Probability Of Local Extinction Research Articles

Effects of Thermal Heterogeneity and Egg Mortality on Differences in the Population Dynamics ofAedes aegypti(Diptera: Culicidae) Over Short Distances in Temperate Argentina

In temperate regions, the seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is mainly influenced by temperature, whereas the probability of local extinction depends on the egg mortality during the cold season. The aim of the current study was to assess the importance of temperature and egg mortality in determining the differences in the oviposition dynamics of Ae. aegypti between favorable and less favorable areas in Buenos Aires City (Argentina). Year-round temperature dynamics were monitored, and oviposition dynamics were experimentally studied with ovitraps at two sites. Daily egg mortality values were calculated from a previous study performed at the same sites. The relative contribution of the differences in temperature and egg mortality between sites to the oviposition dynamics was assessed by means of a mathematical stochastic population dynamics model for Ae. aegypti. The results showed higher temperature and lower daily egg mortality at the site where higher oviposition activity was recorded. A larger influence of temperature than of egg mortality on population abundance during most of the activity season was detected in the results of the simulations. Our results showed a temperature gradient that relates to the distance to the Río de la Plata river and contributes to explaining the spatial heterogeneity in Ae. aegypti population abundances previously reported. The hypothesis of local extinctions because of egg mortality during the winter was not supported by the present analysis. The differences between field oviposition dynamics and simulation results suggest that rainfall might also be an important variable under extremely dry conditions.

Large-scale occupancy surveys in East Antarctica discover new Adélie penguin breeding sites and reveal an expanding breeding distribution

AbstractKnowledge of spatial distribution is fundamental to ecological studies and crucial for conservation and management of species and biodiversity, but detailed, large-scale spatial data are lacking for most taxa. Although the Adélie penguin is one of the most intensively studied Antarctic vertebrates, spatial data that could aid in ecological study and conservation management are incomplete. We undertook a large-scale survey of the current breeding distribution of Adélie penguins along 3800 km of the East Antarctic coastline. The survey increased the number of known breeding locations by 50% and revealed that the breeding distribution has expanded in some parts of the survey region over the past two to three decades. The expanding breeding distribution may reflect underlying population dynamics of sustained growth and resultant density dependent effect on dispersal and movement from established breeding sites to new sites. The comprehensive, large-scale distribution data from this study will form a baseline for assessing any future changes in Adélie penguin breeding distribution, provide data for developing spatial models for predicting future changes in breeding distribution under plausible scenarios of environmental change, and contribute to the development of metapopulation models by providing estimates of local colonization and extinction probabilities under specific conditions of metapopulation change.

Dynamics of Breeding-Season Site Occupancy of the California Spotted Owl in Burned Forests

Abstract. Understanding how habitat disturbances such as forest fire affect local extinction and probability of colonization—the processes that determine site occupancy—is critical for developing forest management appropriate to conserving the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis), a subspecies of management concern. We used 11 years of breeding-season survey data from 41 California Spotted Owl sites burned in six forest fires and 145 sites in unburned areas throughout the Sierra Nevada, California, to compare probabilities of local extinction and colonization at burned and unburned sites while accounting for annual and site-specific variation in detectability. We found no significant effects of fire on these probabilities, suggesting that fire, even fire that burns on average 32% of suitable habitat at high severity within a California Spotted Owl site, does not threaten the persistence of the subspecies on the landscape. We used simulations to examine how different allocations of surv...

Networks of habitat patches in tsetse fly control: Implications of metapopulation structure on assessing local extinction probabilities

Controlling tsetse fly populations in much of sub-Saharan Africa is one of the great challenges in stopping the spread of trypanosomosis diseases in both humans and domestic livestock. Mathematical models have been used for informing control efforts against this fly. However, often these models are too simple and do not address spatial complexity. In this brief communication, network theory is used to construct a metapopulation model to test standard results from some of these models that derive female extinction probability and show that by adding spatial complexity of metapopulation theory the extinction probability of the flies change in biologically significant ways.

Local extinction in the bird assemblage in the greater Beijing area from 1877 to 2006.

Recent growth in industrialization and the modernization of agricultural activities, combined with human population growth, has greatly modified China’s natural environment, particularly in the vicinity of large cities. We compared avifauna checklists made between 1877 and 1938 with current checklists to determine the extent of local bird extinctions during the last century in the greater Beijing area. Our study shows that of the 411 bird species recorded from 1877–1938, 45 (10.9%) were no longer recorded from 2004–2006. Birds recorded as ‘rare’ in 1938 were more likely to have disappeared in subsequent years. Migrant status also influenced the probability of local bird extinction with winter migrants being the most affected class. Moreover, larger birds were more likely to have disappeared than smaller ones, potentially explained by differential ecological requirements and anthropogenic exploitation. Although our habitat descriptions and diet classification were not predictors of local bird extinction, the ecological processes driving local bird extinction are discussed in the light of historical changes that have impacted this region since the end of the 1930 s. Our results are of importance to the broader conservation of bird wildlife.

