Probability Criterion Research Articles

Regional prediction and prevention analysis of rockburst hazard based on the Gaussian process for binary classification

Rockburst is a complex dynamic disaster in coal mining and affected by many factors. To accurately predict the rockburst hazard among complex influencing factors, a prediction model of rockburst hazard based on the Gaussian process for binary classification (GPC) was proposed after the identification of the intrinsic relationship between multiple factors of coal mines and rockburst. Through computerized machine learning and integrated intelligent analysis, the non-linear mapping of rockburst hazard and its influencing factors was established. The multi-factor pattern recognition model was constructed using artificial intelligence. The prediction criteria of the rockburst hazard probability and the hazard probability value of the prediction area unit were determined by applying neural network and fuzzy inference methods. In addition, the rockburst hazardous zone was classified, and the corresponding technical scheme for the prevention was put forward. The validity and feasibility of the regional prediction of rockburst hazard based on GPC were verified in the engineering practice. This method is highly targeted and can improve the accuracy and precision of rockburst prediction, thus contributing to the safe and efficient production of coal mines.

Unlocking the evolution of abdominal specializations in Luciuranus fireflies (Coleoptera, Lampyridae)

AbstractUnderstanding the evolution of genitalic traits and their co‐evolution between sexes is at the core of Evolutionary Biology. Cross‐species reproductive trait co‐variation can be the outcome of hybrid avoidance and/or sexual selection. Although the outcome of these two phenomena will look similar, they yield distinct patterns of species co‐occurrence. Partial or complete syntopy—but not allopatry—among species is expected to lead to hybrid avoidance strategies. Conversely, sexual selection is involved in genitalic evolution regardless of co‐occurrence with closely related species. The genus Luciuranus Silveira, Khattar & Mermudes, 2016 includes eight species of fireflies endemic to the Atlantic forest. Among these, five feature species‐specific morphology of the male and female terminalia suggest a clamping mechanism, while the remaining three species have similar terminalia across species. The evolutionary history of Luciuranus and its putative clamping mechanism remains unknown. Furthermore, the female internal morphology, which could provide insight into the biology of these poorly known fireflies, was never studied. Here, we combine morphology (55 characters) and DNA sequences (COI, 16S) and analyse them through probabilistic criteria to provide the first total evidence phylogeny of Luciuranus. We show that the acquisition of the abdominal modifications in Luciuranus was stepwise, becoming increasingly more complex. Moreover, maximum likelihood‐based ancestral state reconstructions show that male terminalia co‐evolved with female abdominal morphology in Luciuranus. Given the total allopatry among species, it is likely that lineage‐specific sexual selection on mating behaviour, instead of hybrid avoidance through natural selection, has shaped the unique abdominal morphologies of Luciuranus species.

Clinical, Laboratory and Radiological Features of Paragonimiasis Misdiagnosed as Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

Paragonimiasis presents with nonspecific symptoms and radiologic findings, allowing for the possibility of misdiagnosis. Diagnosis is generally delayed due to lack of suspicion and presentation similar to pulmonary tuberculosis. A prospective observational study was carried out on 20 subjects at Civil Service Hospital of Nepal from March 2015 to June 2019 who presented with eosinophilia and pulmonary symptoms, and were treated empirically with Anti-tubercular therapy for suspicion of pulmonary tuberculosis. The median age of the patient was 34 years. Mean blood absolute eosinophil count was 16678/ul. Fever was present in 80% (n=16). Cough was present in 90% (n=18). Pleural effusion was noticed in 100% (n=20). Chest computed tomography showed ground-glass opacities in 65% (n=13) of patients. Pleural fluid eosinophilia (>10%) was evident in all patients. Pleural fluid LDH was elevated in 85% (n=17) of patients. Similarly, ADA was high (>40U) in 75% (n= 15) of patients, and pleural fluid sugar was low in 80% (n=16) of patients. All patients (100%) gave a history of crab or snail consumption. Paragonimus egg was detected in five (25%) patients. Twenty patients fulfilled definite or probable diagnostic criteria of paragonimiasis. Ninety-five (n=19) patients responded to praziquantel. Unavailability of serologic tests or failure to demonstrate parasitic egg under the microscope should not discourage physicians to consider the diagnosis of paragonimiasis when marked eosinophilia, high LDH levels, and low glucose levels are identified in pleural fluid of a patient with a history of raw crab or snail consumption.

