Property Market Research Articles

Sales prices, social rigidity and the second home property market

Second homes are much valued as recreational resources and also as important commodities on the property market. This study examines the trading patterns and regional price development of Danish second homes from 1992 to 2020. Second home sales volumes and prices reflect the general economic booms and busts and also the possibilities to rent out the property on sharing platforms. However, across regional clusters and over time, property price developments suggest a significant social rigidity in preferences and prospects. The investment and financialization logics and the underlying guiding conspicuous consumption behavior has not changed as an effect of the increased demand during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. When controlling for factors such as house and land plot size, building year, location attractiveness the strong social class and spatial rigidity is reproduced in the data. The shifting of wealth accumulated in the second homes between generations supports the same tendency, and taxation does not rebalance regional effects. Accordingly, only to a limited extent does owning a second home contribute to social equality, even if some second-home owners and policy makers tend to think otherwise. Economic measures in planning and governance portfolios are found to be negligible.

Self-governing organizations and culture: addressing condominium law developments in China

PurposeThis paper aims to unfold the intricate relations between private law design, the structure of organizations for collective action and cultural values and orientations that practically guide interpersonal interactions in Chinese society.Design/methodology/approachDrawing upon the Hofstede Insights National Culture survey (The Culture Compass) data and some judicial rulings in China, this paper examines the legislative development and judicial approach to settle condominium disputes to explain and address the cultural orientation for future legal reform. This paper examines how the law reflects and responds to the cultural and social variations/interactions among the stakeholders, namely, local government, developers, homeowner associations, condo owners and property management agents.FindingsCulture plays a significant role in shaping how condominiums are governed in China. This analysis can highlight the role of cultural factors that influence the success or failure of condominium governance and suggest ways in which governance structures can be adapted to reflect the legal culture of the community better. The emphasis on social harmony, respect for authority, relationships and networks and knowledge and expertise all contribute to a unique approach to condominium governance that reflects the values and priorities of Chinese society.Originality/valueWhile much has been written on the importance of property rights to economic development, relatively little seems to be understood about processes of change in complex property systems, particularly in China, a socialist-transforming country. Specifically, there is a lack of reliable knowledge about the intricate relations between the structure of organizations for collective action and cultural orientations that practically guide interpersonal interactions in Chinese society. The question at the heart of this research relates to the condominium rules most suitable for an emerging Chinese private property market.

Housing Market in Central European City during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Many aspects of the global economy changed during the Covid-19 pandemic, including the real estate market. This study examines the primary residential property market in Opole during the Covid-19 pandemic. It uses property transaction data from 2018 to 2021 to conduct statistical analyses and independent group tests and also takes into account the real-estate price trend from 2014 to 2020. The study finds that both property prices and preferences relating to the structure and location of housing changed during the pandemic. In the case of Opole, the number of transactions involving residential units in the primary market increased in 2020 compared to previous years. After adjusting the unit price value of residential properties for the trend in the pre-pandemic period, the study finds that there was also an increase in property transaction prices. The study confirms three important facts relating to phenomena that are occurring globally in cities today. First, local communities are more diverse in terms of the economic heterogeneity of real estate buyers. Second, unlike big urban areas, small cities may be more resistant to the process of citizens migrating to suburban areas, thereby limiting the negative phenomenon of urban sprawl. Third, the housing real estate market in small cities is considered a reliable form of investment of assets, as real estate prices increased during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Measuring the response of the property price index to monetary policy shock: Evidence from emerging market economies

This study examined the response of the residential property price index (RPPI) to monetary policy shocks. The analysis utilized a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation covering the markets of 12 emerging countries over a quarterly period from 2000 Q1 to 2022 Q4. In a dynamic data model, the panel VAR estimation could be biased when the coefficients of the endogenous variables differ across countries. The results of the pooling assumption showed that the models contain heterogeneity among samples, indicating the need for a solution to address this problem. Consequently, a mean group estimation for the panel VAR was performed to resolve the heterogeneity issue. The residential property price index negatively responded to changes in housing loan (HL) and central bank (CB) interest rates. In contrast, it positively responded to changes in inflation, gross domestic product, and population. This research provided policymakers with recommendations on emerging market demand. To successfully interfere in the property market, policymakers must pay greater attention to formulating monetary policy, notably central bank interest rates. A steady central bank policy rate prevents growth in the property sector. Future research should include macroprudential policy as an endogenous component in the model.

