Fault Zone Processes Research Articles

Seasonal variability of groundwater contributions to fault-zone-hosted banff hot springs, Canada

Analysisof fault-zone-hosted thermal springs provides insights into deep fault-zone processes and crustal-scale fluid movements. However, shallow groundwater mixing obscures chemical signatures associated with deeply sourced groundwater, reducing the utility of thermal spring data for understanding deep fault-zone processes. The Upper Hot Spring (UH) in the Banff Hot Spring system exhibits substantial seasonal variability and is a valuable case for investigating shallow groundwater mixing in fault zones. UH chemistry aligns with binary mixing of cold tritium-rich groundwater from Sulphur Mountain and hot tritium-depleted water from the Sulphur Mountain Thrust (SMT) fault zone. Geochemical and isotopic data from lower elevation springs suggest the extension of binary mixing dynamics to lower elevations. Applying a Monte Carlo-based regression approach, strontium isotope mass balance models simulate one year of 87Sr/86Sr time series at UH within the margin of uncertainty. Utilizing mixing proportions derived from the model, tritium mass balance models successfully simulate the tritium time series at UH over the same period, providing cross-validation. Using relationships between mixing proportions and sulfate, hydrographs for the three highest elevation springs are separated into two components, revealing that the seasonal variability of both components decreases northward as spring elevation decreases. Utilizing common environmental tracers and bypassing direct sampling of inaccessible endmembers, the modeling approach used here may find global applicability for characterizing mixing in fault zones.

Diagenesis and lateral sealing types of fault zones in the Lishu Depression, Songliao Basin, NE China

The Lishu Depression in the Songliao Basin is characterized by well-developed faults, and the accumulation of oil and gas is closely related to fault sealing. However, there remains a dearth of comprehensive investigation into the diagenesis of fault zones and their influence on lateral sealing. This study employed electron probe analysis, cathodoluminescence, and carbon and oxygen isotope techniques to investigate the diagenetic processes in fault zones. This research also reconstructed the evolution of porosity and displacement pressure of fault rocks, and identified the lateral sealing characteristics of fault zones and their impact on oil and gas accumulation. The majority of faults in the study region formed earlier, and the fault zones experienced intricate diagenesis, characterized by compaction, cementation, replacement, and dissolution. The displacement pressure of fault rocks is higher during fault intermittent and static periods compared to active periods, and it is influenced by diagenesis. Late-stage calcite and pore-filling chlorite were deposited subsequent to the period of fault activity, filling dissolution pores. This led to relatively higher displacement pressure and improved lateral sealing of fault zone. The kaolinite cement exhibits a relatively elevated potassium concentration, due to its connection with the dissolution of feldspar, resulting in lower displacement pressure and poor sealing of fault zone. Based on the evolutionary characteristics of displacement pressure in fault rock and reservoir during various transportation stages, this study identified six types of lateral sealing of fault zones. Notably, the sealing types characterized by "fault core and damage zone sealing during static periods" and "fault core and damage zone sealing during intermittent and static periods" exhibit superior lateral sealing properties, effectively controlling the accumulation of oil and gas in the sand bodies on either side of the fault zone.

Hydrogeochemical and geothermal features of thermal springs along the Ganzi-Yushu fault, eastern Tibetan Plateau and its geological implications

Important fault zone processes can be discerned from the hydrothermal fluid circulation associated with active seismic sources. This study focused on the geochemical and isotopic features of the thermal waters along the Ganzi-Yushu fault (GZYSF) located in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. 22 spring samples were collected to characterize the chemical compositions and calculate the geothermal reservoir temperatures. The hydrothermal waters are mainly recharged by meteoric water based on the δ18O and δ2H values. Immature waters with a Na + -HCO3- or Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3- composition were recognized in the study area, combined with the poor correlation between K+, Na+, Mg2+, HCO3− and Cl− suggesting a shallow hydrothermal fluid source. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios and high concentrations of B (from 20.3 to 9445 μg/L) and Li (from 3.04 to 2380 μg/L) show a dissolution of silicate minerals containing calcium and magnesium during fluid circulation. The geothermometry in the silicon-enthalpy system suggested equilibrium temperatures up to 146 °C, whereas most are low temperatures. The shallow geothermal fields along GZYSF show that most large earthquakes (M＞5) were distributed in the transitional zone between high-value area and low-value area of the shallow geothermal field, suggesting a potential genetic link between geothermal field structure and earthquake nucleation along active faults. In conclusion, we proposed a conceptual model to portray the fluid circulation process. Such work can provide insights into the potential geothermal resource in Tibetan Plateau, and also investigate the processes controlling the fluid chemistry and the correlation with occurrence of earthquakes in the region.

