Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Research Articles

Improvement of China's System on Security Assessment of Outbound Personal Data Flow under the Background of CPTPP

With the development of cross-border e-commerce's integration with the global economy, the cross-border data flow is playing an increasing important role in international economy and trade, and the smoothness of it directly or indirectly affects the improvement of the digital economy. Many countries or regions have established their own legal regulation systems for outbound data. Now China is the largest retail export economy in cross-border electronic commerce in the world, it application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) is not smooth, and its data cross-border rules are quite different from CPTPP clauses, so it is difficult to align with them. Among them, the security assessment of outbound personal data flow system currently implemented in China is a major factor that makes connecting the cross-border personal data flow rules of China with CPTPP cross-border personal data flow clauses more difficult. By comparing this system in China with the cross-border personal data flow regulation system in the United States and the European Union, as well as the relevant provisions of CPTPP, this paper points out that there are some problems in this system in China, such as vague definition of the basic concept "important data" and excessive burden on data processors, and puts forward some legislative improvement measures to solve these existing problems, such as clarifying "important data", constructing a classification and grading system for cross-border data flow, and reshaping the distribution system of compliance responsibility for safety assessment.

Trade as a commerical determinant of health: The health impact of a free trade agreement on Wales

Abstract As a result of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (‘Brexit’), the UK can negotiate its own trade agreements for the first time in over 40 years. This includes the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP). Public Health Wales undertook a mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) to assess the potential impact of the CPTPP on health, well-being and inequalities in Wales. It is only the second ever HIA carried out on a free trade agreement (FTA) globally. A literature review on the potential impact of the CPTPP on health was conducted. Qualitative interviews with cross-sectoral representation, such as the environment, were undertaken alongside the development of a community health and demographic profile. The HIA identified significant potential impacts across health determinants, e.g., employment, agricultural production and health care, as well as impacts on population groups, e.g., those on low incomes. The Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism, economic uncertainty and loss of regulatory alignment were identified as potential pathways for health impacts to affect the population. The HIA highlighted trade as a key commercial determinant of health. The findings have been beneficial in informing policy and decision-makers to prepare for the implementation of the CPTPP and take action to maximise opportunities and prevent potential negative impacts. Communicating HIA evidence that links trade to health has also led to valuable cross-sector and cross-UK engagement and sparked a “rethinking” of trade through a well-being economy lens where health, well-being and sustainability are primary objectives. This work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach to FTAs by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others as well providing an entry point for public health to have direct engagement with trade negotiators and those participating in trade discussions. Key messages • Trade agreements are a key commercial determinant of health across health behaviour, policy and economy. • Multiple population groups are affected by trade agreements both positively and negatively.

Transcending Geography: The United Kingdom’s Accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership

ABSTRACT Immediately after Brexit, the UK started negotiations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The decision is puzzling. First, Brexiteers lauded regaining sovereignty as a key benefit of Brexit, yet the UK Government sought accession to another trade grouping (albeit one far more restrained in regulation and supranationalism). Secondly, CPTPP is a Trans-Pacific project, the UK is not located in that geographic region. UK accession to CPTPP symbolises an operationalisation of the spatial imaginaries of a ‘free-trading’ ‘Global Britain’ that emerged during Brexit. It represents an illustrative example of a state reshaping its boundaries within a ‘space of flows’ where economic interactions and the rules that order these transcend national territories and geographic proximity. This paper draws on UK government and CPTPP documents related to the accession process to establish how the parties understood the process and the reconfiguration of spatial dynamics and redefinition of the TP part of CPTPP to include the UK. It pays particular attention to the development in the discourses of imaginaries of communities of rules and norms as being more significant than geographic considerations in determining the geographic reach of a regional integration initiative like CPTPP. The paper argues that it was this imaginary of a community of standards and free-trade values that justified the recasting the UK as ‘belonging’ in this regional grouping and enabled this new spatial projection for the UK and CPTPP.

