Climate Change Projections Research Articles

Evaluating land use and climate change impacts on Ravi river flows using GIS and hydrological modeling approach

The study investigates the interplay of land use dynamics and climate change on the hydrological regime of the Ravi River using a comprehensive approach integrating Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and hydrological modeling at the catchment scale. Employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, simulations were conducted to evaluate the hydrological response of the Ravi River to both current conditions and projected future scenarios of land use and climate change. This study differs from previous ones by simulating future land use and climate scenarios, offering a solid framework for understanding their impact on river flow dynamics. Model calibration and validation were performed for distinct periods (1999–2002 and 2003–2005), yielding satisfactory performance indicators (NSE, R2, PBIAS = 0.85, 0.83, and 10.01 in calibration and 0.87, 0.89, and 7.2 in validation). Through supervised classification techniques on Landsat imagery and TerrSet modeling, current and future land use maps were generated, revealing a notable increase in built-up areas from 1990 to 2020 and projections indicating further expansion by 31.7% from 2020 to 2100. Climate change projections under different socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) were derived for precipitation and temperature, with statistical downscaling applied using the CMhyd model. Results suggest substantial increases in precipitation (10.9 − 14.9%) and temperature (12.2 − 15.9%) across the SSP scenarios by the end of the century. Two scenarios, considering future climate conditions with current and future land use patterns, were analyzed to understand their combined impact on hydrological responses. In both scenarios, inflows to the Ravi River are projected to rise significantly (19.4 − 28.4%) from 2016 to 2100, indicating a considerable alteration in seasonal flow patterns. Additionally, historical data indicate a concerning trend of annual groundwater depth decline (0.8 m/year) from 1996 to 2020, attributed to land use and climate changes. The findings underscore the urgency for planners and managers to incorporate climate and land cover considerations into their strategies, given the potential implications for water resource management and environmental sustainability.

Temperature increase may not necessarily penalize future yields of three major crops in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Future food production is at risk due to climate change, particularly in arid regions with limited water resources and extensive irrigated agriculture. This study utilized the DSSAT model in conjunction with downscaled data from 21 global climate models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) to assess the impact of projected climate change on irrigated crop phenology, yield, and evapotranspiration (ETc) of cotton, maize, and winter wheat in the Shihezi region of Xinjiang, China. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation in the region were expected to increase gradually from 2021 to 2100. Climate change has resulted in earlier anthesis and physiological maturity of all three crops. Future climatic conditions could reduce maize yields to 16.02 %. Conversely, the yields of cotton and winter wheat increased, with cotton yields rising by 1.23–10.94 % and winter wheat yields by 3.19–14.07 %. Additionally, ETc for cotton, maize, and winter wheat could rise in the future. The irrigation water demands could increase by 41.1–96.4 mm for cotton and 27.3–37.9 mm for maize, while the demand for winter wheat could decrease by 0.5–36.2 mm. Warming was significantly correlated with the changes in the yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of cotton, maize, and winter wheat. The temperature increases of +0.5°C to +3.0°C (relative to baseline) at 0.5°C intervals were analyzed to evaluate their effects on yield and WUE. The yields varied from −0.93 % to 6.15 % for cotton, −43.42 % to −7.99 % for maize, and 4.28–9.92 % for winter wheat. The WUE changes ranged from −29.03 % to −1.08 % for cotton, −43.06 % to −7.66 % for maize, and 0.69–3.47 % for winter wheat. Contrary to the common belief that rising temperatures generally harm crop yields, our study suggests that temperature fluctuations may benefit certain crops in specific regions. These results could provide theoretical guidance for implementing adaptive measures to future climate change in regions with conditions similar to Shihezi, Xinjiang, China, to ensure crop security and sustainable water management.

