Maize Production Research Articles

Distribution, morphological and molecular characterization of root-lesion nematodes (Pratylenchus spp.) (Tylenchida: Pratylenchidae) in maize (Zea mays L.) (Poales: Poaceae) in Türkiye.

Root-lesion nematodes (RLN) are the most economically important pathogenic nematodes attacking maize. Significant economic losses due to lesion nematodes have been reported in maize producing countries in the world. This study was conducted to determine the distribution and identity of root-lesion nematodes (Pratylenchus spp.) (Tylenchida: Hoplolaimidae) in maize (Zea mays L.) (Poales: Poaceae) fields of the Black Sea region of Türkiye. For this purpose, 39 locations were surveyed and soil samples were taken from 17 regional provinces. Nematodes were extracted using the modified Baerman funnel technique. The species were identified based on sequences of the Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region of ribosomal DNA, as well as morphological characters and morphometrics. In addition, species identifications were confirmed using species-specific primers in the D3 expansion region of 26S rDNA. At the end of the study, 51.3% of the maize production areas sampled in the region were infected with root-lesion nematode species. Pratylenchus agilis, P. mediterraneus, P. neglectus, P. penetrans, P. thornei, and P. vulnus were identified, and were present in 25%, 5%, 25%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of samples, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first report of P. agilis in Türkiye. The present study concluded that the molecular analysis of Pratylenchus sequences based on the ITS and D3 region of ribosomal RNA genes allowed the identification of six root lesion nematode species. This study is of great importance in terms of adding additional species to the root-lesion nematode fauna in Turkey and will provide data for future research on the management of these nematodes.

Technical efficiency of maize production and their determinants among smallholder farmers in Ethiopia: a case study in Sidama Region

Technical efficiency of maize production and their determinants among smallholder farmers in Ethiopia: a case study in Sidama Region

Factors influencing fumonisin B1 contamination in maize: insights from two production regions in Costa Rica.

Maize (Zea mays L.) is an important cereal crop worldwide. Contaminated maize kernels pose a significant mycotoxin exposure risk for humans in Latin America. Fumonisins, the most prevalent mycotoxin in maize, typically occur during pre-harvest conditions leading to significant economic losses. Various factors, including weather conditions, may influence this contamination. This study aimed to determine the association between fumonisin B1 (FB1) contamination, prevalence of Fusarium verticillioides, weather conditions and kernel quality in the two primary maize production areas in Costa Rica (Brunca and Chorotega). All maize samples (100%) showed FB1 contamination, with higher concentrations in samples from Brunca region, consistent with the presence of F. verticilliodes. Weather conditions appeared to play an important role in this contamination, since Brunca region had the highest mean temperature and relative humidity after maize silking (R1) and the total monthly rainfall in this region was significantly higher during the last two months of maize cultivation (grain-filling and physiological maturity stages R3 to R6). Interestingly, this study found a negative correlation between grain damage and kernel contamination with FB1 and F. verticillioides. The concentration of mineral nutrients in kernels from both regions was largely similar. Most nutrients in kernels exhibited a negative correlation with FB1, particularly nitrogen. Zinc and phosphorus were the only nutrients in kernels showing a positive correlation with FB1 in samples from the Brunca region. The results highlight elevated levels of FB1 contamination in maize and contribute to a better understanding of pre-harvest factors influencing FB1 contamination in tropical conditions.

Combining Farmyard Manure with Mineral Nitrogen Fertilizer Boosts Maize Yields and Maintains Soil Health: Insights from Four Long-Term Experiments

Maize productivity in sub-Saharan Africa often falls below its potential due to soil fertility challenges. Researchers assessed the potential to counteract soil organic carbon (SOC) losses and yield declines using different organic resource treatments, with and without mineral nitrogen (N) fertilizer. While all treatments that received mineral N had similar yields in the first year, the application of farmyard manure (FYM) combined with mineral N was the only treatment that did not lose yields over the two decades, eventually outperforming all others. The results suggest that combining FYM with mineral N is the most effective of all tested strategies for simultaneously sustaining maize yields and SOC levels in similar tropical soils.

Leptodelphax maculigera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) Harbors the Corn Stunt Complex Pathogens.

