Probability Of Conflict Research Articles

Borderline Disorder: (De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa

We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary non-civil conflict in Africa. Exploiting variations across artificial regions (i.e., grids of 50x50km) within an ethnicity's historical homeland, we document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are concentrated close to historical ethnic borders. Following a theory-based instrumental variable approach, which generates a plausibly exogenous ethno-spatial partition of Africa, we find that grid cells with historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity and weak property rights.

Authoritarian Populism and Burden-Sharing in the Transatlantic Community

While the causes and consequences of populism have drawn much attention from researchers, transatlantic burden-sharing captivates not only scholars, but populist politicians themselves. A populist President in the United States has called for significant changes in the way the U.S. leads, focusing on burden-sharing as a bone of contention with allies; Turkey is at odds with its Western partners; the UK is on the brink of leaving the EU; and illiberal parties who question the utility of the institutional architecture that has ordered European politics for 70 years have made significant electoral gains. More than just a defense economics question, burden-sharing is at the core of hierarchy and order in the transatlantic community. Yet no research to date has empirically analyzed the relationship between populism in national politics and burden-sharing. I find that the higher the share of seats in a state’s parliament held by populist parties, the less that state spends on agreed priorities for collective defense. In short, populist politics is associated with adverse burden-sharing outcomes in the transatlantic community. This finding suggests that the strategic effects of populism extend beyond probabilities of conflict and cooperation and into alliance burden-sharing politics and grand strategy.

Should they stay or should they go? Climate migrants and local conflicts

Abstract There is extensive evidence that higher temperatures increase the probability of local conflict. There is also evidence that emigration represents an important margin of adaptation to a warming climate. In this article, we analyse whether migration influences the link between warming and conflicts by either attenuating this connection in countries of origin and/or by exacerbating it in countries of destination. We find that in countries where the propensity to emigrate—as measured by past diaspora—is higher, increases in temperature have smaller effects on the probability of armed conflict, compared to countries with lower migration propensity. This is consistent with emigration functioning as ‘escape valve’ for local tensions. We find no evidence that climate-induced migration increased the probability of conflict in receiving countries.

A novel three-phase target channel allocation scheme for multi-user Cognitive Radio Networks

Generation and allocation of Target Channel Sequence (TCS) in relation to spectrum handoff introduces several challenges in a multi-user Cognitive Radio Network. The primary challenge is to ensure fair and unique TCS allocation to multiple Secondary Users (SUs) in order to prevent channel access conflict during concurrent handoff operations. Another challenge is to perform dynamic TCS generation to guard against channel obsolescence effects under time-varying user activities. Inclusion of real-time SUs further mandates the use of time-bound TCS generation in order to prevent call drops due to time-outs during handoff. To address these issues of fairness, uniqueness, dynamic and time-bounded TCS generation, this paper proposes a novel machine-learning enabled three-phase TCS generation and allocation scheme for multiple real-time SUs involved in Voice over IP (VoIP) communication. While proactive and periodic phases compute unique TCS in O (n log n) time, the reactive phase performs on-demand TCS generation. Generation of TCS is formulated as a fractional knapsack problem and greedy technique is applied therein to optimally select channels based on their existing conditions. A novel HMM-BiLSTM (Hidden Markov Model-Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory) framework is further devised to safeguard VoIP interests through periodic channel eligibility prediction. Additionally, an analytical framework is developed which records negligible probability of channel access conflict among multiple SUs. Simulation results confirm fair and dynamic channel allocation with reduced handoff delays and call-drops and intelligent learning based decision-making operations with high accuracy in comparison to existing approaches. Finally, test-bed implementation validates practical applicability of the proposed methodology.

The energy-efficient MDA-SMAC protocol for wireless sensor networks

Nodes in original S-MAC protocol just can visit the channel in the scheduling and listening stage. The working schema may result in data latency and high conflict. To solve those above problems, we split scheduling duty into multiple micro-duties. By using different micro-dispersed contention channel, the sensor nodes reduce the collision probability of the data. Aiming at detecting the fixed duty cycle in S-MAC protocol, on the basis of the micro-duty and buffer queue length, this paper presents an adaptive duty cycle and back-off algorithm. While using different back-off algorithm with different duty cycles, sensor node Fast-Binary Exponential Backoff and Conflict-Avoid-Binary exponential Backoff algorithm separated are applied to reduce data latency further reduce the conflict probability. Combining both of the improvements, we propose a modified S-MAC protocol. Comparing the performance of S-MAC protocol and Division-Multiple Access-Media Access Control (MDA-SMAC) protocol on the NS-2 simulation platform, the results show that MDA-SMAC protocol performs better in terms of energy consumption, latency, and effective throughput than S-MAC protocol

Probabilistic Strategic Conflict-Management for 4D Trajectories in Free-Route Airspace.

