Trade In Products Research Articles

The food security risks in the Yangtze River Delta of China associated with water scarcity, grain production, and grain trade

Grain production consumes a large amount of water and is affected by the degree of water scarcity and participation in the grain trade in various regions. The grain trade has changed the food security risks in regions where grain exports and imports. Therefore, it is crucial to consider regional water scarcity to understand food security risks from the grain trade network. Here, we construct a new framework for measuring regional food security risks associated with water scarcity, grain production, and grain trade based on a cross-city grain trade network combined with virtual water flows to evaluate the regional food security risks in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) of China in 2017. The results show that under the current domestic grain trade pattern in China, the YRD and its four provincial-level administrative regions are in a net grain import state. The grain trade within the YRD is concentrated in exports from the two major grain-producing areas of Anhui and Jiangsu to Zhejiang and Shanghai, especially from northern Jiangsu to southeastern Zhejiang. The net import results of virtual blue water in most cities indicate that the YRD has shifted its water resource pressure to other grain exporting regions in China, with Shanghai and Zhejiang being the greatest beneficiaries. Extreme risk only exists in Shanghai, and severe and moderate risks are concentrated in Jiangsu. The current grain trade has reduced the overall food security risk in the YRD by 1.3 % but increased the risks in Shanghai and Zhejiang by 2.1 % and 0.8 % respectively. This study highlights the potential risks that excessive production of food in water-scarce areas in the grain trade system may bring to a stable food supply, providing useful information for a comprehensive understanding of the food and water security situation and for future trade-offs.

Determination of Correlation and Path Coefficient for Seed Yield and it’s Contributing Characters in Soybean Germplasm

Background: Soybean is one of the world’s most important legumes contributing significantly as an oilseed in terms of total production and international trade. It is a multipurpose crop. Selection of genotypes with higher yield is always given priority by breeders for developing high yielding varieties. The present experimentation was conducted to know character association and path coefficient analysis among yield and its components for enhancing the usefulness of selection criterion to be followed during development of cultivars. Methods: The experimental material consisted of 32 soybean genotypes sown at Sipani Krishi Anusandhan Farm, Changli, Mandsaur Madhya Pradesh in Kharif season, 2022 in RBD with three replication. The character association and path coefficient was analysed between seed yield and nine yield attributing quantitative characters. Result: Grain yield per plot showed highly significant and positive correlation with number of primary branches per plant (0.501** and 0.444**), number of pods per plant (0.714** and 0.684**), number of pods per cluster (0.709** and 0.673**), number of nods per plant (0.746** and 0.687**) and plant height (0.253* and 0.214*) respectively at both the genotypic and phenotypic levels. Out of ten, five characters had positive direct effect on seed yield per plot. Highest positive direct effect on seed yield per plot was exhibited by number of pods /plant followed by number of nods /plant, number of primary branches per plant, number of pods /cluster, days to 50% pod initiation.

A molecular method to assess viability of Phytophthora in infected wood following heat treatment

International trade in wood products is an important component of the global economy. However, wood and wood products may have pests associated with them that could be introduced into importing countries, posing phytosanitary risks, and leading to the implementation of regulatory restrictions that affect wood trade. The application of heat to kill wood-associated pests has been a successful phytosanitary method to reduce their spread. To evaluate the efficacy of wood heat treatment to kill fungal and fungus-like pathogens, the method of choice has been to grow organisms in cultures for subsequent identification. However, some plant pathogens can be difficult or impossible to grow in axenic cultures and a molecular method can still be useful for assessing pathogen viability after heat-treatment. RNA is a single stranded molecule that is responsible for the transcription of genes. Since it becomes rapidly unstable after cell death, it provides a measure of viability. We therefore designed and tested RNA-based molecular diagnostic assays targeting essential genes and assessed their presence after heat treatment in wood colonized by four Phytophthora species of phytosanitary concern (P. xmultiformis, P. cinnamomi, P. lateralis and P. ramorum) through reverse transcription and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Our assays differentiate between genomic and mRNA as the TaqMan probes span exon-intron junctions. We validated these RT-qPCR assays to assess heat treatment efficacy of Phytophthora-inoculated wood. These assays can be very useful tools to assess effectiveness of current and emerging phytosanitary wood treatments.

