Average Process Research Articles

Restoration and Segmentation of Old Jawi Manuscripts using Variational Image Inpainting and Active Contour Models

Old Jawi Manuscripts (OJM) are crucial to historical studies, offering insights into past societies. However, degradation from mishandling and environmental factors can impair their legibility. To preserve OJM, image inpainting and segmentation are essential for restoring corrupted areas and identifying text. Recently, the Gaussian Regularization Segmentation (GRS) model has shown effectiveness in intensity inhomogeneity grayscale image segmentation, though it was not designed for corrupted OJM images. Therefore, this study aimed to reformulate the GRS model to restore and segment text from real corrupted OJM images. The methodology begins with the incorporation of the Mumford-Shah and Bertalmio inpainting models into the GRS model as new fitting terms, resulting in the Modified Gaussian Regularization Segmentation Mumford-Shah (MGRSM) model and the Modified Gaussian Regularization Segmentation Bertalmio (MGRSB) model, respectively. MATLAB was used to implement these models, and their performance was assessed on 30 corrupted OJM samples from Malay Ethnomathematics Research Group, with expert evaluations and efficiency measured by average elapsed time. The MGRSM model achieved 38.4 percent and 12.4 percent higher overall total scores from experts in terms of segmentation accuracy compared to the GRS and MGRSB models, respectively. While the GRS model is the fastest, the MGRSM model provides superior accuracy, with an average processing time of 9.35 seconds, making it the most optimal for restoring and segmenting OJM images. This approach not only enhances the preservation of historical manuscripts but also provides a practical tool for researchers and historians in safeguarding our cultural heritage.

A posteriori error estimation and adaptivity for temporal multiscale problems

AbstractIn science and engineering, problems over multiple scales in time often arise. Two examples are material damage in oscillating structures or plaque growth in pulsating blood vessels. Here the long term effects are of interest but they depend on the coupled fast‐changing physical processes which must be taken into account. One method to efficiently simulate these problems is to split them into an averaged slow scale process and a localized fast scale process. We apply the dual weighted residual method on a generalized formulation for this type of problem to obtain an error estimator which can be used for adaptive refinement. Special care must be taken to separate the slow scale and fast scale influences on the estimator.

Enhancing Online Security: A Novel Machine Learning Framework for Robust Detection of Known and Unknown Malicious URLs

The rapid expansion of the internet has led to a corresponding surge in malicious online activities, posing significant threats to users and organizations. Cybercriminals exploit malicious uniform resource locators (URLs) to disseminate harmful content, execute phishing schemes, and orchestrate various cyber attacks. As these threats evolve, detecting malicious URLs (MURLs) has become crucial for safeguarding internet users and ensuring a secure online environment. In response to this urgent need, we propose a novel machine learning-driven framework designed to identify known and unknown MURLs effectively. Our approach leverages a comprehensive dataset encompassing various labels—including benign, phishing, defacement, and malware—to engineer a robust set of features validated through extensive statistical analyses. The resulting malicious URL detection system (MUDS) combines supervised machine learning techniques, tree-based algorithms, and advanced data preprocessing, achieving a high detection accuracy of 96.83% for known MURLs. For unknown MURLs, the proposed framework utilizes CL_K-means, a modified k-means clustering algorithm, alongside two additional biased classifiers, achieving 92.54% accuracy on simulated zero-day datasets. With an average processing time of under 14 milliseconds per instance, MUDS is optimized for real-time integration into network endpoint systems. These outcomes highlight the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed MUDS in fortifying online security by identifying and mitigating MURLs, thereby reinforcing the digital landscape against cyber threats.

Effect of attention on ensemble perception: Comparison between exogenous attention, endogenous attention, and depth.

Ensemble perception is an important ability of human beings that allows one to extract summary information for scenes and environments that contain information that far exceeds the processing limit of the visual system. Although attention has been shown to bias ensemble perception, two important questions remain unclear: (1) whether direct manipulations on different types of spatial attention could produce similar effects on ensembles and (2) whether factors potentially influencing the attention distribution, such as depth perception, could evoke an indirect effect of attention on ensemble representation. This study aims to address these questions. In Experiments 1 and 2, two types of precues were used to evoke exogenous and endogenous attention, respectively, and the ensemble color perceptions were examined. We found that both exogenous and endogenous attention biased ensemble representation towards the attended items, and the latter produced a greater effect. In Experiments 3 and 4, we examined whether depth perception could affect color ensembles by indirectly influencing attention allocation in 3D space. The items were separated in two depth planes, and no explicit cues were applied. The results showed that color ensemble was biased to closer items when depth information was task relevant. This suggests that ensemble perception is naturally biased in 3D space, probably through the mechanism of attention. Computational modeling consistently showed that attention exerted a direct shift on the ensemble statistics rather than averaging the feature values over the cued and noncued items, providing evidence against an averaging process of individual perception.

