Probability Of Causation Research Articles

From Statistical Evidence to Evidence of Causality

While statisticians and quantitative social scientists typically study the "effects of causes" (EoC), Lawyers and the Courts are more concerned with understanding the "causes of effects" (CoE). EoC can be addressed using experimental design and statistical analysis, but it is less clear how to incorporate statistical or epidemiological evidence into CoE reasoning, as might be required for a case at Law. Some form of counterfactual reasoning, such as the "potential outcomes" approach championed by Rubin, appears unavoidable, but this typically yields "answers" that are sensitive to arbitrary and untestable assumptions. We must therefore recognise that a CoE question simply might not have a well-determined answer. It is nevertheless possible to use statistical data to set bounds within which any answer must lie. With less than perfect data these bounds will themselves be uncertain, leading to a compounding of different kinds of uncertainty. Still further care is required in the presence of possible confounding factors. In addition, even identifying the relevant "counterfactual contrast" may be a matter of Policy as much as of Science. Defining the question is as non-trivial a task as finding a route towards an answer. This paper develops some technical elaborations of these philosophical points, and illustrates them with an analysis of a case study in child protection. Keywords: benfluorex, causes of effects, counterfactual, child protection, effects of causes, Fre'chet bound, potential outcome, probability of causation

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors - Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer.

Background:There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer.Objectives:We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers.Methods:Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression.Results:We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies.Conclusions:There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.Citation:Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223–229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151

Valproate-Associated Parkinsonism: A Critical Review of the Literature.

Valproate was first approved as an antiepileptic drug in 1962 and has since also become established as a mood stabiliser and as prophylaxis for migraine. In 1979, Lautin published the first description of a valproate-associated extrapyramidal syndrome. Many cases of valproate-associated parkinsonism have subsequently been published, but uncertainties remain concerning its prevalence, risk factors and prognosis. The aim of this paper is to provide a critical review of the existing literature on valproate-associated parkinsonism and to discuss possible mechanisms. Literature databases were searched systematically: we identified a total of 116 patients with valproate-associated parkinsonism published in case reports, case series and systematic analyses. Prevalence rates ranged widely, between 1.4 and 75% of patients taking valproate. There was great heterogeneity with regard to clinical presentation, age of onset, valproate dose, concomitant conditions and imaging findings. In all patients apart from three, valproate plasma concentrations were within or even below the recommended reference range when the parkinsonism occurred. Parkinsonism was reversible in the majority of patients, although recovery was often prolonged and sometimes incomplete. A dopaminergic deficit was confirmed in three of six patients investigated with dopamine transporter imaging. Seven of 14 patients who were treated with dopaminergic medication had a good response. The quality of the evidence was assessed and probability of causation was examined using the Naranjo score, which ranged from 0 to 7 (median: 5.0). Several pathophysiological mechanisms, including altered gene expression and neurotransmitter signalling, enhanced neurodegeneration or unmasking subclinical dopaminergic degeneration, could theoretically lead to valproate-associated parkinsonism. Further studies are warranted to elucidate this entity and its underlying pathophysiology.

A Characteristic Dose Model for Historical Internal Dose Reconstruction in the Framework of the IAEC Compensation Programme.

A model was developed at the Nuclear Research Centre Negev (NRCN) to assess historical doses from internal exposures by a relatively fast and simple procedure. These assessments are needed in the framework of a compensation programme for the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) workers, which were diagnosed for cancer diseases. This compensation programme was recently recommended by a public committee to avoid lengthy court procedures. The developed model is based on the recorded doses from external exposures of all the workers at the NRCN, who were divided into groups representing their different working environments. Each group of workers was characterised by three parameters: working period, working areas and occupation. The model uses several conservative assumptions in order to calculate the doses to various body organs in certain years, which are relevant to the calculation of the probability of causation (POC). The POC value serves as a main parameter in the compensation programme.

Reducing the underreporting of lung cancer attributable to occupation: outcomes from a hospital-based systematic search in Northern Italy.

