Probability Of Outcome Research Articles

Maternal and perinatal risk factors associated with congenital syphilis.

Mother-to-child transmission of syphilis remains an important global public health problem. Untreated intrauterine infection may result in adverse events for the fetus or newborn (NB). Maternal risk factors, such as prenatal care, early diagnosis, and appropriate treatment, significantly impact the likelihood of vertical transmission of syphilis. The purpose of this review is to evaluate maternal risk factors for congenital syphilis and the characteristics of exposed NB. A total of 14 studies were evaluated, including 8 cohort studies, 4 cross-sectional and 2 control cases. A total of 12,230 women were included, with confirmed or highly probable congenital syphilis outcome, and 2285 NB. The studies evaluated risk factors for congenital syphilis, which were maternal, demographic, obstetric factors and characteristics of the exposed NB. Included in the risk factors studied, inadequate prenatal care and late onset, as well as inadequate or late treatment of maternal syphilis were significant risk factors for the outcome of congenital syphilis. When the time set of maternal diagnosis was correlated with neonatal infection, there was a tendency to worsen prognosis (more infected NB) in women diagnosed later in pregnancy, as well as in women who underwent few prenatal consultations and inadequate treatment. Women with recent syphilis with high VDRL titres had a higher rate of vertical transmission. The prior history of syphilis with adequate treatment was identified as a protective factor, resulting in lower rates of congenital syphilis. Among the epidemiological and demographic aspects surveyed, it was observed that young age, lower schooling, unemployment, low family income and no fixed residence were associated with higher risk of congenital syphilis. The association of syphilis with adverse socio-economic conditions and inadequate prenatal care suggests that the improvement of the population's living conditions and equitable access to quality health services may have an impact on the reduction of congenital syphilis.

Association of Epileptiform Activity With Outcomes in Toxic-Metabolic Encephalopathy.

To quantify EA burden in patients with TME and its association with neurologic outcomes. This is a retrospective study. A cohort of patients with TME and EA (positive) were age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score matched to a cohort of TME patients without EA (control). Univariate analysis compared EA-positive patients against controls. Multivariable logistical regression adjusting for underlying disease etiology was performed to examine the relationship between EA burden and probability of poor neurologic outcome (modified Rankin Score [mRS] 4-6) at discharge. Consecutive admissions to inpatient floors or ICUs that underwent continuous electroencephalography (cEEG) monitoring at a single center between 2012 and 2019. Inclusion criteria were 1) patients with TME diagnosis, 2) age greater than 18 years, and 3) greater than or equal to 16 hours of cEEG. Patients with acute brain injury and cardiac arrest were excluded. Poor neurologic outcome defined by mRS (mRS 4-6). One hundred sixteen patients were included, 58 with EA and 58 controls without EA, where matching was performed on age and APACHE-II score. The median age was 66 (Q1-Q3, 57-75) and median APACHE II score was 18 (Q1-Q3, 13-22). Overall cohort discharge mortality was 22% and 70% had a poor neurologic outcome. Peak EA burden was defined as the 12-hour window of recording with the highest prevalence of EAs. In multivariable analysis adjusted for Charlson Comorbidity Index and primary diagnosis, presence of EAs was associated with poor outcome (odds ratio 3.89; CI [1.05-14.2], p = 0.041). Increase in peak EA burden from 0% to 100% increased probability of poor discharge neurologic outcome by 30%. Increasing burden of EA is associated with worse discharge outcomes in patients with TME. Future studies are needed to determine whether short-term treatment with anti-seizure medications while medically treating the underlying metabolic derangement improves outcomes.

Purchase restrictions as a tobacco control policy: An analysis of the effect on adverse birth outcomes

The association between smoking during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes is well known. Various tobacco control policies, however, may improve birth outcomes differently. We first study the effects of legal restrictions on purchasing tobacco products on adverse birth outcomes. The main outcome measure of interest is the causal effect of a purchase restriction on tobacco products on the probability of an adverse birth outcome. Our identification strategy utilizes the variation in the minimum legal sales age of tobacco products over time and across geographic regions within the US during 2013–2018 in a two-way fixed effects framework. We used restricted-use birth records of all live births in the US during that period by birthing people who were 18–21 years at delivery. We find that an age-based purchase restriction on tobacco products causes the incidence of adverse birth outcome to reduce by 9.5%. Our results suggest that purchase restrictions are highly effective in reducing adverse birth outcomes in deliveries by birthing people in the 18–21 age group and provide additional support for the campaign for further increasing the minimum legal sales age of tobacco products.

