Economic Development Projects Research Articles

Fiscal decentralization, leader localization, and reduction of pollution and carbon emissions —empirical evidence from China's fiscal “province-managing-county” reform

The fiscal system plays an important role in the government's environmental governance efforts. There is currently no consensus on how fiscal structure adjustments impact pollution and carbon reduction. This paper uses China's fiscal “province-managing-county” reform (FPMCR) implemented in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment, utilizing panel data from 1670 counties in China from 2000 to 2020 to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on reduction pollution and carbon emissions (RPCE), as well as its underlying mechanisms. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2020, China's RPCE shows an overall trend of fluctuating increase, with its value turning positive after 2013. China's RPCE exhibits a spatial pattern characterized by “lower in the north, higher in the south; higher in the east, lower in the west”. (2) After implementing FPMCR, the RPCE levels in reformed counties decreased by −1.44%, showing that reformed county-level governments prioritize economic development over environmental protection. (3) The mechanism analysis found that after implementing FPMCR, reformed counties experienced a 9.16% increase in nighttime light intensity (NLI), and a 3.99% and 4.34% increase in the number of large-scale industrial enterprises (NLIE) and industrial agglomeration (IA), respectively. This suggests that FPMCR leads to radical urbanization and rapid industrialization in counties, which is detrimental to the improvement of RPCE levels. (4) The spatial heterogeneity analysis found that FPMCR's impact coefficient on RPCE levels in the eastern regions is −1.96%, while in the western regions it is −1.16%. This indicates that reformed counties in the eastern regions are more likely to invest expanded fiscal resources in economic development projects, leading to a decrease in RPCE levels. (5) The temporal heterogeneity analysis found that after the promulgation of the “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense Battle” in 2018, the adverse impact of FPMCR on RPCE is completely reversed, leading to a 1.76% increase in RPCE levels. (6) Further analysis reveals that localizing leaders can slow down the promotion of county-level urbanization and industrialization by the FPMCR, benefiting the improvement of RPCE levels. In other words, “the outsider monk will not recite scriptures as well as a local one”. This study has clarified the causal relationship and underlying mechanisms between fiscal decentralization and environmental governance, providing reliable theoretical support for optimizing grassroots fiscal systems and reducing environmental pollution in other transitional economies. It enriches the field of environmental economics related to fiscal decentralization.

Stakeholder Engagement and Successful Implementation of Social Economic Development Project: A Case of Jyambere Project

Stakeholder Engagement and Successful Implementation of Social Economic Development Project: A Case of Jyambere Project

From Silk Road to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): A Comprehensive Analysis of Economic, Geopolitical, Socio-cultural and Environmental Landscapes of Pakistan

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a transformative infrastructure and economic development project that has garnered global attention. This research paper delves into the historical context of the Silk Road and its resurgence through the CPEC, examining the geopolitical, economic, and socio-cultural implications. CPEC's potential is undeniable, offering economic growth, job creation, and regional connectivity. However, it is not without its complexities, including security issues, political opposition, and environmental impact. The paper concludes by emphasizing that addressing these challenges, promoting transparency, and adhering to sustainable practices are essential to unlock CPEC's full potential and contribute to economic prosperity and regional stability. CPEC's journey from the past to the future symbolizes the enduring power of collaboration, offering valuable lessons for international development and connectivity initiatives. Through a multidisciplinary approach, this paper explores the origins, motivations, challenges, and opportunities associated with the CPEC, shedding light on its potential to reshape regional dynamics and global trade.

Os Efeitos dos Padrões de Corrupção Administrativa no Processo de Desenvolvimento

