Probabilistic Model Research Articles

Theory-based cryopreservation mode of mesenchymal stromal cell spheroids.

Cryopreservation of spheroids requires development of new improved methods. The plasma membranes permeability coefficients for water and cryoprotectants determine time characteristics of mass transfer through the cell membranes, and therefore the optimal modes of cells cryopreservation. Here we proposed an approach to cryopreservation of multicellular spheroids which considers their generalised characteristics as analogues of the membranes' permeability coefficients of the individual cells. We have determined such integral characteristics of spheroids from mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) as osmotically inactive volume; permeability coefficients for water and Me2SO molecules and the activation energy of their penetration. Based on these characteristics, we calculated the osmotic behaviour of multicellular spheroids under cooling conditions to select the optimal cooling rate. We also determined the optimal cooling rate of spheroids using the probabilistic model developed based on the two-factor theory of cryodamage. From the calculation it follows that the optimal cooling rate of the MSC-based spheroids is 0.75 °С/min. To verify the obtained theoretical estimates, we conducted experiments on freezing MSC-based spheroids under different modes. The obtained results of primary viability screening indicate that freezing at a constant linear cooling rate of 0.75 - 1.0 °С/min gives a good result. Theoretical prediction of the spheroid osmotic behaviour during cooling provided the basis for experimental verification of varying the temperature to which slow cooling should be carried out before immersion in liquid nitrogen. Slow freezing of spheroids to -40 °C followed by immersion in liquid nitrogen was shown to preserve cells better than slow freezing to -80 °C. Obtained data allow more effective use of MSC-based spheroids in drug screening and regenerative medicine.

Uncertainty estimation and evaluation of deformation image registration based convolutional neural networks.

Objective&#xD;Fast and accurate deformable image registration (DIR) that include DIR uncertainty estimation are essential for safe and reliable clinical deployment. While recent deep learning models have shown promise in predicting DIR with its uncertainty, challenges persist in proper uncertainty evaluation and hyperparameter optimization for these methods. This work aims to develop and evaluate a model that can perform fast DIR and predict its uncertainty in seconds.&#xD;Approach&#xD;In this study, we introduce a novel probabilistic multi-resolution image registration model utilizing convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to estimate a multivariate normal distributed dense displacement field (DDF) in a multimodal image registration problem. To assess the quality of the DDF distribution predicted by the model, we propose a new metric based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The performance of our approach was evaluated against three other DIR algorithms (VoxelMorph, Monte Carlo Drop-Out, and Monte Carlo B-splines) capable of predicting uncertainty. The evaluation of the models included not only the quality of the deformation but also the reliability of the estimated uncertainty. Our application investigated registration of a treatment planning computed tomography (CT) to follow-up cone beam CT for daily adaptive radiotherapy.&#xD;Main results&#xD;The hyperparameter tuning of the models showed that there is a trade-off between the reliability of the estimated uncertainty and the accuracy of the deformation. In the optimal trade-off our model excelled in contour propagation and uncertainty estimation (p < 0.01) compared to existing uncertainty estimation models. We obtained an average dice similarity coefficient of 0.89 and a KL-divergence of 0.15.&#xD;Significance&#xD;By addressing challenges in DIR uncertainty estimation and evaluation, our work showed that both the DIR and its uncertainty can be reliably predicted paving the way for safe deployment in clinical environment.&#xD.

A probabilistic model for evaluating the operational safety and operational safety analysis by the maximum likelihood method: application on the cameroonian company of petroleum depot of garoua

A probabilistic model for evaluating the operational safety and operational safety analysis by the maximum likelihood method: application on the cameroonian company of petroleum depot of garoua

Probabilistic model for the gravitational wave signal from merging black holes

Parametrized models that predict the gravitational-wave (GW) signal from merging black holes are used to extract source properties from GW observations. The majority of research in this area has focused on developing methods capable of producing highly accurate, point estimate, predictions for the GW signal. A key element missing from every model used in the analysis of GW data is an estimate for how confident the model is in its prediction. This omission increases the risk of biased parameter estimation of source properties. Current strategies include running analyses with multiple models to measure systematic bias however, this fails to accurately reflect the true uncertainty in the models. In this work we develop a probabilistic extension to the phenomenological modeling workflow for nonspinning black holes and demonstrate that the model not only produces accurate point estimates for the GW signal but can be used to provide well-calibrated local estimates for its uncertainty. Our analysis highlights that there is a lack of numerical relativity (NR) simulations available at multiple resolutions which can be used to estimate their numerical error and implore the NR community to continue to improve their estimates for the error in NR solutions published. Waveform models that are not only accurate in their point-estimate predictions but also in their error estimates are a potential way to mitigate bias in GW parameter estimation of compact binaries due to unconfident waveform model extrapolations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Development and validation of a biomechanically fidelic surgical training knee model.