Is mandatory seller disclosure of flood risk necessary? A Brisbane, Australia, case study

PurposeInformation on the impact of flooding is fundamental to mitigating flood risk in residential property. This paper aims to provide insight into the seller disclosure of flood risk and buyer behaviour in the absence of mandated seller disclosure.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts a case study approach to critically evaluate the matrix of flood information available for buyers purchasing residential property in Brisbane, Queensland. This paper uses big data analytic techniques to extract and analyse internet data from online seller agents and buyer platforms to gain an understanding of buyer awareness and consideration of flood risk in the residential property market.FindingsAnalysis of property marketing data demonstrates that seller agents voluntarily disclose flood impact only in periods where a flooding event is anticipated and is limited to asserting a property is free of flood risk. Analysis of buyer commentary demonstrates that buyers are either unaware of flood information or are discounting the risk of flood in favour of other property and locational attributes when selecting residential property.Practical implicationsThis research suggests that improved and accessible government-provided flood mapping tools are not enhancing buyers’ understanding and awareness of flood risk. Accordingly, it is recommended that mandatory disclosure be introduced in Queensland so that buyers are more able to manage risk and investment decisions before the purchase of residential property.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to existing literature on raising community awareness and understanding of natural disaster risks and makes a further contribution in identifying mandatory disclosure as a mechanism to highlight the risk of flooding and inform residential property purchasers.

Criminal accumulation by dispossession: the exploitation of property development in peripheral areas by organised crime

ABSTRACT The paper discusses the infiltration of mafia-type organised crime groups (OCGs) in property development, with a particular focus on peripheral areas. It has two main aims. First, to shed light on the fact that mafia-type OCGs often become active players in this industry. Second, to identify those place-bound aspects that foster their infiltration. To this end, the article reviews recent cases of infiltration in the sphere of urban development with regard to the non-traditional mafia area of northern Italy. By investigating two peripheral municipalities, Brescello and Desio, it offers an insight into two main factors that make peripheral areas an attractive property market for place-embedded OCGs such as mafia groups: first, the structural weaknesses of peripheral municipalities with regard to their political–administrative spheres which, in turn, amplify the shortcomings of the planning process; and second, the fact that peripheral property markets present some features that make them more likely to be affected by the economic input of OCGs and thus create an ideal scenario for a process of criminal accumulation by dispossession.

UK commercial real estate valuation practice: does it now build in sustainability considerations?

PurposeThis paper investigates the extent to which commercial property valuers in the UK refer to Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) professional standards and guidance on the inclusion of sustainability in valuation reports. Data collection, analysis and reporting related to sustainability attributes is examined, as well as the perceived importance of these attributes to clients and any value impacts that are associated with them.Design/methodology/approachAn online survey of UK commercial property valuers was conducted from July to September 2019. The survey included both structured and open-ended questions.FindingsReference to RICS standards and guidance on sustainability has improved since earlier research. However, progress on data collection is still limited. At the time of the survey, UK valuers indicated that sustainability attributes were of more importance to owner-occupiers than investors and lenders. UK valuers also indicated that, out of a range of sustainability attributes, only certification was influencing market value (MV) and investment value (IV) to any great extent.Research limitations/implicationsThe online survey had 53 responses and this limited the ability to draw definitive conclusions. Hence, whilst the results may be indicative of the perceptions of some valuers of the significance of sustainability-related matters in the UK, the sample is not large enough to be considered representative of the opinions of property valuers per se in the UK.Practical implicationsExplicit reflection of sustainability in market or investment values is still limited in the UK valuation practice, but there are challenges faced by valuers that need further investigation, including difficulties in pricing sustainability attributes.Originality/valueThis is the first empirical investigation of the perception of sustainability by valuers in the UK commercial property market since the 2012 survey reported by Michl et al. (2016).

Renewable Energy Sources in the Residential Property Market, Exemplified by the City of Krakow (Poland)

Krakow has a permanent population of over 800,000. The number of inhabitants is increasing year on year due to the influx of working people and students, who often settle in Krakow permanently. This is leading to increased demand and consequently more flats and houses being put into use by developers. The increasing environmental awareness of the population and the resulting financial benefits—particularly evident in 2022—have meant that the classic, or rather ill-considered, building industry is gradually being replaced by better, environmentally friendly solutions. In the first part of the article, the authors focus on smart buildings, and in the second part, they combine them with financial changes in the real estate market. The aim of the publication is to draw conclusions from the changes in the real estate market in Krakow that have taken place in the last decade and to assess these activities from the point of view of environmental solutions. The data are mainly derived from official statistics and trade reports published by research institutes, marketing agencies operating in the real estate sector in Poland, as well as specialist portals and publications dealing with real estate market analysis. The publication analyzes changes in the real estate market in terms of changes in unit prices, number of transactions, and availability. The analysis covers landed property, the primary and secondary premises market, developed property, and tenement buildings.

