Problem Of Inflation Research Articles

The Inflation as a Socio-economic Phenomenon: the Modern Aspects and Trends

This article is devoted to the actual problem of overcoming inflation and analyzing anti-inflationary solutions at the state level. The purpose of the article is to study inflation as a socio-economic process, including methods to reduce it. Achieving this goal involves the following tasks: to review the statistics on the inflation rate in the Russian Federation today; to analyze the situations in which the economy is undergoing global changes; to analyze the anti-inflationary policy of the state, as well as to summarize the conclusions based on the results of the work. The study used deduction and induction, comparative analysis, including analogy and generalization. The perspective of the study is to solve the problem of inflation, since its consequences in the economy and society are very multifaceted and diverse. On the one hand, in small doses, inflation gives a head start to price growth and profit margins, becoming the reason for some recovery of the economy. But with the complication of the situation, inflation hinders reproduction, and also heats up tension in society. Only the state itself can fight the consequences of inflation, no business alone is able to defend its existence under such conditions. This is a macroeconomic task of the state, which is solved by introducing an anti—inflationary policy in the country, i.e. anti-inflationary policy is measures for state regulation of the economy.

Sprawiedliwość w sądowym prawie egzekucyjnym. Uwagi na tle modelu decyzyjnego procesu stosowania prawa

In the study, which is of a scientific and research nature, the following thesis is adopted: Justice is served in the process of law application but it materializes only at the moment of judgment execution. The article is aimed at answering the question about the understanding of justice in judicial enforcement proceedings (the last stage of the law application process). The subject has not been deeply discussed in the theory of law and, as a result, I believe it is essential to enquire whether the execution of judgment is still an element of justice, while it is a general truth that justice has already been served in the court (court judgment). The thesis presented is corroborated by the European Court of Human Rights decisions, as well as by the Polish Supreme Court case law. Similar conclusions find justification in the European acts of law. Debt repayment is not only a Polish problem, but a problem of many European countries. Certainly, in times of economic crisis and the worldwide problems of inflation, pandemic and wartime, it is more difficult to repay debts, but those simply do not disappear and enforcement is a solution reached for in search of justice.

How pedigree errors affect genetic evaluations and validation statistics

Pedigrees used in genetic evaluations contain errors. Because of such errors, assumptions regarding the relatedness among individuals in genetic evaluation models are wrong. Consequences of that have been investigated in earlier studies focusing on models that did not account for genomic information yet. The objective of this work was to investigate the effects of pedigree errors on the results from genetic evaluations using the single-step model, and the effect of such effects on results from validation studies with forward prediction. We used a real pedigree (n = 361,980) and real genotypes (n = 25,950) of Fleckvieh cattle, sampled in a way to provide a good consistency between pedigree and genomic relationships. Given the real pedigree and genotypes, true breeding values (TBV) were simulated to have a covariance structure equal to the matrix H assumed in a single-step model. Based on TBV, phenotypes were simulated with a heritability of 0.25. Genetic evaluations were conducted with a conventional animal model (i.e., without genomic information) and a single-step animal model under scenarios using either the correct pedigree or a pedigree containing 5%, 10%, or 20% of wrong records. Wrong records were simulated by randomly assigning wrong sires to nongenotyped females. The increasing rates of pedigree errors led to decreasing correlations between TBV and EBV and lower standard deviations of predictions. Less variation was observed because pedigree errors operate actually as a random exchange of daughters among bulls, making them look more similar to each other than they actually are. This occurs of course only when animals have progeny. Therefore, this decreased variation was more pronounced for progeny tested bulls than for young selection candidates. In a forward prediction validation scenario, the stronger decrease in variation when animals get progeny caused an apparent inflation of early predictions. This phenomenon may contribute to the usually observed problem of inflation of early predictions observed in validation studies.

