Interdependent Projects Research Articles

Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN) methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

A comprehensive approach for the selection of a portfolio of interdependent projects. An application to subsidized projects in Spain

Abstract Interdependency is an ubiquitous concept in project portfolio selection, both at the firm and industry levels. However, despite the wide acceptance of this fact, there is a remarkable scarcity of models involving interdependencies amongst non-financial investments. This paper presents a flexible model developed to address the scarcity of interdependency models: a fuzzy interactive multi-objective model, based on the reference point approach, which elicits the evaluation of interdependencies from a group of experts in a natural way. The model is presented in a sequential way, to highlight its contributions. Then, it is applied to solve a real portfolio selection problem, consisting on a large set of investment projects eligible for a subsidy program. The portfolio selected using the model achieves a sharp reduction in the deviations from objectives compared to the portfolio originally selected by the granting authorities.

The Viable System Model for Diagnosing and Handling IT-Project Interdependencies in Large Portfolios

Adequately considering project interdependencies has shown to be a determinant of how successful IT/IS project portfolios are managed. However, this can be especially troublesome since there is no universal way to handle many project interdependencies that continue to change over time due to environmental uncertainty or unexpected decisions. This can seriously disrupt portfolio performance. In this article, the authors used the systems perspective to address the problem of managing multiple IT-project interdependencies in complex IT/IS portfolio environment. In particular, the authors propose using the cybernetic model Viable System Model to facilitate thinking and reasoning concerning the difficulty of managing IT-project interdependencies. To validate their approach and to ensure the appropriateness of it, the authors used real-world problem situations drawn from multiple case studies conducted in four leading organizations in Saudi Arabia. The findings support that the Viable System Model can be applied to assist in diagnosing and handling of IT-project interdependencies.

Using a fuzzy MCDM approach to measure project complexity: a case study

Project complexity is considered as one of main factors of modern project management and should be better understood, analysed and measured. However, empirical studies related to the evaluation of project complexity are lacking. In this paper, four complexity criteria, project size, project variety, project interdependency, and project context-dependence are recognised for assessment of projects. Also, a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed to investigate the project complexity according to complexity criteria. The proposed model facilitates a consensus for decision-makers and reduces uncertainty. The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated in a case study of five projects performed by a company. The results reveal the usefulness of the proposed model in evaluating the project complexity in terms of complexity criteria. The findings also indicate the project variety and the project interdependency criteria have the highest impact on complexity of projects.

Information Technologies for Development Management Systems

We propose an interconnected complex of information technologies based on mathematical models. The proposed complex complements the technology of constructing development management systems (DMS), significantly increasing its effectiveness. This complex includes an integrated assessment system for the status of the development program, methods for constructing the program that take into account multipurpose and interdependent projects and a risk management, operational management, and scheduling model.

Задача о максимальном K-подграфе

We introduce the notion of a K-subgraph as a subgraph, each component of which contains at most K vertices. The problem is to determine the maximal K-graph, that is, the K-graph with the maximum number of vertices. The solution of the problem for a tree is given. For the case K = 2 two heuristic algorithms are proposed. An example of the applied task of portfolio formation is given taking into account the interdependence of projects, the algorithm for solving which includes the stage of determining the maximum K-subgraph.

Managing portfolio interdependencies

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to improve decision quality, and therefore project and portfolio success, by testing the influence of different visual representations of interdependency data in a simulated decision experiment. A network mapping approach to visualize project interdependencies is introduced and compared with matrix and tabular displays.Design/methodology/approachA simulated decision task in a controlled classroom setting tested five hypotheses though a sample of 480 experiments.FindingsThe type of data representation used is associated with differing levels of decision quality, and the use of network mapping displays is aligned with the best results.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings are limited as this experiment-based study presented a simplified decision scenario and involved students rather than practicing managers. The findings are best interpreted in combination with organization-based research.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study suggest that visual data displays, particularly network mapping displays, can provide benefits and improve project portfolio decision quality. Managers may draw upon this study to design ways to include visual data representations in their project portfolio management decision processes.Originality/valueThis study uses experimentation to complement organization-based studies to better understand the influence of different methods of visualizing data and managing interdependencies between projects. This research provides an important contribution to meet the acknowledged need for better tools to understand and manage project interdependencies.

INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR BUILDING ENVELOPES OF BIOCLIMATICAL HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS

The paper examines innovative and promising trends in in the design of high-rise buildings that challenge traditional typologies and are adapted for specific climatic conditions. The purpose of the study is to investigate modern methods of designing building envelopes for bioclimatic skyscrapers taking into account heat impact of climate on the thermal balance of buildings. 
 The research methodology is based on a systematic analysis of advanced world experience in constructing innovative buildings, "conquering" climate. The paper provides the basic principles of bioclimatic architecture. The issues of buildings’ forms and modes are considered. The authors analyze the efficiency of using double facades in different climatic conditions with account of their interaction with other technological, constructive and planning elements, such as "solar chimney", passive and active solar control systems, landscaping, intelligence control systems of temperature and humidity conditions in premises and buildings, etc. 
 The paper highlights that unique objects of bioclimatic skyscrapers are moving now into new typologies of buildings and help form dense, comfortable and convenient urban environment using natural resources effectively. The research shows how prospects and relevance of a systemic approach to introducing the related and interdependent projects for energy saving activities at all levels, starting from town-planning and architectural models, and ending with engineering and constructive solutions.

Bi-objective project portfolio selection in Lean Six Sigma

There are many aspects of a successful implementation of Lean Six Sigma techniques. Typically, decision-makers have to consider multiple conflicting objectives, and in many cases, they lack a formal approach for selecting projects. To meet the organization's requirements, some studies have proposed the use of multi-objective combinatorial optimization techniques. However, such formulations are notoriously difficult and complex to solve in reasonable computational time. In contrast to previous works, the present study proposes a novel integrated methodology to formulate and solve the Lean Six Sigma project portfolio as a 0–1 Bi-objective Quadratic Programming Problem. The model considers interdependent project effects (quadratic objectives) and is subject to resource limitations and constraints regarding mutually exclusive projects and mandatory projects. The approach permits tackling the problem as a Mixed-Integer Quadratically-Constrained Programming Problem and thus to use the branch-and-bound algorithms implemented by the standard optimization solvers such as CPLEX or Gurobi. Numerical examples are provided to verify the efficiency and added value of the methodology.

Impediments to Effective Management of Project Interdependencies

Interdependencies between projects have come to play a more active role in the decision on IT/IS portfolios and their constituent projects. However, managing these interdependencies can be a complex task, especially when the number and degree of interdependencies among projects are high. In times of uncertainty, unexpected challenges can seriously disrupt projects and, consequently, their interdependencies. This may threaten the project portfolio from achieving its final goal. The study aims to investigate the difficulties associated with managing project interdependence along the development cycle of the project portfolio. The study was conducted using a qualitative approach and semi-structured interviews with managers from four leading organizations in Saudi Arabia. The findings reveal three main categories of factors that increased the difficulty of managing project interdependencies in large IT/IS project portfolios: insufficient understanding of human responsibilities in the whole portfolio, unpredictability of the environment, and technology barriers and constraints.

Nonlinear optimization problem of interdependent investment projects portfolio

The optimal portfolio problem of effect-interdependent investment projects is considered. An algorithm yielding the optimal solution based on the method of network programming is suggested. The performance of this algorithm is illustrated using an example.

Construction of project portfolio considering efficiency, strategic effectiveness, balance and project interdependencies

This paper aims at providing project office managers or portfolio-level decision-makers with an integrated methodology to guide the portfolio selection process. The issue is to define a selection algorithm which is simultaneously built on a sound theory and remains practically manageable. The originality is to integrate project interdependencies at different levels, both in the objective function (both inputs and outputs) and in the definition of new constraints that ensure the portfolio balance and effectiveness. The portfolio construction problem is formalised and resolved with constraint satisfaction problem techniques. We show on a numerical fictitious example that results are significantly different considering or not project interdependencies. Some portfolios may be declared unfeasible and excluded from decision alternatives, and key values, like global revenue, may drastically change because of synergies or cannibalisations between projects. Our approach improves the performance of portfolios and increases the accuracy forecast between the expected outcomes and the actual ones, since interdependencies are modelled in a way which is closer from reality.

