Влияние санкционных ограничений на структуру и динамику экономики Северного Кавказа

Abstract

Growing geopolitical tensions and sanctions imposed against our country have determined the need for structural changes in the domestic economy. In this regard, the task of ensuring sustainable development of regional economic systems begins to play a special role. The article analyzes the impact of sanctions restrictions on the structure and dynamics of the economy of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) in order to assess the potential and prospects for the development of the region’s economy in the current conditions, as well as to identify possible directions for adjusting regional strategic planning documents. The work focuses on the analysis of the gross regional product (GRP), whose sectoral composition and dynamics characterize the structure and dynamics of the regional economy, as well as the level of regional investment in fixed capital, as an indicator that determines the potential for financing projects for the development of the regional economic system. The study identified the most significant industries for the economy of the North Caucasus Federal District, assessed their current state and made a forecast of their development under sanctions. It is concluded that the current economic dynamics of the North Caucasus Federal District are insufficient to bring the region to the level of sustainable economic development. A study of the region’s financial condition was conducted and its potential for financing economic development projects was assessed. It is shown that the region is subsidized, while the level of debt in the region for both business and the population is constantly growing. Key ways to solve the existing problems of insufficient funding have been outlined. In particular, it was proposed to create a special regional development fund that would finance the most promising projects in priority sectors of the economy, as well as expand the existing practice of public-private partnerships. The forecast for the volume of investments in fixed assets showed their expected growth in the near future (if current trends continue).