Prolonged Acute Mechanical Ventilation Research Articles

Ability of the modified NUTRIC score to predict mortality in patients requiring short-term versus prolonged acute mechanical ventilation: a retrospective cohort study.

The modified NUTRIC (nutritional risk in the critically ill) score has been reported to predict clinical outcomes in critically ill patients. However, the applicability of this score may differ between patients undergoing short-term mechanical ventilation (STMV, < 96 h) and those undergoing prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV, ⩾96 h), as PAMV patients typically experience significantly higher morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to investigate the predictive ability of modified NUTRIC score for predicting 28-day mortality in patients receiving STMV and PAMV. Retrospective single-center cohort study. We enrolled patients who received mechanical ventilation (MV) on the day of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) from 1 December 2015 to 30 November 2020. Modified NUTRIC scores were calculated based on the clinical data of each patient at ICU admission. The study population comprised 464 patients, including 319 (68.8%) men with a mean age of 69.7 years. Among these patients, 132 (28.4%) received STMV and 332 (71.6%) received PAMV. The overall 28-day mortality rate was 26.7%, which was significantly higher in STMV patients than in PAMV patients (37.9% versus 22.3%, p < 0.001). Evaluation of the predictive performance of the modified NUTRIC score for 28-day mortality revealed areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.672 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.627-0.714] for total patients, 0.819 (95% CI, 0.742-0.880) for STMV patients, and 0.595 (95% CI, 0.540-0.648) for PAMV patients. The best overall cutoff value was 5 in total, STMV, and PAMV patients. This cutoff value was a significant predictor of 28-day mortality based on the Cox proportional hazard model for total [hazards ratio (HR): 2.681; 95% CI: 1.683-4.269] and STMV (HR: 5.725; 95% CI: 2.057-15.931) patients, but not for PAMV patients. The modified NUTRIC score is more effective in predicting 28-day mortality in patients undergoing STMV than in those undergoing PAMV.

Development of a prognostic scoring system in patients with pneumonia requiring ventilator care for more than 4 days: a single-center observational study.

BackgroundThe aim of the present study was to develop a prognostic model using demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and clinical variables measured on day 4 of mechanical ventilation (MV) for patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV; MV for >96 hours). MethodsData from 437 patients (70.9% male; median age, 68 years) were obtained over a period of 9 years. All patients were diagnosed with pneumonia. Binary logistic regression identified factors predicting mortality at 90 days after the start of MV. A PAMV prognosis score was calculating ß-coefficient values and assigning points to variables.ResultsThe overall 90-day mortality rate was 47.1%. Five factors (age ≥65 years, body mass index <18.5 kg/m2, hemato-oncologic diseases as comorbidities, requirement for vasopressors on day 4 of MV and requirement for neuromuscular blocking agents on day 4 of MV) were identified as prognostic indicators. Each factor was valued as +1 point, and used to develop a PAMV prognosis score. This score showed acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.695 for mortality, 95% confidence interval 0.650–0.738, p<0.001), and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow chi-square=6.331, with df 7 and p=0.502). The cutoff value for predicting mortality based on the maximum Youden index was ≤2 (sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 41.3%). For patients with PAMV scores ≤1, 2, 3 and ≥4, the 90-day mortality rates were 29.2%, 45.7%, 67.9%, and 90.9%, respectively (P<0.001).ConclusionsOur study developed a PAMV prognosis score for predicting 90-day mortality. Further research is needed to validate the utility of this score.

484: Prolonged Acute Versus Short-Term Mechanical Ventilation in Surgical Patients in the US, 2014–2018

484: Prolonged Acute Versus Short-Term Mechanical Ventilation in Surgical Patients in the US, 2014–2018

Epidemiology of Chronic Critical Illness in Japan: A Nationwide Inpatient Database Study.

