Productivity-enhancing Technologies Research Articles

Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work

We summarize a framework for the study of the implications of automation and AI on the demand for labor, wages, and employment. Our task-based framework emphasizes the displacement effect that automation creates as machines and AI replace labor in tasks that it used to perform. This displacement effect tends to reduce the demand for labor and wages. But it is counteracted by a productivity effect, resulting from the cost savings generated by automation, which increase the demand for labor in non-automated tasks. The productivity effect is complemented by additional capital accumulation and the deepening of automation (improvements of existing machinery), both of which further increase the demand for labor. These countervailing effects are incomplete. Even when they are strong, automation in- creases output per worker more than wages and reduce the share of labor in national income. The more powerful countervailing force against automation is the creation of new labor-intensive tasks, which reinstates labor in new activities and tends to increase the labor share to counterbalance the impact of automation. Our framework also highlights the constraints and imperfections that slow down the adjustment of the economy and the labor market to automation and weaken the resulting productivity gains from this transformation: a mismatch between the skill requirements of new technologies, and the possibility that automation is being introduced at an excessive rate, possibly at the expense of other productivity-enhancing technologies.

Endogenous TFP, Business Cycle Persistence and the Productivity Slowdown

This paper analyses the procyclicality of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. Total factor productivity evolves endogenously as a consequence of costly investment in R&D and adoption of new technologies. We find that the endogeneity of TFP induces a high degree of persistence in the euro area business cycle via a feedback mechanism between overall economic conditions and investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. As to the sources of the euro area productivity slowdown, we conclude that a decrease in the efficiency of R&D investment is among the key factors generating the pre-crisis productivity slowdown, while starting from the Great Recession an increase in liquidity demand is identified as the most important driving force. The endogenous technology mechanism further exerts a dampening effect on the inflation response over the business cycle which helps rationalizing both the negligible fall in inflation during the Great Recession and the sluggish increase of inflation in the subsequent recovery.

Competition for land resources: driving forces and consequences in crop-livestock production systems of the Ethiopian highlands

IntroductionEthiopia has made efforts to tackle the challenges of low crop and livestock productivity and degradation of land resources through various rural development strategies. However, increasing demands for food, animal feed, fuel, and income-generating activities are putting pressure on the land. In this paper, we describe the production pressure and competition between crop and livestock production, quantify rates of land-use/cover (LULC) changes, and examine driving forces and consequences of land conversion.MethodsThe study was conducted in Gudo Beret watershed, North Shewa Zone of Amhara region, Ethiopia. It used a combination of methods including remote sensing, household interviews, field observations, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Supervised and unsupervised image classification methods were employed to map LULC classes for 31 years (1984–2016).ResultsThe results of satellite remote sensing revealed that 51% of the land in the study area was subject to accelerated land conversions. The household survey results indicated that feed resources and grain production pressures were 1.43 and 1.34 t ha−1 respectively. The observed annual changes in plantation and settlement areas were 2.6% and 2.9%. This was mainly at the expense of bushland and grazing land systems. Cropland increased (0.4% year−1) while grazing land reduced (3.5% year−1) under contrasting dynamics and competitive changes. An increase in human and livestock populations and farm expansion were major drivers of land conversion that adversely affected household livelihoods and the natural ecosystem. The consequences of these pressures resulted in a lack of animal feed, low crop-livestock productivity, and a reduction in natural vegetation coverage.ConclusionsWe suggest that sustainable land resource management, more integrated crop-livestock production, and the use of productivity-enhancing technologies could play a role in managing competition for land resources.

Economy-Wide Impacts of Technological Change in Food Staples in Ethiopia: A Macro-Micro Approach

This paper assesses the potential impacts from the introduction of high yielding and drought tolerant varieties of major food staples (wheat and maize) in Ethiopia. We develop a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model with a micro-simulation module to examine the growth, poverty and distributional impacts of agricultural innovations. The analysis shows that introduction of improved varieties of these food staples is likely to boost the cereal sector in the country. Other agricultural sub-sectors grow due to increased labour supply. Given that these staple cereals represent an important share of food consumption for Ethiopian households, the poverty impact of the interventions is positive. Although rural households benefit from higher gains in real consumption, poverty declines more in urban areas compared to the rural. This is mainly because the rural poor are generally far from the poverty line with a higher initial poverty gap compared to urban households and the urban poor benefit from price effects. As productivity-enhancing technologies are introduced, there is a need for policy interventions in rural areas targeting non-agricultural sectors to enhance growth linkages, increase employment and stimulate inclusive growth.

