Probability Of Child Research Articles

Variation in hepatitis B immunization coverage rates associated with provider practices after the temporary suspension of the birth dose

BackgroundIn 1999, the American Academy of Pediatrics and U.S. Public Health Service recommended suspending the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine due to concerns about potential mercury exposure. A previous report found that overall national hepatitis B vaccination coverage rates decreased in association with the suspension. It is unknown whether this underimmunization occurred uniformly or was associated with how providers changed their practices for the timing of hepatitis B vaccine doses. We evaluate the impact of the birth dose suspension on underimmunization for the hepatitis B vaccine series among 24-month-olds in five large provider groups and describe provider practices potentially associated with underimmunization following the suspension.MethodsRetrospective cohort study of children enrolled in five large provider groups in the United States (A-E). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between the birth dose suspension and a child's probability of being underimmunized at 24 months for the hepatitis B vaccine series.ResultsPrior to July 1999, the percent of children who received a hepatitis B vaccination at birth varied widely (3% to 90%) across the five provider groups. After the national recommendation to suspend the hepatitis B birth dose, the percent of children who received a hepatitis B vaccination at birth decreased in all provider groups, and this trend persisted after the policy was reversed. The most substantial decreases were observed in the two provider groups that shifted the first hepatitis B dose from birth to 5–6 months of age. Accounting for temporal trend, children in these two provider groups were significantly more likely to be underimmunized for the hepatitis B series at 24 months of age if they were in the birth dose suspension cohort compared with baseline (Group D OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 – 4.4; Group E OR 3.1, 95% CI 2.3 – 4.2). This represented 6% more children in Group D and 9% more children in Group E who were underimmunized in the suspension cohort compared with baseline. Children in the reversal cohort in these groups remained significantly more likely to be underimmunized compared with baseline. In contrast, in a third provider group where the typical timing of the third dose was unchanged and in two other provider groups whose hepatitis B vaccination schedules were unaffected by the birth dose suspension, hepatitis B vaccination coverage either was maintained or improved.ConclusionWhen the hepatitis B birth dose was suspended, provider groups that moved the first dose of vaccination to 5–6 months of age or later had decreases in hepatitis B vaccine coverage at 24 months. These findings suggest that as vaccine policy changes occur, providers could attempt to minimize underimmunization by adopting vaccination schedules that minimize delays in the recommended timing of vaccine doses.

Environmental tobacco smoke in Norwegian homes, 1995 and 2001: changes in children's exposure and parents attitudes and health risk awareness

The aims of the present study were to assess changes between 1995 and 2001 in the prevalence of child exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), attitudes towards ETS among parents of small children and awareness among parents regarding the potential hazards of passive smoking to children. A questionnaire, along with a stamped, addressed envelope, was sent to a stratified random sample of 1000 households in Norway containing children aged 3 years old at the time of the investigation (May 1995 and August 2001). The prevalence of households containing smokers was similar in the two study periods. However, households reporting exposure of children to ETS fell from 32% in 1995 to 18% in 2001. Health-risk awareness had significantly increased in households containing smokers. In both surveys, the probability of children being exposed to ETS was positively correlated with the number of parents smoking, and inversely correlated to strength of health-risk awareness, negative attitudes towards ETS and length of household education. Increasing parents' awareness of the health risk of ETS exposure to children may significantly reduce children's ETS exposure.

Income, family characteristics, and physical violence toward children

Objective: This paper discusses the ways in which existing microeconomic theories of partner abuse, intra-family bargaining, and distribution of resources within families may contribute to our current understanding of physical child abuse. The empirical implications of this discussion are then tested on data from the 1985 National Family Violence Survey (NFVS) in order to estimate the effects of income, family characteristics, and state characteristics on physical violence toward children. Methodology: The sample consists of 2,760 families with children from the NFVS. Probit and ordered probit models are used to explore relationships between income, family characteristics, state characteristics, and physical violence toward children among single-parent and two-parent families. Results: In both single-parent and two-parent families, depression, maternal alcohol consumption, and history of family violence affect children's probabilities of being abused. Additionally, income is significantly related to violence toward children in single-parent families. Conclusions: These results reinforce earlier findings that demographic characteristics, maternal depression, maternal alcohol use, and intra-family patterns of violence may largely contribute to child abuse. This research also suggests that income may play a substantially more important role in regard to parental violence in single-parent families than in two-parent families.