The African planthopper Leptodelphax maculigera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) has been recently reported in many places in Brazil in association with maize. Its occurrence in maize production fields in Brazil has brought concerns to the corn production chain regarding the possibility of this planthopper to be a vector for maize bushy stunt phytoplasma (MBSP), corn stunt spiroplasma (Spiroplasma kunkelii), maize rayado fino virus (MRFV), and maize striate mosaic virus (MSMV). The phytoplasma and spiroplasma, which are bacteria belonging to the class Mollicutes, and the two viruses are associated with the corn stunt disease complex. Given the presence of the African planthopper species and the corn stunt complex in Brazil, we further investigated the abundance of this planthopper species in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, and whether the planthopper can carry the four pathogens. We inspected 12 maize production fields in different municipalities in the state for 20 weeks, using two yellow sticky traps for each maize field. The sticky traps were replaced weekly. A total of 130 specimens of L. maculigera were captured, with a great discrepancy in quantity among locations and weeks. We detected the mollicute MBSP and the viruses MRFV and MSMV in L. maculigera, whereas S. kunkelii was absent in the assessed African planthopper samples. The molecular detection of the phytoplasma and the viruses in field-collected African planthoppers is strong evidence that this insect species has the ability to acquire those pathogens through feeding from the phloem of diseased maize plants. Nonetheless, transmission capacity needs to be experimentally proven to assert L. maculigera as a vector for the corn-stunting pathogens.

ICPNet: Advanced Maize Leaf Disease Detection with Multidimensional Attention and Coordinate Depthwise Convolution.

Maize is an important crop, and the detection of maize diseases is critical for ensuring food security and improving agricultural production efficiency. To address the challenges of difficult feature extraction due to the high similarity among maize leaf disease species, the blurring of image edge features, and the susceptibility of maize leaf images to noise during acquisition and transmission, we propose a maize disease detection method based on ICPNet (Integrated multidimensional attention coordinate depthwise convolution PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization)-Integrated lion optimisation algorithm network). Firstly, we introduce a novel attention mechanism called Integrated Multidimensional Attention (IMA), which enhances the stability and responsiveness of the model in detecting small speckled disease features by combining cross-attention and spatial channel reconstruction methods. Secondly, we propose Coordinate Depthwise Convolution (CDC) to enhance the accuracy of feature maps through multi-scale convolutional processing, allowing for better differentiation of the fuzzy edges of maize leaf disease regions. To further optimize model performance, we introduce the PSO-Integrated Lion Optimisation Algorithm (PLOA), which leverages the exploratory stochasticity and annealing mechanism of the particle swarm algorithm to enhance the model's ability to handle mutation points while maintaining training stability and robustness. The experimental results demonstrate that ICPNet achieved an average accuracy of 88.4% and a precision of 87.3% on the self-constructed dataset. This method effectively extracts the tiny and fuzzy edge features of maize leaf diseases, providing a valuable reference for disease control in large-scale maize production.

Response of Maize (<i>Zea may</i> <I>L.</I>) Cultivars to Urea Time Application on Phenology, Growth and Grain Yield at Bako, East Wollaga, Ethiopia

The results of this research provide a basis for additional exploration and advancement, which will culminate in suggestions for the timing of split urea treatment and cultivars for sustainable maize production within the study region. During the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons, a field experiment was conducted at the Bako Agricultural Research Center to determine the response of hybrid maize cultivars to urea split application on phenology, growth, and grain production. In the experiment, six levels of urea split application were applied to two types of corn. T1 = 1/2 dose of urea at planting + 1/2 dose of urea at Knee height; T2 = 1/2 dose of urea at planting + 1/2 dose of urea at tasseling; T3 = 1/ 3 dose of urea at planting + 1/3 dose of urea at knee height + 1/3 dose of urea at tasseling; T4 = 2/3 dose of urea at knee height + 1/3 dose of urea at tasseling; T5 = 1/2 dose of urea at knee height + 1/2 dose of urea at tasseling; and T6 = 1/4 dose of urea at planting + 1/2 dose of urea at knee height + 1/4 dose of urea at tasseling. The experiment's randomized complete block design made use of three replications. The primary effects of the urea split time of application were found to have a substantial impact on plant height, 90% physiological maturity, grain production, total leaf area per plant, and leave area index. Three urea split applications 1/4 dosage at planting, 1/2 dose at knee height, and 1/4 dose at tasseling provided the maximum net benefit of EB 246,536.7 ha-1 and the best marginal rate return of 2822.26% for maize output. In conclusion, urea split application 1/4 doses at planting stage 1/2 dose at knee-height and 1/4 dose at tasseling stage is the best time of application in good rainy seasons and hence recommended for the end users. However, in the case of erratic and heavy rainy seasons, application at three times should be used to get maximum profit and acceptable MRR.

