Process Tracing Research Articles

The Integration of Bayesian Regression Analysis and Bayesian Process Tracing in Mixed-Methods Research

The Integration of Bayesian Regression Analysis and Bayesian Process Tracing in Mixed-Methods Research

The political drivers of antipoverty policy in Italy: persistence, change and reversals

Abstract This article analyses the political determinants of antipoverty policy in Italy between 1948 and 2022, providing a long-term analysis of the Italian minimum income scheme. We look for an explanation of that evolution drawing on three theoretical perspectives: veto players, gradual institutional change, and party competition. Our methodology is process tracing which involves the examination of ‘diagnostic’ pieces of evidence for our broad political-historical analysis. We argue that the so called ‘neglect’ phase until 1992 can be explained by the veto players theory, the period after 1992 by gradual institutional change, whereas the final introduction of a minimum income scheme in 2018 is the result of competitive dynamics. The main lesson is that a case study analysis of the politics of anti-poverty policy offers fresh insights into a major challenge in capitalist systems, combating rising poverty trends.

La gobernanza regional compleja del comercio electrónico latinoamericano: una perspectiva comparada de la Alianza del Pacífico, la Comunidad Andina y el Mercosur

Objective/context: The proliferation in the number, depth, and scope of e-commerce agreements has integrated shared agendas and memberships within Latin America’s complex regional governance, making cooperation and fragmentation non-exclusive practices. Therefore, this article asks about the conditions that have facilitated or limited the development of a Latin American digital market. Methodology: A comparative qualitative analysis of the Pacific Alliance, the Andean Community, and Mercosur, together with process tracing, will shed light on their progress in this area, taking into account the degree of linkage they maintain with three mechanisms that foster collaboration and coordination dynamics among various institutions an d actors. Conclusions: The analysis shows that, within systems characterized by growing institutional density and diversity— such as the Latin American e-commerce environment—regional cooperation can be facilitated when regional trade agreements are embedded in a broader trade regime, where there is a clear sequencing among different agreements, and when orchestrators and policy networks are present. In contrast, their absence leads to ineffective agreement implementation and increased regional fragmentation. Originality: This work connects studies on complex regional governance with a relatively underexplored agenda in Latin American academic literature: e-commerce.

The unlikely marriage of counterterrorism and Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Indonesia

ABSTRACT This article examines Indonesia’s strategic shift from a “hard” counterterrorism approach to a gender-sensitive, community-based strategy for Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) between 2016 and 2021. It analyses Indonesia’s shift from traditional security-centric responses, which emphasised law enforcement and military actions, to community engagement and human rights-based approaches influenced by women-led civil society organisations (CSOs). This shift underscores inclusion and gender in prevention strategies. Drawing on feminist mobilisation and norm localisation theories, particularly the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Agenda, this research explores the institutionalisation of gender-responsive approaches. While acknowledging the importance of religious moderation as a counternarrative to extremist ideologies – a prominent discourse in Indonesian foreign policy since 2004— this article critiques the securitisation of gender within counterterrorism frameworks. It underscores how this “Moderate Islamic” ideology shapes both domestic and international P/CVE strategies. This study demonstrates how Indonesia’s approach is a potential model for broader application within the Global South through a literature review, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and process tracing. Ultimately, it offers valuable lessons for integrating the WPS Agenda into P/CVE efforts while addressing challenges related to policy sustainability, effectiveness, and balancing domestic norms with global counterterrorism expectations.

Resolution and resistance: what shaped New Zealand’s climate change policies under the sixth Labour government?

