Probability Of Recall Research Articles

Visual working memory and sensory processing in autistic children

While atypical sensory processing is one of the more ubiquitous symptoms in autism spectrum disorder, the exact nature of these sensory issues remains unclear, with different studies showing either enhanced or deficient sensory processing. Using a well-established continuous cued-recall task that assesses visual working memory, the current study provides novel evidence reconciling these apparently discrepant findings. Autistic children exhibited perceptual advantages in both likelihood of recall and recall precision relative to their typically-developed peers. When autistic children did make errors, however, they showed a higher probability of erroneously binding a given colour with the incorrect spatial location. These data align with neural-architecture models for feature binding in visual working memory, suggesting that atypical population-level neural noise in the report dimension (colour) and cue dimension (spatial location) may drive both the increase in probability of recall and precision of colour recall as well as the increase in proportion of binding errors when making an error, respectively. These changes are likely to impact core symptomatology associated with autism, as perceptual binding and working memory play significant roles in higher-order tasks, such as communication.

Noise in Neurons and Synapses Enables Reliable Associative Memory Storage in Local Cortical Circuits.

Neural networks in the brain can function reliably despite various sources of errors and noise present at every step of signal transmission. These sources include errors in the presynaptic inputs to the neurons, noise in synaptic transmission, and fluctuations in the neurons’ postsynaptic potentials (PSPs). Collectively they lead to errors in the neurons’ outputs which are, in turn, injected into the network. Does unreliable network activity hinder fundamental functions of the brain, such as learning and memory retrieval? To explore this question, this article examines the effects of errors and noise on the properties of model networks of inhibitory and excitatory neurons involved in associative sequence learning. The associative learning problem is solved analytically and numerically, and it is also shown how memory sequences can be loaded into the network with a biologically more plausible perceptron-type learning rule. Interestingly, the results reveal that errors and noise during learning increase the probability of memory recall. There is a trade-off between the capacity and reliability of stored memories, and, noise during learning is required for optimal retrieval of stored information. What is more, networks loaded with associative memories to capacity display many structural and dynamical features observed in local cortical circuits in mammals. Based on the similarities between the associative and cortical networks, this article predicts that connections originating from more unreliable neurons or neuron classes in the cortex are more likely to be depressed or eliminated during learning, while connections onto noisier neurons or neuron classes have lower probabilities and higher weights.

Biomarkers of memory variability in traumatic brain injury.

Traumatic brain injury is a leading cause of cognitive disability and is often associated with significant impairment in episodic memory. In traumatic brain injury survivors, as in healthy controls, there is marked variability between individuals in memory ability. Using recordings from indwelling electrodes, we characterized and compared the oscillatory biomarkers of mnemonic variability in two cohorts of epilepsy patients: a group with a history of moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (n = 37) and a group of controls without traumatic brain injury (n = 111) closely matched for demographics and electrode coverage. Analysis of these recordings demonstrated that increased high-frequency power and decreased theta power across a broad set of brain regions mark periods of successful memory formation in both groups. As features in a logistic-regression classifier, spectral power biomarkers effectively predicted recall probability, with little difference between traumatic brain injury patients and controls. The two groups also displayed similar patterns of theta-frequency connectivity during successful encoding periods. These biomarkers of successful memory, highly conserved between traumatic brain injury patients and controls, could serve as the basis for novel therapies that target disordered memory across diverse forms of neurological disease.

Age differences in the precision of memory at short and long delays.

Age differences are well established for many memory tasks assessing both short-term and long-term memory. However, how age differences in performance vary with increasing delay between study and test is less clear. Here, we report two experiments in which participants studied a continuous sequence of object-location pairings. Test events were intermixed such that participants were asked to recall the precise location of an object following a variable delay. Older adults exhibit a greater degree of error (distance between studied and recalled locations) relative to younger adults at short (0-2 intervening events) and longer delays (10-25 intervening events). Mixture modeling of the distribution of recall error suggests that older adults do not fail to recall information at a significantly higher rate than younger adults. Instead, what they do recall appears to be less precise. Follow-up analyses demonstrated that this age difference emerges following only one or two intervening events between study and test. These findings are consistent with the suggestion that aging does not greatly impair recall from the focus of attention but that age differences emerge once information is displaced from this highly accessible state. Further, we suggest that age differences in the precision of memory, but not the probability of successful recall, may be due to the use of more gist-like representations in this task. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Nonintrusive Elevator System Fault Detection Using Learned Traffic Patterns

A new method for nonintrusive elevator fault detection is presented. A computationally efficient algorithm for implementing the method is also proposed. The method is employed to detect when the elevator has been stationary for an unusually long period of time compared to historical traffic load patterns. This information can be used for fault detection but also indirectly to monitor the condition of the doors. The traffic load on the elevator is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, and a generalized linear model is used to describe how the intensity of the process varies over time. A statistical hypothesis test is then used to determine if the elevator has been stationary for an unusually long time. The application of the proposed method is illustrated by an example where the detected faults are compared with the elevator service log. All faults were detected long before the service company was notified by the facility owner. Furthermore, based on the evaluation of 30 weeks of data, the method achieves a precision of 0.82 at a recall probability of 0.80.