Temperament and friendship in preschool-aged children

The influence of three components of temperament (activity level, impulsivity, and soothability) on children's friendships was investigated. Children (40 girls, 35 boys) aged 43 to 69 months responded to a sociometric interview and teachers provided temperament ratings. The probability of children choosing particular classmates as friends was evaluated based on the genders and temperaments of the dyad. A logistic choice model revealed that the choice of friends is highly influenced by gender, high impulsivity, and high soothability. Furthermore, the gender of the chooser and the activity level of the friend interacted such that girls chose low activity level friends and boys chose high activity level friends. In addition, the likelihood of a child being chosen as a friend based on gender and temperament was significantly correlated with popularity for girls, but not for boys.

A SCALE FOR ASSESSING PROBABILISTIC THINKING AND THE REPRESENTATIVENESS TENDENCY

We report a study of children's probability conceptions and misconceptions using a diagnostic instrument developed from the literature on the representativeness heuristic. Rasch measurement methodology was used to develop the 13-item open response instrument with a sample (n=116) of 12-15 year olds. The result is that a hierarchy of responses at two levels is confirmed for this sample, and a third level is hypothesised. Each level is characterised by the ability to overcome typical 'representativeness' effects, namely 'recency', 'random-similarity' (at level 1), 'base-rate frequency' and 'sample size' (at level 2-3). The validity of our interpretations was tested and some anomalies were identified through clinical interviews with children making the errors (n=8). Another Rasch ability measure, which we named the 'representativeness tendency', was constructed from 11 multiple-choice errors.

Coregulation of Balance Between Children's Prosocial Approaches and Acts of Compliance: A Pathway to Mother-Child Cooperation?

Examined the free-field interaction of 32 mother-child dyads who volunteered to participate in a 1-hr home observation. Observers coded mother instructions, child compliance, and child prosocial approaches plus mothers' social attention as potential reinforcers for the children's compliance and social approaches. Herrnstein's matching law was used to analyze covariations between mothers' attention and the children's 2 responses. This analysis was followed by correlational and sequential probability analyses to determine linkages between these 2 child responses and the children's willingness to obey their mothers' instructions. Results showed consistent matching between mothers' social attention and the children's production of prosocial approaches and acts of compliance. An index of the proportions of these 2 responses also covaried with the children's compliance probabilities, and the prosocial approach component was the direct covariate. These findings are discussed within an interactional synchrony framework in which children's willingness to obey their mothers is influenced by opportunities for the dyad to engage each other in specific forms of social interaction.

Timeliness in the Adoptive Placement of Photolisted Children

ABSTRACT This study uses information from the New York State (NYS) Adoption Photolisting Service, the Blue Books, to determine the characteristics of the hardest-to-place children, factors related to timeliness in the adoptive placement of listed children, and the efficacy of photolisting updates in impacting placement probabilities. The data for this study consist of computerized records on all children photolisted in NYS from 1976 to 1997. Results indicate that children experiencing significant delays in placement are more likely to be male, black, older at first listing, have mild or severe psychological problems or multiple problems requiring total care and to have strong emotional ties to nonadopting adults in their lives. Members of sibling groups listed in the Blue Books are placed more quickly. Even after controlling for time dependency and unobserved heterogeneity, results indicate that updating a photolisting has no significant impact on increasing a child's probability of placement. Implications of study findings for administrative practice are discussed.

Children's Probability Intuitions: Understanding the Expected Value of Complex Gambles

Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome--a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences--many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision.

Normal neonatal cerebral ultrasonography in preterm infants - Is it possible to calm down the parents?

OBJECTIVE: To verify the predictive values of neonatal cerebral ultrasonography for motor and cognitive development of very low birth weight preterm babies after twelve months correct age. METHODS: The population studied was a cohort of preterm babies with birth weight less than 1,500g, who had been admitted in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Instituto Fernandes Figueira, and were followed to 12-30 months corrected age for prematurity. A cerebral ultrasonography was performed before discharge. The results were classified as normal and abnormal (parenchymal hemorrhage, porencephaly, periventricular leucomalacia, ventricular dilatation). The babies were followed in the Follow-up Clinic and between 12-30 months correct age they underwent a neurological assessment with observation of the acquisition of motor milestones and submitted to Bayley Scales of Development. RESULTS: We studied 83 babies. Cerebral ultrasonography was normal in 68 babies (81.9%) and abnormal in 15 (18.8%). With a mean age of 21 months, 63 children (75.9%) had normal motor development and 20 (24.0%) had motor abnormalities. The cognitive development was normal in 68 children (81.9%). The negative predictive value of the cerebral ultrasonography for motor development was 85.3%, and for cognitive development, 86.8%. The positive predictive value of the cerebral ultrasonography for motor development was 66.7% and for cognitive development, 42.9%. CONCLUSIONS: The negative predictive values were greater than the positive predictive values in both areas of development. The probability for children with normal neonatal ultrasonography to have normal motor and cognitive development is greater than 85%.

