Probability Of Sale Research Articles

Cost-effective and optimal pathways to selecting building microgrid components – The resilient, reliable, and flexible energy system under changing climate conditions

Amidst the changing climate conditions, electricity retailers-led demand response programs and the emergency backup power for possible grid outages are often discussed in isolation, although several underlying linkages exist, which are important for how the existing building stock evolves with the energy transition. This study navigates through the linkages while investigating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)-based building microgrid components and undertakes a comparative analysis of energy optimisation models with and without emergency diesel generators. It also examines the building energy system’s resilience, reliability, and flexibility by using OpenStudio and HOMER Grid to develop energy simulation and optimisation models and other probabilistic models for a chosen building archetype in Sydney, Australia. This study finds that excluding the emergency diesel generator will require a larger battery storage system, increasing LCOE from A$0.17/kWh to A$0.20/kWh across climate scenarios. However, the larger battery storage system increases the probability of surviving outages (> 4 h) by around 10 % across climate scenarios. The LCOE increases up to 45 % for outages up to 8 h across climate scenarios and up to 85 % for outages up to 12 h. Additionally, for the building archetype, the probability of grid purchase (below the current average) is 0.78 in 2030, which drops to 0.55 in 2050. The probability of grid sales (above the current average) also drops from 0.69 to 0.46. Thus, while the narratives around the building energy system’s flexibility overstate the electricity exchange between the building and the grid, this study finds that increasing the on-site production utilisation rate and larger battery throughput contributes to demand response application and flexibility.

Model for optimizing lender's decision on dealing with collateral of defaulted mortgage

AbstractIn this article, we describe a comprehensive model for obtaining a critical gross recovery rate (GRR) for the short sale of a defaulted mortgage. Our model includes the following factors: settlement period, settlement cost, discounted sale/auction price, opportunity cost, failure probability of the short sale, and lender's willingness for the short sale. The results show that using the short sale yields a lower settlement cost, shorter settlement period, but higher loss given default (LGD). The real GRR of a short sale is about 8%–9% less than the critical GRR calculated from our model. This means the lender's willingness for the short sale is high in reality. The sensitivity analyses show that the lender's likelihood of approving a short sale is low if the settlement cost, contract rate, interest rate, and failure probability of the short sale are high. The greater the expected LGD of a foreclosure, the stronger the lender's willingness to approve the short sale. Also, a higher GRR of short sale leads to a lower expected LGD of short sale. This increases the probability of approval for the short sale. Finally, the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program helped struggling homeowners successfully use a short sale as an alternative to foreclosure, but the HAFA program became less effective as housing prices went up. Our model and analyses should help lenders make the optimal decision about how to efficiently deal with the collateral from a defaulted mortgage to mitigate their LGD.

Optimal Order Quantity for Perishable Goods Considering Declining Sale Probability as Quality Deteriorates

Optimal Order Quantity for Perishable Goods Considering Declining Sale Probability as Quality Deteriorates

Auctions with Endogenous Initiation

ABSTRACTWe study initiation of takeover auctions by potential buyers and the seller. A bidder's indication of interest reveals that she is optimistic about the target. If bidders' values have a substantial common component, as in takeover battles between financial bidders, this effect disincentivizes bidders from indicating interest, and auctions are seller‐initiated. Conversely, in private‐value auctions, such as battles between strategic bidders, equilibria can feature both seller‐ and bidder‐initiated auctions, with the likelihood of the latter decreasing in commonality of values and the probability of a forced sale by the seller. We also relate initiation to bids and auction outcomes.

The impact of sales environment competitiveness on salespeople’s inclination towards unethical sales practices: The mediating role of self-control depletion and the moderating role of ethical leadership

The study aims to explore the relationship between the sales environment competitiveness and the tendency towards unethical sales practices among salespeople who work in a demanding sales environment. Drawing on the conservation of resources (COR) theory, this study proposes that the perceived sales environment competition leads to self-control depletion, which, in turn, increases the likelihood of unfair sales practices. The study also suggests that ethical leadership can mitigate the aforementioned relationships. Data were collected through self-reported questionnaires from 379 salespeople working in the retail banking sector of Pakistan, using a time-lagged research design and structural equation modelling for analysis. Findings reveal that an increase in perceived sales environment competition leads to a higher probability of unethical sales practices due to self-control depletion. Ethical leadership plays a crucial role in constraining the influence of the perceived sales environment competition on self-control depletion. The study contributes to the sales ethics literature by investigating unethical sales practices from the perspective of sales environment competitiveness in contrast to the prevailing research that largely emphasizes on organizational or individual-level factors. Practically, this study suggests organizational decision makers and managers to consider the influence of a demanding sales environment and the psychological mechanisms that incline salespeople towards unethical sales practices; they should then design the appropriate mechanisms to control this behaviour. For instance, this can be achieved by incentivizing ethical sales practices or fostering a strong ethical culture within the organization to internalize sales ethics. Moreover, this study recommends sales manager to maintain high ethical standards to prevent the negative effect of a competitive sales environment on the ethical behaviour of salespeople. JEL Classification: M50