Evaluation of sampling techniques for probabilistic structural integrity assessment of steam generator tubing

Steam generator (SG) tubes for nuclear rectors serve as both pressure and containment boundaries. Rupture of a SG tube is considered a significant event from the perspective of safety and potential for release of radiation. Therefore, SG tubes are designed and operated at high reliability to maintain the pressure boundary's structural integrity. Whereas probabilistic approaches become more widely used in the operational assessment to adequately account for uncertainties from various sources, the high reliability level exerts a high demand for computational efforts, which sometimes may be beyond present computational capabilities. Using the crude Monte Carlo simulation as the baseline approach, this paper investigates several variance reduction techniques that reduce the computational effort for the desired small failure probability of a SG tube rupture. It is shown that Latin hypercubic sampling, directional simulation and subset simulation can improve the accuracy of the failure probability estimate, and directional simulation can improve both accuracy and efficiency dramatically. The probabilistic operational assessment of a specific example shows the calculated failure frequency satisfies the probabilistic structural integrity performance criteria (SIPC) under the normal operating condition, which is consistent with the results when deterministic SIPC is applied.

A new approach to constructing confidence intervals for population means based on small samples.

This paper presents a new approach to constructing the confidence interval for the mean value of a population when the distribution is unknown and the sample size is small, called the Percentile Data Construction Method (PDCM). A simulation was conducted to compare the performance of the PDCM confidence interval with those generated by the Percentile Bootstrap (PB) and Normal Theory (NT) methods. Both the convergence probability and average interval width criterion are considered when seeking to find the best interval. The results show that the PDCM outperforms both the PB and NT methods when the sample size is less than 30 or a large population variance exists.

Impact of copula model selection on reliability-based design optimization of a rubble mound breakwater

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is one of the most well-known methods to deal with uncertainties in the design methods. There are still challenges with the application of RBDO in the design of coastal structures, such as data adequacy, computational cost, and the correlation between environmental variables. The current study aims at addressing these items and bringing insights into the correlated design. In this regard, a step has been taken forward, and the RBDO of a rubble mound breakwater has been performed by considering the correlation among significant wave height, wave period and water level. Four different copulas are considered: Independence, the Gaussian, the Drawable Vine dependence, and the Gumbel. The expected lifetime costs for the independence, the Gaussian, and the Gumbel dependence cases are 9.32%, 5.70%, and 3.12% lower than that of the D-vine case. The results indicate that considering a suitable vine structure, the optimal solutions of the Independence, the Gaussian, and the Gumbel copulas are not reliable. While without considering this dependence structure, the obtained designs have met the probabilistic criterion. This is a novel and crucial outcome and highlights the significance of the proper selection of dependence structure on the reliable design of marine structures.

A joint weighted power detector for Willie in two‐hop covert communication system

This letter proposes a joint weighted power detector based on maximum a posteriori probability criterion for Willie aiming at two-hop covert communication scenario, which is a near optimal detector. Instead of only supervising one single phase, Willie combines the observations of two phases to make joint decision in the proposed scheme. The proposed scheme achieves lower probability of detection error than adding-power-directly-detector scheme and the existing single-phase-detector scheme due to sufficient utilization of the two-phase observations. Numerical results demonstrate the benefit of authors' proposed scheme.

Improved design criteria for nonwoven geotextile filters with internally stable and unstable soils

In geotextile filtration, the soil fines are either accumulated near the interface, clogged, or washed out, which primarily depends on the grain size distribution (GSD) of soil and the constriction size distribution (CSD) of geotextile. Also, the movement of fines significantly affects the flow capacity of geotextile. Currently, the retention requirement is satisfied based on representative grain and opening sizes, whereas the hydraulic conductivity and clogging requirements are satisfied considering the properties of virgin geotextile. This paper presents a probabilistic retention criterion considering the grain and constriction sizes as random variables. The influence of geotextile thickness is incorporated into the criterion by considering the number of geotextile constrictions in a filtration path. A theoretical approach to predict CSD is presented if the measured data is unavailable. For hydraulic conductivity and clogging requirements, a criterion is presented considering the expected partial clogging of geotextile, which is predicted based on the semi-analytical approach. The limit states for the developed criteria are evaluated based on the wide range of experimental data from the current study and published literature. The developed design criteria are applicable to internally stable and unstable soils, which offers an improvement in design compared to the existing criteria in practice.