Knee arthroplasty technique is constantly evolving and the opportunity for surgeons to practice new techniques is currently highly dependent on the availability of cadaveric specimens requiring certified facilities. The high cost, limited supply, and heterogeneity of cadaveric specimens has increased the demand for synthetic training models, which are currently limited by a lack of biomechanical fidelity. Here, we aimed to design, manufacture, and experimentally validate a synthetic knee surgical training model which reproduces the flexion dependent varus-valgus (VV) and anterior-posterior (AP) mechanics of cadaveric knees, while maintaining anatomic accuracy. A probabilistic finite element modeling approach was employed to design physical models to exhibit passive cadaveric VV and AP mechanics. Seven synthetic models were manufactured and tested in a six-degree-of-freedom hexapod robot. Overall, the synthetic models exhibited cadaver-like VV and AP mechanics across a wide range of flexion angles with little variation between models. In the extended position, two models showed increased valgus rotation (<0.5°), and three models showed increased posterior tibial translation (<1.7 mm) when compared to the 95% confidence interval (CI) of cadaveric measurements. At full flexion, all models showed VV and AP mechanics within the 95% CI of cadaveric measurements. Given the repeatable mechanics exhibited, the knee models developed in this study can be used to reduce the current reliance on cadaveric specimens in surgical training.

Optimizing power systems and microgrids: A novel multi-objective model for energy hubs with innovative algorithmic optimization

This article delves into the dynamics of power system and microgrid planning, emphasizing the emerging significance of energy hubs. The study introduces a pioneering multi-objective model that integrates economic considerations and microgrid pollution mitigation. The focus is on renewable sources such as wind and solar, coupled with advanced energy storage systems like E-fuel. Sophisticated probabilistic modeling techniques address uncertainties in renewable resources, complemented by a demand-side management program for cost reduction during peak hours. Transforming into an optimization problem, an innovative algorithm inspired by African vulture foraging behaviors provides a distinctive approach to energy landscape optimization. In a comparative analysis with established models, this approach demonstrates proficiency in simulating market behavior and providing optimal strategies for profit maximization. In a simulation analysis of four scenarios, the impact of risk assessment, a novel electronic fuel storage market, and an innovative energy storage solution on operational costs and pollution emissions is scrutinized. Notably, the proposed method excels in Case 4, showcasing a significant reduction in both operational costs and emissions. Case 4 demonstrates a substantial reduction in operational costs to $1745.732 and pollutant releases to 10753.621 kg, outperforming existing models with lower operational costs and pollutant releases.

Probabilistic Task Offloading with Uncertain Processing Times in Device-to-Device Edge Networks

D2D edge computing is a promising solution to address the conflict between limited network capacity and increasing application demands, where mobile devices can offload their tasks to other peer devices/servers for better performance. Task offloading is critical to the performance of D2D edge computing. Most existing works on task offloading assume the task processing time is known or can be accurately estimated. However, the processing time is often uncertain until it is finished. Moreover, the same task can have largely different execution times under different scenarios, which leads to inaccurate offloading decisions and degraded performance. To address this problem, we propose a game-based probabilistic task offloading scheme with an uncertain processing time in D2D edge networks. First, we characterize the uncertainty of the task processing time using a probabilistic model. Second, we incorporate the proposed probabilistic model into an offloading decision game. We also analyze the structural properties of the game and prove that it can reach a Nash equilibrium. We evaluate the proposed work using real-world applications and datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed probabilistic model can accurately characterize the uncertainty of completion time, and the offloading algorithm can effectively improve the overall task completion rate in D2D networks.