The epidemiology of chronic critical illness is not well known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, mortality, and costs associated with chronic critical illness in Japan. A nationwide inpatient administrative database study in Japan from April 2011 to March 2018. Six hundred seventy-nine acute-care hospitals with ICU beds in Japan. Adult patients who met our definition for chronic critical illness: one of six eligible clinical conditions (prolonged acute mechanical ventilation, tracheotomy, stroke, traumatic brain injury, sepsis, and severe wound) plus at least 8 consecutive days in an ICU. None. Among 2,395,016 ICU admissions during the study period, 216,434 (9.0%) met the definition for chronic critical illness. The most common eligible condition was prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (73.9%), followed by sepsis (50.6%), tracheostomy (23.8%), and stroke (22.8%). Overall inhospital mortality was 28.6%. The overall age-specific population prevalence was 42.0 per 100,000. The age-specific population prevalence steadily increased with age, reaching 109.6 per 100,000 in persons aged greater than 85 years. With extrapolation to national estimates in Japan, there were 47,729 chronic critical illness cases in 2011 and the number remained similar at 46,494 cases in 2017. Hospitalization costs increased gradually, rising from U.S.$2.3 billion in 2011 to U.S.$2.7 billion in 2017. Inhospital mortality decreased from 30.6% to 28.2%, whereas the proportion of patients with total/severe dependence increased from 29.6% to 33.2% and the proportion of patients with decreased consciousness at discharge increased from 18.7% to 19.6%. Using a nationwide inpatient database in Japan, we found substantial clinical and economic burdens of chronic critical illness in Japan. Chronic critical illness was particularly common in elderly people. Although inhospital mortality of chronic critical illness patients continues to decrease, costs and patients with dependence for activities of daily living or decreased consciousness at discharge are increasing.

Effect of Early Tracheostomy on Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Prolonged Acute Mechanical Ventilation: A Single-Center Study.

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of early tracheostomy on clinical outcomes in patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (≥96 hours).MethodsData from 575 patients (69.4% male; median age, 68 years), hospitalized in the medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university-affiliated tertiary care hospital March 2008–February 2017, were retrospectively evaluated. Early and late tracheostomy were designated as 2–10 days and >10 days after translaryngeal intubation, respectively.ResultsThe 90-day cumulative mortality rate was 47.5% (n=273) and 258 patients (44.9%) underwent tracheostomy. In comparison with the late group (n=115), the early group (n=125) had lower 90-day mortality (31.2% vs. 47.8%, p=0.012), shorter stays in hospital and ICU, shorter ventilator length of stay (median, 43 vs. 54; 24 vs. 33; 23 vs. 28 days; all p<0.001), and a higher rate of transfer to secondary care hospitals with post-intensive care settings (67.2% vs. 43.5% p<0.001). Also, the total medical costs of the early group were lower during hospital stays than those of the late group (26,609 vs. 36,973 USD, p<0.001).ConclusionEarly tracheostomy was associated with lower 90-day mortality, shorter ventilator length of stay and shorter lengths of stays in hospital and ICU, as well as lower hospital costs than late tracheostomy.

Reducing pressure ulcers in patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation: a quasi-experimental study.

ObjectiveTo determine the effectiveness of a quality management program in reducing the incidence and severity of pressure ulcers in critical care patients.MethodsThis was a quasi-experimental, before-and-after study that was conducted in a medical-surgical intensive care unit. Consecutive patients who had received mechanical ventilation for ≥ 96 hours were included. A "Process Improvement" team designed a multifaceted interventional process that consisted of an educational session, a pressure ulcer checklist, a smartphone application for lesion monitoring and decision-making, and a "family prevention bundle".ResultsFifty-five patients were included in Pre-I group, and 69 were included in the Post-I group, and the incidence of pressure ulcers in these groups was 41 (75%) and 37 (54%), respectively. The median time for pressure ulcers to develop was 4.5 [4 - 5] days in the Pre-I group and 9 [6 - 20] days in the Post-I group after admission for each period. The incidence of advanced-grade pressure ulcers was 27 (49%) in the Pre-I group and 7 (10%) in the Post-I group, and finally, the presence of pressure ulcers at discharge was 38 (69%) and 18 (26%), respectively (p < 0.05 for all comparisons). Family participation totaled 9% in the Pre-I group and increased to 57% in the Post-I group (p < 0.05). A logistic regression model was used to analyze the predictors of advanced-grade pressure ulcers. The duration of mechanical ventilation and the presence of organ failure were positively associated with the development of pressure ulcers, while the multifaceted intervention program acted as a protective factor.ConclusionA quality program based on both a smartphone application and family participation can reduce the incidence and severity of pressure ulcers in patients on prolonged acute mechanical ventilation.