Diffusion of Ideas and Network Linkages

I study the diffusion of technology when the decision to search for productivity-enhancing technologies depends on the network of interactions between agents. Agents have the option to engage in costly learning from their first-degree connections. The more productive an agent's connections, the higher the gains from learning. Hence, the network affects the reservation productivity at which agents choose to learn and, therefore, affects aggregate productivity. I find that the denser the network, the higher total factor productivity and the lower inequality. However, there is no effect of the network on the share of agents that learn in equilibrium. Furthermore, I find that nodes that are central in terms of their closeness to other nodes tend to exert more learning effort and have a higher productivity.

Cropping systems diversification, improved seed, manure and inorganic fertilizer adoption by maize producers of eastern Ethiopia

The gap between demand for and supply of food in Ethiopia can be reduced by improving farm productivity through the introduction of productivity-enhancing technologies. Conversely, in Ethiopia, the adoption rates of agricultural technologies remain below the expected levels. Hence, by using multivariate probit model, this study identifies factors that motivate the adoption of a combination of inorganic fertilizer, improved seed, manure and cropping system diversification in eastern Ethiopia using multiple plot-level observations. The analysis shows that the probabilities of adoption of agricultural technologies are influenced by household, socioeconomic, institutional and plot-level characteristics. Alongside this, the paper also shows that there is a significant correlation between the selected technologies, suggesting that adoptions of technologies are interrelated. Specifically, the result indicates that there is complementarity between inorganic fertilizer and improved seed; and substitutability between inorganic fertilizer and manure. The result also indicates there is complementarity between adoption of improved seed and manure; and adoption of improved seed and crop diversification.

In the Weeds: Effects of Temperature on Agricultural Input Decisions in Moderate Climates

We present evidence that farmers adjust agricultural inputs in response to within-season temperature variation, undertaking defensive investments to reduce the adverse agroecological impacts of warmer temperatures. Using panel data from Kenyan maize growing households, we find that higher temperatures early in the growing season increase the use of pesticides, while reducing fertilizer use. Warmer temperatures throughout the season increase household weeding effort. These adjustments arise because greater heat increases the incidence of pests, crop diseases and weeds, compelling farmers to divert investment from productivity-enhancing technologies like fertilizer to adaptive, loss-reducing, defensive inputs like pesticides and weeding labor.

Social Capital and Agricultural Technology Adoption among Ethiopian Farmers

Despite the recent efforts to increase agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, food insecurity remains a major challenge in the country. Improving smallholders´ productivity requires the adoption of suitable agricultural technologies and practices. Previous researches highlighted the importance of socio-economic factors; but widely overlooked the role of social capital in technology adoption and its potential to create collective actions, reduce transaction costs, relax supply side constraints, and disseminate information. Using socio-economic data of 398 farming households, the study assessed social capital as a determinant for soil and water conservation practices (SWC) such as terraces, bunds and agro-forestry as well as adopting productivity enhancing technologies (PET) such as fertilizers and improved high yielding seed varieties applying a probit model. The result showed that members of Iddir (informal funeral group) were more likely to adopt SWC (18.2%). For the case of PET, Iddir members were 12.8% less likely to adopt. Being members of Jarsumma (informal conflict resolution) increased the likelihood of SWC and PET adoption by 12.87% and 17.8%, respectively. Therefore, technology transfer should consider different types of social capital as an alternative policy option to the prevailing top down approaches in order to improve smallholder livelihoods.

Simulated willingness of farmers to adopt fertilizer micro-dosing and rainwater harvesting technologies in semi-arid and sub-humid farming systems in Tanzania

Productivity of African agriculture falls below the global average due mainly to limited use of productivity-enhancing technologies. In Tanzania, smallholders farm without fertilizer on fragile soils in rain-fed areas. Inadequate soil nutrients, nutrient mining, and soil-moisture stress are the main factors limiting crop productivity. Fertilizer micro-dosing (MD) and rainwater harvesting (RWH) through tied ridges appear to be appropriate technologies to help replenish soil nutrients and improve soil moisture for increased crop production. It nonetheless remains unclear whether these technologies can be adopted by smallholder farmers in Tanzania. There have been limited efforts to predict adoption and diffusion of new technologies in Tanzanian agriculture. This paper assesses the willingness of farmers to adopt fertilizer MD with and without tied ridges. Data were obtained from a household baseline study, participatory ex-ante impact assessments, and simulation exercises. Our cross-section analysis used integrated ex-ante assessment tools to understand sustainability and to prioritize and sequence technology adoption and diffusion. Simulation predicted the ex-ante impact of selected technologies, the adoption rate peaks, the likelihood for reaching peaks, and the possible time required to reach peak adoption. Our findings suggest the best paths that technology users should take, while considering factors which affect adoption during research planning, implementation, and testing of the farm level technologies.