Ethical AI does not have to be like finding a black cat in a dark room

Ethical AI does not have to be like finding a black cat in a dark room

Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation

ObjectivesTo identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties. Study Design and SettingWe conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots). ResultsWe validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%–87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%–78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors. ConclusionThe validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use.

Clinical outcome after pencil beam scanning proton therapy and dysphagia/xerostomia NTCP calculations of proton and photon radiotherapy delivered to patients with cancer of the major salivary glands.

The purpose of this study is to report the oncological outcome, observed toxicities and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) calculation for pencil beam scanning (PBS) PT delivered to salivary gland tumour (SGT) patients. We retrospectively reviewed 26 SGT patients treated with PBSPT (median dose, 67.5 Gy(RBE)) between 2005 and 2020 at our institute. Toxicities were recorded according to CTCAEv.4.1. Overall survival (OS), local control (LC), locoregional control (LRC) and distant control (DC) were estimated. For all patients, a photon plan was re-calculated in order to assess the photon/proton NTCP. With a median follow-up time of 46 months (range, 3-118), 5 (19%), 2 (8%), 3 (12%) and 2 (8%) patients presented after PT with distant, local, locoregional failures and death, respectively. The estimated 4 year OS, LC, LCR and DC were 90%, 90%, 87 and 77%, respectively. Grade 3 late toxicity was observed in 2 (8%) patients. The estimated 4 year late high-grade (≥3) toxicity-free survival was 78.4%. The calculated mean difference of NTCP-values after PBSPT and VMAT plans for developing Grade 2 or 3 xerostomia were 3.8 and 2.9%, respectively. For Grade 2-3 dysphagia, the grade corresponding percentages were 8.6 and 1.9%. Not using an up-front model-based approach to select patients for PT, only 40% of our patients met the Dutch eligibility criteria. Our data suggest excellent oncological outcome and low late toxicity rates for patients with SGT treated with PBSPT. NTCP calculation showed a substantial risk reduction for Grade 2 or 3 xerostomia and dysphagia in some SGT patients, while for others, no clear benefit was seen with protons, suggesting that comparative planning should be performed routinely for these patients. We have reported that the clinical outcome of SGT patients treated with PT and compared IMPT to VMAT for the treatment of salivary gland tumour and have observed that protons delivered significantly less dose to organs at risks and were associated with less NTCP for xerostomia and dysphagia. Noteworthy, not using an up-front model-based approach, only 40% of our patients met the Dutch eligibility criteria.

Managing for ecological resilience of pinyon–juniper ecosystems during an era of woodland contraction

AbstractDryland woodland ecosystems worldwide have experienced widespread drought‐ and heat‐related tree mortality events coupled with extreme wildfire behavior. In contrast to other forest types where the emphasis has been on the silvicultural enhancement of ecosystem resilience and restoration of structural heterogeneity, limited frameworks are available for management to improve drought resilience in semiarid woodlands. This challenge is especially acute in pinyon–juniper woodlands, a dominant vegetation type across western North America that has experienced extensive tree die‐off over the past several decades while simultaneously undergoing expansion in portions of its range. In this paper, we describe the critical and urgent need to manage for future drought resilience in these highly vulnerable ecosystems and synthesize the current state of knowledge on how to enhance woodland resilience to drought coupled with high temperatures and associated disturbances. We present a landscape prioritization framework for guiding management goals and practices that requires prioritization of efforts based on the need for action and the probability of a positive outcome. Four guiding factors include historical woodland structure and drivers of long‐term landscape change, current vegetation structure and composition, future climate suitability, and habitat and resource value. In summarizing the strength of evidence supporting our recommendations, we identify critical knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of adaptive management strategies that reflect current uncertainties. This will ultimately allow for improved management of diverse semiarid woodland ecosystems that are undergoing substantial changes due to past and present land use, biological invasions, and climate change.