Improved lane detection for autonomous vehicles using deep learning, semantic segmentation, edge detection and multi-sensor data fusion

Automated driving has gained significant attention because it can eliminate severe driving risks in real time. While autonomous vehicles rely heavily on sensors for lane detection, obstacle identification, and environmental awareness, accurate lane recognition remains a persistent challenge due to factors such as noise from shadows, poor lane markings, and obstructed views. Despite advances in computer vision, this problem is yet to be fully resolved, presenting a gap in the current literature. The primary objective of this research is to address these challenges by developing an enhanced lane-detection system. To achieve this, the study integrates advanced techniques, including semantic segmentation, edge detection, and deep learning, coupled with multi-sensor data fusion from cameras, LIDAR, and radar. By employing this methodology, the research examines various lane-detection methods and benchmarks the proposed model against existing systems in terms of accuracy, specificity and processing speed. Initial findings demonstrate that the combination of semantic segmentation and multi-sensor fusion improves lane detection in real-time scenarios. The proposed model achieved a lane detection accuracy of 97.8%, a specificity of 99.28%, and an average processing time of 0.0047 seconds per epoch. This study not only addresses the limitations of existing lane detection systems but also offers insights into improving road safety for autonomous vehicles.

KAN-Transformer Model for UltraShort-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on EWMA Data Processing

When using the Transformer model for wind power prediction, the presence of noise in wind power data and the model’s final layer relying solely on a simple linear output reduces the model’s ability to capture nonlinear relationships, leading to a decrease in prediction accuracy. To address these issues, this paper proposes an ultrashort-term wind power prediction model based on exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) data processing and Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN)-Transformer. First, multiple variable features are smoothed using EWMA, which suppresses noise while preserving the original data trends. Then, the EWMA-processed data is input into the Encoder and Decoder modules of the Transformer model to extract features. The output from the Decoder layer is then passed through the KAN layer, built using a cubic B-spline function, to enhance the model’s ability to capture nonlinear relationships, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the Transformer model for wind power. Finally, experimental analysis is conducted, and it shows that the proposed model achieves the highest prediction accuracy, with a mean absolute error of 4.38 MW, a root mean squared error of 7.37 MW, and a coefficient of determination of 98.73%.

Semantic Segmentation Model-Based Boundary Line Recognition Method for Wheat Harvesting

The wheat harvesting boundary line is vital reference information for the path tracking of an autonomously driving combine harvester. However, unfavorable factors, such as a complex light environment, tree shade, weeds, and wheat stubble color interference in the field, make it challenging to identify the wheat harvest boundary line accurately and quickly. Therefore, this paper proposes a harvest boundary line recognition model for wheat harvesting based on the MV3_DeepLabV3+ network framework, which can quickly and accurately complete the identification in complex environments. The model uses the lightweight MobileNetV3_Large as the backbone network and the LeakyReLU activation function to avoid the neural death problem. Depth-separable convolution is introduced into Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling (ASPP) to reduce the complexity of network parameters. The cubic B-spline curve-fitting method extracts the wheat harvesting boundary line. A prototype harvester for wheat harvesting boundary recognition was built, and field tests were conducted. The test results show that the wheat harvest boundary line recognition model proposed in this paper achieves a segmentation accuracy of 98.04% for unharvested wheat regions in complex environments, with an IoU of 95.02%. When the combine harvester travels at 0~1.5 m/s, the normal speed for operation, the average processing time and pixel error for a single image are 0.15 s and 7.3 pixels, respectively. This method could achieve high recognition accuracy and fast recognition speed. This paper provides a practical reference for the autonomous harvesting operation of a combine harvester.

Efficiency and Simulation of Thailand's Chiang Mai University Model for COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Hub (CMU-MVH Model).

