of readmission were hypertensive heart disease with heart failure (12%) followed by sepsis (9%) and acute kidney injury (3%). Valvular heart disease, chronic pulmonary disease, drug abuse, and depression were amongst the predictors of all-cause readmission.ConclusionWe identified primary etiologies of admission and readmission, and predictors of readmissions in young adults presenting with T2MI. Further studies are needed to guide the management of T2MI in this age group.

The effects of antifungal therapy on the recurrence of aspergillus infection after pulmonary aspergilloma resection: a study protocol for a single-center, prospective, non-blind, randomized, 24-month, parallel group study

BackgroundIn recent years, the incidence of pulmonary aspergilloma has increased. The harm of aspergilloma is life-threatening massive hemoptysis, and the conventional treatment is surgical treatment. However, whether the antifungal treatment after surgery is required and the course of treatment before and after surgery are still unclear.MethodsIn this study, patients with pulmonary aspergilloma confirmed pathologically after surgery will be selected as subjects to conduct a single-center, randomized, parallel grouping, prospective, 2-year clinical study. Through regular visits, the recurrence of aspergillus infection, quality of life, lung function indicators, safety of antifungal therapy and other indicators were recorded to evaluate the recurrence risk of aspergillus infection and safety of antifungal agents. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of antifungal therapy on aspergillus infection recurrence after aspergillus bulbectomy. Cox multiple regression model was used for optimal model fitting, and regression coefficient (β), relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval of RR were calculated.DiscussionThe study will explore whether antifungal therapy could improve the quality of life, reduce the recurrence of aspergillus infection, and ultimately improve the prognosis of patients with aspergilloma. The study results will provide high-quality evidence-based medical evidence for the formulation, revision and optimization of international and domestic clinical guidelines and expert consensus on chronic aspergillus lung disease, effectively improve the clinical treatment effect of aspergilloma, and form the latest concept of diagnosis and treatment of aspergilloma.Trial registration: The trial was registered on the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry website (https://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=33231). Registration number: ChiCTR1800019990.

Trends and socioeconomic inequalities in self-rated health in Japan, 1986\u20132016

IntroductionDespite having very high life expectancy, Japan has relatively poor self-rated health, compared to other high-income countries. We studied trends and socioeconomic inequalities in self-rated health in Japan using nationally representative data.MethodsThe Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions was analyzed, every 3 years (n ≈ 0.6–0.8 million/year) from 1986 to 2016. Whereas previous studies dichotomized self-rated health as an outcome, we used four categories: very good, good, fair, and bad/very bad. Proportional odds ordinal logistic regression models are used, with ordinal scale self-rated health as an outcome, and age category, survey year and occupational class or educational level as independent variables.ResultsIn 2016, the age-adjusted percentages for self-rated health categorized as very good, good, fair, and bad/very bad, were 24.0, 17.1, 48.7, and 10.2% among working-age men, and 21.6, 17.5, 49.4, and 11.5% among working-age women, respectively. With 1986 as the reference year, the odds ratios (ORs) of less good self-rated health were lowest in 1995 (0.69; 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI]: 0.66–0.71 of working-age men), and highest in 2010 (1.23 [95% CI: 1.19–1.27]). The ORs of male, lower non-manual workers (compared to upper non-manual) increased from 1.12 (95% CI: 1.07–1.17) in 2010 to 1.20 (95% CI: 1.15–1.26) in 2016. Between 2010 and 2016, the ORs of working-age men with middle and low levels of education (compared to a high level of education) increased from 1.22 (95% CI: 1.18–1.27) to 1.34 (95% CI: 1.29–1.38), and from 1.47 (95% CI: 1.39–1.56) to 1.75 (95% CI: 1.63–1.88), respectively. The ORs of working-age women with middle and low levels of education also increased from 1.22 (95% CI: 1.17–1.28) to 1.32 (95% CI: 1.26–1.37), and from 1.74 (95% CI: 1.61–1.88) to 2.03 (95% CI: 1.87–2.21) during the same period.ConclusionJapan has the unique feature that approximately 50% of the survey respondents rated their self-rated health as fair, but with important variations over time and between socioeconomic groups. In-depth studies of the role of socioeconomic conditions may shed light on the reasons for the high prevalence of poor self-rated health in Japan.