CFRP strengthening of fatigue cracks at U-rib to diaphragm welds in orthotropic steel bridge decks: Experimental study, optimization, and decision-making

This paper investigated fatigue strengthening of U-rib to diaphragm welds in orthotropic steel bridge decks (OSDs) using the carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP). Fatigue testing and CFRP strengthening were performed on a full-scale OSD specimen with several U-rib to diaphragm welds. A strengthening configuration was proposed during the experiment. The testing results show that the attachment of CFRP plates on the cracked U-rib wall performed well in reducing both the local fatigue stresses and the average crack growth rate. Then, a multi-objective optimization and decision-making framework was proposed to realize the optimum design of the strengthening configuration. Considered the critical factors to the strengthening efficiency and cost, the material elastic moduli, CFRP size, and strengthening timing were chosen as design variables while maximizing the strengthened fatigue performance and minimizing the total cost were together regarded as the optimization targets. Considering the uncertainty of macrocrack propagation, Monte Carlo Simulation was used to predict the lifecycle fatigue life distribution. Then, a probabilistic assessment criterion for the strengthed fatigue performance was derived by theoretical derivation. Repeated numerical simulations were conducted to obtain the strengthened stress intensity factors using a multi-scale OSD model. Based on these simulated data, a surrogate model of the optimization objective was developed by Response Surface Methodology, which successfully considered the interaction effects between multiple design variables. Finally, the optimum CFRP strengthening configurations were derived by genetic algorithm and multi-attribute decision-making. This study is convinced to not only advance our understanding of CFRP strengthening of U-rib to diaphragm welded joints but also facilitate the optimum application of CFRP material in maintaining deteriorating steel structures.

Accurate Extraction of Ground Objects from Remote Sensing Image Based on Mark Clustering Point Process

The geometric features of ground objects can reflect the shape, contour, length, width, and pixel distribution of ground objects and have important applications in the process of object detection and recognition. However, the geometric features of objects usually present irregular geometric shapes. In order to fit the irregular geometry accurately, this paper proposes the mark clustering point process. Firstly, the random points in the parent process are used to determine the location of the ground object, and the irregular graph constructed by the clustering points in the sub-process is used as the identification to fit the geometry of the ground object. Secondly, assuming that the spectral measurement values of ground objects obey the independent and unified multivalued Gaussian distribution, the spectral measurement model of remote sensing image data is constructed. Then, the geometric extraction model of the ground object is constructed under the framework of Bayesian theory and combined with the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to simulate the posterior distribution and estimate the parameters. Finally, the optimal object extraction model is solved according to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) probability criterion. This paper experiments on color remote sensing images. The experimental results show that the proposed method can not only determine the position of the object but also fit the geometric features of the object accurately.

Probabilistic operational planning using dynamic programming with time-domain simulations

A dynamic programming model with time-domain simulations of contingencies is created to find the least-costly operational strategies according to a probabilistic operational criterion with selected preventive and corrective actions. The results show that the operational model can identify strategies which appear to be satisfactory according to a static analysis, but where the system response in the time-domain is violating the systems operational requirements. The model calculates the costs related to many possible operating strategies compared to models which only search parts of the solution space. This can be useful for TSOs that want to use the model for decision support. However, computational times are very limiting due to the time-domain simulations. Consequently, approaches for limiting the number of scenarios or speeding up the time-domain simulations should be investigated.

Prevalence and Correlates of Mental Health Symptoms and Well-Being Among Elite Sport Coaches and High-Performance Support Staff

BackgroundThere is growing understanding of mental health needs in elite athletes, but less is known about the mental health of coaches and support staff who work within elite sport settings. This study examined the prevalence and correlates of mental health symptoms in elite-level coaches and high-performance support staff (HPSS) and compared rates against published elite athlete samples. A cross-sectional, anonymous, online survey was administered to coaches and HPSS working in Australia’s high-performance sports system. Main outcomes were scores on validated measures of psychological distress, probable ‘caseness’ for a diagnosable psychological condition, alcohol consumption and sleep disturbance.ResultsData were provided by 78 coaches (mean age = 46.4 years, 23.8% female) and 174 HPSS (mean age = 40.0 years, 56.7% female). Overall, 41.2% of the sample met probable caseness criteria, 13.9% reported high to very high psychological distress, 41.8% reported potential risky alcohol consumption and 17.7% reported moderate to severe sleep disturbance, with no statistically significant differences between coaches and HPSS. The most robust correlates of psychological distress and probable caseness were dissatisfaction with social support and dissatisfaction with life balance, while poor life balance was also associated with increased alcohol consumption and poor social support with sleep disturbance. Coaches and HPSS reported similar prevalence of mental health outcomes compared to rates previously observed in elite athletes, with the exception of higher reporting of alcohol consumption among coaches and HPSS.ConclusionsElite-level coaches and HPSS reported levels of psychological distress and probable caseness similar to those previously reported among elite-level athletes, suggesting that these groups are also susceptible to the pressures of high-performance sporting environments. Screening for mental health symptoms in elite sport should be extended from athletes to all key stakeholders in the daily training environment, as should access to programs to support mental health and well-being.