ABSTRACT The sixth Labour government under Jacinda Ardern placed climate change at the centre of their agenda, referring to it as the ‘greatest challenge facing the world’. Definite progress was made on climate policy during the government’s tenure, particularly with the flagship Zero Carbon Act. Overall, however, policy changes were not transformative, and few policies were enacted that will substantially decrease emissions. This article sheds light on this gap between the sixth Labour government’s resolution to tackle climate change and the reality of actual policy outputs. We ask: what are the main factors that shaped climate policy outputs under the sixth Labour government? Using process tracing, we examine the ‘digital wake’ of key debates in three climate policy domains of energy, transport and agriculture. Using publicly available documents to investigate policies pursued by the government between 2018 and 2022, we find that industry resistance (particularly from the farming sector), coalition dynamics and public opinion all hindered progress. However, the government was not always fully committed to climate action,g particularly on reducing agricultural emissions. The difficulties experienced by the sixth Labour government in achieving their climate ambitions illustrate the strong political headwinds that impede delivery of substantive climate change mitigation in New Zealand.

Civil society and societal security

Over time civil society has played an important role in holding the governments accountable for their action and informing the public. Moreover, it has been a critical contributor to preserving democratic developments and to promoting the rule of law. On the other hand, societal security is a core component of healthy societies and it cannot be achieved without strong civic support. The existing literature extensively covers both topics (civil society & societal security), but the nexus between them has not been thoroughly examined. This research delves into the intricate relationship between civil society and societal security, examining the dynamics within the Republic of Moldova and Romania against the backdrop of the contemporary geopolitical landscape. The study is driven by the need to understand how civil society functions as a critical factor in shaping and safeguarding societal security, particularly in countries exposed to unconventional threats. The qualitative analysis is based on publicly available data sets (focusing on democracy, civil society, identity and security), and the main analysis method is process tracing. The hypotheses are formulated based on the following indicators: identity resilience, societal resilience, community cohesion, addressing threats and public engagement. Therefore, the focus of this research is on observing the influence of the civil society on societal security in the Republic of Moldova and Romania based on a comparative assessment of these two states.

The Competition of Dominant Powers in the International System and the US-China Encounter in the Horn of Africa (2012-2022)

This study examines the power competition between the United States (US) and China in the Horn of Africa within the framework of Power Transition Theory (PTT). Using the concept of dissatisfaction, the study explores three main hypotheses: 1) the US as a satisfied dominant power and China as a dissatisfied rising power; 2) the US as a dissatisfied dominant power and China as a satisfied rising power; and 3) both actors being satisfied with the current international system. The Multiple Hierarchy Model is also applied when arguing these hypotheses. Through theorytesting process tracing, the study analyzes the geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of the competition in the Horn of Africa, focusing on military presence, technological infrastructure, regional disputes, and economic investments. The findings highlight how the strategic location of Djibouti and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait plays a critical role in the US-China rivalry, influencing military strategies, telecommunications projects, and regional stability efforts. The study concludes that both the US and China engage in a mix of competition and cooperation, with significant impacts on the Horn of Africa’s political and economic landscape. This nuanced analysis contributes to the literature on PTT by providing empirical insights into the complex dynamics of US-China relations in a strategically vital region.

When Public Opinion Left Behind: The Case Rejection of Visa on Arrival for Russian Tourists

The Visa on Arrival is Indonesia's foreign policy instrument to boost tourism. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had an impact on the increasing arrival of Russian tourists to Indonesia. The increasing number of Russians was also directly proportional to the violative and negative sentiments about Russian tourists on social media, public demands to revoke their visa. Despite negative public opinion, the Indonesian government still maintained visa on arrival for Russians. This paper analysed the case study by using Doeser’s (2013) model on circumstances when democratic governments neglected public opinion in foreign policy, with its indicators: issue salience, elite debate, and elite perceptions of international gains. This qualitative research used social media analysis to deconstruct the public opinion on issue salience and causal process tracing was used to analyse the context and development of the case. Interviews were conducted to obtain information and confirm the findings. This study found that the neglected of public opinion was carried out because the case categorized as non-critical issue happened episodically thus had low salience. Low media coverage and asymmetrical elite debates resulted in elite consensus. Then, Indonesia avoided economic and political losses and maintained bilateral relations with Russia.

