Prognostic Discrimination Research Articles

Relationship of LVEF and Myocardial Scar to Long-Term Mortality Risk and Mode of Death in Patients With Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy.

Nonischemic cardiomyopathy is a leading cause of reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and is associated with high mortality risk from progressive heart failure and arrhythmias. Myocardial scar on cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging is increasingly recognized as a risk marker for adverse outcomes; however, left ventricular dysfunction remains the basis for determining a patient's eligibility for primary prophylaxis with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We investigated the relationship of LVEF and scar with long-term mortality and mode of death in a large cohort of patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy. This study is a prospective, longitudinal outcomes registry of 1020 consecutive patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy who underwent clinical cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging for the assessment of LVEF and scar at 3 centers. During a median follow-up of 5.2 (interquartile range, 3.8, 6.6) years, 277 (27%) patients died. On survival analysis, LVEF ≤35% and scar were strongly associated with all-cause (log-rank test P=0.002 and P<0.001, respectively) and cardiac death (P=0.001 and P<0.001, respectively). Whereas scar was strongly related to sudden cardiac death (SCD; P=0.001), there was no significant association between LVEF ≤35% and SCD risk (P=0.57). On multivariable analysis including established clinical factors, LVEF and scar are independent risk markers of all-cause and cardiac death. The addition of LVEF provided incremental prognostic value but insignificant discrimination improvement by C-statistic for all-cause and cardiac death, but no incremental prognostic value for SCD. Conversely, scar extent demonstrated significant incremental prognostic value and discrimination improvement for all 3 end points. On net reclassification analysis, the addition of LVEF resulted in no significant improvement for all-cause death (11.0%; 95% CI, -6.2% to 25.9%), cardiac death (9.8%; 95% CI, -5.7% to 29.3%), or SCD (7.5%; 95% CI, -41.2% to 42.9%). Conversely, the addition of scar extent resulted in significant reclassification improvement of 25.5% (95% CI, 11.7% to 41.0%) for all-cause death, 27.0% (95% CI, 11.6% to 45.2%) for cardiac death, and 40.6% (95% CI, 10.5% to 71.8%) for SCD. Myocardial scar and LVEF are both risk markers for all-cause and cardiac death in patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy. However, whereas myocardial scar has strong and incremental prognostic value for SCD risk stratification, LVEF has no incremental prognostic value over clinical measures. Scar assessment should be incorporated into patient selection criteria for primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement.

Prognostic Value of Third Cervical Vertebra Skeletal Muscle Index in Oral Cavity Cancer: A Retrospective Study.

To assess the prognostic utility of third cervical vertebra skeletal muscle index (C3 SMI) measured from preoperative head and neck computed tomography (CT) in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Retrospective study. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 125 patients who underwent primary curative surgery for OSCC between 2009 and 2017. Their preoperative C3 SMI was calculated by adjusting the C3 cross-sectional area delineated on head and neck CT by body height squared. A Cox proportional hazard model was employed to identify prognostic factors, and a novel nomogram based on C3 SMI was built for individualized survival prediction. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, high C3 SMI was significantly associated with higher 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) than low C3 SMI. In multivariate analysis, low C3 SMI was an independent risk factor for poor DFS and OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.197; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.170-4.512, P= .032 and HR: 2.143; 95% CI, 1.232-3.728, P= .007, respectively). The concordance-index (C-index) of the nomogram based on C3 SMI was 0.814 for OS, higher than that of the nomogram based on tumor-node-metastasis staging alone (C-index=0.731). C3 SMI might serve as a novel prognosticator in OSCC patients undergoing curative surgery, and the nomogram based on C3 SMI might provide good prognostic discrimination ability for individualized survival prediction. IV Laryngoscope, 131:E2257-E2265, 2021.