Motion detection, letter position encoding, and single word reading

Recent research has shown that many people with dyslexia find it unusually difficult to detect flickering or moving visual stimuli, consistent with impaired processing in the magnocellular visual stream. Nonetheless, it remains controversial to suggest that reduced visual sensitivity of this kind might affect reading. We first show that the accuracy of letter position encoding may depend on input from the magnocellular pathway. We then suggest that when children read, impaired magnocellular function may degrade information about where letters are positioned with respect to each other, leading to reading errors which contain sounds not represented in the printed word. We call these orthographically inconsistent nonsense errors letter errors. In an unselected sample of primary school children, we show that the probability of children making “letter” errors in a single word reading task was best explained by independent contributions from motion detection (magnocellular function) and phonological awareness (assessed by a spoonerism task). This result held even when controlling for chronological age, reading ability, and IQ. Together, these findings suggest that impaired magnocellular visual function, as well as phonological deficits, may affect reading.

Text integration and mathematical connections: A computer model of arithmetic word problem solving

Understanding arithmetic word problems involves a complex interaction of text comprehension and mathematical processes. This article presents a computer simulation designed to capture the working memory demands required in “bottomup” comprehension of arithmetic word problems. The simulation's sentence-level parser and text integration component reflect the importance of processing the problem from its original natural language presentation. Children's probability of solution was analyzed in exploratory regression analyses as a function of the simulation's sentence-level and text integration processes. Working memory variables measuring the combined effects of concepts to remember and text integration inferences account for a significant proportion of variance in children's solution probabilities across the first four grade levels (K-3). Consistent with previous results from others, which highlighted the significance of small changes in problem wording, the simulation offers a process-oriented perspective as to why natural language presentation constrains the comprehension of mathematical relationships.

Childhood injury: Significance and prevention strategies

Unintentional preventable injury is the number one killer of our children. Each year more children die of injuries than of all childhood diseases combined. It is important for nurses to understand the epidemiology and significance of childhood injury. This article discusses developmental and environmental factors that influence the child's probability of sustaining an unintentional injury and offers suggestions for client, family, and community injury prevention efforts for nurses.

Text Integration and Mathematical Connections: A Computer Model of Arithmetic Word Problem Solving

Understanding arithmetic word problems involves a complex interaction of text comprehension and mathematical processes. This article presents a computer simulation designed to capture the working memory demands required in “bottomup” comprehension of arithmetic word problems. The simulation's sentence‐level parser and text integration component reflect the importance of processing the problem from its original natural language presentation. Children's probability of solution was analyzed in exploratory regression analyses as a function of the simulation's sentence‐level and text integration processes. Working memory variables measuring the combined effects of concepts to remember and text integration inferences account for a significant proportion of variance in children's solution probabilities across the first four grade levels (K‐3). Consistent with previous results from others, which highlighted the significance of small changes in problem wording, the simulation offers a process‐oriented perspective as to why natural language presentation constrains the comprehension of mathematical relationships.

Resource competition and reproduction

A family reconstitution study of the Krummhörn population (Ostfriesland, Germany, 1720-1874) reveals that infant mortality and children's probabilities of marrying or emigrating unmarried are affected by the number of living same-sexed sibs in farmers' families but not in the families of landless laborers. We interpret these results in terms of a "local resource competition" model in which resource-holding families are obliged to manipulate the reproductive future of their offspring. In contrast, families that lack resources have no need to manipulate their offspring and are more likely to benefit from allowing their offspring to capitalize on whatever opportunities to reproduce present themselves.

Chronic family adversity and infant attachment security.

