Cancer Incidence Projections Research Articles

Cancer Incidence Projections in Northern Ireland to 2040.

Data on historic trends and estimates of future cancer incidence are essential if cancer services are to be adequately resourced in future years. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for all cancers combined and 19 common cancers diagnosed during 1993-2017 were determined by sex, year of diagnosis, and age. Data were fitted using an age-period-cohort model, which was used to predict rates in future years up to 2040. These were combined with population projections to provide estimates of the future case number. Compared with the annual average in 2013-2017, for all cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin) ASIRs are expected by 2040 to fall 9% among males and rise 12% among females, while the number of cases diagnosed is projected to increase by 45% for males and 58% for females. Case volume is projected to rise for all cancer types except for cervical and stomach cancer, with the annual number of cases diagnosed projected to more than double among males for melanoma, liver, and kidney cancers, and among females for liver, pancreatic, and lung cancers. Increased numbers of cancer cases is projected, due primarily to projected increases in the number of people aged 60 years and over. Projected increases will significantly impact the health services which diagnose and treat cancer. However, while population growth is primarily responsible, reduction of exposure to cancer risk factors, especially tobacco use, obesity, alcohol consumption, and UV radiation, could attenuate the predicted increase in cancer cases.

Projection of cancer incidence and death to 2040 in the US: Impact of cancer screening and a changing demographic.

1566 Background: Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of cancer incidence and death trends. As of 2020, breast, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer are the most incident cancers, while lung, colorectal, pancreas, and breast cancer result in the most deaths. Here we integrate observed cancer statistics and trends with observed and estimated US demographic data to project cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Methods: Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence and death rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2014-2016) were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence (2011-2015) and death (2012-2016) rates to project cancer incidences and deaths through the year 2040. We examined the 10 most incident and deadly cancers as of 2020. We utilized Joinpoint analysis to examine changes in incidence and death rates over time relative to changes in screening guidelines. Results: We predict the most incident cancers in 2040 in the US will be breast (322,000 diagnoses in 2040) and lung (182,000 diagnoses in 2040) cancer. Continuing decades long observed incident rate trends we predict that melanoma (173,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 3rd most common cancer while prostate cancer (63,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 5th most common cancer after colorectal cancer (139,000 diagnoses in 2040). Lung cancer (61,000 deaths in 2040) is predicted to continue to be the leading cause of cancer related death, with pancreas (45,000 deaths in 2040) and liver & intrahepatic bile duct (38,000 deaths in 2040) cancer surpassing colorectal cancer (34,000 deaths in 2040) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer related death, respectively. Breast cancer deaths (29,000 in 2040) are predicted to continue to decrease and become the fifth most common cause of cancer death. Joinpoint analysis of incidence and death rates supports a significant past, present, and future impact of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths, particularly for prostate, thyroid, melanoma incidences, and lung cancer deaths. Conclusions: We demonstrate marked changes in the predicted landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040. Our analysis reveals an influence of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths in future years. These projections are important to guide future research funding allocations, healthcare planning, and health policy efforts.

Prevalence of diabetes in Japanese patients with cancer.

Cancer patients with diabetes experience a poorer prognosis, yet the population burden of this multimorbidity remains unknown. This study aimed to estimate the latest incidence and prevalence of cancer with diabetes mellitus in Japan. We used projection of cancer incidence and latest survival data from population‐based cancer registries. The incidence of cancer associated with diabetes was estimated separately for patients with pre‐existing diabetes and those without diabetes, and used to estimate the 5‐year cancer prevalence for those with and without diabetes. The prevalence of pre‐existing diabetes in cancer patients at any cancer site was estimated to be 20.7% (647,160 men and women). Among cancer sites, diabetes prevalence was high in patients with liver and pancreatic cancers in both sexes. In conclusion, our study shows a large burden of diabetes in cancer patients in Japan, which warrants further attention by health practitioners and policy‐makers.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020

PurposeThis study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2020 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2017 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2018 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A Joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.ResultsIn total, 243,263 new cancer cases and 80,546 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2020. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the stomach, thyroid, colon/rectum, and breast. These five cancers types are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer among people who die is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colon/rectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.ConclusionThe incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

1642PD - Measuring the cancer burden in Europe: The European Cancer Information System (ECIS)