Biomarker testing in MCI patients\u2014deciding who to test

BackgroundWe aimed to derive an algorithm to define the optimal proportion of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in whom cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing is of added prognostic value.MethodsMCI patients were selected from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (n = 402). Three-year progression probabilities to dementia were predicted using previously published models with and without CSF data (amyloid-beta1-42 (Abeta), phosphorylated tau (p-tau)). We incrementally augmented the proportion of patients undergoing CSF, starting with the 10% patients with prognostic probabilities based on clinical data around the median (percentile 45–55), until all patients received CSF. The optimal proportion was defined as the proportion where the stepwise algorithm showed similar prognostic discrimination (Harrell’s C) and accuracy (three-year Brier scores) compared to CSF testing of all patients. We used the BioFINDER study (n = 221) for validation.ResultsThe optimal proportion of MCI patients to receive CSF testing selected by the stepwise approach was 50%. CSF testing in only this proportion improved the performance of the model with clinical data only from Harrell’s C = 0.60, Brier = 0.198 (Harrell’s C = 0.61, Brier = 0.197 if the information on magnetic resonance imaging was available) to Harrell’s C = 0.67 and Brier = 0.190, and performed similarly to a model in which all patients received CSF testing. Applying the stepwise approach in the BioFINDER study would again select half of the MCI patients and yielded robust results with respect to prognostic performance.InterpretationCSF biomarker testing adds prognostic value in half of the MCI patients. As such, we achieve a CSF saving recommendation while simultaneously retaining optimal prognostic accuracy.

Development of a novel gene signature to predict prognosis and response to PD-1 blockade in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

ABSTRACT Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the most common kidney malignancy characterized by a poor prognosis. The treatment efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) also varies widely in advanced ccRCC. We aim to construct a robust gene signature to improve the prognostic discrimination and prediction of ICIs for ccRCC patients. In this study, adopting differentially expressed genes from seven ccRCC datasets in GEO (Gene Expression Omnibus), a novel signature (FOXM1&TOP2A) was constructed in TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) database by LASSO and Cox regression. Survival and time-dependent ROC analysis revealed the strong predictive ability of our signature in discovery set, two online validation sets and one tissue microarray (TMA) from our institution. High-risk group based on the signature comprises more high-grade (G3&G4) and advanced pathologic stage (stageIII/IV) tumors and presents hyperactivation of cell cycle process according to the functional analysis. Meanwhile, high-risk tumors demonstrate an immunosuppressive phenotype with more infiltrations of regulatory T cells (Tregs), macrophages and high expressions of genes negatively regulating anti-tumor immunity. Low-risk tumors have an improved response to anti-PD-1 therapy and the predictive ability of our signature is better than other recognized biomarkers in ccRCC. A nomogram containing this signature showed a high predictive accuracy with AUCs of 0.90 and 0.84 at 3 and 5 years. Overall, this robust signature could predict prognosis, evaluate immune microenvironment and response to anti-PD-1 therapy in ccRCC, which is very promising in clinical promotion.

Prognostic Performance of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade With Artificial Intelligence for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated With Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined With Sorafenib.

PurposeTo establish albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) grade-based nomograms, as well as to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model to compare the prognostic performance and discrimination of these two grades for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with sorafenib as an initial treatment.MethodsThis multicenter retrospective study included patients from three hospitals between January 2013 and August 2018. In the training cohort, independent risk factors associated with overall survival (OS) were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. The nomograms and ANN were established and then validated in two validation cohorts.ResultsA total of 504 patients (319, 61, and 124 patients from hospitals A, B, and C, respectively) were included. The median OS was 15.2, 26.9, and 14.8 months in the training cohort and validation cohorts 1 and 2, respectively (P = 0.218). In the training cohort, both ALBI grade and CTP grade were identified as independent risk factors. The ALBI grade-based and CTP grade-based nomograms were established separately and showed similar prognostic performance and discrimination when validated in the validation cohorts (C-index in validation cohort 1: 0.799 vs. 0.779, P = 0.762; in validation cohort 2: 0.700 vs. 0.693, P = 0.803). The ANN model showed that the ALBI grade had higher importance in survival prediction than the CTP grade.ConclusionsThe ALBI grade and CTP grade have comparable prognostic performance for HCC patients treated with TACE combined with sorafenib. ALBI grades 1 and 2 have the potential to act as a stratification factor for clinical trials on the combination therapy of TACE and systemic therapy.