Does patent foramen ovale presence procure favourable outcomes in patients with severe rheumatic mitral stenosis?

Mitral stenosis (MS) is tolerated for an extended period in patients with atrial septal defect (ASD) known as Lutembacher syndrome due to depressurizing effect. In a similar way, patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) may have clinical benefits in severe MS. We aim to evaluate the clinical effects of PFO in rheumatic MS. Transthoracic and transesophageal echocardiography records of the patients with symptomatic severe MS were screened for the period between 2008 and 2019 in a single center. 320 symptomatic patients with severe MS were included and presence of PFO recorded. Left atrial appendix (LAA) thrombotic status was defined as clear, spontaneous echo contrast, and thrombus. Two different statistical models were used to determine the predictors of either smallest (mitral valve area) MVA at symptomatic presentation or more thrombogenic LAA. 34 patients had PFO. Multivariable ordinary least square model demonstrated that increase in systolic pulmonary arterial pressure, ejection fraction and presence of PFO were associated with smaller MVA on presentation. Multivariable proportional odds logistic regression model demonstrated that advanced age, increased left atrial diameter, absence of PFO were associated with more thrombotic status whereas larger MVA was associated with decreased thrombotic status in LAA. Presence of PFO in severe MS results in two clinical benefits as (i) being asymptomatic with smaller MVA and (ii) having less LAA thrombosis probably caused by depressurizing effect on the left atrial pressure. Our study could serve as an example for patient groups with expected symptomatic benefits from left atrium pressure offloading interventions.

Vital exhaustion and risk of myocardial infarction in male population aged 25- 64 years in Russia/Siberia. Epidemiological program WHO Monica-psychosocial

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Purpose To determine the effect of vital exhaustions (VE) on risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in male population aged 25-64 years in Russia/Siberia. Methods Within the framework of WHO program MONICA-psychosocial a representative sample of men 25-64 years was examined in 1994 year in Novosibirsk. Total sample of 657 males were measured for VE symptoms at baseline with the use of the MONICA - psychosocial Interview - Vital Exhaustion scale. The incidence of new-onset MI cases was revealed over 14-years of follow-up in frame budgetary issue # AAAA-A17-117112850280-2. Cox - proportional regression model was used for an estimation of hazard ratio (HR). Results Prevalence of VE in cohort of men with AH was 73.7%. 58% men had high level of VE and 15.7% - an average level of VE. The risk MI incidence over the first 5 years of follow-up in a group with VE was 2.7-fold higher compare o those without VE. Within 10 years HR = 2.25, within 14 years HR = 2,1 for males with VE (p for all &amp;lt;0.05). In the multivariate Cox regression model after controlling for social factors (education, occupation, marital status) and age, the influence of vital exhaustion on MI risk decreased but remained statistically significant HR = 1.16 (p &amp;lt;0.05). Marital status as divorced and primary degree (elementary school) increased risk of MI more significantly in men with VE. Conclusions Vital exhaustion is a predictor of higher risk of MI in middle-age men. Level of MI risk influenced by social gradient.