Doubling Farmers’ Income in India by 2022–23: Sources of Growth and Approaches

The target of doubling farmers’ income in a short period requires identification of sources of income growth and enabling conditions for harnessing their growth potential. Agriculture is the main source of farmers’ income in India, and in this paper, we examine the sources of agricultural growth, and suggest technological, institutional policy options for making agriculture a remunerative enterprise. Technology is identified as one the most important sources of growth, and there are sufficient evidences to show that investment in agricultural research yields good dividends. There exist huge gaps between realized and potential yields of most crops that can be bridged to a large extent by enhancing farmers’ access to key inputs, irrigation, markets, credit and extension services. Diversification of production portfolio towards high-value crops has considerable potential to accelerate growth in agriculture and farmers’ income. However, extreme volatility in prices acts as disincentive to adopt productivity-enhancing technologies and diversification. Post-harvest management and small-scale processing would help farmers capture benefits of value addition. Effective coordination between centre and states is important in mainstreaming and channelizing policies and investment to achieve the target of doubling farmers’ income.

Resource use efficiency among maize farmers in Ghana

Despite the enormous importance of maize in Ghana, maize farmers in the country continue to experience low yields, making Ghana self-insufficient in the production of the crop. For maize farmers to be helped to increase productivity, the focus should not only be on whether or not they have adopted productivity-enhancing technologies, but it is necessary to carefully examine whether they are even making maximum use of the technologies or inputs available to them. This study analysed resource use efficiency for Ghana’s maize farms. The data used were obtained through a cross-sectional survey of 576 maize farmers in the Northern Savannah, Transitional, Forest and Coastal Savannah zones of Ghana using structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, stochastic frontier analysis and the ratio of marginal value product to marginal factor cost were the methods of analysis employed. The results showed that generally, maize farmers in Ghana were inefficient in their use of resources available to them. Fertilizer, herbicide, pesticide, seed, manure and land were underutilized, while labour and capital were overutilized by the farmers. The results further showed that maize farmers in Ghana exhibit increasing returns to scale, indicating that the famers can increase their output by increasing the use of some of the key resources. Incentives and strategies aimed at encouraging farmers to optimize the use of fertilizer, herbicide, pesticide, seed, manure and land are recommended to ensure improved maize productivity in Ghana. Currently, incentives and strategies could take the form of better management by government of the current fertilizer subsidy programme and efficient input distribution through farmer-based organizations to ensure easy access by farmers.

The “Peter Pan Syndrome” in Emerging Markets: The Productivity-Transparency Trade-off in IT Adoption

Firms invest in technology to increase productivity. Yet in emerging markets, where a culture of informality is widespread, information technology (IT) investments leading to greater transparency can impose a cost through higher taxes and the need for regulatory compliance. The tendency of firms to avoid productivity-enhancing technologies and remain small to avoid transparency has been dubbed the “Peter Pan Syndrome.” We examine whether firms make the trade-off between productivity and transparency by examining IT adoption in the Indian retail sector. We find that computer technology adoption is lower when firms are motivated to avoid transparency. Specifically, technology adoption is lower when there is greater corruption, but higher when there is better enforcement and auditing. So, firms have a higher productivity gain threshold to adopt computers in corrupt business environments that suffer from patchy and variable enforcement of the tax laws. Not accounting for this motivation to hide from the formal sector underestimates productivity gains from computer adoption. Thus, in addition to their direct effects on the economy, enforcement, auditing, and corruption can have indirect effects through their negative impact on adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies that also increase operational transparency.

The 'Peter Pan Syndrome' in Emerging Markets: The Productivity-Transparency Tradeoff in IT Adoption

Firms make investments in technology to increase productivity. But in emerging markets, where a culture of informality is widespread, information technology (IT) investments leading to greater transparency can impose a cost through higher taxes and need for regulatory compliance. This tendency of firms to avoid productivity-enhancing technologies and remain small to avoid transparency has been dubbed the “Peter Pan Syndrome.” We examine whether firms make the tradeoff between productivity and transparency by examining IT adoption in the Indian retail sector. We find that computer technology adoption is lower when firms have motivations to avoid transparency. Specifically, technology adoption is lower when there is greater corruption, but higher when there is better enforcement and auditing. So firms have a higher productivity gain threshold to adopt computers in corrupt business environments with patchy and variable enforcement of the tax laws. Not accounting for this motivation to hide from the formal sector underestimates productivity gains from computer adoption. Thus in addition to their direct effects on the economy, enforcement, auditing and corruption can have indirect effects through their negative impact on adoption of productivity enhancing technologies that also increase operational transparency.