A State-Level Assessment of Hospital-Based Palliative Care and the Use of Life-Sustaining Therapies in the United States.

It is unknown how the prevalence of hospitals with palliative care programs (PCPs) at the state level in the United States correlates with the treatment of critically ill patients. We examined the relationship between state-level PCP prevalence and commonly used treatments for critically ill patients as well as other public health metrics. We compiled state-level data for the year 2011 from multiple published sources. These included the poverty rate from the U.S. Census, public health measures such as the number of primary care physicians per 100,000 persons from America's Health Ranking website, and state-level rates for a series of validated ICD-9 (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision) procedure codes used for critically ill patients (e.g., prolonged acute mechanical ventilation [PAMV]) from the State Inpatient Databases (SID), Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. State-level percentages of PCPs came from a published report by the Center to Advance Palliative Care (CAPC). We used the Kruskal-Wallis test and Pearson's correlation coefficient for statistical inference. State-level poverty rates were negatively correlated with the percent of hospitals with PCPs: r = -0.39, p = 0.005. States with more hospital-based PCPs had significantly lower rates of PAMV, tracheostomies, and hemodialysis but higher rates of nutritional support than states with fewer PCPs. States with more poverty and/or at high risk for delivering inefficient health care had fewer hospital PCPs. Hospital-based PCPs may influence the frequency of some interventions for critically ill patients.

The Prognostic Value of the Charlson's Comorbidity Index in Patients with Prolonged Acute Mechanical Ventilation: A Single Center Experience.

BackgroundThe aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic value of Charlson's weighted index of comorbidities (WIC) in patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV, ventilator care ≥96 hours).MethodsWe retrospectively enrolled 299 Korean PAMV patients who were admitted in a medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university-affiliated tertiary care hospital between 2008 and 2013. Survivors were defined as patients who survived for 60 days after ICU admission.ResultsThe patients' mean age was 65.1±14.1 years and 70.6% were male. The mean ICU and hospital length of stay was 21.9±19.7 and 39.4±39.1 days, respectively. In addition, the 60-day mortality rate after ICU admission was 35.5%. The mean WIC was 2.3±1.8, with significant differences between nonsurvivors and survivors (2.7±2.1 vs. 2.1±1.7, p<0.05). The area under the curve of receiver-operating-characteristics curve for WIC was 0.593 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.523–0.661; p<0.05). Based on Kaplan-Meier curves of 60-day survival, WIC ≥5 had statistically lower survival than WIC <5 (log-rank test, p<0.05). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, WIC ≥5 was associated with poor prognosis (hazard ratio, 1.901; 95% CI, 1.140–3.171; p<0.05). The mortality rate of patients with WIC ≥5 was 54.2%.ConclusionOur study showed a WIC score ≥5 might be helpful in predicting 60-day mortality in PAMV patients.

Invasive Mechanical Ventilation in California Over 2000-2009: Implications for Emergency Medicine.

