Probability Of Turnover Research Articles

Insider Trading and CEO Pay-Gap Induced Turnover

We explore how insider trading returns, disparities in executive pay, and CEO turnover are interrelated. Our findings reveal both independent and interactive effects for insider trading returns, the CEO pay gap, and the likelihood of CEO turnover. First, an increase in abnormal returns from insider purchases lowers the probability of a CEO’s turnover, while an increase in abnormal returns from insider sales increases the likelihood of a CEO’s dismissal. Second, the CEO pay gap negatively affects the probability of CEO turnover for insider purchases, but it does not have a similar effect on insider sales. Third, the interaction between insider abnormal returns and any CEO pay disparity influences the impact of these returns on CEO turnover. Specifically, this interaction diminishes the positive effect of insider selling on the probability of a CEO’s dismissal, offsets the negative effect of insider purchasing on CEO dismissal, and, finally, amplifies the negative impact of CEO pay disparity on the probability of a CEO’s dismissal during periods witnessing insider purchases.

The Impact of Zodiac Signs on Sales Performance and Turnover Rates: A Case Study of Kinlong Hardware in China

As a senior executive at a Chinese company included in the MSCI Index, the author considered the personality mix of marketing personnel when recruiting, aiming to balance performance and stability. In practice, I found that the performance of marketing personnel is closely related to their zodiac signs, although biases from senior management, particularly in HR, had to be carefully mitigated to ensure objective results. Salespeople with fire signs and other extroverted signs often perform better but are also more impulsive, easily influenced by external environments, and more likely to leave. We collected sales personnel data from the company’s Oracle database from 2014 to 2023, with a valid sample size of 9,291 people, using the logit model and OLS model to explore the performance and stability of employees with different zodiac signs. Results show that, holding other factors constant, extroverted signs have a 2.37% higher probability of turnover and an 8.00% higher average performance than introverted signs. This data, while novel, is framed within the limitations of using zodiac signs as a proxy for personality traits, a subject where more established scientific literature is lacking. We recommend that companies configure their sales teams with 60% extroverted personnel to drive innovation and 40% introverted personnel to ensure team stability.

Audit committee attributes and audit report timeliness of quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria

The study examined the effect of audit committee attributes on audit report timeliness in quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Other specific objectives were to: assess the effect of audit committee independence and audit committee size, on audit report timeliness in quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria over the period of 2017-2022. This study adopted quantitative research design. The study selected four listed manufacturing firms in Lagos were Unilever Nigeria PLC, Nigeria Breweries PLC, UAC Foods PLC and Cadbury Nigeria PLC. The data analytical techniques were descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and Generalized Panel Ordinary Least Squares (GLS). The empirical result showed that audit committee independence has positive and significant impact on audit report timeliness in quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria (t-statistic; 2.9267; P-value; 0.0043 < Sig-value; 0.05); audit committee size has positive and significant impact on audit report timeliness in quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria (t-statistic; 2.9267; P-value; 0.0043 < Sig-value; 0.05). The study recommends that management of manufacturing firms should board should be on the bases of age and experience not on friendship since it positively relates to performance and to the probability of disciplinary management turnover in poorly performing manufacturing firms.

Competence enhancement from interactive learning: Does attending conferences affect CEO turnover?

Managers can benefit from learning about stock prices and voluntary disclosure feedback to solidify their position. However, the value of managerial interactive learning is often overlooked. This paper examines the impact of CEO conference interactions on forced turnover. In specifications that include CEO fixed effects to absorb certain personality traits or work abilities, we find that directly interactive CEOs have a lower probability of turnover and weaken turnover-performance link. CEOs with interactive learning can change post-turnover profitability and curb declining performance. This entrenched CEO job after conference interactions is equally strong for first-time visitors, after excluding debriefings from other executives, where external pressures are higher, and it is much weaker for non-CEO executives, consistent with a role for CEOs' competence improvement from interactive learning. Positive and negative information content can be captured during meetings as reflected by the CEO's emotional tone and response to rumors. Our findings differ from earlier studies because of our emphasis on within-group estimation, and we focus on the impact of CEOs' interactive learning to acquire abilities rather than personality traits or job competence.

Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT) - a model to analyse turnovers from passing events in football

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to create a novel metric, Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT), that could evaluate possession retention from player-passing events in football. Event and positional data were analysed from all 380 matches in the 2020/21 English Premier League season, which encompassed 256,433 passes in the final dataset. A logistic mixed-effects model was implemented to attribute the probability of each pass getting turned over. The use of positional data enabled the identification of a) opposition players present in radii surrounding the ball carrier and b) availability of teammates with respect to the ball carrier. The addition of these positional features improved the accuracy (+6.1 AUC Score) of the model. xPT serves as a practitioner Key Performance Indicator, as analysts can identify players that lose possession more often or not than expected, given the situational context of each pass, from game to game. Future work may include modelling the turnover probability of dribble and carry actions, as this would lead to a more comprehensive understanding of turnover events in football.

Political power differential and forced CEO turnover: Evidence from Chinese non‐state‐owned enterprises

AbstractIn China, the prevalence of strong political connections among a significant number of boards of directors and CEOs highlights the importance of cultivating such relationships. This is particularly relevant when considering the Chinese political system where officers holding higher political ranks wield dominant, or even absolute, power in decision‐making. Our findings reveal that the political power differential (PPD) between a board of directors and its CEO plays a pivotal role in mitigating CEO entrenchment associated with political power. Specifically, when directors possess more political power than their CEOs, they can effectively fulfil their disciplinary role, leading to the dismissal of underperforming CEOs. Our study substantiates a significantly positive relationship between PPD and the probability of a forced CEO turnover, as well as the sensitivity of CEO turnover to performance. Notably, as PPD increases by one standard deviation from its mean level, we observe an approximate 30% increase in CEO turnover‐performance sensitivity. These findings confirm a higher likelihood of replacing underperforming CEOs in firms with a politically powerful board. Our results also highlight that a higher proportion of either independent or female directors alone does not guarantee effective monitoring. The key lies in ensuring that these directors possess stronger political power than the CEO.

CEO turnovers due to poor industry performances: An examination of the boards’ retention criteria

Numerous studies examine CEO turnover but rarely in the context of business cycles. We demonstrate that the role of the set of turnover decision parameters could change according to industry conditions. Specifically, idiosyncratic returns are more conducive to forced CEO turnover probabilities during recessions than during booms, whereas the opposite is true for industry returns. We provide evidence supporting that idiosyncratic returns are more correlated with managerial ability and stock prices are more informative during recessions. Our findings shed light on how CEOs are assessed by company boards when making turnover decisions.

A Bad Commute: Travel Time to Work Predicts Teacher Turnover and Other Workplace Outcomes

Research suggests that longer commute times may increase employee turnover probabilities by increasing stress and reducing job attachment and embeddedness. Using administrative data from a midsized urban school district, we test whether teachers with longer commute times are more likely to transfer schools or exit the district. Both descriptively and in regression results employing multiple fixed effects, we find that teachers with longer commutes are more likely to transfer schools within the district. Regression results show that each 5-minute increase in one-way commute time predicts an increase in transfer probability of 0.8 to 1.0 percentage points over most of the commute time distribution. We also find evidence that teachers with the longest commutes (i.e., 40+ minutes each way) have higher district exit probabilities. Moreover, teachers with longer commute times are absent from work more frequently and receive lower observation ratings. We discuss potential implications for local human resources policy and practice.

The "double-edged sword" effects of career support mentoring on newcomer turnover: How and when it helps or hurts.