Use Risk Score Method to Identify the Qualitative Risk Analysis Criteria in Tendering Phase in Construction Projects

The purpose of this article was to identify and assess the importance of risk factors in the tendering phase of construction projects. The construction project cannot succeed without the identification and categorization of these risk elements. In this article, a questionnaire for likelihood and impact was designed and distributed to a panel of specialists to analyze risk factors. The risk matrix was also used to research, explore, and identify the risks that influence the tendering phase of construction projects. The probability and impact values assigned to risk are used to calculate the risk's score. A risk matrix is created by combining probability and impact criteria. To determine the main risk elements for the tender phase of a construction project, this study constructed the matrix of probability and impact variables and put the periods based on the risk score. Finally, this study identified a fourth main risk group and twenty-two sub-risk factors that are appropriate for the tendering phase of construction projects in Iraq

Stochastic Fractal Search Algorithm Improved with Opposition-Based Learning for Solving the Substitution Box Design Problem

The main component of a cryptographic system that allows us to ensure its strength against attacks, is the substitution box. The strength of this component can be validated by various metrics, one of them being the nonlinearity. To this end, it is essential to develop a design for substitution boxes that allows us to guarantee compliance with this metric. In this work, we implemented a hybrid between the stochastic fractal search algorithm in conjunction with opposition-based learning. This design is supported by sequential model algorithm configuration for the proper parameters configuration. We obtained substitution boxes of high nonlinearity in comparison with other works based on metaheuristics and chaotic schemes. The proposed substitution box is evaluated using bijectivity, the strict avalanche criterion, nonlinearity, linear probability, differential probability and bit-independence criterion, which demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed approach.

Letters to the Editor

Software Safety vs Software Reliability
 While looking back through Vol. 56, No. 1 (Summer 2020) of Journal of System Safety, I finally took the time to read Nathaniel Ozarin’s article “Lessons Learned in a Complex Software Safety Program.” The article is quite interesting and thought provoking, comparing what actually occurs while implementing a system safety program to the idealized descriptions found in documents such as MIL-STD-882, JSSSEH and AOP-52. While I found the article interesting and informative, I noted that the author consistently characterizes the “software safety problem” as a “reliability” problem, focused on finding and preventing “failures” and ensuring high “reliability.”
 Some Thoughts on the Probabilistic Criteria for Ensuring Safe Airplane-System Designs
 We have been employed in the risk sciences for a total of 86 years, including 62 years in reliability engineering and safety engineering positions at The Boeing Company. For many of those years, Yellman was the designated “Risk-Analysis Focal” (person) for Boeing’s 707, 727, 737 and 757 airplane models. For several decades, the United States government has published the same criteria, created by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), intended to ensure that the systems on large (transport-category) aircraft have been designed to be safe [Refs. 1 and 2]. But we believe that the criteria have failed to prevent certain aircraft accidents, and we think that the reasons for that should be better understood. We hope that this discussion will contribute to a better understanding by examining the part potentially played in those accidents by the FAA’s criteria that are defined probabilistically.

The Conjoint Family Drawing: A Tool to Explore About Family Relationships.

In this article we will present the Conjoint Family Drawing, a graphic-interactive tool developed to evaluate family relationships. This tool allows an analytical and clinical evaluation of families and their relationships while facilitating the understanding of the overall family functioning through a synthetic coding system which distinguishes families from each other. First of all, a presentation of the analytical coding system is provided; such system consists of a grid, formed by two distinct levels of observation: the analysis of the product, which, in turn focuses on two levels, the global-familiar one (given by the overall drawing) and the individual one (given the individual members’ drawings), and the analysis of the drawing process (what happens during the realization of the drawing), which is made up of the observations of family interactions at the individual and group level. Consistently with our objectives and the theoretical and methodological literature on family drawing in its various forms and ways of implementation, 10 indicators for product analysis and 9 indicators for process analysis have been identified. A sample of 117 Conjoint Family Drawings was analyzed in order to verify the coding system’s applicability and effectiveness. The sample was constituted according to a convenience (not probabilistic) criterion. Following, a computing system was developed to allow the investigation of the overall family functioning through three steps: (1) the analysis of the frequency distribution of each indicator, in order to verify the non-determinability rates and the distribution of the different answer options; (2) a two-step cluster analysis, to determine homogeneous groups of Conjoint Family Drawings and identify, within each cluster (and comparatively between the clusters), the indicators and answer modalities that mostly affect the clusters’ aggregation itself; (3) the development of a synthetic system to code the Conjoint Family Drawing, beginning with the indicators that define the typological profiles of the clusters obtained. The synthetic system was developed through a summative and logical-combinatorial method, merging the most discriminating and clinically significant coding items, that is, those that are best associable to specific ways of family functioning. Seven family types emerged from these analyses: families characterized by optimal functioning, families characterized by adequate functioning, families characterized by chaotic functioning, families characterized by fragile paternity, families characterized by separate functioning, families with multiproblematic functioning and residual families. The characteristics of these family types will be outlined in this article.