Predicting the probability of good neurological outcome after in-hospital cardiac arrest based on prearrest factors: validation of the good outcome following attempted resuscitation 2 (GO-FAR 2) score.

The Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation (GO-FAR) 2 score is a prognostic tool developed to support decision-making for do-not-attempt-resuscitation (DNAR) orders by predicting neurological outcomes after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) based on prearrest variables. However, this scoring system requires further validation. We aimed to validate the GO-FAR 2 score for predicting good neurological outcome in Korean patients with IHCA. A single-centre registry of adult patients with IHCA from 2013 to 2017 was analysed. The primary outcome was discharge with good neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category score of 1 or 2). The patients were divided into four categories according to the GO-FAR 2 score: very poor (≥ 5), poor (2-4), average (-3 to 1), and above-average (< -3) likelihood of good neurological outcome. Of 1,011 patients (median age, 65years), 63.1% were men. The rate of good neurological outcome was 16.0%. The proportions of patients categorised as having very poor, poor, average, and above-average probability of good neurological outcome were 3.9%, 18.3%, 70.2%, and 7.6%, respectively. In each category, good neurological outcome was observed in 0%, 1.1%, 16.8%, and 53.2%, respectively. Among patients in below-average categories (very poor + poor, GO-FAR 2 score ≥ 2), only 0.9% had good outcome. GO-FAR 2 score ≥ 2 showed a sensitivity of 98.8% and a negative predictive value of 99.1% in predicting good neurological outcome. The GO-FAR 2 score can predict neurological outcome after IHCA. In particular, GO-FAR 2 score ≥ 2 may support decision-making for DNAR orders.

Financial Performance and Earnings Per Share of Consumer Goods Manufacturing Companies Quoted in Nigeria

Positive and continuous growth in Earnings per Share (EPS) has always been the desire of every investor, especially equity investors, and in measuring it, Financial Performance (FP) has been viewed to have a great impact on EPS, thus the aim is to examine the impact if any and to what extent that financial performance has on EPS. The adopted research design for this study was Ex-post facto with the objective of examining the effect of FP on EPS of Consumer Goods Manufacturing Companies (CGMC) Quoted in Nigeria. The population used for this study comprises 12 CGMC quoted on the Nigeria Exchange Group (NGX) as of April 30, 2021, while the size of the sample was purposely selected. The audited annual reports provided the data used for the companies that were sampled for the given period of 11 years (2009 – 2019). The data relied on the fact that the financial statements statutory audit in the annual report has been audited, guaranteeing its validity and reliability. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools. The outcome of the test showed that the effect of ROA on EPS is positive and significant but ROE, on the other hand, has an insignificantly negative effect on the EPS of CGMC Quoted in Nigeria with a probability outcome of 0.0015 and 0.9487 respectively. The results of the test attest to these and are as follows: R² = 0.077411, Adj.R² = 0.063107 and F-Statistics = 5.411958, and P-value of 0.005534. The Study concluded that FP has both positively significant and negatively insignificant effects on the EPS of CGMC Quoted in Nigeria. The recommendation of this study is that equity investors and financial analysts should look beyond FP in taking their investment decisions.

Examining Predictors of Favorable 90-day Outcome in Stroke Patients with Active Cancer Undergoing Endovascular Therapy (P8-5.022)