Climate change and the decline of a once common bird

Climate change is predicted to negatively impact wildlife through a variety of mechanisms including retraction of range. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and regional and global climate indices to examine the effects of climate change on the breeding distribution of the Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common species that is rapidly declining. We found that the range of the Rusty Blackbird retracted northward by 143 km since the 1960s and that the probability of local extinction was highest at the southern range margin. Furthermore, we found that the mean breeding latitude of the Rusty Blackbird was significant and positively correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a lag of six years. Because the annual distribution of the Rusty Blackbird is affected by annual weather patterns produced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, our results support the hypothesis that directional climate change over the past 40 years is contributing to the decline of the Rusty Blackbird. Our study is the first to implicate climate change, acting through range retraction, in a major decline of a formerly common bird species.

Facilitated movement over major roads is required to minimise extinction risk in an urban metapopulation of a gliding mammal

Context Urbanisation is recognised as a primary cause of biodiversity loss. Roads are an inherent element of this, creating partial or complete barriers to animal movement. Urban landscapes of eastern Australia are typified by a dense road network interspersed with remnant patches of bushland. Inter-patch movement by tree-dependent gliding mammals may be halted and, consequently, population viability threatened, when canopy gaps over roads exceed gliding ability. Aims We test the notion that a metapopulation of the squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis) in southern Brisbane can persist within a highly fragmented urban landscape with large road canopy gaps. Methods We used the population modelling software VORTEX to investigate the influence of inter-patch movement (dispersal) and wildfire on the probability of extinction. Wildfire is an inherent characteristic of this landscape. Key results Our modelling suggests that a lack of inter-patch movement as a result of road barriers, in tandem with wildfire, is associated with a high probability of local extinction. However, a small rate of inter-patch movement can substantially reduce the likelihood of extinction. Conclusions Road-crossing structures are the most plausible means available to link remnants to enable inter-patch movement for squirrel gliders in this landscape because of inadequate road-side tree height. Simulation studies such as the present study that test population viability are critical to convince land managers that action must be taken. Implications The need to conserve urban biodiversity will increase over time, so land managers must consider the likely benefits to population persistence conferred by installing wildlife crossing structures into existing roads.

Effects of rangeland management on the site occupancy dynamics of prairie‐chickens in a protected prairie preserve

AbstractWe investigated the site occupancy dynamics of greater prairie‐chickens at Konza Prairie Biological Station, a protected site in northeastern Kansas that is managed for ecological research. We surveyed the site during mid‐Mar to mid‐May, 1981–2008, and recorded detections of birds in a grid of 6.3 ha survey plots (n = 187 plots). We used multiseason occupancy models to estimate the probabilities of occupancy (ψ) and detection (p), and tested whether land cover in woody vegetation, and land use with prescribed fire or grazing management influenced the dynamic processes of site colonization and local extinction. Probability of detection per site was consistently <1 and varied among years (p = 0.12–0.82). Site occupancy of prairie‐chickens declined 40% over the study period from a high of ψ = 0.19 ± 0.02 SE in 1981 to a low of 0.11 ± 0.03 in 2008, despite protection from disturbance at leks and losses to harvest. We found that different sets of environmental factors impacted the probabilities of colonization and local extinction. Probability of colonization for an unoccupied site was negatively associated with the proportion of site occupied by woodland cover (β = −1.25), and was lower for grazed sites (β = −0.62). In contrast, probability of local extinction was affected by a weak interaction between grazing and average frequency of prescribed fire (β = −1.01), but model‐averaged slope coefficients were not statistically different than 0. To conserve prairie‐chickens, we recommend prairies be managed with combinations of prescribed fire and grazing that maintain a heterogeneous mosaic of prairie habitats, while preventing woody encroachment. To assess biotic responses to land management practices, field sampling should be based on occupancy models or similar techniques that account for imperfect detection. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Landscape genetics highlights the role of bank vole metapopulation dynamics in the epidemiology of Puumala hantavirus