The effects of multiple agricultural advisory service providers on farmers’ productivity in Tanzania

ABSTRACT Despite existence of multiple agricultural advisory service providers, there is limited evidence on their contribution to farmers’ productivity. This study applied the multinomial endogenous switching regression model to analyze incremental effects of multiple advisory service providers on the partial and total factor productivities of 665 farmers in Tanzania. The study contributes to the literature by using number of service providers rather than binary or frequency measures of extension access. Results showed that farmers working with two service providers had higher improvement in the productivity of maize as well as all crops grown than those using one, three or four service providers. We recommend targeting of agricultural advisory services to meet specific needs of different crops grown by farmers in various localities, enhanced coordination and monitoring of service providers to enhance the relevance, quality and timeliness of the services provided by different actors so as to improve farm productivity levels.

Maize production scales and the impact of commercialization in the futures market on net operating income in Brazil

Maize is the second most cultivated grain in Brazil, and the crucial step for maize growers is when they have to define the right strategy to sell their maize. The challenge is finding a selling scenario that optimizes profits and reduces risks, when maize growers need to use the barter option, selling maize in exchange for agricultural inputs. Is have to find an appropriate balance between the quantities allocated to the barter, direct sales or future markets alternatives. The objective of this paper was to analyze the scale of maize production and calculate net operating revenue as a result of percentage variations in maize futures trading. Using data from maize growers in the State of São Paulo and estimates of their farms’ size, different scales and percentages of maize production sold in the futures market were used to establish the consequences on net revenues obtained from these marketing alternatives. The growth in net revenue is noticeable in all scenarios, however in those cases in which most of the production was negotiated in future markets presented an increased net operating revenue, while scenarios characterized by increased allocation of production in exchange for agricultural inputs showed a decreased net operating revenue. The growth of net revenue in all scenarios suggests that good negotiation strategies for maize sales not only prevent farmers from market fluctuations but also increase the maize grower's operating revenue.

Evaluating maize (Zea mays L.) management practices implementing sensitivity analysis of vegetation indices

Conservation agriculture and sustainable agronomic principles include several management practices such as cover cropping, no-till, and alternative fertilization rates. Each of these practices can result in changes among agricultural productivity, sustainability for future farming, and protections for the environment. These management practices are important concepts that can be applied in the production of maize (Zea mays L., corn). The aim of this three-year study (2018–2020) was to compare maize health across two fields located in Riesel, TX under varying management approaches and precipitation conditions. The first field utilized ‘business as usual’ operations characterized by the implementation of tillage, fertilization at a maximum rate (10.06 Mg/ha), and no cover crops. The second field utilized ‘aspirational’ cultivation techniques categorized by no tillage, cover crops, and an alternative method for rate of fertilization. Each field was subject to satellite-based remote sensing methods incorporating Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Normalized Difference Red Edge (NDRE). Indices were subject to sensitivity analyses to determine the most sensitive index for maize under various managements and precipitation conditions. The most sensitive index (EVI) served as a proxy for time series analysis for maize health under the varying managements and rainfall conditions. The results suggest improvements to maize health are experienced over time when aspirational managements are employed, even though business as usual management resulted in higher yields. However, studies with greater duration could point to these perceived benefits over a long-term implementation. Nevertheless, productivity comparisons considering amount of input (i.e. fertilizer) suggests an increase in efficiency each year for the aspirational management. These findings suggest factors such as improved soil health from implementation of no-till and cover crops contribute to field health, efficiencies, and resiliency across varying precipitation conditions.

Genome edited zm-D8 reduced stature maize hybrids have improved climate resilience and competitive yields

As the frequency of intensive storm events increases in the U.S. Corn Belt, reduced stature maize hybrids could provide a new approach to improved climate resilience in maize production. We designed gene-edited D8 (dwarf8, zm-D8) maize germplasm with reduced stature to evaluate morphometric traits and grain yield. Four elite edited zm-D8 maize hybrids and their isogenic standard height hybrid comparators were evaluated over a total of 17 field locations in 2021 and 2022. Across three plant densities (80 K, 100 K and 120 K plants ha−1), plant height of the edited zm-D8 reduced stature hybrids was reduced 34 % and ear height was decreased 32 %. In each of the three plant densities, grain yield of the edited zm-D8 reduced stature hybrids was comparable to the isogenic standard height hybrids. Also, edited zm-D8 hybrids had significantly less lodging than the standard hybrids. In a separate study, DP202216 (ZmGos2:zmm28) a transgenic event with increased and extended expression of the zmm28 transcription factor, was crossed with reduced stature edited zm-D8 hybrids. Combining edited zm-D8 with event DP202216 significantly increased hybrid yields over those of edited zm-D8 hybrids under high density (120 K plants ha−1). These results support a maize production system where edited zm-D8 reduced stature hybrids, alone or in combination with DP202216, provide improved climate resilience with grain yields competitive to standard height hybrids.

