Prognostic Tool In Clinical Practice Research Articles

Enhanced liver fibrosis test can predict clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease

BackgroundClinicians use fibrosis in a liver biopsy to predict clinical outcomes of chronic liver disease. The performance of non-invasive tests has been evaluated against histological assessment of fibrosis but use...

Biomarkers for axonal damage in immune-mediated neuropathy

Biomarkers are generally used as diagnostic and prognostic tools in clinical practice, but are not yet available for neuropathies. Studies now suggest that neural protein levels in serum and cerebrospinal fluid reflect axonal damage and predict poor outcome in patients with immune-mediated neuropathy, although validation studies are needed to define their clinical relevance.

Stage migration in localized prostate cancer has no effect on the post-radical prostatectomy Kattan nomogram

To investigate the effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on stage migration in an Australian population, and its consequences on the prognostic accuracy of the post-radical prostatectomy (RP) Kattan nomogram, as in North America widespread PSA testing has resulted in prostate cancer stage migration, questioning the utility of prognostic nomograms in this setting. The study comprised 1008 men who had consecutive RP for localized prostate cancer between 1991 and 2001 at one institution. Two groups were assessed, i.e. those treated in 1991-96 (group 1, the early PSA era), and 1997-2001 (group 2, the contemporary PSA era). Differences in clinicopathological features between the groups were analysed by chi-squared testing and survival modelling. Individual patient data were entered into the post-RP Kattan nomogram and the efficacy assessed by receiver- operating characteristic curve analysis. Patients in group 2 had lower pathological stage disease (P = 0.01) and fewer cancers with Gleason score > or =8 (P < 0.001) than group 1. Multivariate analysis identified preoperative serum PSA level (P < 0.01) and Gleason score (P < 0.01) as strong predictors of biochemical relapse in both groups. In group 2 pathological stage was not significant, but margin involvement became highly significant (P = 0.004). There was no difference in the predictive accuracy of the Kattan nomogram between the groups (P = 0.253). These findings show a downward stage migration towards organ-confined disease after the introduction of widespread PSA testing in an Australian cohort. Despite this, the Kattan nomogram remains a robust prognostic tool in clinical practice.

A scoring system to predict renal outcome in IgA nephropathy: a nationwide 10-year prospective cohort study

Background. Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common form of glomerulonephritis, and a substantial number of patients succumb to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, prediction of the renal outcome in individual patients remains difficult. We have already published a scoring system using the data in a prospective cohort of IgAN patients followed up from 1995 to 2002.Methods. The cohort was further followed up until 2005 in 97 clinical units in Japan. The data from 2283 patients were analysed by Cox regression to determine the predictors of ESRD in IgAN, and their β-coefficients were converted into scores to estimate ESRD risk within 10 years.Results. During the follow-up (median, 87 months), 252 patients developed ESRD. Male sex, age less than 30 years, family histories of chronic renal failure and chronic glomerulonephritis, hypertension, proteinuria, mild haematuria, hypoalbuminaemia, low glomerular filtration rate and a high histological grade at initial renal biopsy were associated with the risk of ESRD in the multivariable analysis. A scoring system was framed to estimate the 10-year ESRD risk using eight variables significant in both univariable and multivariable models. This prognostic score accurately classified patients by risk: patients with estimates of 0–4.9, 5.0–19.9, 20.0–49.9 and 50.0–100% had an observed incidence of 1.7, 8.3, 36.7 and 85.5%, respectively. The corresponding area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval, 0.925–0.958).Conclusion. This validated scoring system to quantitatively estimate ESRD risk during the 10-year follow-up of IgAN patients will serve as a useful prognostic tool in clinical practice.

Serum interleukin‐6 receptor in polymyalgia rheumatica: A potential marker of relapse/recurrence risk

To investigate the modulation of systemic levels of soluble interleukin-6 receptor (sIL-6R) and soluble gp130 (sgp130) in untreated and treated polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) patients during a followup period of at least 24 months in order to evaluate the relationship of these molecules with clinical outcome and their feasibility to provide a prognostic tool in clinical practice. We analyzed sIL-6R and sgp130 serum levels in 93 PMR patients, and 46 age-matched normal controls, at disease onset and at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months of followup during corticosteroid therapy by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. No difference in sIL-6R and sgp130 levels was observed between PMR patients and normal controls at disease onset or during followup. A significant correlation was found between the number of relapses and sIL-6R concentrations at baseline and after 1, 3, and 12 months of therapy. No correlation was found between sgp130 levels and the number of relapses. Cox multivariate analysis indicated that the best model for predicting relapses was identified by sIL-6R levels and the hemoglobin value at baseline. We found that high sIL-6R levels combined with low hemoglobin values resulted in a 10.1-fold increased risk of relapse. Our data support the identification of a potential prognostic marker of PMR outcome that might have important implications in clinical practice. Because targeting sIL-6R with blocking antibodies has proven useful in other rheumatic disorders, our results could suggest the opportunity to evaluate sIL-6R-blocking treatment in patients with PMR and elevated levels of sIL-6R at disease onset.

Adjuvant chemotherapy—yes or no? Prognostic markers in early breast cancer

The question of whether to offer adjuvant chemotherapy to patients with early-stage breast cancer continues to challenge clinicians on a daily basis. Many patients with node-negative or low-risk breast cancer could be spared the trauma of receiving chemotherapy, but more reliable prognostic markers are still needed to aid our therapy decision making. Gene expression profiling is a welcome product of the ‘omic’ era and several multi-gene expression panels (‘signatures’) have now been developed that show promise in predicting which breast cancer patients are likely to develop metastatic disease if adjuvant chemotherapy is not administered. The value of gene expression profiling as a prognostic tool in clinical practice is currently being appraised more fully in two large, prospective, randomised studies—TAILORx and MINDACT. These studies should provide level I evidence of the prognostic power of gene expression profiling and will hopefully allow us to one day quantify risk of progression in the individual patient and tailor treatment accordingly. Genetic profiling of circulating tumour cells and micrometastases should further enhance our understanding of breast cancer biology and allow us to personalise therapy based on functional maps of critical tumour pathways. Close collaboration between clinicians and scientists will be essential to achieve this goal.