BackgroundThe European Commission has a long-term commitment to reducing cancer burden in the EU. Evaluation of the effectiveness of measures implemented is dependent on accurate and comparable data allowing derivation of cancer indicators (incidence, mortality, survival). For this purpose, the EC Joint Research Centre (JRC) in close collaboration with DG SANTE is maintaining a comprehensive cancer information system for Europe. MethodsPopulation-based cancer registries (CRs) are the information source for the computation of cancer burden indicators. In response to the call from the Council to the Commission to act further in harmonising EU cancer registration, the JRC since 2012 has taken an active role in supporting the activities and exploiting the data of the CRs affiliated to the European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR). ResultsThe JRC has developed and launched in February 2018 the European Cancer Information System (ECIS) as a web-based tool to report and disseminate cancer burden indicators. The ECIS displays historical time series and projections of cancer incidence and mortality, as well as cancer survival indicators. Statistics in the ECIS are derived from the data of about 150 CRs in 34 European countries, detailing up to 58 cancers sites. The database feeding the ECIS is dynamic and is updated as new data become available. ConclusionsECIS permits the exploration of geographical patterns and temporal trends of cancer burden indicators at national and/or regional level. It constitutes an essential tool to promote awareness on cancer burden, to assess and monitor its magnitude and follow trends and changes over time. ECIS is an important step forward in informing the citizens, assisting political decision making and supporting epidemiological research. Legal entity responsible for the studyEuropean Commission. FundingHas not received any funding. DisclosureAll authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

The burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada: Methods overview

Up-to-date estimates of current and projected future cancer burden attributable to various exposures are essential for planning and implementing cancer prevention initiatives. The Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study was conducted to: i) estimate the number and proportion of cancers diagnosed among adults in Canada in 2015 that are attributable to modifiable risk factors and ii) project the future avoidable cancers by 2042 under various intervention targets. We estimated the population attributable risk (with 95% confidence intervals) and the potential impact fraction of cancers associated with selected lifestyle, environmental, and infectious factors. Exposure-specific sensitivity analyses were also completed where appropriate. Several exposures of interest included active and passive smoking, obesity and abdominal adiposity, leisure-time physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption, insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, red and processed meat consumption, air pollution (PM2.5, NO2), indoor radon gas, ultraviolet radiation (UVR), hepatitis B and C virus, Helicobacter pylori, Epstein-Barr virus, human papillomavirus, human herpesvirus type 8 and human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1. We used the 2015 cancer incidence data for 35 cancer sites from the Canadian Cancer Registry and projected cancer incidence to 2042 using historical data from 1983 to 2012. Here, we provide an overview of the data sources and methods used in estimating the current and future cancer burden in Canada. Specific methodologic details for each exposure are included in the individual articles included as part of this special issue.

The future burden of cancer in Canada: Long-term cancer incidence projections 2013–2042

BackgroundCancer is the leading cause of death in Canada and the estimated annual spending associated with cancer is approximately $7.5 billion. Projecting the future burden of cancer in Canada is essential for health planning and evaluation. We aimed to estimate the future incidence of cancer in Canada to 2042. MethodsAge-sex-region-specific cancer incidence data were obtained for the years 1983-2012 and cancer incidence was projected from 2013 to 2042 for the top five cancer sites. The modelling algorithm combined a mixture of cancer projection methods to select the best-fitted model. When the chosen model produced by the modelling algorithm resulted in estimates that were not consistent with expert opinion, an alternate model was selected that took into consideration historical changes in policy, screening and lifestyle behaviours. Incidence projections were made for Canada and its provinces. ResultsLung cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 14,866 cases in men and 19,162 in women in 2042. Colorectal cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 28,146 in men and 21,102 in women. Cases of bladder cancer are projected to rise to 10,708 and 3,364 in men and women, respectively. Breast cancer incidence is predicted to rise to 40,712 and prostate cancer incidence is projected to rise to 92,949. ConclusionThese cancer incidence projections up to 2042 can be used for planning cancer control strategies and prevention programs. Given the ongoing changes in the prevalence of risk factors and in cancer prevention policies, these estimates should be interpreted with caution.

Projecting Cancer Incidence for 2025 in the 2 Largest Populated Cities in Vietnam.