Enabling efficient regional seismic fragility assessment of multi‐component bridge portfolios through Gaussian process regression and active learning

AbstractRegional seismic fragility assessment of bridge portfolios must address the embedded uncertainties and variations stemming from both the earthquake hazard and bridge attributes (e.g., geometry, material, design detail). To achieve bridge‐specific fragility assessment, multivariate probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDM) have recently been developed that use both the ground motion intensity measure and bridge parameters as inputs. However, explicitly utilizing bridge parameters as inputs requires numerous nonlinear response history analyses (NRHAs). In this situation, the associated computational cost increases exponentially for high‐fidelity bridge models with complex component connectivity and sophisticated material constitutive laws. Moreover, it remains unclear how many analyses are sufficient for the response data and the resulting demand model to cover the entire solution space without overfitting. To deal with these issues, this study integrates Gaussian process regression (GPR) and active learning (AL) into a multistep workflow to achieve efficient regional seismic fragility assessment of bridge portfolios. The GPR relaxes the probability distribution assumptions made in typical cloud analysis‐based PSDMs to enable heteroskedastic nonparametric seismic demand modeling. The AL leverages the varying standard deviation to select the least but most representative bridge‐model‐ground‐motion sample pairs to conduct NRHA with much‐improved efficiency. Both independent and correlated multi‐output GPRs are proposed to deal with bridge portfolios with seismic demand correlations among multiple components (column, bearing, shear key, abutment, unseating, and joint seal). Considering a single benchmark highway bridge class in California as the case study, the AL‐GPR framework and the associated component‐level fragility results are investigated in terms of their efficiency, accuracy, and robustness. The fragility results show that 70 AL‐selected samples would enable the GPR to derive bridge‐specific fragility models comparable to the ones using the multiple stripes analysis approach with 1950 ground motions considered for each individual bridge. The AL‐GPR model also successfully captures the physics of how bridge span length, deck area, column slenderness, and steel reinforcement ratio would change the damage state exceedance probabilities of different bridge components. The efficiency of AL stems from the fact that, with the multi‐output independent GPR, a stable and reliable fragility model can be achieved using 50 AL‐selected samples compared to at least 270 randomly chosen samples. The proposed methodology advances the state of the art in enabling more efficient and reliable regional seismic fragility assessment of multi‐component bridge portfolios.

Modeling COVID-19 data with a novel neutrosophic Burr-III distribution

In this study, we have presented a novel probabilistic model called the neutrosophic Burr-III distribution, designed for applications in neutrosophic surface analysis. Neutrosophic analysis allows for the incorporation of vague and imprecise information, reflecting the reality that many real-world problems involve ambiguous data. This ability to handle vagueness can lead to more robust and realistic models especially in situation where classical models fall short. We have also explored the neutrosophic Burr-III distribution in order to deal with the ambiguity and vagueness in the data where the classical Burr-III distribution falls short. This distribution offers valuable insights into various reliability properties, moment expressions, order statistics, and entropy measures, making it a versatile tool for analyzing complex data. To assess the practical relevance of our proposed distribution, we applied it to real-world data sets and compared its performance against the classical Burr-III distribution. The findings revealed that the neutrosophic Burr-III distribution outperformed than the classical Burr-III distribution in capturing the underlying data characteristics, highlighting its potential as a superior modeling toolin various fields.

Operation scheduling method in an off-grid considering frequency violation probability caused by short-term variation

The use of renewable energy (RE) resources in off-grid applications is a promising solution from both the economic and environmental perspectives. However, the employment of RE generation should consider the uncertainty in their generation output; in particular, short-term variations in generation output result in serious frequency violations. The development of the off-grid planning, operation, and scheduling considering frequency variation is significant. This study proposes a probabilistic model for the frequency variation caused by load variation, which includes the dynamics of rotating generators and frequency-supporting smart inverters. The proposed method calculates the maximum frequency deviation by transforming the block, considering the output limit of the governor and smart inverters. This calculation is fast because it does not require time-sequential simulation. The effectiveness of the proposed method for off-grid operational scheduling problems was demonstrated through numerical studies. The results show that the proposed method can evaluate the same results as time series simulations 1500 times faster. Additionally, frequency deviations caused by short-term variations can be avoided, and battery capacity for zero frequency deviation is estimated with a 5% error. These results have the potential to contribute significantly to the operation of the grid with a large portion of RE resources.