Research on mentoring programs has portrayed them almost exclusively beneficial for newcomer retention. Drawing from the social cognitive model of career management and the boundaryless career perspective, we depart from this predominant view and examine the "double-edged sword" effects of career support mentoring on newcomer turnover. We propose that career support mentoring received by newcomers is likely to elicit both internal proactive socialization and external career self-management, which act as countervailing forces driving newcomer turnover in opposite directions (i.e., the retention pathway and the unintended detrimental pathway). We further propose that the organizational role of the mentor-supervisor versus nonsupervisor-is critical in determining which pathway prevails. We conducted two multiwave newcomer studies to test our hypotheses. In Study 1 (N = 495), we found that received career support mentoring was associated with lower newcomer turnover probability through the serial mediation of internal proactive socialization and perceived internal marketability but higher newcomer turnover probability through the serial mediation of external career self-management and perceived external marketability. In Study 2 (N = 193), we found that received career support mentoring was associated with lower newcomer turnover intention through the serial mediation of internal career advancement expectation and internal proactive socialization but higher newcomer turnover intention through the serial mediation of external career advancement expectation and external career self-management. In both studies, the unintended detrimental pathway was significant only when a newcomer's mentor was not a supervisor. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Improving financial performance through corporate governance management: empirical evidence from listed service firms in Nigeria

This study focused on corporate governance and financial performance of parastatals in Nigeria. Five (5) banks were selected which are First Bank Plc, United Bank of Africa Plc, Guarantee Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc and Fidelity Bank Plc. The data obtained to test and validate the hypotheses were from secondary sources concerning the variables of interest. However, the data generated are as follows; 2015 – 2022 (8 years) financial statements of five sampled banks which provided information about the variables tested and discussed. The data analysis revealed that measures of financial performance (ROA, BOD & BS), recorded means and standard deviations of 0.021966, 13.8, 13.8 and 0.0136177, 2.988868, 2.988868 respectively. The low standard deviation recorded by each of the measures of financial performance suggests that the return on asset of the respective sampled banks, members of their board of directors and board size have proximity with their respective average values. The respective minimum values recorded for ROA, BOD and BS are 0.0025847, 2 and 2; whereas the maximum values were 0.0561668, 19 and 19 respectively. This implies that the minimum of all the measures is not below 0.0561668 and the maximum did not exceed 19. It is concluded that Board composition which entails Board of Directors and Board Size has no significant effect of the financial performance of firms. The study recommended that efforts to improve corporate governance should focus on the value of the stock ownership of board members, since it is positively related to both future operating performance and to the probability of disciplinary management turnover in poorly performing banks.

Political Competition and Judicial Independence: How Courts Fill the Void When Legislatures Are Ineffective

Abstract What effect does political competition have in generating de facto judicial independence? We argue that competition in a legislature can drive increases in de facto judicial independence. Our game-theoretic model reveals that increased competition for seats impedes legislators’ ability to enact their platforms, regardless of government turnover probability, and increased legislative fractionalization also makes court intervention more likely. Utilizing a sample of democratic states, empirical evidence suggests when a country’s legislature is increasingly fractionalized among parties or has increasing seat turnover, we observe increases in de facto independence. This research provides new perspectives on the link between independence and competition.

A survival analysis approach to determine factors associated with non-retention of newly hired health workers in Iran

Background and aimOne of the main tasks of the healthcare human resource management is to maintain and retain professional staff. The high level turnover of professional staff may reduce the quality of healthcare service delivery. Therefore, this study investigated the factors associated with the turnover of the newly recruited healthcare professionals using survival analysis method in Iran.Materials and methodsThis historical cohort analysis comprised 6811 employees who began working at Mashhad University of Medical Sciences between 2005 and 2020. Employees recruited at any of the university’s units between the years 2005 to 2019 were included. We used appropriate descriptive indices and Log-rank test and the Cox proportional-hazards model to assess the staff turnover. A significance level of 0.05 was used for all tests.ResultsThe findings of the survival analysis showed that the probability of turnover in one year, two years, and five years of employment were 0.12, 0.16, and 0.27. Based on the findings of the Log-rank test, the probability of turnover in entire of the study period was not statistically different between male and female (p = 0.573), and likewise between employees with healthcare occupations and non-healthcare occupations (p = 0.351). Employees whose current workplace and birthplace were not similar had a significantly higher probability of turnover (p < 0.001). Accordingly, the Cox regression result showed, the risk of turnover for the singles was 1.22 times higher than the married. For the Ph.D degree was 3.23 times higher compared to those with a diploma or an associate degree, and for a bachelor’s or master’s degree was 2.06 times more likely to change their workplace than those with a diploma or an associate degree.ConclusionPolicies promoting the recruitment of native-born professionals, given priority to the married candidates than single ones, and/or recurring candidates to pledge to stay in the locality of recruitment site can increase the staff retention and reduce the costs of staff turnover including re-hiring, initial and on-the-job training, accommodation, and other extra living consumptions away from home and family.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ЛИЧНОСТНЫХ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИК ТАЛАНТЛИВЫХ СОТРУДНИКОВ НА ИХ ДОБРОВОЛЬНОЕ УВОЛЬНЕНИЕ