Tumor Burden Dictates Prognosis Among Patients Undergoing Resection of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Tool to Guide Post-Resection Adjuvant Chemotherapy?

While tumor burden (TB) has been associated with outcomes among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, the role of overall TB in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains poorly defined. Patients undergoing curative-intent resection of ICC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from a multi-institutional database. The impact of TB on overall (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) was evaluated in the multi-institutional database and validated externally. Among 1101 patients who underwent curative-intent resection of ICC, 624 (56.7%) had low TB, 346 (31.4%) medium TB, and 131 (11.9%) high TB. OS incrementally worsened with higher TB (5-year OS; low TB: 48.3% vs medium TB: 29.8% vs high TB: 17.3%, p < 0.001). Similarly, patients with low TB had better DFS compared with medium and high TB patients (5-year DFS: 38.3% vs 18.7% vs 6.9%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, TB was independently associated with OS (medium TB: HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.14-1.71; high TB: HR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.46-2.45) and DFS (medium TB, HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.33-1.96; high TB: HR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.56-2.64). Survival analysis revealed an excellent prognostic discrimination using the TB among the external validation cohort (3-year OS; low TB: 44.8%, medium TB: 29.3%; high TB: 23.3%, p = 0.03; 3-year DFS: low TB: 32.7%, medium TB: 10.7%; high TB: 0%, p < 0.001). While neoadjuvant chemotherapy was not associated with survival across the TB groups, receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with increased survival among patients with high TB (5-year OS: 24.4% vs 13.4%, p = 0.02). Overall TB dictated prognosis among patients with resectable ICC. TB may be used as a tool to help guide post-resection treatment strategies.

Nodal metastasis size predicts disease-free survival in cutaneous head and neck squamous cell carcinoma involving the parotid but not cervical nodes.

The 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer nodal (N) staging of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (cSCCHN) is largely based on lymph node metastasis size, despite conflicting data in the literature. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of largest node size in cSCCHN. Retrospective analysis of 94 patients undergoing curative-intent treatment for nodal cSCCHN with surgery ± radiotherapy at Liverpool Hospital, Sydney, Australia was conducted. Survival outcomes were assessed using multivariate Cox regression. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). Objective measures of model performance were used in exploratory analyses to identify optimal size thresholds for predicting survival. Nodal metastasis size significantly predicted DFS on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.46; P = 0.008). This prognostic impact occurred predominantly in parotid metastases (hazard ratio 1.27; 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.51; P = 0.006); each 1 cm increase in size increased the risk of recurrence or death by 27%, irrespective of the number of involved nodes. In parotid metastases, size thresholds of ≤3, 3-4.5 and >4.5 cm optimized prognostic discrimination. Extranodal extension (ENE) was associated with decreased DFS in nodes ≤3 cm in size (P = 0.025), but not in those >3 cm (P = 0.744). Size is an important prognostic factor in cSCCHN with parotid metastases, with optimal thresholds of ≤3, >3-4.5 and >4.5 cm. The prognostic impact of ENE was seen only in nodal metastases ≤3 cm in size. These results may have important implications for node size thresholds and inclusion of ENE in the American Joint Committee on Cancer N staging categories.

A Modified Pathological N Stage Including Status of Tumor Deposits in Colorectal Cancer With Nodal Metastasis.

BackgroundThe American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th classification states that colorectal cancer (CRC) is classified as N1c stage when regional lymph nodes (LNs) are negative and tumor deposits (TDs) are positive. However, how to classify TDs when regional LNs are positive remains unclear. The current study aimed to investigate the possibility of combining positive LNs and positive TDs to develop a modified pathological N (mpN) stage for CRC.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed 9,198 patients with stage III CRC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program who underwent surgery (6,440 in the training cohort and 2,758 the validation cohort). The combination of positive LNs and TD status was defined as mpN stage. Overall survival (OS) according to mpN and pathological N (pN) stages was analyzed by the Kaplan–Meier method. The area under the curves (AUCs) and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) were applied to assess the predictive discrimination abilities and goodness-of-fit of the model. The clinical benefits were measured using decision curve analyses. The validation cohort was used to validate the results.ResultsAUC analysis showed that the prognostic discrimination of mpN stage (AUC = 0.628, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.616–0.640) was better than that of pN stage (AUC = 0.618, 95% CI, 0.606–0.630, p = 0.006) for OS. The AIC demonstrated that mpN stage (AIC = 30,217) also showed superior model-fitting compared with pN stage (AIC = 30,257) and decision curve analyses revealed that mpN stage had better clinical benefits than pN stage. Similar results were found in the validation cohort.ConclusionsAmong patients with CRC and LN metastasis, mpN stage might be superior to pN stage for assessing prognosis and survival, suggesting that TD status should be included in the pN stage.

