Modelling construction performance variability for probabilistic time estimation of tunnelling projects

Abstract

ABSTRACT Budget overrun and schedule delay of infrastructure projects result in the mismanagement of huge amounts of resources. Studies show that accounting for uncertainties in time and cost estimation of such projects can help the decision-makers in better understanding the involved risks. Several probabilistic models have been developed during the last two decades to facilitate such estimations. A common aspect of all these models is the subjective assessment of unit activities' duration, which affects the accuracy of the estimated time and cost significantly. Despite this, the mechanism governing the variability of unit activities' duration has seldom been studied. Thus this paper focuses on addressing this gap by using a unique set of data from a tunnel project. The variability in unit activities' duration (construction performance variability) is governed by three main components: typical performance variability, minor machinery delays and minor performance delays. Using these components, a novel method for modelling construction performance variability in probabilistic time estimation of tunnelling projects is proposed. The application of the proposed method is demonstrated through a case example with a discussion on its important aspects, advantages and limitations. The findings of this paper offer a resource to improve the accuracy of time estimation for tunnelling projects.