Эволюция подходов Китая к экономической интеграции в АТР

The article is analyzing the latest trends in China’s participation in the integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region and their determining factors. The evolution of China’s approaches to integration processes in the region in key areas of trade, economic and investment interaction is considered. China’s integration cooperation with the Asia-Pacific countries is developing within three main multilateral formats, including the forum of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The One Belt, One Road Initiative occupies a special place in China’s policy regarding integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region. The paper analyzes the directions of development of these formats, the nature of their interaction with each other, the prospects for the integration of the Asia-Pacific countries and China’s participation in these processes. In connection with the stalled rounds of WTO trade negotiations and the postponement of the creation of a free trade area within the framework of the APEC, China’s participation in the RCEP strengthens its regional position while China has now become the leading trading partner for the countries participating in the agreement. ASEAN countries’ trade with China exceeds their trade with the United States. The article also considers trends and problems in the implementation of the Chinese One Belt, One Road Initiative. Among the problems are the discrepancies between the interests of the parties involved, the lack of investment resources, political factors. At the same time, the flexible nature of the Chinese Initiative, the absence of strict requirements for participants, and their interest in the project allows the One Belt, One Road to become the world’s largest cooperation platform operating on the principles of an open mega-partnership.

Searching for a new institutional structure for the global trade system: What role for Asia in the age of US-China competition?

After a year of record international trade in 2022, it is uncertain whether the future of the global economy is fragmentation or a new institutional structure. The challenges are to re-establish a dispute resolution mechanism, as the WTO process currently allows decisions to be appealed into oblivion, and to extend the coverage of world trade law to address changes in world trade since 1995. This paper argues that the best option for a beyond-WTO institutional order is an expanded Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and that, absent a functioning WTO appeal system, the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) is a way to resolve appeals. This could lead to a three-tier global trade system as the expanded CPTPP membership observes the highest standard world trade rules, a second group accepts WTO rules but no more, and a third group has no interest in being bound by world trade rules. On the post-2017 record, the USA could be in any of these three groups. The leading Asian trading nations have a key role to play in ensuring that the first group accounts for the majority of world trade, and to encourage countries to want to follow CPTPP standards and to be at the table when extensions to these standards are discussed.

Digital services and digital trade in the Asia pacific: an alternative model for digital integration?

ABSTRACT This article explores digital integration in the Asia Pacific through a comparative analysis of four preferential trade agreements (PTAs): (i) the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP); (ii) the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP); and two-digital only agreements: (iii) the ASEAN Ecommerce Agreement; and (iv) the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement. This article argues that although Asia/ASEAN-led PTAs such as RCEP and ASEAN E-Commerce Agreement appear less ambitious at first sight, when compared to digital trade chapters in PTAs led by western states such as the CPTPP, they are both relevant and appropriately suited to foster digital trade integration in the region. Viewed from the perspective of New Asian Regionalism, these agreements contribute substantially to the global economic order by leveraging the collective power of the Asia-Pacific through a pragmatic, incremental approach. By combining soft law mechanisms with specific legal obligations, these PTAs have better-addressed variations in digital development levels and policy preferences across countries, eventually leading to meaningful consensus-building and long-term engagement in complex areas of digital regulation.

Canada’s Shift Towards the Indo-Pacific: Economic and Trade Aspects

Canada had always been considered as an Atlantic nation because of its strong traditional ties with the Europe. The paper is an attempt to analyse this conception of Canada and it tries to establish Canada as a Pacific nation. It primarily focuses on Canada’s economic and trade ties with the Asian and Pacific countries. The paper investigates the earlier Asia Pacific constructs and attempts to explain the gradual shift towards the construct of Indo Pacific. It also underlies the subtle difference between the two constructs. In an attempt to establish this the paper focuses on Canada’s potential to develop an Indo Pacific construct which is based on its position of rule of law and liberal internationalism and cooperation with like minded countries. The paper analyses Canada’s position in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership and how this could help Canada to justify and develop its Indo Pacific narrative.

How’s it going with the CPTPP?

There is no doubt that the United States is losing out on market access. But one of the original goals of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was for a rules-based trading regime in the Pacific, namely rules not written by China. Thanks to Australia and Japan that seems to be happening even with the U.S. no longer at the helm. The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership or the awkwardly nicknamed CPTPP is a Pacific trading bloc that consists of 11 countries, spanning the Pacific Rim, and includes Malaysia and Chile. The member countries represent 13% of world GDP. Once the UK officially joins, that figure jumps to 15% and the trade bloc will reach across the Atlantic. The United States was key in drafting the text of the agreement, starting with the George W. Bush administration, which was clear in its commitment to openness. As China shifted back to a more state-controlled economy, the Obama administration underscored a key U.S. goal: for the United States and not China to write the trade rules for Asia. Key goals included modernizing countries’ rules on ecommerce and digital trade and establishing rules on state-owned enterprises. The Obama administration carried the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) through right up to the finish line. President Trump took a sharp turn and withdrew the United States from the agreement, claiming the agreement would not be good for the United States. Even though there are signs that the American public is open to more trade, the Biden administration and Congress have not pursued Trade Promotion Authority or any new trade deals that would lock in more market access abroad. The United States is no doubt missing out on market access in parts of the Pacific, especially agriculture. But thanks to quiet leadership by Australia and Japan a rules-based trading bloc in the Pacific not led by China is forming.