The population size and projected demographics of Vietnam’s 2 largest cities, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Hanoi, will change dramatically over the next decade. Demographic changes in an aging population coupled with income growth and changes in lifestyle will result in a very different distribution of common cancers in the future. The study aimed to project the number of cancer incidence in the 2 largest populated cities in Vietnam for the year 2025.Cancer incidence data from 2004 to 2013 collected from population-based cancer registries in these 2 cities were provided by Vietnam National Cancer Institute. Incidence cases in 2013 and the previous decades average annual percent changes of age-standardized cancer incidence rates combined with expected population growth were modeled to project cancer incidence for each cancer site by gender to 2025.A substantial double in cancer incidence from 2013 to 2025 resulted from a growing and aging population in HCMC and Hanoi. Lung, colorectum, breast, thyroid, and liver cancers, which represent 67% of the overall cancer burden, are projected to become the leading cancer diagnoses by 2025 regardless of genders. For men, the leading cancer sites in 2025 are predicted to be lung, colorectum, esophagus, liver, and pharynx cancer, and among women, they are expected to be breast, thyroid, colorectum, lung, and cervical cancer. We projected an epidemiological transition from infectious-associated cancers to a high burden of cancers that have mainly been attributed to lifestyle in both cities.We predicted that with 16.9% growth in the overall population and dramatic aging with these 2 urban centers, the burdens of cancer incidence will increase sharply in both cities over the next decades. Data on projections of cancer incidence in both cities provide useful insights for directing appropriate policies and cancer control programs in Vietnam.

Projection of cancer incidence rates and case numbers until 2030: A probabilistic approach applied to German cancer registry data (1999–2013)

BackgroundCancer incidence projections are of major interest for resource allocation in healthcare and medical research. Previous reports of cancer incidence projections have often been deterministic, i.e. lacking quantification of uncertainty. We project cancer incidence in Germany by applying an approach that allows for probabilistic interpretation of outcomes. Material and methodsGerman cancer registry data from 1999 to 2013 are used to predict cancer incidence for 27 sites until the year 2030. We apply Bayesian Poisson and negative binomial models to obtain probabilistic estimates of future site-, year-, sex- and age-specific cancer incidence rates. Results from cancer incidence models are combined with probabilistic population projections to estimate numbers of incident cancer cases. Comparisons of overall and stratum-specific cancer incidence rates and case numbers are made between the years 2015 and 2030 by estimating absolute and relative change along with uncertainty intervals. ResultsThe overall standardized incidence rate is expected to increase by 5% (95%-credible interval: 0%, 13%) until 2030. Incident case numbers are expected to increase by 23% (95%-credible interval: 17%, 29%) which is mostly driven by demographic change. The probability (expressed as %) that the change will be >10%, >20% or >30% was calculated to be >99%, 66% and 7%, respectively. ConclusionsThe analysis provides evidence on the future cancer burden in Germany by applying a fully Bayesian approach that offers advantages in terms of flexibility, probabilistic interpretability, and transparency. It may especially be an alternative when long-term cancer incidence data are missing.

Disparity Between Metro-Centric Cancer Care and Rural Outreach in India: Situational Analysis and Future Trends in Context of Developing Countries

Background: Radiation therapy is used in two-third of all patients diagnosed with cancer in any form and it has become an integral part of modern treatment strategies for many types of cancers in recent decade. Semi-urban and rural places in India lack healthcare facilities and so as the cancer care facilities. Aim: To identify the propensity of a metro-centric oncologic care in developing countries undermining the need of availability of facilities in smaller towns and cities. Methods: Data for state-wise population for 2016 and 2026 was projected using cohort component method. For the projection of cancer incidence and prevalence in 2016 and 2026, we assumed that the state-level prevalence and incidence of cancer in the year 2015 will not change over time in 2016. Data collected through telephonic interviews from the radiotherapy centers listed by Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), India. Further, we assumed few scenarios of cancer incidence and prevalence increase and projected state wise cancer burden in 2026. Results: With almost 70% population of India residing in districts and cities lacking quality health care, the situation of cancer care is much grave. India is currently equipped with only 394 RTU (Radiation Therapy Unit) against requirement of almost 1300 RTU, amounting to 0.38 RTU per million populations as per World Health Organization. The public sponsored healthcare infrastructure for cancer treatment, and research is centralized with all the resources centered in metro/major cities. Eight metro cities of India with a combined population of 140.6 million hold control of 188 RTU under their boundaries. Thus, while habitants of these eight metro cities, constituting only 10.9% of the national population, avail treatment benefit from 38% of total RTU capacity of India, rest of Indian population at 1143.8 million strengths is left prey to the wrath of cancer with just 306 machines at disposal. In comparison, the developed nations as the United States of America, Australia, and the United Kingdom fare far better in RTU availability for treatment of diagnosed cancer patients, with RTU per million population density of 12.45, 10.12 and 5.04 respectively. Similar scenario has been seen in other LMICs in world like Congo, Mongolia, Sudan, Nigeria, Nepal etc. Conclusion: We observed that wide disparity exists in India concerning RTU and cancer facility availability and density per million populations in between metro cities and rest of India and a dire need of improvement to fight against cancer which is very similar to the situation in developing countries.

