Problem Of Inflation Research Articles

The Problem of Grade Inflation: Measurement and Analysis

The article includes qualitative and quantitative analysis of the undergraduate student assessment system features in one of the universities in Russia in order to define presence of grade inflation. Grade inflation is understood as assignment of higher grades irrespective of improvement in student academic performance. Three types of grade inflation are considered: static, dynamic and differential. The authors offer interpretation of these types and suggest their methods for measurement. The authors use specially collected grade data base of grades for compulsory and elective courses received by several cohorts of students admitted to a public research University. Statistical and econometric methods are used for quantitative analysis. The authors propose course ranking based on the degree of grade distribution shift that can be interpreted as a relative measure of grade inflation that is similar to Pearson asymmetry coefficient. Distribution of grades for elective courses show signes of static grade inflation. Dynamic and differential grade inflation were not detected in the sample analyzed. The paper explores grade inflation control policy options that were part of the consultations with various groups of academic staff. These include: normative regulation of grade distribution; equalizing of grade distribution for different types of courses; stricter regulation of student course selection by types of courses. The paper could be useful for academic managers and higher education administrators and experts that study systemic issues in university education and assessment systems performance in particular.

An Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing on Inflation in China

Abstract: The relationship between demographic change and economic development is one of the most recent and important research topics. Researchers have found that aging will have a certain impact on inflation, but there is still a research gap and controversy on China's inflation problem. Therefore, this paper collects data on the aging process of China's population and inflation rate between 2004 and 2023 and applies graphical analysis and literature analysis to study the data to try to find a cleaner relationship. Through the research, it can be concluded that China's changing population structure has a relatively inhibitory effect on inflation and a negative effect on economic development. The reason may be that the decline in the labor force caused by population aging has a greater impact on aggregate demand than on aggregate supply. Overall, to reduce the impact of the deepening process of population aging, postponing the retirement age and developing the elderly care industry can be an effective way to boost aggregate supply growth to control the increased inflation rate.

Restrictive monetary policy – an obstacle to foreign direct investment

This article examines some acute problems of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Monetary Policy and Inflation. Following a long declining trend, global FDI flows decreased in 2023 and remaining below the indicator of 2007, that is pre-global financial crisis level. According to international organizations, FDI flows were negatively affected by high interest rates, unfavourable financing conditions and situation on capital markets. The article considers the role of restrictive monetary policy alongside the theoretical aspects of global inflation. The author argues that the drop in international investment, in particular, can be attributed to Restrictive Monetary Policy in many countries. Restrictive Monetary Policy seems to underestimate the inflationary role of imperfect competition, the rise of prices for imported energy and food, the fluctuations of currency rates as well as expectations of the micro-level participants. The article provides certain economic recommendations to Russia’s regulators on Monetary and FDI Policy. In future the Bank of Russia may gradually move from Restrictive Monetary Policy to Expansionary Monetary Policy to provide stimulus for FDI. Also, this article summarizes the process of predicting future condition of the world economy in applying Kondratieff’s approach. The author concludes that it is necessary to continue studying the long wave theory with the aim of its further use in forecasting the events in Russia and worldwide.

Waiting for inflation: A new initial state for the Universe

We propose a cosmological lingering phase for the initial state prior to inflation which would help address the singularity problem of inflation. The Universe begins with a constant (Hagedorn) temperature and then transitions into an inflationary universe while preserving the null energy condition (NEC). We first consider the phase space of positive spatial curvature models within general relativity and with matter sources that respect the NEC. Depending on the duration of the postlingering inflation, these models can produce a small amount of observable spatial curvature in the cosmic microwave background. We also discuss how lingering can arise with or without spatial curvature in theories of quantum gravity when considering the thermodynamic scaling of particles and its impact on the early Universe. The string theory dilaton is essential to the dynamics. There are many open questions that remain. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments

We survey the weak instrumental variables (IV) literature with the aim of giving simple advice to applied researchers. This literature focuses heavily on the problem of size inflation in two-stage least squares (2SLS) two-tailed t-tests that arises if instruments are weak. A common standard for acceptable instrument strength is a first-stage F of 10, which renders this size inflation modest. However, 2SLS suffers from other important problems that exist at much higher levels of instrument strength. In particular, 2SLS standard errors tend to be artificially small in samples where the 2SLS estimate is close to ordinary least squares (OLS). This power asymmetry means the t-test has inflated power to detect false positive effects when the OLS bias is positive. The Anderson-Rubin (AR) test avoids this problem and should be used in lieu of the t-test even with strong instruments. We illustrate the practical importance of this issue in IV papers published in the American Economic Review from 2011 to 2023. Use of the AR test often reverses t-test results. In particular, IV estimates that are close to OLS and significant according to the t-test are often insignificant according to AR. We also show that for first-stage F in the 10–20 range there is a high probability that OLS estimates will be closer to the truth than 2SLS. Hence we advocate a higher standard of instrument strength in applied work.