Residential Marketing Duration: Film Studios as Neighborhood Sales Accelerators

One measure of residential market liquidity is the speed at which houses sell. Most research about listing duration focuses on agent marketing activities, while external neighborhood changes that could influence a house sale are usually only examined in terms of their price impacts. This paper considers how opening a cultural industry facility influences the likelihood of sale and marketing duration for houses in surrounding neighborhoods. We employ a probit model to quantify the effect of opening large film studios in the Atlanta metropolitan area on the probability of sale and a hazard model to explore the influence on marketing duration in nearby neighborhoods. A difference-in-differences approach allows us to compare market results before and after the studio openings. We find that the likelihood of sale increases while marketing duration decreases for houses located within 1.5 mi of a large film studio once it opens. Thus, the film studios exert positive externalities on the surrounding residential neighborhoods. The positive response may be attributable to film industry workers attracted by convenience and industry buzz as well as other house buyers who are excited about being associated with the film industry or believe the presence of the studio generally improves the neighborhood.

Duration‐dependent transaction tax effects on sellers and their behaviors

AbstractWe identify three interrelated behavioral outcomes of the duration‐dependent seller's stamp duty (SSD) implemented in the Singaporean private housing market and examine how it reduces market liquidity. An SSD lowers lock‐in home sellers’ opportunity cost of holding their properties through the lock‐in period thresholds. Consequently, their selling prices are higher than non–lock‐in home sellers. An SSD lowers their probability of home sales; the magnitude of this effect depends on the SSD's tax rate and tax rate deduction across a threshold. Moreover, an SSD drives some lock‐in home sellers to lease out the properties at lowerents.

내부자거래와 정보비대칭의 관계에 관한 연구

This study analyzes the pre-transaction period accounting earnings-stock price relation among companies with and without insider trade(insider sell and buy) to find out whether information asymmetry increase potential insider’s profit, thereby, motivate insider to trade their own stocks.
 In order to figure out correct relationship between insider trading and information asymmetry, this study recognize succesive insider trading, and use only first trade observation of succetive insider sell and buy, respectively. Therefore the total number of stocks and the first trade of each successive insider tradings are respectively presumed as an insider trading volume and as an observation of the the succesive insider trading.
 Also, all ownership information of directors and major shareholder is cellected from DART using Python, and quarterly financial information is used for our analysis to alleviate the possible problem coming from assumption of period of insider trading.
 The analysis period is from 2012 to 2018, and non-financial companies among listed companies on the Korea Stock Exchange and KOSDAQ are targeted.
 Empirical analysis shows as follow.
 First, it was found that the greater the over-estimate of earnings-return relation incurs greater probability of occurrence of insider stock sales and greater insider sales stock volume. These relationships are larger and more significant than those between insider trading and future earnings level, future earnings growth, and future stock return, which represent insiders' information advantage on future prospects of the firm. Second, the effect of estimation bias of earnings-return relation on the probability of insider sales was stronger and more immediate than those of insider purchases. The positive relationship between future prospects and insider trading, reported in previous studies, was stronger in insiders purchases than in insider sales.
 This study directly analyzed whether information asymmetry between insiders and external stakeholders plays a major role of insider trading, comparing pre-period earning-return relation estimates of insider trading firms with those of control firms. It is also meaningful in that it shows that the information asymmetry difference between insiders and external stakeholders can have different effects on insider trading for different properties of insider sales and purchase.

The effects of visual technology on price discovery for residential listings and transactions

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of visual technology on the price discovery process in listings of residential properties in Singapore from 2015 to 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe authors empirically model the effects of 360 virtual tours and drone video on four dimensions in price discovery – buyers’ arrival rate, sale probability, transaction prices and time-on-market – using a comprehensive data set for the residential properties in Singapore.FindingsThe analysis shows that the availability of virtual tours or drone video in a listing increases the arrival rate from potential buyers, the probability of a successful sale and the selling price. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that technologically enhanced tools improve the quality of information and the marketability of property. However, listings with virtual tours tend to be associated with longer marketing time, which is consistent with the prediction of the information overload hypothesis.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper extends the housing and price discovery literature by examining how technologically enabled new information affects property transactions.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to consider the impact of drone video on property market outcome.