Exploring word memorability: How well do different word properties explain item free-recall probability?

What makes some words more memorable than others? Words can vary in many dimensions, and a variety of lexical, semantic, and affective properties have previously been associated with variability in recall performance. Free recall data were used from 147 participants across 20 experimental sessions from the Penn Electrophysiology of Encoding and Retrieval Study (PEERS) data set, across 1,638 words. Here, I consider how well 20 different word properties—across lexical, semantic, and affective dimensions—relate to free recall. Semantic dimensions, particularly animacy (better memory for living), usefulness (with respect to survival; better memory for useful), and size (better memory for larger) demonstrated the strongest relationships with recall probability. These key results were then examined and replicated in the free recall data from Lau, Goh, and Yap (Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 71, 2207–2222, 2018), which had 532 words and 116 participants. This comprehensive investigation of a variety of word memorability demonstrates that semantic and function-related psycholinguistic properties play an important role in verbal memory processes.

An Analytic Investigation of the Drug Formulation-Based Recalls in the USA: See More Beyond the Literal.

High numbers of drug recalls persist despite the tremendous time and effort invested by pharmaceutical organizations and regulatory bodies such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to ensure the quality of safe and effective medicines for the patient. It is imperative to better understand the underlying risk factors of drug formulation-based recalls to best protect the patient from poor quality drugs. Increased knowledge of underlying factors of formulation risk can also help inform the future design and development of drugs. In this study, we used a text mining technique with Python to parse the data and examine drug recalls from the aspect of administration route, dosage form, release mechanism, market type, pharmacologic class, and excipients. Observational analysis of the recalls revealed both high- and low-risk factors for the formulation-based recalls. Higher risk, or an increased probability of a formulation-based recall, was associated with factors such as extended release mechanism, capsule dosage form, oral route of administration, and an increased number of excipients, while lower risk of formulation-based recalls was associated with other factors including the new drug application market type, immediate release mechanism, and solution dosage form. In addition, the factors did not work independently, and we observed interactions among variables. For example, the release mechanism modified the effect of market type, administration route, and dosage form. This study will help inform the future design of quality drug products by pharmaceutical organizations and assist risk-based oversight by regulatory organizations, such as FDA, to ensure patient safety.

The effect of gestational age on women's preference for quality goods

It is a well-established fact that hormonal changes significantly influence the consumer behaviors and their purchase intentions. However, attention to the conspicuous buying due to the mood swings, as a result of hormonal changes, during the pregnancy have been largely ignored in the literature. The current research aims to examine the prospective association of conspicuous purchase intentions with hormonal changes and mood swings during the pregnancy. An experimental procedure was used to assess the data collected from pregnant women (n = 116) and the hypotheses were analyzed using recall probability and recall position measures. The hormonal changes during the pregnancy were analyzed in three stages known as pregnancy trimesters suggested by the relevant literature (Trimester-1 = 39, Trimister-2 = 36 and Trimester-3 = 41). The respondents were exposed to visual attention of specifically designed images with a unique combination of the status and functional products. The ROC values for Trimester 2 is higher in all 4 graphs (0.923, 0.960, 0.892, and 0.923) respectively than Trimester 1 and 3. Findings revealed that the women purchase preferences shift as pregnancy move from one trimester to another. Women pay more attention to status products during the 2nd trimester as compared to 1st and 3rd trimesters of pregnancy.

Individualising Graphical Layouts with Predictive Visual Search Models

In domains where users are exposed to large variations in visuo-spatial features among designs, they often spend excess time searching for common elements (features) on an interface. This article contributes individualised predictive models of visual search, and a computational approach to restructure graphical layouts for an individual user such that features on a new, unvisited interface can be found quicker. It explores four technical principles inspired by the human visual system (HVS) to predict expected positions of features and create individualised layout templates: (I) the interface with highest frequency is chosen as the template; (II) the interface with highest predicted recall probability (serial position curve) is chosen as the template; (III) the most probable locations for features across interfaces are chosen (visual statistical learning) to generate the template; (IV) based on a generative cognitive model, the most likely visual search locations for features are chosen (visual sampling modelling) to generate the template. Given a history of previously seen interfaces, we restructure the spatial layout of a new (unseen) interface with the goal of making its features more easily findable. The four HVS principles are implemented in Familiariser, a web browser that automatically restructures webpage layouts based on the visual history of the user. Evaluation of Familiariser (using visual statistical learning) with users provides first evidence that our approach reduces visual search time by over 10%, and number of eye-gaze fixations by over 20%, during web browsing tasks.