<h3>Objective:</h3> To determine covariates associated with long-term outcomes for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) who had active cancer and underwent endovascular therapy. <h3>Background:</h3> Intraarterial therapy (IAT) is the standard of care for all AIS patients, even those with active cancer. Many studies show poor outcomes for patients with active malignancy compared to those without who undergo IAT. Few studies, however, have identified other characteristics that may contribute to 90-day modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores for patients with active cancer undergoing IAT. <h3>Design/Methods:</h3> This retrospective study included patients (age ≥ 18) admitted from 07/18–10/20 with AIS, treated by IAT, and had active cancer. The primary outcome was 90-day mRS; secondary outcomes were complications. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine optimal admission national institutes of health scores (NIHSS) to obtain a 90-day mRS of 0–2. Alpha=0.05. <h3>Results:</h3> There were 53 patients; 42% had a 90-day mRS of 0–2 and 58% had 3–6. The median (interquartile range) age was 71 years (64–81), 58% were male, and the median admission NIHSS was 12 (6–17). Compared to patients who had a 90-day mRS of 3–6, patients with a 0–2 had a significantly lower median admission NIHSS (6.5 (3–15) vs. 15 (9–22), p=0.006), more had IV-tPA (41% vs. 13%, p=0.02), and significantly less experienced a thromboembolic event during their hospital course (17% vs. 57%, p=0.004). No patients with an mRS of 0–2 had a symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, respectively (0% vs. 10%, p=0.13). The NIHSS cut-off for predicting a favorable 90-day mRS was 8.2 and indicated a moderate fit. <h3>Conclusions:</h3> This data suggests that both admission NIHSS and thromboembolic events were strong predictors of 90-day outcomes. Using an NIHSS cut-off of 8.2 for patients with active cancer in determining who should receive IAT may increase the probability of a favorable 90-day outcome. <b>Disclosure:</b> Dr. Pirahanchi has nothing to disclose. Constance McGraw has nothing to disclose. Dr. Bartt has nothing to disclose. David Bar-Or has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as an officer or member of the Board of Directors for Ampio Pharmaceuticals. David Bar-Or has stock in Ampio Pharmaceuticals.

Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody Use and COVID-19 Infection Outcomes

Evidence on the effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 therapies across a diverse population with varied risk factors is needed to inform clinical practice. To assess the safety of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (nMAbs) for the treatment of COVID-19 and their association with adverse outcomes. This retrospective cohort study included 167 183 patients from a consortium of 4 health care systems based in California, Minnesota, Texas, and Utah. The study included nonhospitalized patients 12 years and older with a positive COVID-19 laboratory test collected between November 9, 2020, and January 31, 2022, who met at least 1 emergency use authorization criterion for risk of a poor outcome. Four nMAb products (bamlanivimab, bamlanivimab-etesevimab, casirivimab-imdevimab, and sotrovimab) administered in the outpatient setting. Clinical and SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence data and propensity-adjusted marginal structural models were used to assess the association between treatment with nMAbs and 4 outcomes: all-cause emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalization, death, and a composite of hospitalization or death within 14 days and 30 days of the index date (defined as the date of the first positive COVID-19 test or the date of referral). Patient index dates were categorized into 4 variant epochs: pre-Delta (November 9, 2020, to June 30, 2021), Delta (July 1 to November 30, 2021), Delta and Omicron BA.1 (December 1 to 31, 2021), and Omicron BA.1 (January 1 to 31, 2022). Among 167 183 patients, the mean (SD) age was 47.0 (18.5) years; 95 669 patients (57.2%) were female at birth, 139 379 (83.4%) were White, and 138 900 (83.1%) were non-Hispanic. A total of 25 241 patients received treatment with nMAbs. Treatment with nMAbs was associated with lower odds of ED visits within 14 days (odds ratio [OR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.68-0.85), hospitalization within 14 days (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.45-0.59), and death within 30 days (OR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.10-0.20). The association between nMAbs and reduced risk of hospitalization was stronger in unvaccinated patients (14-day hospitalization: OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.44-0.59), and the associations with hospitalization and death were stronger in immunocompromised patients (hospitalization within 14 days: OR, 0.31 [95% CI, 0.24-0.41]; death within 30 days: OR, 0.13 [95% CI, 0.06-0.27]). The strength of associations of nMAbs increased incrementally among patients with a greater probability of poor outcomes; for example, the ORs for hospitalization within 14 days were 0.58 (95% CI, 0.48-0.72) among those in the third (moderate) risk stratum and 0.41 (95% CI, 0.32-0.53) among those in the fifth (highest) risk stratum. The association of nMAb treatment with reduced risk of hospitalizations within 14 days was strongest during the Delta variant epoch (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.31-0.43) but not during the Omicron BA.1 epoch (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.68-2.47). These findings were corroborated in the subset of patients with viral genomic data. Treatment with nMAbs was associated with a significant mortality benefit in all variant epochs (pre-Delta: OR, 0.16 [95% CI, 0.08-0.33]; Delta: OR, 0.14 [95% CI, 0.09-0.22]; Delta and Omicron BA.1: OR, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.03-0.35]; and Omicron BA.1: OR, 0.13 [95% CI, 0.02-0.93]). Potential adverse drug events were identified in 38 treated patients (0.2%). In this study, nMAb treatment for COVID-19 was safe and associated with reductions in ED visits, hospitalization, and death, although it was not associated with reduced risk of hospitalization during the Omicron BA.1 epoch. These findings suggest that targeted risk stratification strategies may help optimize future nMAb treatment decisions.