Mass vaccination is crucial for achieving herd immunity and controlling pandemics. Simulation models predict vaccination outcomes. This study evaluates efficiency and designs a tailored vaccination plan for Thailand. Data was derived from a COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Hub (MVH) in Chiang Mai, Thailand. It was taken between June 2021 and December 2021. The discreet event simulation model is developed in Arena Simulation Enterprise Suite version 14.0. The operational efficiency of Chiang Mai University Mass Vaccination Hub (CMU-MVH) was 1,073 vaccinations per 8 hours with 38 service staff. The average processing times (APT) were 2.5 minutes for the registration station, 12.2 minutes for the assessment station, 8.3 minutes for vaccination, and 28.2 minutes for observation. With 100% staff availability and staff utilization ranging from 0.5 to 0.7, the CMU-MVH could handle 180 to 230 vaccinees per hour or 1,227 to 1,527 vaccinees per day. Reduced staff availability leads to an increase in average processing time, especially when staff availability is lower or equal to 60%. The CMU-MVH could handle approximately a thousand vaccinations within 8 working hours. This capability could assist policymakers in developing more effective strategies and planning for future mass vaccinations. The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.

CEEMDAN combined wavelet denoising improved the MW cycle slip detection algorithm

In the preprocessing of high-precision navigation and positioning data, the most widely used MW combination cycle slip detection method is greatly affected by pseudorange noise. It has issues such as missing small cycle slips and failing to promptly reset the recursive averaging process after cycle slip detection failure, which leads to subsequent threshold divergence. This paper proposes an improved MW combination cycle slip detection method based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMDAN), permutation entropy, and wavelet denoising, which uses CEEMDAN to decompose the cycle slip signal into a series of intrinsic modal functions (IMFs) and then selects the IMFs that require denoising through the permutation entropy algorithm, and the wavelet denoising technique is combined to eliminate the residual noise further, so that the noise can be removed more accurately. Experimental results show that compared with the original MW algorithm, the proposed improved method can effectively reduce the influence of pseudo-range noise, and reduce the false detection rate of cycle slip from 1.6% and 6–0%. All small period slips can be successfully detected in complex noise environments, avoiding the missed detection of the original MW algorithm and the related threshold divergence problems.

An Automated Clubbed Fingers Detection System Based on YOLOv8 and U-Net: A Tool for Early Prediction of Lung and Cardiovascular Diseases

Background/Objectives: Lung and cardiovascular diseases are leading causes of mortality worldwide, yet early detection remains challenging due to the subtle symptoms. Digital clubbing, characterized by the bulbous enlargement of the fingertips, serves as an early indicator of these diseases. This study aims to develop an automated system for detecting digital clubbing using deep-learning models for real-time monitoring and early intervention. Methods: The proposed system utilizes the YOLOv8 model for object detection and U-Net for image segmentation, integrated with the ESP32-CAM development board to capture and analyze finger images. The severity of digital clubbing is determined using a custom algorithm based on the Lovibond angle theory, categorizing the condition into normal, mild, moderate, and severe. The system was evaluated using 1768 images and achieved cloud-based and real-time processing capabilities. Results: The system demonstrated high accuracy (98.34%) in real-time detection with precision (98.22%), sensitivity (99.48%), and specificity (98.22%). Cloud-based processing achieved slightly lower but robust results, with an accuracy of 96.38%. The average processing time was 0.15 s per image, showcasing its real-time potential. Conclusions: This automated system provides a scalable and cost-effective solution for the early detection of digital clubbing, enabling timely intervention for lung and cardiovascular diseases. Its high accuracy and real-time capabilities make it suitable for both clinical and home-based health monitoring.

Optimizing Cloud Computing Performance by Integrating the Novel PSBR Service Broker Policy and Load Balancing Algorithms

As cloud computing advances, organizations' IT infrastructure and application deployment processes are moving to the cloud because cloud computing provides everything as a service over the Internet. The performance of a cloud-based application is based on proper datacenter selection and workload distribution within the selected datacenter. Service broker policies are used for suitable datacenter selection, and load balancing algorithms(LBA) are applied to distribute workloads. This paper is to evaluate the effect of a proposed service broker policy (PSBR) on the performance of cloud-based applications with LBA. To achieve the objective, the behavior of the TikTok application was modeled using the worldwide users’ statistics on the cloud simulation framework, namely CloudAnalyst. As a result, the average response time and data center processing time are measured. Next, the PSBR provides better results than the existing service proximity-based policy. This paper supports cloud service providers' benefits, from coordination between data center configuration, data center selection, and workload distribution to cloud users' identification of the appropriate procedures for their organization or application. PSBR with Active Monitoring had the best average response time of 75.1 ms, while SPR consistently exhibited higher average times across all algorithms, with the highest being 84.5 ms for Round Robin. Under the PSBR policy, Throttled had the lowest average processing time (4.67), while Round Robin had the highest (5.72). Similarly, under the SPR policy, Throttled maintained its efficiency with the lowest average (4.8), while Round Robin showed the highest (5.79).