IntroductionPatients who require invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) often represent a sequence of care between the emergency department (ED) and intensive care unit (ICU). Despite being the most populous state, little information exists to define patterns of IMV use within the state of California.MethodsWe examined data from the masked Patient Discharge Database of California’s Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development from 2000–2009. Adult patients who received IMV during their stay were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9th Revision and Clinical Modification procedure codes (96.70, 96.71, 96.72). Patients were divided into age strata (18–34yr, 35–64yr, and >65yr). Using descriptive statistics and regression analyses, for IMV discharges during the study period, we quantified the number of ED vs. non-ED based admissions; changes in patient characteristics and clinical outcome; evaluated the marginal costs for IMV; determined predictors for prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV, i.e. IMV>96hr); and projected the number of IMV discharges and ED-based admissions by year 2020.ResultsThere were 696,634 IMV discharges available for analysis. From 2000–2009, IMV discharges increased by 2.8%/year: n=60,933 (293/100,000 persons) in 2000 to n=79,868 (328/100,000 persons) in 2009. While ED-based admissions grew by 3.8%/year, non-ED-based admissions remained stable (0%). During 2000–2009, fastest growth was noted for 1) the 35–64 year age strata; 2) Hispanics; 3) patients with non-Medicare public insurance; and 4) patients requiring PAMV. Average total patient cost-adjusted charges per hospital discharge increased by 29% from 2000 (from $42,528 to $60,215 in 2014 dollars) along with increases in the number of patients discharged to home and skilled nursing facilities. Higher marginal costs were noted for younger patients (ages 18–34yr), non-whites, and publicly insured patients. Some of the strongest predictors for PAMV were age 35–64 years (OR=1.12; 95% CI [1.09–1.14], p<0.05); non-Whites; and non-Medicare public insurance. Our models suggest that by 2020, IMV discharges will grow to n=153,153 (377 IMV discharges/100,000 persons) with 99,095 admitted through the ED.ConclusionBased on sustained growth over the past decade, by the year 2020, we project a further increase to 153,153 IMV discharges with 99,095 admitted through the ED. Given limited ICU bed capacities, ongoing increases in the number and type of IMV patients have the potential to adversely affect California EDs that often admit patients to ICUs.

Outcomes and prognostic factors in patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation: A single-center study in Korea

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to evaluate outcomes and objective parameters related to poor prognosis in patients who were defined as prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV; ventilator care ≥96 hours) in the medical intensive care unit of a university-affiliated tertiary care hospital in Korea. Material and methodsWe analyzed retrospectively clinical data gathered from the medical records on day 4 of MV between 2008 and 2013. In total, 311 were categorized as PAMV. ResultsTheir median age was 67 years (range, 18-93 years), and 71.7% were male. The 28-day mortality rate after intensive care unit admission was 34.7%. Four variables on day 4 of mechanical ventilation (need for neuromuscular blockers [hazard ratio {HR}, 2.432; 95% confidence interval, 1.337-4.422], need for vasopressors [HR, 2.312; 95% confidence interval, 1.258-4.248], need for hemodialyses [HR, 1.913; 95% confidence interval, 1.018-3.595], and body mass index ≤21 kg/m2 [HR, 1.827; 95% confidence interval, 1.015-3.288]) were independent factors associated with mortality based on a Cox proportional hazards model. As the number of these prognostic factors increased, the survival rate decreased. ConclusionsFour clinical factors (body mass index ≤21, requirement for neuromuscular blockers, vasopressors, and hemodialysis) on day 4 of mechanical ventilation were associated with 28-day mortality in PAMV patients.

Risk factors associated with increased length of mechanical ventilation in children