‘Making text talk’: The minutes of the Central Bank of Brazil and the real economy

This paper investigates the relationship between the views expressed in the minutes of the meetings of the Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) and the real economy. It applies various linguistic machine learning algorithms to construct different measures of the uncertainty contained in the minutes of the COPOM. To achieve this, we first infer the content of the paragraphs of the minutes with Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Secondly, we build an uncertainty index for the minutes with Word Embedding and K-Means. Thirdly, we create two topic-uncertainty indices. The first topic-uncertainty index is constructed from paragraphs with a higher probability of topics related to general economic conditions. The second topic-uncertainty index is built from paragraphs with a higher probability of topics related to inflation and the monetary policy decision. Then, via a Structural VAR, we explore the lasting effects of these uncertainty indices on some Brazilian macroeconomic variables. Our results show that an unexpected increase in the minutes' uncertainty leads to a depreciation of the exchange rate and a decline in industrial production and retail trade. Moreover, we show that a positive shock to the general economic conditions topic-uncertainty index leads to higher inflation, whereas a positive shock to the inflation and monetary policy decision topic-uncertainty index leads to lower inflation.

Analyzing per capita food consumption patterns in net food-importing developing countries

Net food-importing developing countries, which account for 30% of countries globally, and roughly 20% of the global population, must seek to reduce their vulnerabilities in food production trade shocks. This study investigates per capita food consumption patterns in 60 net food-importing developing countries using ICP 2017 data for eight food categories. Employing the linear approximate, almost ideal demand system model, the research derives marginal shares, income and price elasticities of demand, shedding light on consumption behaviors and responsiveness to changes in income and prices. Results highlight that additional expenditure on per capita food consumption is primarily allocated to fruits, vegetables, meat, and bread and cereals, with considerable variations among countries. At the same time, minimal allocation is observed for sugar and honey, as well as fats and oils. Income elasticities indicate varying degrees of responsiveness across food categories. In contrast, own-price elasticities underscore significant sensitivity to price fluctuations, notably for beverages, milk, cheese, and eggs, meat, fats and oils, and fish and seafood. Moreover, cross-price elasticities suggest predominantly substitution relationships between pairs of food categories, on average. Additionally, a visually informative map displaying estimated marginal shares, income elasticities, and own-price elasticities for the eight food categories was created. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in understanding consumption dynamics and formulating effective strategies to address food security and welfare concerns in net food-importing developing countries.

Global value chain participation, trade cost and benefits of timber industry

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of global value chain participation (GVCP) on the gains from trade and trade costs of the timber industry and reveal the underlying influence mechanism. The GVCP Index, Novy (2011) method, and WWZ Value Added Decomposition method have been used to measure the degree of global value chain participation, trade costs, and gains from trade of the timber industry, respectively. The results show that the export gains from trade of the timber industry featured inter-annual sustainability. Further, GVCP, has an insignificant impact, suggesting that the industry’s degree of GVCP is limited. While the current trade cost and policy barriers to forest product trade harm it. And the cost of export trade has a strong lag effect on gains from trade. The increase of current trade costs reduces the short-term benefits; but in the long run, the trade costs and benefits show a synchronous growth trend. To maintain and enhance its competitiveness, therefore, the industry will have to change the GVCP degree and mode of the timber industry, reduce short-term trade costs, and improve the quality and legitimacy certification level of timber products.

The Prospects of AfCFTA in Promoting Industrialization and Economic Diversification in Africa

African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) functions as a boost for Africa's economic development by enhancing intra-African trade. This is because trade is an engine of growth and development. For the fact that most African nations that are located within the same region engage in similar and competitive production, the ensuing economic cooperation and trade exchanges not only have the promise of increasing trade but also stimulating other ancillary economic activities, creating new job opportunities, speeding up economic growth, promote the standard of living, and promote economic development. However, AfCFTA's record has not been very impressive. The main obstacles to intra- regional commerce among African countries include heavy reliance on trade in primary goods, high product and market concentration of exports, and inadequate regional manufacturing networks. This study therefore examines continental economic trends and Intra African Trade: Prospects for African Continental Free Trade Area. The study adopted qualitative methods of data collection and analysis and the comparative theory of integration. The study found that the low level of trade diversification implicated the capacity of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to achieve improved intra-regional trade performances in Africa. African countries maintain as much as 77% export specialization, with higher external/world trade at 84.6 percent of their total import and export trade. The study recommended that Governments should invest in infrastructure development, including building roads, railways, ports, and airports, as well as improving access to electricity and broadband. Governments should adopt modern trade facilitation measures such as electronic customs systems, single window platforms, and risk management techniques and should align their technical regulations and norms with global best practices and standards, as those created by appropriate international standard-setting organisations like the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO).