Objective: Identifying the relationship between administrative corruption and development in the Arab world and Iraq. Theoretical framework: The study contributed to defining the relationship of corruption to development in the Arab world. As for the second axis, it talks about the impact of administrative corruption and its patterns on development efforts in Iraq. As for the third axis, it will be about the reasons for the failure or faltering of the development model in Iraq. Method: We shed light on the concept of corruption, its manifestations, its causes, effects and impactful repercussions, then we look at Iraq's experience in administrative corruption, trying to shed light on the characteristics and dimensions of this experience and the negative effects resulting from it, then we come to develop the most prominent solutions and objective treatments to reduce the impact of this phenomenon on human societies. Results and conclusion: Administrative and financial corruption is an old phenomenon that has afflicted the administrative apparatus in Iraq since the establishment of the Iraqi government in the twenties of the last century. Weak political will to combat corruption, as members of Parliament are prevented from disclosing their income and sources. Implications of the research: Corruption leads to weak investment and the flight of funds outside the country at a time when these funds were supposed to be used to establish economic development projects that serve citizens by providing job opportunities. Originality/value: Developing educational and cultural curricula through various media to create a culture of integrity and preservation of public money through a long-term strategy for the purpose of achieving loyalty and belonging between the individual and the state, as the law is not the only deterrent to corruption, but rather there must be a culture of integrity and preservation of public money.

Towards ecosystem-based management in Chinese coastal areas: Judgement criteria for water-passable structure based on permeability

China is actively building intelligent oceans to develop the marine economy and protect the ecological environment. Over the past 30 years, China has developed a large number of marine projects for economic development, such as sea reclamation, the establishment of water-passable or water-impassable jetties, dykes, and approach bridges. To reduce the impact on marine hydrodynamics and the ecological environment, China has banned most of its sea-enclosing activities, and water-passable structures are more and more developed and applied in practical projects in China. However, there are no clear judgment criteria for the definition of water-passable structures, and there is a lack of reference for the criteria in the management and development of water-passable structures. This has led to mismanagement, such as the fact that sea enclosures that have a subtle permeability but have a significant impact on the marine environment have been judged to be water-passable structures, which has harmed the marine ecosystem. At the same time, the foundation of the intelligent ocean includes comprehensive access to information on sea-related activities (ocean management, resource development, ecological civilization construction, etc.), and the lack of uniform determination standards makes the information on offshore structures mixed and makes it impossible to establish a standardized management system, which is not conducive to the further development of the intelligent ocean. To put forward the judgment criteria of water-passable structures, this paper establishes a conceptualized hydrodynamic model of linear shaped structures offshore China by analyzing actual data from a survey. According to the simulation results, in typical cases, based on the principle of ecological priority and strict control, this study suggests that linear shaped structures with a permeability greater than or equal to 70% should be recognized as water-passable linear shaped structures, and those with permeability less than 70% should be recognized as water-impassable linear shaped structures. The judgment criteria of water-passable linear shaped structures from the perspective of permeability can help the development and management of water-passable structures in Chinese coastal areas (e.g., sea area use demonstration) to be more accurately carried out, to protect the marine ecological environment and to realize sustainable development. At the same time, it provides a reference basis for China to further build a unified management method for marine structures and promotes the construction of the Chinese intelligent ocean.

ІННОВАЦІЙНІ НАПРЯМКИ УПРАВЛІННЯ ЕКОЛОГІЧНИМ ТУРИЗМОМ В УКРАЇНІ В КОНТЕКСТІ СТАЛОГО РОЗВИТКУ

The article examines modern approaches to ecological tourism as a complex management system, which includes environmental educational and educational activities among participants. The main task of this model is to achieve economic goals while simultaneously preserving nature and cultural values for future generations. The article examines how economic, environmental, social and political aspects have contributed to the rapid progress of ecotourism. It was discussed how ecotourism can become a means not only for economic growth, but also for the preservation of the ecosystem and cultural heritage. Much attention is paid to the importance of applying the latest management approaches, infrastructure development and conducting educational programs for communities. The importance of establishing ecological routes with proper information and safe infrastructure is highlighted, as well as the formation of clear rules for tourists. The role of monitoring and control over compliance with environmental norms for the adaptation of tourist activities is revealed. The importance of local population participation in ecotourism projects for economic development and raising environmental awareness is emphasized. Ecotourism is presented as a tool for the protection of nature and culture, while offering ways of social and economic progress. International experience in the field of ecotourism is also mentioned, showing its impact on local communities, regional economies and the environment. Based on this experience, recommendations are offered for adapting global best practices to local conditions to create a sustainable ecotourism environment. The conclusions call for an integrated approach to the development of ecotourism, which requires the joint actions of government, business, local communities and international organizations. The article emphasizes the importance of creating an effective ecotourism management system that provides a balance between the needs of tourists, environmental protection, and economic interests of regions. The need to involve the public and the private sector in the development and implementation of projects in the field of ecotourism is also emphasized.