Validation of the Canadian syncope risk score in a large prospective international multicenter study

Abstract Background Management and risk stratification of patients with syncope in the emergency department (ED) is often challenging. In an effort to support ED physicians in disposition decisions, the Canadian Syncope Risk Score (CSRS) was developed to predict 30-day serious outcomes. Methods The CSRS was developed in a Canadian multicenter study and contains nine predictors: predisposition to vasovagal syncope, heart disease, systolic pressure &amp;lt;90 or &amp;gt;180mmHg in the ED, troponin level &amp;gt;99th percentile, abnormal QRS axis, QRS duration &amp;gt;130ms, QTc interval &amp;gt;480ms and an ED diagnosis of vasovagal or cardiac syncope. Patients can achieve a CSRS score between −3 and +11 points. We validated the CSRS in a large prospective international multicenter study recruiting patients 40 years or older presenting to the ED with a syncopal event within the last 12 hours. Recruitment centers contained smaller provincial hospitals, as well as big University Hospitals in eight countries on three continents. Primary outcome measure were 30-day serious arrhythmic and non-arrhythmic adverse events, as defined by the authors of the original score. Results 1581 patients were eligible for this analysis. The population in this validation cohort was older (mean age 68 vs 54 years) and had a considerably higher rate of serious outcomes compared to the derivation cohort (n=186 (11.8%) vs n=147 (3.6%)). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the CSRS was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86–0.91) and significantly higher compared to the validated OESIL score (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71–0.78, p&amp;lt;0.001). Calibration curve analysis showed an underestimation of risk in patients with a low CSRS and an overestimation in patients with a high CSRS. The rate of observed serious outcomes within 30d increased from 0.8% in the very low risk group (CSRS equal to or below −2) to 48% in the (very) high risk group (CSRS equal to or above 4, Hazard ratio 79.4, 95% CI 11.1–570.9). A Kaplan-Meier plot was used to visualize rates of serious outcomes in three different risk groups (Figure). Conclusion This is the first validation of the Canadian Syncope Risk Score in a large international syncope cohort. The prognostic discrimination of the CSRS for 30-day serious outcomes was very good in our validation cohort and comparable to that of the Canadian derivation study. Despite suboptimal calibration, prognostic analysis showed a high rate of serious outcomes in the CSRS (very) high risk group and a low rate of serious outcomes in the very low risk group. Allowing the clinical judgement of the ED physician in the form of suspected syncope etiology to be a part of the score seems to largely contribute to the high performance of the CSRS. Additional validation studies might be needed to further increase the accuracy of the CSRS in different patient populations with a different incidence of outcomes in settings outside of Canada. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Swiss National Science Foundation; Swiss Heart Foundation

A Modified Tumor-Node-Metastasis Classification for Primary Operable Colorectal Cancer.