One century of carbon dynamics in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under various management strategies and climate change projections

Partial cutting has lower canopy removal intensities than clearcutting and has been proposed as an alternative harvesting approach to enhance ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage. However, the ideal partial cutting/clearcutting proportion that should be applied to managed areas of the eastern Canadian boreal forest to enhance long-term carbon sequestration and storage at the landscape scale remains uncertain. Our study projected carbon dynamics over 100 years (2010–2110) under a portfolio of management strategies and future climate scenarios within three boreal forest management units in Quebec, Canada, distributed along an east–west gradient. To model future carbon dynamics, we used LANDIS-II, its Forest Carbon Succession extension, and several extensions that account for natural disturbances in the boreal forest (wind, fire, spruce budworm). We simulated the effects of several management strategies on carbon dynamics, including a business-as-usual strategy (clearcutting applied to more than 95 % of the annually managed area), and compared these projections against a no-harvest natural dynamics scenario. We projected an overall increase in total ecosystem carbon storage, mostly because of increased productivity and broadleaf presence under limited climate change. The drier Western region under climate scenario RCP8.5 was an exception, as stocks decreased after 2090 because of the direct negative effects of extreme climate change on coniferous species’ productivity. Under the natural dynamic scenario, our simulations suggest that the Quebec Forest in the Central and Western regions may act as a carbon sink, despite high fire-related carbon emissions, particularly under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Conversely, the eastern region periodically switched from carbon sink to source following SBW outbreaks, thus being a weak sink over the simulation period. Applying partial cutting to over 50 % of the managed forest area effectively mitigated the negative impacts of climate change on carbon balance, reducing differences in stand composition and carbon storage between naturally dynamic forests and those managed for timber. In contrast, clearcutting-based scenarios, including the business-as-usual approach, substantially reduced total ecosystem carbon storage— by approximately double (10 tC ha−1 yr−1) compared to partial cutting scenarios (<5 tC ha−1 yr−1). Clearcutting led to higher heterotrophic respiration due to the proliferation of fast-decomposing broadleaves, resulting in lower carbon accumulation compared to partial cuts. Our findings underscore the importance of balancing canopy removal intensities to increase carbon sequestration and storage while preserving other ecosystem qualities under climate change.

A dataset of high-resolution climate change projections over South America with bias correction

Accurate and detailed datasets are crucial for assessing climate change impacts. Regional climate models provide high-resolution simulations and are key tools but often exhibit systematic biases. Therefore, this paper presents a dataset derived from bias-corrected Eta regional model simulations and projections driven by four global CMIP5 models. The correction applied to daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and 2-m air temperature, was conducted on a 0.2° x 0.2° grid over South America. The dataset covers two periods: 1976-2005 (baseline) and 2006-2099 (future) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Empirical quantile mapping was used to adjust the Eta model outputs to better match observational data. This method modified the accumulated probability curves of the Eta model outputs to align with observational curves for both baseline and future climates. Two observational datasets were used for correction and evaluation. The new dataset shows that bias correction significantly reduced the errors in the Eta simulations, especially for the frequent values of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and 2-m temperature, and also corrected the annual cycle and frequency distribution of these variables, approaching the observations. The pattern of extreme precipitation indices from the bias-corrected Eta dataset also reduced error. Bias correction was applied to future projections. The comparison against the raw Eta dataset showed that the trends of changes were preserved, but in general, the peaks of the changes were smoothed. As in the raw Eta dataset, the RCP8.5 scenario showed a higher change rate than RCP4.5. This work also revealed the large uncertainty of the observational dataset; some of the remaining errors after the bias correction were mostly due to differences between the two correction and evaluation observational datasets. The described dataset is freely available from the CNPq LattesData repository at the following link: https://doi.org/10.57810/lattesdata/WAVGSL.