Outpatients’ recall of information when provided with an audio recording: A mixed-methods study

ObjectiveWhile the ability to recall medical information is crucial, it is known to be a considerable challenge for many patients. Consequently, we aimed to investigate whether replay could enhance information recall and to explore the extent of information recall in a group of Danish outpatients. MethodsThis study utilized a mixed-methods approach and evaluated patients’ recall by comparing seven key themes between the interviews and the recordings. A total of 33 patients were included from three outpatient clinics. ResultsOverall, 61% of the information was recalled. However, the study could not confirm an effect of replay on patients’ information recall. Information recall was associated with age and information load. Accordingly, patients younger than 70 years had a 2.46 higher probability of recall (95%CI: 1.1–5.5, p = 0.027), whereas an increase in information load negatively influenced recall. ConclusionThe study power is insufficient to provide a definite answer to the hypothesis regarding a positive association between replay and recall. Patients’ information recall depended on the information theme, their age, and amount of information provided in the consultation. Practice implicationsThe critical consequences of information overload necessitate an increased awareness of how to prioritise information, particularly when communicating with older patients.

Imagery-Mediated Verbal Learning Depends on Vividness-Familiarity Interactions: The Possible Role of Dualistic Resting State Network Activity Interference.

Using secondary database analysis, we tested whether the (implicit) familiarity of eliciting noun-cues and the (explicit) vividness of corresponding imagery exerted additive or interactive influences on verbal learning, as measured by the probability of incidental noun recall and image latency times (RTs). Noun-cues with incongruent levels of vividness and familiarity (high/low; low/high, respectively) at encoding were subsequently associated at retrieval with the lowest recall probabilities, while noun-cues related with congruent levels (high/high; low/low) were associated with higher recall probabilities. RTs in the high vividness and high familiarity grouping were significantly faster than all other subsets (low/low, low/high, high/low) which did not significantly differ among each other. The findings contradict: (1) associative theories predicting positive monotonic relationships between memory strength and learning; and (2) non-monotonic plasticity hypothesis (NMPH), aiming at generalizing the non-monotonic relationship between a neuron’s excitation level and its synaptic strength to broad neural networks. We propose a dualistic neuropsychological model of memory consolidation that mimics the global activity in two large resting-state networks (RSNs), the default mode network (DMN) and the task-positive-network (TPN). Based on this model, we suggest that incongruence and congruence between vividness and familiarity reflect, respectively, competition and synergy between DMN and TPN activity. We argue that competition or synergy between these RSNs at the time of stimulus encoding disproportionately influences long term semantic memory consolidation in healthy controls. These findings could assist in developing neurophenomenological markers of core memory deficits currently hypothesized to be shared across multiple psychopathological conditions.

Different features are stored independently in visual working memory but mediated by object-based representations

The question of whether visual working memory (VWM) stores individual features or bound objects as basic units is actively debated. Evidence exists for both feature-based and object-based storages, as well as hierarchically organized representations maintaining both types of information at different levels. One argument for feature-based storage is that features belonging to different dimensions (e.g., color and orientations) can be stored without interference suggesting independent capacities for every dimension. Here, we studied whether the lack of cross-dimensional interference reflects genuinely independent feature storages or mediated by common objects. In three experiments, participants remembered and recalled the colors and orientations of sets of objects. We independently manipulated set sizes within each feature dimension (making colors and orientations either identical or differing across objects). Critically, we assigned to-be-remembered colors and orientations either to same spatially integrated or to different spatially separated objects. We found that the precision and recall probability within each dimension was not affected by set size manipulations in a different dimension when the features belonged to integrated objects. However, manipulations with color set sizes did affect orientation memory when the features were separated. We conclude therefore that different feature dimensions can be encoded and stored independently but the advantage of the independent storages are mediated at the object-based level. This conclusion is consistent with the idea of hierarchically organized VWM.

Estimating menarcheal age distribution from partially recalled data.