The Impact of the Economic Development Project of AGAPE Human Development Foundation Inc. to the People of Zamboanga City, Philippines

The Impact of the Economic Development Project of AGAPE Human Development Foundation Inc. to the People of Zamboanga City, Philippines

Влияние санкционных ограничений на структуру и динамику экономики Северного Кавказа

Growing geopolitical tensions and sanctions imposed against our country have determined the need for structural changes in the domestic economy. In this regard, the task of ensuring sustainable development of regional economic systems begins to play a special role. The article analyzes the impact of sanctions restrictions on the structure and dynamics of the economy of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) in order to assess the potential and prospects for the development of the region’s economy in the current conditions, as well as to identify possible directions for adjusting regional strategic planning documents. The work focuses on the analysis of the gross regional product (GRP), whose sectoral composition and dynamics characterize the structure and dynamics of the regional economy, as well as the level of regional investment in fixed capital, as an indicator that determines the potential for financing projects for the development of the regional economic system. The study identified the most significant industries for the economy of the North Caucasus Federal District, assessed their current state and made a forecast of their development under sanctions. It is concluded that the current economic dynamics of the North Caucasus Federal District are insufficient to bring the region to the level of sustainable economic development. A study of the region’s financial condition was conducted and its potential for financing economic development projects was assessed. It is shown that the region is subsidized, while the level of debt in the region for both business and the population is constantly growing. Key ways to solve the existing problems of insufficient funding have been outlined. In particular, it was proposed to create a special regional development fund that would finance the most promising projects in priority sectors of the economy, as well as expand the existing practice of public-private partnerships. The forecast for the volume of investments in fixed assets showed their expected growth in the near future (if current trends continue).

Main Factors of Uneven Development among Russian Regions

The article explores the primary factors contributing to the uneven social development of regions in Russia, providing a general classification. It pays particular attention to the influence of historical, cultural-civilisational, and geopolitical factors on the development and modernisation of Russian regions. This includes regional traditions, ethno-social and cultural specificities, and an analysis of how all these factors impact regional dynamics.
 The study illustrates that disparities, significant differences, and inequalities in the socio-economic development of Russia's regions are a result of the combination and interaction of multiple factors that require consideration when formulating and implementing regional policies. The interaction of different factors in each specific case creates key and acute social problems and risks for that region. Therefore, regional authorities and active local community groups must focus on timely responses to prevent the radicalisation and politicisation of these problems, preventing them from escalating into social-political conflicts.
 Among such problems and associated risks are issues of social inequality perceived by local residents as fundamentally unjust. These include challenges related to the lack of access for many inhabitants to quality healthcare and education, as well as ecological problems. Additionally, concerns arise regarding interethnic relations, particularly between local populations and migrants arriving from other states, along with demographic challenges.
 However, the concerted efforts of regional authorities and concerned citizen groups at the grassroots level alone cannot entirely solve the key problems of a region. This demands close cooperation and the pooling of efforts from local communities, regional, and central authorities. Presently, in Russia, such collaboration and concerted efforts across different levels are implemented only fragmentarily and far from being adequate. Consequently, it is concluded that to ensure social stability in Russian regions, regional and local authorities need to consider the interests of local communities and their initiatives for development. This includes areas such as culture, preserving and developing local traditions, education, regional studies, local and regional identity, historical memory, and ecology.
 Moreover, it is crucial to prevent the gross destruction of natural and social environments and the predatory use of natural and human resources in Russian regions by large corporations, holdings, and financial structures. The author concludes that while devising and implementing any projects for socio-political and economic development, it's essential to consider both the general civilisational specifics of Russia and the peculiarities of development within regional and local communities. Ignoring these aspects could lead to irreversible damage to the social environment and the degradation of fundamental social, cultural, and value structures within Russian society.

