Probability Of Marriage Research Articles

The Emergence of the Socioeconomic Gradient in Women's Marriage Outcomes

Abstract We present new findings about the relationship between marriage and socioeconomic background in the United States in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Imputing socioeconomic status of family of origin from first names, we document a socioeconomic gradient for women in the probability of marriage and the socioeconomic status of husbands, which widens over this period. Regional divergence in occupational structure explains half of the divergence in the probability of marriage, and most of the increase in marital sorting. Urbanization and the associated improvement in women's labor market opportunities drive most of these differences.

Spatially-informed insights into early marriage and school dropout: An advanced bivariate binary multilevel model for understanding Ethiopia's context

The phenomenon of school dropout, which entails the failure to meet the minimum educational requirements, and early marriage, which involves the marital union of girls prior to attaining 18 years of age, constitute crucial issues in Ethiopia. This research endeavor sought to identify the determinants of these two outcomes. A weighted sample of 3091 girls who had experienced early marriage and school dropout was drawn from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) dataset and analyzed utilizing bivariate binary multilevel models featuring spatial effects. The prevalence rates of early marriage and school dropout were 62.9 % and 75.4 %, respectively. We observed non-uniform spatial distributions of early marriage and school dropout across Ethiopia. The odds ratio of the association between early marriage and school dropout was 1.39, indicating a significant interdependence of these two outcomes. The probability of early marriage and school dropout was estimated to be 1.63 and 1.18 times higher, respectively, for girls hailing from rural areas and 1.70 and 1.23 times higher, respectively, for those classified in the poorest wealth index, as compared to their counterparts. Therefore, stakeholders and policymakers must prioritize hotspots, socio-economic, and demographic factors to achieve a meaningful reduction in the incidence of early marriage and school dropout.

Local Crime and Early Marriage: Evidence from India

This paper analyses whether living in a locality with high crime against women affects the probability of early marriage—that is, marriage before the legal age of marriage of girls. Using a nationally representative longitudinal data set and tackling the potential endogeneity of local crime rates, we find that perceived crime against women in the locality significantly increases the likelihood of early marriage of girls, while there is no such effect on boys of comparable age group. We also find no such effect of gender-neutral crimes (such as theft and robbery) on the likelihood of early marriage of girls. Moreover, we find that the relationship holds only in conservative households where the purdah system is practised, and also in the northern region of India, where patriarchal culture and gender norms are stronger than in the southern region. A sensitivity analysis assessing the potential impact of unobservable confounders suggests that our estimates are unlikely to be affected by omitted variable bias.

The problem and probability of marriage for alumnae in Progressive Era United States

When Bryn Mawr College opened in 1885, then-president James Rhoads highlighted the precautions taken to ensure that the young women students would remain healthy, in reaction to the publicized warnings of Scottish physician Thomas S. Clouston, M.D. Dr. Clouston’s concern that girls’ higher education would damage their health epitomized a growing anxiety around the status of wives and mothers at a time of increased educational opportunities for the so-called ‘fairer sex’. To counter these opinions, college alumnae and administrators turned to statistics. Through a combination of published statistics and informal anecdotes, this article provides an in-depth study of how marriage data were solicited, tabulated, and framed at Bryn Mawr College during the Progressive Era, contributing a detailed case-study to the historiography on the period’s debates over educated women. The tension between marriage and a career in research was acutely apparent to the women in academia who were at once responsible for the statistical analysis and among the subjects under investigation. While the survey design and published results emphasized the desired outcome of marriage after graduation, these same documents also offered space for emerging professional trajectories.

Opting out or left out? The gendered determinants of marriage in South Korea

AbstractObjectiveThis study examines the determinants of marriage decline in South Korea, a representative case of the “demographic crisis” sweeping East Asia.BackgroundThe major theories accounting for marriage and family trends are for the most part based on Western cases. A complementing focus on non‐Western societies is likely to identify a more diverse range of processes governing marriage patterns in advanced capitalist societies.MethodThe study draws on the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) to analyze a sample of 4201 unmarried individuals whose longitudinal data were organized into 55,989 person‐year records. Discrete‐time hazard models incorporating 23 waves of KLIPS data (1998–2020) identify the gendered determinants of marriage.ResultsSocioeconomic resources continue to positively impact men's marriage chances although income, relative to employment status and educational attainment, has become paramount for members of the younger 1980s cohort. Parental wealth, an important precondition for home purchases, also positively impacts the likelihood of marriage for men. Income and parental wealth have become important for women as well but unlike the documented “educational crossover” that has occurred elsewhere, high educational attainment remains negatively associated with marriage probability for Korean women.ConclusionThis study clarifies the scope conditions for arguments about the “shifting economic foundations of marriage,” while foregrounding the enduring legacy of extended‐family resources in strong familism societies. The results also lend empirical leverage to past studies highlighting the clear disincentives for marriage among highly educated women and provide a more comprehensive picture of why underprivileged men are being left out of Korea's marriage market.