Mapping the potential habitat suitability and opportunities of bush encroacher species in Southern Africa: a case study of the SteamBioAfrica project

Senegalia mellifera (Benth) Seigler &amp; Ebinger., Dichrostachys cinerea (L.) Wight &amp; Arn. and Terminalia sericea Burch. Ex DC., are three important bush encroacher species that contribute to the well-known ecological process named “thicketization” in Southern Africa. This issue has persisted for many years, impacting species distribution, plant communities, soil, and fauna dynamics. According to climate change projections, Southern Africa is expected to become drier and warmer in future scenarios, creating favourable conditions for proliferation of bush encroacher species. MaxEnt is a general-purpose machine learning method widely utilized in various ecological and biological scenarios to predict the potential suitable habitat of species. This is achieved by incorporating presence-only occurrence records and bioclimatic, and topographic variables. The analysis was performed in a Geographic Information System based on the current and future suitable areas for the respective Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios according to INM-CM5-0, UK-ESM1-0-LL and MPIES-M1-2-HR climate models. This was done to assess the potential effects of climate change on the distribution patterns of bush encroacher species. Model performance was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC), with 0.836, 0.822 and 0.738 as results to Terminalia sericea, Dichrostachys cinerea and Senegalia mellifera respectively. The current results show that Senegalia mellifera presents a habitat suitability of 56% (1,460,353 km²) of the total area, while Terminalia sericea and Dichrostachys cinerea have suitability over 37.9% (996,168 km²) and 43.9% (1,154,645 km²) of the area, respectively. These findings indicate that precipitation and temperature variables are the most important factors in explaining the spatial distribution of the bush encroacher species, predicting a future increase between 8–29.4%, 2.8–24%, and 3–24.2% for Senegalia mellifera, Terminalia sericea, and Dichrostachys cinerea respectively. Furthermore, each species has its own set of important variables and different ecological behaviour patterns. These results imply that an improved understanding of the response of woody species to a changing climate is important for managing bush encroachment in savanna ecosystems. Based on our analysis, Senegalia mellifera is currently suitable in 56% of the total area; while 43.9% of the total area is suitable for Dichrostachys cinerea, and 37.87% of the total area is currently suitable for Terminalia sericea. In the future scenarios, the habitat suitability increases for all three species compared to the current state. The unsuitable areas decrease in all the proposed scenarios with respect to the present, predicting a shrub expansion in the future throughout southern Africa. Furthermore, our results imply that Senegalia mellifera is the most potentially affected by bush encroachment in future changes, with a larger distribution area in future scenarios. These findings are supported by many studies, which indicate the probable increase of woody cover and loss of grasslands. Temperature and precipitation patterns are the main drivers behind the distribution of these bush encroachers, increasing or decreasing the competitiveness of these species according to these variables and their phenotypic plasticity. The increase in habitat suitability occurs throughout the case study, but there is a clear trend of shrub expansion towards the south of the case study. The change maps show a pattern of shrub movement towards South Africa and Botswana. This would fit with climate predictions for South Africa, which predict a decrease in rainfall in the east and north of the country, being more suitable for shrub competitive species.

Factors affecting early red oak (Quercus rubra L.) regeneration near its northern distribution limit in Quebec

Red oak is an important species within the North American landscape, with climate change projections indicating a potential northward shift in its distribution. However, understanding the factors influencing its regeneration success at the northern limit remains limited. Site conditions and seed provenance adaptability may play critical roles. To bridge this knowledge gap, we conducted a seed transfer study in two northern red oak stands in Quebec. We firstly investigated stand regeneration history through dendrochronological characterization. Then, we monitored the survival and growth of saplings for four red oak provenances across a south-to-north gradient in field and greenhouse settings, with varying soil nutrient levels due to fertilization, and with or without protection from large herbivores. Results indicated that stands have similar age structures with red oak establishment coinciding with the last major fire disturbance in the early 1920s. However, tree species composition and density differed, suggesting differences in fire disturbance regime or ecological succession status prior to fire. Site had the largest influence on red oak regeneration, with the highest tree density and soil water availability site exhibiting a 29% higher survival rate. Protection against large herbivores also significantly impacted red oak seedling performance, leading to a 16% higher survival rate. Germination, survival and growth also significantly differed between provenances. The local (northernmost) provenance exhibited the poorest overall performance with 28 to 42% lower germination, survival and growth rates, while the two southernmost provenances exhibited superior germination and sprout survival. An increase in soil nutrient availability was beneficial to red oak in the greenhouse, but only marginally benefited survival and growth in the field, suggesting that this factor is of less importance than other factors (e.g., water and light availability) for red oak early regeneration. The findings of this study suggest that silvicultural efforts to favor red oak should focus on site and provenance selection, and that water availability is currently limiting red oak regeneration success at acorn and early seedling life stages (i.e., 1 year old seedlings) near its northern distribution limit.

