Process-based Model Research Articles

Generating interpretable rainfall-runoff models automatically from data

A sudden surge of data has created new challenges in water management, spanning quality control, assimilation, and analysis. Few approaches are available to integrate growing volumes of data into interpretable results. Process-based hydrologic models have not been designed to consume large amounts of data. Alternatively, new machine learning tools can automate data analysis and forecasting, but their lack of interpretability and reliance on very large data sets limits the discovery of insights and may impact trust. To address this gap, we present a new approach, which seeks to strike a middle ground between process-, and data-based modeling. The contribution of this work is an automated and scalable methodology that discovers differential equations and latent state estimations within hydrologic systems using only rainfall and runoff measurements. We show how this enables automated tools to learn interpretable models of 6 to 18 parameters solely from measurements. We apply this approach to nearly 400 stream gaging sites across the US, showing how complex catchment dynamics can be reconstructed solely from rainfall and runoff measurements. We also show how the approach discovers surrogate models that can replicate the dynamics of a much more complex process-based model, but at a fraction of the computational complexity. We discuss how the resulting representation of watershed dynamics provides insight and computational efficiency to enable automated predictions across large sensor networks.

Deciphering the transfer of hydroclimate signals to tree-ring δ18O using a proxy system model in East Asia's Meiyu region

The stable oxygen isotope ratios of whole tree-ring α-cellulose (δ18OWR) have been interpreted as an indicator of early summer hydroclimate in the Meiyu region of East Asia. However, the underlying physical mechanism often remains unclear. Here we provide a mechanistic understanding through intra-annual tree-ring oxygen isotope analysis and process-based δ18OWR modelling over the period 1979–2006. The selected tree species for analysis is Pinus taiwanensis, whose δ18OWR exhibit the strongest linear relationship with relative humidity (RH) in June. The results indicated that the June RH signal is predominantly contained in tree-ring earlywood rather than latewood. The strong response of δ18OWR to June RH is not due to the legacy effect. Using the proxy system model (PSM) of δ18OWR, we obtained a modeled δ18OWR time series that is significantly positively correlated with the measured δ18OWR time series. The modeled and measured δ18OWR series show similar relationships with monthly RH. Sensitivity experiments with PSM revealed that the June RH signal is originated from the oxygen isotopes of source water and leaf water. Rapid cellulose formation in June plays a role in enhancing the June RH signal. Our study demonstrates how δ18OWR record early summer hydroclimate signals from a process perspective, and that the PSM is effective in modelling the interannual δ18OWR variability in the Meiyu region.

Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California

Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (−2.9 to −5.1 Bm3) and Monterey counties (−6.5 to −8.7 Bm3), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.

A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes

Accurate estimates of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land-use change (ELUC) and of the natural terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are crucial to precisely know how much CO2 can still be emitted to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. In current carbon budgets, ELUC and SLAND stem from two model families that differ in how CO2 fluxes are attributed to environmental and land-use changes, making their estimates conceptually inconsistent. Here we provide consistent estimates of ELUC and SLAND by integrating environmental effects on land carbon into a spatially explicit bookkeeping model. We find that state-of-the-art process-based models overestimate SLAND by 23% (min: 8%, max: 33%) in 2012–2021, as they include hypothetical sinks that in reality are lost through historical ecosystem degradation. Additionally, ELUC increases by 14% (8%, 23%) in 2012–2021 when considering environmental effects. Altogether, we find a weaker net land sink, which makes reaching carbon neutrality even more ambitious. These results highlight that a consistent estimation of terrestrial carbon fluxes is essential to assess the progress of net-zero emission commitments and the remaining carbon budget.

Vulnerability of barley yields in Québec.