Occupational exposure to lung carcinogens is and was common in workplaces. 5-25% of lung cancers (LCs) could be causally attributable to occupation; however, LC underreporting and undercompensation are widespread, with remarkable tolls paid by individuals and society. This work aims to: describe an ongoing hospital-based systematic search (SS) of occupational LC; improve aetiological diagnosis; increase number and quality of LC notifications. Through a short form, physicians at a public hospital referred incident LC to the Occupational Health Unit (OHU). Only patients selected through the form were interviewed; a personal, occupational and clinical history was collected; reports were sent to the ward and Local Health Authority, with aetiological diagnosis criteria and probability of causation. From 1998 to 2013, 3274 cases of LC were notified to the OHU; prior to the system, just couple of dozens were assessed. A total of 1522 patients were fully interviewed; in 395 cases, causation was attributed to occupation (26% of interviewed patients); all were notified to authorities, as compared to the handful reported before the system was adopted. Main aetiological agents were silica, asbestos, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, truck driving, painting, multiple exposures. Compensation rate was remarkable (39%). Through SS, many occupational LCs were found that otherwise would have been lost. Aetiological diagnosis proved to be rich of scientific advantages and practical implications, with attention to equity and social aspects. SS was easy, accountable and fostered multidisciplinary collaboration among medical specialties, significantly reducing underreporting and undercompensation of occupational LC.

Female Reproductive Disorders, Diseases, and Costs of Exposure to Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union.

A growing body of evidence suggests that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute to female reproductive disorders. To calculate the associated combined health care and economic costs attributable to specific EDC exposures within the European Union (EU). An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change weight-of-evidence characterization. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated, and biomarker data were organized from carefully identified studies from the peer-reviewed literature to represent European exposure and approximate burden of disease as it occurred in 2010. Cost-of-illness estimation used multiple peer-reviewed sources. Cost estimation was carried out from a societal perspective, ie, including direct costs (eg, treatment costs) and indirect costs such as productivity loss. The most robust EDC-related data for female reproductive disorders exist for 1) diphenyldichloroethene-attributable fibroids and 2) phthalate-attributable endometriosis in Europe. In both cases, the strength of epidemiological evidence was rated as low and the toxicological evidence as moderate, with an assigned probability of causation of 20%–39%. Across the EU, attributable cases were estimated to be 56 700 and 145 000 women, respectively, with total combined economic and health care costs potentially reaching €163 million and €1.25 billion. EDCs (diphenyldichloroethene and phthalates) may contribute substantially to the most common reproductive disorders in women, endometriosis and fibroids, costing nearly €1.5 billion annually. These estimates represent only EDCs for which there were sufficient epidemiologic studies and those with the highest probability of causation. These public health costs should be considered as the EU contemplates regulatory action on EDCs.

Burden of disease and costs of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals in the European Union: an updated analysis.

A previous report documented that endocrine disrupting chemicals contribute substantially to certain forms of disease and disability. In the present analysis, our main objective was to update a range of health and economic costs that can be reasonably attributed to endocrine disrupting chemical exposures in the European Union, leveraging new burden and disease cost estimates of female reproductive conditions from accompanying report. Expert panels evaluated the epidemiologic evidence, using adapted criteria from the WHO Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group, and evaluated laboratory and animal evidence of endocrine disruption using definitions recently promulgated by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. The Delphi method was used to make decisions on the strength of the data. Expert panels consensus was achieved for probable (>20%) endocrine disrupting chemical causation for IQ loss and associated intellectual disability; autism; attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; endometriosis; fibroids; childhood obesity; adult obesity; adult diabetes; cryptorchidism; male infertility, and mortality associated with reduced testosterone. Accounting for probability of causation, and using the midpoint of each range for probability of causation, Monte Carlo simulations produced a median annual cost of €163billion (1.28% of EU Gross Domestic Product) across 1000 simulations. We conclude that endocrine disrupting chemical exposures in the EU are likely to contribute substantially to disease and dysfunction across the life course with costs in the hundreds of billions of Euros per year. These estimates represent only those endocrine disrupting chemicals with the highest probability of causation; a broader analysis would have produced greater estimates of burden of disease and costs.

Modifiable risk factors for the prevention of bladder cancer: a systematic review of meta-analyses.

Each year, 430,000 people are diagnosed with bladder cancer. Due to the high recurrence rate of the disease, primary prevention is paramount. Therefore, we reviewed all meta-analyses on modifiable risk factors of primary bladder cancer. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane database were systematically searched for meta-analyses on modifiable risk factors published between 1995 and 2015. When appropriate, meta-analyses (MA) were combined in meta–meta-analysis (MMA). If not, the most comprehensive MA was selected based on the number of primary studies included. Probability of causation was calculated for individual factors and a subset of lifestyle factors combined. Of 1496 articles identified, 5 were combined in MMA and 21 were most comprehensive on a single risk factor. Statistically significant associations were found for current (RR 3.14) or former (RR 1.83) cigarette smoking, pipe (RR 1.9) or cigar (RR 2.3) smoking, antioxidant supplementation (RR 1.52), obesity (RR 1.10), higher physical activity levels (RR 0.86), higher body levels of selenium (RR 0.61) and vitamin D (RR 0.75), and higher intakes of: processed meat (RR 1.22), vitamin A (RR 0.82), vitamin E (RR 0.82), folate (RR 0.84), fruit (RR 0.77), vegetables (RR 0.83), citrus fruit (RR 0.85), and cruciferous vegetables (RR 0.84). Finally, three occupations with the highest risk were tobacco workers (RR 1.72), dye workers (RR 1.58), and chimney sweeps (RR 1.53). The probability of causation for individual factors ranged from 4 to 68 %. The combined probability of causation was 81.8 %. Modification of lifestyle and occupational exposures can considerably reduce the bladder cancer burden. While smoking remains one of the key risk factors, also several diet-related and occupational factors are very relevant.