Analysis of the Impact of CPTPP Membership on the Korean Economy

Purpose - As of 2022, Korea’s dependence on trade was 75%. Korea must join the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in order to keep pace with US-led trade standards in the future. This paper empirically investigated the impacts of Korea’s participation in the CPTPP on the economy. Design/Methodology/Approach - Using the World Input-Output Database and regression analysis, Korea’s CPTPP membership expands trade with 11 countries, including Japan, contributing greatly to the growth of the Korean economy. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows. In 2022, exports and imports to Japan were $30.6 billion and $54.7 billion, respectively. If Korea joins the CPTPP, the economic effect will increase GDP by about 1.7% every year, and is expected to be more than $40.3 billion in 2025. The CPTPP has a great impact on the Korean economy by expanding trade with 11 countries, including Japan. Although Korea already has FTAs with 9 TPP member countries, it has been found that Korea’s GDP expands through additional tariff and non-tariff trade expansion by joining the CPTPP. Research Implications - Existing studies focus on the benefits of Korea on joining the CPTPP. This paper attempts to firstly evaluate the impact of joining the TPP on the Korean economy via analysis of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD).

The UK’s new free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific: how closely is it adopting US trade regulation?

In a global economy and system increasingly defined by new developments and complexities in trade, whose rules and regulations govern that trade matter. The UK has embarked on a new post-Brexit trade policy, signing its first wholly new free trade agreements (FTAs) with Australia and New Zealand. It is also in negotiations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as part of the UK’s aspirations to become an integral part of the Asia-Pacific trading community. This study’s research and text analysis on the UK’s bilateral FTAs with Australia and New Zealand reveals high levels of similarity with two larger regional agreements heavily imprinted with US trade regulatory norms—this being the CPTPP itself and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The UK’s revealed willingness to strongly align itself with US trade regulatory norms has important implications for the Asia-Pacific. It also raises some key issues on what kind of trade partner the region might expect a post-Brexit ‘Global Britain’ to become, and how the UK’s deeper planned engagement with the Asia-Pacific could affect its strategic dynamics. This could significantly depend on how closely the UK is pulled over time into the US’ trade regulatory orbit.

The Biden Administration’s Trade Policy: Promise and Reality

AbstractThis Article critically analyzes seven elements of the Biden administration trade policy: (1) buy American; (2) tariffs; (3) World Trade Organization; (4) free trade agreements; (5) China; (6) technology; and (7) Russia. Although President Biden has made a clean break from Trump policies in many areas, this is not the case when it comes to international trade. Regretfully, Biden has chosen to keep in place most of the failed trade policies of his predecessor—the Trump tariffs and the China trade war. It is not too late to shift ground, to negotiate mutual abolition of the Trump tariffs, to open free trade negotiations with the EU and UK, to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, to adopt a multilateral strategy with allies to check Chinese trade excesses, and to reengage with the World Trade Organization. Topping the list of needed reforms of the multilateral trading system are: (1) subsidies; (2) state-owned enterprises; and (3) forced technology transfer. These are best addressed through a WTO plurilateral agreement and/or preferential trade agreements. The Biden administration should prioritize these urgent reforms. Rather than promoting “free” trade and multilateral trade reforms, the Biden administration continues its predecessor’s nationalistic policies so that trade serves domestic political ends. Such state intervention in trade policy consists of the strategic use of tariffs, subsidies, “buy American” rules, and regional trade arrangements without regard to the rules of the multilateral trading system. These new policies represent a decisive retreat from globalization and openness to trade.The Congress, directed by the Biden administration, has adopted a far-reaching industrial policy in the form of four laws that subsidize key sectors of the U.S. economy: American Rescue Plan Act ($40 billion); Infrastructure and Jobs Act ($1.2 trillion); Inflation Reduction Act ($369 billion); and Chips Act ($252.7 billion). This subsidization coupled with “buy American” protectionism constitute a departure from the free trade ideal that has characterized U.S. policy since the end of World War II.