Predicting the potential distribution of Arisaema heterophyllum in China under current and future climate change based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model

Climate change significantly affects the distribution of medicinal plants, necessitating accurate models to predict future shifts in their habitats. This study employed the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to predict the current and future distribution of Arisaema heterophyllum, a valuable perennial herb in traditional Chinese medicine, under two future climate scenarios: SSP 245 and SSP 585. Using 142 valid species occurrence records and critical environmental variables, we identified October precipitation, March precipitation, elevation and September precipitation as the major determinants of A. heterophyllum habitat suitability. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with an average Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.951, indicating the reliability of our findings. These results suggest a potential decrease in the total suitable habitat area for A. heterophyllum, with a noticeable shift toward higher altitudes and latitudes in response to climate change. This study highlighted the urgency of incorporating climate change projections into A. heterophyllum conservation strategies to mitigate the risk of resource depletion. Furthermore, our approach offers a robust framework for assessing the impacts of climate change on other medicinal plants, contributing valuable insights into their future conservation and sustainable use.

Establishing monarch butterfly overwintering sites for future climates: Abies religiosa upper altitudinal limit expansion by assisted migration

Climate change projections suggest a precarious future for the Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) as the suitable climatic habitat of its exclusive overwintering host Abies religiosa (oyamel, Sacred fir, a conifer endemic to Mexico) inside the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) is expected to disappear by 2090. Since the upper elevation limit of A. religiosa is approximately 3,500 m and the summits of mountains within the MBBR are ca. 3,550 m, we tested the feasibility of establishing A. religiosa at four locations outside its current geographic range in the MBBR, on a geographically close volcano, Nevado de Toluca at 4000 (timberline, an extreme site), 3,800, and 3,600 m (to test species range expansion upward in elevation), and at 3400 m (a reference site, slightly lower than the upper elevation limit of A. religiosa). Using existing shrubs as nurse plants to protect the seedlings from extreme temperatures, at each site we planted five to eight populations, originating between 3,100 and 3,500 m within the MBBR. After three growing seasons in the field (6 years after sowing), we found that: (a) survival and height increment declined steeply with test site elevation; (b) even at the highest sites (3,800 and 4,000 m), survival was acceptable, at 68 and 44%, respectively, although the growth was very poor at 4000 m; (c) populations responded similarly to transfer; (d) transfer effects were best accounted for by annual dryness index; (e) to compensate for the expected 2.3°C increase in mean annual temperature or 0.009 √°Cmm−1 increase of annual dryness index from the reference period (1961–1990) to the decade centered in 2060, it would be necessary to shift populations approximately 500 m to higher elevations; and (f) upward transfers to compensate for the 2.3°C increase in mean annual temperature are expected to result in height increment and survival that are approximately 47 and 21% lower, respectively, than values expected at zero transfer distance. We conclude that the establishment of A. religiosa at 3600 and 3,800 m is feasible and that planted stands could eventually serve as overwintering sites for the Monarch butterfly under projected future climates.

Sediment load assessments under climate change scenarios and a lack of integration between climatologists and environmental modelers

Increasing precipitation accelerates soil erosion and boosts sediment loads, especially in mountain catchments. Therefore, there is significant pressure to deliver plausible assessments of these phenomena on a local scale under future climate change scenarios. Such assessments are primarily drawn from a combination of climate change projections and environmental model simulations, usually performed by climatologists and environmental modelers independently. Our example shows that without communication from both groups the final results are ambiguous. Here, we estimate sediment loads delivered from a Carpathian catchment to a reservoir to illustrate how the choice of meteorological data, reference period, and model ensemble can affect final results. Differences in future loads could reach up to even 6000 tons of sediment per year. We suggest there must be a better integration between climatologists and environmental modelers, focusing on introducing multi-model ensembles targeting specific impacts to facilitate an informed choice on climate information.