Design and implementation of a metagenomic analytical pipeline for respiratory pathogen detection

ObjectiveWe developed an in-house bioinformatics pipeline to improve the detection of respiratory pathogens in metagenomic sequencing data. This pipeline addresses the need for short-time analysis, high accuracy, scalability, and reproducibility in a high-performance computing environment.ResultsWe evaluated our pipeline using ninety synthetic metagenomes designed to simulate nasopharyngeal swab samples. The pipeline successfully identified 177 out of 204 respiratory pathogens present in the compositions, with an average processing time of approximately 4 min per sample (processing 1 million paired-end reads of 150 base pairs). For the estimation of all the 470 taxa included in the compositions, the pipeline demonstrated high accuracy, identifying 420 and achieving a correlation of 0.9 between their actual and predicted relative abundances. Among the identified taxa, 27 were significantly underestimated or overestimated, including only three clinically relevant pathogens. We also validated the pipeline by applying it to a clinical dataset from a study on metagenomic pathogen characterization in patients with acute respiratory infections and successfully identified all pathogens responsible for the diagnosed infections. These findings underscore the pipeline’s effectiveness in pathogen detection and highlight its potential utility in respiratory pathogen surveillance.

Automatic visual recognition, detection and classification of weeds in cotton fields based on machine vision

Crops and weeds are involved in a continuous competition for equal resources, which may result in a potential decrease in crop yields by up to 31% and an increase in the costs of agricultural inputs by up to 22% of cultivation. Weeds further impact crop production, and their detection is crucial for effective crop management. In this research, we targeted common weeds of cotton field, specifically i) Digitaria sanguinalis (L.) Scop, ii) Amaranthus retroflexus L., iii) Acalypha australis, L., iv) Cephalanoplos segetum, and v) Chenopodium album L. Additionally, image processing techniques such as grayscale conversion, binarization, and Gaussian and morphological filters were also utilized. These methods are based on machine vision and facilitate rapid and straightforward weed detection by segmenting, scrutinizing, and comparing input images. The plant height and area were obtained during cotton planting within 32 days and fitted to develop the growth law concerning planting days for achieving the function of distinguishing cotton from weeds. We conducted recognition experiments by dividing images into four quadrants and categorizing weeds as either inter-row or intra-row. Meanwhile, the inter-row planting information was used to identify weeds, and the leaf pixel area and circularity were used as the identification methods for intra-row weeds, which reduced the algorithm's running time and improved real-time performance. The experimental results indicated that the inter-row weed recognition rate was 89.4%, with an average processing time of 102ms. Whereas in the case of intra-row weeds, the recognition rate was measured at 84.6%, and the overall recognition rate for cotton was 85.0%, with a mean time consumption of 437ms. Furthermore, the present research underscores recent advancements such as machine vision and high-resolution imaging, which have significantly improved the accuracy of automated weed identification in cotton fields while acknowledging ongoing challenges and outlining future opportunities. By Integrating state-of-the-art technology with sustainable agricultural practices, implementing an intelligent system offers a viable approach toward efficient and environmentally friendly weed management in modern agriculture.

Gravitational wave luminosity distance-weighted anisotropies

Measurements of the luminosity distance of propagating gravitational waves can provide invaluable information on the geometry and content of our Universe. Due to the clustering of cosmic structures, in realistic situations we need to average the luminosity distance of events coming from patches inside a volume. In this work we evaluate, in a gauge-invariant and fully-relativistic treatment, the impact of cosmological perturbations on such averaging process. We find that clustering, lensing and peculiar velocity effects impact estimates for future detectors such as Einstein Telescope, Cosmic Explorer, the Big Bang Observer and DECIGO. The signal-to-noise ratio of the angular power spectrum of the average luminosity distance over all the redshift bins is 17 in the case of binary black holes detected by Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. We also provide fitting formulas for the corrections to the average luminosity distance due to general relativistic effects.