Understanding State Formation: The Role of Political Parties in South Sudanese State-crafting and Failure

State crafting, failure and, collapse is an interesting area of social science research, which has been remotely examined by comparative political scientists. The paper comprehensively examines the crafting and failure of South Sudanese state. It conceptualizes state, state-crafting, state failure and collapse. It surveys the role of political parties in understanding state-crafting and failure in South Sudan. Empirically, the paper argues that South Sudanese political parties particularly, Sudan People’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) have contributed in South Sudanese failure than crafting and prosperity. This is demonstrated through ethnicization of politics and politicization of ethnicity and through ethnic divisions. Using empirical literature, the paper discusses state crafting, failure and dissects the role of political parties in which SPLM has a big hand in the state failure of South Sudan. In its methodology, the paper deploys primary and secondary sources in tapping the understanding of the role of South Sudanese political parties in state-crafting and failure. Primary data include the use of questionnaires and interviews in comprehending state formation and in particular, the role played by South Sudanese political parties in nascent state-crafting and failure. Secondary sources include the use of literature review in understanding political parties and their role in South Sudanese state failure. The study uses a sample size of 200 respondents with sample types of persuasives and cluster sampling combined. The study also combines case study and process tracing methods to contextualize and validate causal chains and empirical casual processes of South Sudan state formation and role of political parties in state-crafting and failure. The results of the study indicate that SPLM as a main ruling party has a huge contribution in South Sudanese state failure. While other 28 registered political parties are ethnic-based given that because they don’t have national programmes across South Sudan, their contributed to South Sudanese state failure cannot be equated with SPLM. These 28 parties have their presence in the bomas, payams and counties only and have endeavored to promote ethnic divisions and violence in South Sudan. Finally, the paper draws conclusions on the need for civic role of political parties in state-crafting and democratization of South Sudan. The paper recommends future research on the role of SPLM party in reversing state failure and rescuing South Sudan from collapse.

Structural positional encoding for knowledge integration in transformer-based medical process monitoring and trace classification

Structural positional encoding for knowledge integration in transformer-based medical process monitoring and trace classification

How security shaped Libya’s transition

ABSTRACT The divergent transition trajectories on which some countries in the MENA region embarked after the 2011 uprisings sparked extensive scholarly attention. While the state remained largely intact in Egypt or Tunisia, the violent revolt in Libya led to civil conflicts and the collapse of governmental institutions. However, there is limited research examining the consequences of such collapse in the post-conflict scenario. This article aims to fill this void in the literature and analyses what shaped the transition path in Libya after regime change focusing on the security factors. It uses qualitative content analysis of official documents and media reports, and 26 semi-structured interviews conducted in 2023 with key Libyan respondents including a former deputy prime minister, former ministers, current and former MPs, a former secretary general of a political party, a former director of a Libyan TV channel, radio broadcasters, NGOs leaders, human rights activists, and others. The data analysis is done with the help of process tracing. The main results indicate that several domestic and international security factors such as, the type of military response to the uprising, non-state armed groups, and external intervention shaped the country’s transition.

Trace Encoding Techniques for Multi‐Perspective Process Mining: A Comparative Study

ABSTRACTProcess mining (PM) comprises a variety of methods for discovering information about processes from their execution logs. Some of them, such as trace clustering, trace classification, and anomalous trace detection require a preliminary preprocessing step in which the raw data is encoded into a numerical feature space. To this end, encoding techniques are used to generate vectorial representations of process traces. Most of the PM literature provides trace encoding techniques that look at the control flow, that is, only encode the sequence of activities that characterize a process trace disregarding other process data that is fundamental for effectively describing the process behavior. To fill this gap, in this article we show 19 trace encoding methods that work in a multi‐perspective manner, that is, by embedding events and trace attributes in addition to activity names into the vectorial representations of process traces. We also provide an extensive experimental study where these techniques are applied to real‐life datasets and compared to each other.