Evaluating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Sustainability of International Trade in Agricultural Products in the Context of Crisis Management: An Assessment of the Agricultural Product Exporting Sectors in Antalya, Türkiye

This study aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sustainability of international trade in agricultural products through semi-structured, in-depth interviews, focusing on businesses engaged in agricultural product exports in Antalya within the context of crisis management. While Türkiye ranks tenth in the world and first in Europe in terms of agricultural output, Antalya, one of Türkiye’s most economically significant cities, is among the top contributors to Türkiye’s economy in terms of foreign exchange earnings from agricultural product exports. According to the findings of the study, the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the importance placed on the sustainability of agricultural product export activities. Türkiye’s prioritization of agricultural production and export has allowed the agricultural sector to positively differentiate itself from other sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic, turning the crisis into an opportunity. On the other hand, disruptions in global supply chains and increases in logistics and transportation costs due to the pandemic have led to various challenges to the sustainability of sector activities. Moreover, the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as increases in global and national inflation rates and particularly rising fuel and product prices, have resulted in sustainability problems in the agricultural product export sector’s activities today. To ensure the sustainability of activities in the post-pandemic period, effective crisis management strategies and planning are needed. However, according to the study’s results, the issue of crisis management in the agricultural product export sector has not received sufficient attention. To raise awareness about crisis management and ensure productivity, competitive advantage, and sustainability, increasing government support, establishing sectoral cooperation for joint action, and fostering collaboration between the private sector, public sector, and universities could be beneficial.

Финансовый потенциал аграрного бизнеса Республики Беларусь в торговле с Российской Федерацией

The purpose of the article is to use the resulting approach to measure the financial potential of agricultural businesses in the Republic of Belarus. The study analyzed the share of food products in foreign trade, food products exports, the production capacity of food products industrial organizations, and the share of food products exports in the total volume of their production. The study defined that the production capacity of food industrial organizations in the regions bordering the Russian Federation (Vitebsk region, Mogilev region, Gomel region) for food products is not fully used. There is potential to increase food production and export it to the Russian Federation. The financial potential for increasing production and export of food products in the regions has been calculated with the resulting approach. The estimated financial potential for increasing meat exports by increasing the level of food production capacity is 218.92 million USD in the Vitebsk region, 312.52 USD million in the Gomel region, and 128.44 USD million in the Mogilev region. Active trade relations between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation laid the foundations for integration and development in the agricultural sector. The following suggestions for realization of financial potential in the regions are outlined and characterized: cooperation of agricultural business entities in the regions in various forms; regional diversification and integration of regional agricultural business entities; production cooperation of regions within the framework of foreign trade of agricultural products and food among EAEU member states and with third countries.

Optimizing Emergency Responses on Water Transport Accidents in Metropolitan Lagos

The study analyzed agricultural product trade data to ascertain the extent of involvement of ECOWAS in community trade between 2013 and 2017. The extent to which members fulfilled the regional trade co-operation policy objective of expanding the volume of intra-community trade is gauged by computed trade indices. Each index measures intra-community trade as a share of total trade, and takes values between 0 and 1. The value is 0, if trade is truly intra-community carried out by all or most members; and 1, if trade is inter-regional, most trade being carried out by few community members. Value of annual index were influenced by cases of none, under or over reporting by member nations. Analysis revealed that intra-community trade occurred more in animal than food products, while vegetable products accounted for less. It is recommended that ECOWAS member nations should seek and utilizing foreign direct investment in development of agricultural sector to improve value chain in addition to increasing and sustaining intra-community trade volume. Besides, reports of intra-community exports and imports of agricultural products should be accurate, and no member should import from other regions where sub-community members are suppliers. Keywords: Agricultural Product Sub-sections, ECOWAS, Intra-Community Trade, Extent. DOI : 10.7176/DCS/9-1-08

Externalities of Sanctions Impact on Russian Economy

The work reveals the economic motives for decision-making by the leading world powers and the features of the development of the Russian national economy in the context of measures taken by the Government of the country in the conditions of a changing geopolitical reality. The emphasis is made on the need to manage the risks of foreign economic activity after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by unfriendly countries with developed economies. The degree of dependence of the Russian Federation on high-tech goods, components, software and at the same time low diversification of production for the main export items has been revealed. Promising markets for export goods and potential importers as well as partner countries for the development of mutual trade in products and services have been identified. Acceptable solutions and current anti-crisis support measures from the state in the form of subsidizing lending rates, creating “new growth points” in the economy by allocating funds for import substitution programs, etc. are outlined. An assessment of the possible damage to several friendly countries from the attempt to economically isolate one of the world’s largest economies has been completed. The countries of Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America are considered the main regions for the future development of international cooperation. The BRICS bloc for Russia is becoming a key integration association in terms of transforming industrial, logistics and financial chains in the global economic space. As a result, constructive conclusions about the need to use diplomatic measures to maintain neutrality and create interstate agreements that contribute to a more intensive opening of the internal markets of friendly countries for the development of mutual trade in raw materials and high-tech goods are given.