In a cross-sectional study, adolescent and young adult females were asked to recall the time of menarche, if experienced. Some respondents recalled the date exactly, some recalled only the month or the year of the event, and some were unable to recall anything. We consider estimation of the menarcheal age distribution from this interval-censored data. A complicated interplay between age-at-event and calendar time, together with the evident fact of memory fading with time, makes the censoring informative. We propose a model where the probabilities of various types of recall would depend on the time since menarche. For parametric estimation, we model these probabilities using multinomial regression function. Establishing consistency and asymptotic normality of the parametric maximum likelihood estimator requires a bit of tweaking of the standard asymptotic theory, as the data format varies from case to case. We also provide a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator, propose a computationally simpler approximation, and establish the consistency of both these estimators under mild conditions. We study the small sample performance of the parametric and non-parametric estimators through Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, we provide a graphical check of the assumption of the multinomial model for the recall probabilities, which appears to hold for the menarcheal data set. Our analysis shows that the use of the partially recalled part of the data indeed leads to smaller confidence intervals of the survival function.

The Curious Case of the Arabic–English Bilingual Speaker with Substantial Rote Rehearsal Practice

Abstract The main goal of the present study was to determine whether the probability of correct and illusory recall of word lists varies with participants’ frequency of memorization and recitation practice. The ancillary goal was to determine whether the concurrent presentation of Arabic words and English translations would influence correct and illusory recall rates relative to monolingual presentation. The words in each list were selected to gravitate around a theme word, which was never presented. In this procedure, recall of the theme word was considered prima facie evidence of an illusory memory. Participants were Arabic–English bilingual speakers from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). No effects of bilingual presentation on correct and illusory recall were observed in Experiment 1, which relied on lists developed in the United States for monolingual English speakers, and in Experiment 3, which relied on culturally appropriate lists. However, bilingual presentation reduced generic semantic intrusions in Experiment 1. Participants’ illusory recall rates were lower than those of published norms gathered from English-speaking monolingual participants. In Experiment 1, generic semantic intrusions declined as the breadth of participants’ recitation practice increased. No other significant correlations were found between memory indices and performance or sentiment measures of rote rehearsal. The implications of the finding that a didactic and religious practice taught to KSA students from an early age has little impact on the retention of verbal information are discussed.

Enhancing human learning via spaced repetition optimization

Spaced repetition is a technique for efficient memorization which uses repeated review of content following a schedule determined by a spaced repetition algorithm to improve long-term retention. However, current spaced repetition algorithms are simple rule-based heuristics with a few hard-coded parameters. Here, we introduce a flexible representation of spaced repetition using the framework of marked temporal point processes and then address the design of spaced repetition algorithms with provable guarantees as an optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with jumps. For two well-known human memory models, we show that, if the learner aims to maximize recall probability of the content to be learned subject to a cost on the reviewing frequency, the optimal reviewing schedule is given by the recall probability itself. As a result, we can then develop a simple, scalable online spaced repetition algorithm, MEMORIZE, to determine the optimal reviewing times. We perform a large-scale natural experiment using data from Duolingo, a popular language-learning online platform, and show that learners who follow a reviewing schedule determined by our algorithm memorize more effectively than learners who follow alternative schedules determined by several heuristics.

Modelling and analysis of recall-based competing risks data

ABSTRACTIn this paper we consider the analysis of recall-based competing risks data. The chance of an individual recalling the exact time to event depends on the time of occurrence of the event and time of observation of the individual. In particular, it is assumed that the probability of recall depends on the time elapsed since the occurrence of an event. In this study we consider the likelihood-based inference for the analysis of recall-based competing risks data. The likelihood function is constructed by incorporating the information about the probability of recall. We consider the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the performance of the estimators. The proposed estimation procedure is applied to a real life data set.

Medial Temporal Lobe Amnesia Is Associated with a Deficit in Recovering Temporal Context.

Medial-temporal lobe (MTL) lesions are associated with severe impairments in episodic memory. In the framework of the temporal context model, the hypothesized mechanism for episodic memory is the reinstatement of a prior experienced context (i.e., "jump back in time"), which relies upon the MTL [Howard, M. W., Fotedar, M. S., Datey, A. V., & Hasselmo, M. E. The temporal context model in spatial navigation and relational learning: Toward a common explanation of medial temporal lobe function across domains. Psychological Review, 112, 75-116, 2005]. This hypothesis has proven difficult to test in amnesia because of the floor-level performance by patients in recall tasks. To circumvent this issue, in this study, we used a "looped-list" format, in which a set of verbal stimuli was presented multiple times in a consistent order. This allowed for comparison of statistical properties such as probability of first recall and lag-conditional response probability (lag-CRP) between amnesic patients and healthy controls. Results revealed that the lag-CRP, but not the probability of first recall, is altered in amnesia, suggesting a selective disruption of temporal contiguity. To further characterize the results, we fit a scale-invariant version of the temporal context model [Howard, M. W., Shankar, K. H., Aue, W. R., & Criss, A. H. A distributed representation of internal time. Psychological Review, 122, 24-53, 2015] to the probability of first recall and lag-CRP curves. The modeling results suggested that the deficit in temporal contiguity in amnesia is best described as a failure to recover temporal context. These results provide the first direct evidence for an impairment in a jump-back-in-time mechanism in patients with MTL amnesia.