Effects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on the Economies of China and Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is an infrastructure and economic development project initiated by China in Pakistan in 2013. The project aims to connect China's western province of Xinjiang to the Pakistani port of Gwadar through a network of roads, railways, pipelines, and power plants. The CPEC is expected to bring several benefits to both China and Pakistan, including expanding China's economic and geopolitical influence in the region and addressing Pakistan's chronic infrastructure deficits, creating new jobs, and attracting foreign investment. The CPEC can also help to alleviate China's domestic overcapacity issues and reduce its dependence on the South China Sea for its energy imports. Moreover, it can improve Pakistan's regional and global connectivity and enhance its geopolitical importance as a gateway to South Asia and the Middle East. However, the success of the CPEC will depend on various factors, including political stability, security, and effective implementation of the project. Overall, the CPEC represents a win-win scenario for China and Pakistan, as it can provide economic benefits to both countries while promoting regional connectivity and integration.

Human resources practices as a mechanism for improving performance within public institutions and state-owned enterprises in Morocco

In an economic environment marked by rapid change, characterized by factors such as globalization and increasing demands from stakeholders and clients, public institutions and state-owned enterprises have become significant players through their multiple interventions in providing public services to citizens and businesses, in implementing structuring projects for economic and social development, and in promoting investment. This paper aims to examine the correlation between human resource management and employee performance within Moroccan public institutions and state-owned enterprises to understand how these organizations should manage their human capital to enhance their performance. The sample consists of 67 top executives of Moroccan entities operating in various sectors. Data were collected through a self-administered questionnaire completed by the participants. Partial least squares (PLS) was used to estimate structural equation models and analyze causal relationships between variables. SmartPLS 4 software was employed for model analysis. The findings reveal a positive and significant impact of training, selective recruitment, digital transformation, and performance-based compensation on employee performance improvement. The results indicate that the T-values are 3.126, 2.870, 2.178, and 2.406, respectively. Regarding the Q² value, it stands at 0.899, confirming the model’s predictive capability. The GoF coefficient is 0.851, affirming the overall validity of the model. However, it was observed that there is no significant link between job security and performance, as the T-values did not exceed the threshold of 1.64. This study suggests adopting changes in HRM practices to enhance the organizational performance of public institutions and state-owned enterprises.

CROWDFUNDING – AN INNOVATIVE METHOD OF FINANCING IN UKRAINE

The research identified innovative characteristics of crowdfunding, which make it an effective way of financing projects of social and economic development. It is hypothesized that the most effective methods of financing modern innovations are related to the environment of their functioning – the modern information and communication space represented by the Internet and social networks. This study reveals the essence of the concept of crowdfunding as an alternative way of financing creative ideas, startups, innovations, the latest technologies, socially significant projects in the conditions of the development of computerization and informatization. The subjects of this financing instrument are identified, and the essence of the online platforms, which are used to attract monetary allocations for the financing of the projects presented on them, is determined. The advantages for individual investors regarding investing money through crowdfunding are summarized. Approaches to understanding the essence of crowdfunding have been found. The criteria for evaluating the level of crowdfunding development are proposed: the degree and timeliness of information provision, the level of activity, the diversification of types of platforms, the interaction of the resource with the banking sector, the level of public awareness, the level of state influence. The relationship and the difference between crowdfunding and crowdsourcing are defined. Crowdfunding platforms internationalize projects and increase their chances of successful implementation. The state regulatory policy regarding crowdfunding in various states was analyzed and its financial management in Ukraine was proposed. It was established that, under the conditions of insufficient financial resources, crowdfunding is a high-quality alternative to standard investment methods, and the main environment of the subjects is medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine. The factors hindering the development of an alternative method of financing in Ukraine are outlined, as well as recommendations are provided for its further functioning in our country.

HILFSWERK INTERNATIONAL: THE ROLE OF AN NGO AT THE INTERFACE BETWEEN SCIENCE, SOCIETY, AND GOVERNMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA

Relevance. Over the last decades, distinct models, strategies, and funding forms have become available for international projects in various sectors. On the academic plane, and particularly in the fields of environmental science and sustainability, project applicants usually face the choice between purely scientific grants or those dedicated, e.g., to social or business development. Very often and paradoxically, this discrepancy has to be overcome already at the stage of a grant application, as many donors require a clear outline of the expected impact of a respective project reaching out to other sectors of application. In this article, we present the Central Asia Mission of the NGO Hilfswerk International and its essential beneficial role for international project implementation between Europe and Central Asia at the interface between science, society, and governments. Its mode of operation over more than 15 years is outlined by the five consecutive economic development projects CANDY I–V and the thereupon-based Erasmus+ projects HECAFS and AgroDev targeting capacity building in higher education systems. All seven projects had a strong focus on agriculture and food security but exemplarily stand for Hilfswerk International's flexible expertise adjustable to other crucial thematics of the near future – i.e., climate change, environmental pollution, water security, etc.