Сравнительный анализ мегарегиональных торговых соглашений в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе

The article conducts a comparative analysis of the trade mega-formats (mega-regional trade agreements) operating in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) in terms of emerging institutional structures and compliance with existing regulations of the World Trade Organization (WTO). As a result, the hypothesis of basing in the medium term the model of functioning of international trade on the rules and regulations of the emerging integration format of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is substantiated, within the framework of which a single trade and economic institutional environment is created, which differs from the functioning environment and organizational structure of the WTO. The high standards set by the CPTPP will determine the rules and regulations of international trade, either through gradual introduction into WTO instruments or by extending the agreement itself to new territories in the process of joining the partnership of the following participants. It is shown that in the medium term it is advisable for the Russian Federation to focus on the integration format of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), free from the geopolitical context and absorbing the main share of mutual trade of countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Potential accession to the CPTPP would require large-scale economic reforms, which could prove quite painful for the country’s economy in the short term. According to the author, the RCEP in its essence and structure is not a mega-regional integration format, but a new large free trade zone without creating a single institutional environment. The main concessions are the reduction of tariff barriers, while in other areas long transition periods are envisaged, allowing for changes without the emergence of shocks in the national economy. This will give Russia the opportunity to expand cooperation with the main trading partners in the region and receive significant economic benefits without resorting to large-scale transformations

Assessing the effects of input uncertainties on the outputs of a freight demand model

Freight demand models typically use a series of sub-models that relate several inputs to model outputs, without considering the uncertainty of typical data sources used in the model development process. Hence, the uncertainty of freight demand model outputs is typically not characterized, making it difficult to understand the robustness of the model results, or how the rigour of the results might be improved with additional data. This paper proposes a formal five-step framework to analyze the effects and propagation of input uncertainty from datasets used during model development on the uncertainty of the outputs in a freight demand model driven by exogenous economic forecasts. The framework is applied to a Canadian commodity-based freight demand model, inspired by the Aggregate-Disaggregate-Aggregate (ADA) model, used to analyze the effects of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on Canada's trade infrastructure. In this application of the framework, uncertainty for input datasets used to develop three sub-models is introduced and a set of outputs is simulated through repeated simulation. Descriptive statistics and rank error measures are used to access the uncertainty of the outputs. The results suggest that the case study model performs with adequate robustness in terms of aggregated outputs and for larger trade partners, while some specific disaggregate outputs and scenarios with smaller trade partners are less robust.

Drafting Investment Law: Patterns of Influence in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

ABSTRACT The investment chapter in the recently signed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has the potential to affect investment decisions in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. Yet, we know relatively little about the pathways through which countries determine the content of investment law in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In this article, we use quantitative text analysis to test theoretically informed conjectures about the negotiation process. We focus on which of the signatories’ past agreements most influenced RCEP, and whether countries chose to draw more from treaty practice through their previous PTAs or bilateral investment treaties (BITs). Our analyses yield several noteworthy findings. First, we show that no single country dominated the negotiation process, instead RCEP represents an effort to reconcile overlapping agreements around a more common template. Second, contrary to the fears of some observers, we show that larger powers such as China and Japan did not overwhelmingly impact the agreement, instead portions were influenced by Association of Southeast Asian Nations agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, and others. Finally, we show that, on average, countries drew more from PTAs than BITs, but that they switch strategically between them to reuse language that they deem important for the development of investment law.

Estimating the Impact of Cumulative Rules of Origin on Trade Costs: An Application to Mega-regional Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region

AbstractWe investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs), focusing on the impact of cumulative rules of origin (ROO) on trade costs. Using a gravity regression model, we estimate the effect of various cumulative ROO systems on the measured trade costs. We apply these estimates to static and capital accumulation computable general equilibrium models to compare the effects of mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region—namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and Free Trade Areas in the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We find that mega-regional FTAs may not be a viable alternative to a multilateral trading system or bilateral FTAs unless less restrictive cumulative ROO are adopted. Successful FTAs depend on an appropriate cumulative ROO provision system rather than their membership expansion.

When Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP) Meets Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement(CPTPP): Considering the “Spaghetti Bowl” Effect

ABSTRACT This paper constructs a large-scale computable general equilibrium model with 26 countries and regions. The model is embedded in the global value chain, trade costs are introduced, and the trade effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) under three different scenarios are simulated and analyzed. The simulation results show that in the context of superimposed consideration of the global value chain and the “spaghetti bowl” effect, the trade promotion effect of RCEP and CPTPP on member states has declined. The trade effect of some members may still be impaired, but at the same time, the trade agreement’s “exclusive effect” will also decline. Becoming a joint member of RCEP and CPTPP will result in greater benefits than joining only one trade agreement or not joining a trade agreement. Therefore, it is valuable to speed up the construction of a trade agreement network. When the spaghetti bowl effect is not taken into consideration, the trade promotion effects of RCEP and CPTPP are more prominent than when the spaghetti bowl effect is considered. For nonmembers, regardless of the situation, joining a trade agreement can result in greater benefits.

Challenges and Prospects for the CPTPP in a Changing Global Economy: Taiwanese Accession and Canada’s Role

The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which entered into force on December 20, 2018 for the six of the eleven signatories that had completed ratification at that time (Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore) is a beacon of hope in a dark protectionist landscape. The CPTPP advances the trade and investment liberalization agenda at a time when protectionist measures by some major trading countries are threatening to undo decades of progress. With respect to Taiwan, the Taiwanese government has made no secret of its interest in accession to the CPTPP. Taiwanese accession should be pursued because it is in the interest of Canada and the other members of the CPTPP to add to the strength of the organization by welcoming an economy like Taiwan that is an important global trader, a key player in global supply chains and is willing and able to accept CPTPP disciplines. Canada is the second largest economy in the CPTPP and can play an important role in getting the accession process started, including supporting the extension of an invitation to Taiwan to begin negotiations. It’s time to move from talk to action.

The Impact of Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement on Indonesian Economy

Islamic law is inclined toward free trade and condemned imposing tariffs on trade with other states. Even when tariffs were imposed, they were imposed based on reciprocity. The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a free trade agreement to realize tariff elimination. CPTPP was signed by 11 countries in Santiago, Chile, on March 8, 2018, and this renewed agreement attracted Indonesia to join. This study analyzes the possible impact of CPTPP implementation on the Indonesian economy using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. We conduct a simulation to evaluate the impact of CPTPP on the Indonesian economy. The results show that the implementation of CPTPP leads to an increase in the real GDP and welfare of Indonesia. Also, the study found that CPTPP is beneficial to members. These results generally justify the elimination of tariffs promoted by Islamic law.

Labour Provisions in Trade Agreements

There has been a significant increase of provisions dealing with labour standards in trade agreements (labour provisions). Will these labour provisions improve labour standards? This article takes up this question in relation to the ‘Labour’ chapter of the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (‘CPTPP’). This chapter provides the crucial test for whether labour provisions (as currently framed) will improve labour standards, having been hailed by the United States government as providing ‘the strongest protections for workers of any trade agreement in history’. Contrary to rhetoric accompanying this chapter, this article argues that it is a form of neoliberal regulation – faux regulation. It stands forth as an example of such legalised minimalism for three reasons. First, it provides for flexible standards particularly through its heavy reliance on rights recognised in the 1998 ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work. Second, it lays down standards for flexibility through non-existent standards, liquid-soft obligations, and heavily qualified obligations. But third, the evidence shows that the parties to the agreement either have not ratified the core ILO Conventions on which the labour principles are based, or (using freedom of association as a case-study) are in breach of these obligations, sometimes in quite significant ways. The extent of non-compliance at the point of commencement raises serious questions about the integrity and purpose of the ‘Labour’ chapter. These reinforce the sense that the chapter is a form of faux regulation in which the parties have deliberately constructed a system of Mutually Assured Non-Compliance. The article concludes by sketching out the broader implications of its analysis for other labour provisions and identifying ways to go beyond faux regulation.

The New Paradigms for the Rule of Origin in México

One of the main tools for the operation of the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are the Rules of Origin that allow exporters to be able to take advantage to the preferential tariffs. In the case of a Mexico, such rules were inserted in our legislation firstly, as a result of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and from there after by other trade agreements, and secondly as a tool for exempting the application of dumping duties, principally those applied to China. Mexico has undergo through a process of signing new FTA s as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Treaty, as well as the modernization of NAFTA that resulted in the United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the FTA with the European Unión. The former has provided for a new rule of Origin in the automotive industry that were the core of the negotiations which turned free trade into a trade administration Trade Agreement. In this article I analyse briefly the rules of origin in such agreements. USMCA, NAFTA, Automotive, CPTPP, Chemicals; Focused Value Method, FTA EU