Probability Of Unemployment Research Articles

Unintended consequences of the introduction of specialized bankruptcy courts: evidence from zombie lending

We examine the economic consequences of the introduction of specialized bankruptcy courts (SBCs) from the perspective of zombie lending, using a sample of Chinese listed zombie firms in the 2016–2021 period. We find that the introduction of SBCs unexpectedly and significantly increases zombie lending, given the perverse incentives for banks and the intervention of local governments. The mechanism is that the introduction of SBCs improves the firms' bankruptcy efficiency, which increases the exposure probability of banks' bad loans and regional unemployment. To conceal these bad loans and unemployment, banks and local governments have to dramatically increase zombie lending. Thus, while better bankruptcy procedures are typically assumed to discourage zombie lending, we show that the introduction of SBCs may instead encourage such lending by exacerbating conflicts among creditors and political-economic frictions.

Workplace Accommodations and the Labor Force Status of Persons with Disabilities.

The aim of the study is to examine the role of unmet needs for workplace accommodations (WPA) in the labor force status of persons with disabilities (PWD) aged 25-64years. The study used data from the 2017 Canadian Survey on Disability and multinomial logistic regressions to estimate the predicted probabilities of employment, unemployment, detachment from the labor force, and retirement. Product terms were used to examine if the association between unmet needs for WPA and these employment outcomes depended on severity of disability and age group. The findings show that the probability of employment was far lower for PWD with unmet needs for WPA than it was for their counterparts without unmet needs, after controlling for disability-related and sociodemographic characteristics. While having more severe disabilities associated with a lower employment rate, this occurred in the context of unmet needs for WPA, as there was no difference between persons with milder and more severe disabilities without unmet needs. Unmet needs for WPA had age-specific consequences and were associated with a higher probability of unemployment and detachment from the labor force among PWDs aged 25-34years and a higher probability of retirement among PWD aged 55-64years. Unmet needs for WPA are a barrier to the employment chances of many PWD and eliminating these unmet needs could increase their inclusion in the labor force.

Age Differences in Unemployment Risk and Reemployment Outcomes in Late Working Life in Sweden

ABSTRACT Participation of older workers in the labor market depends, among other things, on older workers employment chances. This study examines age differences regarding risk of unemployment and reemployment outcomes in late working life in Sweden. Using Swedish registry data, we analyzed the probability of unemployment as well as work-related activity following unemployment (wage- or self-employment; exit; downward mobility) of all people born between 1954 and 1968 (aged 49–63) and registered in Sweden between the years 2012 and 2018. Results show that although risk of unemployment does not differ significantly across age groups, younger age groups are more likely to be reemployed as wage-employed while older age groups are more likely to be reemployed as self-employed or exit working life. After an unemployment period, older employees are more likely to have a lower wage than during their previous employment or become part-time unemployed. We conclude that different age groups have unequal chances in late working life in terms of reemployment, risk of exit, and risk of downward mobility following unemployment. Policies for extending working life and promoting inequality should include measures for increasing employability of older workers such as anti-discriminatory laws and dealing with skills mismatch.

Social contacts, neighborhoods and individual unemployment risk

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to empirically investigate whether social contacts can mediate the way in which current unemployment impacts future unemployment.Design/methodology/approachWe use 2006–2017 data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey and a dynamic random-effects model to describe the evolution of individual unemployment status over time.FindingsOnce controlled for the local context where individuals live and create friendships, we find that above-average social contacts reduce unemployment persistence. However, social contacts seem to be slightly less effective in deprived neighborhoods. These findings are consistent with the idea that individuals obtain information about job opportunities through a network of social contacts, and unemployment may lead to a decay of social capital, making it more difficult to find employment in future periods. Our results also show that neighborhood deprivation increases individual unemployment risk, while above-average neighborhood cohesion reduces the probability of unemployment in deprived neighborhoods.Originality/valueAlthough many studies have been published on unemployment persistence, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study quantifying the impact of social contacts on unemployment persistence. The study also offers fresh empirical evidence on the impact of neighborhood characteristics on unemployment risk.