Evaluation of the Implementation of theMerdeka Curriculum at Vocational High School Using CIPP Model

As per the directive of the head of the ministry of education, culture, research, and technology (number 044/H/KR/2022) regarding educational units implementing Merdeka Curriculum implementation, the Merdeka Curriculum is scheduled to be implemented beginning with the 2022/2023 school year. Researchers employ Stufflebeam's CIPP evaluation approach, which includes context, input, process, and product components, to determine whether the new curriculum has been implemented appropriately and successfully. In Sumbawa, 310 students from vocational schools and 303 teachers participated in this study. The Merdeka Curriculum has been applied well in terms of context, input, process, and outcomes, according to this study, which used survey technique and a quantitative research approach. Researchers discovered that the average context score for instructors was 4.08, the average input score for teachers was 4.03, the average process score for teachers was 3.89, the average output score for teachers was 4.16, and the average student score was 4.00. It was discovered that, aside from that, there were statistically significant values in terms of the context of the teacher (Md = 4.00, n = 303) and the student (Md = 3.56, n = 310), the process of the teacher (Md = 3.86, n = 303) and the student (Md = 4.00, n = 310), the value of U = 38310.000, ρ =.000, r =.000 while the Product of the instructor (Md = 4.29, n = 303) and the pupil (Md = 4.00, n = 310), U = 30985.000, ρ =.000, and r =.000 are obtained. The results of the Mann Withney U-test, however, indicated that the teacher's (Md = 4.00, n = 303) and student's (Md = 4.00, n = 310) inputs were not statistically significant (U = 44775.000, ρ =.307, r =.041). To ensure that teachers and students have the same understanding of context, input, process, and product, it is intended that the Merdeka Curriculum may be implemented more effectively.

Increasing resilience and selection of a strategy for restoring transport networks in extreme natural processes

Aim. The development of an approach to increasing resilience by selecting strategies for restoring transport networks affected by extreme natural processes. Methods. This study evaluates the dynamics of extreme natural processes, specifically exogenous geological processes that can that can disrupt transport networks. It includes as framework for assessing the sustainability and restoration of transport networks under climate risk factors. Strategies for restoring the transport network were formulated. Results. The formulated strategies enable network modeling of transport network topology, which can be represented as an undirected weighted graph with a set of nodes and edges. The proposed model allows determining the most effective strategy for quickly restoring the connectivity of the transport network by determining the optimal sequence of restoration for repairing road sections, considering restoration time. The efficiency of restoring damaged sections of the transport network is expected to decrease as the share of the restored network increases. Therefore, it is crucial to estimate the necessary extend of network restoration to perform the necessary extent of network restoration to support emergency and urgent tasks by RSChS formations in specific areas. Conclusion. The analysis and assessment of alternative solutions for restoring the sustainability of transport networks considers the complexity of tasks under climate risk factors, such as extreme natural processes. In some cases, the RSChS problems do not require complete network restoration, unlike the tasks solved by the transport industry. This work aims to develop a framework for assessing restoration strategies, identifying the features of each of the considered strategies under uncertainty, and increasing operational sustainability. The proposed approach is flexible, allowing decision makers to assess various priorities during a specific natural emergency in a certain area, such as average recovery time, process efficiency, and uncertainty levels, when choosing the most desirable strategy. It is assumed that the average recovery time does not differ significantly among strategies for full network restoration. However, for partial restorations necessary for RSChS tasks, the average restoration time depends on the chosen strategy.

Non-contact measurement of conveyor belt speed based on fast point cloud registration of feature block

Abstract Non-contact, real-time measurement of conveyor belt speed is critical for energy-saving speed regulation and efficient development of coal mine conveyor systems. Existing speed measurement technologies for conveyor systems are often limited by the slippage and wear in contact measurement and complex environmental disturbance. This study introduces three-dimensional point cloud technology into coal flow information detection and innovatively presents a non-contact measurement method of conveyor belt speed based on fast point cloud registration of feature blocks. In the proposed method, a three-dimensional camera is used to capture point cloud data of the dynamically running conveyor belt, and the raw point cloud is preprocessed and segmented into blocks. Then, the C-MANV (curvature and mean angle of normal vectors) features of block point clouds are constructed based on the point cloud neighborhood curvature and the mean angle of neighborhood normal vectors. Finally, an improved block point cloud registration method based on C-MANV features is adopted to achieve the accurate measurement of the dynamic running speed of conveyor belt. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves an average relative error of less than 1.8% in high-speed conveyor belt operation with an average processing time of less than 35 ms, which fulfils the accuracy and real-time requirements for conveyor belt speed detection in coal mines. This study provides an effective technical solution for the speed monitoring of coal mine conveyor systems.