BackgroundThe American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification for colorectal cancer (CRC) has limited ability to predict prognosis.MethodsWe included 45 379 eligible stage I-III CRC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Patients were randomly assigned individually to a training (n = 31 772) or an internal validation cohort (n = 13 607). External validation was performed in 10 902 additional patients. Patients were divided according to T and N stage permutations. Survival analyses were conducted by a Cox proportional hazard model and Kaplan-Meier analysis, with T1N0 as the reference. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve and Akaike information criteria were applied for prognostic discrimination and model fitting, respectively. Clinical benefits were further assessed by decision curve analyses.ResultsWe created a modified TNM (mTNM) classification: stages I (T1-2N0-1a); IIA (T1N1b, T2N1b, T3N0); IIB (T1-2N2a-2b, T3N1a-1b, T4aN0); IIC (T3N2a, T4aN1a-2a, T4bN0); IIIA (T3N2b, T4bN1a); IIIB (T4aN2b, T4bN1b); and IIIC (T4bN2a-2b). In the internal validation cohort, compared with the AJCC 8th TNM classification, the mTNM classification showed superior prognostic discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.675 vs 0.667, respectively; 2-sided P < .001) and better model fitting (Akaike information criteria = 70 937 vs 71 238, respectively). Similar findings were obtained in the external validation cohort. Decision curve analyses revealed that the mTNM had superior net benefits over the AJCC 8th TNM classification in the internal and external validation cohorts.ConclusionsThe mTNM classification provides better prognostic discrimination than AJCC 8th TNM classification, with good applicability in various populations and settings, to help better stratify stage I-III CRC patients into prognostic groups.

A Modified Tumor-Node-Metastasis Classification for Stage III Colorectal Cancers Based on Treating Tumor Deposits as Positive Lymph Nodes.

Background: The tumor-node-metastasis classification of the American Joint Committee on Cancer classified tumor deposits (TDs) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) without lymph node (LN) metastasis as N1c, but the classification of TDs in patients with LN metastases remains controversial. This study investigated the probability of regarding TDs as positive LNs (pLNs) in pN stage and estimated its prognostic ability in CRC.Methods: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to analyze CRC patients who underwent surgical therapy (14,906 training cohort, 6,384 validation cohort). A modified pN stage (mpN) was identified using the number of pLNs plus TDs. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier survival curves, and significant prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Prognostic ability was estimated using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Clinical benefit was measured by the decision curve analyses (DCA). The results were validated using the validation cohort.Results: Both the pN and mpN stages were independent prognostic factors in CRC according to univariate and multivariate analyses. The AUC analysis showed that the mpN stage had better prognostic discrimination for OS than the pN stage (0.612 vs. 0.605, P < 0.001). The AIC demonstrated that the mpN stage also showed superior model-fitting compared with the pN stage (49,756 vs. 49,841). The DCA further revealed that the mpN stage had better clinical benefits than the pN stage. The validation cohort showed similar findings.Conclusions: We concluded that counting TDs as pLNs may be superior to the pN stage when assessing the prognosis of CRC patients.

Equipping the American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging for Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma with Tumor Grade: A Novel Staging System.

Background The 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) outperforms its previous version in reproducibility but not in survival discrimination. Tumor grade, an indicator of the aggressive biology of PDAC, has been suggested as a reliable prognostic factor. This study aimed to construct a novel staging system with greater prognostication for resectable PDAC by incorporating tumor grade into the 8th AJCC system. Methods A total of 9966 patients with resectable PDAC from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were randomly separated into training and interval validation sets. Another 324 patients from our center were included as an external validation set. We proposed a novel staging system by sorting the substages yielded by a combination of T, N, and tumor grade based on their overall survival (OS) and grouping them into several stages. Prognostic homogeneity and discrimination were determined using the likelihood ratio χ2 and the linear trend χ2 test, respectively. Prognostic accuracies were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Results Using the 8th AJCC system, the prognosis of patients within the same stage was quite heterogeneous among different substages. The multivariate Cox model identified the tumor grade (hazard ratio 1.333, 95% confidence interval 1.250–1.423, p < 0.001) was an independent prognostic factor of the OS. In the training set, the AUC, homogeneity, and discriminatory ability were superior for the novel staging system than for the 8th AJCC system (0.642 vs. 0.615, 403.4 vs. 248.6, and 335.1 vs. 218.0, respectively). Similar results were observed in the internal and external validation sets. Conclusions The novel staging system incorporating tumor grade into the 8th AJCC system was associated with better prognostic accuracy, homogeneity, and discriminatory ability among resectable PDAC patients. Moreover, the novel staging system also allowed possibly adjuvant chemotherapy decisions.

Prognostic nomogram for predicting survival in patients with high grade endometrial stromal sarcoma: a Surveillance Epidemiology, and End Results database analysis

ObjectiveHigh grade endometrial stromal sarcoma is a rare and highly malignant tumor that lacks a prognostic model. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic nomogram predicting the...