A spacing account of negative recency in final free recall.

The well-known recency effect in immediate free recall reverses when subjects attempt to recall items studied and tested on a series of prior lists, as in the final-free-recall procedure (Craik, 1970). In this case, the last few items on each list are actually remembered less well than are the midlist items. Because dual-store theories of recall naturally predict negative recency, this phenomenon has long been cited as evidence favoring these models. In a final-free-recall study, we replicate the negative-recency effect for the within-list serial position curve and the positive-recency effect for the between-list serial position curve. Whereas we find prominent negative recency for items recalled early in the initial recall period, this effect is markedly reduced for items recalled later in the recall period. When considering initial recall as a second presentation of studied items, we find that the probability of final free recall increases as the number of items between initial presentation and initial recall increases. These results suggest that negative recency may reflect the beneficial effects of spaced practice, in which end-of-list items recalled early constitute massed repetitions and end-of-list items recalled late are spaced repetitions. To help distinguish between the spacing account and the prevailing dual-store, rehearsal-based account, we examined negative recency in continual-distractor free recall. Contrary to the dual-store account, but in accord with the spacing account, we find robust negative recency in continual-distractor free recall, which is greater for those items recalled early in output. (PsycINFO Database Record

Institutional differences and integration difficulties

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine how the location of a firm’s headquarters and component sourcing impact a firm’s responsiveness in a product-harm crisis in local market.Design/methodology/approachThe authors collected data on 1,251 vehicle recalls from 12 manufacturers, six in the USA, three in Germany, and three in Japan. All of the recalls occurred in the USA between 2002 and 2010. The time the product was first released into the marketplace was used as the starting point while the time the recall was initiated (if at all) was used to record the probability of the product recall over time. Specifically, a survival analysis with an accelerated failure time model was employed to examine the speed with which a product is recalled. The authors examined the impact of foreign composition using information provided by the American Automobile Labeling Act, which lists the proportion of each vehicle that is composed of domestic parts (USA/Canada) and foreign parts. Organizational characteristics (i.e. size, market share, assets, net income, and reputation) and recall size (i.e. number of affected vehicles) that might have an effect on time to recall were controlled for.FindingsThe authors found that firms headquartered outside the local market would take longer to issue a product recall than firms that were headquartered in the local market. Firm headquartered outside the local market can reduce the time taken to recall by sourcing parts from the local marketplace, rather than from abroad. Interestingly, even local firms are affected by the location of component sourcing, such that they take longer to issue a recall if they sourced parts from abroad.Originality/valueResearch in international marketing has examined the benefits of integration to firms, but has not studied the risks of integration. By highlighting the challenges of managing institutional differences and integration difficulties, the authors show that location of headquarters and the location from where components are sourced have an effect on firm responsiveness in product-harm crises. Further, the authors build on the global supply chain management literature that has shown the effect of upstream activities (i.e. foreign production) on downstream activities (i.e. product quality). Specifically, the authors show that upstream activities can not only affect product quality, but also the ability of firms to respond to those product qualities in a timely fashion.

Firm/product reputation and new-product recalls

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the rate of recall for new products vs established products and to explore the simultaneous impact of a firm’s reputation and a product’s reputation on the market response to a product recall.Design/methodology/approachThe authors first use an accelerated hazard model to establish that new products are more vulnerable to damage than established products. Once this is established, the authors use a hierarchical linear model to explore the simultaneous impact of the firm and product reputation on the market response to a product recall.FindingsThe findings indicate that new products have a greater probability of recall over time than existing products and after a product recall a positive firm reputation can negatively impact the firm and hence becomes a liability. However, when the product is first introduced, the product reputation can help offset any negative market response; the product reputation can therefore be an asset.Research limitations/implicationsNew products are more flawed than their established counterparts. A positive reputation can be a liability but a positive product reputation can offset the negative impact of the firm reputation and this is especially pertinent to new products.Originality/valueThe majority of prior research has focused on the reputation and assumed that the firm represented the product as well; the findings of this study reveal that the reputation of the product can have contrasting effects to the reputation of the firm.