Implementation of Indonesian and Swiss Cooperation Regarding Returning Assets Proceeds of Corruption Within the Framework of Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters 2019-2022

The aim of this work is to identify the chances of individuals moving to the state of unemployment in the Brazilian labor market with the application of a logit model, analyzing two moments: before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and during the Covid-19 crisis. Evidence indicates that there was an increase in the probabilities of unemployment among pardos in relation to white and black groups. The chances of male groups being unemployed during and, therefore, after the crisis were lower than in previous periods. Black women had a more fragile situation in which they saw the threat of transition to unemployment increase by about 40% compared to the period before the health crisis

The Value of an Arts Degree: Career Success and Inequality

This study examines the value of a college degree for artists, in addition to racial, sex, and ethnic differences. I use propensity score matching on data from the 2015–2019 American Community Survey to produce causal estimates of the effect of getting an arts degree and a non-arts bachelor’s degree on income, and the probability of unemployment, self-employment, and working in an arts industry. The results illustrate that degrees positively affect artists’ average incomes and, depending on the type of degree, the probability of working in an arts industry. The analyses also illustrate that degrees have differential effects on artists’ employment outcomes based on race, sex, and ethnicity, though not always in the direction we would expect. The results illustrate the often-delicate balance between building a career as an artist and maintaining a livelihood and that individual differences with respect to career aspirations and personal circumstances moderate employment outcomes that are often attributed to common educational trajectories.

A procedure for predicting, illustrating, communicating, and optimizing patient-centered outcomes of epilepsy surgery using nomograms and Bayes’ theorem

Clinicians have an ethical obligation to obtain and convey relevant information about possible treatment outcomes in a manner that can be comprehended by patients. This contributes to the processes of informed consent and shared prospective decision-making. In epilepsy neurosurgery, there has historically been an emphasis on studying clinician-centered (e.g., seizure- and cognition-related) outcomes and using these data to inform recommendations and, by extension, to frame pre-surgical counseling with respect to patients’ decisions about elective neurosurgery. In contrast, there is a relative dearth of available data related to patient-centered outcomes of epilepsy neurosurgery, such as functional (e.g., employment) status, and there is also a lack of methods to communicate these data to patients. Here, illustrated using a hypothetical case scenario, we present a potential solution to the latter of these problems using principles of evidence-based neuropsychology; published data on patient employment status before and after epilepsy neurosurgery; and Bayes’ theorem. First, we reviewed existing literature on employment outcomes following epilepsy neurosurgery to identify and extract data relevant to our hypothetical patient, clinical question, and setting. Then, we used the base rate (prior probability) of post-surgical unemployment, contingency tables (to derive likelihood ratios), and Bayes’ theorem to compute the conditional (posterior) probability of post-surgical employment status for our hypothetical patient scenario. Finally, we translated this information to an intuitive visual format (Bayesian nomogram) that can support evidence-based pre-surgical counseling. We propose that the application of our patient-centered decision-support process and visual aid will improve clinician-patient communication about prospective risks and benefits of epilepsy neurosurgery and will empower clinicians and patients to make informed decisions about whether or not to pursue elective neurosurgery with a greater degree of confidence and with more realistic and concrete expectations about possible outcomes. We further propose that clinicians and patients would benefit from incorporating this evidence-based framework into a broader sequence of function-focused epilepsy treatment that includes pre-surgical assessments and interventions (“prehabilitation”), neurosurgery, and post-surgical cognitive/vocational rehabilitation.

Unemployment persistence among second-generation immigrants

Abstract Many immigrant groups disproportionately experience unemployment and this disadvantage often extends to their children—the second generation. This paper contributes to this stream of research by studying unemployment dynamics of the ancestral population and second-generation immigrants in Sweden. In particular, we ask: does unemployment persistence differ between ancestral Swedes and 10 second-generation immigrant groups? We answer this question using correlated dynamic random-effects logit models to study the effect of past on current unemployment—also known as genuine state dependence. We use Swedish register data to follow individuals over their early working careers. The results indicate that although past unemployment has a similar relative effect on current unemployment across the ancestry groups, past unemployment increases the probability of current unemployment (absolute effect) more among second-generation Middle-Eastern, Turkish, and Southern European immigrants. Because of higher baseline levels of unemployment, the labour market consequences of similar relative effects are more pronounced among the second generation as compared to ancestral Swedes. The paper concludes by elaborating on the reasons behind these contrasting results while highlighting the importance of examining heterogeneous effects on both the relative and absolute scales.

Work Placement and Job Satisfaction in Long-Term Childhood Cancer Survivors: The Impact of Late Effects.