Automated Mass Extraction of Over 680,000 PICOs from Clinical Study Abstracts Using Generative AI: A Proof-of-Concept Study.

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) shows promise in automating key tasks involved in conducting systematic literature reviews (SLRs), including screening, bias assessment and data extraction. This potential automation is increasingly relevant as pharmaceutical developers face challenging requirements for timely and precise SLRs using the population, intervention, comparator and outcome (PICO) framework, such as those under the impending European Union (EU) Health Technology Assessment Regulation 2021/2282 (HTAR). This proof-of-concept study aimed to evaluate the feasibility, accuracy and efficiency of using GenAI for mass extraction of PICOs from PubMed abstracts. Abstracts were retrieved from PubMed using a search string targeting randomised controlled trials. A PubMed clinical study 'specific/narrow' filter was also applied. Retrieved abstracts were processed using the OpenAI Batch application programming interface (API), which allowed parallel processing and interaction with Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4 Omni (GPT-4o) via custom Python scripts. PICO elements were extracted using a zero-shot prompting strategy. Results were stored in CSV files and subsequently imported into a PostgreSQL database. The PubMed search returned 682,667 abstracts. PICOs from all abstracts were extracted in < 3 h, with an average processing time of 200 s per 1000 abstracts. A total of 395,992,770 tokens were processed, with an average of 580 tokens per abstract. The total cost was $3390. On the basis of a random sample of 350 abstracts, human verification confirmed that GPT-4o accurately and comprehensively extracted 342 (98%) of all PICOs, with only outcome elements rarely missed. Using GenAI to extract PICOs from clinical study abstracts could fundamentally transform the way SLRs are conducted. By enabling pharmaceutical developers to anticipate PICO requirements, this approach allows for proactive preparation for the EU HTAR process, or other health technology assessments (HTAs), streamlining efficiency and reducing the burden of meeting these requirements.

Intelligent Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Hypersonic Vehicle Based on Sparse Associative Structure Model

The Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) has become a focal point in military competitions among nations. Predicting the real-time trajectory of an HGV is of significant importance for aerospace defense interception and assessing enemy combat intentions. Existing prediction methods are limited by the need for large data samples and poor general applicability. To address these challenges, this paper presents a novel trajectory forecasting approach based on the Sparse Association Structure Model (SASM). The SASM can uncover the relationship among known data, transfer associative relationships to unknown data, and improve the generalization of the model. Firstly, a trajectory database is established for different maneuvering modes based on the six-degree-of-freedom motion equations and models of attack and bank angles of the HGV. Subsequently, three trajectory parameters are selected as prediction variables according to the maneuvering characteristics of the HGV. A parameters prediction model based on the SASM is then constructed to predict trajectory parameters. The SASM model demonstrates high accuracy and generalization in forecasting the trajectories of three different HGV types. Experimental results show a 50.35% reduction in prediction error and a 48.7% decrease in average processing time compared to the LSTM model, highlighting the effectiveness of the proposed method for real-time trajectory forecasting.

An In-Depth Look at Rising Temperatures: Forecasting with Advanced Time Series Models in Major US Regions

With growing concerns over climate change, accurately predicting temperature trends is crucial for informed decision-making and policy development. In this study, we perform a comprehensive comparative analysis of four advanced time series forecasting models—Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Gaussian Processes (GP)—to assess changes in minimum and maximum temperatures across four key regions in the United States. Our analysis includes hyperparameter optimization for each model to ensure peak performance. The results indicate that the MLP model outperforms the other models in terms of accuracy for temperature forecasting. Utilizing this best-performing model, we conduct temperature projections to evaluate the hypothesis that the rates of change in temperatures are greater than zero. Our findings confirm a positive rate of change in both maximum and minimum temperatures, suggesting a consistent upward trend over time. This research underscores the critical importance of refining time series forecasting models to address the challenges posed by climate change and supporting the development of effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of rising temperatures. The insights gained from this work emphasize the need for continuous advancement in predictive modeling techniques to better understand and respond to the dynamics of climate change.