Lowering of the kinetic barrier of clay-mineral reactions along a seismogenic fault: Example from the Nankai subduction zone, Japan

An analysis of clay minerals in core samples around the megasplay fault of the Nankai Trough, Japan, recovered during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment reveals a local progression of the smectite-to-illite conversion (S–I) reaction in the slip zone, possibly associated with local thermogenesis caused by seismic slip on the fault. Our semiquantitative X-ray diffraction analysis demonstrates that the illite content in mixed-layer illite/smectite is ∼15% higher in the gouge than in the host sediments. The thermal history of the fault, constrained in a previous study, requires a reduction of the apparent activation energy by 20–30% compared with the literature value to explain the observed illitization. The Shirako Fault in the Miura–Boso accretionary complex, which is thought to have been activated in a tectonic setting similar to that of the megasplay fault of the Nankai Trough, also shows a 20–30% reduction in the apparent activation energy. These results suggest that the kinetic barrier of the smectite–illite reaction is lowered as a result of mechanochemical processes in seismogenic fault zones.

Active ages of metallogenic structures in the Liangyan lead–zinc deposit, northwestern Guizhou: Constraints from geometric, kinematic, and sphalerite Rb-Sr dating analyses

More than ten lead–zinc deposits formed under the control of the Yadu-Mangdong fault (YMF) are known to have undergone multi-stage activity. However, ore control processes in such fault zones are poorly understood, such as in the Liangyan deposit in northwestern Guizhou. The internal geometrical structure, mineralization, alteration, tectonic stress, and kinematics of the YMF were investigated in three sections (1605, 1655, and 1720) of the Liangyan deposit. The ore-forming age (214.8 ± 4.3 Ma) was obtained by rubidium-strontium dating of sphalerite. The YMF is defined by double-fault cores and superimposed faults that indicate at least three stages of deformation since the mineralization period. The first stage is characterized by the ore-bearing dolomitization ancient fault core formed in the Indosinian period. The principal compressive stress direction was northwest to southeast (NW-SE). The second stage of Yanshanian was the tectonic breccia fault stage (new fault core). The principal compressive stress was northeast to southwest (NE-SW). The third stage was dominated by superposed faults that destroyed the new fault core in the Himalayan period. The principal compressive stress direction was east to west (E-W). In summary, we established a model of evolution for the YMF since the metallogenic period. In conclusion, based on the above research, we consider that the YMF turning point of the Liangyan deposit is prone to orebodies. Additionally, the prospecting target should be concentrated in the footwall (NW-trending) and hanging wall (NE-trending) of the Liangyan deposit YMF model.