Empirical effects of the designation of milieu protection areas on the residential property market in Berlin

ABSTRACT Milieu protection areas (MPAs) are a frequently used urban policy regulation method in large German cities such as Berlin or Munich. MPAs protect residents from displacement by restricting property rights in designated zones through limitations on modernisation and the conversion of rental apartments into condominiums. Policymakers expect this to have a price-dampening effect and slow gentrification while also anticipating corresponding effects on property markets. This study investigates the long-term empirical effects of these restrictions on the Berlin residential property market and examines how milieu protection affected the purchase prices and transactions of condominiums within Berlin’s MPAs and their surroundings. We relate transaction data from 1991 to 2019 with other neighbourhood characteristics, regress prices, and the number of transactions using geographic information systems and regression difference-in-differences models in different spatial submarkets both inside and outside of the MPAs. Results indicate that milieu protection reduces transaction activity in property markets and regulation has been ineffective in curbing price increases. Meanwhile, limitations on the conversion of former rental flats have led to lower price increases compared to the surrounding areas. This study contributes to the understanding of regulation as a potential determinant of supply and price effects in the property market.

RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION IN GENTRIFYING URBAN INDUSTRIAL DISTRICTS: The Experience of Cultural Manufacturers in San Francisco and Melbourne

AbstractRecent urban scholarship shows how zoning and real estate dynamics shape ongoing processes of gentrification and deindustrialization. While studies demonstrate the impact of planning and property market pressures on the arts, less research has examined their effect on urban manufacturers in gentrifying industrial districts. Given the differential impact of zoning and real estate pressures, our research focuses specifically on how ‘cultural manufacturers’ negotiate changing land use patterns in gentrifying urban industrial areas in San Francisco and Melbourne. Our findings show how cultural manufacturers develop flexible workspace arrangements, business models and professional networks to negotiate urban restructuring and avoid displacement. Though innovative, these survival strategies provide limited ability to navigate structural barriers. Here, the presence of intermediary organizations can help coordinate a strategic response to industrial gentrification and indifferent planning policy. In our research we highlight the everyday practices of adaptation and collective action in an under‐researched cultural sector to provide a counterweight to macro‐scale transitional narratives. While cities have deindustrialized owing to technological and competitive pressures, to focus exclusively on this misses a range of resilience practices that have sustained manufacturers in restructuring cities.

REAL ESTATE MARKET AT A CROSSROAD - ERA OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IS GONE

Within a broad discussion on property price formation and property market specifics this paper aims to investigate the relationship between property price trends and number of transactions occurred on housing market. Specifically, we test if housing transaction volumes and rents are good predictors of housing prices and discuss causalities and differences in this relationship on the sales and rental property markets. We bring evidence from selected European property markets about the relationship between property price trend and number of transactions occurring on this market. We argue that increased number of transactions is predictive of increase in property price, but prices tend to be rigid in the opposite (downward) direction. Thus, cooling down of demand for properties may rather decrease number of transactions than push down property prices. This appealing result may bring light into understanding why property prices appreciate across time and countries.

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.

The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Economic Responses on First Home Buyers? Evidence from New South Wales, Australia

As in many other nations, the Australian Government implemented monetary and fiscal policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to aid economic recovery. Among these policies were specific measures to assist first home buyers (FHBs) in entering the housing market. However, these unprecedented economic policies might have other direct and indirect implications on FHBs, which have yet to be thoroughly explored in the literature. To fill this gap, through a survey, we collected information via public and online mortgage broker platforms from 61 FHBs who successfully entered the housing market or were actively searching during the pandemic. The results found COVID-19 economic responses counterproductive for FHBs, pushing them to a more disadvantaged position due to an overheated property market. In addition, since the onset of the pandemic, property prices have risen significantly, exacerbating housing inequality as FHBs increasingly rely on intergenerational family support, take on more financial risk, and relocate to regional areas due to fear of missing out. The study highlights the need for macroeconomists and housing policymakers to consider these unintended consequences in formulating policies that minimise the adverse effects of economic stimulus measures.

People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

After coping with another year of large COVID-related disruptions, economic activity is normalizing with the re-opening of the border, including with Mainland China. Strong fiscal policy support has helped the economy navigate through multiple shocks over the last few years, while strong institutional frameworks and financial buffers have allowed the financial system to remain resilient and continue to operate smoothly, including the Linked Exchange Rate System. The economy is facing macro-financial challenges amid rising interest rates, spillovers from strains in Mainland China’s real estate sector, adjustment in the local property market, and global economic slowdown.