Abstract P440: Inpatient Blood Pressure Variability is Associated With Mortality and Poor Functional Outcome in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Introduction: Although elevated blood pressure (BP) is an established risk factor for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the impact of acute BP fluctuations on ICH outcomes remains unclear. In this study, we sought to investigate the effect of acute BP variability (BPV) on mortality and functional outcome in ICH survivors. Methods: Subjects were consecutive ICH patients ≥ 18 years with available inpatient BP data, who survived hospitalization. Four measures of systolic BPV were calculated: standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CoV), average real variability (ARV), and successive variation (SV). Our outcomes were (1) death and (2) poor functional outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Score (mRS) of 3-6 in a period between 60-120 days after discharge. We assessed the effect of hyperacute (ICH event-72 hours) and acute/subacute (72 hours-discharge) BPV on outcomes. We constructed Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models to investigate the associations of BPV (per 10 mmHg increase) with mortality and poor functional outcome, respectively, after adjustment for potential confounders. Results: We included 345 patients, 120 of whom had available mRS data. 151 (43.8%) patients were female and 280 (81.2%) were white; mean age was 71 (±13) years. SBP ARV and SBP SV were the strongest predictors of mortality (HR 2.53-2.91 per 10 mmHg increase), while SBP SD, CoV, and SV were the strongest predictors of poor functional outcome (OR 2.89-5.14 per 10 mmHg increase) (Table) . These associations remained significant when analyzing both hyperacute as well as acute/subacute BPV. Compared to hyperacute BPV, acute/subacute BPV was more strongly associated with both mortality and poor functional outcome. Conclusion: Inpatient blood pressure variability is an important determinant of mortality and poor functional outcome in ICH survivors. Further studies are needed to investigate the role of addressing BPV as a potential target for intervention.

Value of tube combined with real-time ultrasound-guided accurate interstitial high-dose-rate brachytherapy for post-operative pelvic side-wall recurrences of cervical cancer.

PurposeTreatment of post-operative pelvic side-wall relapses of cervical cancer has always been a therapeutic challenge for radiation oncologists. Radiation dose boost to recurrent tumor by brachytherapy is necessary, but difficult to achieve. Our treatment center has successfully achieved precise transvaginal insertion of a pelvic side-wall mass, using a metal tube with real-time ultrasound guidance. This study investigates the efficacy and safety of image-guided high-dose-rate (HDR) interstitial brachytherapy (IBT) for patients with post-operative pelvic side-wall relapses.Material and methodsBetween 2018 and 2020, 36 post-operative pelvic side-wall relapses of cervical cancer patients receiving external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) combined with HDR-IBT were analyzed retrospectively. Doses per fraction ranged from 6.0 to 7.0 Gy, whereas cumulative equivalent doses in 2 Gy fractions ranged from 80 to 100 Gy. Effects of prognostic factors on local control (LC) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed, and late toxicity data were evaluated.ResultsA total of thirty-six patients were included, with a median follow-up of 19.3 months. The tumor response was obtained for all patients, with radiological complete remission in 20 (55.6%) patients. Two-years LC and PFS rates were 72.2% and 47.2%, respectively. Grade II rectal toxicity was observed in 5 patients (13.9%). Multivariate analyses for LC and PFS using proportional regression model were performed, in which shape of exophytic tumor was associated with a significantly better prognosis for both LC and PFS (HR = 0.071, 0.128, p = 0.005, 0.002). Clinical target volume (CTV) D90 remained associated with a significantly better prognosis for PFS (HR = 0.056, p = 0.000).ConclusionsA metal tube placed in the vagina, under the guidance of real-time ultrasound in transvaginal IBT for pelvis masses can be accurately achieved. The shape of exophytic tumor and CTV D90 were associated with a significantly better prognosis for PFS, and the shape of exophytic tumor was also associated with a better prognosis for LC. Therefore, radiation dose boost using IBT can improve the prognosis of patients with post-operative pelvic side-wall recurrences of cervical cancer.

Important CT and histopathological findings for recurrence and overall survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who underwent surgery after neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX.