Projected Cancer Incidence Rates and Burden of Incident Cancer Cases in HIV-Infected Adults in the United States Through 2030.

Persons living with HIV (PLWH) have an elevated risk for certain types of cancer. With modern antiretroviral therapy, PLWH are aging and cancer rates are changing. To project cancer incidence rates and burden (number of new cancer diagnoses) among adult PLWH in the United States through 2030. Descriptive. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to project cancer rates and HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics model to project HIV prevalence. HIV-infected adults. Projected cancer rates and burden among HIV-infected adults in the United States by age during 2006 to 2030 for AIDS-defining cancer (ADC)-that is, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer-and certain types of non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC). All other cancer types were combined. The proportion of adult PLWH in the United States aged 65 years or older is projected to increase from 8.5% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2030. Age-specific rates are projected to decrease through 2030 across age groups for Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, cervical cancer, lung cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and other cancer types combined, and among those aged 65 years or older for colon cancer. Prostate cancer rates are projected to increase. The estimated total cancer burden in PLWH will decrease from 8150 cases in 2010 (2730 of ADC and 5420 of NADC) to 6690 cases in 2030 (720 of ADC and 5980 of NADC). In 2030, prostate cancer (n= 1590) and lung cancer (n= 1030) are projected to be the most common cancer types. Projections assume that current trends in cancer incidence rates, HIV transmission, and survival will continue. The cancer burden among PLWH is projected to shift, with prostate and lung cancer expected to emerge as the most common types by 2030. Cancer will remain an important comorbid condition, and expanded access to HIV therapies and cancer prevention, screening, and treatment is needed. National Cancer Institute.

Estimates of cancer burden in Umbria.

Model-based estimates and projections of epidemiological indicators related to cancer are important tools to support public health policies and planning. The aim of the present study is to produce projections of cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence for the Umbria region (900,000 inhabitants) in central Italy. The estimations were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate regional cancer survival. Estimated incidence rates were validated with observed incidence rates obtained from the Umbria regional cancer registry. The most frequent cancer sites estimated were colon-rectum, prostate and breast in women, with 970, 615 and 729 new diagnoses, respectively, in 2012. The incidence rates were increasing for female lung cancer, male colorectal cancer, and melanoma. By contrast, the rates have been declining for cervix and stomach cancer. For lung cancer and prostate cancer in men and colorectal cancer in women the rates increased, reaching a peak in different periods, and then decreased. The incidence rates of breast cancer rose, reaching a plateau in the mid 2010s. Favorable mortality trends were predicted for all cancers except skin melanoma and lung cancer in women. The prevalence of cancer was increasing with the only exception of cervical cancer in women and lung cancer in men in the most recent estimation period. The scenario found for cancer incidence and prevalence was largely influenced by screening activities, so that increasing or stable incidence rates may reflect active preventive efforts. Aging, screening, and more complex and costly treatments pose a problem of sustainability and selection of interventions to the regional oncology system. Evaluation of effectiveness of intervention and cost-benefit analyses will be important to ensure cancer control in the future.

Evaluation of Prediction of Cancer Using weighted Product Method

Predicting the number of cancer patients in the future is of great interest to society. Classical approach Age-period-cohort modeling should be used to generate cancer incidence projections. The number of predicted cases was calculated for these 160 combinations of gender and country. Averages vary from 10.4 percent to 15.3 percent for projections 10 years ahead, and from 15.1 percent to 32.0 percent for 20-year projections. Most cancer genes are physiologically inactive background of disease development. Tumors are the source of similar non-point mutations that are immunogenic and protected by tumors. Immunity. Cancer is classified as a heterogeneous disease with various subtypes. Early research – Cancer type and prognosis has become essential in cancer research because of the subsequent.