A beginning step in the prevention of psychopathology in children is the identification of conditions and events associated with a disproportionately high incidence of behavior problems. Rutter, Cox, Tupling, Berger and Yule (1975a, British Journal of Psychiatry, 126, 493-509) have reported a dramatic increase in the probability of children's adjustment difficulties as a function of multiple family stressors. However, this association has never been tested with infants. Among instruments of infant behavior, attachment classification has been found to be a significant predictor of later adjustment problems, particularly among low-income samples. The present investigation examines the relation between six significant familial stressors and infant attachment security in a sample of 100 low-income parent-infant dyads. Family stressors included parental criminality, maternal depressive symptomatology, maternal personality risk, overcrowding in the home, and the quality of the relationship with a significant other. Cumulative family adversity was found to differentiate secure from insecure infants, but only among families with three or four stressors present. There also was moderate support for one hypothesis derived from attachment theory, namely that stressors more closely associated with maternal functioning are more common among families with insecurely attached infants. Conceptual links between stressors and attachment are discussed, including pathways by which chronic stressors may interfere with the formation and maintenance of secure mother-infant attachment relations.

High Reported Spontaneous Stuttering Recovery Rates

The families of 21 children who stuttered were contacted 6 to 8 years after their child first was diagnosed as needing intervention for stuttering. The vast majority of these children still were exhibiting a stuttering problem at the time of reassessment. Based on the findings of this survey, there may be reason to question or dispute the high spontaneous recovery rates reported in the literature. Early intervention for the child who stutters during the preschool and elementary school years is encouraged in order to increase a child's probability of coping with a stuttering problem that may not be resolved on its own.

Pediatric coefficients for TRISS analysis.

We computed regression coefficients for TRISS analysis for all 4271 pediatric patients (aged 1 through 14 years) with complete data from the Major Trauma Outcome Study. We then compared predicted pediatric and adult TRISS survival probability norms. There were no statistically significant differences in the predicted and actual numbers of survivors using either norm. Differences in discrimination and reliability between the two norms were minimal. The study confirmed that the TRISS adult blunt norm is highly discriminating and reliable in predicting survival probabilities for pediatric patients. Given that both norms were equally good predictors, and the importance of a consistent system to evaluate trauma care, the authors recommend the continued use of the adult blunt trauma norm for estimating survival probability in children.

Cost/benefit oriented parental investment by high status families: The Krummhörn case

Infant and child mortality in 18th and 19th century Krummhörn exhibits a remarkable feature: significantly more daughters than sons of comparably prosperous high status farmers achieve adulthood. We interpret this difference as being the outcome of differential parental care reflecting varying reproductive perspectives and social role expectations, to which sons and daughters from farmer families were exposed. This is verified by sex differences in the children's probability of marrying and their differing chances of social persistence. Against the background of severely restricted reproductive opportunities and recognizably higher upbringing costs for a son, parental underinvestment in the survival of sons can be best understood as an economically motivated measure in the course of a farmer's efforts to concentrate his property and to maintain his family's social status. At the same time, such a scenario also had a biological adaptive value, because it contributed to the intergenerational perpetuation of above average chances of life and reproduction, and hence, to the genetic persistence of the farmer families.

Motivational Determinants of Children's Probability Learning

Abstract We studied performance on the probability-learning task, a discrimination task with three alternatives, only one of which gets 66% reinforcement. The goals were to examine the relations of maximizing—namely, choosing the reinforced alternative—to success-oriented motivational variables and IQs in the two genders and in two age groups. The Wechsler-Bellevue test (Lieblich, Ben-Shahar, & Ninio, 1975) and tasks assessing probability learning, expectancy of success, delay of gratification, and risk-taking were administered individually. Correlations, factor analyses, and multiple regression analyses showed that maximizing was correlated negatively with the motivational variables in both age groups and that in combination with them it accounted for the bulk of the variance. It also correlated negatively with IQ more in older subjects than in younger subjects. We also addressed the multiple motivational determinants of maximizing and the direct cognitive and indirect motivational impact of IQ on perfor...

P300 and probability in children

The P300 event-related brain potential (ERP) was elicited in three groups of 12 children each, ages 5–9, 10–14, and 15–19 years. A simple auditory task was employed in which subjects indicated with a finger movement when a randomly occurring target tone (high pitch) was presented in a series of standard (low pitch) tones. The probability of the target tone was varied across conditions at 0.10, 0.30, or 0.50 to determine if P300 amplitude would respond similarly across age groups. Immediate memory capacity was measured with forward and reverse digit spans. P300 amplitude increased with decreases in target stimulus probability for each age group and also tended to become larger with age. P300 latency decreased in the same fashion across probability levels as age increased. Digit span demonstrated the usual increase with age. The results suggest that cognitive development is indexed by decreases in P300 latency, and that P300 amplitude changes from the probability of the target stimulus are similar across age groups. The implications for the theoretical interpretation of the P300 and application of ERPs for evaluating cognitive development are discussed.