Climate projections across Québec indicate increased water stress and recurrent vulnerability of cropping systems. In recent years, reports of droughts and water stress have been recorded across the province. Many parts of Québec have experienced droughts in the past few years, which have had uninvestigated impacts on crops. These droughts have been described as some of the most significant in the last 80 years. On the positive side, climate change is likely to trigger shorter winters and therefore longer growing seasons for several crops. However, for crops like maple syrup, the regions suitable for their cultivation will shift northwards. Despite these projections, studies monitoring the susceptibility of barley to environmental changes, climate variability, and adaptive capacity across Québec are still limited. This study aims to provide a provincial-scale portrait of vulnerability of barley in Québec based on historical growing season precipitation, barley yield, and socioeconomic data (literacy and poverty rates) using a composite statistical model. Growing season precipitation data were downloaded from Ouranos. Barley yield data were collected from the Institut de la Statistique du Québec, and the socio-demographic data were collected from the Advisory Council of Poverty and the Institut de la Statistique du Québec. A vulnerability index with sub-indices (sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity) is deployed. It is hypothesised that (1) vulnerability is inversely associated with adaptive capacity, and (2) the peripheral regions of Québec are more vulnerable and less adaptive to climate stressors. Initial results show that when the vulnerability index for barley is more prominent, the associated index of adaptive capacity is relatively lower. A significant gradient between the peripheral and southern regions of Québec is observed, with vulnerability lowest around Montreal/Laval and gradually increasing towards the peripheral regions. A better understanding of vulnerability warrants a change in approach from focusing solely on climate-related variables to integrating socioeconomic proxies. The challenge, however, has been how to introduce these socioeconomic proxies into empirical and process-based crop models.

Modeling for sustainable groundwater management: Interdependence and potential complementarity of process-based, data-driven and system dynamics approaches

Groundwater systems are vast natural water reservoirs used to support human water demands and ecosystem services. Various modeling approaches have been developed to help manage these complex highly-dynamic systems. This paper discusses the strengths and limitations of three modeling approaches, namely: process-based, data-driven and system dynamics modeling. For demonstration purposes, the three modeling approaches are applied to the Konya Closed Basin, a large agricultural region with semi-dry climate located in central Turkey. Process-based modeling is grounded in the theory-based representation of the governing processes but is somewhat limited by the computational effort and the difficulty of defining the required input parameters that characterize the heterogeneous aquifer system. Process-based models are shown to be powerful tools for resource management purposes provided climatic and water demand scenarios are accurately defined. Data-driven models are efficient tools for the management of groundwater resources but are highly dependent on the availability of large training data sets encompassing the spectrum of possible system responses. The high efficiency of surrogate modeling approaches makes them ideal tools for incorporation into applications such as real-time decision support systems and digital twin platforms. System dynamics modeling examines the groundwater exploitation problem within a socio-economic context that involves multiple stakeholders and their decision making. It combines groundwater flow models with socio-economics and endogenous decision rules to conduct scenario analysis and support policy development. The analyses and model demonstrations presented in this paper underscore the interconnectedness and complementarity of these three modeling approaches and the need for more integrated use of these modeling approaches for enhanced multi-sectoral management of groundwater systems.

Greenhouse gas, water, and economic implications of permeable pavements: Quantification for pilot sponge cities in China

Climate change has exacerbated the occurrence of extreme storms, resulting in urban flooding. However, rainwater is a potential source of water for various end uses of municipal water. In this context, permeable pavements are promising for mitigating floods and alleviating water stress in cities. Herein, a process-based life-cycle inventory modeling approach was used to quantify the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) and water footprints of different road pavements in 28 pilot sponge cities in China. Three asphalt pavements were considered in this study: permeable-surface, permeable-base, and conventional nonpermeable pavements. Moreover, life-cycle cost analyses were performed to reveal the cost-effectiveness of these pavements. Results showed that permeable-base pavements exhibited the highest levelized GHG emissions (5.9 kg CO2e/m2/yr), followed by nonpermeable (5.5 kg CO2e/m2/yr) and permeable-surface pavements (3.8 kg CO2e/m2/yr). In terms of levelized water footprint, permeable-base and permeable-surface pavements enabled water savings (433.8 and 304.1 kg/m2/yr, respectively), while nonpermeable pavements consumed 30.6 kg/m2/yr of water. The levelized life-cycle costs of permeable-surface, permeable-base, and nonpermeable pavements were 32.8, 35.4, and 40.5 yuan/m2/yr, respectively. With regard to transitioning from nonpermeable to permeable pavements in urban road construction, Chongqing and Shenzhen presented favorable potential for GHG mitigation (22 and 26 kt CO2e/yr, respectively) and water savings (196 and 187 Mt/yr, respectively). Contrarily, Hebi, Yuxi, Sanya, Qianan, Chizhou, and Xining were not cost-effective in terms of GHG emission reduction. Moreover, in this study, GHG–water–cost tradeoffs were identified among different pavements, highlighting directions for unlocking the green benefits of installing permeable asphalt pavements in China.