Invasive mechanical ventilation, if prolonged, may lead to high morbidity and mortality. To determine the incidence rate and early risk factors for prolonged acute invasive mechanical ventilation in children. Retrospective longitudinal cohort study over a 1-yr period. All consecutive episodes of invasive mechanical ventilation in the pediatric intensive care units of Sainte-Justine Hospital (Montreal, Canada) were included. Risk factors for long (≥96 hrs) vs. short (<96 hrs) duration of ventilation were determined by logistic regression. None. Among the 360 episodes of invasive ventilation, 36% had a length of ≥96 hrs. Following multivariate analysis, significant risk factors for prolonged acute invasive mechanical ventilation were age of <12 months (odds ratio 3.27, 95% confidence interval 1.90-5.63), Pediatric Risk of Mortality score of ≥15 at admission (odds ratio 3.41, 95% confidence interval 1.31-8.89), mean airway pressure of ≥13 cm H(2)O on day 1 (odds ratio 5.92, 95% confidence interval 3.08-11.36), use of continuous intravenous sedation on day 1 (odds ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.00-3.05), and use of noninvasive ventilation before intubation (odds ratio 6.56, 95% confidence interval 1.99-21.63). Among the risk factors identified, the use of noninvasive ventilation and continuous intravenous sedation on the first day of ventilation are the only two interventions that were associated with prolonged acute invasive mechanical ventilation. Further research is needed to study the impact of sedation protocols on the duration of mechanical ventilation in children.

Accuracy of previous estimates for adult prolonged acute mechanical ventilation volume in 2020

Patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (mechanical ventilation ≥ 96 hrs) have hospital survival rates similar to those requiring <96 hrs of mechanical ventilation and consume approximately two-thirds of hospital resources devoted to mechanical ventilation care. Using 2000-2005 data, we previously estimated that their volume will go from approximately 250,000 cases in 2000 to 605,898 by year 2020. With 2006-2008 data becoming available, we explored the precision of our previous formulas and estimates. We utilized National Inpatient Sample/Health Care Utilization Project of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality data from 2000 to 2008 to calculate historic annual age-adjusted prolonged acute mechanical ventilation incidence rates using estimated population statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau. To predict future growth by age group, we fit linear regression models to the historic incidence rate changes. Age-adjusted estimates were computed using population projections obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. hospitals. Nationally representative sample of U.S. hospital discharges with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (International Classification of Diseases version 9 code 96.72). None. Formulas based on the 2000-2005 data predicted the 2008 prolonged acute mechanical ventilation volume within a 1.9% margin. The historic annualized increase in adult prolonged acute mechanical ventilation increased from 5.0% to 5.2% after incorporating the 2006-2008 data. Factoring in the 2006-2008 data altered our 2020 prolonged acute mechanical ventilation estimates from 605,898 (95% confidence interval 456,695-779,806) to 625,298 (95% confidence interval 552,168-698,838), an upward revision of 3.2%. Our original projections for growth of the adult prolonged acute mechanical ventilation population in the U.S. hospitals by the year 2020 are altered only slightly by adding the 2006-2008 data. Relatively precise prediction of the 2008 prolonged acute mechanical ventilation numbers by the original formulas lends internal validity to the methodology. By virtue of being a large, resource-intensive, and rapidly increasing population, this group of mechanical ventilation patients requires continued close monitoring over time to optimize our preparedness to meet their growing healthcare needs.

The Implications of Long-Term Acute Care Hospital Transfer Practices for Measures of In-Hospital Mortality and Length of Stay

The National Quality Forum recently endorsed in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit length of stay (LOS) as quality indicators for patients in the intensive care unit. These measures may be affected by transferring patients to long-term acute care hospitals (LTACs). To quantify the implications of LTAC transfer practices on variation in mortality index and LOS index for patients in academic medical centers. We used a cross-sectional study design using data reported to the University HealthSystem Consortium from 2008-2009. Data were from patients who were mechanically ventilated for more than 96 hours. Using linear regression, we measured the association between mortality index and LTAC transfer rate, with the hospital as the unit of analysis. Similar analyses were conducted for LOS index and cost index. A total of 137 hospitals were analyzed, averaging 534 transfers to LTAC per hospital during the study period. Mean±SD in-hospital mortality was 24±6.4%, and observed LOS was 30.4±8.2 days. The mean LTAC transfer rate was 15.7±13.7%. Linear regression demonstrated a significant correlation between transfer rate and mortality index (R2=0.14; P<0.0001) and LOS index (R2=0.43; P<0.0001). LTAC hospital transfer rate has a significant impact on reported mortality and LOS indices for patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation. This is an example of factors unrelated to quality of medical care or illness severity that must be considered when interpreting mortality and LOS as quality indicators.