Number of nodal metastases and the American Joint Committee on cancer staging of head and neck cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma: A multicenter study.

We aimed to determine if the number of nodal metastases is an independent predictor of survival in HNcSCC, whether it provides additional prognostic information to the AJCC N and TNM stage and identify optimal cut-points for risk stratification. Retrospective multi-institutional cohort study of patients with parotid and/or cervical nodal metastases from HNcSCC treated with curative intent by surgery ± adjuvant therapy. The impact of number of nodal metastases on disease-specific and overall survival was assessed using multivariate Cox regression. Optimal cut-points for prognostic discrimination modelled using the AIC, BIC, C-index and PVE. The study cohort included 1128 patients, with 962 (85.3%) males, median age of 72.9 years (range: 18-100 years) and median follow-up 3.4 years. Adjuvant radiotherapy was administered to 946 (83.9%) patients. Based on objective measures of model performance, number of nodal metastases was classified as 1-2 (N = 816), 3-4 (N = 162) and ≥5 (N = 150) nodes. In multivariate analyses, the risk of disease-specific mortality progressively increased with 3-4 nodes (HR, 1.58; 95% CI: 1.03-2.42; p = 0.036) and ≥5 nodes (HR, 2.91; 95% CI: 1.99-4.25; p < 0.001) with similar results for all-cause mortality. This simple categorical variable provided superior prognostic information to the TNM stage. Increasing number of nodal metastases is an independent predictor of mortality in HNcSCC, with categorization as 1-2, 3-4 and ≥5 nodes optimizing risk stratification and providing superior prognostic information to TNM stage. These findings may aid in the development of future staging systems as well as identification of high-risk patients in clinical trials.

Long-term predictive value of stroke volume index obtained from right heart catheterization: Insights from the veterans affairs clinical assessment, reporting, and tracking program.

BackgroundRight heart catheterization‐derived hemodynamic parameters have been associated with short‐term prognosis.HypothesisHemodynamic parameters will be associated with long‐term prognosis.MethodsRetrospective cohort study from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program included patients who underwent an index right heart catheterization between 2008 and 2016. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between stroke volume index and all‐cause mortality.ResultsFor the final cohort of 37 209 patients, mean follow‐up was 3.7 ± 2.5 years. All‐cause mortality was 42.0% in the low (<35 cc/beat/m2) compared with 33.2% in the normal stroke volume index group (≥35 cc/beat/m2). In adjusted analysis, low stroke volume was significantly associated with higher mortality risk (HR (95% CI) 1.14 (1.10‐1.18); P < .001) independent of clinical parameters. The area under the curve (AUC) for continuous measures of stroke volume index at predicting mortality in a Cox proportional hazard model was 0.56 at 3 years. When stroke volume index was combined with 14 clinical covariates, the AUC was 0.70 at 3 years. The addition of stroke volume index to these clinical covariates did not increase the discriminatory ability of the model at 1 year in a clinically meaningful way (integrated discrimination improvement index = 0.0021, 95% CI: 0.0010‐0.0034).ConclusionsThe long‐term prognostic value of right heart catheterization‐derived stroke volume index appears to be marginal. While there was a weak association of low stroke volume index and excess mortality, inclusion of this parameter to a set of clinical covariates did not improve prognostic discrimination.

Proposal of a novel subclassification of pN3b for improvement the prognostic discrimination ability of gastric cancer patients