Moving Beyond Evaluation to Transit Project Prioritization: Lessons from the Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Context

Governments face critical decisions on how to spend taxpayers’ money and must weigh priorities and come to these decisions in a transparent and defensible way. A prioritization tool can play a critical role in informing spending decisions, ensuring that decisions are made in the interest of the public good, and bolstering public confidence in elected officials and the democratic process. Ideally, a prioritization tool not only evaluates potential projects against a desired set of policy objectives but also prioritizes potential projects into an implementation plan through the integration of pragmatic considerations. Metrolinx, an Ontario, Canada, provincial agency tasked with transportation planning for the greater Toronto and Hamilton area, developed a prioritization framework to make recommendations on capital investment in sustainable transportation. This paper summarizes the current prioritization framework, outlines its limitations, and goes on to explore potential remedies to those limitations as well as inherent challenges. Specifically, the paper discusses incorporating broader considerations, including multimodal integration and active transportation, congestion, network effects, and project interdependencies, and bridging the gap between project evaluation and real-world prioritization. The paper presents best-practice research for each broader consideration and posits that these broader considerations can be used to transform evaluation outputs into prioritized implementation plans.

Project Interdependency Management in IT/IS Project Portfolios: From a Systems Perspective

Capitalizing on inter-project interdependencies is widely accepted as being crucial for Information Technology/Information Systems (IT/IS) project portfolio success. However, handling these interdependencies becomes a source of increased management complexity as project portfolios get larger, increasingly diverse, and are much influenced by their environments. This then can lead to less predictable situations regarding the portfolio performance as a whole. Though there are many methods available for optimally selecting projects and cross-checking possible synergies and interdependencies among the projects in the portfolio, it remains unclear how one can gain control over the complexity of managing these interdependencies. In this study, we address the problem of handling many project interdependencies that continuously change and develop within a large IT/IS project portfolio. We found that the existing methods for selecting and managing the projects within a portfolio do not focus enough on how interdependencies can disrupt the balance of the whole project portfolio system. To tackle the problem, we propose a systemic approach using the Viable System Model to enhance the way that these interdependencies can be effectively managed in view of the overall portfolio system. We suggest that the Viable System Model, as a supplement to traditional IT/IS project portfolio management approaches, is recursively applied to diagnose and manage the complexity of project interdependencies within IT/IS project portfolios.

Capital Budgeting of Interdependent Projects with Fuzziness and Randomness

This paper discusses the problem of capital budgeting in the situation where only some model parameters are well described by their past data and therefore are specified by random variables, whereas the remaining model parameters can hardly be predicted by historical data and therefore they are described by means of fuzzy variables. In order to be able to process such hybrid data, a model of the problem is proposed. The model takes into account both stochastic and economic interdependency between projects. Additionally, a new hybrid method for solving this model is developed. The method combines stochastic simulation with arithmetic on interactive fuzzy numbers and nonlinear programming. As a result a set of Pareto-optimal alternatives is obtained. In order to illustrate the performance of the proposed hybrid method, an example from metallurgical industry is provided.

An extended model for project portfolio selection with project divisibility and interdependency

In this paper, we develop an extended model for the project portfolio selection problem over a planning horizon with multiple time periods. The model incorporates the factors of project divisibility and interdependency at the same time for real-life applications. The project divisibility is considered as a strategy, not an unfortunate event as in the literature, in choosing the best execution schedule for the projects, and the classical concept of “project interdependencies” among fully executed projects is then extended to the portions of executed projects. Additional constraints of reinvestment consideration, setup cost, cardinality restriction, precedence relationship and scheduling are also included in the model. For efficient computations, an equivalent mixed integer linear programming representation of the proposed model is derived. Numerical examples under four scenarios are presented to highlight the characteristics of the proposed model. In particular, the positive effects of project divisibility are shown for the first time.

A Grey Theory Based Multiple Attribute Approach for R&D Project Portfolio Selection

In this paper, the research and development (R&D) project portfolio selection problem is introduced as a multiple attribute decision making problem. Recognizing and modeling the project interdependencies provide valuable cost savings and other greater benefits to organizations. Therefore, besides conventional attributes like cost and outcome, different type of interdependencies are also considered as attributes. Since the decision makers’ preferences on the project alternatives or attributes are uncertain, a grey theory based method is proposed to cope with the uncertainty. correspondingly, the preferences and ratings of the attributes are described by linguistic variables, which are further expressed as grey numbers. Consequently, a ranking order of the projects is done using grey possibility degree and is used to determine the portfolio. To explore, an illustration is done by a case study. The methodology proposed here is shown to be an efficient approach to solve the R&D project portfolio selection problem.