Process tracing and non-state violent actors: ensuring methodological rigor in the study of non-state violent actors (without getting yourself killed)

ABSTRACT Study of non-state violent actors can be impeded by a variety of challenges inherent to the these organizations. Methodologies not well-suited to these dynamics may result in peril for the researcher and/or her subjects, and lead to perhaps less rigorous findings. We argue here that the ontology of process tracing is conducive to highly rigorous and safe examination of NSVAs. Here, we highlight a collection of data collection strategies that are particularly useful in this research; introduce and evaluate the rigor of triangulating across data voices; and introducing the term evidentiary heterogeneity to emphasize the value of diversifying data sources across cases.

Informal procedures, institutional change, and EU decision-making: evaluating the effects of the 1974 Paris summit

ABSTRACT The Paris summit of 1974 produced an informal agreement to renounce a previous informal agreement, the famous Luxembourg Compromise of 1966 about qualified majority voting (QMV). The dominant view within existing scholarship is that the Paris summit had no effect because the Luxembourg Compromise and its consensus norm persisted at least into the 1980s: QMV was inoperative before and remained inoperative after. Using quantitative analysis and extensive process tracing, we provide the first systematic empirical test of this conventional view and of the summit’s effects. Although superficially our null finding (no effect) appears to confirm previous accounts, it constitutes further evidence against prevailing ‘veto culture’ narratives and challenges existing theories about informal institutions and institutional change.

When Expertise Is Not Enough: Explaining the European Commission's Non‐success in the Integration of Public Sector Accounting

AbstractThe European Commission crucially relies on expertise and advice to fulfil its focal role in drafting policies. For this reason, it maintains numerous expert groups. When handling technical complex cases, expert groups engage in deliberative supranationalist problem‐solving that is driven by logic and knowledge. Based on the Commission's policy initiative to develop European Public Sector Accounting Standards (EPSAS) for the integration of European Union member states' government accounting practices, this study investigates how and under what conditions policy incentives translate via expert group deliberations into draft policies. Drawing on policy design literature and using process tracing, this study finds that pre‐existing policy instruments or design choices on higher order policy elements could lead to challenges in achieving the integrity and superiority of solutions at the level of calibration and street‐level requirements, thus failing to produce the necessary expert consensus.

European Science Diplomacy in the Southern Neighbourhood: Insights from Morocco and Tunisia

The resilience-building in the European Southern Neighbourhood benefits from access to research-intense solutions developed by and in collaboration with centres of competence located across Europe. Data-set observations retrieved from ‘Community Research and Development Information Service’ (CORDIS) indicate that despite the overall propensity towards establishing relational ties with Horizon 2020 project coordinators located in the European Mediterranean littoral countries, Morocco and Tunisia, profited from exposure to the thematically diverse and geographically dispersed expertise hosted by the European Research Area. Practice theory with a focus on the field and process tracing provide a good basis for analysing past research interlinks that offer some limited, yet valuable insights into the implicit European science diplomacy routines, including examples that support the positioning of France, Spain, especially Barcelona, as explicit science diplomacy hubs.

A Geoeconomic Fix? European Industrial Policy on Semiconductors Amidst Global Competition

AbstractThis article observes that state actors in the emerging geoeconomic order are increasingly intervening in value chains that are politically regarded as strategic, with the aim of anchoring production capacities in their own territory. Drawing on David Harvey's concept of the ‘spatial fix’ and modifying it for the geoeconomic constellation, the article describes this phenomenon as a ‘geoeconomic fix’. However, this geoeconomic fix can only be achieved in co‐operation with industrial actors that possess strategic capabilities and technological know‐how. In a case study of European semiconductor policy from 2012 to 2023, the contribution traces changes in European industrial policy. Using process tracing, the article analyses key documents and statements from European Union (EU) institutions and industry actors. The results demonstrate that the geoeconomization of European semiconductor policy is accompanied by an increasing political focus on the spatial reorganization of the semiconductor value chain. The European semiconductor industry is driving this geoeconomization.