Impact of Fiscal Policy Measures on the Control of Inflation in Nigeria

Fiscal policy is one of the public sector tools used in the pursuit of these macro-economic goals. Fiscal policy could then be said to be an embodiment of all government plans aimed at achieving desired macro-economic goals, without directly altering the level of money supply. Nigeria, like most other Third World Countries, is committed to the achievement of a range of economic objectives such as high level of employment, rapid economic development, equitable distributions as well as reasonable price stability. However, the problem of rising prices has been particularly acute in recent years and has not responded to monetary and fiscal measures. In particular, it is becoming increasingly evident that we cannot count on maintaining the desirable level of economic development and simultaneously achieving reasonable price stability (Tomori, S., 1982). It is in realization of this fact that emphasis is on highlighting the various fiscal policy measures with respect to the problem of inflation. Furthermore, a sound study of the effects of various fiscal policy measures on the control of inflation is necessary in the bid to determine the appropriate policy mix required for dealing with the problem.

Differences in the Effect of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Inflation in Indonesia During COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Tensions

The dynamics of the global economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe are marked by inflation problems experienced by countries around the world. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of monetary policy and fiscal policy on inflation during the two crisis periods in Indonesia. This study uses secondary data sourced from the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Trade. The data used is a monthly time series from January 2019 to April 2023. The analysis methods used in this study are multiple linear regression and independent samples t-test. The results of this study indicate that BI interest rates, government expenditure, and taxes have a significant effect on inflation. Meanwhile, the money supply (M2) has no significant effect on inflation. There is a significant difference between money supply (M2) and inflation in the COVID-19 period and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, there is no significant difference between BI interest rates, government expenditure, and taxes during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Traffic Accident Risk Prediction via Multi-View Multi-Task Spatio-Temporal Networks

Abnormal traffic incidents such as traffic accidents have become a significant health and development threat with the rapid urbanization of many countries. The challenges of accurate traffic risk forecasting are three-fold. First, traffic accident data in some areas of a city is sparse, especially for a fine-grained prediction, which may cause the zero inflation problem during model training. Second, the spatio-temporal correlations of the traffic accidents are rather complex and non-linear, which is difficult to capture by existing shallow models like regression. Third, the occurrence of traffic accidents can be significantly affected by various context features including weather, POI and road network features. To address the above challenges, this paper proposes a Multi-View Multi-Task Spatio-Temporal Networks (MVMT-STN) model to forecast fine- and coarse-grained traffic accident risks of a city simultaneously. Specifically, to address the data sparsity issue in a fine-grained prediction, we adopt a multi-task learning framework to jointly forecast both fine- and coarse-grained traffic accident risks by considering their spatial associations. We conduct extensive experiments over two large real traffic accident datasets. The results show that MVMT-STN improves the performance of traffic accident risk prediction in both fine- and coarse-grained prediction by a large margin compared with existing state-of-the-art.

The Impact and Issues of Portfolio Rebalancing Channel in Quantitative Easing During COVID-19

As the largest black swan event in recent years, the COVID-19 has affected the development of the global economy. As the world's largest economy and one of the countries with the most severe epidemic, the United States has suffered a heavy economic blow. To promote economic recovery, the Federal Reserve has adopted a series of loose policies. This includes the most typical quantitative easing policy. Through literature research, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the portfolio rebalancing channel in quantitative easing on the US economy. Quantitative easing policies can promote economic recovery to a certain extent, and the channel of portfolio rebalancing is also feasible in theory, but there are uncertainties in the factors affecting the economic environment. When solving the problem of high inflation caused by QE and active fiscal policy, it will have a negative impact on the current economy and enterprises. The government also needs to further consider the balance of economic development.

Forecasting Consumer Price Index Expenditure Inflation for Food Ingredients Using Singular Spectrum Analysis

Inflation is an economic problem that significantly impacts the macro economy and people's real income if it occurs continuously. South Sulawesi Province often experienced significant inflation fluctuations during 2005-2019. In 2015, inflation in South Sulawesi reached 3.32%, ranking the highest in Eastern Indonesia. Ten food ingredients played an essential role in influencing inflation that year. However, until now, research on forecasting Consumer Price Index expenditure inflation for food ingredients in South Sulawesi using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method has never been carried out. The novelty in this research lies in using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method, which provides a new contribution to forecasting inflation trends in South Sulawesi and deepens understanding of regional inflation problems. This research aims to forecast consumer price index expenditure inflation for food ingredients in South Sulawesi using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method. This research used CPI expenditure inflation data for food ingredients from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency of South Sulawesi for the monthly period from January 2014 - June 2022. The forecasting results show that the lowest inflation rate is predicted to occur in December 2022 at -0,12%, while the highest level is expected to be reached in May 2023 at 0.43%. Furthermore, the mean absolute percentage error value of 3.54% indicates that the forecasting model has a very good level of accuracy. The results of this forecasting have the potential to be used by economic policymakers in South Sulawesi in designing more effective policies to overcome the problem of inflation, especially in the food ingredients and its impact on society. The practical implications of this research can help improve regional economic stability and community welfare.