IntroductionIn the recent edition of TNM staging system, pN3b gastric cancer were separated into the staging system for better prognosis accuracy. The definition of pN3b contains a large range of metastasis lymph nodes (mLNs). However, few studies have evaluated the prognosis of pN3b patients and it remains unknown whether these patients were reasonably assigned into the same substage. Materials and methodsA total of 642 pN3b patients from a multi-institutional cohort in China were included. Disease-specific survival (DSS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors. Restricted cubic spine model was used to specify the association between the continuous variables and the logarithm Hazard ratios (HRs). The optimal cut-off value of mLNs for DSS was identified using the X-tile software. ResultsThe 5-year DSS rate of total pN3b cohort was 15.4%. The smooth curves showed a non-linear association between the mLNs and the logarithm HRs. All pN3b gastric cancer patients were divided into two subclassifications (pN3b1: 16-24 mLNs, pN3b2: ≥25 mLNs). Significant survival difference was observed between two subclassifications (P = 0.048). Additionally, more LNs examined could decrease the death risk of pN3b patients and bring survival benefit only in pN3b1 patients, but not in pN3b2 patients. ConclusionsWe proposed a novel subclassification of pN3b patients, which assigned patients into two subclassifications with significant survival difference. Future study should explore the prognosis value based on this novel subclassification in TNM staging system.

Hemithyroidectomy: Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in Low Risk Group Patients

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is the most prevalent histologic subtype of thyroid cancer accounting for more than 80% of all cases. A single size threshold of 4 cm maximized prognostic discrimination with tumors &gt;4 cm associated with a five times higher risk of recurrence than those ≤4 cm. The purpose of this present study was to determine an effective treatment strategy for patients with small unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma in a low risk group below tumor size ≤ 4 cm.

Weighted lymph node ratio: New tool in the assessment of postoperative staging of the neck dissection in HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients.

The objective of this study is to assess a new parameter, the weighted lymph node ratio (WLNR), which incorporates prognostic information regarding the number of metastatic nodes with extracapsular spread and the lymph node yield for pN0 patients to the lymph node ratio. We studied retrospectively 1118 patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with a neck dissection. We obtained a classification with four categories based on the WLNR values. WLNR classification had a higher prognostic discrimination capacity and a more homogeneous distribution in the number of patients included in each of the categories than the pTNM classification. The WLNR improved the predictive capacity of the eighth edition of the pTNM classification and it can be a useful tool in the assessment of the postoperative staging of the neck dissections in HNSCC patients.

Novel Nomograms Individually Predicting Overall Survival of Non-metastatic Colon Cancer Patients.

Background: This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic nomogram for predicting non-metastatic colon cancer.Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program was utilized to analyze patients who underwent surgical therapy (25,350 for training, 10,860 for validation). Nomograms were created depending upon multivariate analysis in the training cohort and were compared to current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classifications. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs), Akaike's information criterions (AICs), and calibration curves were used. The clinical benefit was measured using decision curve analyses (DCAs). The validation cohort was used to validate the results.Results: Nomogram 1 included age, gender, histological grade, T stage, number of retrieved lymph nodes, tumor size, and N stage. Nomogram 2 included age, gender, histological grade, T stage, number of retrieved lymph nodes, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes. The prognostic discrimination of nomogram 1 (AUC, 0.729, 95% CI, 0.723–0.736) was better than that of nomogram 2 (AUC, 0.704, 95% CI, 0.698–0.710, p < 0.001) in five-year overall survival in the training cohort. Nomogram 1 (AIC, 137,319) also showed superior model-fitting compared to nomogram 2 (AIC, 137,453). Similarity, nomogram 1 was better than the AJCC 6th and 8th TNM classifications. DCA revealed that nomogram 1 had a superior net benefit than other models. These findings were validated using the validation cohort.Conclusions: The proposed nomogram 1 was a better prognostic prediction model with better discrimination and superior model-fitting for patients with non-metastatic colon cancer, which might prove to be clinically helpful.

Cardiopulmonary Exercise Test in heart failure: A Sine qua non

A robust literature, over the last years, supports the indication of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in patients with cardiovascular diseases. Understanding exercise physiology is a crucial component of the critical evaluation of exercise intolerance. Shortness of breath and exercise limitation is often treated with an improper focus, partly because the pathophysiology is not well understood in the frame of the diagnostic spectrum of each subspecialty. A vital field and research area have been cardiopulmonary exercise test in heart failure with preserved/reduced ejection fraction, evaluation of heart failure patients as candidates for LVAD-Implantation, as well as for LVAD-Explantation and ultimately for heart transplantation. All the CPET variables provide synergistic prognostic discrimination. However, Peak VO2 serves as the most critical parameter for risk stratification and prediction of survival rate.