Abstract 5302: Projections of cancer incidence and burden among the HIV-positive population in the United States through 2030

Abstract Background: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at an elevated risk of several cancer types. With widespread use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) to treat HIV, survival has improved among PLWH, resulting in an aging U.S. HIV population. Though HAART use has reduced the risk of certain cancers, in the near future, a larger fraction of PLWH will reach age groups where cancer risks are further elevated, potentially shifting the distribution of cancers in the population. Here, we projected cancer incidence rates and burden among U.S. PLWH through 2030 for Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and cervical cancer (3 AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs]), and anal, breast, colon, lung, liver, prostate and oral cancers, Hodgkin lymphoma and all other cancers combined (all non-AIDS-defining cancers [NADCs]). Methods: We used cancer incidence data (2000-12) collected from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study, a record linkage study of HIV and cancer registries. Using Poisson regression, we estimated cancer incidence rates in PLWH stratified by age group and, for some cancers, risk group (e.g., men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs) during 2013-30. The number of PLWH in the U.S. by age, risk group and calendar year (2006-30) was estimated using a dynamic compartmental model. To estimate cancer burden, observed and projected incidence rates and HIV population counts were multiplied. Results: The proportion of the total U.S. HIV population that is aged ≥65 years is projected to increase from 4.1% (of 1.06 million) in 2006 to 21.4% (of 1.09 million) in 2030. Based on significant declines during 2000-12, age-specific rates are projected to decrease across age groups for NHL, cervical cancer, lung cancer and all other cancers, and for some age groups for KS, Hodgkin lymphoma and colon cancer. All other age-specific rates did not change significantly, with the exception of prostate cancer rates, which are projected to continue to increase. We estimated that the total cancer burden in PLWH will decrease from 7908 cases in 2010 (2719 ADC and 5190 NADC) to 6495 cases in 2030 (701 ADC and 5794 NADC), indicating a strong decrease in ADCs and a slight increase in NADCs. In 2030, the most common cancers among PLWH will include: prostate (n=1624), lung (n=786), liver (n=498) and anal cancers (n=447) and NHL (n=429). Conclusions: Though cancer rates are generally decreasing, cancer will remain an important co-morbidity as the U.S. HIV population ages. If recent trends in cancer incidence continue into the future, the burden of NADCs, particularly prostate, lung, liver and anal cancers, will far exceed the burden of ADCs in 2030. Targeted cancer prevention, early detection and control efforts are needed for PLWH in the U.S., including smoking cessation, treatment of hepatitis C and B viruses, cancer screening and continued widespread treatment with HAART. Citation Format: Jessica Y. Islam, Philip S. Rosenberg, H Irene Hall, Evin U. Jacobson, Eric A. Engels, Meredith S. Shiels. Projections of cancer incidence and burden among the HIV-positive population in the United States through 2030 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5302. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-5302

Abstract 2283: Population-level relevance of lifestyle-related risk factors for pancreatic cancer in Australia

Abstract Aim: To estimate the proportion of exocrine pancreatic cancers in Australia that can be attributed to the established risk factors, smoking and excess body weight, and the suggested risk factors, excessive alcohol consumption and excessive red and processed meat consumption. Methods: The proportion of pancreatic cancers attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors was quantified using the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) which combines estimates of the strength of the exposure-cancer association and the exposure prevalence in the population. The study population included seven Australian cohort studies (N=367,772) with comprehensive data on exposure to lifestyle-related risk factors and long-term follow-up. Pancreatic cancer incidence and all-cause mortality were identified through linkage with the Australian Cancer Database and National Death Index, respectively. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the strength of exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations adjusting for age, sex and other lifestyle exposures. The age- and sex-specific exposure prevalence was calculated from the Australian National Health Survey (NHS) 2011-2012 except for red and processed meat consumption which was not available and was calculated from the latest 45 and Up study. A newly developed method that takes into account the competing risk of death was used to produce PAF estimates and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: During the first 10-years follow-up to incidence of pancreatic cancer, death or end of follow-up, there were 21,541 deaths and 613 incident exocrine pancreatic cancers. 10% (CI = 1-17%) of pancreatic cancers in Australia could be attributed to current or past smoking. Current smoking explained 8% (CI = 4-13%) of pancreatic cancers. Using cancer incidence projections estimated by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, a PAF of 8% translates to 2,700 potentially preventable pancreatic cancers over the next 10 years. The PAF results for excess body weight (≥ 25 kg/m2), excessive alcohol consumption (> 2 drinks/day) and excessive red and processed meat consumption (≥ 4 times/week) were not statistically significant. Conclusion: According to the first pancreatic cancer PAF results from cohort studies, and accounting for competing risk of death, smoking control could reduce the number of pancreatic cancers by one tenth. Further PAF studies should include confidence intervals for the estimates to allow an evaluation of their significance. Citation Format: Maria E. Arriaga, Maarit A. Laaksonen, Karen Canfell, Robert MacInnis, Emily Banks, Graham Giles, Paul Mitchell, Robert Cumming, Barbra-Ann Adelstein, Julie Byles, Dianna J. Magliano, Jonathan Shaw, Anne Taylor, Kay Price, Vasant Hirani, Claire M. Vajdic. Population-level relevance of lifestyle-related risk factors for pancreatic cancer in Australia [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2283. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-2283