Impact of Crop Residue, Nutrients, and Soil Moisture on Methane Emissions from Soil under Long-Term Conservation Tillage

Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production systems are a major area of concern in mitigating climate change. Therefore, a study was conducted to investigate the effects of crop residue, nutrient management, and soil moisture on methane (CH4) emissions from maize, rice, soybean, and wheat production systems. In this study, incubation experiments were conducted with four residue types (maize, rice, soybean, wheat), seven nutrient management treatments {N0P0K0 (no nutrients), N0PK, N100PK, N150PK, N100PK + manure@ 5 Mg ha−1, N100PK + biochar@ 5 Mg ha−1, N150PK+ biochar@ 5 Mg ha−1}, and two soil moisture levels (80% FC, and 60% FC). The results of this study indicated that interactive effects of residue type, nutrient management, and soil moisture significantly affected methane (CH4) fluxes. After 87 days of incubation, the treatment receiving rice residue with N100PK at 60% FC had the highest cumulative CH4 mitigation of −19.4 µg C kg−1 soil, and the highest emission of CH4 was observed in wheat residue application with N0PK at 80% FC (+12.93 µg C kg−1 soil). Nutrient management had mixed effects on CH4 emissions across residue and soil moisture levels in the following order: N150PK > N0PK > N150PK + biochar > N0P0K0 > N100PK + manure > N100PK + biochar > N100PK. Decreasing soil moisture from 80% FC to 60% FC reduced methane emissions across all residue types and nutrient treatments. Wheat and maize residues exhibited the highest carbon mineralization rates, followed by rice and soybean residues. Nutrient inputs generally decreased residue carbon mineralization. The regression analysis indicated that soil moisture and residue C mineralization were the two dominant predictor variables that estimated 31% of soil methane fluxes in Vertisols. The results of this study show the complexity of methane dynamics and emphasize the importance of integrated crop, nutrient, and soil moisture (irrigation) management strategies that need to be developed to minimize methane emissions from agricultural production systems to mitigate climate change.

Climate Change Causes Food Insecurity for Developing Countries

At the moment, climate change is one of the most urgent issue worldwide. This is due to long-term climate trends and changes in social lifestyle. Another reason is the greenhouse gases produced by excessive fuel use. The intensity of weather, the decline in human health, and the devastation of natural ecosystems are all contributing factors. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests controlling the avaeage temperate rise at 1.5 degrees Celsius to reduce global warming's intensity. The three major green house gasses responsible for global warming are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emitted from burning fossil fuels. Climate change is affecting the entire world, but poor and developing countries are suffering the most. The effects of climate change are all-encompassing. It affects agriculture, human health and crop productivity. A decrease have been observed in maize and wheat production in worst cases of climate change. This deficiency can lead to a food crisis. Poor and developing countries do not have the necessary resources to cope with the situation. They can't mould themselves quickly enough. Due to the lack of resources, they cannot discover new seeds to increase food production and are unable to improve their irrigation system. Climate change and rising temperatures contribute to the rapid growth of harmful bacteria and pathogens. These microbes have become a source of food contamination. Changes in rainfall patterns is also an important issue that affects the agricultural sector and the quality of irrigation water used. The risk of water pollution also increases. The gases produced from food waste, like greenhouse gases, are also harmful. Food waste in neighbourhoods releases methane gas, harming the environment. Commodity shortage and rising prices are major problems for people in poor and developing countries. The best strategy to deal with all these problems is to find new methods for agriculture that cope with climate change. To solve all these problems, government and international organizations should come forward and work together to help poor nations.