Two-Stage PNN–SVM Ensemble for Higher Education Admission Prediction

In this paper, we investigate the methods used to evaluate the admission chances of higher education institutions’ (HEI) entrants as a crucial factor that directly influences the admission efficiency, quality of education results, and future students’ life-long trajectories. Due to the conditions of uncertainty surrounding the decision-making process that determines the admission of entrants and the inability to independently assess the probability of potential outcomes, we propose the application of the machine learning (ML) model as an algorithm that provides decision-making support. The proposed model includes the support vector machine (SVM) stacking ensemble, which expands the input data set obtained using the Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). The basic algorithms include four SVM ensemble methods with different kernel functions and Logistic Regression (LR) as a meta-algorithm. We evaluate the accuracy of the developed model in three stages: comparison with existing ML methods; comparison with a single-based model that comprises it; and comparison with a similar stacking model and with other types of ensembles (boosting, begging). The results of the designed two-stage PNN–SVM ensemble model provided an accuracy of 94% and possessed acquired superiority in the comparison stages. The obtained results enable the use of the presented model in the subsequent stages of the development of an intellectual support system for decision making regarding entrants’ admission.

Capturing twenty years of change in ecosystem services provided by coastal Massachusetts habitats

Accounting for ecosystem services across expansive and diverse landscapes presents unique challenges to managers tasked with navigating and synthesizing the social-ecological dynamics of varied stakeholder interests and ecological functions. One approach to this challenge is through expert based matrices that provide valuations for specific service-habitat combinations. In this study, we combine a literature review with local expert input to build an ecosystem service capacity matrix for the Massachusetts Bays National Estuary Partnership (MassBays). We then apply this matrix to a custom conglomerate land cover data set and a habitat connectivity analysis to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics in select ecosystem services of coastal habitats across MassBays from 1996 to 2016. In 1996, saltmarsh was the primary provider of coastal ecosystem services, representing roughly 60% of the total service capacity. More specifically, high elevation saltmarsh was top-ranked, followed by tidal flats, seagrass, low elevation saltmarsh and unclassified saltmarsh. This distribution of service provisioning varied considerably among the five regions of MassBays, reflecting the unique habitat mixes and local expert valuations of each. Although saltmarsh dominated the overall production of services, seagrass and tidal flats drove 97% of the service changes that occurred from one year to the next. From 1996 to 2016, MassBays lost 50% of its seagrass cover and gained 20% more tidal flats, resulting in a 5% overall loss in ecosystem services. Again, this varied among the five regions, with Cape Cod losing as much as 12% of a given service while the Upper North Shore gained 4% in services overall. We bootstrapped the analysis to provide a range of probable outcomes. We also mapped the changes in service production for each of the sixty-eight embayments. This analysis will aid local managers in accounting for ecosystem services as they develop management plans for their represented stakeholders.

Long-term clinical outcomes of tricuspid valve replacement using bovine versus porcine valves: a nationwide population-based study.

The early and long-term clinical outcomes of bovine versus porcine tricuspid valve replacement (TVR) were compared based on the nationwide database from the National Health Insurance Service. Of 1464 patients who underwent TVR from 2002 to 2018 in Korea, 541 were enrolled after excluding mechanical TVR, re-TVR, complex congenital heart disease, Ebstein anomaly and age <19 years at operation. Bovine (group B) and porcine valves (group P) were used in 342 and 199 patients, respectively. The median follow-up duration was 4.1 years [interquartile range 1.2-9.0]. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis was performed for adjustment between the groups. Early and long-term clinical outcomes, including all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, endocarditis and reoperation, were compared. In inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis, operative mortality and early clinical outcomes were comparable between the groups. The cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality demonstrated no significant differences between the groups [36.8% vs 38.0% at 5 years in group B versus group P; adjusted hazard ratio = 0.93; P = 0.617]. The cumulative incidence of cardiac death, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke and endocarditis also demonstrated no significant differences between the groups (28.1% vs 25.9%, 7.1% vs 1.2%, 3.2% vs 4.2% and 9.7% vs 6.0% at 5 years in group B versus group P, respectively). However, the cumulative incidence of reoperation was higher in group B than in group P (20.2% vs 3.4% at 5 years in group B vs group P; adjusted hazard ratio = 4.76; P = 0.006). Early clinical outcomes and long-term outcomes, including all-cause mortality, cardiac death, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke and endocarditis, were comparable between bovine and porcine TVRs. However, porcine valves demonstrated a lower cumulative incidence of reoperation than bovine valves.