Proving Causation With Epidemiological Evidence in Tobacco Lawsuits.

Recently, a series of lawsuits were filed in Korea claiming tort liability against tobacco companies. The Supreme Court has already issued decisions in some cases, while others are still pending. The primary issue in these cases is whether the epidemiological evidence submitted by the plaintiffs clearly proves the causal relationship between smoking and disease as required by civil law. Proving causation is difficult in tobacco lawsuits because factors other than smoking are involved in the development of a disease, and also because of the lapse of time between smoking and the manifestation of the disease. The Supreme Court (Supreme Court Decision, 2011Da22092, April 10, 2014) has imposed some limitations on using epidemiological evidence to prove causation in tobacco lawsuits filed by smokers and their family members, but these limitations should be reconsidered. First, the Court stated that a disease can be categorized as specific or non-specific, and for each disease type, causation can be proven by different types of evidence. However, the concept of specific diseases is not compatible with multifactor theory, which is generally accepted in the field of public health. Second, when the epidemiological association between the disease and the risk factor is proven to be significant, imposing additional burdens of proof on the plaintiff may considerably limit the plaintiff’s right to recovery, but the Court required the plaintiffs to provide additional information such as health condition and lifestyle. Third, the Supreme Court is not giving greater weight to the evidential value of epidemiological study results because the Court focuses on the fact that these studies were group-level, not individual-level. However, group-level studies could still offer valuable information about individual members of the group, e.g., probability of causation.

Probability and Manipulation: Evolution and Simulation in Applied Population Genetics

I define a concept of causal probability and apply it to questions about the role of probability in evolutionary processes. Causal probability is defined in terms of manipulation of patterns in empirical outcomes by manipulating properties that realize objective probabilities. The concept of causal probability allows us see how probabilities characterized by different interpretations of probability can share a similar causal character, and does so in such way as to allow new inferences about relationships between probabilities realized in different chance setups. I clarify relations between probabilities and properties defined in terms of them, and argue that certain widespread uses of computer simulations in evolutionary biology show that many probabilities relevant to evolutionary outcomes are causal probabilities. This supports the claim that higher-level properties such as biological fitness and processes such as natural selection are causal properties and processes, contrary to what some authors have argued.

Low vitamin D status is associated with more depressive symptoms in Dutch older adults.

PurposeThe existence of vitamin D receptors in the brain points to a possible role of vitamin D in brain function. We examined the association of vitamin D status and vitamin D-related genetic make-up with depressive symptoms amongst 2839 Dutch older adults aged ≥65 years.Methods25-Hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was measured, and five ‘vitamin D-related genes’ were selected. Depressive symptoms were measured with the 15-point Geriatric Depression Scale. Results were expressed as the relative risk of the score of depressive symptoms by quartiles of 25(OH)D concentration or number of affected alleles, using the lowest quartile or minor allele group as reference.ResultsA clear cross-sectional and prospective association between serum 25(OH)D and depressive symptom score was observed. Fully adjusted models indicated a 22 % (RR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.68–0.89), 21 % (RR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.68–0.90), and 18 % (RR 0.82, 95 % CI 0.71–0.95) lower score of depressive symptoms in people in the second, third, and fourth 25(OH)D quartiles, when compared to people in the first quartile (P for trend <0.0001). After 2 years of daily 15 µg vitamin D supplementation, similar associations were observed. 25(OH)D concentrations did not significantly interact with the selected genes.ConclusionLow serum 25(OH)D was associated with higher depressive symptom scores. No interactions between 25(OH)D concentrations and vitamin D genetic make-up were observed. In view of the probability of reverse causation, we propose that the association should be further examined in prospective studies as well as in randomized controlled trials.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00394-015-0970-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The causality between smoking and lung cancer among groups and individuals: addressing issues in tobacco litigation in South Korea.