Increasing incidence of prolonged acute mechanical ventilation

Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine University of Connecticut School of Medicine Farmington, CT (Metersky) Section of Pulmonary, Critical Care, Allergy, and Immunology Wake Forest School of Medicine Winston-Salem, NC (Hite) * See also p. 18. The authors have not disclosed any potential conflicts of interest.

Accuracy of Previous Estimates for Adult Prolonged Acute Mechanical Ventilation Volume in 2020: Update Using 2000-2008 Data

Objectives:Patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (mechanical ventilation ≥96 hrs) have hospital survival rates similar to those requiring <96 hrs of mechanical ventilation and consume approximately two-thirds of hospital resources devoted to mechanical ventilation care. Using 200

Epidemiology and Outcomes of Clostridium difficile-Associated Disease Among Patients on Prolonged Acute Mechanical Ventilation

Patients receiving prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV), although comprising a third of all mechanical ventilation (MV) patients, consume two-thirds of all the resources allocated to MV, and their numbers are projected to double by 2020. By virtue of their prolonged hospital length of stay (median LOS, 17 days), they are subject to such nosocomial infections as Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD), the incidence and age-adjusted case fatality rate of which doubled between 2000 and 2005. We examined the rates and outcomes of CDAD among adult PAMV patients. We analyzed 2005 data from the Health Care Utilization Project/Nationwide Inpatient Sample from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. PAMV and CDAD were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision, clinical modification codes 96.72 and 008.45, respectively. Among 64,910 adult PAMV patients who were discharged in 2005, 3,468 patients (5.34%) had a concurrent diagnosis of CDAD (PAMV patients who were discharged with concomitant diagnosis of CDAD [CDAD+]). CDAD+ patients who were discharged were older (mean [+/- SD] age, 66.7 +/- 15.9 vs 63.7 +/- 16.9 years, respectively; p < 0.001) and were more likely to have been admitted to the hospital from a long-term care facility (5.7% vs 2.9%, respectively; p < 0.001) than PAMV patients who were discharged without CDAD (CDAD-). Although crude hospital mortality rates did not differ among PAMV patients who were discharged from the hospital by CDAD status (CDAD+, 32.6%; CDAD-, 33.0%; p = 0.598), both unadjusted calculations and propensity-score adjustment showed a substantial increase in LOS (6.1 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.9 to 7.4) and total costs ($10,355; 95% CI, $7,540 to $13,170) among CDAD+ patients. PAMV patients have an order of magnitude higher risk of having CDAD than other hospitalized patients. Concurrent CDAD infection is associated with increased hospital LOS and costs. The PAMV population is an attractive target for aggressive measures aimed at CDAD prevention.

Prolonged Acute Mechanical Ventilation: Implications for Hospital Benchmarking

Hospital performance measures rely on aggregate outcomes. For patients receiving mechanical ventilation (MV), outcomes depend on severity of illness, hospital MV volume, and case mix. Patients requiring prolonged acute MV (PAMV) [MV for >or= 96 h] comprise a resource-intensive group, but the impact of its volume on aggregate outcomes is unknown. We investigated whether observed outcomes differed from those predicted by APACHE (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation) IV risk adjustment and the relationship between hospital MV volume and outcomes among patients receiving PAMV. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the APACHE IV database between the years 2001 and 2005. Of the 94,553 patients receiving MV at 45 hospitals, 24,366 (25.8%) were receiving PAMV. Unadjusted mortality was 32.3% for patients receiving PAMV and 22.9% for patients receiving short-term MV (STMV) [< 96 h]. Although mortality predictions were accurate in both groups, the length-of-stay (LOS) predictions underestimated duration of MV, ICU LOS, and hospital LOS by 5.2, 4.6, and 5.4 days, respectively, in the PAMV group. After stratifying the PAMV group by hospital MV volume, except for quintile 1, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was found to be inversely related to the volume quintile. The difference between actual and predicted MV durations, however, exhibited a consistent direct relationship with the MV volume. In patients requiring PAMV, the SMR is inversely proportional to hospital MV volume. Conversely, the PAMV group had a disproportionate effect on durations of MV, ICU LOS, and hospital LOS, and these marginal excesses increased with the hospital MV volume quintile. Development of specific predictive equations for patients receiving PAMV is recommended. Benchmarking measures must consider the case mix of patients receiving STMV vs those receiving PAMV.