Exposure to Non-Antimicrobial Drugs and Risk of Infection with Antibiotic-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has consistently been linked to antibiotic use. However, the roles of commonly prescribed non-antimicrobial drugs as drivers of AMR may be under-appreciated. Here, we studied a cohort of patients with community-acquired pyelonephritis and assessed the association of exposure to non-antimicrobial drugs at the time of hospital admission with infection with drug-resistant organisms (DRO). Associations identified on bivariate analyses were tested using a treatment effects estimator that models both outcome and treatment probability. Exposure to proton-pump inhibitors, beta-blockers, and antimetabolites was significantly associated with multiple resistance phenotypes. Clopidogrel, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and anti-Xa agents were associated with single-drug resistance phenotypes. Antibiotic exposure and indwelling urinary catheters were covariates associated with AMR. Exposure to non-antimicrobial drugs significantly increased the probability of AMR in patients with no other risk factors for resistance. Non-antimicrobial drugs may affect the risk of infection with DRO through multiple mechanisms. If corroborated using additional datasets, these findings offer novel directions for predicting and mitigating AMR.

The non-unitary nature of information preference

Factors affecting information-seeking behaviour can be task-endogenous (e.g., probability of winning a gamble), or task-exogenous (e.g., personality trait measures). Various task-endogenous factors affecting non-instrumental information-seeking behaviour have been identified, but it is unclear how task-exogenous factors affect such behaviour, and if they interact with task-endogenous factors. In an online information seeking experiment (N = 279), we focus on the role that outcome probability, as a task-endogenous factor, has on information preferences. We find reliable preference for advance information on highly probable gains and low preference for highly probable losses. Comparisons with individual trait measures of information preference (e.g., intolerance of uncertainty scale, obsessive-compulsive inventory, information preferences scale) reveal minimal association between these task-exogenous factors with choice task performance. We also find minimal interaction between outcome probability and individual trait measures. Despite the choice task and trait measures purportedly tapping the same (or similar) construct, the absence of clear relationships ultimately suggests a multi-dimensional nature of information preference.

Role of Criminal Profilers in Crisis Situations

Although the first true criminal psychological profile was created less than 70 years ago, and the first unit whose task was to help solve challenging and complicated crimes by analyzing psychological aspects was created about 50 years ago, today we cannot imagine the work of any law enforcement service without the significant contribution of psychological profilers. On the other hand, the number and type of security threats have grown exponentially in the same period, and although it is not possible to react to one part of those threats on time and prevent them, for the other part of those threats there is enough space and time that by engaging profilers, and in certain crisis situations, such as hostage crises, be it terrorist attacks, bank robberies, or other situations in which the perpetrators of such acts take hostages, by engaging a specific subtype of profilers – the negotiators, increase the chances for a peaceful resolution of the crisis situation and prevention of loss of human lives, which is of paramount interest in humane societies. The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of profiler-negotiator in crisis situations with a criminal background, using a hypothetical-deductive model and methods of analysis of primary and secondary sources, as well as qualitative, quantitative, comparative analysis, with the starting hypothesis that using techniques and methods of psychological profiling and negotiations in crisis situations with a criminal basis and background, the probability of a positive outcome, peaceful resolution of the crisis situation and damage control drastically increases

The influence of technical performance indicators on the results of the Chinese Football Super League at different stages of the season-based on evidence from the 2010–2019 seasons