Issue Highlights

Issue Highlights

Cancer burden in slovenia with the time trends analysis.

BackgroundThe aim of our study was to describe cancer burden and time trends of all cancers combined, the most frequent as well as the rare cancers in Slovenia.Patients and methodsThe principal data source was the population-based Cancer Registry of Republic of Slovenia. The cancer burden is presented by incidence and prevalence for the period 1950–2013 and by mortality for years 1985–2013. The time trends were characterized in terms of an average annual percent change estimated by the log-linear joinpoint regression. The Dyba-Hakulinen method was used for estimation of incidence in 2016 and the projections of cancer incidence for the year 2025 were calculated applying the Globocan projection software.ResultsIn recent years, near 14,000 Slovenes were diagnosed with cancer per year and just over 6,000 died; more than 94,000 people who were ever diagnosed with cancer are currently living among us. The total burden of cancer is dominated by five most common cancer sites: skin (non-melanoma), colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate, together representing almost 60% of all new cancer cases. On average the incidence of common cancers in Slovenia is increasing for 3.0% per year in last decade, but the incidence of rare cancers is stable.ConclusionsBecause cancer occurs more among the elderly, and additionally more numerous post-war generation is entering this age group, it is expected that the burden of this disease will be growing further, even if the level of risk factors remains the same as today.

PC02.02 Pro Chemotherapy

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Predicted Increases in Incidence of Colorectal Cancer in Developed and Developing Regions, in Association With Ageing Populations

Population growth and changes in demographic structure are linked to trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. The aim of this study is to estimate future CRC incidence in the ageing population, and compare trends across developing and developed regions. Cancer and population data were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Annual incidence rates for the major types of cancer in 118 selected populations were extracted from 102 cancer registries in 39 countries worldwide. We selected 8 jurisdictions (from the United States, Europe, and Asia) that reported 20-year cancer incidence rates since 1988. Time series models were constructed to project cancer incidence, by sex and age, to 2030. Incidence rates for persons older than 65 years were combined and further adjusted for change of ageing population. We compared age-adjusted incidence rates among the jurisdictions. The total population older than 65 years old was 12,917,794 in 1988, and the number increased by almost 40% to 17,950,115 in 2007. In developed countries in the West CRC incidence is predicted to decrease by 16.3% in the United States, increase by 4.8% in the United Kingdom, and increase by 4.7% in Sweden by 2030. In developing countries, such as China (Shanghai), Croatia, and Costa Rica, CRC incidence is predicted to increase in a steep curve by 2030 because of the growing population and ageing effect; in 2030, the incidence increases were 60.5% for China, 47.0% for Croatia, and 18.5% for Costa Rica. We also predict CRC incidence will increase greatly by 2030 in Japan and Hong Kong, which are developed regions. With the exception of the United States, the incidence of CRC is expected to continue to rise in most regions in the coming decades, due to population growth and changes in demographic structure. The predicted increases are more marked in developing regions with limited health care resources.

Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths inGermany by 2020 and 2030.

Past patterns of cancer disease and future changes in the demographic structure have a major influence on the projected incidences of human malignancies. In Germany, nearly a quarter of men and 20% of women die of cancer, and it is estimated that in Germany around 51% men and 43% women will develop cancer during lifetime. Here, we project the cancer incidence case number as well as the number of deaths for the most common cancers in the German population for the years 2020 and 2030. By 2030, prostate cancer will be the most common malignancy, surpassing breast cancer. Lung cancer will rank third most frequent cancer and will remain the most common cause of cancer‐related mortality. Additionally, our projections show a marked increase in liver cancer cases with a continuous rise in liver cancer‐related deaths. Finally, we project a constant increase in the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Based on our projections, pancreatic cancer will surpass colorectal and breast cancer to rank as the second most common cause of cancer‐related deaths in Germany by 2030.