The expected growth of air traffic in the following decades demands the implementation of new operational concepts to avoid current limitations of the air traffic management system. This paper focuses on the strategic conflict management for four-dimensional trajectories (4DT) in free-route airspace. 4DT has been proposed as the future operational concept to manage air traffic. Thus, aircraft must fulfil temporary restrictions at specific waypoints in the airspace based on time windows. Based on the temporary restrictions, a strategic conflict management method is proposed to calculate the conflict probability of an aircraft pair (that intersects in the air) and to calculate temporary-blocking windows that quantify the time span at which an aircraft cannot depart because one conflict could occur. This methodology was applied in a case-study for an aircraft pair, including the uncertainty associated with 4DT. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed to characterise the impact of wind conditions and speed control on the temporary-blocking windows. The results concluded that it is feasible to propose 4DT strategic de-confliction based on temporary-blocking windows. Although, uncertainty variables such as wind and speed control impact on the conflict probability and the size of the temporary-blocking windows.

Habemus Papam? Polarization and Conflict in the Papal States

We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between 1295 and 1846. We assemble a new database using information on cardinals that participated in conclaves during this period, and construct measures of polarization and fractionalization based on the cardinals' places of birth. The deaths of popes and cardinals provide plausible exogenous variation in the timing of the conclave and the composition of the College of Cardinals, which we exploit to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict by between 2 and 3 percent in a given year and by up to 15 percent in a given papacy. The effect is largest in the initial years after the conclave, to gradually vanish over time. Cardinals' influence on the politics of the Papal States decreased after reforms introduced between 1586 and 1588. Our measure of religious productivity, however, is negatively and significantly linked to polarization in the post-reform period. These reforms were successful in shifting the effect of divisions among the elite of one of the largest and oldest organizations from violent conflict to religious matters.

Predikcija sudara aviona na osnovu binomne raspodele

Introduction/purpose: Based on the binomial distribution of the probability density function, a new probabilistic model for aircraft position predicting is presented in this paper. Methods: The proposed algorithm is composed of three different blocks: Data Association, Tracking/Hybrid State Estimation and Calculation of Probability of Conflict. The information about aircraft current positions and flight plans is used to derive an algorithm for detecting possible conflicts between aircraft. The situations where aircraft may come closer than a certain distance to one another are predicted with high probability. The position estimate and indeterminacy refer to target association when two tracks fall in a validation region by using the Probabilistic Data Association Filter. Results: An efficient collision detection algorithm is designed and tested for a lot of multiple target tracking. Conclusion: The simulation results of aircraft conflict prevention in two trajectory scenarios verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Money Talks: Finance, War, and Great Power Politics in the Nineteenth Century

AbstractFinance is often considered a constraining or compelling force in war. This article examines an alternative role of finance in war, asserting that investors can inform states about adversarial intentions and resolve under certain conditions. This signaling mechanism can reduce information asymmetry between states and decrease the probability of conflict. In the context of these theoretical expectations, I examine the case of Austria and the Rothschild Bank in the nineteenth century. I find that instead of being a constraining force on Austrian foreign policy, the Rothschilds helped inform Austria and other European powers during interstate crises. The information provided by the Rothschilds helped Europe avert war in several cases during the nineteenth century.