Accurate and Model-independent Radius Determination of Single FGK and M Dwarfs Using Gaia DR3 Data

Measuring fundamental stellar parameters is key to fully comprehending the evolution of stars. However, current theoretical models overpredict effective temperatures, and underpredict radii, compared to observations of K and M dwarfs (radius inflation problem). In this work, we have developed a model-independent method to infer precise radii of single FGK and M dwarfs using Gaia DR3 parallaxes and photometry, and used it to study the radius inflation problem. We calibrated nine surface brightness–color relations for the three Gaia magnitudes and colors using a sample of stars with angular diameter measurements. We achieved an accuracy of 4% in our angular diameter estimations, which Gaia’s parallaxes allow us to convert to physical radii. We validated our method by comparing our radius measurements with literature samples and the Gaia DR3 catalog, which confirmed the accuracy of our method and revealed systematic offsets in the Gaia measurements. Moreover, we used a sample with measured Hα equivalent width (Hα EW), a magnetic activity indicator, to study the radius inflation problem. We demonstrated that active stars have larger radii than inactive stars, showing that radius inflation is correlated with magnetic activity. We found a correlation between the radius inflation of active stars and Hα EW for the mass bin 0.5 < M[M ⊙] ≤ 0.6, but we found no correlation for lower masses. This could be due to lack of precision in our radius estimation or a physical reason. Radius measurements with smaller uncertainties are necessary to distinguish between the two scenarios.

The Challenge in 2000−2009 to Phillips-Curve-Based Accounts of UK Economic Policy: Comment on Cristiano

A series of research papers that appeared from 2000 to 2009 made the case that the UK authorities in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s eschewed Phillips-curve-based analysis and that, consequently, the UK Great Inflation of the 1970s should not be regarded as resulting from policymakers’ pursuit of a perceived long-run inflation/unemployment trade-off. The position advanced in these 2000−2009 papers was that, instead, UK economic policy until 1979 subscribed to a nonmonetary perspective on inflation. This perspective implied UK authorities’ rejection of Phillips-curve-type trade-off analysis, but it also meant that they misjudged the importance of monetary policy in inflation control, thereby compounding the country's inflation problem. When this series of papers began to appear at the start of the 2000s, the trade-off-centered interpretation of the US Great Inflation was highly prevalent and was also being applied to the UK Great Inflation. By late in the decade, however, the case—as outlined in the 2000−2009 papers—against Phillips-curve-based accounts of historical policy conduct had gained notable acceptance among central bankers and academic researchers who discussed the UK Great Inflation. This article corrects erroneous statements that the challenge to Phillips-curve-based accounts of historical UK policymaker behavior only appeared in research starting in the 2010s.

The Influence of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates on Inflation in Indonesia

One of the problems in the economy in every country is the problem of inflation. Inflation is the process of increasing general goods which are basic goods needed by the community continuously. This study aims to see the factors that influence the inflation rate in Indonesia. The data used are secondary data obtained through the Provincial Central Statistics Agency. The data taken are inflation (Y), interest rates (X1), and exchange rates (X2) during the period 2015-2024. The research method used in this study is the time series method. The results of the analysis show that interest rates (X1) and exchange rates (X2) have a negative and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflow on the Socio-Economic Upgrading of Nigeria

The research determined if the inflow of foreign direct investment has a significant impact on the socioeconomic upgrading of the Nigerian economy. Standard of living and job creation served as measures of socioeconomic development. The methodology adopted involved the use of multiple regression analysis to assess secondary time series data from 1996 to 2020 sourced from the World Bank. The study revealed that foreign direct investment inflow has a positive effect on both employment generation and standard of living. The impact on job creation was significant while that on standard of living was weak. Thus the research was able to establish a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and socio-economic development in Nigeria. It was recommended that institutional frameworks be established and supported to enable foreign investors to operate profitably in the Nigerian economy. Another suggestion was for foreign firms operating in Nigeria to be given tax incentives to augment their ability to serve as engine of socio-economic enhancement of the host economy. Finally, the Nigerian government should tackle the problems of insecurity and inflation to foster macroeconomic stability, thus attracting the inflow of foreign direct investment.

Pengaruh Kebijakan Moneter terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

This study aims to describe the influence of money in circulation and the BI Rate on inflation in Indonesia from January 2021 to June 2023. This research is a literature study that departs from quantitative methods using secondary data obtained at the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This research uses a multiple linear regression approach using SPSS data processing tools. The results of the F test show that simultaneously, the variable money in circulation and the BI rate have a significant effect on inflation in Indonesia. Partially, both also have a significant influence on inflation. The findings of this research underline the importance of continuing to create various policies to overcome the inflation problem in Indonesia.