Measuring and analyzing the impact of monetary policy in confronting the problem of inflation in Iraq during the period (1990 - 2022).

The research aims to analyze the impact of monetary policy tools in facing the problem of inflation in Iraq during the period (1990-2022). In order to reach the goal of the research، the deductive (descriptive) approach and the (analytical - standard) method were used، depending on the secondary data for the period (1990-2022) and using the (E-views 12) program.The research reached several conclusions including the presence of a clear effect of all monetary policy tools in Iraq in facing the problem of inflation during the research period، but there is a clear difference in the size and direction of the impact of these tools، especially between the short and long term. Among these tools، it is noted that the impact of the interest rate in confronting the problem of inflation is greater compared to other tools.. The Central Bank can use modern tools and mechanisms in order to confront and control inflation، and these mechanisms include changes in the exchange rate، following foreign currency auctions، and loan and deposit facilities.

Acknowledging more biodiversity without more species

Delimiting and naming biodiversity is a vital step toward wildlife conservation and research. However, species delimitation must be consistent across biota so that the limited resources available for nature protection can be spent effectively and objectively. To date, newly discovered lineages typically are either left undescribed and thus remain unprotected or are being erroneously proposed as new species despite mixed evidence for completed speciation, in turn contributing to the emerging problem of taxonomic inflation. Inspired by recent conceptual and methodological progress, we propose a standardized workflow for species delimitation that combines phylogenetic and hybrid zone analyses of genomic datasets (“genomic taxonomy”), in which phylogeographic lineages that do not freely admix are ranked as species, while those that have remained fully genetically compatible are ranked as subspecies. In both cases, we encourage their formal taxonomic naming, diagnosis, and description to promote social awareness toward biodiversity. The use of loci throughout the genome overcomes the unreliability of widely used barcoding genes when phylogeographic patterns are complex, while the evaluation of divergence and reproductive isolation unifies the long-opposed concepts of lineage species and biological species. We suggest that a shift in conservation assessments from a single level (species) toward a two-level hierarchy (species and subspecies) will lead to a more balanced perception of biodiversity in which both intraspecific and interspecific diversity are valued and more adequately protected.

2023 Elections in Turkey within Global Context: Right Wing Populism in the Era of Global Shift

ABSTRACT Many observers predicted that the catastrophic earthquake of February 2023 and huge and unprecedent problems of high inflation and cost of living crisis would end Erdogan era and his credibility in Turkey. However, despite all ongoing deep problems, Erdogan and his AKP government, after more than 20 years in power, still managed to win the 2023 elections in the second round. It seems none of the serious economic and political problems were enough to get the majority of votes away from the governing party, AKP. Even in the cities where the earthquake costed high level of damage, AKP and Erdogan got significantly high votes, despite rampant corruption and economic mismanagement. The AKP government has not been punished either economically or politically. On the contrary, one of the most striking consequences of this election is that Turkey now has the most right-wing parliament in its recent modern history if we include the right-wing opposition parties in the composition.

