Probability Of Crisis Research Articles

The costs and benefits of bank capital requirements

Since the immediate aftermath of the 2007–2009 financial crisis, several studies have produced estimates of the short-term and long-term impact of increases in bank regulatory capital on bank lending and real activity. As documented in BCBS (2016), earlier studies concluded that permanent and significant increases in capital requirements would result in relatively small declines in bank lending and modest declines in real activity. More recent studies have detected cases in which the short-term impact of increases in capital requirements may be large, but a gradual phasing-in of these requirements may spread their costs out evenly in the long-term. Importantly, most studies conclude that the long-term costs of higher capital requirements are lower than the benefits arising from their lowering the probability of banking crises with their attendant real costs…

Exploring technological resilience at the country level with patents

ABSTRACTResilience is critical to stabilise and reduce shocks and create advantages over competitors in environments with dramatic change and unexpected crises. There is no generally agreed-upon definition of technological resilience, and there is not yet a well-developed theory of technological resilience at the country level. The objective of this paper is to contribute to technological resilience research based on patent indicators by analyzing OECD countries’ technological resilience. This paper provides a framework to analyze the quality of selected patent indicators used for estimating technological crisis. More specifically, four sets of patent indicators, i.e. collaboration, knowledge, diversity, and legal protection, are employed to evaluate technological resilience, which is characterised as crisis probability, intensity, and duration. We found that higher technological coverage leads to higher crisis probability, more original technology leads to higher crisis intensity, and interpersonal collaboration enhances the chance of passing a crisis.

Does Extreme Correlation Matter in Global Equity Asset Allocation?

Global asset allocation provides risk diversification. But international market correlation increases sharply during global crises and diversification benefit disappears when it is most needed. We model these correlation breaks and derive the asset allocation implications. The model can quickly detect crises and suggests adapting allocation for changing correlation and volatility, as the crisis probability evolves. The out-of-sample results for ten major equity markets over 2008-2016 show significant improvements in the Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown over mean-variance, fat-tail distribution, passive indices and 1/N rule. A benefit of the model is that it is conceptually intuitive and amenable to simple implementation in asset allocation and risk management.

Evolving micro- and macroprudential regulations in the United States: A primer

The need for macropru policies is partly a reflection of the view that monetary policy has a reach that is too broad to be cost-effective for dealing with the kind of imbalances that led to the recent financial crisis (Blanchard et al., 2013). More specifically, higher monetary policy rates — not supported by higher inflationary expectations — may reduce aggregate output when not all sectors suffer the build-up of financial imbalances. Moreover, the policy rate may have too small and uncertain of an effect on the probability and/or severity of a financial crisis to match the substantial costs of tighter monetary policy (Svensson, 2015), particularly since monetary policy may have limited power in affecting credit supply (Romer and Romer, 1990) and lower policy rates may actually reduce asset price bubbles, rather than create or inflate them (Gali, 2014)…

Comments by Iris Claus, on Exchange Rate Flexibility, Financial Market Openness, and Economic Growth

February 01 2018 Comments by Iris Claus, on Exchange Rate Flexibility, Financial Market Openness, and Economic Growth Author and Article Information Online Issn: 1536-0083 Print Issn: 1535-3516 © 2018 by the Asian Economic Panel and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology2018Massachusetts Institute of Technology Asian Economic Papers (2018) 17 (1): 163–165. https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00596 Cite Icon Cite Permissions Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Search Site Citation Comments by Iris Claus, on Exchange Rate Flexibility, Financial Market Openness, and Economic Growth. Asian Economic Papers 2018; 17 (1): 163–165. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00596 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsAsian Economic Papers Search Advanced Search Iris Claus: Economic recovery following the 2008–09 global financial crisis has been slow. To accelerate economic growth, policy recommendations by G-20 countries have been to correct global imbalances by implementing structural reforms and more market-determined exchange rate systems. In their paper, Il Houng Lee and Kyunghun Kim take a different view. They argue that greater exchange rate flexibility by itself cannot resolve global imbalances and “policymakers should consider the long-term growth effect when formulating exchange rate policy as it could be a useful policy option for emerging markets with limited policy independence.” Lee and Kim first define which countries should be classified as emerging economies and then assess the usefulness of greater exchange rate flexibility as a policy tool to (i) reduce the probability of a currency crisis; and (ii) to support long-run economic growth. A currency crisis is defined as an annual depreciation against the U.S. dollar of... You do not currently have access to this content.