FOREST MANAGEMENT IN PORTUGAL

Portugal and occupied by more than 1/3 of forests. Portuguese legislation on forests has progressively changed over time, with measures being created that take the Portuguese panorama and problems into account. Portuguese forests present several advantages at a humanitarian, economic and social level. Their contribution to the national economy forest production and foreign trade, forest energy, recreational and tourism. In the Portuguese context, fires are the biggest problem that Portugal faces today. Rays, Arsonists, Burning for cleaning, Smokers and Country fires are examples of the causes. There is a certain impact on time and space indirectly and directly. Fuel reduction in strategic locations and changes in behaviors by the population could be the solution for what we have been looking for.

A Study on the Effect of Imported Wheat Prices on Türkiye’s Pasta Exports: ARDL Approach

Türkiye has possessed significant agricultural opportunities throughout its history. Although the effective utilization of these opportunities is a subject of debate today, the country still plays a significant role in the global trade of some agricultural products. When discussions about Türkiye’s exports are examined, a common complaint is the external dependency of the export industry. However, there are also debates about the diminishing agricultural advantages that have been present since the past. When these discussions are brought together, the trade of certain processed agricultural products, whose raw materials are agricultural products, also becomes a noteworthy research topic due to a similar import dependency. In this study, an analysis was conducted using time series and the ARDL model to investigate whether there is a relationship between Türkiye’s pasta export quantity, as one of the leading pasta exporter’s globally, and the prices of wheat imports from Ukraine, Russia, and Bulgaria. Also robustness checks enhanced the analyzes by employing FMOLS and DOLS methods. The research findings indicate variations in the impact of wheat prices from country to country on the quantity of pasta exported by Türkiye. Recommendations regarding the importance of wheat production in Türkiye are also provided as a result of the research.

Analysis of Fish Consumption in the ECOWAS Region and Mauritania: Current Constraints and Future Challenges

The objective of this paper is to present the issues of fish consumption in the ECOWAS region and Mauritania in the context of overexploitation of fishery resources, significant population growth, and increasing food and nutritional insecurity. The method involved compiling data on production (fishing and aquaculture), foreign trade in fishery products, and population to define net supply and apparent consumption. Numerical assumptions were made to project consumption trends up to 2030. The assumptions were based on the identification of past and recent fish consumption trends, incorporating political, ecological, and economic events that could impact the standard of living of West African populations. The results indicate that the production of fishery and aquaculture products in the ECOWAS region and Mauritania increased from 2.1 million to 3.6 million between 2008 and 2022, driven by significant catches in Mauritania and the burgeoning aquaculture industries in Nigeria and Ghana. The reliance on imports to compensate for the production deficit has grown increasingly important. Imports now exceed exports by a factor of three, with an average of 1.9 million tonnes imported compared to 0.6 million exported between 2009 and 2022. Despite a notable increase in fishery product exports from Senegal and Mauritania, this rise has not been sufficient to offset the negative trade balance of the region, exacerbated by substantial growth in imports from Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria. Even with the significant imports, per capita consumption within ECOWAS and Mauritania has decreased from 14 kg to 11 kg between 2008 and 2022. This decline in consumption is projected to continue in the coming decade, dropping to less than 9 kg by 2030. The current state of overexploitation of fish stocks, ecosystem degradation, climate change, and significant population growth do not favor an improvement in fish consumption over the next decade. However, meeting the ever-increasing demand for fishery products in West Africa is possible if radical changes are implemented at the forefront of decision-making processes.

Innovative methodological approach integrating SEM-EDS and TXRF microanalysis for characterization in materials science: A perspective from cultural heritage studies