Female education and marriage in Pakistan: The role of financial shocks and marital customs

This project aims to explore the effect of wealth shocks on education and marriage for young women in Pakistan. Financial shocks are used to estimate the probability of dropping out of education and into marriage. Using the Pakistan Rural Household Panel survey for the years 2000–10, the effects of financial shocks on the probability of dropping out of education and into marriage are estimated for boys and girls in rural areas. Second, the returns to education in the marriage market are estimated using information on marital payments of dowry and brideprice. Lastly, the intergenerational effects of women’s increased bargaining power due to marital assets is estimated. The results show wealth shocks do not have a gendered effect on school dropout. Also, adverse shocks during the teenage years do not increase the probability of early marriage. However, this relationship is negative in villages where marital payments are typically higher—that is, marriage costs can delay early marriage in shock-hit households as they are more credit-constrained. Lastly, higher educated women receive more marital assets, which can contribute to increased bargaining power within the marriage. This increased bargaining power also has intergenerational effects on children’s schooling.

Determinants of singleness among women aged 40 and over in Algeria: what relation to the labor market?

The decrease in the average age of marriage and the increase in loneliness among women in Algeria is a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly visible in society. In the coming years, the number of single people will increase. This article analyses the factors leading to increased loneliness among women aged 40 and over in Algeria based on data from the MICS6/2019 survey. The minimum age threshold was chosen because it corresponds to the age after which the probability of first marriage is almost zero based on Algerian statistics. The methodology of this study is stepwise Wald logistic regression. The paper built regression models based on two samples: the first (24,681 women aged 40 and over) and the second (4,329 women aged 50-54). For an empirical study of loneliness among women, it is proposed to analyze the following determinants: type of employment, type of social protection, place of residence, level of education, and age. Based on the results of the research, four main conclusions were formed. First, the odds of being single are 14.1 times and 4.23 times higher among job-seeking and working women, respectively, compared to non-working women. Due to the loss of hope to get married, women choose career development instead of building a family union. Under these conditions, women integrate into the labor market late. Since most of this category is unemployed and not of retirement age, they have low health insurance coverage. Based on this, to create decent living conditions for single women aged 40 and older, it is advisable to launch a program to improve the qualifications of these women, find ways to integrate them into the working environment and provide them with health insurance. Secondly, the long-term trend indicates that loneliness as a psychological phenomenon will increase every year in society, which will, accordingly, contribute to the strengthening of the imbalance in the marriage market. Late marriage and declining fertility are indicators of new patterns of behavior brought about by economic and social change. Thirdly, the level of well-being is also a statistically significant factor influencing the loneliness of women. Middle-class women are 1.27 times more likely to be single than upper-class women. Fourth, the survey revealed significant regional differences. Women in Algeria’s north-eastern and north-central regions are more likely to remain single. These results can be further explored through qualitative research.

Therapeutic exposures and pubertal testicular dysfunction are associated with adulthood milestones and paternity after childhood cancer.