Extending the CWM approach to intraspecific trait variation: how to deal with overly optimistic standard tests?

Community weighted means (CWMs) are widely used to study the relationship between community-level functional traits and environment. For certain null hypotheses, CWM-environment relationships assessed by linear regression or ANOVA and tested by standard parametric tests are prone to inflated Type I error rates. Previous research has found that this problem can be solved by permutation tests (i.e., the max test). A recent extension of the CWM approach allows the inclusion of intraspecific trait variation (ITV) by the separate calculation of fixed, site-specific, and intraspecific CWMs. The question is whether the same Type I error rate inflation exists for the relationship between environment and site-specific or intraspecific CWM. Using simulated and real-world community datasets, we show that site-specific CWM-environment relationships have also inflated Type I error rate, and this rate is negatively related to the relative ITV magnitude. In contrast, for intraspecific CWM-environment relationships, standard parametric tests have the correct Type I error rate, although somewhat reduced statistical power. We introduce an ITV-extended version of the max test, which can solve the inflation problem for site-specific CWM-environment relationships and, without considering ITV, becomes equivalent to the "original" max test used for the CWM approach. We show that this new ITV-extended max test works well across the full possible magnitude of ITV on both simulated and real-world data. Most real datasets probably do not have intraspecific trait variation large enough to alleviate the problem of inflated Type I error rate, and published studies possibly report overly optimistic significance results.

Unemployment-Inflation Relationship in Germany

The Federal Republic of Germany has been one of the historically remarkable countries socially and economically. In this context, one of the outstanding issues is undoubtedly the correlation between unemployment and inflation, which is at the intersection of economy and social policy. Therefore, in the study, the unemployment-inflation trade-off in Germany was examined with the help of macroeconomic data in the context of the Modified/Original Phillips Curve, which explores the unemployment-inflation relationship. The empirical study method is time series analysis, and the monthly data set covers the period from January 1992 to April 2023. According to the study's findings, no causality relationship could be detected between unemployment and inflation variables in Germany in the period, neither in the long run nor in the short run. Therefore, it shows that the German economy does not have to put up with the inflation problem in the fight against unemployment and the unemployment problem in the battle against inflation. In this respect, it would be beneficial to thoroughly examine the German labour market structure and monetary policy strategy in the literature.

Exploring an LSTM-SARIMA routine for core inflation forecasting

The object of the research is the Core Inflation Forecasting. The paper investigates the performance of the novel model routine in the exercise of the Core Inflation Forecasting. It aggregates 300+ components into 6 by the similarity of their dynamics using an updated DTW algorithm fine-tuned for monthly time series and the K-Means algorithm for grouping. Then the SARIMA model extracts linear and seasonal components, which is followed by an LSTM model that captures non-linearities and interdependencies. It solves the problem of high-quality inflation forecasting using a disaggregated dataset. While standard and traditional econometric techniques are focused on the limited sets of data that consists just a couple of variables, proposed methodology is able to capture richer part of the volatility comprising more information. The model is compared with a huge pool of other models, simple ones like Random Walk and SARIMA, to ML models like XGBoost, Random Forest and simple LSTM. While all Data Science model shows decent performance, the DTW+K-Means+SARIMA+LSTM routine gives the best RMSE over 1-month ahead and 2-month ahead forecasts, which proves the high quality of the proposed forecasting model and solves the key problem of the paper. It is explained by the model's capability to capture both linear/seasonal patterns from the data using SARIMA part as long as it non-linear and interdependent using LSTM approach. Models are fitted for the case of Ukraine as long as they’ve been estimated on the corresponding data and may be actively used for further inflation forecasting.

Relevansi Pemikiran Ekonomi Islam Al-Maqrizi di Indonesia

Economic problems always attract people's attention in various fields of life, because economic stability is the basis of people's material well-being. While the monetary phenomenon that causes inflation is a continuous process of currency depreciation. The focus of this research is on the relevance of Al-Maqrizi's Islamic economic thinking in Indonesia, as well as the role of the government in overcoming inflation in Indonesia. The purpose of this research is to find a solution to the problem and control inflation so that it is not high in Indonesia, and to see how the government's policy is in overcoming Indonesian inflation from the perspective of Al-Maqrizi. The method used in this research is descriptive qualitative method. The results of this study are Al-Maqrizi's thoughts which are still relevant to the economy in Indonesia, namely regarding the problems of money and inflation. Al-Maqrizi to overcome the problem of inflation with the establishment of the Baitul Maal. Meanwhile, what the Indonesian government has done in dealing with inflation is combining central bank policies with finance department policies such as a tight money policy by the central bank.

Scaled average bioequivalence methods for highly variable drugs: Leveling-off soft limits and the EMA's 2010 guideline (some ways to improve its type I error control).