A closer look into slickensides: Deformation on and under fault surfaces

Accurate descriptions of natural fault surfaces and associated fault rocks are important for understanding fault zone processes and properties. Slickensides--grooved polished surfaces that record displacement and wear along faults-- develop measurable roughness and characteristic microstructures during fault slip. We quantify the roughness of natural slickensides from three different fault surfaces by calculating the surfaces power spectra and height distributions and analyze the microstructures formed below the slickensides. Slickenside surfaces exhibit anisotropic self-affine roughness with corresponding mean Hurst exponents in directions parallel-- 0.53 ± 0.07-- and perpendicular --0.6 ± 0.1-- to slip, consistent with reports from other fault surfaces. Additionally, surfaces exhibit non-Gaussian height distributions, with their skewness and kurtosis roughness parameters having noticeable dependence on the scale of observation. Below the surface, microstructural analyses reveal that S–C–C′ fabrics develop adjacent to a C-plane-parallel principal slip zone characterized by a sharp decrease in clast size and a thin (≤100 μm) nanoparticulate-rich principal slip surface (PSS). These microstructures are present in most analyzed samples suggesting they commonly form during slickenside development regardless of lithology or tectonic setting. Our results suggests that 1) PSS likely arise by progressive localization along weaker oriented fabrics 2) deformation along PSS's is energetic enough to comminute the rocks into nanometric grains, and 3) fault geometry can be further characterized by studying the height distributions of fault surfaces, which are likely to impact stress distributions and frictional responses along faults.

Evaluation of tectonically enhanced radon in fault zones by quantification of the radon activity index

This work highlights the importance of the Geogenic Radon Potential (GRP) component originated by degassing processes in fault zones. This Tectonically Enhanced Radon (TER) can increase radon concentration in soil gas and the inflow of radon in the buildings (Indoor Radon Concentrations, IRC). Although tectonically related radon enhancement is known in areas characterised by active faults, few studies have investigated radon migration processes in non-active fault zones. The Pusteria Valley (Bolzano, north-eastern Italy) represents an ideal geological setting to study the role of a non-seismic fault system in enhancing the geogenic radon. Here, most of the municipalities are characterised by high IRC. We performed soil gas surveys in three of these municipalities located along a wide section of the non-seismic Pusteria fault system characterised by a dense network of faults and fractures. Results highlight the presence of high Rn concentrations (up to 800 kBq·m−3) with anisotropic spatial patterns oriented along the main strike of the fault system. We calculated a Radon Activity Index (RAI) along north–south profiles across the Pusteria fault system and found that TER is linked to high fault geochemical activities. This evidence confirms that TER constitutes a significant component of GRP also along non-seismic faults.

Laboratory Study on Frictional Behavior of Rock Blocks of Meter Scale. Methods and Preliminary Results

—The paper introduces a new, unique for Russia, meter-scale laboratory setup created in the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDG RAS) to study the development of different sliding regimes on rock discontinuities. The experimental procedure is described and the results of the first series of tests aimed at studying the formation of different sliding regimes on rock faults are presented. The laboratory fault was a loaded contact of two 75-cm long blocks made of diabase. The fault was filled with granular material (a fault gouge). Normal stresses on the fault can reach 10 MPa. By varying fault gouge composition and loading rate, we reproduced a wide range of sliding regimes: sliding with constant velocity, regular stick-slip, and aperiodic slow slip episodes. It is shown that a variation in the loading rate can cause a significant change in the sliding regime. Intense frictional crushing of gouge grains is detected in the experiments at relatively low normal pressure of 2 MPa. In the case of high-amplitude stick-slip, besides crushing of the gouge material, also structural phase transformations of quartz grains corresponding to a local temperature increase up to 700°C are revealed. A possible set of the problems related to deformation processes in seismogenic fault zones that can be addressed by modeling on such setups—the pre-seismic stage of inelastic behavior of the main fault zone at critical stress—is outlined.

Linking the scaling of tremor and slow slip near Parkfield, CA

There has been much debate about the fault zone processes that generate slow earthquakes, including tremor and slow slip. Indeed, we still debate whether tremor and slow slip are generated by the same process operating at different scales or by two distinct processes. Here we investigate tremor scaling near Parkfield, California; we examine how rupture duration scales with moment. We thoroughly search for and detect the low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) that constitute tremor and robustly estimate their durations. Our results show varying durations (0.1–0.6 s) and spectra for LFEs at the same location. These variations confirm a common assumption, that LFEs’ observed low frequency contents are due to source processes, not path effects. The LFEs’ amplitude and spectra variations are consistent with a linear moment-duration scaling: the same scaling observed among slow slip events. The similar scaling suggests that tremor and slow slip events are governed by the same fault zone process and that when we attempt to identify the process creating slow earthquakes, we should focus on processes which allow higher slip rates on smaller faults.