Childhood cancer therapy may cause long-term effects. This cross-sectional study evaluated adulthood milestones in male childhood cancer survivors (CCS). The study population comprised 252 male CCS with 6 to 42years of survival diagnosed at the Children's Hospital in Helsinki (1964-2000) at the age of 0 to 17years. Sex-, age-, and area of residence-matched population controls were randomly selected from the Finnish national registries. Data on moving away from the parental home, marital status, offspring, and adoption in CCS were compared with the population controls. We analyzed the influence of chemotherapy and radiation exposures and testicular dysfunction (ever nontestosterone-substituted serum follicle stimulating hormone>15 IU/L, luteinizing hormone >15 IU/L, testosterone <2ng/mL (5nmol/L), need of testosterone replacement therapy, or testicular volume <12mL at the end of puberty) during pubertal maturation on long-term social outcomes. CCS moved away from their parental home as frequently as population controls (97.8% vs. 98.5%, p=.45). CCS were less likely to marry or live in a registered relationship (46.4% vs. 57.5%, p<.001), especially when diagnosed at a young age (<4years). Among those married, the probability of divorce was similar between CCS and population controls (27.4% vs. 23.8%, p=.41). Survivors were less likely to sire a child (38.5% vs. 59.1%, p<.001) and more likely to adopt (2% vs. 0.4%, p=.015). Lower probability of paternity was associated with hematopoietic stem cell therapy, testicular radiation dose >6Gy, pubertal signs of testicular dysfunction (nontestosterone-substituted serum follicle stimulating hormone>15 IU/L, luteinizing hormone >15 IU/L, testosterone <2ng/mL (5nmol/L), or need of testosterone replacement therapy during puberty, or testicular volume <12mL at the end of puberty) or azoospermia after puberty. This study emphasizes the value of pubertal monitoring of testicular function to estimate future probability of paternity. If no signs of dysfunction occurred during pubertal follow-up, paternity was comparable to population controls. Testicular radiation dose >6Gy appeared to be the strongest risk factor for decreased paternity. Treatment with intensive therapies, including hematopoietic stem cell therapy, testicular radiation dose >6Gy, and signs of testicular dysfunction, during puberty are important risk factors for lower rates of fertility. Intensive therapies and testicular dysfunction itself do not similarly hamper psychosocial milestones in adulthood; cancer diagnosis at a very young age (<4years) lower the probability of marriage. This study accentuates the importance of monitoring of pubertal development, emphasizing on testicular function, not only sperm analysis, to estimate future fertility among male childhood cancer survivors.

Women's education, marriage, and fertility outcomes: Evidence from Thailand's compulsory schooling law

Increased education affects market and non-market outcomes. This paper investigates the causal impact of the extension of compulsory education from 6 to 9 years on females’ education, marriage, and fertility outcomes in Thailand. Using data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and a donut-hole Regression Discontinuity (RD) design, we show that the new law increases lower secondary school completion in girls, leading to decreased probabilities of giving birth in the school-age years (14–17 years). The policy primarily affects the marginal child leading to the postponement of the timing of their fertility to after-school years. We also document heterogeneity and show that the fertility effects are stronger for Muslim women. The policy leads to a consistent drop in the probability of marriage and cumulative births for Muslim women, which sustain beyond the completion of schooling years. The results hold with alternative empirical model specifications and falsification tests.

Going against global marriage trends: the declining age at first marriage in Indonesia

ABSTRACT Marriage is a key marker in the transition to adulthood across much of Asia. Globally, early marriages have declined, and marriage age has increased. This study examined changes in marriage timing for Indonesian women between 1965 and 2016 using multiple data sources, including registration, censuses, and surveys, and employed a robust methodology. The findings show that there was a steady decrease in the probability of first marriage between 1965 and 1990. But this trend reversed in the early 2000s, with an increase in the likelihood of marriage. Women with lower education showed a stall in the decline of early marriage during this period, while the probability of marriage by age 24 increased among women with higher education. The educational disparities in marriage timing have persisted, but the gap between women with completed secondary and lower education has narrowed, while the difference between those with completed secondary and higher education has remained consistent. These findings highlight the influence of both short-term events and long-term changes in gender ideologies, family values, moral norms, and the rise of Islamization on marriage timing in Indonesia.

Impact of Tuition‐Free Education Policy on Child Marriage and Early Childbearing: Does Secondary Matter More?

AbstractChild marriage and early childbearing severely impact maternal and child health as well as long‐term economic outcomes. Given their continued high incidence, analyzing the feasibility of effective national interventions remains crucial. While cross‐sectional surveys and a few small‐scale randomized experiments suggest delays in marriage and childbearing associated with secondary schooling, the impact of policies that advance secondary school at a national scale is largely unknown. Using a quasi‐experimental research design, we examine whether making secondary school tuition‐free delayed marriage and childbearing. We use a difference‐in‐differences strategy that exploits the natural variation in the timing of policy rollout in five sub‐Saharan African countries. Using the Demographic and Health Surveys, we estimate the impact of the policy change by comparing changes in outcomes over the study period between girls who were exposed to the policy to those who were not. We find that tuition‐free secondary reduced the probability of marriage and childbearing before 15 and 18 years of age. We observed significantly larger effects associated with tuition‐free secondary over tuition‐free primary for all outcomes. Our findings show it is important to support tuition‐free secondary education as a policy instrument to delay marriage and childbirth, especially given current high rates and their long‐term health and economic consequences.

