Prognostic Factors In Elderly Patients Research Articles

The prognostic value of prognostic nutritional index and renal function indicators for mortality prediction in severe COVID-19 elderly patients: A retrospective study.

Identifying prognostic factors in elderly patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is crucial for clinical management. Recent evidence suggests malnutrition and renal dysfunction are associated with poor outcome. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model incorporating prognostic nutritional index (PNI), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and other parameters to predict mortality risk. This retrospective analysis included 155 elderly patients with severe COVID-19. Clinical data and outcomes were collected. Logistic regression analyzed independent mortality predictors. A joint predictor "L" incorporating PNI, eGFR, D-dimer, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was developed and internally validated using bootstrapping. Decreased PNI (OR = 1.103, 95% CI: 0.78-1.169), decreased eGFR (OR = 0.964, 95% CI: 0.937-0.992), elevated D-dimer (OR = 1.001, 95% CI: 1.000-1.004), and LDH (OR = 1.005, 95% CI: 1.001-1.008) were independent mortality risk factors (all P < .05). The joint predictor "L" showed good discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.863) and calibration. The bootstrapped area under the curve was 0.858, confirming model stability. A combination of PNI, eGFR, D-dimer, and LDH provides useful prognostic information to identify elderly patients with severe COVID-19 at highest mortality risk for early intervention. Further external validation is warranted.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival of elderly patients with unresected gastric cancer who received chemotherapy

This investigation aimed to explore the prognostic factors in elderly patients with unresected gastric cancer (GC) who have received chemotherapy and to develop a nomogram for predicting their cancer-specific survival (CSS). Elderly gastric cancer patients who have received chemotherapy but no surgery in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database between 2004 and 2015 were included in this study. Cox analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors, leading to the formulation of a nomogram. The nomogram was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves. The findings elucidated six prognostic factors encompassing grade, histology, M stage, radiotherapy, tumor size, and T stage, culminating in the development of a nomogram. The ROC curve indicated that the area under curve of the nomogram used to predict CSS for 3, 4, and 5 years in the training queue as 0.689, 0.708, and 0.731, and in the validation queue, as 0.666, 0.693, and 0.708. The calibration curve indicated a high degree of consistency between actual and predicted CSS for 3, 4, and 5 years. This nomogram created to predict the CSS of elderly patients with unresected GC who have received chemotherapy could significantly enhance treatment accuracy.

Thoracic radiotherapy timing and prognostic factors in elderly patients with limited‐stage small cell lung cancer

AbstractObjectiveThis study assessed the outcomes of elderly patients with limited‐stage small cell lung cancer (LS‐SCLC), which may be linked to the timing of thoracic radiotherapy (TRT) following chemotherapy.MethodsElderly patients (n = 78) with LS‐SCLC were divided into three groups depending on the timing of radiotherapy. The patients in the TRT group were stratified into early (TRT after 1–2 cycles of chemotherapy, n = 29), medium‐term (TRT after 3–4 cycles of chemotherapy, n = 33), and late (TRT after 5–6 cycles of chemotherapy, n = 16) TRT groups. The overall survival (OS) and progression‐free survival (PFS) were assessed and compared.ResultsThe medium‐term TRT group demonstrated significantly longer mPFS (20.12 months) and better mOS (35.97 months) than those in the other groups (PFS: P = 0.021;OS: P = 0.035). A pairwise comparison of the three groups revealed that those who received medium‐term TRT exhibited significantly improved PFS than the early (mPFS: 20.12 vs. 10.36 mouths, P = 0.018) and late (mPFS: 20.12 vs. 9.17 months, P = 0.016) TRT. The medium‐term TRT group demonstrated significantly improved OS than the early TRT (mOS: 35.97 vs. 25.22 months, P = 0.007) but not in comparison with the late TRT (mOS: 35.97 vs. 21.63 months, P = 0.100).ConclusionIn elderly patients with LS‐SCLC, the addition of TRT after 3–4 cycles of chemotherapy appears to be a viable and potentially beneficial treatment approach.