Frictional stability and hydromechanical coupling of serpentinite-bearing fault gouge

SUMMARY Observations of slow earthquakes and tremor have raised fundamental questions about the physics of quasi-dynamic rupture and the underlying fault zone processes. The presence of serpentinite at P-T conditions characteristic of deep tremor and slow earthquakes suggests that it plays an important role in controlling complex fault slip behaviour. Here, we report on experiments designed to investigate the frictional behaviour of serpentinite sampled from outcrop exposures (SO1 and SO2) of altered ultramafic rocks present at depth, and recovered from the SAFOD borehole (G27). XRD analyses reveal the presence of chrisotyle, lizardite, kaolinite, talc in SO1; lizardite, clinochlore and magnetite in SO2; and lizardite, quartz and calcite in G27. We sheared fault gouge in a double-direct shear configuration using a true triaxial deformation apparatus. The effective normal stress was varied from 2 to 40 MPa. We conducted velocity stepping tests and slide-hold-slide (SHS) tests in each experiment to characterize frictional stability and healing. At the end of each experiment, post-shear permeability was measured and the samples were recovered for microstructural analysis. The steady-state friction coefficient was μ = 0.17 for SO1, μ = 0.33 for SO2 and μ = 0.53 for G27. Overall, the gouges exhibit velocity strengthening behaviour, and become nearly velocity neutral at 40 MPa effective normal stress. SHS tests show positive healing rates for SO2 and G27, whereas SO1 exhibits zero or negative healing rates. Permeability decreases with increasing σn’, with SO1 (k = 10–20 m2) showing the lowest values. Microstructural observations reveal a well-developed R-Y-P fabric in SO1, which is not observed in SO2 and G27. We posit that the development of shear fabric controlled by mineralogy governs frictional and hydrological properties. In this context, when serpentinite is associated with other weak phyllosilicate minerals, frictional stability and hydrological properties can vary greatly, with a potential control on the mode of fault failure.

Grain-size-reducing- and mass-gaining processes in different hydrothermal fault rocks

AbstractInteractions of hydrothermal and deformation processes in active fault zones are important in light of seismic and geothermal activities. This study investigates different tectonites of the Grimselpass breccia fault, a hydrothermally active strike-slip structure in the Central Alps (Switzerland). We combine microstructural and geochemical investigations to decipher the interaction of grain-size reduction and associated dilation (volume gain) during frictional deformation with geochemical processes such as mass gain via precipitation, grain growth and healing. Three types of tectonites were investigated in the fault zone: (1) cockade-bearing tectonites, (2) cataclasites and (3) fault gouges. They differ in terms of microstructure of clasts, mass and volume gain/loss, as well as type and degree of cementation. Clast size distributions show decreasing median values from low-strain cataclasites to high-strain cataclasites. Mass/volume gains are up to 20 %, with samples of smallest clast sizes often showing the highest mass gain. In the case of cockade-bearing tectonites large volume and mass gain occur. In particular, the precipitation of SiO2-rich cements is inferred to (i) reduce permeability and (ii) induce a gain in strength of the respective fault rocks. Location, timing and degree of healing directly control the fault architecture by deactivating fault strands from the circulation of hydrothermal fluids. In this case, new rupturing events are necessary to reactivate locked fault strands. Such feedback cycles of episodic deformation, mass/volume and clogging preserved hydrothermal circulation and deformation over the last 3.4 Ma, representing a process chain for the long-term preservation of orogenic hydrothermal systems.