Two Perspectives on Amplified Warming over Tropical Land Examined in CMIP6 Models

Abstract Climate change projections show amplified warming associated with dry conditions over tropical land. We compare two perspectives explaining this amplified warming: one based on tropical atmospheric dynamics and the other focusing on soil moisture and surface fluxes. We first compare the full spatiotemporal distribution of changes in key variables in the two perspectives under a quadrupling of CO2 using daily output from the CMIP6 simulations. Both perspectives center around the partitioning of the total energy/energy flux into the temperature and humidity components. We examine the contribution of this temperature/humidity partitioning in the base climate and its change under warming to rising temperatures by deriving a diagnostic linearized perturbation model that relates the magnitude of warming to 1) changes in the total energy/energy flux, 2) the base-climate temperature/humidity partitioning, and 3) changes in the partitioning under warming. We show that the spatiotemporal structure of warming in CMIP6 models is well predicted by the inverse of the base-climate partition factor, which we term the base-climate sensitivity: conditions that are drier in the base climate have a higher base-climate sensitivity and experience more warming. On top of this relationship, changes in the partition factor under intermediate (between wet and dry) surface conditions further enhance or dampen the warming. We discuss the mechanistic link between the two perspectives by illustrating the strong relationships between lower-tropospheric temperature lapse rates, a key variable for the atmospheric perspective, and surface fluxes, a key component of the land surface perspective. Significance Statement Understanding what conditions give rise to the largest magnitude of warming in response to rising CO2 concentrations is not only scientifically important but also critical from a climate impact standpoint. Two main perspectives, one focusing on atmospheric dynamics and the other focusing on land surface processes, have been proposed to explain the stronger warming associated with drier conditions in the tropics. Here, we compare and contrast these two perspectives. We demonstrate that amplified warming in CMIP6 models can largely be predicted from base-climate dryness alone in both perspectives but is further modified based on changes in the partitioning of energy between temperature and moisture. We highlight the spatiotemporal conditions where assumptions in the two perspectives hold and where deviations occur within CMIP6 climate models.

Exploring variability in climate change projections on the Nemunas River and Curonian Lagoon: coupled SWAT and SHYFEM modeling approach

Exploring variability in climate change projections on the Nemunas River and Curonian Lagoon: coupled SWAT and SHYFEM modeling approach

Assessing the separate contribution of the domain, RCM and GCM to the uncertainty in CORDEX simulations over the overlapped regions that include Jordan

AbstractThe Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) offers a framework for regional climate downscaling experiments over continental‐based domains that overlap; this allows for conducting multimodel analysis. However, a question is raised about the uncertainty due to domain selection. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of CORDEX simulations to the choices of domain, downscaling regional climate model (RCM) and driving global model (GCM) over a Middle East study region, including Jordan. Understanding these sensitivities helps assess simulation uncertainties and enhance regional climate change projections. Taylor diagrams and variance decomposition analyses were used to analyse seasonal temperature and precipitation climatologies. The results indicate that the domain contribution to variance is negligible, whereas the choice of GCM and RCM strongly influences simulations. Variance in temperature is significantly impacted by the driving model (GCM), whereas RCM has a higher influence on precipitation, which reflects their large‐scale versus local nature. The results of this study support the development of multidomain ensembles since projections produced by the same GCM–RCM model combination are consistent across different overlapping domains. On the other hand, this approach facilitates the consideration as well as a comprehensive quantification of the uncertainties arising from the utilization of multiple GCMs and RCMs within such an ensemble. This improves the reliability of regional climate information, thus facilitating the development of effective adaptation strategies and mitigation plans.