Management and Development of Paddy Ecosystem Services in Hongthai, Vietnam by Using SWOT Analysis Method

With an increase in the world population, the global demand for tourism development is rising, promoting the increased utilization of natural ecosystem services. The agricultural ecosystem, particularly the rice paddy ecosystem, is paramount in socio-economic and tourism development for developing countries. The aim of this study is to find solutions for management and development of paddy ecosystem services towards sustainable ecotourism development in poor and vulnerable areas in developing countries. This study assessed the management and development of paddy ecosystem services in Hongthai, Vietnam via the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) method. The results indicate that despite the high potentialities of paddy ecosystem services, much more investigation is required for the management and development of these services for tourism development. The intricate and disjoined mountainous topography of Hongthai poses challenges to the establishment of infrastructure networks and economic advancement. This results in elevated travel expenses for tourists, with limited return on investment, thereby impeding Hongthai's ability to compete with tourist destinations in neighboring provinces. The results provide a theoretical and practical basis for the process of evaluating the effectiveness of investment programs and projects for economic and social development and ecotourism activities in Hongthai, Vietnam. Also, the SWOT results recommend and orient local people's agricultural development activities towards improving the efficiency of exploitation of available ecosystem services. The findings of this study may be useful for formulating effective management strategies at different scales.

Development as Structural Violence in Ethiopia

Abstract Development should not be done in a way that endangers the environment, human life, or non-human life that depends on it. However, in Ethiopia, economic development was carried out with little or no concern for the environment or indigenous and minority groups whose livelihoods directly depended on natural resources. Based on an examination of primary and secondary sources through the lens of structural violence theory, this article argues that Ethiopia’s economic growth was not equitable and happened at the expense of the country’s natural resources. Using the Negede Woyto of Lake Tana as a case study, this paper investigated how economic development projects in Ethiopia impacted minority communities. The conclusion reached was that the eprdf-led government actively worked to inflict structural violence on minority groups in the Lake Tana region, using sustainable economic development as a justification.

DESIGN THINKING IN THE VISUALIZATION OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN THE AGRARIAN SPHERE: SCIENCE AND ART

The article represents an attempt to comprehend the possibilities of applying general methodological principles of design thinking in the process of planning and developing innovative economic development projects in the agricultural sector. The relations of design and visualization as the science and art processes in the economy are outlined. It is noted that smart agriculture uses advanced technologies such as sensors, devices, machines and information technology, robots, GPS technologies, which will allow farms to be more profitable, efficient, safe, and environmentally friendly. The authors claim that the goal of digitalization of agriculture is to achieve a significant increase in the efficiency and sustainability of its functioning through fundamental changes in the quality of management of both technological processes and decision-making processes at all levels of the hierarchy, based on modern production methods, and the further use of information about the state of controlled elements and subsystems, as well as states of the economic environment of agriculture. Based on a study of the use of visualization technologies within the framework of the philosophy of design thinking, it is shown that the introduction of digital technologies in the agro-industrial complex will dramatically increase labor productivity and reduce risks in agriculture. In modern conditions of intense competition, digitalization based on such projects will give the agricultural sector of any country (which is especially important for developing countries) great competitive advantages.

Greening the BRI countries through economic and political reforms.

Preserving the environment and promoting sustainable development are essential objectives for a state aimed at improving the standard of living for present and future generations. The depletion of natural resources and environmental degradation are serious concerns for policymakers worldwide. However, to fulfill its role effectively, a state must have strong institutional capacity. Studies have shown that inadequate governance and weak institutional quality are associated with environmental degradation, lower economic growth, unfavorable development outcomes, and increased inequality. Economic and political reforms are necessary to overcome these issues, while the concept of institutional reforms to save the environment is novel and hardly discussed in the earlier literature, especially in the context of BRI countries. So, this study explores the impact of economic and political reforms on the environment by applying a difference-in-differences approach to the data of 45 BRI economies from 2000 to 2022. The empirical findings reveal a negative relationship between economic and political reforms on ecological footprints, emphasizing the need for institutional reform to preserve the environment in the BRI region. Institutional reforms have a significant contribution to environmental sustainability by fostering better governance, political stability, and an environment conducive to reforms-driven decision-making. These reforms can help address the environmental challenges associated with large-scale infrastructure and economic development projects like the BRI, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable future.