This article discusses issues on the causality between smoking and lung cancer, which have been raised during the tobacco litigation in South Korea. It should be recognized that the explanatory ability of risk factor(s) for inter-individual variations in disease occurrence is different from the causal contribution of the risk factor(s) to disease occurrence. The affected subjects of the tobacco litigation in South Korea are lung cancer patients with a history of cigarette smoking. Thus, the attributable fraction of the exposed rather than the population attributable fraction should be used in the tobacco litigation regarding the causal contribution of smoking to lung cancer. Scientific evidence for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer is based on studies of individuals and groups, studies in animals and humans, studies that are observational or experimental, studies in laboratories and communities, and studies in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The scientific evidence collected is applicable to both groups and individuals. The probability of causation, which is calculated based on the attributable fraction for the association between smoking and lung cancer, could be utilized as evidence to prove causality in individuals.

Male reproductive disorders, diseases, and costs of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in the European Union.

Increasing evidence suggests that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute to male reproductive diseases and disorders. To estimate the incidence/prevalence of selected male reproductive disorders/diseases and associated economic costs that can be reasonably attributed to specific EDC exposures in the European Union (EU). An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change weight-of-evidence characterization. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated, and biomarker data were organized from carefully identified studies from the peer-reviewed literature to represent European exposure and approximate burden of disease as it occurred in 2010. The cost-of-illness estimation utilized multiple peer-reviewed sources. The expert panel identified low epidemiological and strong toxicological evidence for male infertility attributable to phthalate exposure, with a 40-69% probability of causing 618,000 additional assisted reproductive technology procedures, costing €4.71 billion annually. Low epidemiological and strong toxicological evidence was also identified for cryptorchidism due to prenatal polybrominated diphenyl ether exposure, resulting in a 40-69% probability that 4615 cases result, at a cost of €130 million (sensitivity analysis, €117-130 million). A much more modest (0-19%) probability of causation in testicular cancer by polybrominated diphenyl ethers was identified due to very low epidemiological and weak toxicological evidence, with 6830 potential cases annually and costs of €848 million annually (sensitivity analysis, €313-848 million). The panel assigned 40-69% probability of lower T concentrations in 55- to 64-year-old men due to phthalate exposure, with 24 800 associated deaths annually and lost economic productivity of €7.96 billion. EDCs may contribute substantially to male reproductive disorders and diseases, with nearly €15 billion annual associated costs in the EU. These estimates represent only a few EDCs for which there were sufficient epidemiological studies and those with the highest probability of causation. These public health costs should be considered as the EU contemplates regulatory action on EDCs.

Estimating burden and disease costs of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in the European union.

Rapidly increasing evidence has documented that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute substantially to disease and disability. The objective was to quantify a range of health and economic costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposures in the European Union (EU). A Steering Committee of scientists adapted the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change weight-of-evidence characterization for probability of causation based upon levels of available epidemiological and toxicological evidence for one or more chemicals contributing to disease by an endocrine disruptor mechanism. To evaluate the epidemiological evidence, the Steering Committee adapted the World Health Organization Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group criteria, whereas the Steering Committee adapted definitions recently promulgated by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency for evaluating laboratory and animal evidence of endocrine disruption. Expert panels used the Delphi method to make decisions on the strength of the data. Expert panels achieved consensus at least for probable (>20%) EDC causation for IQ loss and associated intellectual disability, autism, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, childhood obesity, adult obesity, adult diabetes, cryptorchidism, male infertility, and mortality associated with reduced testosterone. Accounting for probability of causation and using the midpoint of each range for probability of causation, Monte Carlo simulations produced a median cost of €157 billion (or $209 billion, corresponding to 1.23% of EU gross domestic product) annually across 1000 simulations. Notably, using the lowest end of the probability range for each relationship in the Monte Carlo simulations produced a median range of €109 billion that differed modestly from base case probability inputs. EDC exposures in the EU are likely to contribute substantially to disease and dysfunction across the life course with costs in the hundreds of billions of Euros per year. These estimates represent only those EDCs with the highest probability of causation; a broader analysis would have produced greater estimates of burden of disease and costs.

Obesity, diabetes, and associated costs of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in the European Union.