Assessment of the Traditional Processing Methods in the Reduction of Aflatoxin Levels in Maize and Maize Products in Kenya

Aflatoxins are fungal secondary toxic metabolites produced predominantly by certain strains of the Aspergillus molds. The objective of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of Kenyan traditional processing methods in reduction of aflatoxin in maize. The traditional methods used included; alkaline cooking using Magadi soda and maize cob ash, decortication by pounding wet maize with mortar and pestle, dehulling in mechanical mill and exposure to solar radiation. Standardization of alkali cooking was done before actual treatment of the contaminated samples. Naturally contaminated samples of maize were sampled and used in the experiment. Aflatoxin analysis before and after each of the treatments was done using ELISA method and total aflatoxins expressed in parts per billion (ppb) (dry weight basis). The results were subjected to statistical analysis at 5% significance levels (p≤0.05). The reduction of aflatoxin was found to be highest when maize was boiled in maize cob ash solution which resulted in loss of aflatoxin from 83.1±0.3 ppb to 7.0±3.9 ppb. Dry decortication reduced aflatoxin from 51.3±15.3 to 9.6±0.8 ppb, boiling in Magadi soda led to a drop from 59.5±3.818 ppb to 13.4±0.424 ppb, solar irradiation caused a drop from 60.8±1.8 ppb to 13.7±0.1 ppb and pounding in Magadi soda resulted in least loss of aflatoxin from 81.5±0.3 to 72.7±0.2ppb. Aflatoxin loss in all the treatments was significant except for dry decortication. Only dry decortication and boiling in maize cob ash solution brought down the aflatoxin levels to below the maximum allowable limit as set by the Kenya Bureau of Standards (10ppb)

Genomic prediction of the performance of tropical doubled haploid maize lines under artificial Striga hermonthica (Del.) Benth. infestation.

Striga hermonthica (Del.) Benth., a parasitic weed, causes substantial yield losses in maize production in sub-Saharan Africa. Breeding for Striga resistance in maize is constrained by limited genetic diversity for Striga resistance within the elite germplasm and phenotyping capacity under artificial Striga infestation. Genomics-enabled approaches have the potential to accelerate identification of Striga resistant lines for hybrid development. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of genomic selection for traits associated with Striga resistance and grain yield (GY) and to predict genetic values of tested and untested doubled haploid maize lines. We genotyped 606 doubled haploid lines with 8,439 rAmpSeq markers. A training set of 116 doubled haploid lines crossed to 2 testers was phenotyped under artificial Striga infestation at 3 locations in Kenya. Heritability for Striga resistance parameters ranged from 0.38-0.65 while that for GY was 0.54. The prediction accuracies for Striga resistance-associated traits across locations, as determined by cross-validation (CV) were 0.24-0.53 for CV0 and from 0.20 to 0.37 for CV2. For GY, the prediction accuracies were 0.59 and 0.56 for CV0 and CV2, respectively. The results revealed 300 doubled haploid lines with desirable genomic estimated breeding values for reduced number of emerged Striga plants (STR) at 8, 10, and 12 weeks after planting. The genomic estimated breeding values of doubled haploid lines for Striga resistance-associated traits in the training and testing sets were similar in magnitude. These results highlight the potential application of genomic selection in breeding for Striga resistance in maize. The integration of genomic-assisted strategies and doubled haploid technology for line development coupled with forward breeding for major adaptive traits will enhance genetic gains in breeding for Striga resistance in maize.

Advancing sustainable agriculture: the role of integrated soil-crop management in maize production

ObjectiveThis study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Integrated Soil-Crop System Management (ISSM) and provide technical support for sustainable high yield and efficiency in regional agriculture.MethodsThe study compared the effects of no fertilization (Control), conventional farmer practices (FP), high-yield management (HY), and ISSM on maize yield and plant nutrient uptake. Measurements included grain yield, plant biomass, plant nutrient absorption, and soil nutrient content across different management strategies.ResultsOver the 12-year experimental period, a significant decline in grain yield was observed under the Control treatment, with a slight decrease in the FP treatment. In contrast, consistent yield increases were noted for the HY and ISSM treatments. The ISSM approach significantly enhanced the average yield and plant uptake of P and K by 26%, 24%, and 32%, respectively, approaching 98%, 91%, and 85% of the levels achieved in the HY treatment. Furthermore, the average use efficiency of P and K fertilizers in the ISSM treatment exceeded those in the FP treatment by 18.7% and 1.2%, respectively, and those in the HY treatment by 17.4% and 24.8%, respectively. The adoption of ISSM led to a significant increase in total and available P and K content within the 0–20 cm and 20–40 cm soil layers and enhanced the available P and K content across all aggregate size fractions within the 0–20 cm soil layer.ConclusionISSM is capable of achieving long-term high and stable yields for spring maize, enhancing the uptake and utilization of P and K in plants, and bolstering the soil’s capacity to supply these nutrients, thereby fostering the sustainable development of the entire soil-crop system.