To investigate important factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) who underwent surgery after neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX using CT and histopathological findings. Sixty-nine patients with PDA who underwent surgery after neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX were retrospectively included. All patients underwent baseline and first follow-up CT. Two reviewers assessed the CT findings and resectability based on the NCCN guideline. They graded extrapancreatic perineural invasion (EPNI) using a 3-point scale focused on 5 routes. Clinical and histopathological results, such as T- and N-stage, tumor regression grade (TRG) using the College of American Pathology (CAP) grading system, and resection status, were also investigated. Kaplan-Meier methods were used for RFS and OS. The Cox proportional hazard model and logistic regression model were used to identify significant predictive factors. There were 57 patients (82.6%) without residual tumors (R0) and 12 patients (17.4%) with residual tumors (R1 or R2). The median RFS was 13 months (range 0~22 months). For RFS, EPNI on baseline CT (hazard ratio (HR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.116-5.733, p = 0.026) and TRG (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.000-3.076, p = 0.046) were important predictors of early recurrence. The mean OS was 48 months (range 11~35 months). For OS, TRG (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.251-6.559, p = 0.013) was a significant factor. However, there were no independent predictors for residual tumors according to the CT findings. EPNI on baseline CT and TRG were important prognostic factors for tumor recurrence. In addition, TRG was also an important prognostic factor for OS. • CT and histopathological findings are helpful for predicting early recurrence and poor survival. • EPNI on baseline CT (HR 2.53, p = 0.026) is an important predictor of early recurrence. • The TRG is an important prognostic factor for early recurrence (HR 1.76, p = 0.046) and poor survival (HR 1.05, p = 0.013).

Comparison of complete renal response and mortality in early- and late-onset lupus nephritis: a multicenter retrospective study of a Japanese cohort

BackgroundMost patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) progress to lupus nephritis (LN) within 5 years of their SLE diagnosis, although it is not uncommon for LN to develop at later time points. Here we evaluated the clinical features of early- and late-onset LN.Patients and methodsWe retrospectively analyzed the cases of 184 of the 201 patients who underwent a renal biopsy at Nagasaki University Hospital and associated community hospitals between 1990 and 2016 and were diagnosed as having LN. Early onset was defined as the development of LN within the first 5 years after the patient’s SLE diagnosis, and late onset was defined as LN development > 5 years post-diagnosis. We analyzed the complete renal response (CR) at 6 and 12 months after induction therapy, the classification of renal pathology, and the mortality of the early- and late-onset LN groups.ResultsThe mean follow-up duration after the renal biopsy was 123 ± 85 months. There were 113 (61.4%) early-onset patients and 71 (38.6%) late-onset patients. A multivariate analysis revealed that the following factors were predictive of CR: at 6 months: female sex (odds ratio [OR] 3.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31–11.77, p = 0.010), proteinuria (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.71–0.97, p = 0.009), index of activity (0–24) (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70–0.99, p = 0.030), and early-onset LN (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.15–4.98, p = 0.018); at 12 months: female sex (OR 3.60, 95% CI 1.32–9.83, p = 0.013), mixed LN (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04–0.80, p = 0.024), index of activity (0–24) (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.68–0.94, p = 0.007), and early-onset LN (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.05–4.23, p = 0.035). In a Cox proportional hazards and Fine-Gray regression model, the early-onset LN group had a significantly better mortality rate than the late-onset LN group (p = 0.038 and p = 0.043, respectively).ConclusionsIn our cohort, early-onset LN was a better predictor of CR at 6 and 12 months than late-onset LN. Our results suggest that early-onset LN patients had lower mortality than late-onset LN patients.

Spawn Timing of Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in the Upper Sacramento River

Spawn timing in anadromous Pacific salmon may be especially sensitive to environmental cues such as river temperature and flow regimes. In this study, we explored correlations between peak spawn timing and water temperature in endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook. In recent drought years, rising water temperatures during egg incubation have negatively impacted winter-run Chinook populations. This paper seeks to understand how winter-run spawn timing may be affected by temperatures during adult spawner staging, and how water releases from Shasta Dam might affect these dynamics. We fit a proportional odds logistic regression model to evaluate annual spawn timing as a function of average temperatures in April and May below Keswick Dam. While the start date of spawning remains relatively constant from year-to-year, there is annual variability in when the majority of spawning occurs. Cool springtime temperatures trigger winter-run Chinook to spawn earlier, whereas warm springtime temperatures trigger fish to spawn later. Prior to dam construction, winter-run Chinook spawned in cool, spring-fed streams that are now inaccessible to migrating salmonids. Temperature-driven spawn timing would have primarily ensured sufficient time for egg maturation in cool years, while secondarily preventing mortality in warm years. In the current winter-run Chinook spawning grounds, this relationship may have important applications to management of Shasta Dam water releases during conditions when thermal mortality can affect developing winter-run Chinook eggs.