Predicting the effect of climate change and management on net carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystems of the European part of Russia with the complex of models

The objectives of sustainable development require the ability to estimate potential changes in net carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems (including changes in biomass, mortmass, and soil organic matter) under possible climate change and different forest management strategies. Such estimates require consideration of different ecosystem components and processes. To achieve this goal, we have integrated several ecological models (dynamic stand model FORRUS-S, soil organic matter model Romul_Hum, statistical climate generator SCLISS and process-based forest ecosystem model EFIMOD3) to simulate the ecosystem dynamics at the regional level in several study areas within the forest zone of the European part of Russia. The simulation results reflected both the direct effects of climate change and forest management actions on ecosystem carbon pools, and the indirect effects through changes in species composition. The simulation experiments were spatially detailed at the level of individual forest management units, thereby revealing the influence of habitat conditions on the rate of carbon sequestration under the influence of environmental factors. We found that net carbon sequestration in all major ecosystem pools was mostly positive, ranging between 0 and 1.45 t ha year−1 depending on study area and simulation scenario. Higher accumulation was typically observed in medium-rich and rich habitat types with mesic moistening. In the long term, the effect of climate change was found to be comparable to the effect of management interventions.

Representative residual transport pathways in a mixed-energy open tidal system

The North Frisian Wadden Sea (NFWS), an open tidal basin within the UNESCO World Heritage Wadden Sea, is characterized by its barrier systems, tidal inlets, intertidal flats, and estuaries. Unlike its East Frisian and Dutch counterparts, the NFWS is underexplored in terms of residual sediment and flow transport pathways—knowledge crucial for coastal conservation and nature-based protection. These pathways are a product of complex interplay between tides, winds and waves that together shape the morphology of the NFWS. This study investigates these interactions using a high-resolution process-based model to perform a representative period simulation derived through a novel unfiltered-reduction technique. Our results reveal an anticlockwise residual flow circulation in the back-barrier region, which was not discernible in the residual sediment pathways. Waves primarily dictated sediment transport over intertidal flats, showing high variability in transport direction under energetic conditions. The coastline orientation and fetch size favored southward wavedriven sediment transport, opposing the northward residual flow transport driven by tidal propagation. A dynamic residual divergence pattern in the nearshore region of the barrier islands is also revealed for both sediment and flow, which moves alongshore during energetic events. The discussion compares these patterns and their implications with earlier local measurements, conceptual pathways, and different systems globally to provide a comprehensive overview of the transport dynamics in the NFWS.

Using Physics-Encoded GeoAI to Improve the Physical Realism of Deep Learning′s Rainfall-Runoff Responses under Climate Change

Recent research has shown that deep learning (DL) faces physical realism challenges in predicting runoff responses under climate change, mainly due to DL’s data dependence and lack of process understanding. In this study, a physics-encoded neural network model (dNN) was developed to adress this. dNN enables a fully process-based way to training and prediction by encoding process-based modeling knowledge into the DL architecture, including the water balance principle and causal linkages of catchment hydrological processes. To examine whether dNN can produce reliable runoff responses under warming scenarios, we first conducted regional training for dNN on daily runoff in 29 catchment in California. Two process-based models, EXP-HYDRO and HBV, were then developed as benchmarks. Both dNN and a pure data-driven LSTM were forced under warming scenarios, and the monthly hydrographs and total runoff ratios metrics were evaluated relative to the benchmarks. The results demonstrated: (1) For monthly hydrographs, dNN exhibited advantages in capturing cold-season runoff increase and warm-season recession than LSTM, effectively predicting the changes and trends in monthly runoff under warming scenarios; (2) For total runoff ratios, dNN predicted fewer catchments with increased runoff, indicating it can better maintain the total water budget under warming scenarios; (3) Through the synergy with physics, dNN was able to reasonably infer unobserved snowpack dynamics under warming scenarios. These results highlight the credibility and necessity of considering physics for DL in predicting runoff responses under climate change. Overall, this study provides a promising solution for considering physics in DL to further improve the process understanding in changing environments.