Enhanced generation of internal tides under global warming

A primary driver of deep-ocean mixing is breaking of internal tides generated via interactions of barotropic tides with topography. It is important to understand how the energy conversion from barotropic to internal tides responds to global warming. Here we address this question by applying a linear model of internal tide generation to coupled global climate model simulations under a high carbon emission scenario. The energy conversion to high-mode internal tides is projected to rise by about 8% by the end of the 21st century, whereas the energy conversion to low-mode internal tides remains nearly unchanged. The intensified near-bottom stratification under global warming increases energy conversion into both low and high-mode internal tides. In contrast, the intensified depth-averaged stratification reduces the modal horizontal wavenumber of internal tides, leading to increased (decreased) energy conversion into high (low)- mode internal tides. Our findings imply stronger mixing over rough topography under global warming, which should be properly parameterized in climate models for more accurate projections of future climate changes.

Risk Assessment Protocol for Existing Bridge Infrastructure Considering Climate Change

The escalating impact of climate change on global weather patterns threatens the functionality and resilience of infrastructure systems. This paper presents a rigorous risk assessment protocol tailored to existing bridge infrastructure, integrating climate change projections, structural integrity, and socioeconomic factors. The protocol’s application involves five sequential steps: selecting a bridge, disassembling the structure into components, calculating utilization factors for design and projected temperatures, evaluating severity factors encompassing structural and socioeconomic aspects, and ultimately determining an overall risk rating. To demonstrate the protocol’s effectiveness, a case study was conducted on the Westminster Drive Underpass in London, Ontario. This study shows how the protocol systematically evaluates the vulnerability of each bridge component to projected temperatures under the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 model. The protocol provides a holistic risk assessment by incorporating both the structural response and socioeconomic implications of failure. The results rank the bridge’s risk level and highlight the urgency of intervention. The protocol emerges as a robust tool for decision-makers, practitioners, and engineers, offering a comprehensive approach to strengthen bridge infrastructure against the challenges of climate change.

Climate Change Projections for Stroke Incidence in Taiwan: Impact of 2°C and 4°C Global Warming Level.

This study aimed to establish the exposure-lag-response effect between daily maximum temperature and stroke-related emergency department visits and to project heat-induced stroke impacts under global warming levels (GWL) of 2°C and 4°C. Stroke-related emergency department visits in Taiwan from 2001 to 2020 were identified using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study population consisted of 1,100,074 initial stroke cases matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke controls. We employed Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) in a case-crossover study to investigate the association between temperature and stroke. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models with a Poisson function were used to correlate high-temperature exposure with annual stroke incidence rates. Projections were made under two global warming scenarios, GWL 2.0°C and 4.0°C, using Coupled General Circulation Model (GCMs). Baseline data from 1995 to 2014 were transformed for spatial distribution at the township level. Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was performed using Quantum GIS 3.2.0 software. DLNM exposure-lag-response effect revealed that daily maximum temperature exceeding 34°C significantly increased the risk of stroke-related emergency department visits, particularly for ischemic stroke. Under the 2°C GWL scenario, the frequency of days with temperatures surpassing 34°C is projected to rise substantially by the median year of 2042, with a further increase to 92.6 ± 18.0 days/year by 2065 under the 4°C GWL scenario. Ischemic stroke showed the highest increase in temperature-related incidence rates, notably rising from 7.80% under the GWL 2°C to 36.06% under the GWL 4°C. Specifically, the annual temperature-related incidence rate for ischemic stroke is expected to increase significantly by 2065. Regions such as Taichung, Hsinchu, Yilan, and Taitung demonstrated pronounced changes in heat-related ischemic stroke incidence under the GWL 4°C. The findings emphasize the importance of addressing temperature-related stroke risks, particularly in regions projected to experience significant temperature increases. Effective mitigation strategies are crucial to reduce the impact of rising temperatures on stroke incidence and safeguard public health.