P1253ASSOCIATION OF PREDIALYSIS PULSE PRESSURE (PP) AND ITS INTRADIALYTIC VARIATIONS IN 5 YEAR MULTICENTER COHORT STUDY

Abstract Background and Aims Elevated PP, as a surrogate marker of elastic properties the arteries vessel wall, is important characteristics of the cardiovascular system and may be associated with poor survival both in the general eldery population with arterial hypertension and in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (HD). It has been shown, that increase predialysis PP in HD patients was associated with a higher risk of hospitalization or death, but the relationship between PP changes during HD was not well investigated in large prospective cohort studies. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of elevated predialisis PP and its intradialytic PP variations on survival in the Kaplan-Meir curves and in the Cox regression models. Method The retrospective cohort included patients who underwent maintenance HD in the large chain of B. Braun Avitum free standing HD units in Russia from 2011 to 2016 years (n = 3704). The mean age of the patients was 54,8±13,7 years, 45% were women and 55% men. All patients were on B. Braun Dialog+ Evolution dialysis machines with Adimea option for on-line KT/V measurement and synthetic alpha-polysulphone Xevonta series dialyzers (surface area 1,8, 2,0 and 2,3 sq. m.) The delivered dialysis dose, according to the Daugirdas 2nd generation formula was 1,6 ± 0.23 (spKt/V). Statistical analysis in a Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional Cox regression model were performed. The study used averaged BP data measured over the entire observation period and PP calculation. Patients were divided into subgroups according PP calculation &amp;lt;35, 35-55, 55-75 and more than 75 mm Hg. Variations in intradialytic PP (ΔPP) were divided into groups according to PP average change during HD procedure: -25 and lower decrease, -25 - -10, -10 - 0, 0 - 10, and 10 - 25 increase, mm Hg. Results From total cohort of 3704 patients, 207 (5,6%) has highly elevated PP (&amp;gt; 75 mmHg) and another 1549 (41,8%) has slightly elevated PP (55-75 mm hg). During the study, 393 deaths occurred. The Kaplan-Meyer survival curves clearly demonstrate that the worst survival rate occurs in the subgroup of patients with the markedly elevated predialysis PP (n=207, 35 deaths; HR = 1,7 CI = 1,3 – 2,6; p &amp;lt;0,001; Pic. 1). Then we analyze association of intradialytic PP changes and mortality in total cohort (n=3704) and the subgroups with elevated PP (n=1756). Both marked PP drop down and PP increase during HD worsen survival: the most poor demonstrate patients with highest decrease in PP (-25 mm Hg and more) and then with highest increase in PP (+10-25 mm hg) within HD procedure (Pic. 2). In unadjusted Cox model predialytic PP and survival remain significant (p=0,01), but not PP changes (p=0,3). After multivariable adjustments in the Cox regression model with main demographic factors (age, treatment duration) and key laboratory indices (spKT/V, urea, creatinine, hemoglobin, albumin, Ca, PO4, PTH) there were no association between both predialysis PP and PP changes and mortality (p=0,9 and 0,1, respectively). Among the independent risk factors in our model, highest hazard ratio affecting survival has for ultrafiltration (UF) speed both for predialytic PP and PP variations (tabl. 1 and table 2). Conclusion In our study PP and its intradialytic variations show statistical significant association with mortality in single factor survival analysis and in unadjusted Cox regression model, but were not independent factor in adjusted multivariate HR model. UF speed has the highest impact on mortality in our model. We can hypothesize, that patients with elevated PP are vulnerable for high UF rate and prone for intradialytic hypotension and higher mortality on maintenance HD.