Simple SummaryDue to previous cancer and its treatments, long-term childhood cancer survivors (CCS) are at risk of developing medical comorbidities, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability. Above all, work placement, financial independence, and job satisfaction can represent burdensome areas for some CCS. Regarding this topic, it is important to consider the variety of country-specific educational and vocational systems. The aim of this study is to provide a description of the occupational status of CCS in the Italian socio-economic scenery and to evaluate the association between late effects and unemployment and late effects and job satisfaction. Our data contribute to the description of the different country scenery of work placement for CCS in Europe and agree with previous literature on the impact of severe late effects on occupation. Future research in this field can be focused on interventions to improve CCS in obtaining jobs suitable for their health.Late effects of cancer and its treatments during childhood or adolescence can impact work placement and increase the risk of unemployment. The aim of this study is to describe the work placement and the perceived job and economic satisfaction of long-term childhood cancer survivors (CCS). Jobs have been categorized according to the International Standard Classification of Occupations version 08 (ISCO-08), and satisfaction has been evaluated through the Satisfaction Profile (SAT-P). Out of 240 CCS (female = 98) included: 53 were students, 46 were unemployed and 141 were employed. Within unemployed survivors, 89.13% were affected by late effects (n = 41). The presence of at least one severe late effect was significantly associated with the probability of unemployment (OR 3.21; 95% CI 1.13–9.12, p < 0.050), and having any late effect was inversely related to the level of satisfaction of the financial situation of unemployed CCS (b −35.47; 95% CI −59.19, −11.74, p = 0.004). Our results showed that being a survivor with severe comorbidities has a significantly negative impact on occupation and worsens the perception of satisfaction of economic situations. Routinary follow-up care of CCS should include the surveillance of socioeconomic development and provide interventions, helping them to reach jobs suitable for their health.

Research on the Influence of Informal Employment on Residents' Happiness in China: Empirical Analysis Based on CLDS Data.

The influence of informal employment on residents’ happiness has gained wide attention around the world. However, few studies focus on this topic in China. Using the 2016 wave of the China Labor Force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) data, we examined the effect of informal employment and its mechanisms on residents’ happiness in China. Our study shows there is a significant negative correlation between informal employment and residents’ happiness in China. Moreover, the correlation between informal employment and residents’ happiness is stronger for residents who are female, migrating, and with a rural household registration. In addition, we investigated possible mechanisms of the effect, including individual income, social respect, unemployment expectations, and social security, and found that informal employment reduces the happiness of residents by widening the gap in unemployment probability and social insurance level among residents.

Optimizing the Multi-Level Location-Assignment Problem in Queue Networks Using a Multi-Objective Optimization Approach

Abstract Using hubs in distribution networks is an efficient approach. In this paper, a model for the location-allocation problem is designed within the framework of the queuing network in which services have several levels, and customers must go through these levels to complete the service. The purpose of the model is to locate an appropriate number of facilities among potential locations and allocate customers. The model is presented as a multi-objective nonlinear mixed-integer programming model. The objective functions include the summation of the customer and the waiting time in the system and the waiting time in the system and minimizing the maximum possibility of unemployment in the facility. To solve the model, the technique of accurate solution of the epsilon constraint method is used for multi-objective optimization, and Pareto solutions of the problem will be calculated. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the problem is performed, and the results demonstrate sensitivity to customer demand rate. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the proposed model is able to greatly summate the customer and the waiting time in the system and reduce the maximum probability of unemployment at several levels of all facilities. The model can also be further developed by choosing vehicles for each customer.

Do Sticky Wages Matter? New Evidence from Matched Firm Survey and Register Data

We study the causal effects of downward nominal wage rigidity after a deflationary monetary policy shock using Swiss data on employee‐level contractual wages matched with income and employment from social security register data. We exploit the discontinuity around the origin of the wage growth distribution to compare the outcomes of individuals with wage freezes (treatment group) and small wage cuts (control group) before and after an unexpected decision by the Swiss National Bank leading to a 1% decline of the price level. Locally (that is, near the origin of the wage growth distribution), downward nominal wage rigidities cause a 4.4% decline in income and a 0.7 percentage point increase in the probability of unemployment. In the aggregate, income declines by 0.3% and the probability of unemployment increases by 0.05 percentage points.