Інфляційне таргетування в Україні: окремі аспекти, результати та висновки

Introduction. The large-scale war against Ukraine caused a radical change in its economic policy, including in the monetary sphere. However, this did not affect the plans of the National Bank of Ukraine to return to the inflation targeting (IT) regime after the end of the martial law period. Problem Statement. The introduction of IT in Ukraine was caused by chronic exchange rate and inflation problems that occurred despite many attempts to fix the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar. However, its application in Ukraine did not fully take into account the international experience accumulated by that time. In addition, the challenges caused by the start of military aggression against Ukraine in 2014 did not receive the necessary attention. Purpose. Analysis of some features and results of inflation targeting in Ukraine.Determination of possible areas of improvement of its monetary policy. Methods. Abstract-logical method, methods of comparisons, graphical and statistical analysis, theoretical generalization are used. Results. The conceptual provisions of IT in Ukraine have left without proper attention the world experience gained during the overcoming of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, as well as the corona crisis caused by COVID-19. In addition, the challenges caused by the start of military aggression against Ukraine in 2014 were not taken into account. As a result, the practical properties of IT in Ukraine corresponded to its rigid version, which was common before the crisis of 2008-2009. Conclusions. The transition of leading central banks to flexible IT was a forced move caused by their inability to promote economic growth by supporting price stability alone. This led to the expansion of the target orientation of monetary policy, as a result of which it began to focus not just on price stability, but “a rational balance between the stability of inflation and the stability of the use of resources.” In Ukraine, this qualitative transformation did not attract due attention. As a result, a number of problematic issues arose regarding the determination of the disinflation schedule, the speed of institutional reforms, target inflation, potential rates of economic growth, the effectiveness of using one (main) monetary instrument, the timeliness and validity of currency liberalization, the inability of the central bank to comply with IT without attracting stabilization loans from international organizations.

Інфляційне таргетування в Україні: окремі аспекти, результати та висновки

Introduction. The large-scale war against Ukraine caused a radical change in its economic policy, including in the monetary sphere. However, this did not affect the plans of the National Bank of Ukraine to return to the inflation targeting (IT) regime after the end of the martial law period. Problem Statement. The introduction of IT in Ukraine was caused by chronic exchange rate and inflation problems that occurred despite many attempts to fix the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar. However, its application in Ukraine did not fully take into account the international experience accumulated by that time. In addition, the challenges caused by the start of military aggression against Ukraine did not receive the necessary attention. Purpose. Analysis of some features and results of inflation targeting in Ukraine. Determination of possible areas of improvement of its monetary policy. Methods. Abstract-logical method, methods of comparisons, graphical and statistical analysis, theoretical generalization are used. Results. The conceptual provisions of IT in Ukraine have left without proper attention the world experience gained during the overcoming of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, as well as the corona crisis caused by COVID-19. In addition, the challenges caused by the start of military aggression against Ukraine in 2014 were not taken into account. As a result, the practical properties of IT in Ukraine corresponded to its rigid version, which was common before the crisis of 2008-2009. Conclusions. The transition of leading central banks to flexible IT was a forced move caused by their inability to promote economic growth by supporting price stability alone. This led to the expansion of the target orientation of monetary policy, as a result of which it began to focus not just on price stability, but "a rational balance between the stability of inflation and the stability of the use of resources." In Ukraine, this qualitative transformation did not attract due attention. As a result, a number of problematic issues arose regarding the determination of the disinflation schedule, the speed of institutional reforms, target inflation, potential rates of economic growth, the effectiveness of using one (main) monetary instrument, the timeliness and validity of currency liberalization, the inability of the central bank to comply with IT without attracting stabilization loans from international organizations.

Por que a economia é difícil de administrar e como isso pode ser tratado

ABSTRACT This paper raises some points about the economy and economic policies, and presents some possible economic solution, providing the stimulus for economic thought and importantly action to forestall economic problems. The practicable economic policies suggested in the paper would to some extent alleviate the serious economic problems of inflation, deflation, recessions, and unemployment, though it is also hoped that the suggested economic policies could permanently eliminate these serious economic issues. The successful implementation of these economic policies would certainly lead to a better society, possibly with inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment, and decent work for all.

FIGHTING INFLATION AND WAYS TO PREVENT IT

According to economists, the problem of inflation in the current period is a general economic condition that is in the focus of attention of governments of underdeveloped or developing countries, as well as countries with developed economies.The article outlines the actual problems associated with the fight against inflation and its elimination, and developed scientific proposals aimed at solving them.

The Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Hike on the Financial Industry: Focusing on the Exchange Market and Capital Market

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic, the Federal Reserve has implemented extremely loose fiscal and monetary policies, which has exacerbated the inflation problem in the United States. To combat high inflation, the Fed began raising rates in March 2022. This paper evaluates the impact of the Fed rate hike on the US financial sector, as well as on the foreign exchange market and the global capital market. The study found that higher interest rates could lead to higher interest rates in the interest rate market, and money would also flow from the stock market to the bond market, dealing a huge blow to banking funds. The paper also assesses the pace and magnitude of rate hikes and concludes that the Fed needs to slow and narrow the pace of rate hikes to prevent too fast and too large a rate hike from potentially causing chaos in the domestic financial sector.