Multimedia Data Mining and Processing for News Source Attribution

The desire for unbiased journalism that effectively counters disinformation is widely recognised. News consumers are not only interested in news, but they also want unbiased journalism that cuts through disinformation, and they want it from trusted news sources. Consequently, media researchers need to explore ways to facilitate news-source identification, irrespective of the platform used. However, the availability of multimedia data sources has seen a remarkable surge in recent years, encompassing demographic data, social media data, geodata, and pervasive digital trace data. Multimedia data mining is a procedure of discovering stimulating trends via media data using video, text, and audio that are not generally available by simple enquiries and related outputs. Researchers face the challenge of integrating these diverse sources to enhance news source attribution in multimedia data including platforms like Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram. The paper presents a review of multimedia data approaches and their application to news source attribution research. Also, the examination of the benefits and limitations of these techniques and discussion on future directions were mentioned. Consideration was on machine learning and statistical approaches to multimedia data, which include deep learning, and probabilistic modelling. Similarly, a discussion on the importance of data privacy and ethics in news source attribution research was stated. The contribution of this study is highly relevant for news media research groups striving to improve their capability to attribute sources in multimedia data, thereby combatting disinformation and amplifying trusted media brands. Keywords: Data mining, Multimedia, Data process, News source attribution, Unbiased journalism

Enhancing Botnet Detection in Network Security Using Profile Hidden Markov Models

A botnet is a network of compromised computer systems, or bots, remotely controlled by an attacker through bot controllers. This covert network poses a threat through large-scale cyber attacks, including phishing, distributed denial of service (DDoS), data theft, and server crashes. Botnets often camouflage their activity by utilizing common internet protocols, such as HTTP and IRC, making their detection challenging. This paper addresses this threat by proposing a method to identify botnets based on distinctive communication patterns between command and control servers and bots. Recognizable traits in botnet behavior, such as coordinated attacks, heartbeat signals, and periodic command distribution, are analyzed. Probabilistic models, specifically Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Profile Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs), are employed to learn and identify these activity patterns in network traffic data. This work utilizes publicly available datasets containing a combination of botnet, normal, and background traffic to train and test these models. The comparative analysis reveals that both HMMs and PHMMs are effective in detecting botnets, with PHMMs exhibiting superior accuracy in botnet detection compared to HMMs.

Diabetes, life course and childhood socioeconomic conditions: an empirical assessment for Mexico

BackgroundDemographic and epidemiological dynamics characterized by lower fertility rates and longer life expectancy, as well as higher prevalence of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, represent important challenges for policy makers around the World. We investigate the risk factors that influence the diagnosis of diabetes in the Mexican population aged 50 years and over, including childhood poverty.ResultsThis work employs a probabilistic regression model with information from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) of 2012 and 2018. Our results are consistent with the existing literature and should raise strong concerns. The findings suggest that risk factors that favor the diagnosis of diabetes in adulthood are: age, family antecedents of diabetes, obesity, and socioeconomic conditions during both adulthood and childhood.ConclusionsPoverty conditions before the age 10, with inter-temporal poverty implications, are associated with a higher probability of being diagnosed with diabetes when older and pose extraordinary policy challenges.

Innovative decision-making for solar photovoltaic system installation in residential energy hubs: A probabilistic dynamic planning approach

This paper introduces an innovative probabilistic dynamic planning model tailored to optimize photovoltaic (PV) system installation within Residential Energy Hubs (REHs). The REH amalgamates diverse components, including PV systems, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) units, and gas boilers, to holistically fulfill residential thermal and electrical energy demands. The model's primary objective is to achieve an optimal equilibrium between minimizing initial investment costs associated with PV systems and managing ongoing energy expenses within the REH framework, encompassing potential PV energy losses over the planning horizon. To augment the flexibility and benefits of PV systems for residential consumers, the model integrates several pioneering features. Particularly notable is the introduction of a heating energy storage system, which complements the REH's thermal requirements and adeptly reacts to fluctuations in gas and electricity prices, thereby maximizing PV system benefits and ensuring homeowners' cost efficiency. Moreover, the model addresses the inherent uncertainty tied to PV generation by employing a two-point estimation method, offering a more realistic depiction of system performance and potential outcomes. To resolve the two-objective problem, an initial conversion into a single-objective problem via a weighted summation method precedes the application of an optimization algorithm inspired by symbiotic organisms. The paper demonstrates the practical application and efficacy of the proposed model through extensive simulations spanning a 10-year planning horizon. The results underscore the model's effectiveness and versatility in guiding residential consumers to make informed and economically viable decisions regarding PV system installation within the broader spectrum of their energy requirements. This research represents a significant stride towards empowering homeowners with invaluable tools for embracing sustainable energy solutions.