Caseload midwifery as organisational change: the interplay between professional and organisational projects in Denmark.

BackgroundThe large obstetric units typical of industrialised countries have come under criticism for fragmented and depersonalised care and heavy bureaucracy. Interest in midwife-led continuity models of care is growing, but knowledge about the accompanying processes of organisational change is scarce. This study focuses on midwives’ role in introducing and developing caseload midwifery. Sociological studies of midwifery and organisational studies of professional groups were used to capture the strong interests of midwives in caseload midwifery and their key role together with management in negotiating organisational change.MethodsWe studied three hospitals in Denmark as arenas for negotiating the introduction and development of caseload midwifery and the processes, interests and resources involved. A qualitative multi-case design was used and the selection of hospitals aimed at maximising variance. Ten individual and 14 group interviews were conducted in spring 2013. Staff were represented by caseload midwives, ward midwives, obstetricians and health visitors, management by chief midwives and their deputies. Participants were recruited to maximise the diversity of experience. The data analysis adopted a thematic approach, using within- and across-case analysis.ResultsThe analysis revealed a highly interdependent interplay between organisational and professional projects in the change processes involved in the introduction and development of caseload midwifery. This was reflected in three ways: first, in the key role of negotiations in all phases; second, in midwives’ and management’s engagement in both types of projects (as evident from their interests and resources); and third in a high capacity for resolving tensions between the two projects. The ward midwives’ role as a third party in organisational change further complicated the process.ConclusionsFor managers tasked with the introduction and development of caseload midwifery, our study underscores the importance of understanding the complexity of the underlying change processes and of activating midwives’ and managers’ interests and resources in addressing the challenges. Further studies of female-dominated professions such as midwifery should offer good opportunities for detailed analysis of the deep-seated interdependence of professional and organisational projects and for identifying the key dimensions of this interdependence.

Selecting infrastructure maintenance projects with Robust Portfolio Modeling

Project portfolios for the annual maintenance of infrastructure assets may contain dozens of projects which are selected out of hundreds of candidate projects. In the selection of these projects, it is necessary to account for multiple evaluation criteria, project interdependencies, and uncertainties about project performance as well as financial and other relevant constraints. In this paper, we report how Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) has been used repeatedly at the Finnish Transport Agency (FTA) for bridge maintenance programming. At FTA, project selection decisions are guided by the RPM's Core Index values which are derived from portfolio-level computations and reflect incomplete information about the relative importance of evaluation criteria. To-date, this application has been rerun with fresh data for six consecutive years. By drawing on experiences from this application, we discuss preconditions for the successful use of RPM or other methods of Portfolio Decision Analysis in comparable settings. We also develop an approximative algorithm for computing non-dominated portfolios in large project selection problems.

Economic benefits of combining clean energy technologies: the case of solar photovoltaics and battery electric vehicles

Summary The combined use of clean technologies can lead amongst other benefits to reduced environmental impacts, improved system efficiencies, better management of land scarcity, and diminishment of the effect of power variability of intermittent clean energy sources. Nonetheless, private investors facing budgetary constraints will only opt to invest in the combination of technologies if the latter is more profitable than the investment in a single technology. The aim of the paper is to provide a systematic model for decision makers that allows them to evaluate the profitability of any random combination of technologies under budgetary constraints, and to compare this profitability with that of the individual projects in isolation. This research goes beyond the state of art in the field of financial management and more specifically in the field of the rationing of capital amongst interdependent projects, by developing a method to calculate the payoff of interdependent projects undertaken together. Moreover, this paper develops a computational model from the investor's point of view, of which the purpose is threefold: First, the model allows to directly compare the economic payoff of individual complementary technologies with the economic payoff of their integrated combination, under budgetary constraints. Second, the model calculates economic synergies labeled ‘benefits of combined technologies’ (BOCT) when combining complementary technologies. Third, the model explains the rationalization behind the presence of BOCT. The model exemplifies an ex ante cost benefit analysis developed for business and non-governmental use. A four step methodology is proposed and illustrated by means of a case study of PV solar power and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for a small Belgian enterprise. Results show that at low electricity prices ( €0.134/kWh), investment in exclusively PV becomes most attractive. In all other cases, it is more profitable to invest in the combination of both technologies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.