Processes In post-Soviet Space Research Articles

Post-Soviet Destabilization as a Struggle between Autocratic and Democratic Trends

The research paper explores the struggle between democratic and autocratic diffusions in post-Soviet space, reveals their peculiarities and emphasizes the upcoming trends, especially by taking into consideration the situations emerged after successful democratic improvements and progress in some former soviet republics. The comparative analysis of social and political processes in post-Soviet space showcases that some authoritarian states such as Russia and Azerbaijan, consistently play a destabilizing role and engender new challenges not only for democratization but also for stability and peace-building in conflicting zones. The research is focused on the study of Ukrainian, Georgian, and Armenian post-Soviet experiences as states with democratic vision challenged by their autocratic neighbors that persistently threaten democratic ones by violating their territorial integrity and sovereignty. To overcome these challenges, post-Soviet democratization needs to be protected from both inside and outside. Only in this case the foreign policies’ diversification in post-Soviet democratic states will succeed and the dependence of democratic rulers on autocratic ones will considerably decrease. In this regard, mainly Russia is very sensitive to this circumstance because such developments will lead to the fall of its geopolitical hegemony in post-Soviet space. If Russia succeeds in destroying democratic trends in post-Soviet space, it will not only keep its influence over other countries but also push them back to the authoritarian rule.

Unrecognized States of the Post-Soviet Space: Problems and Prospects

The world order of the 21st century is characterized by transformational processes changing the spatial-temporal coordinates of international life. The features of the present stage are ambivalent processes (integration and disintegration; globalization and deglobalization).The article analyzes the transformation processes in post-Soviet space. The relevance of the study is caused by the presence of several frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space that have changed the configuration of the region and have been enhancing its conflict potential since they are far from settling and constructive resolution. The conflict potential of the post-Soviet space is increased because of the presence of new state formations: the unrecognized de facto states thePridnestrovianMoldavianRepublicand theNagorno-KarabakhRepublic, and partially recognized Abkhazia andSouth Ossetia.The article also deals with the statehood acquisition and the formation of a new status of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, theNagorno-KarabakhRepublicand Transnistria. It emphasizes the necessity to solve the problem of obtaining external legitimization of the sovereignty of these political-territorial entities not only within the legal framework, but also within the political and social sphere.The actualization of frozen conflicts is only a matter of time, and in the context of the deterioration of relations between global players pursuing their own interests in the region, it can be used as an argument for aggravating the international situation.The principal approach to the study of this problem is the combination of comparative historical, institutional and situational methods that allow us to comprehensively consider the forms of international legitimization of small states in contemporary international relations and analyze conflict situations.The article presents various theoretical concepts on the problem of unrecognized states; the possibilities of further development of these partially recognized states are discussed. The difficulties of political integration and the difficulties of resolving frozen conflicts, in particular, due to the lack of a full-fledged dialogue between all parties to the conflict, are highlighted.The article is valuable as an analytical material for practical use by agencies and organizations involved in the development of political content in theSouth Caucasusregion.The authors conclude that in the issue of the existence of unrecognized States of the post-Soviet space, the time factor is essential because in these territories new generations of people are born who perceive themselves as full-fledged citizens of sovereign States.

The analysis of integration processes in post-Soviet space

The object of this research is the social, political and economic integration processes in post-Soviet space. The subject of this research is the model of assessment, construction of scenarios and forecast of integration processes. For the analysis, forecasting and assessment of risks of integration processes, the author employs two approaches: 1) usage of methods of the theory of security and mathematical modeling of integration (disintegration) processes of political and socioeconomic actors aimed and increase of their security; 2) assessment of challenges and unfavorable consequences using the paradigm “impossibility – risk – security”. The model of security is based on dichotomy (inextricable connection) of the values of sovereignty (development) and retention, and considers the key factors affecting successful development of the states, trans- and supranational formations: size and ethnic composition of population, interethnic relationship, social indicators of development. The experience of integration processes on the European continent is summarized. It is historically proven that the basis for economic integration consists in the effective mechanisms of political and military integration. The author develops three scenarios of integration in the post-Soviet space: 1) pessimistic, commonwealth of states – insurance of the freedom of movement of commodities, services, capital and workforce, and realization of the coordinated or single policy with regards to economic sectors; 2) realistic, federation with the elements of confederation – joint administration of the Union cover 50% of state functions; 3) optimistic, being a part of the Russian Federation – joint administration of Federation covers80% of state functions, with the possibility of significant increase of country’s security, if 3-7 republics of the former Soviet Union are a part of Russia. The quantitative analysis of geopolitical situation demonstrates the presence of favorable conditions for integration processes.