Seasonal timing of fluorescence and photosynthetic yields at needle and canopy scales in evergreen needleleaf forests.

The seasonal timing and magnitude of photosynthesis in evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs) has major implications for the carbon cycle and is increasingly sensitive to changing climate. Earlier spring photosynthesis can increase carbon uptake over the growing season or cause early water reserve depletion that leads to premature cessation and increased carbon loss. Determining the start and the end of the growing season in ENFs is challenging due to a lack of field measurements and difficulty in interpreting satellite data, which are impacted by snow and cloud cover, and the pervasive "greenness" of these systems. We combine continuous needle-scale chlorophyll fluorescence measurements with tower-based remote sensing and gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates at three ENF sites across a latitudinal gradient (Colorado, Saskatchewan, Alaska) to link physiological changes with remote sensing signals during transition seasons. We derive a theoretical framework for observations of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and solar intensity-normalized SIF (SIFrelative) under snow-covered conditions, and show decreased sensitivity compared with reflectance data (~20% reduction in measured SIF vs. ~60% reduction in near-infrared vegetation index [NIRv] under 50% snow cover). Needle-scale fluorescence and photochemistry strongly correlated (r2 = 0.74 in Colorado, 0.70 in Alaska) and showed good agreement on the timing and magnitude of seasonal transitions. We demonstrate that this can be scaled to the site level with tower-based estimates of LUEP and SIFrelative which were well correlated across all sites (r2 = 0.70 in Colorado, 0.53 in Saskatchewan, 0.49 in Alaska). These independent, temporally continuous datasets confirm an increase in physiological activity prior to snowmelt across all three evergreen forests. This suggests that data-driven and process-based carbon cycle models which assume negligible physiological activity prior to snowmelt are inherently flawed, and underscores the utility of SIF data for tracking phenological events. Our research probes the spectral biology of evergreen forests and highlights spectral methods that can be applied in other ecosystems.

Warming-Induced Vegetation Greening May Aggravate Soil Mercury Levels Worldwide.

Mercury, a neurotoxic substance, circulates globally, significantly stored in soils through atmospheric deposition and plant decay. Despite being deposited, mercury can be remobilized and released into the atmosphere and water, enhancing its global cycle. Recent research suggests that climate warming may amplify the remobilization of soil mercury, facilitating its incorporation into food webs that humans exploit. However, the potential geospatial feedback of soil mercury levels in response to warming remains unclear. By leveraging up-to-date soil measurements and observation-driven models, we determined the amount of mercury stored in global 0-100 cm soils to be 4.3 Tg (interquartile range: 2.5-6.3 Tg). Furthermore, our analysis indicates that warming likely aggravates global soil mercury levels, particularly in many temperate areas in East Asia, North Europe, and North America (>20 ng g-1 increase by 2100) due to warming-induced vegetation greening. Critically, observation-driven models raise the possibility that implementing ambitious mercury-emission-control schemes alone may be insufficient to counterbalance the positive feedback of soil mercury concentration, while process-based biogeochemical modeling demonstrates consistent patterns that reinforce this concern. These findings hold broad implications; for example, such feedback may catalyze mercury remobilization in land-ocean continuums and exacerbate human risks, stressing the necessity for continued reductions in greenhouse gas and mercury emissions.