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and 'Coordinated' Macroprudential Policies

This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with high trade and financial linkages raises the crisis probability. However, whether such 'contagion effects' can operate to reduce crisis probabilities when highly linked countries execute macroprudential policies together has not been fully explored. A dataset documenting countries' use of macroprudential tools suggests that a 'coordinated' implementation of macroprudential policies across highly-linked countries can help to stem the risks of widespread banking crises, although this positive effect may take some time to materialize.

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and 'Coordinated' Macroprudential Policies

This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with high trade and financial linkages raises the crisis probability. However, whether such “contagion effects” can operate to reduce crisis probabilities when highly linked countries execute macroprudential policies together has not been fully explored. A dataset documenting countries’ use of macroprudential tools suggests that a “coordinated” implementation of macroprudential policies across highly-linked countries can help to stem the risks of widespread banking crises, although this positive effect may take some time to materialize.

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950–2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors’ overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.

Financial Crises and the Role of Debt Maturity for Emerging Economies

This paper studies the role of debt maturity for small open economies subject to endogenous financial crises. It uses an off-the-shelf two-sector DSGE model featuring collateral constraints and endogenous financial crises but allows the duration of the bond in the economy to vary. This model generates a trade-off between the borrowing cost and insurance benefit of a long-term bond. On one hand, it is more costly for small open economies to borrow through the long-term bond than the short-term bond. On the other hand, a long-term bond also provides an insurance benefit against aggregate shocks and the probability of financial crises declines monotonically in the duration of the bond. As a result, the quantitative analysis shows that the ex-ante welfare is maximized when the duration of the bond in the economy is six quarters and this result sheds some light on why emerging mark.

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950–2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors’ overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.

Bank Runs, Prudential Tools and Social Welfare in a Global Game General Equilibrium Model

The regulatory framework of Basel III features joint requirements on bank capital and liquidity. I study such requirements by developing a general equilibrium model with bank runs in a global game framework. The model highlights the role of noisy information for studying liquidity and shows that bank runs are inevitable. Risk shifting induces excessive leverage and insufficient liquidity, causing an inefficiently high crisis probability. Imposing one requirement only causes risk migration: banks respond by taking more risk in another area, which warrants joint requirements. The design of the optimal joint requirements depends crucially on the model's general equilibrium effect.

Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆

Whether finance is beneficial to economic development remains ambiguous. There are studies arguing that finance can facilitate growth and increase stability. However, the recent global financial crisis has led some to argue that finance can decrease stability and lead to more crises. This paper constructs a non-monotonic framework of quantity of finance (measured by leverage) and financial crisis and decomposes leverage into fundamental and excess components. Using cross-country level data, the empirical results confirms that it is excess leverage, rather than fundamental leverage, that results in the increase of probability of financial crisis. Further empirical results show that excess leverage leads to a higher probability of currency crisis, asset price collapse, and banking crisis, while fundamental leverage helps alleviates the crises. This paper reconciles the two contrasting views of the relationship between finance and economic development and provides strong policy implication to pay special attention to the sudden increase of leverage, which is probably excessive, rather than fundamental leverage.

Financial Imbalances, Crisis Probability and Monetary Policy in Norway

We assess the strength of the impact of a monetary policy shock on financial crisis probability in Norway. Policy effects go via the interest rate impact on credit, house prices and banks' wholesale funding. We find that the impact of a monetary policy shock on crisis probability is about 10 times larger than what previous studies suggest. The large impact is mostly due to a fall in property prices and banks' wholesale funding in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock. In contrast, and in line with existing literature, there is a more limited contribution to reduced crisis probability from the impact of monetary policy on credit.