Combined Systemic Immune-inflammatory Index (SII) and Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) predict survival in elderly patients with hip fractures: a retrospective study

PurposeThe Systemic Immune-inflammatory Index (SII) and Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) have undergone comprehensive examination and validation in forecasting the outcomes of diverse medical conditions. Nevertheless, the correlation between the combined use of GNRI and SII metrics and hip fractures has yet to be elucidated. This study aimed to determine whether the amalgamation of SII and GNRI scores constitutes an independent prognostic factor for elderly patients with hip fractures.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of elderly patients admitted to our facility with hip fractures, encompassing both femoral neck and intertrochanteric fractures. Demographic information, experimental parameters, and postoperative complications were systematically recorded. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and Systemic Immunoinflammatory Index (SII) were meticulously computed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated, and optimal cutoff values for each parameter were determined. Subsequently, a multivariate Cox regression analysis was employed to assess the predictive utility of the SII–GNRI score in relation to 1-year postoperative mortality among elderly patients with hip fractures.ResultsIn a study involving 597 patients, 90 of whom experienced mortality within 1 year, it was observed that the SII-GNRI score in the group of patients who passed away was significantly higher compared to the group that survived. Following a multifactorial adjustment, it was established that a high SII–GNRI score served as an independent predictor of 1-year all-cause mortality in older patients with hip fractures. In addition to the SII–GNRI score, factors such as length of hospital stay, CCI > 2, and blood transfusion were also identified as independent risk factors for survival. Notably, the incidence of postoperative complications in patients with high SII–GNRI scores was significantly greater than in patients with low scores.ConclusionThe SII–GNRI score proves valuable in predicting the 1-year survival rate for elderly patients with hip fractures who have undergone surgery.

Prognostic Determinants of Anterior Large Vessel Occlusion in Acute Stroke in Elderly Patients.

This study investigated prognostic factors in elderly patients (80 years and older) undergoing mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for anterior circulation large vessel occlusion (LVO) in acute stroke treatment. Of 59 cases, 47.5% achieved a favorable outcome (mRS ≤ 3) at three months, with a mortality rate of 20.3%. Factors associated with better outcomes included younger age, lower admission National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, lower N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and D-dimer levels, the presence of the first pass effect (FPE), and successful recanalization. However, logistic regression showed that only lower admission NIHSS scores were significantly correlated with favorable outcomes. In addition, this study suggests that lower admission NT-proBNP and D-dimer levels could potentially serve as prognostic indicators for elderly LVO patients undergoing MT.

Nomogram for predicting occurrence and prognosis of liver metastasis in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study.

This study aimed to explore independent risk and prognostic factors in elderly patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (ECRLM) and generate nomograms for predicting the occurrence and overall survival (OS) rates of such patients. Elderly colorectal cancer patients (ECRC) from 2010 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this study. External validation relied on Chinese patients from the China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify liver metastasis (LM) risk variables, which were used to create a nomogram to estimate LM probabilities in patients with ECRC. Univariate and multivariable Cox analyses were performed to identify prognostic variables and further derive nomograms that could predict the OS of patients with ERCLM. Differences in lifespan were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Finally, the quality of the nomograms was verified using decision curve analysis (DCA), calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). In the SEER cohort, 32,330 patients were selected, of those, 3,012 (9.32%) were diagnosed with LM. A total of 188 ECRLM cases from a Chinese medical center were assigned for external validation. LM occurrence can be affected by 13 factors, including age at diagnosis, marital status, race, bone metastases, lung metastases, CEA level, tumor size, Grade, histology, primary site, T stage, N stage and sex. Furthermore, in ECRLM patients, 10 variables, including age at diagnosis, CEA level, tumor size, lung metastasis, bone metastasis, chemotherapy, surgery, N stage, grade, and race, have been shown to be independent prognostic predictors. The results from both internal and external validation revealed a high level of accuracy in predicting outcomes, as well as significant clinical utility, for the two nomograms. We created two nomograms to predict the occurrence and prognosis of LM in patients with ECRC, which would contribute significantly to the improvement in disease detection accuracy and the formulation of personalized cures for that particular demographic.

Geriatric nutritional risk index as a prognostic factor in elderly patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer: a propensity score-matched study.

The Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI) is a simple and validated tool used to assess the nutritional status of elderly patients and predict the risk of short-term postoperative complications, as well as the long-term prognosis, after cancer surgery. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the predictive value of GNRI for the long-term postoperative prognosis in elderly patients with primary non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) who underwent transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT). We retrospectively analyzed data from 292 elderly patients with primary NMIBC. Using X-tile software, we divided the cohort into two groups based on GNRI and determined the cut-off value for postoperative recurrence-free survival (RFS). Propensity score matching (PSM) with a ratio of 1:3, Kaplan-Meier analysis, log-rank test, and COX proportional hazards regression were used to assess the correlation between GNRI and prognosis and identify factors predicting recurrence and progression. In the entire cohort, the 3year recurrence group had significantly lower GNRI compared to the 3year non-recurrence group (P = 0.0109). The determined GNRI cut-off value was 93.82. After PSM, the low GNRI group had significantly lower RFS (P < 0.0001) and progression-free survival (PFS) (P = 0.0040) than the high GNRI group. Multivariate COX regression showed that GNRI independently predicted RFS (HR 2.108; 95% CI 1.266-3.512; P = 0.004) and PFS (HR 2.155; 95% CI 1.135-4.091; P = 0.019) in elderly patients with primary NMIBC. Preoperative GNRI is a prognostic marker for disease recurrence and progression in elderly patients with primary NMIBC undergoing TURBT.

A comparative study of elective nodal irradiation and involved field irradiation in elderly patients with advanced esophageal cancer.

This comparative study aimed to explore the feasibility of involved field irradiation (IFI) in the radiotherapy of elderly patients with advanced esophageal cancer, compared with elective nodal irradiation (ENI). A total of 245 elderly patients (age ≥70 years) with advanced esophageal cancer, who received radiotherapy in our department from January 2014 to December 2020, were divided into the ENI group (n=111) and the IFI group (n=134). Clinical efficacy, toxicities, survival rates, treatment failures, and multifactorial survival analyses were conducted for both groups. The ENI group and the IFI group showed no significant differences in terms of short-term efficacy (91.9% vs 91.0%, P=0.814), 1-year overall survival (OS) (81.1% vs 74.6%, P=0.228), 2-year OS (22.5% vs 25.4%, P= 0.603), 1-year progression-free survival (PFS) (56.8% vs 51.5%, P= 0.198), 2-year PFS (8.1% vs 9.0%, P=0.814), regional failures (38.7% vs 31.3%, P=0.226), and distant metastasis (21.6% vs 14.9%, P=0.174). The median overall survival (OS) was 19 months in the ENI group and 18 months in the IFI group (Log-rankχ 2=0.012, P=0.913). The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 13 months in the ENI group and 11 months in the IFI group (Log-rankχ 2=1.834, P=0.176). There were no significant statistical differences in both OS and PFS (P>0.05). The incidence of grade ≥3 radiation pneumonia and grade ≥3 radiation esophagitis in the IFI group was 8.2% and 11.2%, respectively, which were significantly lower than those in the ENI group (17.1%, P=0.034; 21.6%, P=0.026). Univariate analysis revealed that age, gender, T stage, N stage, and synchronous chemotherapy were factors affecting prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that age, gender, T stage, and synchronous chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors, with hazard ratios of 1.227, 1.466, 2.441, and 2.714, and P values of <0.001, 0.006, <0.001, and<0.001, respectively. IFI is a suitable choice for elderly patients with advanced esophageal cancer, as it yields similar efficacy to ENI while reducing toxicities. Age, gender, T stage, and synchronous chemotherapy are independent prognostic factors for elderly patients with esophageal cancer.

The pretreatment Controlling Nutritional Status score is an independent prognostic factor in elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Predicting prognosis is crucial in older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This study evaluated the prognostic impact of the controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, a simple nutritional index, for older DLBCL patients (≥65 years of age) treated with R-CHOP-like regimens in a retrospective, cohort study including 203 patients. The CONUT score was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.21, p = 0.032) in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. On receiver-operating characteristic analysis, the optimal cutoff value was 3. The CONUT score (≥3 or <3) effectively stratified older DLBCL patients, regardless of the International Prognostic Index (p = 0.71 for interaction). Further, the CONUT score independently affected initial dose intensity (odds ratio 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.95, p = 0.008), likely reflecting the patients’ status at diagnosis and affecting dose adjustments. In conclusion, the CONUT score is associated with a poorer prognosis in older DLBCL patients.