Material science is an interdisciplinary field that draws on elements of chemistry, physics, engineering and deals with designing, producing, and using a wide range of materials. The methodological approach of materials investigation is very significant in cultural heritage.The study of Cultural Heritage materials is useful for dating, unraveling production technologies, sources and trading, and their restoration and preservation.Archaeometry is the tool for material characterization, but it cannot always be applied in a non-destructive way: as a result, analytical techniques requiring minimum sampling are of great interest. For this, Total reflection X-ray fluorescence (TXRF) spectrometry is an effective technique, thanks to its microanalytical capabilities and the possibility of preserving the sample after its analysis, either for additional investigations or archiving purposes. It is very sensitive to period four transition elements but less effective with lighter ones. Thus, to gather the most comprehensive analysis of historic enamelled ceramics, Scanning Electron Microscopy-Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) and TXRF spectrometry were combined in a novel analytical approach.Soil standards and natural soil pigment samples were tested to validate the novel analytical approach. Na, Mg, Al, Si, K and Ca were determined with SEM-EDS analysis and used for TXRF quantification of heavier elements without adding any internal standard. The methodology to determine the total composition of artifacts, by integrating the concentrations of light elements in EDS with the data of the heavier elements obtained with TXRF, is here developed expressing elements as oxides recalculated to 100%. Recovery values for standards were found mostly within 20% of the certified values for MgO, Al2O3, SiO2, K2O, TiO2, Cr2O3, MnO, Fe2O3, NiO, CuO, PbO and SrO. The detection capabilities for major, minor and trace elements in soil pigments prove that this novel, practically non-destructive, analytical approach has a high potential for obtaining the elemental composition of Cultural Heritage materials with broad applications.

Estimation of the virtual water trade of agricultural products between Vietnam and China

Estimation of the virtual water trade of agricultural products between Vietnam and China

A Study of Factors Influencing China's Agricultural Exports to Japan

As a key focus of trade negotiations between China and Japan, trade in agricultural products has received special attention to the tariffs and preferential conditions involved. According to data provided by China Customs, China's agricultural exports to Japan fell after peaking in 2012 and fell further to 9.64 billion yuan in 2020. This paper selects the 2000-2021 china export agricultural products trade data from the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce to Analyze the trade status of Japan, and finds that the scale of trade shows an expanding trend, and there are fluctuations in some years. Establish a business gravity model, study the effectiveness and potential of developing China's agricultural export trade with Japan, and analyze various factors affecting the effectiveness of agricultural export trade, and the results show that there is room for progress in China's agricultural export trade with Japan, and the scale of trade can be further expanded. Finally, it proposes to further improve the export efficiency of agricultural products, stabilize the exchange rate, improve import and export policy control and further broaden the foreign trade market, optimize the trade structure and promote the quality of agricultural products.

Socio-Economic Development of Russia in 2023–2025: Growth Trend Continues

The article examines the results of the socio-economic development of Russia in 2023, analyzes trends and provides forecasts for the strategic development of the national economy as a whole and its leading industries for 2024–2025, using mathematical and statistical methods.Based on macroeconomic statistics, a comparative analysis of development trends in the Russian and world economies is carried out, primarily in terms of such key development indicators as gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, investment, inflation, and foreign trade. The authors identified bottlenecks and assessed the impact of new strategic initiatives on forecasts of socio-economic development in the period under review. The shortcomings of the current management system are analyzed, and measures aimed at overcoming the structural crisis are proposed. The need to improve state socio-economic policy is substantiated.It is noted that the Russian economy, despite the strengthening of sanctions by the collective West, has increased the sustainability of its development and the level of technological and scientific sovereignty. The article highlights shortcomings and a number of unresolved issues of import substitution and imperfect logistics of production and foreign economic relations, which create threats of decline of GDP and the level of technological sovereignty in the future.The paper substantiates the possibility of transforming all sectors and spheres of the national economy when implementing the plan presented in the Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly.

International trade in food and agro-based products in the time of COVID-19

The aim of the study is to examine the regional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its individual waves on foreign trade in food and agro-based products in the world’s largest trading countries. The study was based on the statistical database of the International Trade Centre (ITC). In addition to the basic analysis, use was made of the auto- correlation method to detect special relationships between foreign food trade of different countries. The results show that the pandemic has had the greatest impact on agricultural and food trade in the United States, but it has spilled over to other countries as well, especially its two major trading partners, the European Union and China. Food trade stagnated in the initial period of the pandemic, but later recovered relatively well. The six examined regions can be divided into three groups based on the typical features of their autocorrelation.

Estimating digital product trade through corporate revenue data

Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding of digital trade and its implications remains limited. Here, we introduce a method to estimate bilateral exports and imports for dozens of sectors starting from the corporate revenue data of large digital firms. This method allows us to provide estimates for digitally ordered and delivered trade involving digital goods (e.g. video games), productized services (e.g. digital advertising), and digital intermediation fees (e.g. hotel rental), which together we call digital products. We use these estimates to study five key aspects of digital trade. We find that, compared to trade in physical goods, digital product exports are more spatially concentrated, have been growing faster, and can offset trade balance estimates, like the United States trade deficit on physical goods. We also find that countries that have decoupled economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions tend to have larger digital exports and that digital exports contribute positively to the complexity of economies. This method, dataset, and findings provide a new lens to understand the impact of international trade in digital products.