Improved Feed Technologies for Expanding the Productivity Frontiers in Asia: The Importance of System Perspectives for Transforming Waning Animal-agriculture

Agricultural productivity and economic growth have had an unprecedented rate of rural growth, improved livelihoods and increased prosperity in Asia. Feed resources, the primary determinant of productivity, are most important, but are constrained to drive the supply of animal proteins. Currently the scenario is challenged by at least four defining factors: (i) the need for more food and productivity growth, (ii) rampant poverty and malnutrition, (iii) inefficient use of natural resources, and (iv) the effects of climate change. A fifth critical factor is underutilisation of productivity-enhancing technologies, adoption, replication and intensification that link production with post-production in supply value and food chains. Serious doubts have been raised about the capacity and resource efficiency to expand food production. With ruminants, the doubts are reflected in low productivity and inadequate supplies of animal proteins, meat and milk to meet current and projected human demands. Ensuring efficient feed utilisation and production systems are thus central to innovative strategies and pathways are necessary to accelerate productivity and also cope with climate change.

The effectiveness of service delivery initiatives at improving patients' waiting times in clinical radiology departments: a systematic review.

We reviewed the literature for the impact of service delivery initiatives (SDIs) on patients' waiting times within radiology departments. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, INSPEC and The Cochrane Library for relevant articles published between 1995 and February, 2013. The Cochrane EPOC risk of bias tool was used to assess the risk of bias on studies that met specified design criteria. Fifty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria. The types of SDI implemented included extended scope practice (ESP, three studies), quality management (12 studies), productivity-enhancing technologies (PETs, 29 studies), multiple interventions (11 studies), outsourcing and pay-for-performance (one study each). The uncontrolled pre- and post-intervention and the post-intervention designs were used in 54 (95%) of the studies. The reporting quality was poor: many of the studies did not test and/or report the statistical significance of their results. The studies were highly heterogeneous, therefore meta-analysis was inappropriate. The following type of SDIs showed promising results: extended scope practice; quality management methodologies including Six Sigma, Lean methodology, and continuous quality improvement; productivity-enhancing technologies including speech recognition reporting, teleradiology and computerised physician order entry systems. We have suggested improved study design and the mapping of the definitions of patient waiting times in radiology to generic timelines as a starting point for moving towards a situation where it becomes less restrictive to compare and/or pool the results of future studies in a meta-analysis.

The seed and agricultural biotechnology industries in India: An analysis of industry structure, competition, and policy options

Since the late 1980s, technological advances and policy reforms have created new opportunities for private-sector investment in India’s seed and agricultural biotechnology industries. These changes have had a significant impact on cotton yields and output in India, but less so for rice and wheat—the country’s main cereal staples—for which yield growth rates are tending toward stagnation. This analysis examines the structures of these industries, their potential effects on competition and innovation, and the policies that may improve both industry performance and the delivery of new productivity-enhancing technologies to India’s cereal production systems. Our findings suggest that more substantive policy reforms are needed to encourage further innovation, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and encourage firm- and industry-level growth, while continued public spending on agricultural research is needed to support technological change.

Technical efficiency of Kenya’s smallholder food crop farmers: do environmental factors matter?

Smallholder agriculture dominates Kenya’s agricultural landscape, accounting for 75 % of total agricultural output and 70 % of the marketed agricultural produce. As a result, the Government of Kenya, with the support of development partners, has invested in production and dissemination of productivity-enhancing technologies such as high-yielding varieties and inorganic fertilizers targeting the smallholders. Adoption of these technologies has remarkably improved, especially in the maize sub-sector. However, productivity has been declining or, at best, stagnating. Productivity is attributable to not only technological improvements but also technical efficiency. Consequently, this study sought to determine the technical efficiency of the country’s smallholder food crop farmers and establish how it correlates with environmental factors. The study used a two-stage nonparametric approach on household panel data to estimate the efficiency levels of the smallholders and establish the sources of its variation across households. Controlling for endogeneity and incorporating geographic information system-derived measures of environmental factors in the analysis, the study finds that technical efficiency differentials are influenced by environmental factors, production risks and farmer characteristics. The policy implication is that the country has room to improve agricultural productivity by addressing environmental and farm-level constraints. Viable options include switching from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture, entrenching land tenure security, improving transport network among farm communities and setting up smallholder credit schemes.