Hydrological and pedological effects of combining Italian alder and blackberries in an agroforestry windbreak system in South Africa

Abstract. The Western Cape in South Africa is a water-scarce region which will likely receive less rainfall and higher air temperatures under projected climate change scenarios. The integration of trees within agricultural systems provides an effective measure for improving water retention on agricultural land. Studying an established and irrigated agroforestry system (AFS) combining alder (Alnus cordata (Loisel.) Duby) as a linear windbreak with a blackberry (Rubus fructicosus L.) crop, we explore the water use dynamics of the intercrop as influenced by the windbreak element by combining methods from hydrology, soil science and forestry disciplines. Our objective is to explore whether the AFS positively impacts the water balance by combining measurement campaigns to characterise the spatial variability of various key system properties with continuous monitoring. The campaigns encompassed extensive soil sampling to determine soil characteristics (nutrient concentrations, hydraulic conductivity, texture, water retention) in the laboratory as well as terrestrial laser scans of the field site, especially of the windbreaks. The continuous measurements covered meteorological, soil water content and soil water potential observations over a 6-month period (in summer). These were applied to understand soil water dynamics during rainstorms and dry spells, including root water uptake as well as soil water storage. We recorded a total of 13 rainfall events delivering 2.5–117.6 mm of rainfall with maximum intensities of 4.1 to 82.6 mm h−1. Further analyses showed that infiltration is likely dominated by preferential flow, with root water uptake potentially occurring in two depth zones corresponding to different plant communities. While soil water content varied by depth and was influenced by physical and environmental factors, it was generally higher in the intercrop zone than within the windbreak-influenced zone. During dry spells, soil water content did not drop below the water content of the permanent wilting point (&lt;-1500 kPa). Values corresponding to soil water tensions above 1000 kPa were recorded on several occasions; these were mitigated by irrigation and, thus, did not result in water stress. Nutrient distribution and soil physical properties differed near the windbreak in comparison to the blackberry crop, and the carbon sequestration potential is great in comparison to monoculture farming. We could demonstrate positive effects of the windbreak on the water balance and dynamics in the blackberry field site, even though questions remain as to the extent of these benefits and how they compared to disadvantageous aspects brought about by the presence of the trees (e.g. increased water usage). Irrigation did, in fact, shift the AFS from a water-limited regime to an energy-limited one.

Long-Term Effect of Temperature Increase on Liver Cancer in Australia: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis.

While some evidence has potentially linked climate change to carcinogenic factors, the long-term effect of climate change on liver cancer risk largely remains unclear. Our objective is to evaluate the long-term relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer incidence in Australia. We mapped the spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Australia. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to estimate the relationships between the increase in temperature at different lags and liver cancer incidence in Australia, after controlling for chronic hepatitis B prevalence, chronic hepatitis C prevalence, and the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Spatial random effects obtained from the Bayesian CAR model were also mapped. The research showed that the distribution of liver cancer in Australia is spatially clustered, most areas in Northern Territory and Northern Queensland have higher incidence and relative risk. The increase in temperature at the lag of 30 years was found to correlate with the increase in liver cancer incidence in Australia, with a posterior mean of 30.57 [95% Bayesian credible interval (CrI): 0.17, 58.88] for the univariate model and 29.50 (95% CrI: 1.27, 58.95) after controlling for confounders, respectively. The results were not highly credible for other lags. Our Bayesian spatial analysis suggested a potential relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer. To our knowledge, this research marks the first attempt to assess the long-term effect of global warming on liver cancer. If the relationship is confirmed by other studies, these findings may inform the development of prevention and mitigation strategies based on climate change projections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14574.