Prognostic Factor in Elderly Patients with Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Accepting Single Agent Immunotherapy

Prognostic Factor in Elderly Patients with Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Accepting Single Agent Immunotherapy

The fibrinogen-albumin ratio as a novel prognostic factor for elderly patients with osteosarcoma.

To analyze the prognostic value of fibrinogen-albumin ratio (FAR) in predicting the overall survival in elderly osteosarcoma patients. One hundred nineteen elderly osteosarcoma patients (> 40 years old) from 2 centers were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. The cutoff values of the biomarker were calculated via receiver operating characteristic curves, and the cohort was divided into high FAR group and low FAR group. The association between the FAR and clinical-pathological parameters was analyzed. And the prognosis of elderly osteosarcoma patients and the potential risk factors were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model. Finally, a clinical nomogram was constructed, and its predictive capacity was verified. According to receiver operating characteristic results, the cutoff value for FAR was 0.098, and the enrolled patients were divided into the low FAR group and high FAR group. The FAR was significantly correlated with several clinical-pathological characteristics, including age, tumor size, tumor stage, recurrence, and metastasis. Moreover, the multivariate Cox analyses results showed that the FAR, pathological fracture, and metastasis were independent risk factors for overall survival in elderly osteosarcoma patients. The predictive nomogram was subsequently constructed, representing satisfactory predictive performance for prognosis in elderly patients with osteosarcoma. The FAR value is a promising indicator for elderly osteosarcoma patients, which is correlated with the various clinical characteristics and prognosis. A clinical nomogram integrating FAR and other clinical indicators is a convenient and available tool to assess the prognosis and manage the individualized and precise treatment of elderly patients with osteosarcoma.

Correlation between color doppler flow pattern and molecular biology in elderly patients with colon cancer

ObjectiveTo investigate the correlation between the grade and type of color Doppler flow imaging (CDFI) and tumor-related cytokines in elderly patients with colon cancer.MethodsSeventy-six elderly patients with colorectal cancer admitted to Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital from July 2020 to June 2022 were selected. CDFI was used to analyze the blood flow grade and distribution type of tumor tissues, and ELISA was used to detect the levels of tumor-related cytokines in serum. Preoperative clinical data were collected and analyzed, and the correlation between measured cytokine levels and CDFI analysis results was further explored.ResultsCDFI blood flow grade showed significant difference in the different lengths, invasion depths and lymph node metastasis of tumors (all P < 0.001). In addition, serum levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and VEGF also showed statistical difference in all above different tumor-related factors (all P < 0.001). Further Pearson correlation analysis showed that CDFI blood flow grade and distribution types were both significantly positively correlated with above serum cytokine levels (r > 0, all P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that both CDFI blood flow grade and distribution types were poor prognostic factors in elderly patients with colon cancer. Regression analysis showed that serum levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and VEGF were independent risk factors for poor prognosis of colon cancer in elderly patients.ConclusionCDFI blood flow grade and tumor tissue distribution have potential significant correlations with tumor-associated cytokines in the serum of colon cancer patients. CDFI blood flow grading technique provides an important imaging method for dynamic observation of angiogenesis and blood flow changes in elderly patients with colon cancer. Abnormal changes in serum levels of tumor-related factors can be used as sensitive indicators to evaluate the therapeutic effect and prognosis of colon cancer.

Analysis of clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of elderly patients with renal cell carcinoma based on the SEER database.