Why <em>Monopoly</em> Monopolises Popular Culture Board Games

Why <em>Monopoly</em> Monopolises Popular Culture Board Games

Commodifying Havana? Private accumulation, assetisation and marketisation in the Cuban metropolis

In the Global South, cities are increasingly restructuring themselves around the financial pressures of international capital markets. Therefore, it is sometimes hypothesised that financial innovations created in the Global North are moving ‘South’. However, even though transnational capital is finding its way into Southern regions and other areas of reform, the road towards urban commodification is bumpy and uneven. In Havana, Cuba, the government recently legalised free market home sales, contributing to an unprecedented transnational property boom where many homes were acquired by Cuban émigrés and nationals and converted into restaurants, hotels or short-term rentals. Nevertheless, due to endogenous and exogenous market restraints, the pandemic and complex interactions between state authorities and property-owning private entrepreneurs, Cuban-style commodification remains an incomplete and contested process. Even so, non-debt bearing assetisation pressures are clearly redefining Havana’s socialist property market. While the state encourages foreign direct investment into state-owned hotels and joint ventures, transnational remittances contribute to the commodification of Havana’s private housing stock.

Spatial–Temporal Variation and Influencing Factors on Housing Prices of Resource-Based City: A Case Study of Xuzhou, China

The steady development of the real estate market is an important link in the transformation of resource-based cities. Taking the main urban area of Xuzhou, a typical resource-based city in China, as an example, this study used a spatial–temporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) method guided by characteristic price theory to analyze the evolution of the spatial–temporal pattern of house prices in resource-based cities and the influencing factors. The results of the study showed that, from the time trend, Xuzhou’s main city house price trend underwent the obvious stages; from June 2015 to September 2016, the trend was stable, and from March 2017 to June 2018, it was an “up–down–up” trend. With respect to the spatial distribution of house prices, from June 2015 to June 2017, the traditional business district and the major city in the Xuzhou metropolitan area were the areas of highest house prices, and after September 2017, the structural features of the traditional business district, along with the main city of the metropolitan area and the new city, formed the areas of highest importance. With regard to the factors influencing house prices, the type of dwelling, according to the building characteristics, had the largest impact on house prices, and the enrichment of housing types became an effective way to regulate housing prices. The impact of location characteristics on house prices varied depending on differences in the public infrastructure surrounding housing, with the contribution of the planned metro stations to house prices not effectively emerging. The impact of neighborhood characteristics on house prices varied, with tertiary care hospitals having a ‘neighborhood avoidance effect’ on house prices, given that hospital-generated waste was too densely distributed around houses, suppressing neighborhood house prices. The results of this study indicated that, in the process of real estate market development in resource-based cities, the planning department should consider the different functions and division of labor in each region and scientifically formulate urban development plans to provide a good external environment for the healthy development of the city’s property market.

Analysis of the loan suspension fiasco from an economic perspective

The importance of the real estate sector to China cannot be overstated, but the recent loan suspensions have had a definite impact on the Chinese property market, with several banks and brokerages showing weakness and an increase in non-performing loans in the face of the liquidity crisis in the real estate market. Investigating the causes of the loan suspension is of great importance to the study of the stability of the real estate market. This paper will use the loan suspension as an entry point to give an analysis of the importance of the real estate sector and point out the important role of real estate in China's economic growth. It will then analyze the relationship between supply and demand in China's commodity housing market from a micro perspective and finally speculate on the causes of the loan suspension by combining micro and macroeconomics.

Property Market Analysis of the Hospitality Sector in Central Lombok District

The number of tourists visiting and the number of hotel rooms available in Central Lombok Regency are growing in line with the development of tourism in Central Lombok Regency. To estimate the need for the number of hotel rooms in Central Lombok Regency, it is necessary to research the property market condition of the hotel sector in Central Lombok Regency. This study aims to analyze the property market conditions in the hotel sector in Central Lombok Regency by using the theory of six steps of property market analysis to get the conclusion that the property market conditions in the hotel sector in Central Lombok Regency are in an undersupply or oversupply state. This research is a quantitative study by calculating the level of demand and supply of hotel rooms in Central Lombok Regency based on historical data on the growth of the number of tourists and the number of hotel rooms in Central Lombok Regency.

Productive Safety Net Program Determinants and their Impact on Rural Household Food Security in Somali Regional State: The Case of Kebri Dehar District) Ethiopia

The study looked specifically at household food security, factors influencing people's decisions to participate in productive safety net programs, and the impact of production safety net programs on rural household food security, as measured by calorie intake. Primary data were collected from 334 households in four kebeles samples in Kebri Dehar, the district, using a multistage sampling technique. A binary logit model and a propensity score matching model were used to investigate the factors influencing the decision to participate and their impact on food security, respectively. The age of the household head and the size of the family have a positive effect on the decision to join the household. However, extended contact and distance from the property market had a negative impact on the decision to join. In this study, the nearest neighbor match method (5) was used to estimate the mean treatment effect for those treated. The propensity score matching results also show that the production safety net program has a positive and significant impact on household food security. Households participating in the production safety net program have 214.5 kcal/adult/day more than households not participating. The study concluded that there was a significant difference in household calorie intake between participants and nonparticipants.