Conflict management system in health care

This article provides ways to improve the conflict management system in health care based on analyzing the causes of conflicts in a private medical institution. The authors considered the healthcare delivery process in the triad «health worker – patient – society». The study involved analyzing conflict causes in the health care system in the relationship between «health worker – patient» and «health worker – health worker». To determine the conflict causes in private medical institutions and ways to minimize them, the authors used questionnaire data collection, interviewing technique, data analysis, and graphic approach. The study object is medical staff and patients of SILMED Diagnostic Medical Center in Ukraine. The findings identified the main problems in the organization of the conflict management system. Therefore, the essence of conflict situations arising in a medical institution was determined. The obtained results allowed formulating proposals to improve the conflict management system of the private medical institution. Thus, the authors emphasized that the conflict management system in private medicine should minimize the probability of conflict, focus on the treatment quality and the service price. Besides, it should include the development of moral codes for doctors in private medical institutions. The authors noted that to reduce conflict in the relationship «medical worker – medical worker», conflict prevention is more effective than constructive resolution. Thus, conflict prevention requires less effort, resources, and time for a successful clinic operation. To decrease conflicts in the relationship «health worker – patient», it is essential to make a pact between the patient and private medical institution. It establishes the patient’s relationship with the clinic and is publicly available for customers. In the study, the authors concluded that during the consultation, the healthcare professional should persuade the patient to follow all recommendations for maintaining or improving the patient’s health, requiring, if necessary, evidence from the clinic’s patients to follow the treatment protocol.

Securing the European Project: From Self-Referentiality to Heterarchy

AbstractSecurity is the meta-constitutional rationale of the European liberal project and is expressed by two tendentially self-justificatory discourses of power, which are two sides of the same coin: security and rights. The political, inherently conflictual nature of EU constitutional claims has been variously disguised through such discourses. Yet, as the process of constitutionalisation reaches a more advanced stage, in which the probability of high-intensity legal-political conflict as regards key issues of EU integration is growing, the moment has come to address conflict directly, rather than conceal it behind a veil of neutrality. Being ready for actual confrontation means dismissing the straitjacket imposed by the European liberal project. A move from self-referential to heterarchical security is thus advocated. As a result, the constellation of nation states should not be sidelined too easily and the needs and claims of the local level should be considered more carefully. In other words, the principles of primacy, autonomy, uniformity, and effectiveness of EU law ought to be conceived in relative, rather than in absolute terms. One possible way of addressing conflict is to simultaneously permit the CJEU (as well as other EU institutions) to engage more proactively with national courtsandidentify a common epistemic core, which ought to be upheld whenever the liberal-democratic premises of the European project are threatened.

Efficient Estimation of Probability of Conflict Between Air Traffic Using Subset Simulation

This paper presents an efficient method for estimating the probability of conflict between air traffic within a block of airspace. Autonomous sense-and-avoid is an essential safety feature to enable unmanned air systems to operate alongside other (manned or unmanned) air traffic. The ability to estimate the probability of conflict between traffic is an essential part of sense-and-avoid. Such probabilities are typically very low. Evaluating low probabilities using naive direct Monte Carlo generates a significant computational load. This paper applies a technique called subset simulation. The small failure probabilities are computed as a product of larger conditional failure probabilities, reducing the computational load while improving the accuracy of the probability estimates. The reduction in the number of samples required can be one or more orders of magnitude. The utility of the approach is demonstrated by modeling a series of conflicting and potentially conflicting scenarios based on the standard Rules of the Air.

Stakeholders and Criteria on a Mining Project using AHP and Entropy-Weight Methods

The abidance and evolution of mining industry for the Peruvian government is of great relevance nowadays, due to the economic impact, this entails in order to increase the gross domestic product and reduce the poverty index. Nevertheless, in the last few years this production sector suffered numerous problems because of the complicated social relationships with the rural communities near the mining projects. The purpose of this study is to analyze the probability of a social conflict due to the appearance of a mining project in Macusani (Puno-Peru), using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) methodology to evaluate the stakeholders and the entropy-weight method for the criteria. In order to accomplish the evaluation, we interview seven experts in community relationships that gave us their perspectives through the polls. In terms of results, we determine that the stakeholders in order of importance were communal authorities, alpaca livestock, local and regional government, farmers and merchants. By the other hand, the strongest variables in a social conflict were pollution, poverty level, employment, health, economy, water access and security. The analysis of this case of study can improve new innovative techniques to affront the potential appearance of a social conflict, in order to create a social responsibility awareness. This can generate a positive impact expressed in benefits for the local communities, the government and the enterprise.

The Effect of Civil Society Organizations and Democratization Aid on Civil War Onset

A growing literature identifies both situations where aid promotes peace and those where aid encourages violence. Specifically, research shows lower probability of conflict onset in democratizing states receiving high levels of democracy assistance. However, theorizing has overlooked important actors who have agency in spending such aid: civil society organizations (CSOs). We posit that the status of civil society within recipient states conditions the effect of democracy aid inflows on conflict probability. Using an instrumental variables approach to account for endogeneity between aid allocation and conflict propensity, we find that democracy aid is destabilizing when directed to environments where CSOs are weak and poorly connected to the regime and thus are less willing and able to seek change through peaceful means. When civil society is stronger and more institutionalized, however, larger democracy aid flows pose less threat.