To study the difference of clinical characteristics and prognostic factors from elderly patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC), the statistical analysis was carried out based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. The relevant clinical information of 19,472 RCC patients from 2010 to 2015 were collected, and the differences of clinicopathological characteristics and survival rate was analyzed by log-rank method and Chi square test, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression model was used to explore the independent risk factors affecting the long-term survival of RCC patients. Results showed that the proportion of elderly RCC patients in the 60-64-year group in 2010 was 15.20%, but the value elevated to 18.51% in 2015, and the Chi-square test revealed the significant correlation between elderly RCC patients with gender, race, American Joint Committee on cancer stage, T stage, N stage, and M stage. The difference of survival time between the 60-69 year, 70-79 year, 80-84 year, and 85+ year group was significant, and Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a negative effects of age on survival rate of RCC patients, indicating a worsening trend with increasing age. Cox proportional hazards model analysis further confirmed that age was the important independent prognostic factor. Our study reveals that the onset age of RCC in elderly population is gradually decreasing, and the malignant degree of elderly RCC patients is increasing with age. The female elderly population could be more susceptible to RCC than male elderly population, and 85+ year population could also be cancer susceptible with a higher lymph node metastasis rate, later tumor stage, and poor prognosis, suggesting that these elderly populations should pay more attention to the RCC screening.

Clinical features and prognostic factors of elderly patients with mantle cell lymphoma

Objective: To examine the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of elderly patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) and the impact of nutrition and underlying diseases on the prognosis of elderly patients with MCL. Methods: retrospectively analyzed 255 elderly patients with MCL from 11 medical centers, including Peking University Third Hospital between January 2000 and February 2021. We analyzed clinical data, such as age, gender, Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index score, and treatment options, and performed univariate and multivariate prognostic analysis. We performed a comprehensive geriatric assessment on elderly MCL patients with medical records that included retraceable underlying disease and albumin levels, and we investigated the impact of basic nutrition and underlying disorders on MCL prognosis in the elderly. Results: There were 255 senior individuals among the 795 MCL patients. Elderly MCL was more common in males (78.4%), with a median age of 69 yr (ages 65-88), and the majority (88.6%) were identified at a late stage. The 3-yr overall survival (OS) rate was 42.0%, with a 21.2% progression-free survival (PFS) rate. The overall response rate (ORR) was 77.3%, with a 33.3% total remission rate. Elderly patients were more likely than younger patients to have persistent underlying illnesses, such as hypertension. Multivariate analysis revealed that variables related with poor PFS included age of ≥80 (P=0.021), Ann Arbor stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ (P=0.003), high LDH level (P=0.003), involvement of bone marrow (P=0.014). Age of ≥80 (P=0.001) and a high LDH level (P=0.003) were risk factors for OS. The complete geriatric assessment revealed that renal deficiency was associated with poorer OS (P=0.047) . Conclusions: Elderly MCL patients had greater comorbidities. Age, LDH, renal function, bone marrow involvement, and Ann Arbor stage are all independent risk factors for MCL in the elderly.

Long-term outcomes and prognostic factors in elderly patients with breast cancer: single-institutional experience.

Despite advances in treatment, there is rising mortality in elderly patients with breast cancer. We aimed to conduct an audit of non-metastatic elderly breast cancer patients to understand the predictors of outcome. Data collection was done from electronic medical records. All time-to-event outcomes were analysed using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank test. Univariate and multi-variate analysis of known prognostic factors was also done. Any p-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. A total of 385 elderly (>70 years) breast cancer patients (range 70-95 years) were treated at our hospital from January 2013 to December 2016. The hormone receptor was positive in 284 (73.8%) patients; 69 (17.9%) patients had over-expression of HER2-neu, while 70 (18.2%) patients had triple-negative breast cancer. A large majority of women (N = 328, 85.9%) underwent mastectomy while only 54 (14.1%) had breast conservation surgery. Out of 134 patients who received chemotherapy, 111 patients received adjuvant, while the remaining 23 patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Only 15 (21.7%) patients of the 69 HER2-neu receptor-positive patients received adjuvant trastuzumab. Adjuvant radiation was given to 194 (50.3%) women based on the type of surgery and disease stage. Adjuvant hormone therapy was planned using letrozole in 158 (55.6%) patients, while tamoxifen was prescribed in 126 (44.4%). At the median follow up of 71.7 months, the 5-year overall survival, relapse-free survival, locoregional relapse-free survival, distant disease-free survival, breast cancer-specific survival were 75.3%, 74.2%, 84.8%, 76.1% and 84.5%. Age, tumour size, presence of lymphovascular invasion (LVSI) and molecular subtype emerged as independent predictors of survival on multi-variate analysis. The audit highlights the underutilisation of breast-conserving therapy and systemic therapy in the elderly. Increasing age and tumour size, presence of LVSI and molecular subtype were found to be strong predictors of outcome. The findings from this study will help to improve the current gaps in the management of breast cancer among the elderly.