Bioeconomic modeling of farm household decisions for ex-ante impact assessment of integrated watershed development programs in semi-arid India

The increasing population and urbanization have serious implications for sustainable development in less-favoured areas of developing countries. In an attempt to sustain the long-term productivity of natural resources and to meet the food and non-food demands of growing population in the semi-arid tropics, the Indian government invests and promotes integrated watershed development programs. A comprehensive tool to assess the impacts of watershed development programs on both social well-being and sustainability of natural resource is currently lacking. In this study, we develop a watershed level bioeconomic model to assess the ex-ante impacts of key technological and policy interventions on the socioeconomic well-being of rural households and the natural resource base. These interventions are simulated using data from a watershed community in the semi-arid tropics of India. The model captures the interaction between economic decisions and biophysical processes and using a constrained optimization of household decision model. The interventions assessed are productivity-enhancing technologies of dryland crops and increased in irrigable area through water conservation technologies. The results show that productivity-enhancing technologies of dryland crops increase household incomes and also provided incentives for conserving soil moisture and fertility. The increase in irrigable area enables cultivation of high-value crops which increase the household income but also lead to an increase in soil erosion and nutrient mining. The results clearly indicate the necessity for prioritizing and sequencing technologies based on potential effects and trade-offs on household income and conservation of natural resources.

The role of productivity in improving the environmental sustainability of ruminant production systems.

The global livestock industry is charged with providing sufficient animal source foods to supply the global population while improving the environmental sustainability of animal production. Improved productivity within dairy and beef systems has demonstrably reduced resource use and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food over the past century through the dilution of maintenance effect. Further environmental mitigation effects have been gained through the current use of technologies and practices that enhance milk yield or growth in ruminants; however, the social acceptability of continued intensification and use of productivity-enhancing technologies is subject to debate. As the environmental impact of food production continues to be a significant issue for all stakeholders within the field, further research is needed to ensure that comparisons among foods are made based on both environmental impact and nutritive value to truly assess the sustainability of ruminant products.

Feed Resources for Animals in Asia: Issues, Strategies for Use, Intensification and Integration for Increased Productivity

The availability and efficient use of the feed resources in Asia are the primary drivers of performance to maximise productivity from animals. Feed security is fundamental to the management, extent of use, conservation and intensification for productivity enhancement. The awesome reality is that current supplies of animal proteins are inadequate to meet human requirements in the face of rapidly depleting resources: arable land, water, fossil fuels, nitrogenous and other fertilisers, and decreased supplies of cereal grains. The contribution of the ruminant sector lags well behind that of non-ruminant pigs and poultry. It is compelling therefore to shift priority for the development of ruminants (buffaloes, cattle, goats and sheep) in key agro-ecological zones (AEZs), making intensive use of the available biomass from the forage resources, crop residues, agro-industrial by-products (AIBP) and other non-conventional feed resources (NCFR). Definitions are given of successful and failed projects on feed resource use. These were used to analyse 12 case studies, which indicated the value of strong participatory efforts with farmers, empowerment, and the benefits from animals of productivity-enhancing technologies and integrated natural resource management (NRM). However, wider replication and scaling up were inadequate in project formulation, including systems methodologies that promoted technology adoption. There was overwhelming emphasis on component technology applications that were duplicated across countries, often wasteful, the results and relevance of which were not clear. Technology delivery via the traditional model of research-extension linkage was also inadequate, and needs to be expanded to participatory research-extension-farmer linkages to accelerate diffusion of technologies, wider adoption and impacts. Other major limitations concerned with feed resource use are failure to view this issue from a farming systems perspective, strong disciplinary bias, and poor links to real farm situations. It is suggested that improved efficiency in feed resource use and increased productivity from animals in the future needs to be cognisant of nine strategies. These include priorities for feed resource use; promoting intensive use of crop residues; intensification of integrated ruminant-oil palm systems and use of oil palm by-products; priority for urgent, wider technology application, adoption and scaling up; rigorous application of systems methodologies; development of adaptation and mitigation options for the effects of climate change on feed resources; strengthening research-extension-farmer linkages; development of year round feeding systems; and striving for sustainability of integrated farming systems. These strategies together form the challenges for the future.