Hành vi của người mua nhà trước những tín hiệu đáng ngờ của ngôi nhà

The study aims to analyze the behaviour of house buyers in response to suspicious signals of houses for sale, including a surprisingly low listing price and a lengthy listing time. The authors apply a three-stage research method based on a survey data set of 448 buyers who have just bought self-built single-family houses in Ho Chi Minh City's urban area from June 2017 to May 2018. The results of the study found that a surprisingly low listing price not only does not attract and create an auction war among buyers, but it also creates a suspicion signal for the buyer, and as a result, the house becomes harder to sell with a lower transaction price and prolong the listing time. Finally, the Cox Proportional Hazards model results show that the first listing month provides the best performance with the highest probability of sale, but when the listing time is extended, it will also cause buyer suspicion and thus decrease the saleability of the house.

Scientific and methodological substantiation of the design of state programs for the provision of temporary housing to the population affected by aggression RF

The article is devoted to finding ways to solve the problem of providing housing for the population of Ukraine affected by the military conflict in Russia as soon as possible. The institutional preconditions and macroeconomic consequences of slowing down the implementation of the country's reconstruction projects are considered. An analysis of the proposals of leading economists set out in the Essay on the reconstruction of Ukraine. Three fundamental principles of ensuring effective recovery of the Ukrainian economy and reconstruction of damaged and destroyed housing are formulated and their essence is revealed. The author's proposals on the formation of temporary housing funds for internally displaced persons are substantiated and their contribution to restoring the balance of the primary housing market is proved. The causes of imbalances in the construction market of Ukraine are summarized. A methodical approach to the quantitative assessment of the price-quality ratio of housing in new buildings in Ukraine is proposed. 10 criteria were proposed to determine whether new homes meet market requirements. Within each of the criteria, gradation features were substantiated, which are measured in ordinal and nominal scales. A method for calculating the integrated quality indicator of facilities under construction based on data reduction by the method of main factors has been developed. The classification of housing supply in the primary real estate market according to the system of price - quality criteria, the methodological basis of which was neural network modeling using the Kohonen layer. Given the significance of the results obtained, the classification features that allow to separate those objects of market supply that have a low probability of sale in the next 6 to 12 months are justified. An easy-to-use algorithm for the formation of temporary housing funds for internally displaced persons from apartments-factors of market imbalances is proposed.

Horizontal and vertical differentiation in comic art auctions

AbstractThis study investigates how vertical (quality‐related) and horizontal (taste‐related) differentiation influences the probability of sale and market price of auctioned artworks. We explore a new art market, namely, original comic works. By including unsold lots, we correct the selection bias commonly found in the literature. We propose an original set of variables accounting for vertical differentiation in this market (i.e., commercial and critical successes, the artist's reputation, role, and recognition). Vertically differentiated artworks do not sell better, but warrant a premium. Regarding horizontal differentiation, newly explored variables have a significant effect on sales and (often) auction prices.

Determinants of COVID-19 Impact on the Private Sector: A Multi-Country Analysis Based on Survey Data

Our paper aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on private sector companies in terms of sales, production, finance and employment. We check whether the country and industry in which companies operate, government financial support and loan access matter to the behaviour and performances of companies during the pandemic. We use a microdata set from a worldwide survey of more than 15,729 companies conducted between April and September 2020 by the World Bank. Logistic regression is used to assess which factors increase the likelihood of businesses suffering due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that COVID-19 negatively impacts the performance of companies in almost all countries analysed, but a stronger effect is observed among firms from developing countries. The pandemic is more harmful to firms providing services than those representing the manufacturing sector. Due to the pandemic, firms suffer mainly in sales and liquidity decrease rather than employment reduction. The increase in the number of temporary workers is an important factor that significantly reduces the probability of sales, exports or supply decline. The analysis results indicate policy tools supporting enterprises during the pandemic, such as increasing the flexibility of the labour market or directing aid to developing countries.

Time on the Market and Probability of Sale Using a Generalized Geometric Hazard Model

Abstract This study makes two main contributions to the applied econometrics literature. First, it shows how the all-important marginal effects for time on the market and probability of sale can be obtained from any hazard model. Second, it extends the generalization of the geometric due to Gómez-Déniz, E. 2010. “Another Generalization of the Geometric Distribution.” Test 19: 399–415 to include covariates for use in the estimation of time on the market and probability of sale regressions in real estate, thus creating an entirely new hazard model based on probability of sale rather than time on the market. For the generalized geometric we develop expressions for the marginal effects (with approximate standard errors) for both the probability of sale and time on the market. This formulation allows the impact of changes in independent variables on both the probability of sale and time on the market to be determined from a single regression model. For comparison, we also obtain these two sets of marginal effects for the popular Weibull hazard model. The geometric, generalized geometric, and Weibull hazard models, along with two sets of marginal effects for each, are estimated using data on condominium listings in a metropolitan area in Florida.