Preface

3nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment (AICEE) Nusa Dua Bali, Indonesia, 24 August 2023 Accelerating a Just, Secure, and Resilient Energy Transition in ASEAN through Innovation and Interconnectivity Introduction ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) is an intergovernmental organization within ASEAN structure that represents the 10 ASEAN Member States’ (AMS) interests in the energy sector. With their growing population and economic growth, AMS are expected to be a new global epicentrum of energy market in the future. This trend pushes energy security as one of the highest priorities in energy development in the region. On the other hand, the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) Phase II: 2021-2025, a regional blueprint on energy cooperation, has a theme and sub-theme in which embracing energy transition is one of the key elements to achieve regional energy security and environmental sustainability. To further accelerate the progress towards a sustainable future, enhance collaboration among various sectors, and bridge the gap between academia, policymakers, and businesses, we are delighted to announce that the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) will be hosting the 3rd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment (AICEE) in conjunction with The ASEAN Energy Business Forum (AEBF) 2023 and The 41st ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) on August 24-25, 2023. These events will offer a platform for academics, practitioners, and stakeholders to network, exchange ideas, and explore innovative solutions to address the challenges of energy and the environment. The conference will take place in Bali, a stunning island renowned for its breathtaking scenery and rich cultural heritage. This unique location will provide participants with a memorable and immersive experience, allowing them to explore the fascinating local culture and gain a deeper understanding of the region’s energy and environmental issues. The event promises to be a remarkable occasion fostering collaboration and driving progress towards a sustainable future. This year’s AICEE is the third edition of the annual flagship conference held by ACE. Under the 3rd AICEE, we received 145 extended abstracts, accepted 96 extended abstracts to be compiled as Conference Proceeding and invited 76 authors to submit their full papers. To proceed with the publication, 59 papers are recommended to be the IOP Publishing process, and 44 papers are accepted for the IOP Publication of 2023 AICEE Volume. The 3rd AICEE was convened in-person presentation in partnership with Universitas Pendidikan Nasional (UNDIKNAS), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Energy Research Institute (ERI) Chulalongkorn University, National Energy Technology Center-National Science and Technology Development Agency (ENTEC-NSTDA), (ASEAN Climate Change and Energy Project (ACCEPT), Universitas Indonesia (UI), Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), Hawaii University, Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN). List of Theme, Topic, Key Dates, Participants, Agenda, Steering Committee, Scientific Committee, Organizing Committee and Documentation are available in this Pdf.

The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century

The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects subsurface carbon storage at rates of 1 – 30 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050. These projections, however, overlook potential geological, geographical, and techno-economic limitations to growth. We evaluate the feasibility of scaling up CO2 storage using a geographically resolved growth model that considers constraints from both geology and scale-up rate. Our results suggest a maximum global storage rate of 16 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050, but this is contingent on the United States contributing 60% of the total. These values contrast with projections in the Sixth Assessment Report that vastly overestimate the feasibility of deployment in China, Indonesia, and South Korea. A feasible benchmark for global CO2 storage projections, and consistent with current government technology roadmaps, suggests a global storage rate of 5-6 GtCO2 yr−1, with the United States contributing around 1 GtCO2 yr−1.

Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China

Abstract. Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and snow cover reduction. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource management and sustainable development. However, this issue is still not adequately addressed, particularly in mountainous catchments. We developed an integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, the FLEX-Cryo model, to comprehensively consider glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrological processes. Taking the mountainous Hulu catchment located in the upper Heihe River of China as a case study, we utilized the state-of-the-art climate change projection data under two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the future changes in the mountainous cryosphere and their impacts on hydrology. Our findings showed that under the medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), by the end of the 21st century, the glacier will completely melt out around the years 2051 and 2045, respectively. The annual maximum snow water equivalent is projected to decrease by 41.4 % and 46.0 %, while the duration of snow cover will be reduced by approximately 45 and 70 d. The freeze onset of seasonally frozen soil is expected to be delayed by 10 and 22 d, while the thaw onset of permafrost is likely to advance by 19 and 32 d. Moreover, the maximum freeze depth of seasonally frozen soil is projected to decrease by 5.2 and 10.9 cm per decade, and the depth of the active layer will increase by 8.2 and 15.5 cm per decade. Regarding hydrology, catchment total runoff exhibits a decreasing trend, and the tipping point of glacier runoff occurs approximately between 2019 and 2021. Permafrost degradation will likely reduce the duration of low runoff in the early thawing season; the discontinuous baseflow recession gradually transitions into linear recessions, and the baseflow increases. Our results highlight the significant changes expected in the mountainous cryosphere and hydrology in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of cold-region hydrological processes and have the potential to assist local and downstream water resource management in addressing the challenges posed by climate change.