Raman Spectral Shifts in Naturally Faulted Rocks

AbstractRaman spectral shifts of carbonaceous materials arising from faulted rocks produce varied and complex results. By analyzing faulted and adjacent non‐faulted samples from three discrete localities in France, Italy, and Morocco, we assess changes in specific Raman parameters, including G‐peak width, G‐peak position, and peak intensity ratios. We consistently observe a shift in Raman parameters between faulted and non‐faulted samples; however, the direction and magnitude of this shift varies. Raman peak intensity ratios are shown to both increase and decrease on fault planes. The majority of samples exhibit decreasing peak width and peak position in the faulted samples, but this is not consistent; in two samples an increase is observed, but the shift tends to be small. These data are compared to published Raman spectral shifts from experimental fault data. Our results suggest that fault zone deformation processes may measurably change the carbon nanostructure in faulted rocks. The inconsistent nature of Raman spectral shifts in the fault rock samples analyzed, and those published suggest that a complex set of factors control carbon nanostructure changes in fault rocks. These factors, although not discriminated here, likely include, background temperature, frictional heating, strain, carbonaceous material type, amongst others. We have shown that Raman Spectral shifts occur in faulted rocks with implications for how Raman data are used to predict maximum temperatures in faulted sedimentary rocks. We recognize the potential for a range of fault zone processes to modify Raman spectral shifts, however, systematic sampling across individual fault zones is critical.

Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry of fault rocks and its possibilities: tectonic implications from calcites within Himalayan Frontal Fold-Thrust Belt

Disentangling the temperature and depth of formation of fault rocks is critical for understanding their rheology, exhumation, and the evolution of fault zones. Estimation of fault rock temperatures mostly relies on conventional geothermometers of metamorphic minerals and element partitioning analysis, which are largely inapplicable in shallow crustal fault rocks. Here, we demonstrate the applicability of the carbonate clumped isotope thermometer in low-grade carbonate-bearing fault rocks from the Himalayan frontal wedge (northwest India). Coalescing carbonate clumped isotope thermometry and calcite e-twin morphology allows us to constrain the temperature and depth of formation of the two main thrusts of the Himalayan frontal wedge, the Nahan thrust (170 ± 10 °C; 6–7 km depth), and the Main Boundary thrust (262 ± 30 °C; 10–11 km depth). The integration of the adopted analytical techniques can promote the application of calcite-based clumped isotope thermometry to the fault zone processes and refinement of shallow crustal fault zone models.

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes.

Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

Evidence of hydrothermal fluid circulation driving elemental mass redistribution in an active fault zone

Important fault zone processes can be discerned from the characterization of fracture damage and chemical transformations associated with active seismic sources. To characterize the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah rupture zone, continuous samples of fault core and 23 samples of damaged rock were collected perpendicular to strike of the Borrego fault. Samples were analyzed for clay mineralogy, bulk geochemistry, and bulk and grain density from which porosities and volumetric strains were derived. Prior to the Borrego fault forming, the tonalitic protolith, containing chlorite, epidote, and titanite, was subjected to temperatures of ∼330–340 °C during deuteric alteration. Rocks within the damage zone are partially pulverized and contain abundant cataclastic seams. Porosity and volumetric strain peak in zones 1.5 m–10.5 m from the core. Within these zones, losses in Ca and P mass, increases in Mg and Na mass, along with the conservation of Fe and Si mass are consistent with oxidizing acidic conditions at < 200 °C. Gains in LOI are attributed to increases in clay content. The above data support a model of Mg- and Na-rich oxidizing fluid circulation within the damage zone of the Borrego fault.

Understanding earthquakes using the geological record: an introduction

Understanding earthquakes using the geological record: an introduction

The Influence of Mixing Orders on the Microstructure of Artificially Prepared Sand‐Clay Mixtures

The mixing order of silica sand, clay (kaolinite), and water controls the microstructure of resulting artificial soil samples. Most homogeneous microstructures can be achieved by applying the mixing order “sand‐water‐clay.” The following methods were used to validate this statement: (1) optical observation, (2) X‐ray tomography, (3) scanning electron microscopy, and (4) Mercury intrusion porosimetry. For all samples, clays are mainly organized in a homogeneous matrix but are also dispersed heterogeneously in micrometer‐sized layers surrounding sand particles, particularly where sand grains show a greater roughness. At water contents ≥1.5 wL, the microstructures are visually similar from the mm to μm scale whatever mixing order is used. However, for water contents lower than 1.5 wL, the mixing order controls the distribution of the clay particles. This paper proposes a motivated choice of a preparation protocol of artificial clayey materials to be used in laboratory experiments. It might contribute to better understanding and modeling grain movements and arrangements in artificial muds, used for instance in underground mining, foundation settlement, hydraulic containment, road construction, soil stabilization, and in natural soils in the occurrence of soil liquefaction, industrial brick manufacturing, and in studying shear processes in tectonic fault zones.