The Unemployment Imbalance Between Non-English-Speaking Migrant Women and Australian Born Women

This study compares Non-English-Speaking migrant women’s unemployment situation with that of Australian born women, using the currently available 1% sample from the Australian 2016 Census data. A new general probit model is used to estimate the probability of unemployment for both groups combined, as well as for each of these groups separately to show the difference in unemployment rates between the two groups. Our contribution is to show how to estimate and test the imbalance in unemployment rates between the two groups. We show that the unemployment rate for Non-English-Speaking migrant women (7.2%) is significantly higher than for Australian born women (5.1%), but the gap is narrowing over time. We show that the unemployment rate for Non-English-Speaking migrant women increases when they are married and have children and when they have poor English proficiency and lower education levels. This implies that there is a significant higher probability of unemployment for Non-English-Speaking migrant women across human capital and demographic controls. We have discussed other dimensions of unemployment such as discrimination and cultural activities and shown that these are the main factors behind the relatively higher unemployment rate for Non-English-Speaking migrant women.

The Impact of International Migration on Skills Supply and Demand in South Africa

This study investigated the demographic, education and labour market characteristics of three groups: (1) immigrants into South Africa; (2) natives who remained in the country; (3) emigrants into the top five destination countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and USA). The empirical findings were used to examine the extent of migration to and from the country, from the perspectives of skills supply and demand. Emigrants were most educated, enjoyed the lowest unemployment probability (about 10%), and were most likely to be involved in high-paying skilled occupations and tertiary sector activities as full-time employees (if employed). The immigrants fared worse than the emigrants but better than natives. These immigrants, mainly originating from the other African countries, were slightly more educated, but enjoyed higher LFPR (75%) and lower unemployment likelihood (20%), compared with the natives (55% and 30% respectively). Furthermore, for both above-mentioned two groups, they were distinguished into long-term, medium-term and short-term migrants, and it was found that long-term migrants fared relatively better in the labour markets of their respective host countries. Overall, the findings strongly indicated brain drain out of South Africa, and exodus of highly educated and skilled people is not complemented by a rapid increase of supply of equally educated and skilled labour force entrants in the country. The study recommended four policy suggestions: ease up regulations to attract skilled immigrants, promote entrepreneurial activities of immigrants, better develop and retain skills of the natives, improve migration and vacancy data capture, availability, usage and analysis.

Adolescent cannabis experimentation and unemployment in young to mid-adulthood: Results from the French TEMPO Cohort study

BackgroundFrance accounts for one of the highest levels of recreational cannabis use, with almost 40% of youth aged 17 reporting having experimented with cannabis. We investigated the impact of early cannabis experimentation (defined as first-time use ≤ 16 years) on future probability of unemployment in young to mid-adulthood using a longitudinal, community sample over the span of 9 years. MethodsData were obtained from the French TEMPO Cohort study, set up in 2009 among young adults aged 22–25 years old. Participants who reported information on age of cannabis experimentation and employment status in at least one study wave (2009, 2011, 2015 and 2018) were included in the statistical analyses (N = 1487, 61.2% female). ResultsIn A-IPW-adjusted analyses, early cannabis experimenters (≤ 16 years) had 1.71 (95% CI: 1.46–2.02) times higher odds of experiencing unemployment compared to late cannabis experimenters (> 16 years) and 2.40 (95% CI: 2.00 – 2.88) times higher odds of experiencing unemployment compared to non-experimenters. Late cannabis experimenters experienced 1.39 (95% CI: 1.17–1.68) times higher odds of being unemployed compared to non-experimenters, and early cannabis experimenters experienced 3.84 (95%CI: 2.73–5.42) times higher odds of experiencing long-term unemployment (defined as unemployed at least twice) compared to non-experimenters. ConclusionsParticipants who ever used cannabis, especially at or before the age of 16, had higher odds of experiencing unemployment, even when accounting for many psychological, academic and family characteristics which preceded cannabis initiation.