OHCCPredictor: an online risk stratification model for predicting survival duration of older patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BackgroundAlthough the elderly constitute more than a third of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, they have not been adequately represented in treatment and prognosis studies. Thus, there is not enough evidence to guide the treatment of such patients. The objective of this study is to identify the prognostic factors of older patients with HCC and to construct a new prognostic model for predicting their overall survival (OS).Methods2,721 HCC patients aged ≥ 65 were extracted from the public database-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set with a ratio of 7:3. 101 patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2017 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine were identified as the external validation set. Univariate cox regression analyses and multivariate cox regression analyses were adopted to identify these independent prognostic factors. A predictive nomogram-based risk stratification model was proposed and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and a decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThese attributes including age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were the independent prognostic factors for older patients with HCC while predicting survival duration. We found that the nomogram provided a good assessment of OS at 1, 3, and 5 years in older patients with HCC (1-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.823 (95%CI 0.803–0.845); internal validation set: AUC = 0.847 (95%CI 0.818–0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.732 (95%CI 0.521–0.943)); 3-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.813 (95%CI 0.790–0.837); internal validation set: AUC = 0.844 (95%CI 0.812–0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.780 (95%CI 0.674–0.887)); 5-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.839 (95%CI 0.806–0.872); internal validation set: AUC = 0.800 (95%CI 0.751–0.849); external validation set: AUC = 0.821 (95%CI 0.727–0.914)). The calibration curves showed that the nomogram was with strong calibration. The DCA indicated that the nomogram can be used as an effective tool in clinical practice. The risk stratification of all subgroups was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In the stratification analysis of surgery, larger resection (LR) achieved a better survival curve than local destruction (LD), but a worse one than segmental resection (SR) and liver transplantation (LT) (p < 0.0001). With the consideration of the friendship to clinicians, we further developed an online interface (OHCCPredictor) for such a predictive function (https://juntaotan.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp_hcc/). With such an easily obtained online tool, clinicians will be provided helpful assistance in formulating personalized therapy to assess the prognosis of older patients with HCC.ConclusionsAge, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, AFP level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were independent prognostic factors for elderly patients with HCC. The constructed nomogram model based on the above factors could accurately predict the prognosis of such patients. Besides, the developed online web interface of the predictive model provide easily obtained access for clinicians.

Real‐world data on the efficacy and safety of immune‐checkpoint inhibitors in elderly patients with non‐small cell lung cancer

Immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are effective against advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, whether the efficacy and safety of ICI treatment in elderly patients are similar to those in younger patients is unclear. This study was designed to address this question. We enrolled patients who received ICI monotherapy in Japan between December 2015 and December 2017; those ≥75 years of age comprised the elderly group. We compared the efficacy and safety of ICI monotherapy in elderly patients with those in younger patients and explored prognostic factors in elderly patients. We enrolled 676 patients; 137 (20.3%) were assigned to the elderly group. The median age of the elderly and younger groups was 78 (range, 75-85) and 66 (range, 34-74) years. The median progression-free survival (4.8 months vs. 3.3 months, p = 0.1589) and median overall survival (12.3 months vs. 13.0 months, p = 0.5587) were similar between the elderly and younger groups. Multivariate analysis revealed that a significantly better OS in the elderly group was associated with better responses to first- or second-line ICI treatment (p = 0.011) and more immune-related adverse events (irAEs) (p = 0.02). IrAEs that led to ICI discontinuation occurred in 34 of 137 patients (24.8%) in the elderly group, and their survival was significantly higher than that in those who did not have irAEs. ICI is also effective in elderly NSCLC patients, and treatment discontinuation due to irAEs may be a good prognostic marker.