Performance of tropical and subtropical maize inbred lines under well-watered and drought-stressed environments

Drought is a major constraint for maize production in sub-Saharan Africa. Developing high-yielding drought-tolerant maize germplasm will safeguard maize yields in the ever-increasing fluctuating rainfall conditions. This study aimed to identify high-yielding inbred lines with stable performance for utilization in hybrid production. One hundred eighty-two (182) maize inbred lines were evaluated under well-watered and drought-stressed conditions at Ukulinga, Makhathini, and Cedara research stations in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The experiments were carried out in a 13 × 14 alpha lattice design with two replications. The inbred lines exhibited significant differences (p ≤ 0.001) for grain yield and yield-related traits under well-watered and drought-stressed environments. The GGE biplot identified three mega-environments, clearly separating drought-stressed from well-watered environments. Inbred lines TZISTR1190, TZISTR1231, TZISTR1261 and CML540 were superior under well-watered conditions, while TZISTR1164 and CML390 performed well under drought condition. TZISTR1190 displayed both high average yield and stability across environments. Inbred lines combining stable high yielding performance in optimum and stress conditions such as TZISTR1190 and TZISTR1231, can be incorporated into local maize breeding pipelines to develop stable high yielding resilient hybrids.

Assessing homogeneous and heterogeneous economic impacts of fall armyworm management practices on farm performance in Ghana

One of the emerging challenges impinging on sustainable food production in sub-Saharan Africa is the invasion of the fall armyworm (FAW) pest. Data collected from farm households in different agro-ecological zones in Ghana and a Multivalued Treatment Effect (MVTE) model were used to argue that FAW management practices are key to stemming the debilitating effects of FAW infestations on farm performance. Previous studies have analysed homogeneous treatment effects to explain FAW management practices. The present study employs heterogeneous treatment effects to account for the differential effects of FAW management practices such as early planting, application of prescribed pesticides, and a combination of both practices while accounting for socioeconomic characteristics. Findings from the study reveal that distance to extension services exerts negative effects on adoption of early planting only, and adoption of both FAW management practices. Moreover, past FAW infestations tend to exert a positive effect on adoption of pesticide application only and adoption of a combination of the FAW management practices. Adopting the FAW management practices examined in this study assisted the maize producers in raising their farm performance. Socioeconomic characteristics also tend to influence the homogeneous treatment effects of adoption of the FAW management practices on farm performance. This finding indicates that heterogeneity within farm households is crucial for policy regarding adoption of FAW management practices.

Factors Determining the Level of Maize Production among Small Scale Farmers in Chisamba District, Zambia

Factors Determining the Level of Maize Production among Small Scale Farmers in Chisamba District, Zambia

Evaluation of Climate Suitability for Maize Production in Poland under Climate Change

Climatic conditions are the main factor influencing the suitability of agricultural land for crop production. Therefore, the evaluation of climate change impact on crop suitability using the best possible methods and data is needed for successful agricultural climate change adaptation. This study presents the application of a multi-criteria evaluation approach to assess climate suitability for maize production in Poland, for a baseline period (BL, 1981–2010) and two future periods 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) under two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analyses incorporated expert knowledge using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) into the evaluation of criteria weights. The results showed that maturity and frost stress were the most limiting factors in assessing the climatic suitability of maize cultivation in Poland, with 30% and 11% of Poland classified as marginally suitable or not suitable for maize cultivation, respectively. In the future climate, the area limited by maturity and frost stress factors is projected to decrease, while the area of water stress and heat stress is projected to increase. For 2050 climate projections, water stress limitation areas occupy 7% and 8% of Poland for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while for 2080 projections, the same areas occupy 12% and 32% of the country, respectively. By 2080, heat stress will become a limiting factor for maize cultivation; according to our analysis, 3% of the Polish area under RCP8.5 will be marginally suitable for maize cultivation because of heat stress. The overall analyses showed that most of Poland in the BL climate is in the high suitability class (62%) and 38% is moderately suitable for maize cultivation. This situation will improves until 2050, but will worsen in the 2080s under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, by the end of the century (2080s), the highly suitable area will decrease to 47% and the moderately suitable area will increase to 53%.