Wired and Hired: Employment Effects of Subsidized Broadband Internet for Low-Income Americans

I present evidence on the relationship between broadband pricing and labor market outcomes for low-income individuals. Specifically, I estimate the effects of a Comcast service providing discounted broadband to qualifying low-income families. I use a triple differences strategy exploiting geographic variation in Comcast coverage, individual variation in eligibility, and temporal variation pre- and postlaunch. Local program availability increased employment rates and earnings of eligible individuals, driven by greater labor force participation and decreased probability of unemployment. Internet use increased substantially where the program was available. (JEL I32, J22, J31, L82, L86)

Labour market profiles of Albanian migrants in Italy: Evidence from Lombardy 2001–2015

AbstractAlbanian migration to Italy represents one of the most intense and iconic East‐West migration flows of recent decades and a paradigmatic case of intra‐Mediterranean migration. This paper uses a unique data set collected by the Lombardy region’s Observatory of Integration and Multiethnicity in 15 annual cross‐sectional surveys over the period 2001–2015. Analysis of this data set enables us to address three questions: first, what are the main factors influencing the labour market performance of Albanian migrants in Lombardy compared with other migrants? Second, what were the differential effects of the post‐2008 economic crisis on migrants’ employment stability? Third, were there any significant gender differences in labour market profiles and outcomes? Our main finding is that Albanian migrants have a lower probability of (long‐term)unemployment and irregular employment and higher probability of employment compared with other migrants, an effect that is partially attributable to the different structural composition of the Albanian migrant group.

Staging and stratifying cognitive dysfunction in multiple sclerosis

Background: The sequence in which cognitive domains become impaired in multiple sclerosis (MS) is yet to be formally demonstrated. It is unclear whether processing speed dysfunction temporally precedes other cognitive impairments, such as memory and executive function. Objective: Determine the order in which different cognitive domains become impaired in MS and validate these findings using clinical and vocational outcomes. Methods: In a longitudinal sample of 1073 MS patients and 306 healthy controls, we measured performance on multiple, consensus-standard, neurocognitive tests. We used an event-based staging approach to model the sequence in which cognitive domains become impaired. Linear and logistic mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between stages of impairment, neurological disability, and employment status. Results: Our model suggested that the order of impairments was as follows: processing speed, visual learning, verbal learning, working memory/attention, and executive function. Stage of cognitive impairment predicted greater neurological disability, β = 0.16, SE = 0.02, p < 0.001, and probability of unemployment, β = 1.14, SE = 0.001, p < 0.001. Conclusion: This is the first study to introduce a cognitive staging and stratification system for MS. Findings underscore the importance of using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test in routine screening for cognitive impairment and memory testing to assess patients later in disease evolution.

Formal differentiation at upper secondary education in Finland: subject-level choices and stratified pathways to socio-economic status and unemployment

We study labour market outcomes by formal differentiation at upper secondary and tertiary level in Finland. Using full population register data, we take individuals born in 1976 and explore their socio-economic status and the probability of unemployment by educational qualifications and social origin in early adulthood (age 30) and at occupational maturity (age 40). We differentiate based on the level of maths, the most consequential subject choice at general upper secondary education, and show that subject-level choices divert students to stratified tertiary-level degrees and labour market positions net of prior school performance, social origin and gender. In addition, we show that educational performance and qualifications mediate the association between social origin and socio-economic status by 81‒83%, leaving around one fifth to unobserved social origin differences. We also find that there are no major differences between upper secondary school tracks with respect to experiencing unemployment at age 30 or 40. Moreover, further educational degrees do not appear to provide additional protection against unemployment than having obtained an upper secondary qualification.

Employer tenure in gays, lesbians and their straight counterparts

PurposeThis article aims to shed more light on seemingly contradicting labour market outcomes of lesbians: they were found to have similar unemployment rates as straight women but their unemployment spells are significantly shorter. No such contradiction is observed for gays who seem to have on average a higher unemployment rate and longer unemployment spells compared to straight men.Design/methodology/approachThe main hypothesis is that lesbian and gay employees spend ceteris paribus shorter time working for a given employer (employer tenure) than comparable straight people. This hypothesis is tested on EU Labour Force Survey data using multi-level regression model.FindingsConsistently with the predictions, lesbians and gays were found to have significantly shorter employer tenure than their straight counterparts. These differences remained significant after controlling for individual, workplace and occupational characteristics. The results suggest that shorter employer tenure of lesbians and (possibly) gays is driven by labour demand factors.Originality/valueTo author's knowledge this is the first large-scale quantitative study that compares the employer tenure between lesbians, gays and comparable heterosexuals. The study provides additional insight into mechanisms that lead to (lack of) differentials in unemployment probability between these groups.