Using a surrogate safety approach to prioritize hazardous segments in a rural highway in a developing country

Road safety is a global concern particularly in developing countries where some road sections are disproportionately more vulnerable in terms of the frequency and severity of crashes. Other than using historical crash data based reactive approaches, those sections need to be identified proactively, so that mitigation measures can be applied. Moreover, those approaches are sometimes questioned mainly due to data reliability issues in developing countries. The study reported here is aimed at highlighting the applicability of traffic conflict techniques as surrogate safety measures to identify those sections of a rural highway in a developing country, which are most likely at risk. An adapted framework is demonstrated to identify traffic conflicts using combined surrogate indicators acknowledging the limited resources and facilities in developing countries. A new model is put forwarded using a count data modelling approach. Both fixed and random parameters model derivatives have been explored as an alternative methodological approach to relate the factors affecting the number and probability of conflicts. The partial effects of individual independent variables were estimated to gain a better insight of their impact. The results show that the model can predict high risk segments in terms of probability of conflicts as well as safety risk, as well as prioritize road sections according to the likelihood of their safety level. The model provides a less expensive alternative to the collection of historical crash data in order to identify hazardous road locations or black spots on two-lane highways in developing countries.11A part of the paper was presented in the Transport Research Board (TRB) 97th Annual Meeting and an abridged version from that part was published in TRB online forum1. Mahmud, S., et al., Prioritizing Hazardous Road Sections Using Surrogate Safety Measures: A Count Data Modelling Application in a Heterogeneous Traffic Environment, in Transport Research Board (TRB) 97th Annual Meeting 2018, Transport Research Board (TRB) Washington DC. p. 18–02193. Link: http://amonline.trb.org/2017trb-1.3983622/t025-1.3995192/382-1.3995580/18-02193-1.3993134/18-02193-1.3995603?qr=1.

Absent agency problems, can conflict emerge between a pre-existing angel investor, and an entering venture capitalist?

Suppose absence of agency problems in interactions between a representative angel investor who already is invested in a project (a 'pre-existing' angel investor), and a representative `entering' venture capitalist who provides a new infusion of capital into the same project. This study finds that there exist conditions in context of which conflict emerges, and this with possibility of nigh certainty, between the angel investor, and the venture capitalist (VC). Let the 'conditional relative skewness' for a project be evident in the specific location of the project in the distribution of conditional skewness accruing to all projects that are located in the investment opportunity set of the pre-existing angel investor. Conditional on transformation of a project to a higher risk project by an entering VC, the probability of emergence of legitimate conflict is a decreasing function of conditional relative skewness. Refer to this probability as the 'risk-induced probability of conflict'. The risk-induced probability of conflict increases with the extent to which the entering VC is characterized by either of preference for lotteries, or 'information myopia', and asymptotically approaches one. The general equilibrium model shows maintenance of the risk profile that was established prior to participation of the VC ensures non-emergence of conflict between the entering VC, and the pre-existing angel investor.

DYNAMICS OF COMMERCIAL FISHERY AT THE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE NEGRO RIVER: EXPLOITATION INTENSITY BY FISHING GROUNDS

In the middle Negro River, there have been several conflicts between the different fishing modalities due to the differential use of the fishing resource and the dispute over the same fishing areas. In this way, the spatial dynamics of commercial fishing in the municipality of Barcelos in the middle Negro River were analyzed, aiming to identify the locations used in the fisheries that may have different potentials and demand different actions. Information was collected from commercial fisher regarding the location of fishing sites and the frequency of use during high and low water periods. The geographic coordinates were identified with Q-Gis software and later submitted to a kernel-intensity technique. Eight fishing sites were used in commercial fisheries in Barcelos. In both hydrological periods, fishing occurred with a greater intensity in the Demeni River. Its waters change from light to white throughout the year, and there are several marginal areas that could serve as nurseries for various species of fish. Possibly, in this environment, there is a greater probability of conflicts occurring between the different resource users since this river is also exploited by recreational and subsistence fishers. This result shows that the spatial dynamics of fisheries can be truly important for management proposals.