Simulating within-field spatial and temporal corn yield response to nitrogen with APSIM model

ContextProcess-based crop growth models can explain soil and crop dynamics that influence the optimal N rate for crop production. Currently, there is a lack of understanding regarding the accuracy of process-based models for site-specific zones within fields, as well as the key factors that need to be considered when calibrating these models for zone-specific economic optimum N rate (EONR).ObjectiveWe calibrated the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model in contrasting zones within fields, quantified the model performance, and used the calibrated model to develop long-term corn yield response to N to assess the temporal variability between zones and sites to assist decision making.MethodsWe conducted four N rate experiments (2 fields × 2 zones within a field) over two years in southeast Nebraska. Experimental data were used to calibrate and test the APSIM model. APSIM simulated corn yield response to N for each zone and site was obtained by running numerous iterations of the calibrated model at different N rates. Observed and simulated corn yield response to N rate were analyzed with statistical models to estimate the EONR.Results and conclusionsThe APSIM model predicted corn yield over 11 historical years with a relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 12% and yield at EONR in the N studies with RRMSE of 8.8%. The simulated EONR was lower than the observed EONR across sites, years, and zones with greater error than yield. The simulated yield increase with N fertilization was under-estimated in fine textured soils and over-estimated in medium textured soils. Long-term corn yield response to N showed that temporal variation in simulated EONR was greater than spatial variation. Long-term EONR and yield at EONR increased with increasing rainfall, while yield at zero N was greatest in normal years. Temporal variation was driven primarily by year-to-year variation in N loss (CV of 67% ± 9.5). Soil texture, hydrological properties, water table, and tile drainage were key variables for accurate site-specific model calibration. Improvements in simulating site-specific EONR may be realized by including in-situ or remotely sensed data for better estimation of N dynamics. We concluded that APSIM can provide valuable insights into systems dynamics in this region, but it can’t provide precise N-rate estimates. Our study contributes to understanding of the within-field variability using simulation modeling.

Environmental determinants of aerobic methane oxidation in a tropical river network

Aerobic methane oxidation (MOX) significantly reduces methane (CH4) emissions from inland water bodies and is, therefore, an important determinant of global CH4 budget. Yet, the magnitude and controls of MOX rates in rivers – a quantitatively significant natural source of atmospheric CH4 – are poorly constrained. Here, we conducted a series of incubation experiments to understand the magnitude and environmental controls of MOX rates in tropical fluvial systems. We observed a large variability in MOX rate (0.03 - 3.45 μmol l-1d-1) shaped by a suit of environmental variables. Accordingly, we developed an empirical model for MOX that incorporate key environmental drivers, including temperature, CH4, total phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen (O2) concentrations, based on the results of our incubation experiments. We show that temperature dependency of MOX (activation energy: 0.66 ± 0.18 eV) is lower than that of sediment methanogenesis (0.71 ± 0.21 eV) in the studied tropical fluvial network. Furthermore, we observed a non-linear relationship between O2 concentration and MOX, with the highest MOX rate occuring ∼135 μmol O2l-1, above or below this “optimal O2” concentration, MOX rate shows a gradual decline. Together, our results suggest that the relatively lower temperature response of MOX compared to methanogenesis along with the projected decrease of O2 concentration due to organic pollution may cause elevated CH4 emission from tropical southeast Asian rivers. Since estimation of CH4 oxidation is often neglected in routine CH4 monitoring programs, the model developed here may help to integrate MOX rate into process-based models for fluvial CH4 budget.

Modeling platform to assess the effectiveness of single and integrated Ixodes scapularis tick control methods

BackgroundLyme disease continues to expand in Canada and the USA and no single intervention is likely to curb the epidemic.MethodsWe propose a platform to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of a subset of Ixodes scapularis tick management approaches. The platform allows us to assess the impact of different control treatments, conducted either individually (single interventions) or in combination (combined efforts), with varying timings and durations. Interventions include three low environmental toxicity measures in differing combinations, namely reductions in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, broadcast area-application of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, and fipronil-based rodent-targeted bait boxes. To assess the impact of these control efforts, we calibrated a process-based mathematical model to data collected from residential properties in the town of Redding, southwestern Connecticut, where an integrated tick management program to reduce I.xodes scapularis nymphs was conducted from 2013 through 2016. We estimated parameters mechanistically for each of the three treatments, simulated multiple combinations and timings of interventions, and computed the resulting percent reduction of the nymphal peak and of the area under the phenology curve.ResultsSimulation outputs suggest that the three-treatment combination and the bait boxes–deer reduction combination had the overall highest impacts on suppressing I. scapularis nymphs. All (single or combined) interventions were more efficacious when implemented for a higher number of years. When implemented for at least 4 years, most interventions (except the single application of the entomopathogenic fungus) were predicted to strongly reduce the nymphal peak compared with the no intervention scenario. Finally, we determined the optimal period to apply the entomopathogenic fungus in residential yards, depending on the number of applications.ConclusionsComputer simulation is a powerful tool to identify the optimal deployment of individual and combined tick management approaches, which can synergistically contribute to short-to-long-term, costeffective, and sustainable control of tick-borne diseases in integrated tick management (ITM) interventions.Graphical