Multivariate return period for different types of flooding in city of Monza, Italy

The return period is a probabilistic criterion used to measure and communicate the random occurrence of geophysical events such as floods in risk assessment studies. Since an individual risk may be strongly affected by the degree of dependence amongst all risks, the need for the provision of multivariate design quantiles has gained ground. Consequently, several recent studies have focused on estimation of multi-hazard risk resulted from different hazard types. In this study, multi-hazard return periods are derived for riverine and pluvial floods in city of Monza, Italy, based on different copula dependence structures. It is shown that ignoring statistical dependence among different inter-correlated hazards may cause significant misestimation of risks.

Examination of a Hazardous Waste Disposal Plant in the Context of Occupational Health and Safety

It is required to determine the factors that are dangerous in terms of occupational health and safety in hazardous waste disposal facilities, which is an area where multidisciplinary work is required. It is also needed to find solutions for preventing risks that may cause. In this study; probability, severity and frequency criteria were used as decision criteria and the importance weights of these criteria were determined with fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Then, 46 risks identified for the five main processes such as entry of waste to the plant, waste analysis, intermediate storage of hazardous waste, disposal of hazardous waste, and auxiliary facilities; were evaluated by fuzzy TOPSIS method according to decision criteria and prioritized according to their level. It is found that the highest priority risks for all sub-process are “fire and explosion”.

P.112 Clinical and Electrophysiological characteristics of anti-nodal/paranodal antibodies in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy patients

Background: CIDP is an autoimmune polyneuropathy. Antibodies against the Node of Ranvier have been described, NF155,NF140/186 and contactin-1. Methods: A retrospective review of patients with CIDP who tested positive for antinodal/paranodal antibodies via Western blot were evaluated. We have included 20 sero-negative CIDP patients. All patients met definite or probable EFNS criteria. clinical, electrophysiological data and response to treatment were obtained. Results: Forty-five patients tested positive for the antibodies. Sixteen were positive for NF155,11 for NF140, 5 for CNTN1,11 were double positive for NF155 and NF140, and 3 were triple positive for NF155, NF140 and CNTN. Age of onset was similar in both seronegative (53.9 ± 3.1 yrs.) versus seropositive(52.3 ± 2.4 yrs.).Chronic presentation manifested in 85% of seronegative, 80% of seropositivepatients.Intrestingly,all triple-positive patients presented with a more acute presentation(i.e,<8 wks.)7/20 seronegative (35%),1/16 NF155, 6/11 NF140,1/5 contactin, 2/11 of doublepositive, 3/3 of triple-positive (28%,13/46) responded to IVIg. Conclusions: No major clinical or electrophysiological differences between groups. triple-positive patients showed 100% response to IVIg.These results cast doubt on the specificity of the Western blot as a clinico-electrophysiologic discriminator. Future testing with cellbased assays will likely provide a robust measure that will guide treatment decision.

The association between single nucleotide polymorphisms and ovarian cancer risk: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

The relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk remains controversial. This systematic review and network meta-analysis was aimed to determine the association between SNPs and OC risk. Several databases (PubMed, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang databases, China Science and Technology Journal Database, and China Biology Medicine disc) were searched to summarize the association between SNPs and OC published throughout April 2021. Direct meta-analysis was used to identify SNPs that could predict the incidence of OC. Ranking probability resulting from network meta-analysis and the Thakkinstian's algorithm was used to select the most appropriate gene model. The false positive report probability (FPRP) and Venice criteria were further tested for credible relationships. Subgroup analysis was also carried out to explore whether there are racial differences. A total of 63 genes and 92 SNPs were included in our study after careful consideration. Fok1 rs2228570 is likely a dominant risk factor for the development of OC compared to other selected genes. The dominant gene model of Fok1 rs2228570 (pooled OR=1.158, 95% CI: 1.068-1.256) was determined to be the most suitable model with a FPRP <0.2 and moderate credibility. Fok1 rs2228570 is closely linked to OC risk, and the dominant gene model is likely the most appropriate model for estimating OC susceptibility.