Проблематика малых стран на примере Прибалтики в работах российских исследователей

The article provides an overview of national research on the problems of the Baltic states and the development of small states and their role in international relations. It revealed a deficit of political work on this topic. There are no comprehensive studies that would enable to carry out a deep analysis of the cause-effect relationship in elite activities. This creates the risk of closure of the study power groups in small states mainly in intra-factors. Author emphasized the prospect of deeper analytical study of the small states of the concept in relation to the Baltic states taking into account their active participation in political processes in post-Soviet space. The concept of a small states and the political elite, leading a small state, it is one of the potential growth points of theoretical knowledge with the latest trends in the development of the political realities in the national and international levels.

Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

Inter-ethnic processes in post-Soviet space: theoretical background

This introductory article of a special issue outlines the general theoretical background, formulates principles for a continuum of hot and cold ethnicities, gives a brief characterisation of the interethnic developments after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and provides an overview of the papers. This collection of contributions deals with a variety of case studies with a particular focus on the strength of members' emotional attachment to their group. Such a division of ethnicities can be categorised into two prototypes: ‘hot’ and ‘cold’. A ‘hot’ ethnic group is one whose members have a high emotional attachment to their group. ‘Cold’ ethnic groups are those whose members' emotional attachment to the groups is low, absent or latent.

Georgia: Rise and Fall of the Façade Democracy

Jaba Devdariani is founding director and chairman of the board of the United Nations Association (UNA) in Georgia.Georgia's revolution of roses, November 22-3, 2003, brought an unprecedented generational change in post-Soviet political leaderships, based on public support for the democracy. Like every revolution, it tells a story of reform.Gradual weakening of Eduard Shevardnadze's government has been observed both by national and international analysts who spoke of Georgia as a failed state. But, more important, Shevardnadze's inflexible style of governance acted as a straightjacket for the political environment that grew increasingly complex since Georgia's independence.On November 23, Eduard Shevardnadze was forced to resign his office, amid the wave of public protests against rigged parliamentary elections, after ruling the country for twelve consecutive years and being in the country's top leadership since the 1970s.Some observers refer to these events as a surprise breakthrough of democracy. Others point out that the leaders who deposed the president were among the top ten leaders of Shevardnadze's own Citizens Union of Georgia in the 1999 parliamentary elections. Thus, the critics say no significant political change has occurred.To put Georgia's revolution of roses in a proper context, it is necessary to analyze the pressures that the country's social and partisan environment put on the political system that personally became associated with Shevardnadze since the 1990s.Only by fusing both of these observations can we tell a story of emergence of the country's democratic institutions, party politics, and reform.PrefaceForty-five political entities, thirteen of which were the party blocs, participated in Georgia's 1999 parliamentary elections. While the general level of party pluralism in Georgia is acknowledged widely, researchers have noted several deficiencies that prevent the political process from becoming a robust and sustainable foundation for the country's democratic development.Among the most frequently mentioned are: 11. Lack of internal party democracy2. Little or no effort to develop meaningful party platforms3. Little attention to membership4. Weak constituency relations5. Failure to separate elected party representatives from the management responsibilities6. Confrontationalism and a propensity to fractionalize 2These political party deficiencies are characteristic of many post-socialist countries. In Georgia, however, the party system had to be recreated from scratch at least twice in the country's recent history, leading to abortive development.The political parties emerged in Georgia in a process broadly reminiscent of similar processes in post-Soviet space. The elitist groups in ideological opposition to communism, commonly known as dissident groups, preceded the modern parties. They did not strive to gain control of the government; hence they cannot, strictly speaking, be characterized as political parties. Many of the dissident leaders have played an active role in the new political parties, and some still remain in the political arena.The political groups aspiring to power today emerged in the late 1980s and formed a vanguard of the independence movement. They succeeded the Communist regime through elections in 1990 but had little time to develop organizationally. Most of these groups squandered popular support in a bloody coup that ousted President Zviad Gamsakhurdia in early 1992. As a result, the rules of the political game and the system of political parties have taken shape since 1995.Different from many other post-socialist states, the Communist Party almost has vanished from the political arena since 1989. The former Communist nomenklatura has maintained some of its influence and financial assets, but as an organizational entity, the Communist Party never has recovered, attracting the protest vote. …