The Optimal Treatment Approaches and Prognostic Factors In Elderly Patients with Advanced Stage Biliary Tract Tumors

The Optimal Treatment Approaches and Prognostic Factors In Elderly Patients with Advanced Stage Biliary Tract Tumors

Competitive Risk Model Nomogram to Predict Prognosis in Patients Aged Over 65 Years with nonmetastatic Cervical Cancer: A SEER Population-Based Study.

Objective: The prognostic factors for elderly patients with cervical cancer differ from those of younger patients. Competitive risk events could cause biases in the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model. This study aimed to construct a competitive risk model (CRM) nomogram for patients aged > 65 years with nonmetastatic cervical cancer. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and a total of 1856 patients from 18 cancer registries across the United States diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were included. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were used to compare intergroup survival. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) and Fine and Gray's test were used to determine the impact of competitive risk events on prognosis. The CRM nomogram was internally and externally validated using time-dependent receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (time-AUC), Brier scores, Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Analyses revealed that histology, age, the International Federation of Gynaecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage, number of in situ malignancies, chemotherapy, radiotherapy (RT), and surgery were independent prognostic factors. The CRM nomogram accurately predicted 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS). The C-indexes and Brier scores of the CRM nomogram were 0.641 and 0.094, respectively, at the 1-year cut-off in the training set. The time-AUC of the CRM nomogram at the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year intervals in the training set were 77.6%, 77.3%, and 74.5%, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated a favorable concordance. DCA suggested that the nomogram had a good net benefit. Therefore, the Cox model underestimated the weight of risk factors compared to CRM. Conclusions: This study presents the CRM nomogram to predict DSS in patients aged > 65 years with nonmetastatic cervical cancer. It can help clinicians implement more accurate personalized diagnostic and treatment modalities for elderly patients with cervical cancer.

Value of serum procalcitonin and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score on predicting the prognosis of sepsis in elderly patients

To explore the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score on predicting prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis. A retrospective cohort study, patients with sepsis who admitted to the department of emergency and the department of geriatric medicine of Peking University Third Hospital from March 2020 to June 2021 were enrolled. Patients' demographics, routine laboratory examinations, APACHE II score that within 24 hours of admission were obtained from their electronic medical records. The prognosis during the hospitalization and one year after discharge were collected, retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors were performed. And Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to examine overall survival. A total of 116 elderly patients met inclusion criteria, 55 were alive and 61 were died. On univariate analysis, clinical variables such as lactic acid [Lac, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.07-1.26, P < 0.001], PCT (HR = 1.02, 95%CI was 1.01-1.04, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase (ALT, HR = 1.00,95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.143), aspartate aminotransferase (AST, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.01, P = 0.014), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P < 0.001), hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.001), creatine kinase (CK, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.002), MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase (CK-MB, HR = 1.01, 95%CI was 1.01-1.02, P < 0.001), Na (HR = 1.02, 95%CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.183), blood urea nitrogen (BUN, HR = 1.02, 95%CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.139), fibrinogen (FIB, HR = 0.85, 95%CI was 0.71-1.02, P = 0.078), neutrophil ratio (NEU%, HR = 0.99, 95%CI was 0.97-1.00, P = 0.114), platelet count (PLT, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 0.99-1.00, P = 0.108) and total bile acid (TBA, HR = 1.01, 95%CI was 1.00-1.02, P = 0.096) shown to be associated with poor prognosis. On multivariable analysis, level of PCT was an important factor influencing the outcome of sepsis (HR = 1.03, 95%CI was 1.01-1.05, P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that there was no significant difference with respect to the overall survival between the two groups, with patients of PCT ≤ 0.25 μg/L and PCT > 0.25 μg/L (P = 0.220). It also showed that the overall survival rate in patients with high APACHE II score (> 27 points) was significantly lower than that in patients with low APACHE II score (≤ 27 points, P = 0.015). Serum PCT level is valuable prognostic factors of elderly patients with sepsis, and higher APACHE II score (> 27 points) indicates a poor prognosis.