Rodent host dynamics and dispersal are thought to be critical for hantavirus epidemiology as they determine pathogen persistence and transmission within and between host populations. We used landscape genetics to investigate how the population dynamics of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, the host of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), vary with forest fragmentation and influence PUUV epidemiology. We sampled vole populations within the Ardennes, a French PUUV endemic area. We inferred demographic features such as population size, isolation and migration with regard to landscape configuration. We next analysed the influence of M.glareolus population dynamics on PUUV spatial distribution. Our results revealed that the global metapopulation dynamics of bank voles were strongly shaped by landscape features, including suitable patch size and connectivity. Large effective size in forest might therefore contribute to the higher observed levels of PUUV prevalence. By contrast, populations from hedge networks highly suffered from genetic drift and appeared strongly isolated from all other populations. This might result in high probabilities of local extinction for both M.glareolus and PUUV. Besides, we detected signatures of asymmetric bank vole migration from forests to hedges. These movements were likely to sustain PUUV in fragmented landscapes. In conclusion, our study provided arguments in favour of source-sink dynamics shaping PUUV persistence and spread in heterogeneous, Western European temperate landscapes. It illustrated the potential contribution of landscape genetics to the understanding of the epidemiological processes occurring at this local scale.

Landscape matrix mediates occupancy dynamics of Neotropical avian insectivores

In addition to patch-level attributes (i.e., area and isolation), the nature of land cover between habitat patches (the matrix) may drive colonization and extinction dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Despite a long-standing recognition of matrix effects in fragmented systems, an understanding of the relative impacts of different types of land cover on patterns and dynamics of species occurrence remains limited. We employed multi-season occupancy models to determine the relative influence of patch area, patch isolation, within-patch vegetation structure, and landscape matrix on occupancy dynamics of nine Neotropical insectivorous birds in 99 forest patches embedded in four matrix types (agriculture, suburban development, bauxite mining, and forest) in central Jamaica. We found that within-patch vegetation structure and the matrix type between patches were more important than patch area and patch isolation in determining local colonization and local extinction probabilities, and that the effects of patch area, isolation, and vegetation structure on occupancy dynamics tended to be matrix and species dependent. Across the avian community, the landscape matrix influenced local extinction more than local colonization, indicating that extinction processes, rather than movement, likely drive interspecific differences in occupancy dynamics. These findings lend crucial empirical support to the hypothesis that species occupancy dynamics in fragmented systems may depend greatly upon the landscape context.

Estimating occupancy dynamics in an anuran assemblage from Louisiana, USA

AbstractEffective monitoring programs are designed to track changes in the distribution, occurrence, and abundance of species. We developed an extension of Royle and Kéry's (2007) single species model to estimate simultaneously temporal changes in probabilities of detection, occupancy, colonization, extinction, and species turnover using data on calling anuran amphibians, collected from 2002 to 2006 in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Louisiana, USA. During our 5‐year study, estimates of occurrence probabilities declined for all 12 species detected. These declines occurred primarily in conjunction with variation in estimates of local extinction probabilities (cajun chorus frog [Pseudacris fouquettei], spring peeper [P. crucifer], northern cricket frog [Acris crepitans], Cope's gray treefrog [Hyla chrysoscelis], green treefrog [H. cinerea], squirrel treefrog [H. squirella], southern leopard frog [Lithobates sphenocephalus], bronze frog [L. clamitans], American bullfrog [L. catesbeianus], and Fowler's toad [Anaxyrus fowleri]). For 2 species (eastern narrow‐mouthed toad [Gastrophryne carolinensis] and Gulf Coast toad [Incilius nebulifer]), declines in occupancy appeared to be a consequence of both increased local extinction and decreased colonization events. The eastern narrow‐mouthed toad experienced a 2.5‐fold increase in estimates of occupancy in 2004, possibly because of the high amount of rainfall received during that year, along with a decrease in extinction and increase in colonization of new sites between 2003 and 2004. Our model can be incorporated into monitoring programs to estimate simultaneously the occupancy dynamics for multiple species that show similar responses to ecological conditions. It will likely be an important asset for those monitoring programs that employ the same methods to sample assemblages of ecologically similar species, including those that are rare. By combining information from multiple species to decrease the variance on estimates of individual species, our results are advantageous compared to single‐species models. This feature enables managers and researchers to use an entire community, rather than just one species, as an ecological indicator in monitoring programs. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents

Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.

Non‐native species impacts on pond occupancy by an anuran

AbstractNon‐native fish and bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) are frequently cited as contributing to the decline of ranid frogs in the western United States, so we hypothesized that non‐native species, habitat, or a combination of these relate to the probability of local extinction for northern red‐legged frogs (Rana aurora) in Oregon, USA. We also hypothesized that the probability of colonization relates to land use, wetland size, or riparian forest. In a 5‐yr study, we found no support for an effect of non‐native species on northern red‐legged frogs. Instead, probability of local extinction decreased with the extent of emergent vegetation and riparian forest. This finding suggests that managers consider the role of habitat when confronting non‐native species problems. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Implementation of a long-term monitoring program of the ocellated lizard (Timon lepidus) population on Oleron Island