Despite the growing interest in talent management issues, there is still no consensus in theliterature regarding the characteristics and features of talented employees work behavior. One of the approaches stands out as an objective view postulating that there are a set of personal characteristics, which determine an employee as a talented one and influence their labor behavior. This research attempts to identify a list of these personal characteristics and assess their impact on work behavior. The list of characteristics incorporates personalitydimensions contained in the Big Five model. As a form of labor behavior is voluntary resignation. The research empirical base is the data on the talent management program at Sheremetyevo International Airport. We constructed econometric probit model, where the fact that a talented employee voluntarily quit during the first year of employment was used as an explanatory variable. The focus on resignations in the first year is related to an attempt to reduce the influence of factors that form sustainable attitudes towards job characteristics - satisfaction and loyalty to the organization. The set of independent variables is represented by organizational and socio-demographic characteristics in addition to personal characteristics.The results confirmed the hypotheses on the influence of higher values of openness to experience, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and extraversion, regardless of the organizational context, on the probability of voluntary turnover. The findings provide an empirical assessment of theobjective approach to talent in the Russian labor market and can be used for verificationin other corporate contexts or while trying to assess their sustainability with a longer work experience. In practical terms, the findings can be used to develop personalized talent management practices in Russian companies

Do Directors Respond to Stock Mispricing? Evidence from CEO Turnovers

AbstractThis article examines whether and how stock mispricing can affect the probability of CEO turnover. In a sample of 1,573 US public firms, I find that, after controlling for fundamental performance, a 1-standard-deviation negative uninformative stock price shock increases the likelihood of CEO turnover by 10%. The mispricing-turnover sensitivity is stronger at firms with an independent board, and a difference-in-difference analysis further supports that finding. Ancillary results suggest that independent directors’ career concerns may play a role in the response of independent boards to mispricing.

The Effect of Corporate Site Visits on Senior Executive Forced Turnover

ABSTRACT Using 2012–2019 Chinese stock market data, this study examined the impact of corporate site visits (CSVs) on senior executive forced turnover. We found that the number of CSVs is negatively associated with the probability of senior executive forced turnover. For more investor participants and more questions asked during CSVs, senior executive forced turnovers are less likely to occur. Institutional investors have a more significant impact on senior executive forced turnover. This effect is dominated by the non-state-owned enterprises or companies with poor performance, high asset tangibility, and weak insider power. The results can guide policymakers who regulate investor relations and informal corporate governance.

Political connections and managerial premiums in the labor market: Evidence from China

This study investigates whether and how chief financial officers' (CFOs') political backgrounds affect managerial premiums in the labor market. Previous studies have confirmed that political connections can have widespread firm-level benefits, but there has been limited focus on the influence of political connections on the labor market. Using a panel dataset from 2008 to 2020 in China, our empirical results indicate that CFOs’ political connections are positively correlated with higher compensation and the probability of voluntary turnover but negatively correlated with firm performance, particularly for connections at the central government level or those involving multiple government positions. Adopting a difference-in-differences model and an event study methodology, we determine that politically connected CFOs can bring bank credit and tax advantages to firms, thereby increasing firm value. Furthermore, such connection-led premiums are higher in less developed regions, and politically connected CFOs are more willing to relocate to such regions.

The impact of resilience on turnover among newly graduated nurses: A 1-year follow-up study.