Growth in adult prolonged acute mechanical ventilation: Implications for healthcare delivery

Growth in adult prolonged acute mechanical ventilation: Implications for healthcare delivery

Prolonged acute mechanical ventilation and hospital bed utilization in 2020 in the United States: implications for budgets, plant and personnel planning.

BackgroundAdult patients on prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV) comprise 1/3 of all adult MV patients, consume 2/3 of hospital resources allocated to MV population, and are nearly twice as likely to require a discharge to a skilled nursing facility (SNF). Their numbers are projected to double by year 2020. To aid in planning for this growth, we projected their annualized days and costs of hospital use and SNF discharges in year 2020 in the US.MethodsWe constructed a model estimating the relevant components of hospital utilization. We computed the total days and costs for each component; we also applied the risk for SNF discharge to the total 2020 PAMV population. The underlying assumption was that process of care does not change over the time horizon. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to establish 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the point estimates.ResultsGiven 2020 projected PAMV volume of 605,898 cases, they will require 3.6 (95% CI 2.7–4.8) million MV, 5.5 (95% CI 4.3–7.0) million ICU and 10.3 (95% CI 8.1–13.0) million hospital days, representing an absolute increase of 2.1 million MV, 3.2 million ICU and 6.5 million hospital days over year 2000, at a total inflation-adjusted cost of over $64 billion. Expected discharges to SNF are 218,123 (95% CI 177,268–266,739), compared to 90,928 in 2000.ConclusionOur model suggest that the projected growth in the US in PAMV population by 2020 will result in annualized increases of more than 2, 3, and 6 million MV, ICU and hospital days, respectively, over year 2000. Such growth requires careful planning efforts and attention to efficiency of healthcare delivery.

Impact of energy deficit calculated by a predictive method on outcome in medical patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation

To assess energy balance in very sick medical patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation and its possible impact on outcome, we conducted an observational study of the first 14 d of intensive care unit (ICU) stay in thirty-eight consecutive adult patients intubated at least 7 d. Exclusive enteral nutrition (EN) was started within 24 h of ICU admission and progressively increased, in absence of gastrointestinal intolerance, to the recommended energy of 125.5 kJ/kg per d. Calculated energy balance was defined as energy delivered - resting energy expenditure estimated by a predictive method based on static and dynamic biometric parameters. Mean energy balance was - 5439 (sem 222) kJ per d. EN was interrupted 23 % of the time and situations limiting feeding administration reached 64 % of survey time. ICU mortality was 72 %. Non-survivors had higher mean energy deficit than ICU survivors (P = 0.004). Multivariate analysis identified mean energy deficit as independently associated with ICU death (P = 0.02). Higher ICU mortality was observed with higher energy deficit (P = 0.003 comparing quartiles). Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the best deficit threshold for predicting ICU mortality was 5021 kJ per d. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with mean energy deficit > or =5021 kJ per d had a higher ICU mortality rate than patients with lower mean energy deficit after the 14th ICU day (P = 0.01). The study suggests that large negative energy balance seems to be an independent determinant of ICU mortality in a very sick medical population requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation, especially when energy deficit exceeds 5021 kJ per d.