AbstractThe ocellated lizard Timon lepidus (Sauria; Lacertidae) has declined throughout most of its range. Habitat fragmentation and habitat loss seem to be mainly responsible for the species' decline. The ocellated lizard population of Oleron Island, confined to a longshore dune of 140 ha, is the subject of a long-term monitoring study established in 2007. The monitoring method consists of 70 plots (50 × 50 m) randomly placed within a study area divided into six distinct zones. Three surveys were conducted in the study area over the spring season of 2007. During each survey, we counted the individuals in each plot. These counts were analyzed with the PRESENCE 2.0 and the R package Unmarked software using two different modeling approaches, the 'site-occupancy model' and the 'N-mixture model'. Estimates resulting from our analyses indicated the proportion of occupied plots to be 0.76. Our results indicated that the ocellated lizard has a highly heterogeneous distribution on Oleron Island, with parts of the dune sheltering clusters of lizards, and other areas totally unoccupied. The population size was estimated to be 516 individuals (95% CI 248-783). The relative abundance of ocellated lizards on the island can be principally explained by the presence of permanent shelters (used both during winter and the lizards' active period), including rabbit and rodent burrows and artificial shelters. This monitoring survey will be replicated every three years to enable us to calculate the species' colonization and local extinction probabilities. These results will help in evaluating and guiding management and conservation measures.

Limits of large metapopulations with patch-dependent extinction probabilities

We propose a model for the presence/absence of a population in a collection of habitat patches. This model assumes that colonisation and extinction of the patches occur as distinct phases. Importantly, the local extinction probabilities are allowed to vary between patches. This permits an investigation of the effect of habitat degradation on the persistence of the population. The limiting behaviour of the model is examined as the number of habitat patches increases to ∞. This is done in the case where the number of patches and the initial number of occupied patches increase at the same rate, and for the case where the initial number of occupied patches remains fixed.

Limits of large metapopulations with patch-dependent extinction probabilities

We propose a model for the presence/absence of a population in a collection of habitat patches. This model assumes that colonisation and extinction of the patches occur as distinct phases. Importantly, the local extinction probabilities are allowed to vary between patches. This permits an investigation of the effect of habitat degradation on the persistence of the population. The limiting behaviour of the model is examined as the number of habitat patches increases to ∞. This is done in the case where the number of patches and the initial number of occupied patches increase at the same rate, and for the case where the initial number of occupied patches remains fixed.

Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions are modified by urbanization and weather

1. Ecologists have long been interested in the role of climate in shaping species' ranges, and in recent years, this relationship has taken on greater significance because of the need for accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on wildlife populations. Bioclimatic relationships, however, are potentially complicated by various environmental factors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that climatic constraints on bird distributions are modified by species-specific responses to weather, urbanization and use of supplemental food. 2. Our analyses focused on 18 bird species with data from over 3000 sites across the north-eastern United States and adjacent Canadian provinces. We use hierarchal occupancy modelling to quantify the effects of short-term weather variation and surrounding urbanization on food stress and probabilities of detection, and how these fine-scale changes modify the role that climate has on the distributions of wintering bird populations at regional scales. 3. Examining site occupancy and supplemental food use across the study region, we found that average minimum temperature was an important factor limiting bird distributions, supporting the hypothesis that the occupancy of wintering birds is limited by climatic constraints. We found that 15 of 18 species (83%) were more energetically stressed (had a higher likelihood of visiting a feeder station) as minimum temperature declined from the seasonal average. Because we found these patterns in populations that regularly visit supplemental food sites and were likely not food-limited, we suggest that resource availability is less important than climate in constraining wintering bird distributions. Across a winter season, local within-winter extinction probabilities were lower and colonization probabilities higher at warmer sites supporting the role of climate-mediated range shifts. Importantly, however, these relationships were modified by the degree of urbanization and species' abilities to persist in human-modified landscapes. 4. Our results suggest that urbanization and behavioural adaptation can modify the role of climate on bird ranges and should be included in future analyses of range shifts because of climate change.

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

Local Extinction of Dragonfly and Damselfly Populations in Low‐ and High‐Quality Habitat Patches

Understanding the risk of extinction of a single population is an important problem in both theoretical and applied ecology. Local extinction risk depends on several factors, including population size, demographic or environmental stochasticity, natural catastrophe, or the loss of genetic diversity. The probability of local extinction may also be higher in low-quality sink habitats than in high-quality source habitats. We tested this hypothesis by comparing local extinction rates of 15 species of Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) between 1930-1975 and 1995-2003 in central Finland. Local extinction rates were higher in low-quality than in high-quality habitats. Nevertheless, for the three most common species there were no differences in extinction rates between low- and high-quality habitats. Our results suggest that a good understanding of habitat quality is crucial for the conservation of species in heterogeneous landscapes.

Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species.