A Theoretical Review of Area Production Rates as Test Statistics for Detecting Nonequilibrium Dynamics in Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes

A stochastic process is at thermodynamic equilibrium if it obeys time-reversal symmetry; forward and reverse time are statistically indistinguishable at a steady state. Nonequilibrium processes break time-reversal symmetry by maintaining circulating probability currents. In physical processes, these currents require a continual use and exchange of energy. Accordingly, signatures of nonequilibrium behavior are important markers of energy use in biophysical systems. In this article, we consider a particular signature of nonequilibrium behavior: area production rates. These are the average rate at which a stochastic process traces out signed area in its projections onto coordinate planes. Area production is an example of a linear observable: a path integral over an observed trajectory against a linear vector field. We provide a summary review of area production rates in Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) processes. Then, we show that, given an OU process, a weighted Frobenius norm of the area production rate matrix is the optimal test statistic for detecting nonequilibrium behavior in the sense that its coefficient of variation decays faster in the length of time observed than the coefficient of variation of any other linear observable. We conclude by showing that this test statistic estimates the entropy production rate of the process.

INTERWEAVING DIPLOMACY, DATA, AND TECHNOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABILITY: A CASE STUDY OF BARCELONA’S LOCAL GOVERNANCE

Local governance plays a crucial role in sustainable development. While research has examined diplomacy, data, and technology within local governance, their combined impact still needs to be explored. This study aimed to investigate how the city of Barcelona integrated diplomatic relations, data-driven insights, and technological advancements to propel local sustainability efforts. Employing a qualitative approach with a multi-method design, the study explored the interaction of diplomacy, data, and technology in fostering sustainable community development. The tracing process involved analyzing official reports, city council documents, and academic publications from 2015 to 2023. In-case analysis complemented process tracing and focused on specific policies, programs, and practices that promoted data-driven decision-making and technology use within Barcelona’s sustainability efforts. The detailed examination included documents from the Barcelona city website and other official sources. The Inductive, Descriptive Case Study allowed natural phenomena to emerge; finally, thematic analysis categorized patterns and identified key themes related to diplomacy, data, and digital technologies within Barcelona’s LGSD context. The investigation revealed a compelling three-pronged approach: (i) Cross-sectoral Diplomacy and Engagement: Barcelona fostered a collaborative environment where diverse stakeholders worked in concert. (ii) Data-Driven Decision Making: The city leveraged the power of data to inform strategic policy choices. (iii) Technology-Enhanced Governance: Technology acted as a catalyst, streamlining and optimizing governance processes. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in other countries seeking to adopt similar strategies. Further research must explore context-specific implementation approaches and diplomatic strategies, considering different regions' diverse social, civic, political, and economic landscapes.

The Scenario of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) & Increased Women’s Empowerment in Bangladesh

Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) remains a significant issue in Bangladesh, despite the recent strides in women’s empowerment. This study investigates whether the empowerment of women plays a role in reducing IPV, while also examining the influence of a patriarchal social structure on this dynamic. Utilizing qualitative research methods, this analysis draws primarily on secondary data sources, including journal articles, prior studies, news reports, and editorials. Process tracing, a storytelling-based analytical tool, is employed to explore the patterns and relationships involved. The findings suggest that while women's empowerment serves as a mitigating factor in reducing IPV, the entrenched patriarchal nature of male dominance initially triggers resistance to both empowerment and IPV reduction efforts. Nonetheless, the study argues that this resistance can be overcome through concerted efforts, involving government and NGO initiatives that focus on effective law enforcement, supportive policies, and the creation of a safe and respectful environment for women. These collaborative approaches offer promising pathways for addressing IPV in Bangladesh.