The Effects of Visual Technology on Price Discovery for Residential Listings and Transactions

This paper examines the effect of visual technology on the price discovery process in listings of residential properties. We empirically model the effects of 360 virtual tours and drone video on four dimensions in price discovery — buyers’ arrival rate, sale probability, transaction prices and time-on-market — using a comprehensive dataset for the residential properties in Singapore. The analysis shows that the availability of virtual tours or drone video in a listing increases the arrival rate from potential buyers, the probability of a successful sale, and the selling price. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that technologically enhanced tools improve the quality of information and the marketability of property. However, listings with virtual tours tend to be associated with longer marketing time, which is consistent with the prediction of the information overload hypothesis. This paper extends the housing and price discovery literature by examining how technologically-enabled new information affects property transactions.

When bargaining meets auctions: assessing the effect of best offer on eBay auctions

ABSTRACT In this paper, we apply a recently popularized methodology called ‘matched listings’ to eBay API data to study the effect of enabling eBay’s bargaining feature on auction outcomes. Our results indicate that enabling the bargaining feature increases sale probability by 3.17%. In addition, hypothesis testing indicates this estimate is consistent with eBay’s claim where enabling bargaining increases sale probability by 5%. Finally, we find that enabling bargaining has no impact on transaction price. We provide an innovative evaluation of whether the matched listings methodology works well. We find that this methodology is prone to endogeneity with longer time windows, causing a downward bias when estimating the treatment effect of enabling bargaining.

Reserve Price Signaling with Public Information: Evidence from Online Auto Auctions

This paper studies the problem of information provision in auctions. The linkage principle indicates that credibly revealing private information would benefit the seller, which implies that a seller should prefer a public reserve price to a secret one if the reserve price could reveal her private information. However, information revelation may backfire if the seller's information is not verifiable, and the reserve price works as a signaling device. In this paper, we consider an auction model in which a seller's choice of reserve price signals her private information about the object's quality. We show that such a signaling incentive could decrease the seller's profit and probability of sale in equilibrium, with a larger impact when the seller's private information is more precise relative to the public information announced by a third party. We estimate the reserve price signaling model using a novel dataset from a large online auto auction platform. We find that the signaling incentive could cost the seller 4% of her profit, and decrease the probability of sale by 15 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations suggest that a secret reserve price can improve both the seller's profit and probability of sale, especially when the signaling incentive is strong. Our findings support the prevalent use of secret reserve prices in practice, contrary to the predictions of linkage principle.

Optimal Pricing with a Single Point

We study the following fundamental data-driven pricing problem. How can/should a decision-maker price its product based on observations at a single historical price? The decision-maker optimizes over (potentially randomized) pricing policies to maximize the worst-case ratio of the revenue it can garner compared to an oracle with full knowledge of the distribution of values, when the latter is only assumed to belong to broad non-parametric set. In particular, our framework applies to the widely used regular and monotone non-decreasing hazard rate (mhr) classes of distributions. For settings where the seller knows the exact probability of sale associated with one historical price or only a confidence interval for it, we fully characterize optimal performance and near-optimal pricing algorithms that adjust to the information at hand. As examples, against mhr distributions, we show that it is possible to guarantee 85% of oracle performance if one knows that half of the customers have bought at the historical price, and if only 1% of the customers bought, it still possible to guarantee 51% of oracle performance. The framework we develop leads to new insights on the value of information for pricing, as well as the value of randomization. In addition, it is general and allows to characterize optimal deterministic mechanisms and incorporate uncertainty in the probability of sale.

On the Likelihood of a Transaction and the Amount of Time Provided the Broker to Sell Property

This work empirically investigates the effect of the amount of time provided the broker to market property (listing contract length) on the likelihood of a successful marketing attempt. Do shorter listing contracts increase broker motivation or can contracts be so short that marketing efforts are unlikely to result in a successful transaction? Empirical results of this study demonstrate that when the broker is provided a longer listing contract, the likelihood of a successful transaction increases - but at a decreasing rate. This result suggests that home sellers face a tradeoff when choosing contract length. Longer contracts provide more time to arrange a successful sale, but reduction in broker motivation reduces the probability of sale as contracts lengthen.

Scalable relaxation techniques to solve stochastic dynamic multi-product pricing problems with substitution effects

In many businesses, firms are selling different types of products, which share mutual substitution effects in demand. To compute effective pricing strategies is challenging as the sales probabilities of each of a firm’s products can also be affected by the prices of potential substitutes. In this paper, we analyze stochastic dynamic multi-product pricing models for the sale of perishable goods. To circumvent the limitations of time-consuming optimal solutions for highly complex models, we propose different relaxation techniques, which allow to reduce the size of critical model components, such as the state space, the action space, or the set of potential sales events. Our heuristics are able to decrease the size of those components by forming corresponding clusters and using subsets of representative elements. Using numerical examples, we verify that our heuristics make it possible to dramatically reduce the computation time while still obtaining close-to-optimal expected profits. Further, we show that our heuristics are (i) flexible, (ii) scalable, and (iii) can be arbitrarily combined in a mutually supportive way.