Probabilistic Reliability Analysis Research Articles

A Framework of Reliability Assessment With Consideration Effect of Transient and Voltage Stabilities

With increased energy demand, less new transmission, and open access, the power system is experiencing a much greater level of power transfer. These new requirements push the system to its limits for maximum economic benefit, while maintaining sufficient security margins that require online network analysis. A practical interconnected system can collapse due to a number of different limits being exceeded such as thermal, transient stability, and voltage stability. This paper provides a novel framework for extending conventional probabilistic reliability analysis to account for system stability limits. The proposed method includes transient and voltage stability issues in the adequacy assessment of a composite system. The main component of the method is an intelligent system, which is used to modify reliability indexes due to stability considerations. The intelligent system is a combination of neural network and fuzzy neural network. The method is examined on a practical case study.

Sensitivity analysis and fuzzy modelling for passive systems reliability assessment

Passive systems represent an important aspect of long-term future solutions for nuclear power plant technology. An issue still to be resolved is the assessment of their reliability. This entails the identification of the physical parameters which are most relevant to the system response and the development of fast-running models to be embedded in the repetitive calculations required by extensive probabilistic reliability analyses. In this work, a case study concerning a realistic design of an Isolation Condenser is considered. The most relevant parameters are identified by means of different sensitivity analysis techniques. Then, fuzzy models are devised which efficiently perform the required mapping between the system outputs and the identified relevant inputs. The approach is shown to lead to satisfactory results, the models obtained being fast and sufficiently accurate and providing “don't know” responses when the models are called to extrapolate beyond reasonable limits.

Reliability of Future European Launchers with Abort Capability

Since 1994, the aim of the Future European Space Transportation Investigation Program has been identifying technically feasible and e nancially affordable reusable or semireusable launcher concepts, with the chief objective of increasing availability and signie cantly decreasing cost. An overview is given on how consideration of abort modes in reusable and semireusable launchers would fairly increase launcher reliability and lifetime and reduce recurringcosts.Resultsareanalyzedofthepreliminaryreliabilityassessmentofeightdifferentconcepts,performed during slice C of the program. This study has proved that probabilistic reliability analyses are also a good decision tool in the early phases of a program where conceptual design will be e xed. It can be used as a comparative argument for concept selection, giving a quantitative idea of the reliability of different conceptual design options, and as a tool to select subsystem design options considered reliable from the beginning.

A framework of voltage stability assessment in power system reliability analysis

This paper provides a novel framework for extending conventional probabilistic reliability analysis to account for system stability limits. The scheme integrates a voltage stability index with existing reliability tools for offline assessment. The index relates the probability of instability to the proximity of voltage collapse. The scheme is successfully tested using the IEEE Reliability test system.

二次系統の供給信頼度解析システムの開発

二次系統の供給信頼度解析システムの開発

Probabilistic safety analysis for systems with standby subsystems with sequentially used standbys

Probabilistic safety analysis of complex engineered systems usually involves consideration of standby systems. In some applications these standby systems contain components that are themselves on standby to other components within the standby system. The objective of this paper is to develop a method for using the fault tree technique to perform this type of a probabilistic reliability analysis of such systems. After presenting the basic concepts of the problem, this paper gives an example to orient readers to the problem. Then, it provides the exact and approximate general solutions with examples. The exact solution is simple enough to be used in the analysis of many systems. The approximate solution is simple and good enough to the analysis of systems that are not amenable to an exact analysis. Based on this method, a PC-based program named STANDBY has been developed.

Probabilistic Reliability Analysis for Biological Wastewater Treatment Plants

Research Article| December 01 1989 Probabilistic Reliability Analysis for Biological Wastewater Treatment Plants C. Assezat C. Assezat Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Water Sci Technol (1989) 21 (12): 1813–1816. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.1989.0176 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Cite Icon Cite Permissions Search Site Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsThis Journal Search Advanced Search Citation C. Assezat; Probabilistic Reliability Analysis for Biological Wastewater Treatment Plants. Water Sci Technol 1 December 1989; 21 (12): 1813–1816. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.1989.0176 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex This content is only available as a PDF. © IWA Publishing 1989 Article PDF first page preview Close Modal You do not currently have access to this content.

Probabilistic Reliability Analysis, Quantitative Safety Goals, and Nuclear Licensing in the United Kingdom

Although unpublicized, the use of quantitative safety goals and probabilistic reliability analysis for licensing nuclear reactors has become a reality in the United Kingdom. This conclusion results from an examination of the process leading to the licensing of the Sizewell B PWR in England. The licensing process for this reactor has substantial implications for nuclear safety standards in Britain, and is examined in the context of the growing trend towards quantitative safety goals in the United States.

Probabilistic reliability analyses to detect weak points in secondary-side residual heat removal systems of KWU PWR plants

Requirements made by Federal German licensing authorities called for the analysis of the secondary-side residual heat removal systems of new PWR plants with regard to availability, possible weak points and the balanced nature of the overall system for different incident sequences.Following a description of the generic concept and the process and safety-related systems for steam generator feed and main steam discharge, the reliability of the latter is analyzed for the small break LOCA and emergency power mode incidents, weak points in the process systems are identified, remedial measures of a system-specific and test-strategic nature are presented and their contribution to improving system availability is quantified. A comparison with the results of the German Risk Study on Nuclear Power Plants (GRS) shows a distinct reduction in core meltdown frequency.

Waste Package Reliability / Nalysis

ABSTRACTProof of future performance of a complex system such as a high-level nuclear waste package over a period of hundreds to thousands of years cannot be had in the ordinary sense of the word. The general method of probabilistic reliability analysis could provide an acceptable framework to identify, organize, and convey the information necessary to satisfy the criterion of reasonable assurance of waste package performance according to the regulatory requirements set forth in 10 CFR 60. General principles which may be used to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative reliability of a waste package design are indicated and illustrated with a sample calculation of a repository concept in basalt.

A Reliability Analysis Technique for Bulk System Planning

This paper describes a technique for extending probabilistic generation system reliability analysis to include the bulk power supply system. With two-state component models, a net load model and a linear least square error approximation to the a.c. power-flow, classical minimum path concepts are used to develop the idea of Load Dependent Minimum Paths. This is the minimum amount of information required to determine whether any given combination of generation, transmission and load produces acceptable performance.