Network Power or Power-Penetrated Network?

Problem, research strategy, and findings Communicative planners have long recognized the importance of communication networks for planning outcomes. However, the description of such networks has remained largely static, portraying a network as either positive (collaborative) or negative (power penetrated), which limits the understanding of communication patterns and power dynamics throughout the planning process. An incomplete understanding of complex communication patterns also hinders the ability of planners to mediate between stakeholders in the communication process to achieve beneficial outcomes. Using social network analysis, we filled this research gap by analyzing an entire collection of email exchanges involving key decision makers on an economic development project in Tallahassee (FL) for 6 years. We conclude that this actual communication network fell short of the ideal set by planners: a collaborative network with diverse and interdependent actors engaged in authentic dialogue. Importantly, the actual pattern swayed further away from this ideal when confronted with major financial decisions, suggesting that the weight of certain decisions alters communication networks. We also found that city commissioners were the most engaged actors, indicating that political power established through the electoral process played a more significant role in the communication network. Planners, on the contrary, played a limited bridging role. Takeaway for practice Planners must pay closer attention to the communication network and dynamics in the planning and policy implementation process and more effectively play the role of a critical friend to help form truly collaborative networks. The use of social network analysis can help reveal the structure of the network and the position of key actors in real time and guide the deliberate actions of planners. In addition, institutional procedures, such as email transparency, are needed to alleviate the informational power imbalance.

From Struggle to Success: The Osoyoos Indian Band’s Journey into Agritourism and Economic Prosperity

Summary In the province of British Columbia, Canada, the Osoyoos Indian Band (OIB) employs agritourism, specifically wine tourism, to serve their community economically and socially. Once on the verge of bankruptcy, they are now one of the wealthiest First Nations in the country, and their participation in the wine industry has played a critical role in this transformation. The OIB has been involved in the wine industry for over three decades. Beginning in 1968 with only 200 acres of vineyard, they currently own and operate one of the largest vineyards in the Okanagan Valley, and an award-winning winery Nk’Mip Cellars – the first Indigenous-owned and operated winery in the world. The winery was part of a broader development plan called the Nk’Mip Project. The project encompassed various planned developments, including the Nk’Mip Desert Cultural Centre which acts as a value-added attraction for those tourists visiting the winery and its vineyards. Economic self-sufficiency through economic development projects is the core belief of the OIB. Chief Louie says that their band has always had a business culture and they have continued to evolve. These developments have allowed the OIB to diversify its revenue streams, protect its lands, and promote its culture and history. Information © The Authors 2023

How many people will live in poverty because of climate change? A macro-level projection analysis to 2070

Fossil fuel-based economic development both causes climate change and contributes to poverty alleviation, creating tensions across societal efforts to maintain growth, limit climate damage, and improve human development. While many studies explore key aspects of this dilemma, few direct attention to the pathways from climate change through socioeconomic development to the future of poverty. We build on projections of global temperature change (representative concentration pathways) and country-specific economic development (economic growth and income distribution across the shared socioeconomic pathways) to model how climate change may affect future poverty with the International Futures (IFs) model, projecting poverty across income thresholds for 175 countries through 2070. Central tendency scenarios with climate effects compared with scenarios that do not model climate change show that climate change-attributable extreme poverty will grow to 25 million people by 2030 (range: 18 to 30), 40 million by 2050 (range: 9 to 78), and 32 million by 2070 (range: 4 to 130) though overall levels of global poverty decline. If climatic tipping points are passed, the climate-attributable extreme poverty grows to 57 million people by 2030 (range: 40–72), 78 million by 2050 (range: 18–193), and 56 million by 2070 (range: 7–306). To mitigate baseline effects of climate change on extreme poverty, an improvement of global income inequality of 10% is required (range: 5–15%).