Muito jovem ou pobre para casar? Efeito do Programa Bolsa Família sobre o casamento infantil feminino

This article estimates the effects of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) on the probability of child marriage of its beneficiaries. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the family's financial situation is one of the determinants of the marriage of girls under age of 18. This hypothesis is a result of families' optimization under uncertainty, which we build through a theoretical model. The empirical test uses data from the 2019 Continuous National Household Sample Survey and the Propensity Score Matching method. Our main result is that the PBF reduces the probability of child marriage for girls living in poverty.&nbsp

The effectiveness of paradoxical therapy on relational practical obsessive-compulsive symptoms

Background and Aim: Previous studies have shown that compared to the general population, patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder often have disorders in relational functioning, including interpersonal problems, mistrust, and unhappiness in interpersonal relationships, and the probability of marriage is lower and increased. Marital problems, ambivalence, severe interpersonal conflicts, revenge, and sexual problems are common. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the effectiveness of paradoxical therapy on relational practical obsessive-compulsive symptoms. Methods: In terms of the practical purpose and data collection method, the current research design was a single-case experiment of the multiple baseline type, sometimes called a single-subject experiment or a time series experiment. It is an experiment that consists of intensive research on a person or several people who are considered a single group. Among the single-subject designs, the baseline-intervention-follow-up (A-B-C) design was used in this study. The research community included all undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral students aged 20 to 45 years in Tehran. For sampling, six people were selected from the available sampling method and completed the treatment sessions. The clinical interview was used to diagnose the relational obsessive-compulsive disorder and its differential diagnoses. Quantitative data was collected by completing questionnaires and research scales in three phases: baseline, intervention, and follow-up. Results: The statistical analysis of the research data showed that the hypothesis of the research entitled "Paradoxical psychotherapy improves ego strength in relational obsessive-compulsive patients" was confirmed with 56.5% overall improvement. Conclusion: Based on the findings of the visual analysis of six participants and the results of the strong effect size and the improvement rate of relational obsessive-compulsive disorder symptoms, the results of the paradox treatment can be considered very effective.

Marriage as insurance: job protection and job insecurity in France

Job insecurity is one of the risks that workers face on the labour market. As with any risk, individuals can choose to insure against it, and we here consider marriage as one potential source of this insurance. The 1999 rise in the French Delalande tax, paid by larger private firms when they laid off workers aged 50 or over, led to an exogenous rise in job insecurity for the uncovered (younger workers) in these larger firms. A difference-in-differences analysis using French panel data reveals that this greater job insecurity for the under-50s led to a significant rise in their probability of marriage, and especially when the partner had greater job security, consistent with marriage providing insurance against labour-market risk.

Marriage chances and international migration from Fujian to the US, 1978–2000

This paper explores the effect of migration on marriage for Fujianese international migrants to the US during a period of mass China–US migration, 1978–2000. It sheds light on significant gender differences in terms of the impact of migration on marriage. Data from the Chinese International Migration Project on Chinese international migration to the US was used, with detailed information on respondents’ migration and marriage history. Discrete-time event history techniques are employed allowing for correlation across migration and marriage at both the individual and household levels. Results show that migration decreased men’s marriage chances, while it only temporarily disrupted those of women. The negative effect of migration on marriage for men could be due to the differing educational levels for male and female migrants, which makes assortative matching less likely at destination, especially for lower educated men. The results also show that migrants have a higher probability of marriage than nonmigrants.

Moral orientations as a factor of family self-determination development of modern students