THE PHENOMENON OF SOCIAL INTERACTION FACILITATION: EFFECT, MECHANISMS, REGULARITIES

In the epoch of exponential development of civilization, social interaction becomes more and more dense and the range of representations and regulations of life is expending, and, accordingly, the probability of conflict in society increases. The research of a problem of social interaction is insufficiently provided and remains urgent in the scientific world. The author (together with R.G. Khalitov and I.M. Yusupov) developed the concept of psychosocial dissonance (notion and model) which was the base for a research of social interaction, and the probabilistic model of psychosocial dissonance became a basis for mathematical (formulas and numbers) determination and modeling of social interaction. Post-nonclassical science, within which the author conducts the researches, studies complex self-developing systems, natural complexes that include the human being, with the expansion of the scope of concepts of scientific methodology and scientific approach to the human being. To understand the facilitation of social interaction in the presence of an observer, the "anthropological principle" is used, which establishes a link between the existence of a person (as an observer) and the physical parameters of the world. On the basis of theoretical researches the concept is introduced and the effect of facilitation of social interaction is shown. The description of the mechanism of facilitation of social interaction on the basis of the model of psychosocial dissonance and level model of psychosocial phenomena is offered. Empirical researches are carried out and regularities of social interaction facilitation are shown and the method of definition of (numerical) influence of the facilitator on social interaction is offered. The model of social interaction facilitation can become the basis for further psychological research and provides an opportunity to apply the results for use in psychological practices, as well as in the training of competent professional facilitators.

Recognition Algorithm and Risk Assessment of Airport Hotspots

The hotspot recognition algorithm is proposed based on a potential collision in order to study the aircraft taxi conflicts in large airports. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hotspots are analyzed based on the risk assessment model of hotspot constructed in this paper. Firstly, approaches for monitoring of the aerodrome movement were compared. The hotspot recognition algorithm taken into account of whether aircrafts’ taxi track has spatial and temporal overlap based on the aerodrome surveillance radar (ASR) data was presented, by identifying the hotspots through analyzing whether the aircrafts’ time of entering and exiting the same taxiway is overlap or not, and the heading difference and distance of the two aircrafts satisfy the specified threshold constraint condition. Then, the ASR data were divided into several parts, and then airport hotspots were recognized and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed. The risk assessment model of airport safety hotspots was constructed which is taken into account of the conflict probability and its severity consequence. Finally, based on the risk grade assessment criteria and hotspots’ risk value, the risk grade ranking of hotspot in one airport of China was evaluated and designated. According to the result, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots were varied with the variation of airport traffic flow and operational mode of runway, which shows that the hotspots have the characteristics of dynamic periodicity and diurnal variation. And the risk assessment results were consistent with experts’ opinions and actual operation condition, which verified the rationality of the hotspot recognition algorithm, risk assessment model as well as the risk grade ranking criteria.

Can land title reduce low-intensity interhousehold conflict incidences and associated damages in eastern DRC?

Abstract The broad aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of land reform policy as a sustainable tool for averting low-intensity local conflict and protecting vulnerable households in conflict and post-conflict societies from adverse consequences of conflict. Empirical studies on micro-level conflict have been limited on two fronts - the difficulty of collecting survey data from conflict prone societies, and a general lack of attention to the consequences of low-intensity local conflict. This paper attempts to address both these limitations. Using a survey on violent and non-violent conflict experiences of 1582 farming households from the postwar society of North Kivu, in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), I explore whether land title can i) lower the probability of low-intensity conflict between households; and ii) lower the damages for households in the event of a conflict. To address concerns of potential selection bias, I employ the quasi-experimental estimation technique of propensity score matching (PSM). A rigorous set of tests and sensitivity analyses ensures both the quality of matching and reliability of estimates. These findings show that land title reduces a household’s probability of experiencing low-intensity interhousehold conflict roughly between 10 and 18 percentage points. However, I find no evidence that households with land title are subject to lower damages in the event of a conflict. These findings suggest that in vulnerable societies with high exposure to conflict, land reform programs that just grant title to households may reduce conflict to some extent but will not necessarily reduce the adverse consequences associated with conflict. Thus, land title is not a panacea for all conflict related adversities and cannot serve as a stand-alone tool for reducing adversities associated with conflict. Further research is required on whether supplementing land reform programs with policies such as promoting good governance and strengthening local institutions can sustainably promote peaceful societies.