On the sensitivity of centrality metrics

Despite the huge importance that the centrality metrics have in understanding the topology of a network, too little is known about the effects that small alterations in the topology of the input graph induce in the norm of the vector that stores the node centralities. If so, then it could be possible to avoid re-calculating the vector of centrality metrics if some minimal changes occur in the network topology, which would allow for significant computational savings. Hence, after formalising the notion of centrality, three of the most basic metrics were herein considered (i.e., Degree, Eigenvector, and Katz centrality). To perform the simulations, two probabilistic failure models were used to describe alterations in network topology: Uniform (i.e., all nodes can be independently deleted from the network with a fixed probability) and Best Connected (i.e., the probability a node is removed depends on its degree). Our analysis suggests that, in the case of degree, small variations in the topology of the input graph determine small variations in Degree centrality, independently of the topological features of the input graph; conversely, both Eigenvector and Katz centralities can be extremely sensitive to changes in the topology of the input graph. In other words, if the input graph has some specific features, even small changes in the topology of the input graph can have catastrophic effects on the Eigenvector or Katz centrality.

Research on Multi-Stage Post-Occupancy Evaluation Framework of Community Comprehensive Elderly Care Service Facilities under the Public-Private Partnership Mode—A Case Study of China

The key to whether elderly individuals in the community can enjoy their later years peacefully lies in the service capabilities of community comprehensive elderly care service facilities (CCECSF) under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) mode. To maintain a high level of service capability in community comprehensive elderly care service facilities under PPP mode, scientific evaluation of the effectiveness of these facilities is equally crucial. This article first constructs a post-occupancy evaluation index system of community comprehensive elderly care service facilities under PPP mode that includes three evaluation attributes and fifteen evaluation criteria based on the Chinese culture and lifestyle habits. Regarding the issue of direct users being unable to directly participate in evaluations, the uncertainty in evaluation information, and the volatility of evaluation results, a multi-stage post-occupancy evaluation model is constructed based on probabilistic linguistic term set, TOPSIS model and multi-stage decision theory. The above post-occupancy evaluation index system and evaluation model together constitute a multi-stage post-occupancy evaluation framework for community comprehensive elderly care service facilities under PPP mode. The outcomes of the case study indicate that the post-occupancy evaluation index system can offer a scientifically guided approach for evaluating the service level of community comprehensive elderly care service facilities under the PPP mode; meanwhile, the multi-stage evaluation model can enable direct user participation in the post-evaluation of facility usage and improve the robustness and reduce the fluctuation of the evaluation results, so as to improve the scientificity of the evaluation results.

Robustness of embedded fibre optic sensor mesh configurations for monitoring composite structures

Fibre optic sensors are attractive for monitoring of composite structures but the significant risk of damage to fibres where they enter the structure and within the structure itself can make their use unreliable. Mesh configurations of embedded fibre Bragg grating sensors with improved robustness are considered for monitoring composite structures. The configurations of single ended line, bidirectional line, loop, and a novel 2×2 mesh are analysed using a probabilistic model of the sensor system robustness. Numerical evaluation of these configurations has shown that the 2×2 mesh configuration provides the greatest robustness of all of the configurations across all inlet port failure probabilities. The probability of a sensor becoming isolated in a 2×2 mesh is approximately 3 times lower than for the bidirectional line configuration. Using a new matrix approach, the 2×2 mesh configuration is analysed in terms of disaggregation of individual sensor spectra for both fault free and faulty conditions. Simulation and experimental evaluation have demonstrated that successful recovery of individual grating spectra is possible with small spurious signals.

Multi-scale tissue fluorescence mapping with fiber optic ultraviolet excitation and generative modeling

Cellular imaging of thick samples requires physical sectioning or laser scanning microscopy, which can be restrictive, involved, and generally incompatible with high-throughput requirements. We developed fiber optic microscopy with ultraviolet (UV) surface excitation (FUSE), a portable and quantitative fluorescence imaging platform for thick tissue that enabled quick sub-cellular imaging without thin sections. We substantially advanced prior UV excitation approaches with illumination engineering and computational methods. Optical fibers delivered &lt;300nm light with directional control, enabling unprecedented 50× widefield imaging on thick tissue with sub-nuclear clarity, and 3D topography of surface microstructure. Probabilistic modeling of high-magnification images using our normalizing flow architecture FUSE-Flow (made freely available as open-source software) enhanced low-magnification imaging with measurable localized uncertainty via variational inference. Comprehensive validation comprised multi-scale fluorescence histology compared with standard H&amp;E histology, and quantitative analyses of senescence, antibiotic toxicity, and nuclear DNA content in tissue models via efficient sampling of thick slices from entire murine organs up to 0.4×8×12mm and 1.3 million cells per surface. This technology addresses long-standing laboratory gaps in high-throughput studies for rapid cellular insights.