This study aimed to analyse the impact of resilience on turnover among newly graduated nurses. Nurse turnover is a major issue in nurse management that results in economic losses and affects patient and nurse outcomes. Newly graduated nurses experience stress and burnout during their transition period, leaving their job due to contextual and personal factors. Nurses' resilience affects turnover directly and indirectly through the mediating effect of stress and burnout. We conducted a 1-year follow-up study to investigate factors influencing the turnover of newly graduated nurses. Survival analysis was used to analyse factors influencing the turnover. Turnover probability increased steadily and was approximately 0.20 within 2 years. Resilience was a significant factor affecting newly graduated nurses leaving their job in a short period of time. Newly graduated nurses' resilience is a significant factor influencing the turnover within a short period of time. Personal resources such as resilience and work environment should be considered for retaining newly graduated nurses. Nurse managers should recognize the impact of resilience on newly graduated nurses' turnover during the transitional period and establish strategies to enhance such resilience to promote a smooth transition and ultimately reduce turnover.

Factors affecting labour market transitions, sustained employment and sustained unemployment in individuals with intellectual disabilities.

Studies have reported difficulties in job acquisition and retention as well as unstable employment status among individuals with intellectual disabilities. Chi-square, one-way ANOVA, and binary logistic regression analysis were employed to investigate the factors that affect the labour market transition of 374 individuals with intellectual disabilities. There were significant differences in sex between the sustained unemployment group and the sustained employment groups; in educational level, between sustained employment and other groups; and in basic living security assistance received, between sustained unemployment and other groups. All psychological factors in the sustained employment group were higher than in the sustained unemployment group. Communication ability significantly affected sustained employment. Greater family support was associated with a lower turnover probability, and a higher educational level and greater family support increased the probability of retention. Developing family support systems may decrease the possibility of turnover and increase retention.

Driver turnover in the trucking industry: What's the cost of reducing driver quit rates?

This paper empirically examines the personal characteristics of truck drivers that are associated with a greater probability of driver turnover. Exploration of this phenomenon is significant in part because knowing who is likely to leave a trucking company helps decision makers in trucking firms identify effective measures needed to reduce driver turnover. Estimation results of a discrete driver quit choice model along with findings from estimating a driver wage equation, are used to predict the driver compensation needed to mitigate high driver turnover. These findings show that at the mean, drivers who stay on the job receive $54.25 (2018 dollars) more per week than drivers who leave, which translates to $2836.20 annually and is 6.02% percent above the mean wage of drivers who leave their job. The value of this annual wage differential is less than the mean value of the conservatively low estimate of $3654.72 (2018 dollars) computed in past research as the per driver cost of truck driver turnover. We interpret these results to suggest that it is cost effective for trucking companies to increase driver compensation. Indeed, truck driver wage trends do show a recent pattern of wage gains.

Determinants of voluntary turnover: A data-driven analysis for blue and white collar workers

BACKGROUND: There is a growing interest in HR-analytics because of its ability to analyze employee behavior based on HR data. Predicting voluntary turnover of employees is an important topic of study, both in academia and industry. OBJECTIVE: The current study analyzes determinants for turnover, distinguishing between blue and white collar workers. The turnover analyses are based on a dataset from a payroll company, in contrary to previous turnover studies that used survey and interview data. METHODS: The studied dataset contains demographic and work specific factors for more than 380000 employees in 15692 Belgian corporations. Logistic regression is used to estimate individual turnover probabilities, the goodness of the model is tested with the AUC method. RESULTS: The study confirms turnover determinants and differences between blue and white collar workers that were described in previous work based on survey and interview data. Additionally, the study exposes so far unstudied turnover determinants and differences between blue and white collar workers. Confirmed determinants are among others age, seniority, pay and work distance. New determinants are company car, meal vouchers, night work and sickness. Different relationships to turnover are revealed for blue and white collar workers based on gender, number of children, nationality and pay. CONCLUSIONS: The presented dataset-based approach has its merit in analyzing turnover: it enables to study actual turnover instead of turnover intentions, and reveals new turnover determinants and differences between blue and white collar workers.