Real and financial shocks, exchange rate regimes and the probability of a currency crisis

We analyze the relationships among shocks, exchange rate regimes, and capital controls in relation to the probability of a currency crisis. Based on the theoretical model by Nakatani (2016, 2017a), we use panel data on 34 developing countries and apply a probit estimation. We find that both productivity shocks and risk premium shocks trigger currency crises, whereas productivity shocks are important for severe currency crises. We also find that the effects of these shocks on the probability of a crisis are larger for floating exchange rate regimes and that capital controls mitigate the effects of productivity shocks in pegged regimes.

The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least in part explained as a compensation for taking crash risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A hidden Markov model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of calm or periods of crisis The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune.

Partnership financing and bank efficiency

This paper aims to analyze the effect of partnership financing on bank efficiency. Partnership financing, which has similar concept with venture capital, refers to the equitable sharing of risks and profits between the client and bank. By employing output distance function on Malaysian and Indonesian Islamic bank over 1996 to 2012, we estimate bank efficiency score using Stochastic Frontier Approach and examine its determinants. Our results show that banks with partnership financing are more efficient than other banks. Banks with low capital risk coupled with large amount of partnership financing tend to be more efficient. However, when estimating the probability of crises using an early warning system, banks with high partnership financing appear to be less efficient during crises. The results suggest that the use of partnership financing improves efficiency, especially for banks with low capital risk except during crisis.

Government Financial Assets and Debt Sustainability

Do government financial assets help improve public debt sustainability? To answer this question, we assemble a comprehensive dataset on government assets using multiple sources and covering 110 advanced and emerging market economies since the late 1980s. We then use this rich database to estimate the impact of assets on two key dimensions of debt sustainability: borrowing costs and the probability of debt distress. Government financial assets significantly reduce sovereign spreads and the probability of debt crises in emerging economies but not in advanced economies, and the effect varies with asset characteristics, notably liquidity. Government finacial assets also help discriminate countries across the distribution of sovereign spreads, thus signaling information about emerging economies’ creditworthiness.

An Early Warning System for currency crises in Argentina and Brazil 1990-2009

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has affected many regions including Latin America. This paper focuses on currency crises in Argentina and Brazil, the two largest economies in South America, and with a wide experience with currency crises. We estimate an Early Warning System, consisting of a static factor model and a multinomial ordered logit model, with monthly data for 1990-2007. Ex ante forecasts for 2008-2009 produce an increased probability of currency crises in the fall of 2008.Our model outcomes confirm that elements from earlier crises are useful to predict the currency crises during the GFC.

Does easing monetary policy increase financial instability?

This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policy and to the role of US monetary and regulatory policy in the run up to the Subprime mortgage crisis. There are two main results. First, interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when the interest rate is the only available instrument, monetary policy faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. This trade off is both qualitative and quantitative in response to contractionary shocks, while it is only quantitative in response to positive shocks. We show that a second instrument, such as a Pigouvian tax on credit to households on the demand side of the market, is needed to restore efficiency in the economy when both frictions are at work.

How will financial liberalization change the Chinese economy? Lessons from middle-income countries

This study projects the impact of financial liberalization in China by drawing on the experiences of 60 middle-income economies over a period of four decades. Our results suggest that comprehensive financial reform could increase GDP growth per capita by up to 1.4% points and raise the real bank lending rate by up to 5.1% points. Perhaps the most unexpected result is a massive increase in net capital inflows by up to 20.1% of GDP, which could plant seeds for financial risks later. The probability of a currency crisis could increase by up to 21.7% points, but the probability of a banking crisis may rise or fall, depending on the quality of bank supervision. We also find different policy impacts of different financial reform measures. Bank ownership reform and regulatory reform are critical in supporting economic growth and financial stability. These findings offer important policy implications on how to derive maximum benefit from financial reforms while effectively mitigating potential risks.