Anomalous diffusion of synaptic vesicles and its influences on spontaneous and evoked neurotransmission.

Neurons in the central nervous system communicate with each other by activating billions of tiny synaptic boutons distributed along their fine axons. These presynaptic varicosities are very crowded environments, comprising hundreds of synaptic vesicles. Only a fraction of these vesicles can be recruited in a single release episode, either spontaneous or evoked by action potentials. Since the seminal work by Fatt and Katz, spontaneous release has been modelled as a memoryless process. Nevertheless, at central synapses, experimental evidence indicates more complex features, including non-exponential distributions of release intervals and power-law behaviour in their rate. To describe these features, we developed a probabilistic model of spontaneous release based on Brownian motion of synaptic vesicles in the presynaptic environment. To account for different diffusion regimes, we based our simulations on fractional Brownian motion. We show that this model can predict both deviation from the Poisson hypothesis and power-law features in experimental quantal release series, thus suggesting that the vesicular motion by diffusion could per se explain the emergence of these properties. We demonstrate the efficacy of our modelling approach using electrophysiological recordings at single synaptic boutons and ultrastructural data. When this approach was used to simulate evoked responses, we found that the replenishment of the readily releasable pool driven by Brownian motion of vesicles can reproduce the characteristic binomial release distributions seen experimentally. We believe that our modelling approach supports the idea that vesicle diffusion and readily releasable pool dynamics are crucial factors for the physiological functioning of neuronal communication. KEY POINTS: We developed a new probabilistic model of spontaneous and evoked vesicle fusion based on simple biophysical assumptions, including the motion of vesicles before they dock to the release site. We provide closed-form equations for the interval distribution of spontaneous releases in the special case of Brownian diffusion of vesicles, showing that a power-law heavy tail is generated. Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) was exploited to simulate anomalous vesicle diffusion, including directed and non-directed motion, by varying the Hurst exponent. We show that our model predicts non-linear features observed in experimental spontaneous quantal release series as well as ultrastructural data of synaptic vesicles spatial distribution. Evoked exocytosis based on a diffusion-replenished readily releasable pool might explain the emergence of power-law behaviour in neuronal activity.

Geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling – a framework

Abstract. Lateral migration of meandering rivers poses erosional risks to human settlements, roads, and infrastructure in alluvial floodplains. While there is a large body of scientific literature on the dominant mechanisms driving river migration, it is still not possible to accurately predict river meander evolution over multiple years. This is in part because we do not fully understand the relative contribution of each mechanism and because deterministic mathematical models are not equipped to account for stochasticity in the system. Besides, uncertainty due to model structure deficits and unknown parameter values remains. For a more reliable assessment of risks, we therefore need probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a workflow to generate geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling. We start with a simple geometric model for river migration, where nominal migration rates increase with local and upstream curvature. We then account for model structure deficits using smooth random functions. Probabilistic forecasts for river channel position over time are generated by Monte Carlo runs using a distribution of model parameter values inferred from satellite data. We provide a recipe for parameter inference within the Bayesian framework. We demonstrate that such risk maps are relatively more informative in avoiding false negatives, which can be both detrimental and costly, in the context of assessing erosional hazards due to river migration. Our results show that with longer prediction time horizons, the spatial uncertainty of erosional hazard within the entire channel belt increases – with more geographical area falling within 25 % &lt; probability &lt; 75 %. However, forecasts also become more confident about erosion for regions immediately in the vicinity of the river, especially on its cut-bank side. Probabilistic modeling thus allows us to quantify our degree of confidence – which is spatially and temporally variable – in river migration forecasts. We also note that to increase the reliability of these risk maps, we need to describe the first-order dynamics in our model to a reasonable degree of accuracy, and simple geometric models do not always possess such accuracy.