Вычисление коэффициентов определяющих соотношений нелинейно-упругих материалов с использованием эволюционных алгоритмов

Abstract. The possibility of parameter identification for constitutive relations of materials based on uniaxial stretching of a nonlinear-elastic prismatic sample and on inflating a hollow cylinder has been studied. The experiments are modeled using the semi-inverse method of nonlinear theory of elasticity. To describe the mechanical properties of the studied objects, the potentials of compressible nonlinearly elastic media - Blatz and Ko material, and Murnaghan model are used. In the first stage, a series of direct problems are solved. Analytical expressions for the load-elongation dependence are used for the stretching problem. The three-dimensional problem of a cylinder inflation is reduced to a nonlinear boundary value problem for an ordinary second-order differential equation for the function of the radial displacement of cylinder points. In all cases, load diagrams are constructed based on the specified parameters of the nonlinearly elastic models, which are subsequently considered as initial data for the inverse problem of parameter identification. The problem is reduced to finding the minimum of the objective function which is defined as a least squares function. Two evolutionary algorithms were used for analysis: the Squirrel search algorithm (SSA), based on the model of the foraging behaviour of southern flying squirrel population, and the differential evolution algorithm (DE) from the SciPy library. Reliable identification of material parameters of models was shown using evolutionary algorithms based on load diagrams of samples, including condition of artificial noise of "experimental" data.

Initial conditions problem in cosmological inflation revisited

We present first results from a novel numerical relativity code based on a tetrad formulation of the Einstein-scalar field equations combined with recently introduced gauge/frame invariant diagnostics. The results provide support for the argument that inflation does not solve the homogeneity and isotropy problem beginning from generic initial conditions following a big bang.

HEDGING ABILITIES of STOCKS, GOLD, and REAL ESTATE FUNDS AGAINST INFLATION DURING COVID-19: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

The global economy is struggling with many challenges which started with the recession caused by the COVID-19 disease and continued with the high inflation problem. Investors seek safe havens in crisis periods and among many investment tools, real estate has always been an attractive tool to protect the purchasing powers of investors under high inflationary periods. By using Gultekin approach derived from the Fama-Schwert regression model, this study investigates the hedging ability of the Real Estate Investment Trusts and the Real Estate Investment Funds in Türkiye during the COVID-19 pandemic period (January 2020-December 2021). Additionally, the T-REIT Index, Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) 100 Index and gold (ounce/USD) and (gram/TL) were also analyzed in the study as benchmark tools. T-test, Jarque-Bera (1980), and Breusch-Pagan (1979) tests were used to validate the regression models. The results of the research revealed that only 4 of 33 T-REITs and 1 of 15 T-REIFs provided a hedge against inflation, while gold, BIST 100 and the T-REIT index did not have the statistical hedging ability during the COVID-19 period. The results of the research exhibited that, there are very few hedging tools under high inflation, and as a result, the purchasing powers of people are decreasing. Hence, the Central Bank of Türkiye Republic should seriously focus on fighting against inflation. Based on the reviewed past literature, this study seems to be the first research that seeks the hedging ability of the Turkish real estate capital market instruments in the COVID-19 period.

Application of sensitivity analysis in extension, inflation, and torsion of residually stressed circular cylindrical tubes

This paper deals with applying two main sensitivity analysis (SA) methods, namely, the Sobol method and the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method on the problem of mixed extension, inflation, and torsion of a circular cylindrical tube in the presence of residual stress. The mechanical side of the problem was previously proposed by Merodio & Ogden (2016). The input parameters in the form of the initial cylinder geometry, the amount of the residual stress, the azimuthal stretch, the axial elongation, and the torsional strain are distributed according to three probability distribution methods, namely the uniform, the gamma, and the normal distribution. In the present work, through applying Sobol and FAST methods, the most influential factors among input parameters on the output variable have been determined. The assessment of our results is then determined by the computation of bias and standard deviation of Sobol and FAST indices for each input parameter in the model.