Size distribution of survivor clasts in pseudotachylyte and cataclasite: Implications for crushing and melting processes in seismic fault zones

Quartz/feldspar fragment (‘clast’) sizes were measured in thin sections of three types of fault zone rocks, e.g., melting-dominated pseudotachylyte (M-Pt), crushing-dominated pseudotachylyte (C-Pt) and cataclasite (Ct), from two well-studied Precambrian shear/fault zones in the Indian craton (e.g., the Gavilgarh–Tan Shear zone in central India and the Sarwar–Junia Fault zone in western India). Logarithmic plots of clast area vs. cumulative frequency in the pseudotachylytes demonstrate a fractal clast-size distribution (c.s.d.) for the intermediate size range, whereas the finer and coarser clast size fractions clearly deviate from the fractal trend. Under-representation of the finer size clasts in the pseudotachylyte samples may be attributed to their preferential melting and removal from the clast population. The relative paucity of coarse clasts, on the other hand, is possibly due to a sampling bias against coarse clasts. The c.s.d of the cataclastic rock shows a multi-fractal character with two different slopes (i.e., lower D-value for finer clast sizes) and absence of the left-hand (finer size) fall off. This suggests less efficient crushing in the finer clast size fraction. The proportion of clasts, compared to the matrix, is very small in M-Pt, increases in C-Pt and is highest in Ct, suggesting that melting of rock/mineral fragments is a dominant process in forming M-Pt, whereas it is less significant in C-Pt, and is absent in Ct, which corroborates the microscopic observations.

Iron Oxide (U–Th)/He Thermochronology: New Perspectives on Faults, Fluids, and Heat

Fault zones record the dynamic motion of Earth’s crust and are sites of heat exchange, fluid–rock interaction, and mineralization. Episodic or long-lived fluid flow, frictional heating, and/or deformation can induce open-system chemical behavior and make dating fault zone processes challenging. Iron oxides are common in a variety of geologic settings, including faults and fractures, and can grow at surface-to magmatic temperatures. Recently, iron oxide (U–Th)/He thermochronology, coupled with microtextural and trace element analyses, has enabled new avenues of research into the timing and nature of fluid–rock interactions and deformation. These constraints are important for understanding fault zone evolution in space and time.

Acoustic Energy Release During the Laboratory Seismic Cycle: Insights on Laboratory Earthquake Precursors and Prediction.

Machine learning can predict the timing and magnitude of laboratory earthquakes using statistics of acoustic emissions. The evolution of acoustic energy is critical for lab earthquake prediction; however, the connections between acoustic energy and fault zone processes leading to failure are poorly understood. Here, we document in detail the temporal evolution of acoustic energy during the laboratory seismic cycle. We report on friction experiments for a range of shearing velocities, normal stresses, and granular particle sizes. Acoustic emission data are recorded continuously throughout shear using broadband piezo‐ceramic sensors. The coseismic acoustic energy release scales directly with stress drop and is consistent with concepts of frictional contact mechanics and time‐dependent fault healing. Experiments conducted with larger grains (10.5 μm) show that the temporal evolution of acoustic energy scales directly with fault slip rate. In particular, the acoustic energy is low when the fault is locked and increases to a maximum during coseismic failure. Data from traditional slide‐hold‐slide friction tests confirm that acoustic energy release is closely linked to fault slip rate. Furthermore, variations in the true contact area of fault zone particles play a key role in the generation of acoustic energy. Our data show that acoustic radiation is related primarily to breaking/sliding of frictional contact junctions, which suggests that machine learning‐based laboratory earthquake prediction derives from frictional weakening processes that begin very early in the seismic cycle and well before macroscopic failure.