Introduction. The phenomena of the family-demographic crisis in modern society make it necessary to study socio-psychological factors determining the actualisation and development of family self-determination of young people in the context of digital socialisation. Within the framework of digital socialisation, an open and contradictory information space determines the nature of marriage and family ideas, which are the indicative basis for the implementation of family behaviour by young men and women.Aim. The aim of the research is to identify the features of family self-determination of Russian students, who have different moral orientations and personality types in adolescence and early adulthood.Methodology and research methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study consists of: cultural-historical theory of psychological development and the doctrine of a psychological age by L. S. Vygotsky; age and psychological approach to the analysis of mental development in ontogenesis; theories of family self-determination of the individual; the concept of personality orientation by B. S. Bratus; concepts of moral self-determination by A. B. Kupreichenko, A. E. Vorobieva, Q. Guo, P. Sun, M. Cai, X. Zhang, K. Song; theories of prosocial behaviour by K. R. Bell, C. J. Showers; L. Kamas, A. Preston. The study involved 490 students, mostly enrolled in the humanities educational programmes. To achieve the goal, the author applied theoretical and methodological analysis of scientific literature; methods of comparison, generalisation, concretisation; psychodiagnostic method and mathematical and statistical methods of data processing.Results. The conducted research has shown that the dominant moral orientation of the personality in adolescence and early adulthood is a peace-building orientation. As a result of comparative analysis of the structural and content characteristics of family self-determination depending on personal moral orientation at different stages of age development, general and specific features were identified. The invariant characteristic is manifested in the fact that in the humanistic orientation there is a high importance of the value of happy family life; in the peace-building orientation – the strength of roles claims in the sphere of social activity for the stability of marriage and family relations, the importance of such marriage motives as self-actualisation and security; the probability of marriage regulated by unproductive feelings of revenge increases in the egocentric orientation. Adolescence is a sensitive period to form a cognitive component of family self-determination of student youth through the development of spiritual and moral sphere. The period of early adulthood is the most sensitive for the development of value-emotional and regulatory-behavioural component of family self-determination as a result of purposeful education of humanistic and peace-building orientation of students’ personality.Scientific novelty of the research lies in the establishment of the connection between the moral orientation of the personality and meaningful characteristics of family self-determination of students in adolescence (17–19 years) and early adulthood (20–22 years).Practical significance. The research materials and findings can be used for creating the education programmes in the organisations of higher education and for planning measures to preserve and develop traditional family values in the youth environment.

Does education help combat early marriage? The effect of compulsory schooling laws in China

ABSTRACT This paper studies the relationship between education and early marriage by exploiting the 1986 Compulsory Schooling Laws in China. We find that one additional year of schooling decreases the probability of marriage before age 18 by 1.7% points and increases the age at first marriage by 0.734 years. We examine the role of labour market outcomes, marriage traditions, assortative mating, and peer marriage behaviours. We also find evidence that education decreases fertility outcomes and affects the marriage outcomes of the next generation. This suggests that policies aimed at combating early marriage could start with improving children’s educational attainment.

Older Mothers' Employment and Marriage Stability When the Nest is Empty

A significant literature in the social sciences addresses the impact of child-bearing and rearing on marital stability and on mothers’ labour market outcomes. Much less is known about older mothers’ employment and marriage patterns when the adult children leave the parental nest. This study aims to shed light on these issues using longitudinal labour force data for France. Exploiting retirement laws for identification purposes, and taking a regression discontinuity approach, we find that older women’s retirement probability is positively associated with an empty nest. We also conclude that an empty nest is negatively associated with older mothers’ marriage probability. There is scope for better targeting of both family and retirement policies for older mothers during those critical years when adult children leave the parental nest.

Z nesezdaného soužití do manželství: záleží na vzdělanostní homogamii?

This article examines the association between cohabiting partners’ educational homogamy and transition to marriage. This paper enriches previous studies with its comparative dimension to find out if and how the association differs in countries with different meanings of cohabitation – in Austria, Poland, and the Czech Republic. It also examines if and how the association between the transition to marriage and educational homogamy is changing over time. Using data from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), the analysis shows that the transition to marriage depends on partners’ relative education only in countries where cohabitation and marriage are two very different institutions – Poland and the Czech Republic. Educational hypergamy and hypogamy are not associated with the transition in the same way. In cohabitations where the man is more educated, the probability of marriage is half that compared to homogamous cohabitations, whereas cohabitations with a more educated woman are not significantly different from homogamous cohabitations. Over time, the association between relative education and the transition to marriage has not changed.

The effect of a large-scale workfare program on child marriage in India

ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of a large-scale workfare program, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), on child marriage in India. We use two rounds of data from the District Level Household & Facility Surveys and estimate a difference-in-differences model by comparing changes in child marriage rates between a cohort of young women and a cohort of older women before and after program implementation. We find that NREGS is associated with an increase in the probability of marriage before 18 of 2.7 percentage points, or 10.6%. Our results are similar when using different definitions of child marriage and are also robust to using a hazard model and a model with program intensity at the district level.