The regulatory EMA's reference scaled average bioequivalence (RSABE) approach for highly variable drugs suffers from some type I error control problems at the neighborhood of the 30% coefficient of variation (CV), where the bioequivalence (BE) limits change from constant to linearly scaled. This paper analyses BE inference methods based on the "Leveling-off" (LO) soft sigmoid expanding BE limits that were proposed as an appealing surrogate for the EMA's limits and compares both approaches, on the replicated and partially replicated crossover designs. The initially proposed version of the LO method also has type I error inflation problems, albeit attenuated. But given its more mathematically regular character, it is more suitable for analytical corrections. Here we introduce two improvements over LO, one based on the application of Howe's method and the other based on correcting the estimation error. They further reduce the type I error inflation, although it does not disappear completely. Finally, the effect of heteroscedasticity on the above results is studied. It leads to inflation or deflation of the type I error, depending on the design and the type of heteroscedasticity (variability of the test product greater than that of the reference product or the opposite). The replicated design is much more stable against these effects than the partially replicated design and maintains these improvements much better.

The relationship between money supply and inflation: analysis with PANELVAR approach

The relationship between money supply and inflation: analysis with PANELVAR approach

The Return of Inflation

Inflation, after an extended absence, is back. Its resumption reflects a combination of supply and demand factors: supply-side disruptions to trade and production associated with COVID-19; and shifts in the composition of demand to goods from services, along with strong stimulus to spending owing to support payment provided by governments. There is disagreement about what to do in response: whether central banks should continue to respond with increases in interest rates, and whether there is a role for selective wage and price controls. Above all, there is disagreement about how long the inflation problem is likely to persist.

Eternal inflation and collapse theories

The eternal inflation problem continues to be considered one of standard's cosmology most serious shortcomings. This arises when one considers the effects of “quantum fluctuations” on the zero mode of inflaton field during a Hubble time in the inflationary epoch.In the slow-roll regime it is quite clear that such quantum fluctuations could dwarf the classical rolling down of the inflaton, and with overwhelming probability this prevents inflation from ever ending. When one recognizes that quantum fluctuations can not be taken as synonymous of stochastic fluctuations, but rather intrinsic levels of indefiniteness in the quantities in question, one concludes that the eternal inflation problem simply does not exist. However, the same argument would serve to invalidate the account for the generation of the primordial seeds of cosmic structure as has been amply discussed elsewhere [1,2,3]. In order to do address that issue, one must explain the breaking of homogeneity and isotropy of the situation prevailing during the early inflationary epoch (at both the quantum and classical levels of the description). For that one needs to rely on some additional element, beyond those present in the traditional treatments. The so called spontaneous collapse theories offer a viable candidate for that element, namely the stochastic and spontaneous state reduction characteristic of those proposals possesses the basic features to break those symmetries. In fact, a version of the CSL theory adapted to the cosmological context has been shown to offer a satisfactory account for the origin the seeds of cosmic structure with an adequate power spectrum [2], and will serve as the basis of our analysis. However, once such stochastic collapse is introduced into the theoretical framework the eternal inflation problem has the potential reappear.In this manuscript we explore those issues in detail and discuss an avenue that seems to allow for a satisfactory account for the generation of the primordial inhomogeneities and anisotropies while freeing the theory from the eternal inflation problem.

Exploring Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan; Fresh Insights from Vector Autoregressive Analysis

It is a widespread argument that mild inflation is in favor of the economic growth of an economy. However, high inflation can be destructive to consumers as well as to businesses and the overall economy. Hence, identifying essential sources of inflation is crucial for both the central bank and economic units. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to examine the key determinants of inflation in Pakistan by using time series data over the period extending from July 1993 to May 2021 and employing the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. The variables are seasonally adjusted while growth rates of all the variables are used except for the interest rate in the study. The model results revealed that global crude oil prices, imports, money supply, and government borrowing are the most important determinants of inflation in Pakistan. Furthermore, the findings also showed that the exchange rate and interest rate have a positive effect on inflation and are statistically significant. Based on the findings, the study recommended that inflation may be kept under control by taking the following measures such as controlling government borrowings, money supply, and particularly, imports. Additionally, regulating exports and interest rates can also help in combating the problem of inflation.

Raising interest rates was the wrong medicine

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine the causes of 2021–2023 inflation and evaluate whether raising interest rates is the right solution.Design/methodology/approachThe authors evaluate both the macroeconomic (too much demand) and microeconomic (monopoly pricing and supply chains) explanations for the causes of inflation.FindingsThe authors argue that the spike in inflation is due to disrupted supply chains and corporations taking advantage of the situation to raise their prices. The aggregate demand stimulus from fiscal policy had all but played out by the time inflation arose, making it an unlikely cause of said inflation.Originality/valueThe authors' paper demonstrates that raising interest rates is the wrong solution to tackling the problem of inflation, especially since it's coming from the supply side.