Algorithm for estimating cultivar-specific parameters in crop models for newer crop cultivars

Model parameters in mechanistic process-based crop models are broadly classified into general parameters (environmental, management, and parameters related to soil processes), species-specific parameters, and cultivar-dependent parameters. While general and species-specific parameters typically remain unchanged, identifying cultivar-dependent parameters is crucial during calibration. With the continuous development of new cultivars, updating cultivar-specific parameters in crop models is necessary. However, gathering data on the behavior of these newer cultivars and calibrating the model to accommodate them is challenging. Currently, there is no standard approach for determining cultivar-specific parameters in crop models due to the difficulty of identifying variations in the growth and development process in newer cultivars, as well as the variations in the model structure, correlations between sub-model components and between different parameters in the crop models. The present study develops a standard methodology for determining cultivar-dependent parameters based on experiments and incorporating them into process-based crop growth models. The developed methodology is demonstrated using the cotton crop and the GOSSYM, a mechanistic process-based cotton crop simulation model. Experiments are conducted on 40 major cotton cultivars grown in the USA to quantify their growth and development under the same environmental and management conditions. Cultivar-dependent parameters are derived and integrated into the GOSSYM model based on the experimental data. By establishing a standardized methodology and demonstrating its application in the context of cotton and the GOSSYM model, this study provides practical guidance for incorporating cultivar-dependent parameters into crop simulation models. Researchers and agronomists can effectively utilize this methodology to integrate new cultivars into their crop models.

Levelized Cost and Carbon Intensity of Solar Hydrogen Production from Water Electrolysis Using a Scalable and Intrinsically Safe Photocatalytic Z-Scheme Raceway System

The realization of an environmentally sustainable and widely-adopted hydrogen economy may require lowering hydrogen production costs of production pathways with ultra-low greenhouse gas emissions to $1/kg H2. The allocation of new or existing renewable electricity generation solely to hydrogen production remains contentious due to disputes regarding emissions accounting. Photoelectrochemical (PEC) hydrogen production technologies offer a unique solution, as hydrogen is produced directly from solar energy and water, without the need for electricity generation. However, cost projections for past photoelectrochemical designs have suggested that they are not cost competitive compared to conventional electrolysis systems manufactured at scale. Herein, we offer the first illustrative benchmark of cost and carbon intensity of hydrogen produced in a Type 2 Z-scheme photocatalytic reactor design that employs suspended semiconducting nanoparticles organized in two stacked baggies in a raceway design.To explore the near-term and future cost projection for hydrogen production via Type 2 photocatalytic Z-scheme raceways, the authors developed a bottom-up total installed capital cost model. This project cost model incorporates: 1) raceway reactor cost, derived from a Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DFMA) process-based cost model, 2) mechanical balance of plant, including process equipment, piping, valves, and instrumentation, derived from equipment quotes, scaling, database values, and Aspen estimates; 3) electrical balance of plant, including wiring, derived from time and material cost correlations; 4) Site Preparation, focused on green field installation; and 5) Construction Overhead, including engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) costs and project contingency. The capital cost model is fed into a Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) discounted cash flow model that accounts for electricity and water consumption, in addition to other operating costs, including labor, maintenance, and raceway replacements.A hybrid life-cycle approach was used to develop an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions from all materials and energy flows associated with the facility life cycle. These flows are converted to emissions based on specific emission factors, or by using physical units-based input–output LCA models associated with the broader economic impacts of fuel and materials production, use, and end use.Estimates for levelized cost of hydrogen suggest that a 50 metric ton H2 per day (MTD) raceway plant can approach $2.50/kg H2 at an 8% solar-to-hydrogen efficiency with further cost improvements possible through increased performance and larger plant scales. Carbon intensity is estimated to be well under clean hydrogen targets for global warming potential of <2-4 kg CO2e/kg H2 produced. The results suggest a highly competitive and scalable technology, that justifies further experimental validation and prototyping in the field. Figure 1