This study explored the different influences of technical indicators on match results in different stages of football league play. Sample data from 2400 Chinese Super League matches during 2010–2019 were divided into three season stages according to round sequence: the early stage (1–10 rounds), the middle stage (11–20 rounds), and the late stage (21–30 rounds). A two-way, fixed-effect ordered logit model was then constructed and used, together with Fisher’s combination test, to compare regression results. The study results showed that: (1) when controlling for other variables, as the league progresses, an increase in goals will gradually increase the possibility of better match results, and this increase shows significant differences between the early and late stages ( p &lt; 0.05). The possibility of better match results by an extra goal is 0.075 times higher in the late stage than the early stage. (2) While maintaining all control variables, as the season progresses, the increase in red card penalties will gradually multiply the probability of worse match outcomes, and this increase is also significantly different between the early and middle stages and between the early and late stages ( p &lt; 0.05). The possibility of worse match outcomes due to the presence of an extra red card is 0.377 times higher in the middle stage and 0.476 times higher in the late stage than the early stage.

Decentralised Finance’s timocratic governance: The distribution and exercise of tokenised voting rights

Ethereum’s public distributed ledger can issue tokenised voting rights that are tradable on crypto-asset exchanges by potentially anyone. Ethereum thus enables global, unincorporated associations to conduct governance experiments. Such experiments are crucial to Decentralised Finance (DeFi). DeFi is a nascent field of unlicensed, unregulated, and non-custodial financial services that utilise public distributed ledgers and crypto-assets rather than corporate structures and sovereign currencies. The inaugural Bloomberg Galaxy DeFi Index, launched in August 2021, included nine Ethereum-based projects – non-custodial exchanges as well as lending and derivatives platforms. Each project is governed, at least in part, by unregistered holders of tokenised voting rights (also known as governance tokens). Token-holders typically vote for or against coders’ improvement proposals that pertain to anything from the allocation of treasury funds to a collateral’s risk parameters. DeFi’s governance thus depends on the distribution and exercise of tokenised voting rights. Since archetypal DeFi projects are not managed by companies or public institutions, not much is known about DeFi’s governance. Regulators and law-makers from the United States recently asked if DeFi’s governance entails a new class of “shadowy” elites. In response, we conducted an exploratory multiple-case study that focused on the tokenised voting rights issued by the nine projects from Bloomberg’s inaugural Galaxy DeFi index. Our mixed methods approach drew on Ethereum-based data about the distribution, trading, staking, and delegation of voting rights tokens, as well as project documentation and archival records. We discovered that DeFi projects’ voting rights are highly concentrated, and the exercise of these rights is very low. Our theoretical contribution is a philosophical intervention: minority rule, not “democracy”, is the probable outcome of token-tradable voting rights and a lack of applicable anti-concentration laws. We interpret DeFi’s minority rule as timocratic.

Consumer-based brand equity of South African luxury fashion brands

PurposeSouth Africa is the leading market for luxury goods in Africa – a fact evident from the statistics on luxury retail and the expanding footprint of international and local luxury brands. In a market that is dominated by prominent international brands, indigenous South African brands are seldom the subject of empirical research. This study addresses this gap by analysing the consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) of South African luxury fashion brands and its outcomes on the purchase/repurchase intention of consumers of South African luxury fashion brands.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopted quantitative research methods and utilized survey questionnaires to acquire data from 130 respondents. Structural equation modelling was used in testing the proposed alternative hypotheses.FindingsThe study affirmed the relevance of Aaker's (1991) CBBE model for luxury goods in the emerging economy of South Africa. It established perceived quality and behavioural loyalty as significant predictors of brand equity while affirming the prevalence of hedonism and behavioural loyalty in South Africa's luxury fashion market.Research limitations/implicationsThe small sample size and the limited geographic scope of the study had a significant adverse impact on the broad application of the study's outcome. Furthermore, Aaker's (1991) CBBE model, while adequate, may have diminished the probability of a nuanced outcome.Originality/valueThis study advances the frontiers of interdisciplinary research by applying the marketing framework of CBBE to fashion studies in South Africa. The validated measurement scale, which emphasises the relevance of hedonism and behavioural loyalty in South Africa, may be useful for a similar study on luxury fashion brands in other emerging economies.