Obesity and diabetes are epidemic in the European Union (EU). Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is increasingly recognized as a contributor, independent of diet and physical activity. The objective was to estimate obesity, diabetes, and associated costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposures in the EU. An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using weight-of-evidence characterization adapted from that applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated for relevant EDCs, and biomarker data were organized from peer-reviewed studies to represent European exposure and burden of disease. Cost estimation as of 2010 utilized published cost estimates for childhood obesity, adult obesity, and adult diabetes. Setting, Patients and Participants, and Intervention: Cost estimation was performed from the societal perspective. The panel identified a 40% to 69% probability of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 1555 cases of overweight at age 10 (sensitivity analysis: 1555-5463) in 2010 with associated costs of €24.6 million (sensitivity analysis: €24.6-86.4 million). A 20% to 39% probability was identified for dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 28 200 cases of adult diabetes (sensitivity analysis: 28 200-56 400) with associated costs of €835 million (sensitivity analysis: €835 million-16.6 billion). The panel also identified a 40% to 69% probability of phthalate exposure causing 53 900 cases of obesity in older women and €15.6 billion in associated costs. Phthalate exposure was also found to have a 40% to 69% probability of causing 20 500 new-onset cases of diabetes in older women with €607 million in associated costs. Prenatal bisphenol A exposure was identified to have a 20% to 69% probability of causing 42 400 cases of childhood obesity, with associated lifetime costs of €1.54 billion. EDC exposures in the EU contribute substantially to obesity and diabetes, with a moderate probability of >€18 billion costs per year. This is a conservative estimate; the results emphasize the need to control EDC exposures.

Assessment of occupational cancer: important facts to consider

Background | Persons suffering from malignant tumors who had been exposed to carcinogens at their workplace must be compensated if occupational exposure probably caused the disease. However, the assessment of the causes of cancers is particularly difficult.Method | For the evaluation the authors analyzed selectively researched literature and considered publications of the German Social Accident Insurance and legal regulations.Result | Often the quantification of the occupational exposure is not possible. Cumulative exposures neglect important factors, e.g. high peak concentrations. Even in the general population exposure to noxious agents occurs. This raises the question what amount of occupational exposure must be considered as sufficient for compensation and how non-occupational factors, such as genetic susceptibility, should influence the expert's opinion. Syncancerogenetic effects are currently not sufficiently considered in the legal ordinance on occupational diseases.Conclusion | At best, only a very rough estimate of the probability of causation can be stated. If there is insufficient scientific evidence then there is a need of "makeshift" recommendations within the social consensus, which occupational exposure is considered to be relevant for occupational disease. If there are no reliable data on occupational exposure due to failure of the employer, this should not be stacked against the insured.

Genomic instability and radiation risk in molecular pathways to colon cancer.

Colon cancer is caused by multiple genomic alterations which lead to genomic instability (GI). GI appears in molecular pathways of microsatellite instability (MSI) and chromosomal instability (CIN) with clinically observed case shares of about 15–20% and 80–85%. Radiation enhances the colon cancer risk by inducing GI, but little is known about different outcomes for MSI and CIN. Computer-based modelling can facilitate the understanding of the phenomena named above. Comprehensive biological models, which combine the two main molecular pathways to colon cancer, are fitted to incidence data of Japanese a-bomb survivors. The preferred model is selected according to statistical criteria and biological plausibility. Imprints of cell-based processes in the succession from adenoma to carcinoma are identified by the model from age dependences and secular trends of the incidence data. Model parameters show remarkable compliance with mutation rates and growth rates for adenoma, which has been reported over the last fifteen years. Model results suggest that CIN begins during fission of intestinal crypts. Chromosomal aberrations are generated at a markedly elevated rate which favors the accelerated growth of premalignant adenoma. Possibly driven by a trend of Westernization in the Japanese diet, incidence rates for the CIN pathway increased notably in subsequent birth cohorts, whereas rates pertaining to MSI remained constant. An imbalance between number of CIN and MSI cases began to emerge in the 1980s, whereas in previous decades the number of cases was almost equal. The CIN pathway exhibits a strong radio-sensitivity, probably more intensive in men. Among young birth cohorts of both sexes the excess absolute radiation risk related to CIN is larger by an order of magnitude compared to the MSI-related risk. Observance of pathway-specific risks improves the determination of the probability of causation for radiation-induced colon cancer in individual patients, if their exposure histories are known.

Space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station missions.

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate.

Uncertainties in the Estimation of Radiation Risks and Probability of Disease Causation, NCRP Report No. 171.

Uncertainties in the Estimation of Radiation Risks and Probability of Disease Causation, NCRP Report No. 171. National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Bethesda, MD, 2012. 418 pp. Price: $155.00. ISBN: 9780983545019 (hardcover).

Assessing Causes for Individuals

In commenting on Dawid, Faigman, and Fienberg, the author contrasts the proposed parameter, the probability of causation, to other parameters in the causal inference literature, specifically the probability of necessity discussed by Pearl, and Robins and Greenland, and Pearl’s probability of sufficiency. This article closes with a few comments about the difficulties of estimation of parameters related to individual causation.