Simulation of Flow and Salinity in a Large Seasonally Managed Wetland Complex

Seasonally managed wetlands in the San Joaquin River (SJR) watershed in California provide important benefits to wildlife and humans but are threatened through anthropogenic activity. Wetlands in the SJR are subject to salinity regulation, which poses challenges for wetland management. Salinity management in the SJR basin is supported by a process-based model, the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF). Wetlands are simulated with a “bathtub” analog where water levels are assumed to be the same over one model compartment and the storage volume depends on depth. The complexity and extent of hydrological features pose challenges for input data acquisition. Two approaches to estimating inflow and pond depth and determining water sources were assessed. Approach 1 used mostly monitored data, while Approach 2 used wetland manager knowledge. Approach 2 predicted outflow and salinity better than Approach 1, and an important benefit was the simulation of water reuse within the wetland complex, which was previously not implemented. Approach 1 is generally suited for estimating pond depth when a model compartment represents one wetland, while Approach 2 is suited for wetlands with large spatial extent, many hydrological features, and managed flows. The improved model will support wetland management.

Net evaporation-induced mangrove area loss across low-lying Caribbean islands

Abstract Although mangroves provide many beneficial ecosystem services, such as blue carbon storage and coastal protection, they are currently under threat due to changes in climate conditions, such as prolonged drought exposure. Under drought conditions, evaporation exceeds precipitation and high soil salinities can lead to stunted growth and die-back. To quantify this interplay, we developed a database for low-lying and uninhabited mangrove islands in the Caribbean under various evaporation and precipitation regimes. We extracted physical and biological information from each island using remote sensing techniques and coupled it with a process-based model. We used this database to develop a model that explains both the spatial variability in vegetated area across the Caribbean—as a function of rates of evaporation and precipitation—and porewater salinity concentration and dispersion from island edge towards the interior of mangrove islands. We then used this validated model to predict mangrove area loss associated with increases in evaporation to precipitation rates by 2100 for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Less wealthy Caribbean regions such as Belize, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela are disproportionally affected, with mangrove area losses ranging from 3%–7% for SSP 2.6 and 13%–21% for SSP 7.0. Furthermore, foregone carbon sequestration in lost biomass under SSP 4.5 and 7.0 scenarios could compromise the ability of low-lying Caribbean mangrove islands to vertically adjust to sea level rise.

Transfer entropy on collective motion with undeclared loose leader–follower (LLF) structure

During an emergency or evacuation, individuals focus on the movement of their neighbors and follow those in sight, even without social affiliation, forming the undeclared Loose Leader-Follower (LLF) group, rather than the usual assumption of following certain rules in most of evacuation models. Inspired by the real-life experience and experimental data, the study develops a novel stochastic process-based evacuation model, integrated the LLF structure in collective motion to clarify the mechanism underlying individual interaction and refine the walking process according to attainable information. Transfer entropy (TE), a model-free measure of the direction of information flow, is used to detect the role of the individuals in the LLF structure from the time-series reconstructed motion information (e.g., the walking coordinate series). To reduce the error of the role detection, according to the 3σ principle for TE values, the detection threshold is decided based on the surrogate walking data. For simulation of their motion decision in the LLF structure, the TE is integrated into the walking behavior mode (TE-POMDP) using the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), that produces their motion behavior under the typical attained information condition. The results show that the TE-POMDP can provide more realistic trajectories. Additionally, we find that a ‘Delta-like’ formation of leading group distribution was presented and remained stable in the procession after a short period of confusion in early stage.